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The next general election is only 17 months away at most. It is already seen as a “change election” – meaning that, on the basis of opinion polls and recent political contests, the party in power is likely to switch.

Conventional wisdom is that the Conservatives will most likely be out after 14 years continuously in power.

That outcome is of course in the lap of the electorate and cannot be taken for granted.

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‘ULEZ is why we lost in Uxbridge’

But it is the basis on which individual MPs make calculations about their futures.

Before any seats change hands, we can already say that there will be at least 75 new faces in the 2024/25 parliament.

That’s because 75 current members have already announced that they are not standing – and more than 50 of them were elected as Conservatives. A further 14 Labour MPs are stepping down, with seven from the SNP.

The overall turnover of MPs will be much larger anyway if is a change election.

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The pollster Frank Luntz recently warned Tory MPs that any of them with a majority less that 15,000 is “at risk”. There are around 180 in that category – half the current parliamentary party.

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Next election ‘not a done deal’

Now is the time when the main parties are choosing the candidates to fight the coming election in the seats they hold, the seats they regard as winnable and the seats viewed as not worth wasting further resources on.

The types of candidate being chosen, especially in their safe or target seats, tells us a lot about what a party will be like in government or in opposition after the next election.

Since becoming Labour leader in 2019, Sir Keir Starmer has devoted more energy to exerting iron discipline on his party after the Jeremy Corbyn years than to developing radical new policies.

True to form, Labour is ahead of the Conservatives in choosing its prospective parliamentary candidate – more than halfway through – with more than 100 of an expected 200 of so new PPCs in place.

Of course, not all of them are first timers. Re-treads include the former Cabinet minister Douglas Alexander, who is hoping to win back East Lothian from the SNP, Anna Turley fighting to regain her Red Wall seat of Redcar and former Wolverhampton MP Emma Reynolds, who is now standing in Wycombe.

These three ex-MPs embody the middle-aged, middle-of-the-road cut of the Labour candidates being selected. Only about one in 20 of them are below the age of 30.

Newly elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club, North Yorkshire, after winning the Selby and Ainsty by-election. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023.
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Newly elected MP Keir Mather with Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner

In spite of the recent by-election victory by the new Baby of the House, Labour’s Keir Mather, parliament is not proving welcoming for younger members. Those standing down include two young MPs who had been picked out as rising stars.

The SNP’s Mhairi Black calls Westminster “toxic”, Bishop Auckland Tory Deheena Davison finds it “unsociable”.

The Labour leadership are ruthlessly weeding out left-wing candidates.

Suspension from the party is the most brutal method. Jeremy Corbyn is no longer a member of Labour so he cannot stand as one of their candidates at the next election. His dwindling band of supporters in the Commons have been carefully biting their tongues to avoid joining him in the reject bin.

Before constituency parties get to vote on their candidate, a panel made up of trusted members of Labour’s National Executive (NEC) and local supporters draws up a “long list”.

As serving Mayor Jamie Driscoll found out to his cost in a similar process to select a candidate for the new mayor of the North East, this is how strong candidates not liked by the leadership can be excluded.

Read more:
Are MPs getting younger?
MPs who have said they are standing down

Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn (right) alongside shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer during a press conference in central London. PA Photo. Picture date: Friday December 6, 2019. See PA story POLITICS Election. Photo credit should read: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire

Mish Rahman, a current member of the NEC supported by Momentum, is a typical example of the sort of PPC that Sir Keir does not want. He was blocked in the highly win-backable seat of Wolverhampton West in spite of being backed by five trade unions. He commented he was not surprised since none of his fellow “Bernie Grant Leadership” alumni have been selected. That programme, in memory of the black far-left Tottenham MP, was set up to promote candidates of his ilk.

Labour’s stand out PPC selection this time round typifies the change of mood. Charlie Falconer had to be sent to the House of Lords to serve in the Blair government. He refused to take his children out of private school and no constituency would have him.

Now the product of that public school education, his son Hamish Falconer – a well-regarded diplomat in his own right – has been selected as Labour candidate in marginal Lincoln.

Sir Keir Starmer and his closest aides – including Morgan MacSweeney, Matthew Faulding, Carol Linforth, David Evans and Marianna McFadden – are right to be careful.

Their opponents will target candidates with “extremist” skeletons in their closet.

Nadine Dorries has not yet stood down as promised to trigger the by-election in her Mid Bedfordshire constituency.

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Dorries ‘can stay in the jungle’

The Daily Mail has already exposed Labour’s clean-cut candidate Alistair Strathern for taking part in a Greenpeace protest at the Home Office, dressed as a zombie.

A few places demand a high-profile and colourful candidate. The retiring Green MP Caroline Lucas has made Brighton Pavilion one of those constituencies. The Greens have already chosen Sian Berry, one of their other best-known politicians, to defend it for them.

The comedian Eddie Izzard, who has failed to be selected elsewhere numerous times, has local connections and is fighting hard for the Labour nomination.

The number of LGBT+ MPs now stands at a record 61 and is set to remain strong. Women and ethnic minorities are doing loess well.

Tory strategists at the centre wish they had the same grip on candidate selection as Labour, but they don’t. Just about the leadership’s only success has been blocking any candidacy by the former MEP and the serially disloyal Boris Johnson supporter David Campbell Bannerman.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and newly elected Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell arriving at the Rumbling Tum cafe in Uxbridge, west London, following the party's success in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS ByElections. Photo credit should read: Jordan Pettitt/PA Wire
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Rishi Sunak and newly elected Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell in Uxbridge

After the turmoil of five prime ministers there is no centre, respected by all, to exert control.

PPCs are chosen by constituency associations whose members are the people who voted for Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and did not vote for Rishi Sunak.

The Tory Party factions are fighting out their differences in selections, constituency by constituency.

Unlike Labour they are choosing candidates who appeal to themselves, with little regard to who might attract floating voters in the centre ground.

Tory activists have already picked out two PPCs who they expect will still be battling for the soul of the party in a decades time.

In the One Nation corner stands Rupert Harrison, the PPC for Bicester, an old Etonian and former close aide to chancellor George Osborne. He looks like what Barbie’s Ken would look like were he to be a middle-aged Tory candidate.

The Nativist Brexiteer Corner is occupied by the cerebral and sometimes bearded Nick Timothy, who has taken over in Matt Hancock’s old constituency in Suffolk.

Nick Timothy
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Nick Timothy

Male, middle-aged, middle class, there is a similarity in the profile, if not the politics, of the candidates being chosen by the two main parties.

Both of them now place a premium on the candidate having a local connection.

It is much harder for bright politically ambitious young people to shop around for a seat – even though some of them in the past have proved of prime ministerial calibre – like Churchill or Blair or Johnson.

The ConservativeHome website reports that in 12 winnable target seats, eight of the PPCs were local councillors, two more had local connections and only two were women.

Those following the selections most closely, including the journalist Michael Crick on his @tomorrowsMPs X (formerly Twitter) page and the Professor of Politics Tim Bale, believe that insistence on the local factor is seriously diluting the quality of the people who are becoming MPs.

Whether or not we are heading into a change election, we know already that there will be lots of new faces. They won’t look much different to those they are replacing and it is a fond hope whether they will be any better.

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Labour WhatsApp messages on Supreme Court ruling point to future tensions on trans issues

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Labour WhatsApp messages on Supreme Court ruling point to future tensions on trans issues

It’s no great surprise that members of a Labour MPs’ LGBT+ WhatsApp group would be raising concerns about the impact of this week’s Supreme Court ruling on the trans community.

But the critical contributions reportedly made by some of the group’s higher-profile ministerial members highlight the underlying divisions with the Labour Party over the issue – and point to future tensions once the practical implications of the judgement become clear.

Messages leaked to the Mail on Sunday allegedly include the Home Office minister Dame Angela Eagle writing “the ruling is not as catastrophic at it seems but the EHRC [Equality and Human Rights Commission] guidance might be & there are already signs that some public bodies are overreacting”.

Culture minister Sir Chris Bryant reportedly replied he “agreed” with another MP’s opinion that the EHRC chair Baroness Falkner was “pretty appalling” when she said the ruling would mean trans women could not use single-sex female facilities or compete in women’s sports.

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Gender ruling – How it happened

Government sources argue these messages are hardly evidence of any kind of plot or mass revolt against the Supreme Court’s ruling.

But they still raise uncomfortable questions for a party that has been on a tortuous journey over the issue.

Under Jeremy Corbyn, Labour was committed to introducing self-identification – enabling people to change their legal sex without a medical diagnosis – a position dropped in 2023.

Back in 2021, Sir Keir Stamer said the then Labour MP Rosie Duffield was “not right” to say “only women have a cervix”. But three years later he acknowledged that “biologically, she of course is right”.

Duffield, who now sits as an independent, is asking for an apology – but that doesn’t seem to be forthcoming from a government keen to minimise its own role in changing social attitudes to the issue.

The Conservative position on this has also chopped and changed – with Theresa May‘s support for gender self-ID ditched under Boris Johnson.

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As the Conservatives’ equalities minister, Kemi Badenoch led the UK government’s fight against Scotland’s efforts to make it easier to change gender – and she’s determined to punch Labour’s bruise on the issue.

This weekend, she’s written to the cabinet secretary calling for an investigation into a possible breach of the ministerial or civil service code over a statement made by the Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson in response to the ruling, which said “we have always supported the protection of single-sex spaces based on biological sex”.

The Tories claim this is false, because last summer Ms Phillipson herself gave an interview in which she suggested that trans women with penises could use female toilets.

Ms Phillipson has been approached for a response.

Her comments, however, are entirely in keeping with the government’s official statement on the judgement, which claims they have “always supported the protection of single-sex spaces based on biological sex” and welcomed the ruling as giving “clarity and confidence for women and service providers”.

The government statement added: “Single-sex spaces are protected in law and will always be protected by this government.”

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‘Crypto is not communism’ — Exec slams BIS’ take on crypto

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‘Crypto is not communism’ — Exec slams BIS’ take on crypto

‘Crypto is not communism’ — Exec slams BIS’ take on crypto

The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) push to isolate crypto markets and its controversial recommendations on DeFi and stablecoins is “dangerous” for the entire financial system, warns the head of a blockchain investment firm.

“Many of their recommendations and conclusions — perhaps due to a mix of fear, arrogance, or ignorance — are completely uninformed and, frankly, dangerous,” CoinFund president Christopher Perkins said in an April 19 X post, referring to the BIS’ April 15 report titled “Cryptocurrencies and Decentralized Finance: Functions and Financial Stability Implications.” 

BIS recommendations exposes TradFi to risks of “unimaginable scale”

“Crypto is not communism,” Perkins said, pushing back against the BIS’ call for a “containment” approach to isolate crypto from traditional finance and the broader economy.

“It’s the new internet that provides anyone with a connection access to financial services,” Perkins said. “You cannot control it anymore than you control the internet,” he added.

Perkins warned that a containment approach to crypto would expose the traditional financial system to massive liquidity risks “of unimaginable scale,” especially when the crypto market operates in real-time, 24/7, while traditional financial markets shuts down after trading hours.

“If implemented they will cause–not mitigate–the systemic risk they seek to prevent.”

The report warned that the number of investors and amount of capital in crypto and DeFi have “reached a critical mass,” with investor protection becoming a “significant concern for regulators.”

Cryptocurrencies
Source: Michael Egorov

Perkins pushed back against the BIS’ claim that DeFi presents significant challenges, arguing instead that it represents a “significant improvement” over the “opacity” and imbalances of the traditional financial system.

Related: Crypto industry is not experiencing regulatory capture — Attorney

Responding to the BIS’s concern about the anonymity of DeFi developers, Perkins questioned its relevance:

“Sorry, but when was the last time a TradFi company published a list of its developers? Sure, public companies provide a degree of disclosures and transparency, but they seem to be dying off in favor of private markets.”

Perkins also critiqued the BIS’s concern around stablecoins that it could lead to “macroeconomic instability in countries like Venezuela and Zimbabwe.”

“If there is demand for USD stablecoins and it helps improve the condition of anyone in the developing world, perhaps that is a good thing,” Perkins said.

Cryptocurrencies
Source: Christopher Perkins

Perkins wasn’t alone in criticizing the controversial report. Lightspark co-founder Christian Catalini also weighed in, posting a series of critiques on X that same day. Catalini summed up the report with the analogy:

“Think: writing parking regulations for a fleet of self‑driving drones — earnest work, two technological leaps behind.”

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

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The British economy has lost out – and sucking up to Trump will only get Starmer so far

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The British economy has lost out - and questionable meat and cheese ban is a reminder of why

Unwary travellers returning from the EU risk having their sandwiches and local delicacies, such as cheese, confiscated as they enter the UK.

The luggage in which they are carrying their goodies may also be seized and destroyed – and if Border Force catch them trying to smuggle meat or dairy products without a declaration, they could face criminal charges.

The new jeopardy has come about because last weekend, the government quietly “extended” its “ban on personal meat imports to protect farmers from foot and mouth”.

This may or may not be bureaucratic over-reaction.

It’s certainly just another of the barriers EU and UK authorities are busily throwing up between each other and their citizens – at a time when political leaders keep saying the two sides should be drawing together in the face of Donald Trump’s attacks on European trade and security.

Starmer and Macron meeting at Chequers last month. Pic: Reuters
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Keir Starmer’s been embarking on a reset with European leaders. Pic: Reuters

The ban on bringing back “cattle, sheep, goat, and pig meat, as well as dairy products, from EU countries into Great Britain for personal use” is meant “to protect the health of British livestock, the security of farmers, and the UK’s food security.”

There are bitter memories of previous outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in this country, in 1967 and 2001.

In 2001, there were more than 2,000 confirmed cases of infection resulting in six million sheep and cattle being destroyed. Footpaths were closed across the nation and the general election had to be delayed.

In the EU this year, there have been five cases confirmed in Slovakia and four in Hungary. There was a single outbreak in Germany in January, though Defra, the UK agriculture department, says that’s “no longer significant”.

The UK imposed bans on personal meat and dairy imports from those countries, and Austria, earlier this year.

Authorities carry disinfectant liquid near a farm during an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Dunakiliti, Hungary. Pic: Reuters
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Authorities carry disinfectant near a farm in Dunakiliti, Hungary. Pic: Reuters

Better safe than sorry?

None of the cases of infection are in the three most popular countries for UK visitors – Spain, France, and Italy – now joining the ban. Places from which travellers are most likely to bring back a bit of cheese, salami, or chorizo.

Could the government be putting on a show to farmers that it’s on their side at the price of the public’s inconvenience, when its own measures on inheritance tax and failure to match lost EU subsidies are really doing the farming community harm?

Many will say it’s better to be safe than sorry, but the question remains whether the ban is proportionate or even well targeted on likely sources of infection.

Read more: The products you can’t bring into Britain from the EU

Gourmet artisan chorizo sausages on display on a market stall. File pic: iStock
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No more gourmet chorizo brought back from Spain for you. File pic: iStock

A ‘Brexit benefit’? Don’t be fooled

The EU has already introduced emergency measures to contain the disease where it has been found. Several thousand cattle in Hungary and Slovenia have been vaccinated or destroyed.

The UK’s ability to impose the ban is not “a benefit of Brexit”. Member nations including the UK were perfectly able to ban the movement of animals and animal products during the “mad cow disease” outbreak in the 1990s, much to the annoyance of the British government of the day.

Since leaving the EU, England, Scotland and Wales are no longer under EU veterinary regulation.

Northern Ireland still is because of its open border with the Republic. The latest ban does not cover people coming into Northern Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey, or the Isle of Man.

Rather than introducing further red tape of its own, the British government is supposed to be seeking closer “alignment” with the EU on animal and vegetable trade – SPS or “sanitary and phytosanitary” measures, in the jargon.

Various types of cheese. Pic: iStock
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A ban on cheese? That’s anything but cracking. Pic: iStock

UK can’t shake ties to EU

The reasons for this are obvious and potentially make or break for food producers in this country.

The EU is the recipient of 67% of UK agri-food exports, even though this has declined by more than 5% since Brexit.

The introduction of full, cumbersome, SPS checks has been delayed five times but are due to come in this October. The government estimates the cost to the industry will be £330m, food producers say it will be more like £2bn.

With Brexit, the UK became a “third country” to the EU, just like the US or China or any other nation. The UK’s ties to the European bloc, however, are much greater.

Half of the UK’s imports come from the EU and 41% of its exports go there. The US is the UK’s single largest national trading partner, but still only accounts for around 17% of trade, in or out.

The difference in the statistics for travellers are even starker – 77% of trips abroad from the UK, for business, leisure or personal reasons, are to EU countries. That is 66.7 million visits a year, compared to 4.5 million or 5% to the US.

And that was in 2023, before Donald Trump and JD Vance’s hostile words and actions put foreign visitors off.

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Trump: ‘Europe is free-loading’

More bureaucratic botheration

Meanwhile, the UK and the EU are making travel between them more bothersome for their citizens and businesses.

This October, the EU’s much-delayed EES or Entry Exit System is due to come into force. Every foreigner will be required to provide biometric information – including fingerprints and scans – every time they enter or leave the Schengen area.

From October next year, visitors from countries including the UK will have to be authorised in advance by ETIAS, the European Travel and Authorisation System. Applications will cost seven euros and will be valid for three years.

Since the beginning of this month, European visitors to the UK have been subject to similar reciprocal measures. They must apply for an ETA, an Electronic Travel Authorisation. This lasts for two years or until a passport expires and costs £16.

The days of freedom of movement for people, goods, and services between the UK and its neighbours are long gone.

The British economy has lost out and British citizens and businesses suffer from greater bureaucratic botheration.

Nor has immigration into the UK gone down since leaving the EU. The numbers have actually gone up, with people from Commonwealth countries, including India, Pakistan and Nigeria, more than compensating for EU citizens who used to come and go.

Focaccia sandwiches with prosciutto. Pic: iStock
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Editor’s note: Hands off my focaccia sandwiches with prosciutto! Pic: iStock

Will European reset pay off?

The government is talking loudly about the possible benefits of a trade “deal” with Trump’s America.

Meanwhile, minister Nick Thomas Symonds and the civil servant Mike Ellam are engaged in low-profile negotiations with Europe – which could be of far greater economic and social significance.

The public will have to wait to see what progress is being made at least until the first-ever EU-UK summit, due to take place on 19 May this year.

Hard-pressed British food producers and travellers – not to mention young people shut out of educational opportunities in Europe – can only hope that Sir Keir Starmer considers their interests as positively as he does sucking up to the Trump administration.

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