One year on, how’s Keir Starmer’s government going? We’ve put together an end-of-term report with the help of pollster YouGov.

First, here are the government’s approval ratings – drifting downwards.

It didn’t start particularly high. There has never been a honeymoon.

But here is the big change. Last year’s Labour voters now disapprove of their own government. That wasn’t true at the start – but is now.

And remember, it’s easier to keep your existing voter coalition together than to get new ones from elsewhere.

So we have looked at where voters who backed Labour last year have gone now.

YouGov’s last mega poll shows half of Labour voters last year – 51% – say they would vote for them again if an election was held tomorrow.

Around one in five (19%) say they don’t know who they’d vote for – or wouldn’t vote.

But Labour are also leaking votes to the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform.

These are the main reasons why.

A sense that Labour haven’t delivered on their promises is top – just above the cost of living. Some 22% say they’ve been too right-wing, with a similar number saying Labour have “made no difference”. Immigration and public services are also up there.

Now, YouGov asked people whether they think the cabinet is doing a good or a bad job, and combined the two figures together to get a net score.

John Healey and Bridget Phillipson are on top, but the big beats of Angela Rayner, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves bottom.

But it’s not over for Labour.

Here’s one scenario – 2024 Labour voters say they would much prefer a Labour-led government over a Conservative one.

But what about a Reform UK-led government? Well, Labour polls even better against them – just 11% of people who voted Labour in 2024 want to see them enter Number 10.

Signs of hope for Keir Starmer. But as Labour MPs head off for their summer holidays, few of their voters would give this government an A*.

In Altrincham near Manchester, two opposing groups have gathered to throw insults at each other across the A56.

“Fascists! Racists!” shouts one lot.

On the opposing verge, they shout back: “Shame on you!”

Then both sides chant: “Whose streets? Our streets!”

Cars flash between them, some adding hoots to the noise.

It’s 5pm on Sunday and much of the nation is united watching the Lionesses in the Euro finals.

Yet here is a dual carriageway of division formed in front of what has become a beacon for unrest – a hotel housing asylum seekers.

Sky News has been testing the mood in Altrincham since locals were first informed last November that the Cresta Court Hotel was being repurposed from accommodating short business stays and local events into lodgings for hundreds of male asylum seekers who crossed the Channel on small boats.

Over the course of eight months there have been angry town meetings, regular low-level protests and last Sunday around 80 people from each side turned up outside the hotel with banners, flags and loudspeakers.

“We stopped the Germans, why can’t we stop dinghies,” says local man Dave Haydock under a St George’s cross cap.

“We’re paying for them to be in there and there’s British people out on the streets,” added local businessman Steve, who is waving a Union Flag. “They’re not fleeing a war to come to Britain – they’re coming from France – they are coming because of all the benefits – and everyone in the UK now knows that.”

Cost, benefits and risk to women are recurring themes.

“These people coming over without any documentation,” says local Clare Jones as she points in the direction of two schools. “I’m not a racist. I’m just a concerned mum. I don’t feel safe in my own community.”

A man behind a mask who didn’t want to appear on camera says the media “sneers” at these protests because the media is middle class and “this is a working-class movement”.

Altrincham is one of Manchester’s most affluent towns, but there are much poorer areas close by.

The social demographic at the protests was mixed.

On either side of the A56 I met business owners, nurses, teachers and pensioners.

Both groups were also largely made up of locals.

Read more:
Protest outside hotel housing asylum seekers was peaceful. Suddenly, it all changed
Home Office threatens asylum seekers with homelessness

A handful of social media “professional” protesters also turned up, pointing cameras at anything they could film – making selfie videos for their TikTok and YouTube followers.

A small line of police officers was in place to keep the peace.

The counter-protesters forming a line to protect the hotel. Described as “lefties” by the anti-migrant demonstrators, the counter-protesters feel that the people opposite are either “far right, fascists” or “being manipulated by the far right”.

Altrincham resident Alison O’Connell said “this is very frightening” as she pointed at the anti-migrant demonstrators. “We are just here to show support for the refugees in the hotel,” she added.

Counter-protester Steph Phoenix said: “Knowing personally people in the hotels, I know they are not coming for our money. These people are desperate. They don’t come over for a laugh, they are coming over because they are escaping something terrible in their own country.”

Nahella Ashraf, co-chair of Greater Manchester Stand Up To Racism, said: “There needs to be an honest conversation about what the problems are in society. Refugees are not to blame. People are worried about the cost of living crisis, but it’s not caused by refugees. By housing people in these hotels, we’ve not taken accommodation away from anyone in Britain.”

Migrants disappeared into their rooms during the protest, some peering out of their bedroom windows.

Their voices are rarely heard in this debate.

The next day, hotel security advised them not to talk to us.

Those we did speak to all had stories of fleeing instability and threat. Some had just arrived, others had been here months.

Many were anxious about the protests, but equally not put off from their decision to come.

One said he had recently told a local who had been abusive: “I struggled to get here. It was just luck you were born here.”

The fears of increased crime expressed by residents in November don’t appear to have transpired. But Conservative councillor Nathan Evans, who called the first town meeting, says groups of men in the park, men praying in the public library and warning letters from schools to parents about groups of men near the school gates have all caused “an unease across the town”. He says he has warned the police of a “simmering issue”.

Protesters on either side don’t agree on much but both see the hotel as a symbol of broken promises from successive governments – a failure to manage migration in a way that doesn’t inflame communities. What remains is anger.

Managing and containing that anger is a growing challenge.

Gary Neville has criticised the government’s national insurance (NI) rise this year, saying it could deter companies from employing people and “probably could have been held back”.

The former Manchester United and England footballer-turned business owner, who vocally supported Labour at the last election, employs hundreds of people.

But he expressed his frustration at the recent hike on employers’ NI, which has significantly increased the taxes businesses have to pay for their employees.

Speaking to Sky News’ Business Live, Neville said: “I honestly don’t believe that, to be fair, companies and small businesses should be deterred from employing people. So, I think the national insurance rise was one that I feel probably could have been held back, particularly in terms of the way in which the economy was.”

While the Sky Sports pundit thought the minimum wage increase introduced at the same time was necessary to ensure that people are paid a fair wage and looked after, he made it clear the double whammy for businesses at the start of April would be a challenge for many companies big and small.

“I mean look it’s been a tough economy now for a good few years and I did think that once there was a change of government, and once there was some stability, that we would get something settling,” he said. “But it’s not settling locally in our country, but it is not settling actually, to be fair, in many places in the world either.

“I don’t think we can ever criticise the government for increasing the minimum wage. I honestly believe that people, to be fair, should be paid more so I don’t think that’s something that you can be critical of. I do think that the national insurance rise, though, was a challenge.”

Read more:
The industries hit hardest by national insurance hike
Survival guide: How to offset national insurance contributions hike

Neville’s business interests are diverse, spanning property development, hospitality, media, and sports.

He co-founded GG Hospitality, which owns Hotel Football and the Stock Exchange Hotel, and is involved in Relentless Developments, focusing on building projects in the North West. He is also a co-founder of Buzz 16, a production company, and a partner in The Consello Group, a financial services company.

The tax increase is expected to raise £25bn for the Treasury, with employers having to pay NI at 15% on salaries above £5,000, and up to 13.8% on salaries above £9,100.

The rise has already led the Bank of England to warn that it is contributing to a job market slowdown.

Governor Andrew Bailey warned last month that “the labour market has been very tight in the past few years, but we are now seeing signs that conditions are easing, employment growth is subdued, and several indicators of labour demand and hiring intentions have softened”.

The government has defended the tax increase, announced by Rachel Reeves in last year’s budget and implemented in April, arguing that the money was needed to pay for public services like the NHS to help bring down waiting lists.

‘Can’t get any worse’ for Man Utd

Neville conceded that turning beleaguered football club Manchester United around could prove more difficult than trying to bring about substantial economic growth.

The side finished 15th last season – its worst performance in the history of the Premier League.

“Yeah, that could be a bigger challenge than the economy… I think the two signings are good signings yet, there’s a couple more needed,” Neville said of his former club’s fortunes.

“I think they need a goalkeeper. And I think if they fill those two positions with decent signings, then United can have a lot, I mean, they have to have a better season than last year. It can’t get any worse, really.”