Inflation is forcing Americans to spend $709 more per month on everyday goods and services than they did just two years ago, according to the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“The high inflation of the past 2+ years has done lots of economic damage,” Mark Zandi tweeted on Friday following the release of the Consumer Price Index — a closely-watched measure of inflation that tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services.
The CPI rose moderately, to 3.2% in July versus a year earlier.
“Due to the high inflation, the typical household spent $202 more in a July than they did a year ago to buy the same goods and services. And they spent $709 more than they did 2 years ago,” Zandi added.
Zandi — who also co-founded Moody’s global economic analysis service, Economy.com — said he sees relief ahead, predicting that inflation is “set to moderate further” as the Federal Reserve approaches its 2% inflation goal.
“Vehicle prices will decline more, so too will electricity prices, and the growth in the cost of housing will slow further. The biggest worry is the jump in oil prices, which bears close watching,” he added in the thread posted to X, formerly known as Twitter.
To be sure, the high inflation of the past 2+ years has done lots of economic damage. Due to the high inflation, the typical household spent $202 more in a July than they did a year ago to buy the same goods and services. And they spent $709 more than they did 2 years ago.
Though gas prices hit an eight-month high late last month, energy unexpectedly rose a mere 0.1%, the latest CPI report showed.
However, over the past month, US West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures climbed nearly 10%, to $82.83 and $86.39, respectively.
Zandi concluded his analysis with: “The deeper I dig into last weeks inflation statistics, the more confident I am that inflation will be back to the Feds inflation target by this time next year. And this without more interest rate hikes, a recession, or even much of an increase in unemployment.”
Fed officials have said that they’re also no longer forecasting a recession, though the sentiment opposes that of ratings agency Fitch, which owngraded the US top-tier sovereign credit from AAA to AA+, citing the possibility that the economy will slip into a mild recession later this year.
Consumers, however, have continued to feel reprieve from the central bank’s aggressive tightening regime, with core CPI which excludes volatile food and energy prices only rising 0.2% from a month ago, matching the 0.2% increase in June.
“The trend lines look good,” Zandi said, noting that “the July CPI report was great,” especially when compared to June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9.1% to hit a four-decade high.
Rising housing costs were by far the largest contributor to Julys uptick in prices, accounting for 90% of the advance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, though Zandi didn’t seem too concerned.
When The Post reached out to Moody’s for comment, the financial services firm pointed to commentary from another economist at the company, Bernard Yaros, who said that “the US consumer price index was fully in line with our and consensus expectations in July.”
“Moodys Analytics believes that the Federal Reserve is done with interest-rate hikes for the current tightening cycle, and the July CPI helps cement our near-term view on monetary policy,” he added.
The CPI report fueled questions about whether the Fed will continue to hike interest rates later this year after the Fed decided on a 25-basis-point rate hike in July, taking them to a 22-year high.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the advance was a unanimous decision, raising the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5%.
Economists were divided on the pending rate hikes following the release of the CPI report.
Greg Wilensky, head of US fixed income at Janus Henderson Investors, added: If economic conditions continue as expected, we believe we have seen the last hike for this cycle. This makes us more constructive on adding interest-rate risk, particularly at the front of curve.
Meanwhile, Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio Aleman believes stubbornly-high shelter costs are slated to put pressure on headline inflation going forward.
No doubt the Fed will also look at the Labor Departments hiring report for July as it considers whether its done enough to snuff out inflation.
Last month, US employers added 187,000 jobs, the lowest number since COVID peaked in 2020, though unemployment remained little changed month-over-month, at 3.5%.
The labor market has showed surprising resiliency over the last couple of months, adding 209,000 jobs in June and a robust 339,000 jobs in May.
The US is currently enjoying a 30-month streak of monthly job gains.
Disney’s use of CGI to create the seven miners at the heart of the live-action remake of Snow White And The Seven Dwarves has left little people feeling “disregarded” and “erased,” according to a disability activist.
Comedian, model and content creator Fats Timbo, who has spoken about being bullied as a child, told Sky News she believes Disney has missed a golden opportunity to educate children in what is likely to be their first encounter with someone with dwarfism.
Image: Fats Timbo is a comedian, model, author and content creator
Timbo, who has dedicated her activism to raising the profile of people of short stature, has achondroplasia, a genetic condition that inhibits growth and affects around one in 27,500 people.
Award-winning actor Peter Dinklage, who has the same condition, previously criticised the film, telling the WTF With Marc Maron podcast: “It makes no sense to me. You’re progressive in one way, but then you’re still making that f***ing backward story about seven dwarves living in a cave together?”
Following the remarks, Disney said it consulted with members of the dwarfism community to “avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film”.
It was the 1937 classic that established Disney’s name as an industry leader. But the remake has been beset by controversy.
Early on it was labelled “woke” due to its casting of Latina actress Rachel Zegler, who is of Colombian-Polish descent, in the lead role.
Zegler also faced backlash after suggesting the early version of the film had content that was unsuitable for the 21st century – namely the fact the prince “literally stalks” Snow White.
There was then speculation as to whether Zegler and Israeli actress Gal Gadot, who plays the evil queen, got on as they have previously expressed very different views over the Gaza war.
Image: Pic: Disney
Image: Gal Gadot as the evil queen. Pic: Disney
Not dwarves but ‘animated magical creatures’
Now the erasing of the dwarves – first from the title, then from the film, at least in human form – is proving highly divisive.
Disney used computer-generated images (CGI) to create what they called “animated magical creatures” rather than using little people in the roles.
Timbo tells Sky News: “Our representation is already small as it is – no pun intended. It’s already limited. To erase that and use CGI, like we’re mythical creatures or people that could be made on computers, it’s disregarding us in general.”
She goes on: “Let’s say kids have never seen somebody that has my condition and they’ve seen a CGI version of me. It’s going to be a bit baffling to children. It could have been a real educational piece to have actors that have the condition and give them the role they deserve.”
Timbo says lack of visibility for small people has real-world consequences.
“I used to get made fun of all the time. [Kids would be] saying ‘You’re one of the dwarves from Snow White,’ that kind of thing. I think now when somebody sees a little person, they’re not going to believe it’s real. They’re going to see that CGI version on Snow White instead of seeing a real little person that has real character with real depth.”
Image: Timothee Chalamet and Hugh Grant in Wonka. Pic: Warner Bros Pictures
‘Snow White And The Little People’
Timbo says other children’s films were also used to taunt her, including Charlie And The Chocolate Factory: “The Oompa Loompas – I got called that all the time.”
In the Snow White remake, Martin Klebba voices CGI Grumpy, while George Appleby has a physical character, playing one of a band of seven robbers – both actors are little people.
But the decision not to use people of small stature to play all seven dwarves on-screen has left many scratching their heads.
And it’s not the first time small people have been edited out of movies.
Charlie And The Chocolate Factory’s 2023 re-make, Wonka, used special effects to shrink down Hugh Grant to play an Oompa Loompa, while 2012 film Snow White And The Huntsman replaced its dwarves with able-bodied actors Ian McShane, Ray Winstone and Nick Frost.
Not a fan of the term dwarfism, Timbo says she thinks Disney would also have done well to tackle the title differently, too: “If they had put a different spin on it where it was Snow White And The Little People, that would have sounded great.”
She says that in an attempt to avoid controversy, Disney chose “the safe option” of simply cutting the physical roles completely, and letting CGI fill the void.
It’s a decision Timbo calls “upsetting,” due to the fact it “reaffirms the negative stereotypes of little people not being actual people”.
Image: Pic: Disney
Disney’s poisoned apple
Timbo’s 2023 book Main Character Energy, about living fearlessly in the face of adversity, seems like it could be a good read for the bosses of Disney right now, as they face growing criticism over the decision.
With a muted release (no Leicester Square premiere, and a limited LA debut) it’s been a less-than-fairytale opening for a movie which had been intended to rival the success of 2017 remake Beauty And The Beast. Many might say it has turned into something of a poisoned apple.
Proving controversial and polarising, the response couldn’t be more removed from Disney’s brand proposition if it tried. Early reviews are so far mixed.
Timbo says she will give the movie a shot: “I want to see if it lives up to the hype or the bad press.”
Box office figures and audience ratings will soon deliver a verdict, and Timbo remains generous despite reservations: “I want it to surprise me, I want to enjoy it… I hope it does do well. But obviously, I think Disney could have done things a bit differently.”
A swathe of celebrities including Sir Stephen Fry and Succession star Brian Cox have urged the government to reverse its “shameful” cuts to welfare.
Sir Stephen said the cuts should not be targeted at “the most vulnerable and overlooked of all our population”, while Mr Cox recalled his own experience of child poverty and argued the plans would “have a lasting impact on the lives of so many people already finding it difficult to afford life’s essentials”.
They were joined in their criticism by actor Stanley Tucci, who branded the plans “wrong” and said they would force parents in disabled families to “skip meals so that they can feed their children”.
The celebrities’ intervention comes after Sir Keir Starmer defended his government’s shakeup to the welfare system, designed to shave £5bn from the disability benefits bill for working-age people, which is set to balloon to £75bn by the end of the decade.
The prime minister has branded the current system “morally and economically indefensible” and said the government cannot simply “shrug its shoulders” and pretend the welfare system is “progressive”.
He told Sky News political correspondent Serena Barker-Singh that he understands why some of his backbenchers are uncomfortable, referencing his late mother, who was “very ill all her life” and brother who recently died of cancer.
But he said it was “morally indefensible that a million young people are going essentially from education on to benefits”.
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PM defends ‘vital’ welfare reforms
“All the evidence shows if young people are in that position and so early in their lives, they’re going to find it really difficult ever to get out of that,” he added.
“There aren’t many people who genuinely argue the status quo is working,” Sir Keir added.
However, the changes to the system – which will make it harder to qualify for the main disability benefit, the personal independence payment (Pip), have drawn strong criticism from charities and thinktanks.
The Resolution Foundation thinktank said the tightening of Pip eligibility would mean between 800,000 and 1.2 million people losing support of between £4,200 and £6,300 per year by the end of the decade.
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Govt ‘rushed’ welfare reforms
The Trussell Trust, which runs food banks across the country, said around three-quarters of the people referred to one of its services live in a household where someone is disabled.
It warned the measures will have a “significant impact on people who are already facing hunger and hardship”.
And Comedian Rosie Jones, who has cerebral palsy, said the cuts will “only deepen the hardship” disabled people are already facing.
“Disabled people are scared of what the future holds if there’s cuts to disability payments, as they are already not enough to cover life’s essentials,” she said.
A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson said: “Our reforms will build a social security system that’s fairer, more sustainable and fit for the future – so it can always be there for those with the greatest needs to live with the dignity and support they deserve.
“Helping people into good work is at the heart of our approach to tackling poverty and inequality, but the broken social security system we inherited is failing people who can and have the potential to work, as well as the people it’s meant to be there for.
“That’s why we’re introducing a new premium and ending reassessments for those who will never be able to work to improve the safety net for them, while delivering a £1bn employment support package to break down barriers for disabled people into work.
“We’re also rebalancing Universal Credit payment levels so the benefit’s main rate rises above inflation for the first time in a boost for working families.”
EDMONTON, Alberta — Oilers captain Connor McDavid suffered a lower-body injury and did not return in the third period of a 4-3 overtime loss to the Western Conference-leading Winnipeg Jets on Thursday night.
Goalie Stuart Skinner also was hurt when he was involved in a late-game collision and removed due to concussion protocols. Calvin Pickard stopped three shots in Skinner’s place.
Speaking after the game, coach Kris Knoblauch said there was no update on the statuses of either McDavid or Skinner.
McDavid appeared to get hurt while attempting to chase down the puck in the Jets’ zone when he was bumped by Winnipeg defenseman Josh Morrissey.
In the second period, McDavid assisted on Jeff Skinner‘s goal to extend his point streak to 13 games. McDavid has combined for four goals and 15 assists in the span.
McDavid’s injury came at the same time the Oilers held out NHL leading scorer Leon Draisaitl for precautionary reasons after the forward was hurt in a 7-1 win over Utah on Tuesday. Knoblauch said Draisaitl is day-to-day.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.