Adam Boulton: 75 MPs to step down as ‘change election’ looms. Who’s going to replace them?
The next general election is only 17 months away at most. It is already seen as a “change election” – meaning that, on the basis of opinion polls and recent political contests, the party in power is likely to switch.
Conventional wisdom is that the Conservatives will most likely be out after 14 years continuously in power.
That outcome is of course in the lap of the electorate and cannot be taken for granted.
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But it is the basis on which individual MPs make calculations about their futures.
Before any seats change hands, we can already say that there will be at least 75 new faces in the 2024/25 parliament.
That’s because 75 current members have already announced that they are not standing – and more than 50 of them were elected as Conservatives. A further 14 Labour MPs are stepping down, with seven from the SNP.
The overall turnover of MPs will be much larger anyway if is a change election.
The pollster Frank Luntz recently warned Tory MPs that any of them with a majority less that 15,000 is “at risk”. There are around 180 in that category – half the current parliamentary party.
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Now is the time when the main parties are choosing the candidates to fight the coming election in the seats they hold, the seats they regard as winnable and the seats viewed as not worth wasting further resources on.
The types of candidate being chosen, especially in their safe or target seats, tells us a lot about what a party will be like in government or in opposition after the next election.
Since becoming Labour leader in 2019, Sir Keir Starmer has devoted more energy to exerting iron discipline on his party after the Jeremy Corbyn years than to developing radical new policies.
True to form, Labour is ahead of the Conservatives in choosing its prospective parliamentary candidate – more than halfway through – with more than 100 of an expected 200 of so new PPCs in place.
Of course, not all of them are first timers. Re-treads include the former Cabinet minister Douglas Alexander, who is hoping to win back East Lothian from the SNP, Anna Turley fighting to regain her Red Wall seat of Redcar and former Wolverhampton MP Emma Reynolds, who is now standing in Wycombe.
These three ex-MPs embody the middle-aged, middle-of-the-road cut of the Labour candidates being selected. Only about one in 20 of them are below the age of 30.
Newly elected MP Keir Mather with Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner
In spite of the recent by-election victory by the new Baby of the House, Labour’s Keir Mather, parliament is not proving welcoming for younger members. Those standing down include two young MPs who had been picked out as rising stars.
The SNP’s Mhairi Black calls Westminster “toxic”, Bishop Auckland Tory Deheena Davison finds it “unsociable”.
The Labour leadership are ruthlessly weeding out left-wing candidates.
Suspension from the party is the most brutal method. Jeremy Corbyn is no longer a member of Labour so he cannot stand as one of their candidates at the next election. His dwindling band of supporters in the Commons have been carefully biting their tongues to avoid joining him in the reject bin.
Before constituency parties get to vote on their candidate, a panel made up of trusted members of Labour’s National Executive (NEC) and local supporters draws up a “long list”.
As serving Mayor Jamie Driscoll found out to his cost in a similar process to select a candidate for the new mayor of the North East, this is how strong candidates not liked by the leadership can be excluded.
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MPs who have said they are standing down
Mish Rahman, a current member of the NEC supported by Momentum, is a typical example of the sort of PPC that Sir Keir does not want. He was blocked in the highly win-backable seat of Wolverhampton West in spite of being backed by five trade unions. He commented he was not surprised since none of his fellow “Bernie Grant Leadership” alumni have been selected. That programme, in memory of the black far-left Tottenham MP, was set up to promote candidates of his ilk.
Labour’s stand out PPC selection this time round typifies the change of mood. Charlie Falconer had to be sent to the House of Lords to serve in the Blair government. He refused to take his children out of private school and no constituency would have him.
Now the product of that public school education, his son Hamish Falconer – a well-regarded diplomat in his own right – has been selected as Labour candidate in marginal Lincoln.
Sir Keir Starmer and his closest aides – including Morgan MacSweeney, Matthew Faulding, Carol Linforth, David Evans and Marianna McFadden – are right to be careful.
Their opponents will target candidates with “extremist” skeletons in their closet.
Nadine Dorries has not yet stood down as promised to trigger the by-election in her Mid Bedfordshire constituency.
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The Daily Mail has already exposed Labour’s clean-cut candidate Alistair Strathern for taking part in a Greenpeace protest at the Home Office, dressed as a zombie.
A few places demand a high-profile and colourful candidate. The retiring Green MP Caroline Lucas has made Brighton Pavilion one of those constituencies. The Greens have already chosen Sian Berry, one of their other best-known politicians, to defend it for them.
The comedian Eddie Izzard, who has failed to be selected elsewhere numerous times, has local connections and is fighting hard for the Labour nomination.
The number of LGBT+ MPs now stands at a record 61 and is set to remain strong. Women and ethnic minorities are doing loess well.
Tory strategists at the centre wish they had the same grip on candidate selection as Labour, but they don’t. Just about the leadership’s only success has been blocking any candidacy by the former MEP and the serially disloyal Boris Johnson supporter David Campbell Bannerman.
Rishi Sunak and newly elected Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell in Uxbridge
After the turmoil of five prime ministers there is no centre, respected by all, to exert control.
PPCs are chosen by constituency associations whose members are the people who voted for Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and did not vote for Rishi Sunak.
The Tory Party factions are fighting out their differences in selections, constituency by constituency.
Unlike Labour they are choosing candidates who appeal to themselves, with little regard to who might attract floating voters in the centre ground.
Tory activists have already picked out two PPCs who they expect will still be battling for the soul of the party in a decades time.
In the One Nation corner stands Rupert Harrison, the PPC for Bicester, an old Etonian and former close aide to chancellor George Osborne. He looks like what Barbie’s Ken would look like were he to be a middle-aged Tory candidate.
The Nativist Brexiteer Corner is occupied by the cerebral and sometimes bearded Nick Timothy, who has taken over in Matt Hancock’s old constituency in Suffolk.
Nick Timothy
Male, middle-aged, middle class, there is a similarity in the profile, if not the politics, of the candidates being chosen by the two main parties.
Both of them now place a premium on the candidate having a local connection.
It is much harder for bright politically ambitious young people to shop around for a seat – even though some of them in the past have proved of prime ministerial calibre – like Churchill or Blair or Johnson.
The ConservativeHome website reports that in 12 winnable target seats, eight of the PPCs were local councillors, two more had local connections and only two were women.
Those following the selections most closely, including the journalist Michael Crick on his @tomorrowsMPs X (formerly Twitter) page and the Professor of Politics Tim Bale, believe that insistence on the local factor is seriously diluting the quality of the people who are becoming MPs.
Whether or not we are heading into a change election, we know already that there will be lots of new faces. They won’t look much different to those they are replacing and it is a fond hope whether they will be any better.
Former Manchester United and Scotland footballer Denis Law has died, at the age of 84.
In a statement, his family said: “It is with a heavy heart that we tell you our father Denis Law has sadly passed away. He fought a tough battle, but finally, he is now at peace.
“We would like to thank everyone who contributed to his wellbeing and care, past and much more recently.
“We know how much people supported and loved him and that love was always appreciated and made the difference.”
Denis Law in 2005. Pic: PA
The Aberdeen-born footballer previously announced in August 2021 that he had been diagnosed with dementia.
A prolific striker, Law scored 237 goals in 404 appearances for Manchester United, for whom he signed for a then-British record transfer fee in 1962.
He is the only man to have two statues dedicated to him at Old Trafford – one on the Stretford End concourse, the other as part of the United Trinity statue overlooking the stadium’s forecourt beside fellow great George Best and Sir Bobby Charlton.
Denis Law, third from left, as a statue featuring him alongside Sir Bobby Charlton and George Best – known as the ‘holy trinity’ – was unveiled in 2008. Pic: AP
The only Scottish player to have won the Ballon d’Or award, in 1964, he was also part of United’s triumphant campaign in the 1968 European Cup – in which they became the first English club to ever win the competition.
In a statement, the club said: “Everyone at Manchester United is mourning the loss of Denis Law, the King of the Stretford End, who has passed away, aged 84.
“He will always be celebrated as one of the club’s greatest and most beloved players.
Denis Law, centre, during Manchester United’s triumphant European Cup campaign in 1968. Pic: AP
“The ultimate goalscorer, his flair, spirit and love for the game made him the hero of a generation. Our deepest condolences go out to Denis’s family and many friends. His memory will live on forever more.”
Wayne Rooney, former United captain and the club’s all-time record goalscorer, described Law as a “legend”.
“Thoughts with all Denis’s family and friends,” he said in an online post.
Another former United captain, Gary Neville, said: “A great footballer and a great man. It’s a privilege and an honour to have spent time in your company. The King of the Stretford End.”
A tribute from the Scotland national team said Law was “a true great”.
“We will not see his likes again,” it said.
Law also played for Huddersfield Town, Manchester City, and Italian club Torino during his club career, and made 55 appearances for Scotland, scoring 30 goals for his country.
Manchester City said in a post on X: “The whole of Manchester, including everyone at City, is mourning with you. Rest in peace, Denis.”
The UK’s benchmark stock index has reached another record high.
The FTSE 100 index of most valuable companies on the London Stock Exchange closed at 8,505.69, breaking the record set last May.
It had already broken its intraday high at 8532.58 on Friday afternoon, meaning it reached a high not seen before during trading hours.
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The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.
Why is this happening?
Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.
This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.
The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.
Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.
What is the FTSE 100?
The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.
Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.
Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.
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FTSE stands for Financial Times Stock Exchange.
If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.
The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.
A good close for markets
It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.
Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.
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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week
Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.
The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.
Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.
Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.
UK
Nazi-obsessed terrorist Callum Parslow jailed after trying to murder asylum seeker at Worcestershire hotel
A Nazi-obsessed man has been jailed for attempted murder after he stabbed an asylum seeker in a terrorist attack.
Callum Parslow was handed a life sentence and will serve a minimum of 22 years and eight months in prison after he knifed the man at a Worcestershire hotel on 2 April last year, as a “protest” against small boat crossings.
The victim, Nahom Hagos, from Eritrea, said it was a “miracle” he survived after being stabbed in the chest and hand.
Parslow, 32, has Hitler’s signature tattooed on his arm and used a £770 knife he had bought online to attack Mr Hagos when he was eating in the conservatory of the Pear Tree Inn at Hindlip.
During sentencing, the judge, Mr Justice Dove, told Parslow: “You committed a vicious and unprovoked assault on a complete stranger Nahom Hagos who suffered devastating injuries as a result of your violence.”
The judge also said Parslow, from Worcester, was “motivated by your adoption of a far-right neo-Nazi mindset which fuelled your warped, violent and racist views”, and added: “This was undoubtedly a terrorist attack.”
He was found guilty of attempted murder in October last year.
Callum Parslow. Pic: West Midlands Police/PA
Leicester Crown Court heard at the time that Mr Hagos, who used to live at the hotel, was visiting a friend and was stabbed after Parslow asked him for directions to the toilet.
CCTV from the scene showed Mr Hagos fleeing to a car park and being chased by Parslow. He was able to run back into the main reception area, where the hotel manager locked the front door.
Parslow later re-entered through another door apparently searching for further victims, the court heard.
The hotel manager and a builder used a van to take Mr Hagos to hospital in Worcester, as they felt he was losing too much blood, where he was found to have an 8cm-long wound which had not penetrated any of his vital organs.
After trying to kill Mr Hagos, Parslow ran towards a canal and was spotted with what appeared to be blood on his hands.
Officers found blood containing a DNA profile matching that of the victim on the blade of the knife abandoned by Parslow.
The knife belonging to Parslow. Pic: West Midlands Police/PA
Failed manifesto post
After the stabbing and as police closed in, Parslow tried to post a “terrorist manifesto” on X, tagging Tommy Robinson and politicians including Nigel Farage, Suella Braverman and Sir Keir Starmer.
He wrote that he “just did my duty to England” and had tried to “exterminate” Mr Hagos. However, it failed to send as he copied in too many people.
Others on his list included Laurence Fox, Lee Anderson, Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and various news organisations.
Nazi memorabilia at bedsit
During the trial last October, the court heard an axe, metal baseball bat and a second knife were found at Parslow’s bedsit in Bromyard Terrace in Worcester.
Police also discovered a swastika armband, a Nazi-era medallion and copies of Hitler’s book Mein Kampf.
Nazi memorabilia which was seized at Parslow’s bedsit in Worcester. Pics: West Midlands Police/PA
Jurors were also told Parslow had Hitler’s signature tattooed on his arm “in order to demonstrate his affiliation to the ideals of the leader of the German Nazi party”.
He also pleaded guilty to an unconnected sexual offence and two charges of sending electronic communications with intent to cause distress and anxiety at the time.
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‘The pain feels unbearable’
Mr Hagos told the court in an impact statement he continues to feel “excruciating pain” in his hand after the attack by Parslow.
Read out by the prosecution on Friday, he said: “The pain is unbearable and keeps me awake all night long.
“The pain feels like an electric shock going through my hand and I now have insomnia.”
He then said he had been “living and pursuing a happy life before the incident,” but added: “I feel lonely and don’t feel safe on the street.
“My life has been turned upside down.”
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