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Rents will continue to rise as more people enter the rental market with fewer properties to choose from, the professional body for surveyors has said.

Demand for rental properties rose “firmly” over the three months to July, according to research from property professionals, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), marking the strongest quarterly pick up in demand since the start of last year.

At the same time, most surveyors said instructions from landlords further decreased, resulting in an imbalance of demand and supply.

The majority (63%) of the surveyor respondents to the RICS residential market survey expect rents to go up again in the coming three months.

Such a high percentage expecting an increase is a fresh record high with data going back to 1999.

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Renters are becoming more vulnerable to interest rate rises than mortgage-holders

Tenant demand had already reached a five-month high amid a “frenzied” lettings market back in April.

Rents are now reaching an affordability “tipping point” with no sign of them reducing any time soon, one respondent said.

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Analysis from Sky News showed renters are now in the majority in the UK, with people owning their home outright the second largest group, followed by mortgage holders in the minority.

“Demand shows no signs of letting up, supply remains constrained and that means rents are likely to continue rising sharply despite the cost of living crisis,” RICS chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn, said.

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Squeeze on renters is symptom of Britain’s housing crisis

Interest in buying property fell, the survey showed, as 44% of respondents noted a decline in agreed sales during July, the weakest reading for the sales measure since the early stages of the pandemic.

Instructions to sell homes also fell, despite mortgage bills becoming more expensive for many due to Bank of England rate hikes to reduce inflation.

The average rate on two and five-year fixed deals has surpassed 6% with an estimated 2.4 million mortgage holders needing to fix a new deal by the end of 2024, according to UK Finance, the banking industry trade body.

House prices have been falling as mortgage rates have risen and housebuilding activity has slowed.

The effects of that fall were seen when major UK homebuilder Bellway announced plans to cut jobs and close sites.

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Government considering measure to slash industrial energy prices

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Government considering measure to slash industrial energy prices

Ministers are considering a commitment to cut soaring industrial energy prices for British companies to the same level enjoyed by competitors in France and Germany as part of its industrial strategy.

Sky News understands proposals to make energy prices more competitive are at the heart of final discussions between the Department for Business and Trade and the Treasury ahead of the publication of its industrial strategy on Monday.

Industrial electricity prices in the UK are the highest in the G7 and 46% above the median for the 32 member states of the International Energy Agency, which account for 75% of global demand.

Industrial electricity prices by country
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Industrial electricity prices by country

In 2023, British businesses paid £258 per megawatt-hour for electricity compared to £178 in France and £177 in Germany, according to IEA data. Matching those prices will require a reduction of around 27% at a cost of several billion pounds.

Money blog: Interest rate held – but Bank of England gave ‘small surprise’

Earlier this month, automotive giant Nissan said UK energy prices make its Sunderland plant its most expensive in the world.

Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds is understood to be sympathetic to business concerns, and chancellor Rachel Reeves told the CBI’s annual dinner the issue of energy prices “is a question we know we need to answer”.

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Extending relief

While around 350 companies in energy-intensive industries, including steel, ceramics and cement, enjoy some relief from prices through the energy supercharger scheme, which refunds 60% of network charges and is expected to rise to 90%, there is currently no support for manufacturers.

Sky News understands ministers are considering introducing a similar scheme to support the 200,000 manufacturing businesses in the UK.

Cutting network costs entirely could save more than 20% from electricity prices.

Explainer: Why are UK industrial electricity prices so high?

The mechanism for delivering support is expected to require consultation before being introduced to ensure only businesses for whom energy is a central cost would benefit. This could be based on the proportion of outgoings spent on energy bills.

It is not clear how the scheme would be funded, but the existing industrial supercharger is paid for by a levy on energy suppliers that is ultimately passed on to customers.

A central demand

Bringing down prices, particularly for electricity, has been the central demand of business and industry groups, with Make UK warning high prices are rendering businesses uncompetitive and risk “deindustrialising” the UK.

The primary driver of high electricity costs in the UK is wholesale gas, which both underpins the grid and sets the price in the market, even in periods when renewables provide the majority of supply.

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Why are costs so high?

Wholesale prices account for around 39% of bills, with operating costs and network charges – the cost of using and maintaining the grid – making up another 25%, and VAT 20%.

Business groups, including the manufacturers group Make UK, have called for a reduction in those additional charges, as well as the so-called policy costs that make up the final 16% of bills.

UK industrial electricity prices
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UK industrial electricity prices

These are made up of levies and charges introduced by successive governments to encourage and underwrite the construction of renewable sources of power.

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Make UK estimate that shifting policy costs into general taxation would cost around £3.8bn, but pay for itself over time in increased growth.

Government sources confirmed that energy prices are a central issue that the industrial strategy will address, but said no final policy decisions have been agreed.

The industrial strategy, which is delayed from its scheduled publication earlier this month, will set out the government’s plans to support eight sectors identified as having high-growth potential, including advanced manufacturing, life sciences, defence and creative industries.

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Why are UK industrial electricity prices so high – and what can be done about it?

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Why are UK industrial electricity prices so high - and what can be done about it?

Britain has the highest industrial electricity prices in the G7, a cost businesses say makes it impossible to compete internationally and risks “deindustrialising” the UK.

Electricity prices are driven by wholesale fuel prices, particularly natural gas, but include taxes and “policy costs” that business groups, including Make UK and the CBI, want the government to cut.

Sky News understands the issue is a “live discussion” within government as ministers finalise the government’s industrial strategy, due to be published next week.

Money blog: Interest rate held – but Bank of England gave ‘small surprise’

So what are the options, and why are prices so high in the first place?

How much does UK business pay for electricity?

Industrial electricity prices in 2023 were 46% higher than the average of the 32 members of the International Energy Agency, a group that includes EU and G7 nations that, between them, account for 75% of global demand.

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UK businesses paid an average of £258 per megawatt-hour, according to IEA data – higher than Italy (£218), France (£178) and Germany (£177), and more than four times the £65 paid on average in the USA.

While wholesale prices have been driven up in the last five years by external factors including post-pandemic demand and the Ukraine war, this is not a blip – UK prices have been consistently above the IEA average for decades.

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Britain’s big energy price problem

Why are prices so high?

The main determinant is exposure to wholesale gas markets. Gas underpins the UK grid, reliably filling the gaps renewables and nuclear sources cannot fill. Crucially, gas also sets the price in the electricity market even when it is not the primary source of energy.

The UK market uses a “marginal pricing system”, in which the price is set by the last, and thus most expensive, unit of power required to meet demand at any one time.

That means that while renewable sources, initially offered at a cheaper price, may provide the majority of power in a given period, the price for all sources is set by gas-fired power stations providing the balance of supply.

Industrial electricity bills are lower in markets that are less exposed to gas. In France, gas sets the price less than 10% of the time because its fleet of nuclear power stations underpin supply.

Industrial electricity prices by country
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Industrial electricity prices by country

What makes up electricity bills?

The biggest single element of electricity prices is wholesale gas costs, which make up 39% of the bill, according to industrial supplier SEFE.

The next largest element is “network costs”, charges imposed for using, maintaining and expanding the grid, which account for 23%. Operating costs are 2%, with VAT adding a further 20%.

The remaining 16% of electricity bills is made up of “policy costs”, levies and payments introduced over the last two decades to subsidise the construction of renewable power capacity, primarily wind power.

UK industrial electricity prices
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Cost breakdown of UK industrial electricity prices

Increasing renewable supply and storage to reduce exposure has been the long-term solution favoured by successive governments. Sir Keir Starmer‘s administration has a target of shifting to a “clean power” grid by 2030 and achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, a target Kemi Badenoch describes as “impossible”.

Read more from Sky News:
Government considering slashing industrial energy prices

Bank of England holds rate
Warm Home Discount extended

Some energy-intensive industries (EII), such as chemicals, steel, and cement, already receive support, with a 60% relief on network charges and a reduction of around 10% from the British Industry Supercharger fund, which the government is considering increasing.

What does business want?

Business groups are calling for these policy costs to be lifted and shifted into general taxation, calculating that a 15% reduction in prices would give them a chance of competing more equitably.

Make UK say cutting policy costs would cut 15% from bills, and is also proposing a “contract for difference” for manufacturers’ electricity, a model borrowed from the renewables market.

Under the plan, the government would guarantee a “strike price” for electricity 10% lower than the wholesale price. When prices are higher, the taxpayer would refund business, and when they are lower, industry would pay back the difference.

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Make UK estimate the cost to the exchequer of £3.8bn. They believe it will be cost-neutral courtesy of increased growth. The alternative, they say, is an uncompetitive manufacturing sector doomed to decline.

“We need to see the government remove those costs in the industrial strategy,” says Make UK chief executive Stephen Phipson.

“We believe it will be cost-neutral because of the benefit to the economy of retaining manufacturing in this country. If we don’t see it happen, we will risk deindustrialising the United Kingdom.”

A government spokesperson said: “Through our sprint to clean power, we will get off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel markets – protecting business and household finances with clean, homegrown energy that we control.”

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Bank of England holds rate but eyes cuts ahead despite global risks

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Bank of England holds rate but eyes cuts ahead despite global risks

The Bank of England has signalled that a weakening labour market could yet trump rising global challenges to allow for more interest rate cuts in the near term.

Policymakers on the nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) voted 7-3 to maintain Bank rate at 4.25%.

There was greater support than was expected for a cut.

The Bank had previously signalled that a majority on the committee were cautious about the effects of global instability – especially the on-off US trade war.

Money latest: What interest rate decision means for your money

But the minutes of the Bank’s meeting showed there was a greater focus on a rising jobless rate and evidence that employers are shedding jobs – indicating it had dominated the meeting.

It acknowledged, however, that there were potential challenges from the on-off US trade war and as a result of the Israel-Iran conflict.

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The barrage of warheads has already resulted in double-digit percentage spikes to oil and natural gas prices in the space of a week.

“Interest rates remain on a gradual downward path,” governor Andrew Bailey said while adding that there was no pre-set path.

“The world is highly unpredictable. In the UK we are seeing signs of softening in the labour market. We will be looking carefully at the extent to which those signs feed through to consumer price inflation,” he added.

The Bank maintained its core message that it would take a “gradual” and “careful” approach.

“Energy prices had risen owing to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The committee would remain vigilant about these developments and their potential impact on the UK economy,” the Bank said.

The rise in the UK’s jobless rate, along with recent data on payrolled employment, has been linked to a business backlash against budget measures, which kicked in in April, that saw employer national insurance contributions and minimum pay demands rise.

While a weaker labour market, including a fall in vacancies, could allow room for the Bank to react through further interest rate cuts, the spectre of war in the Middle East is now clouding its rate judgements.

The last thing borrowers need is an inflation spike.

The UK’s core measure of inflation peaked above 11% in the wake of Russa’s invasion of Ukraine – giving birth to what became known as the cost of living crisis.

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Businesses facing fresh energy cost threat

Inflation across the economy was driven by unprecedented spikes in natural gas costs, which pushed up not only household energy bills to record levels but those for businesses too – with the cost of goods and services reflecting those extra costs.

Borrowing costs have eased, through interest rate cuts, as the pace of price growth has come down.

The rate of inflation currently stands at 3.4% but was already forecast to rise in the second half of the year before the aerial bombardments between Israel and Iran had begun.

LSEG data shortly after the Bank of England minutes were published showed that financial markets were expecting a quarter point cut at the Bank’s next meeting in August and at least one more by the year’s end.

Read more:
Why Middle East conflict poses new cost of living threat

Commenting on the Bank’s remarks Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, said: “Conflict in the Middle East risks higher energy prices potentially pushing inflation higher – though calling the course of events there is almost certainly a mugs game, and the Bank has said that under current conditions it expects inflation to remain broadly at current levels for the rest of the year.

“The risk is that all the uncertainty leaves the Bank paralysed, with rates stuck at their current level,” he concluded.

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