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The next general election is only 17 months away at most. It is already seen as a “change election” – meaning that, on the basis of opinion polls and recent political contests, the party in power is likely to switch.

Conventional wisdom is that the Conservatives will most likely be out after 14 years continuously in power.

That outcome is of course in the lap of the electorate and cannot be taken for granted.

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‘ULEZ is why we lost in Uxbridge’

But it is the basis on which individual MPs make calculations about their futures.

Before any seats change hands, we can already say that there will be at least 75 new faces in the 2024/25 parliament.

That’s because 75 current members have already announced that they are not standing – and more than 50 of them were elected as Conservatives. A further 14 Labour MPs are stepping down, with seven from the SNP.

The overall turnover of MPs will be much larger anyway if is a change election.

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The pollster Frank Luntz recently warned Tory MPs that any of them with a majority less that 15,000 is “at risk”. There are around 180 in that category – half the current parliamentary party.

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Next election ‘not a done deal’

Now is the time when the main parties are choosing the candidates to fight the coming election in the seats they hold, the seats they regard as winnable and the seats viewed as not worth wasting further resources on.

The types of candidate being chosen, especially in their safe or target seats, tells us a lot about what a party will be like in government or in opposition after the next election.

Since becoming Labour leader in 2019, Sir Keir Starmer has devoted more energy to exerting iron discipline on his party after the Jeremy Corbyn years than to developing radical new policies.

True to form, Labour is ahead of the Conservatives in choosing its prospective parliamentary candidate – more than halfway through – with more than 100 of an expected 200 of so new PPCs in place.

Of course, not all of them are first timers. Re-treads include the former Cabinet minister Douglas Alexander, who is hoping to win back East Lothian from the SNP, Anna Turley fighting to regain her Red Wall seat of Redcar and former Wolverhampton MP Emma Reynolds, who is now standing in Wycombe.

These three ex-MPs embody the middle-aged, middle-of-the-road cut of the Labour candidates being selected. Only about one in 20 of them are below the age of 30.

Newly elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club, North Yorkshire, after winning the Selby and Ainsty by-election. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023.
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Newly elected MP Keir Mather with Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner

In spite of the recent by-election victory by the new Baby of the House, Labour’s Keir Mather, parliament is not proving welcoming for younger members. Those standing down include two young MPs who had been picked out as rising stars.

The SNP’s Mhairi Black calls Westminster “toxic”, Bishop Auckland Tory Deheena Davison finds it “unsociable”.

The Labour leadership are ruthlessly weeding out left-wing candidates.

Suspension from the party is the most brutal method. Jeremy Corbyn is no longer a member of Labour so he cannot stand as one of their candidates at the next election. His dwindling band of supporters in the Commons have been carefully biting their tongues to avoid joining him in the reject bin.

Before constituency parties get to vote on their candidate, a panel made up of trusted members of Labour’s National Executive (NEC) and local supporters draws up a “long list”.

As serving Mayor Jamie Driscoll found out to his cost in a similar process to select a candidate for the new mayor of the North East, this is how strong candidates not liked by the leadership can be excluded.

Read more:
Are MPs getting younger?
MPs who have said they are standing down

Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn (right) alongside shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer during a press conference in central London. PA Photo. Picture date: Friday December 6, 2019. See PA story POLITICS Election. Photo credit should read: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire

Mish Rahman, a current member of the NEC supported by Momentum, is a typical example of the sort of PPC that Sir Keir does not want. He was blocked in the highly win-backable seat of Wolverhampton West in spite of being backed by five trade unions. He commented he was not surprised since none of his fellow “Bernie Grant Leadership” alumni have been selected. That programme, in memory of the black far-left Tottenham MP, was set up to promote candidates of his ilk.

Labour’s stand out PPC selection this time round typifies the change of mood. Charlie Falconer had to be sent to the House of Lords to serve in the Blair government. He refused to take his children out of private school and no constituency would have him.

Now the product of that public school education, his son Hamish Falconer – a well-regarded diplomat in his own right – has been selected as Labour candidate in marginal Lincoln.

Sir Keir Starmer and his closest aides – including Morgan MacSweeney, Matthew Faulding, Carol Linforth, David Evans and Marianna McFadden – are right to be careful.

Their opponents will target candidates with “extremist” skeletons in their closet.

Nadine Dorries has not yet stood down as promised to trigger the by-election in her Mid Bedfordshire constituency.

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Dorries ‘can stay in the jungle’

The Daily Mail has already exposed Labour’s clean-cut candidate Alistair Strathern for taking part in a Greenpeace protest at the Home Office, dressed as a zombie.

A few places demand a high-profile and colourful candidate. The retiring Green MP Caroline Lucas has made Brighton Pavilion one of those constituencies. The Greens have already chosen Sian Berry, one of their other best-known politicians, to defend it for them.

The comedian Eddie Izzard, who has failed to be selected elsewhere numerous times, has local connections and is fighting hard for the Labour nomination.

The number of LGBT+ MPs now stands at a record 61 and is set to remain strong. Women and ethnic minorities are doing loess well.

Tory strategists at the centre wish they had the same grip on candidate selection as Labour, but they don’t. Just about the leadership’s only success has been blocking any candidacy by the former MEP and the serially disloyal Boris Johnson supporter David Campbell Bannerman.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and newly elected Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell arriving at the Rumbling Tum cafe in Uxbridge, west London, following the party's success in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS ByElections. Photo credit should read: Jordan Pettitt/PA Wire
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Rishi Sunak and newly elected Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell in Uxbridge

After the turmoil of five prime ministers there is no centre, respected by all, to exert control.

PPCs are chosen by constituency associations whose members are the people who voted for Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and did not vote for Rishi Sunak.

The Tory Party factions are fighting out their differences in selections, constituency by constituency.

Unlike Labour they are choosing candidates who appeal to themselves, with little regard to who might attract floating voters in the centre ground.

Tory activists have already picked out two PPCs who they expect will still be battling for the soul of the party in a decades time.

In the One Nation corner stands Rupert Harrison, the PPC for Bicester, an old Etonian and former close aide to chancellor George Osborne. He looks like what Barbie’s Ken would look like were he to be a middle-aged Tory candidate.

The Nativist Brexiteer Corner is occupied by the cerebral and sometimes bearded Nick Timothy, who has taken over in Matt Hancock’s old constituency in Suffolk.

Nick Timothy
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Nick Timothy

Male, middle-aged, middle class, there is a similarity in the profile, if not the politics, of the candidates being chosen by the two main parties.

Both of them now place a premium on the candidate having a local connection.

It is much harder for bright politically ambitious young people to shop around for a seat – even though some of them in the past have proved of prime ministerial calibre – like Churchill or Blair or Johnson.

The ConservativeHome website reports that in 12 winnable target seats, eight of the PPCs were local councillors, two more had local connections and only two were women.

Those following the selections most closely, including the journalist Michael Crick on his @tomorrowsMPs X (formerly Twitter) page and the Professor of Politics Tim Bale, believe that insistence on the local factor is seriously diluting the quality of the people who are becoming MPs.

Whether or not we are heading into a change election, we know already that there will be lots of new faces. They won’t look much different to those they are replacing and it is a fond hope whether they will be any better.

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COVID-19 report goes a long way to answering inquiry’s critics

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COVID-19 report goes a long way to answering inquiry's critics

This scathing report goes a long way to answer the UK COVID-19 Inquiry’s critics, who have consistently attacked it as a costly waste of time.

They tried to undermine inquiry chair Lady Hallet’s attempt to understand what went wrong and how we might do better, and portray it as a lame exercise that would achieve very little.

Well, we now know that Boris Johnson’s “toxic and chaotic” government could well have prevented at least 23,000 deaths had they acted sooner and with greater urgency.

Follow latest: All four UK governments ‘failed to appreciate’ scale of COVID pandemic threat

File Pic: PA
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File Pic: PA

The response was “too little, too late”. And nobody in power truly understood the scale of the emerging threat or the urgency of the response it required.

The grieving families who lost loved ones in the pandemic want answers. They want names. And they want accountability.

But that is beyond the remit of this inquiry.

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Read more:
‘Toxic and chaotic culture’ at centre of UK government during the pandemic
A timeline of the UK’s response to the pandemic

Everything you need to know about the COVID inquiry

The publication of the report into Module 2 of the inquiry will bring them no comfort, it may even cause them more distress.

But it will bring them closer to understanding why the UK’s response to this unprecedented health crisis was so poor.

Copies of the UK COVID-19 Inquiry's findings into decisions made by former prime minister Boris Johnson and his advisers. Pic: PA
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Copies of the UK COVID-19 Inquiry’s findings into decisions made by former prime minister Boris Johnson and his advisers. Pic: PA

We can easily identify the “advisers and ministers whose alleged rule breaking caused huge distress and undermined public confidence”.

And we know who was in charge of the Department of Health and Social Care as it misled the public by giving the impression that the UK was well prepared for the pandemic when it clearly was not.

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All four UK governments ‘failed to appreciate’ scale of COVID pandemic threat – inquiry finds

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All four UK governments 'failed to appreciate' scale of COVID pandemic threat - inquiry finds

All four UK governments failed to appreciate the scale of the threat posed by COVID-19 or the urgency of the response the pandemic required, a damning report published on Thursday has claimed.

Baroness Heather Hallett, the chair of the inquiry, described the response to the pandemic as “too little, too late”.

Tens of thousands of lives could have been saved during the first wave of COVID-19 had a mandatory lockdown been introduced a week earlier, the inquiry also found.

Noting how a “lack of urgency” made a mandatory lockdown “inevitable”, the report references modelling data to claim there could have been 23,000 fewer deaths during the first wave in England had it been introduced a week earlier.

The UK government first introduced advisory restrictions on 16 March 2020, including self-isolation, household quarantine and social distancing.

Had these measures been introduced sooner, the report states, the mandatory lockdown which followed from 23 March might not have been necessary at all.

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All four UK govts ‘failed to appreciate’ scale of pandemic

COVID-19 first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of 2019, and as it developed into a worldwide pandemic, the UK went in and out of unprecedented lockdown measures for two years starting from March 2020.

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Lady Hallett admitted in her summary that politicians in the government and devolved administrations were forced to make decisions where “there was often no right answer or good outcome”.

“Nonetheless,” she said, “I can summarise my findings of the response as ‘too little, too late'”.

Report goes long way to answer inquiry’s critics

This scathing report goes a long way to answer the Covid 19 Inquiry’s critics who have consistently attacked it as a costly waste of time.

They tried to undermine Lady Hallet’s attempt to understand what went wrong and how we might do better as a lame exercise that would achieve very little.

Well, we now know that Boris Johnson’s “toxic and chaotic” government could well have prevented at least 23,000 deaths had they acted sooner and with greater urgency.

The response was “too little, too late”. And that nobody in power truly understood the scale of the emerging threat or the urgency of the response it required.

The grieving families who lost loved ones in the pandemic want answers. They want names. And they want accountability.

But that is beyond the remit of this Inquiry.

The publication of the report into Module 2 will bring them no comfort, it may even cause them more distress but it will bring them closer to understanding why the UK’s response to this unprecedented health crisis was so poor.

And we can easily identify the “advisors and ministers whose alleged rule breaking caused huge distress and undermined public confidence”.

Or who was in charge of the Department of Health and Social Care, as it misled the public by giving the impression that the UK was well prepared for the pandemic when it clearly was not.

‘Toxic culture’ at the heart of UK government

The report said there was “a toxic and chaotic culture” at the heart of the UK government during the pandemic.

The inquiry heard evidence about the “destabilising behaviour of a number of individuals” – including former No 10 adviser Dominic Cummings.

It said that by failing to tackle this chaotic culture – “and, at times, actively encouraging it” – former PM Boris Johnson “reinforced a culture in which the loudest voices prevailed and the views of other colleagues, particularly women, often went ignored, to the detriment of good decision-making”.

‘Misleading assurances’

The inquiry found all four governments in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland failed to understand the urgency of response the pandemic demanded in the early part of 2020.

The report reads: “This was compounded, in part, by misleading assurances from the Department of Health and Social Care and the widely held view that the UK was well prepared for a pandemic.”

The report notes how the UK government took a “high risk” when it significantly eased restrictions in England in July 2020 – “despite scientific advisers’ concerns about the public health risks of doing so”.

Lady Hallett has made 19 key recommendations which, if followed, she believes will better protect the UK in any future pandemic and improve decision-making in a crisis.

Repeated failings ‘inexcusable’

In a statement following the publication of Thursday’s report, Lady Hallett said there was a “serious failure” by all four governments to appreciate the level of “risk and calamity” facing the UK.

She said: “The tempo of the response should have been increased. It was not. February 2020 was a lost month.”

Read more:
A timeline of the UK’s response to the pandemic

Lady Hallett said the inquiry does not advocate for national lockdowns, which she said should have been avoided if at all possible.

She said: “But to avoid them, governments must take timely and decisive action to control a spreading virus. The four governments of the UK did not.”

Lady Hallett said none of the governments were adequately prepared for the challenges and risks that a lockdown presented, and that many of the same failings were repeated later in 2020, which she said was “inexcusable”.

She added: “Each government had ample warning that the prevalence of the virus was increasing and would continue to do so into the winter months. Yet again, there was a failure to take timely and effective action.”

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Fresh weather warnings issued as parts of UK threatened with blizzard conditions

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Fresh weather warnings issued as parts of UK threatened with blizzard conditions

Fresh yellow weather warnings for ice have been issued for many areas of the UK, as some areas are threatened with blizzard conditions on Thursday.

An amber warning for snow – covering northeast England, including Scarborough, Whitby and parts south of Middlesbrough – is in force until 9pm on Thursday.

UK weather latest: Blizzard warning for amber area

The Met Office said there could be “significant snow accumulations” over the North York Moors and parts of the Yorkshire Wolds with up to 25cm (10ins) on hills above 100m (330ft).

“Gusty winds, giving occasional blizzard conditions, and perhaps a few lightning strikes, may accompany some of the showers, posing as additional hazards,” the warning added.

Some A-roads in North Yorkshire were reported to be “gridlocked”, according to Shingi Mararike, Sky News’ North of England correspondent, but he added gritters are out to deal with the bad weather.

A car overturns on the A19 near Sunderland. Pic: PA
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A car overturns on the A19 near Sunderland. Pic: PA

The Glenshane Pass in County Londonderry has been coated in snow. Pic: PA
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The Glenshane Pass in County Londonderry has been coated in snow. Pic: PA

Snowy conditions near Skipsea in the the East Riding of Yorkshire. Pic: PA
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Snowy conditions near Skipsea in the the East Riding of Yorkshire. Pic: PA

Snow ploughs have been hard at work on the North York Moors and a thick coat of snow is covering the A169 between Pickering and Whitby.

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Dozens of schools have been closed in North Yorkshire and Scotland.

Amber warning for snow in parts of northeast England and south of Middlesbrough until 9pm on Thursday. Pic: Met Office
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Amber warning for snow in parts of northeast England and south of Middlesbrough until 9pm on Thursday. Pic: Met Office

A number of yellow warnings are also in force for snow and/or ice across large parts of Britain.

In many of the warnings issued by the Met Office, there are concerns that where “showers persist and/or snow partially thaws and then refreezes overnight, this will bring a risk of ice”.

Weather warnings in the UK for snow and ice across various regions on Thursday (left) and ice on Friday (right). Pic: Met Office
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Weather warnings in the UK for snow and ice across various regions on Thursday (left) and ice on Friday (right). Pic: Met Office

Jo Wheeler, Sky’s weather presenter, said clear skies will allow temperatures to tumble again as Thursday night approaches, “with an early and severe frost expected, and the associated risk of icy stretches on untreated roads and pavements”.

Coldest night so far

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday was the coldest of the season so far, according to the Met Office.

Temperatures dropped as low as -6.6C (20F) in Benson, Oxfordshire. There were two -6.4C (20F) temperatures recorded in Wales (in Sennybrigde) and in Scotland (Dundreggan).

While in Northern Ireland it fell to -2.8C (27F) in Altnahinch Filters.

Cold health alerts in force

As well as the one amber weather warning covering parts of the UK, there are two amber health alerts in place in three areas of England from the UK’s Health Security Agency.

An amber health alert is designed to prepare health services, including for the potential for a rise in deaths among the over-65s and people with health conditions.

The alerts are in effect in North East and North West England, along with the Yorkshire and the Humber region until 8am on 22 November.

Yellow cold-health alerts are in place for the rest of England and also expire at the same point.

Walk like a penguin

NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHSGGC) is recommending that people should walk like penguins to avoid dangerous slips and trips on icy surfaces.

The technique, which went viral in previous winters, is back for 2025 as part of the health board’s winter campaign.

Laura Halcrow, falls prevention lead at NHSGGC, said: “It might look funny, but waddling really works. A slip on ice can cause painful injuries and even hospital stays, especially for older people.”

Turning wet and windy

Sky’s weather presenter, Jo Wheeler, adds that the forecast is set to change this weekend.

“We’ll trade the cold sunshine and wintry showers for wet and windy conditions with rain turning heavy as it crosses the country on Saturday.”

“The British weather, fickle as always, looks like delivering a brief change to this milder westerly flow followed by an equally quick change back to a chilly northerly flow.”

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