Adam Boulton: 75 MPs to step down as ‘change election’ looms. Who’s going to replace them?

Published

2 years ago

August 13, 2023

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The next general election is only 17 months away at most. It is already seen as a “change election” – meaning that, on the basis of opinion polls and recent political contests, the party in power is likely to switch.

Conventional wisdom is that the Conservatives will most likely be out after 14 years continuously in power.

That outcome is of course in the lap of the electorate and cannot be taken for granted.

But it is the basis on which individual MPs make calculations about their futures.

Before any seats change hands, we can already say that there will be at least 75 new faces in the 2024/25 parliament.

That’s because 75 current members have already announced that they are not standing – and more than 50 of them were elected as Conservatives. A further 14 Labour MPs are stepping down, with seven from the SNP.

The overall turnover of MPs will be much larger anyway if is a change election.

The pollster Frank Luntz recently warned Tory MPs that any of them with a majority less that 15,000 is “at risk”. There are around 180 in that category – half the current parliamentary party.

Now is the time when the main parties are choosing the candidates to fight the coming election in the seats they hold, the seats they regard as winnable and the seats viewed as not worth wasting further resources on.

The types of candidate being chosen, especially in their safe or target seats, tells us a lot about what a party will be like in government or in opposition after the next election.

Since becoming Labour leader in 2019, Sir Keir Starmer has devoted more energy to exerting iron discipline on his party after the Jeremy Corbyn years than to developing radical new policies.

True to form, Labour is ahead of the Conservatives in choosing its prospective parliamentary candidate – more than halfway through – with more than 100 of an expected 200 of so new PPCs in place.

Of course, not all of them are first timers. Re-treads include the former Cabinet minister Douglas Alexander, who is hoping to win back East Lothian from the SNP, Anna Turley fighting to regain her Red Wall seat of Redcar and former Wolverhampton MP Emma Reynolds, who is now standing in Wycombe.

These three ex-MPs embody the middle-aged, middle-of-the-road cut of the Labour candidates being selected. Only about one in 20 of them are below the age of 30.

In spite of the recent by-election victory by the new Baby of the House, Labour’s Keir Mather, parliament is not proving welcoming for younger members. Those standing down include two young MPs who had been picked out as rising stars.

The SNP’s Mhairi Black calls Westminster “toxic”, Bishop Auckland Tory Deheena Davison finds it “unsociable”.

The Labour leadership are ruthlessly weeding out left-wing candidates.

Suspension from the party is the most brutal method. Jeremy Corbyn is no longer a member of Labour so he cannot stand as one of their candidates at the next election. His dwindling band of supporters in the Commons have been carefully biting their tongues to avoid joining him in the reject bin.

Before constituency parties get to vote on their candidate, a panel made up of trusted members of Labour’s National Executive (NEC) and local supporters draws up a “long list”.

As serving Mayor Jamie Driscoll found out to his cost in a similar process to select a candidate for the new mayor of the North East, this is how strong candidates not liked by the leadership can be excluded.

Mish Rahman, a current member of the NEC supported by Momentum, is a typical example of the sort of PPC that Sir Keir does not want. He was blocked in the highly win-backable seat of Wolverhampton West in spite of being backed by five trade unions. He commented he was not surprised since none of his fellow “Bernie Grant Leadership” alumni have been selected. That programme, in memory of the black far-left Tottenham MP, was set up to promote candidates of his ilk.

Labour’s stand out PPC selection this time round typifies the change of mood. Charlie Falconer had to be sent to the House of Lords to serve in the Blair government. He refused to take his children out of private school and no constituency would have him.

Now the product of that public school education, his son Hamish Falconer – a well-regarded diplomat in his own right – has been selected as Labour candidate in marginal Lincoln.

Sir Keir Starmer and his closest aides – including Morgan MacSweeney, Matthew Faulding, Carol Linforth, David Evans and Marianna McFadden – are right to be careful.

Their opponents will target candidates with “extremist” skeletons in their closet.

Nadine Dorries has not yet stood down as promised to trigger the by-election in her Mid Bedfordshire constituency.

The Daily Mail has already exposed Labour’s clean-cut candidate Alistair Strathern for taking part in a Greenpeace protest at the Home Office, dressed as a zombie.

A few places demand a high-profile and colourful candidate. The retiring Green MP Caroline Lucas has made Brighton Pavilion one of those constituencies. The Greens have already chosen Sian Berry, one of their other best-known politicians, to defend it for them.

The comedian Eddie Izzard, who has failed to be selected elsewhere numerous times, has local connections and is fighting hard for the Labour nomination.

The number of LGBT+ MPs now stands at a record 61 and is set to remain strong. Women and ethnic minorities are doing loess well.

Tory strategists at the centre wish they had the same grip on candidate selection as Labour, but they don’t. Just about the leadership’s only success has been blocking any candidacy by the former MEP and the serially disloyal Boris Johnson supporter David Campbell Bannerman.

After the turmoil of five prime ministers there is no centre, respected by all, to exert control.

PPCs are chosen by constituency associations whose members are the people who voted for Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and did not vote for Rishi Sunak.

The Tory Party factions are fighting out their differences in selections, constituency by constituency.

Unlike Labour they are choosing candidates who appeal to themselves, with little regard to who might attract floating voters in the centre ground.

Tory activists have already picked out two PPCs who they expect will still be battling for the soul of the party in a decades time.

In the One Nation corner stands Rupert Harrison, the PPC for Bicester, an old Etonian and former close aide to chancellor George Osborne. He looks like what Barbie’s Ken would look like were he to be a middle-aged Tory candidate.

The Nativist Brexiteer Corner is occupied by the cerebral and sometimes bearded Nick Timothy, who has taken over in Matt Hancock’s old constituency in Suffolk.

Male, middle-aged, middle class, there is a similarity in the profile, if not the politics, of the candidates being chosen by the two main parties.

Both of them now place a premium on the candidate having a local connection.

It is much harder for bright politically ambitious young people to shop around for a seat – even though some of them in the past have proved of prime ministerial calibre – like Churchill or Blair or Johnson.

The ConservativeHome website reports that in 12 winnable target seats, eight of the PPCs were local councillors, two more had local connections and only two were women.

Those following the selections most closely, including the journalist Michael Crick on his @tomorrowsMPs X (formerly Twitter) page and the Professor of Politics Tim Bale, believe that insistence on the local factor is seriously diluting the quality of the people who are becoming MPs.

Whether or not we are heading into a change election, we know already that there will be lots of new faces. They won’t look much different to those they are replacing and it is a fond hope whether they will be any better.

UK

Who was at the Pope’s funeral – and who wasn’t

Published

8 hours ago

April 26, 2025

admin

Who was at the Pope's funeral - and who wasn't

The Pope’s funeral is taking place today at St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican.

A pope’s funeral traditionally brings world leaders together, and several were in attendance.

Watch full coverage of the Pope’s funeral live on Sky News from 8am

Here’s a look at the list.

Prince William

The Prince of Wales attended the funeral of Pope Francis on behalf of the King.

The King was in Rome with Queen Camilla earlier this month, and met the pontiff at the Vatican.

The trip came just a week-and-a-half after Buckingham Palace confirmed the King had been taken to hospital following side effects related to his ongoing cancer treatment.

Sir Keir Starmer

Number 10 confirmed the prime minister received an invite and so he attended the ceremony.

Speaking on Tuesday, Sir Keir said there had been “an outpouring of grief and love” for the Pope.

He added: “I think it reflects the high esteem in which he was held, not just by millions and millions of Catholics, but by many others, across the world, myself included.”

Donald Trump

The US president was one of the first to confirm he would be flying to Rome, adding he would be joined by first lady Melania Trump.

Writing on his social media platform Truth Social on Monday, he said: “Melania and I will be going to the funeral of Pope Francis, in Rome. We look forward to being there!”

The Pope had been critical of Mr Trump at times during his tenure.

In January, he said it would be a “disgrace” if the president went ahead with his crackdown on immigration, telling an Italian television station: “It would make the migrants, who have nothing, pay the unpaid bill.

“It doesn’t work. You don’t resolve problems this way.”

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

The Ukrainian president, who met the Pope three times, was also in attendance – and there was an outbreak of applause for him when he arrived.

Mr Zelenskyy has said his country is grieving the Pope and recalled how he often prayed for peace in Ukraine.

Emmanuel Macron

The French President Emmanuel Macron also attended the funeral with his wife Brigitte.

In his tribute on Monday, Mr Macron said of the Pope: “In this time of war and brutality, he had a sense for the other, for the most fragile.”

Giorgia Meloni

The Italian premier, along Argentine leader Javier Milei (below) had place of pride in the seating order for the service.

The Vatican is, of course, surrounded by the Italian capital Rome, while the Pope was born and grew up in Argentina and was once Archbishop of Buenos Aires.

Javier Milei

The president of Pope Francis’s native Argentina was also at the ceremony, despite having launched insults at Francis in recent years.

Before taking office in December 2023, the far-right politician called him “an imbecile, the representative of evil on Earth”.

Mr Milei alluded to their “differences” in his tribute to the late Pope, writing: “It is with profound sorrow that I learned this sad morning that Pope Francis, Jorge Bergoglio, passed away today and is now resting in peace.

“Despite differences that seem minor today, having been able to know him in his goodness and wisdom was a true honour for me.”

Joe Biden

Former US president Joe Biden, 82, was at the funeral with his wife Jill. The couple were seen taking their places in the bright sunshine prior to the service.

Mr Biden appeared to be getting some help to his seat, taking the arm of a member of the church.

Lula da Silva

The Brazilian president and first lady Janja Lula da Silva were also at the funeral.

Brazil had also declared a seven-day mourning period for the Pope.

“Humanity is today losing a voice of respect and welcome for others,” the president said in his tribute.

“Pope Francis lived and propagated in his daily life the love, tolerance and solidarity that are the basis of Christian
teachings.”

Ursula von der Leyen

The EU Commission President confirmed she was attending after calling Francis a worldwide inspiration.

“He inspired millions, far beyond the Catholic Church, with his humility and love so pure for the less fortunate,” she said in her tribute.

Council President Antonio Costa, Parliament President Roberta Metsola was also expected to be in attendance.

Here are some of the other notable attendees:

• Ireland’s taoiseach Micheal Martin
• Spain’s King Felipe and Queen Letizia
• Albanian president Bajram Begaj
• Angola’s president Joao Lourenco
• Austrian president Alexander Van der Bellen
• Bangladesh’s chief adviser and interim leader Muhammad Yunus
• Belgium’s King Philippe and Queen Mathilde, along with prime minister Bart De Wever
• Canada’s governor general Mary Simon
• Cape Verde president Jose Maria Neves
• Croatia’s president Zoran Milanovic
• Cyprian president Nikos Christodoulides
• Czech Republic’s prime minister Petr Fiala
• Democratic Republic of Congo president Felix Tshisekedi
• Dominican Republic’s president Luis Abinader
• East Timor’s president Jose Ramos-Horta
• Ecuador’s president Daniel Noboa
• Estonia’s president Alar Karis
• Finland’s president Alexander Stubb
• Gabon’s president Brice Oligui Nguema
• German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier and outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz
• Greece’s prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis
• Honduras president Xiomara Castro
• Hungary’s president Tamas Sulyok
• Italy’s president Sergio Mattarella and prime minister Giorgia Meloni
• Latvian president Edgars Rinkevics
• Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda
• Moldova’s president Maia Sandu
• Netherlands’ prime minister Dick Schoof
• New Zealand’s prime minister Christopher Luxon
• Norway’s Crown Prince Haakon and Crown Princess Mette-Marit
• The Philippines’ president Ferdinand Marcos Jr
• Poland’s president Andrzej Duda
• Portugal’s president Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and prime minister Luis Montenegro
• Romania’s interim president Ilie Bolojan
• Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf, Queen Silvia and prime minister Ulf Kristersson
• Switzerland’s president Karin Keller-Sutter

Who was not there?

Vladimir Putin

The Russian president did not attend the funeral.

But the controversial leader paid tribute to the Pope, writing a message to Cardinal Kevin Farrell, who is interim chief of the Catholic Church.

“Please accept my most sincere condolences on the passing of His Holiness Pope Francis,” Mr Putin said.

“Throughout the years of his pontificate, he actively promoted the development of dialogue between the Russian
Orthodox and Roman Catholic churches, as well as constructive cooperation between Russia and the Holy See.”

Benjamin Netanyahu

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also did not attend the ceremony, with the country’s ambassador Yaron Sideman going instead.

The Jewish state and the Vatican have had strong relations in the past, with Israel sending a presidential delegation to the funeral of Pope John Paul II in 2005, and Pope Francis visiting Israel in 2014.

But their relationship has deteriorated since the start of the war in Gaza.

A month after the conflict started in 2023, a dispute broke out over whether Pope Francis had used the word “genocide” to describe events in Gaza. Palestinians who met with him said he did, but the Vatican said he did not.

The Pope met relatives of Israeli hostages on the same day.

Israeli officials have since lobbied the Vatican to be more forceful in its condemnation of Hamas.

In January, the Pope called the humanitarian situation in Gaza “shameful”, prompting criticism from Rome’s chief rabbi, Riccardo Di Segni, who accused Francis of “selective indignation”.

Rabbi Di Segni said he would be attending the funeral, despite it taking place on the Jewish sabbath.

Was there a seating plan?

The seats were assigned in advance, with the heads of state sitting in French alphabetical order based on their country’s name, rather than on the individual’s.

This applied to everyone apart from the presidents of Italy and Argentina, who got the best seats because the Pope lived in Italy and was an Argentinian native.

UK

Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died, her family says

Published

14 hours ago

April 26, 2025

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Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died, her family says

Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died aged 41.

In a statement to Sky’s US partner network NBC News on Friday, her family said she took her own life in the Perth suburb of Neergabby, Australia, where she had been living for several years.

“It is with utterly broken hearts that we announce that Virginia passed away last night at her farm in Western Australia,” her family said.

“She lost her life to suicide, after being a lifelong victim of sexual abuse and sex trafficking.

“Virginia was a fierce warrior in the fight against sexual abuse and sex trafficking. She was the light that lifted so many survivors.

“In the end, the toll of abuse is so heavy that it became unbearable for Virginia to handle its weight.”

Police said emergency services received reports of an unresponsive woman at a property in Neergabby on Friday night.

“Police and St John Western Australia attended and provided emergency first aid. Sadly, the 41-year-old woman was declared deceased at the scene,” a police spokeswoman said.

“The death is being investigated by Major Crime detectives; early indication is the death is not suspicious.”

Sexual assault claims

Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

The duke has repeatedly denied the claims, and he has not been charged with any criminal offences.

In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.

She stuck by her version of events until the end

Of the many dozens of victims of Jeffrey Epstein, it was Virginia Giuffre who became the most high-profile.

She was among the loudest and most compelling voices, urging criminal charges to be brought against Epstein, waving her right to anonymity in 2015.

She told how he and Ghislaine Maxwell groomed her and “passed around like a platter of fruit” to be used by rich and powerful men.

But her name and face became known around the world after she accused Prince Andrew of sexually abusing her when she was 17 years old.

The picture of her together with the prince and Maxwell at the top of a staircase, his hand around her waist, is the defining image of the whole scandal.

Prince Andrew said he had no memory of the occasion. But Giuffre stuck by her version of events until the end.

‘An incredible champion’

Sigrid McCawley, Ms Giuffre’s attorney, said in a statement that she “was much more than a client to me; she was a dear friend and an incredible champion for other victims”.

“Her courage pushed me to fight harder, and her strength was awe-inspiring,” she said. “The world has lost an amazing human being today.”

“Rest in peace, my sweet angel,” she added.

Dini von Mueffling, Ms Giuffre’s representative, also said that “Virginia was one of the most extraordinary human beings I have ever had the honour to know”.

“Deeply loving, wise, and funny, she was a beacon to other survivors and victims,” she added. “She adored her children and many animals.

“She was always more concerned with me than with herself. I will miss her beyond words.

“It was the privilege of a lifetime to represent her.”

Ms Giuffre said at the end of March she had four days to live after a car accident, posting on social media that “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure”. She was discharged from hospital eight days later.

Raised mainly in Florida, she said she was abused by a family friend early in life, which led to her living on the streets at times as a teenager.

She said that in 2000, she met Ghislaine Maxwell, a British socialite who was convicted in 2021 on federal sex trafficking and conspiracy charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.

Ms Giuffre said Maxwell then introduced her to Epstein and hired her as his masseuse, and said she was sex trafficked and sexually abused by him and associates around the world.

‘A survivor’

After meeting her husband in 2002, while taking massage training in Thailand at what she said was Epstein’s behest, she moved to Australia and had a family.

She founded the sex trafficking victims’ advocacy charity SOAR in 2015, and is quoted on its website as saying: “I do this for victims everywhere.

“I am no longer the young and vulnerable girl who could be bullied. I am now a survivor, and nobody can ever take that away from me.”

:: Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

UK

Who will be at the Pope’s funeral – and who won’t be

Published

14 hours ago

April 26, 2025

admin

Who will be at the Pope's funeral - and who won't be

The Pope’s funeral will take place today at St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican.

A pope’s funeral traditionally brings world leaders together, and some have already revealed they are attending.

Watch full coverage of the Pope’s funeral live on Sky News from 8am

Here’s a look at the list.

Prince William

The Prince of Wales will attend the funeral of Pope Francis on behalf of the King, Kensington Palace has said.

The King was in Rome with Queen Camilla earlier this month, and met the pontiff at the Vatican.

The trip came just a week-and-a-half after Buckingham Palace confirmed the King had been taken to hospital following side effects related to his ongoing cancer treatment.

Sir Keir Starmer

Number 10 has confirmed the prime minister received an invite and will attend the ceremony.

Speaking on Tuesday, Sir Keir said there had been “an outpouring of grief and love” for the Pope.

He added: “I think it reflects the high esteem in which he was held, not just by millions and millions of Catholics, but by many others, across the world, myself included.”

Donald Trump

The US president was one of the first to confirm he would be flying to Rome, adding he would be joined by first lady Melania Trump.

Writing on his social media platform Truth Social on Monday, he said: “Melania and I will be going to the funeral of Pope Francis, in Rome. We look forward to being there!”

The Pope had been critical of Mr Trump at times during his tenure.

“It doesn’t work. You don’t resolve problems this way.”

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

The Ukrainian president, who met the Pope three times, is expected to attend, according to officials in Ukraine.

In his tribute, Mr Zelenskyy said his country was grieving the Pope and recalled how he often prayed for peace in Ukraine.

Emmanuel Macron

The French president told local reporters he would be going to the funeral.

In his tribute on Monday, Mr Macron said of the Pope: “In this time of war and brutality, he had a sense for the other, for the most fragile.”

Javier Milei

The president of Pope Francis’s native Argentina will attend, despite having launched insults at Francis in recent years.

Before taking office in December 2023, the far-right politician called him “an imbecile, the representative of evil on Earth”.

“Despite differences that seem minor today, having been able to know him in his goodness and wisdom was a true honour for me.”

Lula da Silva

The Brazilian president and first lady Janja Lula da Silva will be at the funeral, the country’s government announced.

Brazil has also declared a seven-day mourning period for the Pope.

“Humanity is today losing a voice of respect and welcome for others,” the president said in his tribute.

“Pope Francis lived and propagated in his daily life the love, tolerance and solidarity that are the basis of Christian
teachings.”

Ursula von der Leyen

The EU Commission President confirmed she would be attending after calling Francis a worldwide inspiration.

“He inspired millions, far beyond the Catholic Church, with his humility and love so pure for the less fortunate,” she said in her tribute.

Council President Antonio Costa, Parliament President Roberta Metsola are also expected to attend.

Here are some of the other notable attendees:

Who won’t be there?

Vladimir Putin

The Russian president will not be attending the funeral, the Kremlin has confirmed.

But the controversial leader paid tribute to the Pope, writing a message to Cardinal Kevin Farrell, who is interim chief of the Catholic Church.

“Please accept my most sincere condolences on the passing of His Holiness Pope Francis,” Mr Putin said.

Benjamin Netanyahu

The Israeli prime minister is not expected to attend, with the country’s ambassador Yaron Sideman going instead.

But their relationship has deteriorated since the start of the war in Gaza.

The Pope met relatives of Israeli hostages on the same day.

Israeli officials have since lobbied the Vatican to be more forceful in its condemnation of Hamas.

In January, the Pope called the humanitarian situation in Gaza “shameful”, prompting criticism from Rome’s chief rabbi, Riccardo Di Segni, who accused Francis of “selective indignation”.

Rabbi Di Segni says he will be attending the funeral, despite it taking place on the Jewish sabbath.

Is there a seating plan?

The seats are assigned in advance, with the heads of state sitting in French alphabetical order based on their country’s name, rather than on the individual’s.

This applies to everyone apart from the presidents of Italy and Argentina, who get the best seats because the Pope lived in Italy and was an Argentinian native.