CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Retired NBA great Michael Jordan took the stand at the landmark NASCAR antitrust case and testified Friday that he has been a fan of the stock car series since he was a child but felt he had little choice but to sue to force changes in a business model he sees shortchanging teams and drivers risking their lives to keep the sport going.

Jordan testified before a packed courtroom for an hour. His celebrity drew quips from the judge and even a defense attorney as he outlined why the team he co-owns, 23XI, had joined Front Row Motorsports in going to court against the top auto racing series in the United States.

“Someone had to step forward and challenge the entity,” the soft-spoken Jordan told the jury. “I sat in those meetings with longtime owners who were brow-beaten for so many years trying to make change. I was a new person, I wasn’t afraid. I felt I could challenge NASCAR as a whole. I felt as far as the sport, it needed to be looked at from a different view.”

Jordan’s highy anticipated appearance followed dramatic testimony from Heather Gibbs, the daughter-in-law of race team owner Joe Gibbs, about the chaotic six-hour period in which teams had to sign an extension or forfeit the charters that guarantee revenue week to week throughout NASCAR’s 38-race season.

“The document was something in business you would never sign,” said Heather Gibbs, who is also a licensed real estate agent. “It was like a gun to your head: if you don’t sign, you have nothing.”

Charters are the equivalent of the franchise model used in other sports and in NASCAR it guarantees every chartered car a spot in every race, plus a defined payout from the series. The system was created in 2016, and during the two-plus years of bitter negotiations on an extension teams begged for the renewable charters to be made permanent for revenue stability.

When NASCAR refused to make them permanent and gave the teams six hours in September 2024 to sign the 112-page extension, 23XI and Front Row Motorsports were the only two organizations out of 15 to refuse. They instead filed the antitrust suit and the trial opened Monday to hear their allegations that NASCAR is a monopolistic bully. 23XI is co-owned by Jordan and three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin, and Front Row is owned by fast food franchiser Bob Jenkins.

Jordan testified that 23XI bought a third charter late in 2024 for $28 million even with all the uncertainty.

“I’m pretty sure they know I love to win,” the six-time NBA champion said. “Denny convinced me getting a third driver improved our chances to win, so I dove in.”

Like other witnesses this week, Jordan described a NASCAR that refused to discuss options or potential changes to the charter system, which he supports. He was asked why 23XI didn’t sign the extensions last fall.

“One, I didn’t think it was economically viable. Two, it said you could not sue NASCAR, that was an antitrust violation, I felt. Three, they gave us an ultimatum I didn’t think was fair to 23XI,” Jordan said, adding: “I wanted a partnership and permanent charters wasn’t even a consideration. The pillars that the teams wanted, no one on the NASCAR side even negotiated or compromised. They were not even open-minded to welcome those conversations, so this is where we ended up.”

Jordan referred to the NBA business model, which shares approximately half its revenue with players, far more than NASCAR.

“The revenue split was far less than any business I’ve ever been a part of. We didn’t think we’d ever get to what basketball was getting but we wanted to move in that direction,” he said. “The thing I see in NASCAR that I think is absent is a shared responsibility of growth as well as loss.”

Jordan said he owns 60% of 23XI and has invested $35 millioin to $40 million in the team. Jenkins testified earlier this week that has never turned a profit since launching his NASCAR team in the early 2000s and estimates he’s lost $100 million even while winning the Daytona 500 in 2021.

Heather Gibbs earlier told the jury how she became co-owner of Joe Gibbs Racing the day after her husband, Coy, unexpectedly died in his sleep the same night their son, Ty, won NASCAR’s second-tier Xfinity Series championship in 2022. Coy Gibbs had moved into a leadership role with JGR following the death of his older brother, J.D., in 2019.

Because Gibbs had lost both his sons and had built the team as a legacy for his family, his daughter-in-law took an active role in the organization and personally participated in negotiations for the charter extensions. When NASCAR made its final offer at 6 p.m. on a Friday night with just hours to sign, the agreement did not include permanent charters. Gibbs testified the organization was devastated.

“Everything was going so fast, the legacy of Coy, the legacy of J.D., everyone at JGR was very upset,” she told the jury. She said her father-in-law called NASCAR chairman Jim France pleading for a resolution.

“Joe said, ‘Jim, you can’t do this,'” she said. “And Jim was done with the conversation.”

Heather Gibbs said she had to leave to take her son to a baseball game in Chapel Hill and left worried about her father-in-law, who was 84 at the time.

“I left him sitting in the dark, listening to his blood sugar monitors going off,” she testified. “We decided we had to sign. We can’t lose everything. I did not think it was a fair deal to the teams.”

Joe Gibbs is both a Hall of Fame NASCAR owner and NFL Hall of Fame coach. He led the Washington football team to three Super Bowl titles and JGR has won five Cup Series championships. JGR has 450 employees, charters for four Cup cars and relies solely on outside sponsorship and investors to keep the team afloat. The team will mark its 35th season next year and Gibbs told the jury that JGR needs permanent charters to protect its investment in NASCAR.

“It’s the most important point, a permanent place in their history books,” she testified. “It is absolutely vital to the teams for us to know we have security, it can’t be taken away, to know what we’ve invested in is ours.”

After Georgia knocked off Georgia Tech to close out the regular season last week, coach Kirby Smart lamented the new era of college football, in which the playoff supersedes everything, and some programs would rather miss a conference championship game to rest up and get healthy than chase a trophy.

It’s true. Championship Week isn’t what it used to be, and a number of this year’s participants — Georgia included — have their spot in the playoff already secured, regardless of the outcome of their conference title game.

But if the playoff has taken some of the shine off a championship trophy, there will still be plenty of action this weekend with high stakes.

In the Big 12, BYU hopes to avenge its only loss — a blowout to Texas Tech — and steal a playoff bid.

In the ACC, chaos has been the conference’s true dominant force, but its best team — Miami — won’t take the field. Instead, Virginia looks to add another chapter to a magical season, while a Duke win could potentially push the conference out of the playoff completely.

The Big Ten championship doesn’t have much in the way of playoff implications. Indiana and Ohio State are both shoo-ins, and both probably getting first-round byes. But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing on the line. A showdown between quarterbacks Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin could ultimately determine who wins the Heisman Trophy.

Then there’s the games in the American and Sun Belt conferences. Tulane has the inside track on the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff berth, but North Texas could prove a serious obstacle. Meanwhile, James Madison needs to win the Sun Belt title, then state its case to the committee to be ranked ahead of the American champ — unless the folks in the committee room opt for both in lieu of a five-loss Duke winning the ACC.

And what about that Georgia-Alabama game? How committed are the two blue bloods to winning an SEC title?

For Alabama, a win guarantees a playoff bid, while a loss opens the door to some harder conversations. For Georgia — well, just ask its coach.

“It’s an opportunity to win an SEC championship,” Smart said. “I grew up thinking that was the greatest game in the world. I’m just different from everybody else.” — David Hale

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ACC | Big Ten
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American | Quotes of the week

What does Duke need to do to win? When these two teams met in Durham less than a month ago, Virginia dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides, and the result was an ugly loss for the Blue Devils. Virginia ran for 224 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and Duke’s vaunted defensive front produced minimal pressure, failing to record a sack of Chandler Morris. Inside the pocket, Morris has been dangerous all season, completing 69% of his throws with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. But when he has moved off of his spot, he has completed onlyt 55% with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. On the flip side, Duke needs to run the ball. Coach Manny Diaz said Virginia was the one team all season that pushed around Duke’s O-line, and the result was only 42 rushing yards, while quarterback Darian Mensah was sacked four times.

Must-watch player: Mensah

Duke invested heavily in Mensah this offseason, signing him to a reported two-year deal worth $8 million. So far, he has been worth every penny. Mensah is sixth nationally with 3,450 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, while throwing only four picks. He has been good outside the pocket, throws an excellent deep ball and is capable of extending plays. He has thrown six touchdowns and only one interception this season when under pressure. — Hale

What does Virginia need to do to win? Virginia used the perfect blueprint to beat Duke in their first meeting this season — taking advantage of a beat-up secondary with big plays through the air, while dominating on the offensive and defensive lines. Virginia was particularly impressive on defense, holding Duke to a season-low 42 yards rushing while harassing Mensah all game. Can that blueprint be replicated? Virginia will certainly try. The biggest key is to slow down a Duke offense that can put up points in a hurry. The Blue Devils are best when they have balance. Just once this season did they win a game when they had fewer than 100 yards rushing, and that was in a win over Clemson when they were able to throw the ball at will. If Virginia can get another effort like that from its defense, the offense should be able to score on a Duke defense that has struggled over the second half of the season.

Must-watch player: QB Chandler Morris.

The veteran quarterback said in January that he came to Virginia to play for a championship, and here he is, backing up his talk. He had one of his best performances of the season against Duke earlier, coming off an injury no less. In that 34-17 win, Morris threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns, though he did throw two interceptions — including one returned for a touchdown. Morris will have to avoid those mistakes with the stakes much higher this time, but it certainly feels as though everything he has done for Virginia has led it to this moment. No pressure. — Andrea Adelson

What does Indiana need to do to win? The Hoosiers must control the game with their rushing attack, which has improved substantially this season, as the team ranks No. 9 nationally (229.8). Michigan had early success running against Ohio State until losing Jordan Marshall to an apparent shoulder injury. IU coach Curt Cignetti was candid after last season that the team’s offensive line didn’t measure up against the best opponents. Several transfer portal additions have helped Indiana’s front, which must keep the offense out of obvious pass-rushing situations and limit Buckeyes defensive standouts Arvell Reese, Caden Curry and Kayden McDonald. Indiana also must avoid any special teams breakdowns like it had last year, when Caleb Downs‘ punt return touchdown broke open the game.

Must-watch player: WR Omar Cooper Jr.

Cooper has delivered highlights all season, most notably his back-of-the-end zone toe-tap touchdown to cap a comeback at Penn State on Nov. 8. Cooper had a touchdown catch in each of IU’s final four regular-season games, and opened the season with a reception of 39 yards or longer in the team’s first four games. Ohio State’s receiver crew and IU teammate Elijah Sarratt will get attention, but don’t forget about Cooper in this game. — Adam Rittenberg

What does Ohio State need to do to win? Ohio State’s ferocious front must pressure Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and force him to make plays under duress. That won’t be easy. The Hoosiers have given up only 15 sacks. And Mendoza is No. 1 in the Big Ten in getting rid of the ball (an average of 2.55 seconds before throwing). Offensively, the Buckeyes have to stay balanced and establish Bo Jackson early. That will set up shots downfield to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Indiana’s stout defense has surrendered only six passing touchdowns all season. But Ohio State is at its best when Julian Sayin is heaving the ball downfield. If the Buckeyes can run the ball effectively, they’ll eventually generate favorable opportunities for their superstar wideouts.

Must-watch player: Smith

All eyes will be on Heisman hopeful quarterbacks Sayin and Mendoza, but Smith remains the most electric player in college football — when healthy. Smith returned to help the Buckeyes take down Michigan last weekend with a touchdown grab after sitting out a game-and-a-half because of a lower body injury. As his game-clinching grab against Notre Dame in last season’s national championship victory underscored, Smith is the ultimate game-changing playmaker on the big stage. — Jake Trotter

What does BYU need to do to win? Weather the storm. In the first meeting between these teams, Texas Tech jumped out to a 13-0 halftime lead, and while that isn’t the biggest of deficits, it felt insurmountable with the way BYU was moving the ball. The Cougars need to keep this one close early, because they aren’t built to play from behind and force the ball downfield. If they can get the game into a grind-it-out type of style — one they are more experienced playing in than Tech — then they’ll have a shot. But if they let the Red Raiders dictate the game up front again, it could be another long day.

Must-watch player: RB LJ Martin.

It has been a breakout season for Martin, who leads the Big 12 with 1,229 yards rushing, to go along with 11 touchdowns. He was limited against Texas Tech the first time after sustaining a shoulder injury the previous week against Iowa State. He’s not a breakaway threat, but he is a reliable option to get tough yards — which is exactly what BYU will need. — Kyle Bonagura

What does Texas Tech need to do to win? Joey McGuire has frequently said his 11-1 squad still hasn’t even hit its stride and played up to its full potential. Texas Tech’s first Big 12 championship game is a monumental moment for the program. The Red Raiders proved they could handle big-time pressure when they last faced BYU on Nov. 8 with a flat-out dominant performance on defense in a 29-7 rout. Their 13-0 halftime lead in that game could’ve easily been 28-0 had they capitalized on all their early red zone opportunities. Getting quarterback Behren Morton in a good rhythm and keeping him protected is a must to once again to grab control and force quarterback Bear Bachmeier and the Cougars to play from behind.

Must-watch player: OLB David Bailey

The Stanford transfer has played his way into first-round NFL draft pick status with a dominant senior season in Lubbock, and is still the national leader in sacks (12.5) and edge pressures (61), according to ESPN Research. Bailey exited the Red Raiders’ regular-season finale at West Virginia because of an injury and was held out for the second half as a precaution. Coach Joey McGuire has said Bailey is “banged up,” but still expects him to play Saturday. — Max Olson

What does Georgia need to do to win? If Georgia is going to defeat Alabama for the first time in the SEC championship game, it can’t put itself in a big hole the way did in its loss to the Crimson Tide in Athens on Sept. 27. The Bulldogs trailed 14-0 early in the second quarter and by 10 at the half. The UGA defense simply couldn’t get Alabama’s offense off the field; the Tide converted their first nine third-down conversions and 13 of 19 in the game. Georgia has to do a better job of pressuring quarterback Ty Simpson, who hasn’t been as accurate lately. Getting him off rhythm will be key. Georgia’s defense has been better at putting pressure on quarterbacks in the second half of the season. Smart’s teams are 1-7 against Alabama (0-3 in the SEC title game), and the Bulldogs will have to play very well on defense to end that drought.

Must-watch player: QB Gunner Stockton

Stockton has played very well in his first season as a full-time starter, but he’s coming off his worst performance. He passed for only 70 yards, one touchdown and one interception and was sacked twice by Georgia Tech. He played OK against Alabama in the first meeting, throwing for 130 yards with one score. Georgia’s defense simply couldn’t get the ball back for him. The Bulldogs need to establish their running game the way they did in the first meeting, and that includes Stockton being more involved in designed QB runs. It won’t be easy with starting center Drew Bobo probably sidelined because of a left foot injury. — Mark Schlabach

What does Alabama need to do to win? Alabama has to be better against the run than it was in its first meeting with Georgia. The Crimson Tide used a quick start to their advantage, jumping to a 10-point lead before holding on for a 24-21 victory. The reason Alabama had to hold on is because Georgia rushed for 227 yards, the second-highest rush total allowed all season by Alabama. Though Alabama has played better against the run over the past month of the season, Georgia will want to establish its ground game. Ty Simpson will have to be on point once again, as the Alabama ground game remains a significant question — especially with Jam Miller injured and his status uncertain. If he can’t play, Alabama would be without two of its top three backs, as Kevin Riley is expected to be out because of a broken jaw.

Must-watch player: WR Ryan Williams.

This has been a down season for Williams, who was a breakout freshman star a year ago. But the reason he is a player to watch is because of how little he has been utilized over the past month of the season. Against Auburn last week, Williams had zero targets for the first time in his career. In November, he had seven total catches for 103 yards and a score. Can Alabama win without him playing much of a role? — Adelson

play

Drew Mestemaker throws 13-yard touchdown pass to Terrence Lewis

Drew Mestemaker airs it out for 13-yard touchdown pass

What does North Texas need to do to win? The Mean Green can strike quickly and often with their offense, and have played much better defensively since their lone loss, in which they surrendered 63 points, 32 first downs and 580 yards to South Florida. North Texas has the superior offense and quarterback in Drew Mestemaker, who has been brilliant since the South Florida loss with 2,252 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and only one interception. Tulane’s only losses have been blowouts, as the Green Wave were outscored 93-36 by Ole Miss and UTSA. If North Texas throws a big first punch, Tulane could hit the mat.

Must-watch player: Mestemaker

Mestemaker’s story cannot be told enough, from not starting a game during his final three seasons of high school, to becoming one of the top passers in the FBS. Mestemaker has become a national star under coach Eric Morris, leading the FBS in passing yards (3,835), while tying for fourth in passing touchdowns (29) and ranking ninth in completion percentage (70.9). The American Conference Offensive Player of the Year has only four interception on 382 attempts. — Rittenberg

What does Tulane need to do to win? The Green Wave did not run into North Texas during the regular season, but last year’s showdown in Denton, Texas, featured a combined 997 offensive yards and 82 points. Bottom line, coach Jon Sumrall’s squad needs to find a way to get a couple of timely stops against an offense that has put up 50-plus points in seven of its wins. Tulane had the American’s top scoring defense in league play (20.9 points) and responded well in November after getting burned for 48 points by UTSA. But it’s going to take great third-down defense and probably a couple of takeaways to take control.

Must-watch player: DL Santana Hopper

The App State transfer has now earned first-team all-conference honors in back-to-back seasons as a versatile and disruptive defensive lineman. Hopper has produced 29 pressures, 7.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks this season while lining up all over for a D-line that helped Tulane finish with the best run defense in conference play, giving up only 99.8 rushing yards per game. He’ll need to be at his best to get after Mestemaker and help contain 1,200-yard rusher Caleb Hawkins, the American Conference’s Rookie of the Year. — Olson

Quotes of the week

Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman on falling in the rankings: “We’re never always going to agree, especially when your program is the one that’s getting dropped after winning by 20-something points.”

Lane Kiffin at his LSU news conference: “Someone very close to me reminded me this week in this decision that LSU is the best job in football.”

Ole Miss AD Keith Carter on Kiffin’s comments since his departure: “There’s been a lot of things he’s said publicly that I’m not sure have been totally accurate. I think that both coach and his representation knew several weeks ago that coaching in the playoffs was not an option if he was not going to be the Ole Miss head coach.”

Ole Miss OL Brycen Sanders on Kiffin’s departing statement that insinuated players asked for him to coach the team in the playoff: “I think everyone that was in that room would disagree.”

“Despite the team asking me to keep coaching”. I think everyone that was in that room would disagree https://t.co/p4g4qDR9XF

— Brycen Sanders (@BrycenSanders1) December 3, 2025

Stanford coach Tavita Pritchard on restoring good offensive line play: “We’re going to make sure that position room is right. That was a common thread through all the great Stanford teams, was the offensive line. That’s a place we know we will recruit. We will make that kind of the heart and soul of the offense.”

Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline after being named the head coach at South Florida: “Becoming a first-time head coach at a place like USF is a dream come true for me and my family. I look forward to leading the team to new heights, both on and off the field.”

New Florida coach Jon Sumrall: “I’m built for this job. I was made for this job. Winners win. I’m a winner. We’re going to win.”

New Oregon State coach Jamarcus Shephard: “We will win the Pac-12 championship and a bowl game with class, integrity, and academic excellence. That is what we will do here.”

It took a while for college football to orient itself this season. Three of the top four teams in the preseason AP Top 25 poll started poorly, and only one really recovered. Nine of the preseason top 17 went 8-4 or worse. Meanwhile, some teams that were expected to be good — preseason No. 20 Indiana, No. 21 Ole Miss and No. 23 Texas Tech — turned out to be playoff-caliber dynamite.

Things were pretty messy for a while as the sport figured itself out, but once the hierarchy was established, it was established. Over the past three weeks, teams ranked 14th or higher in the AP poll have gone a combined 35-3, and all three losses were to opponents ranked 16th or higher.

The ACC and the coaching carousel did their best to ensure that there was always something messy and/or chaotic happening, but we’ve reached Championship Week with the balance of power firmly set. Now we get to find out if college football decides to offer one last burst of absolute nonsense. Here’s everything you need to follow during what is likely to be either a very orderly or incredibly fraught Championship Week.

All times Eastern

Championship Week chaos scenarios

This weekend is basically setting up like college football’s version of one of those “We can do this the easy way or the hard way” moments in a mob movie. If Texas Tech and Virginia win as favorites in the Big 12 and ACC championship games, respectively, and if Alabama beats Georgia as it almost always does — since 2017, Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs are 1-7 against the Crimson Tide and 107-8 against everyone else — then college football will have chosen the easy way.

If it unfolds that way, we’ll be able to predict with near certainty who will be in the College Football Playoff. The at-large bids will go to current No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Indiana (whichever loses the Big Ten championship game), No. 3 Georgia, No. 5 Oregon, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 8 Oklahoma and either No. 10 Notre Dame or No. 12 Miami, depending on how much overthinking the playoff committee decides to undertake. Per SP+, however, there’s only a 22% chance we get those three results. And things could get weird if we stray from the script.

(* If No. 11 BYU’s ranking slips, therefore putting Notre Dame and Miami next to each other in the rankings, the committee could decide to move Miami ahead because of the Hurricanes’ head-to-head win. It’s what they tend to do when teams with a head-to-head result end up next to each other. I personally think that win is the only reason Miami deserves to rank even as high as 12th — they have neither played nor beaten any other ranked teams, and they lost to two unranked teams in by far the worst of the power conferences. Notre Dame’s résumé undoubtedly has similar holes, but the committee had many weeks to rank Miami ahead of Notre Dame and didn’t do it, and it would be impossibly silly to do it after a week in which neither team — and only one of their 2025 opponents — played a single game. I’m extremely ready to go back to a BCS-like formula.)

What if BYU beats Texas Tech (23% chance, per SP+)? Last year, Clemson became the first official bid thief of the 12-team playoff era with its win over SMU in the ACC championship game. This year, BYU appears to be the designated thief. The Cougars have lost only to No. 4 Texas Tech and, at 11th, could claim to have been slighted by the committee. They clearly need to win to get in, and if they do, they will likely steal Notre Dame’s (or Miami’s?) ticket. The Fighting Irish, who have won 10 straight games by an average of 43-14, were ranked ninth for three straight weeks before mysteriously slipping to 10th on Tuesday. That puts them in line to get snubbed with a Big 12 upset.

What if BYU wins and Alabama loses (13% chance)? Last season, SMU made the CFP despite losing in the ACC championship game; from that, we derived that the committee had decided not to punish a team for earning a 13th game when others around it in the rankings had not. The Mustangs did fall from eighth to 10th, however. It wasn’t enough to knock them from the playoff field, but they still dropped.

So what will happen if Alabama loses to Georgia, perhaps by a solid margin? Will Bama fall behind Notre Dame? And if BYU has also won … will that mean the Cougars steal the Tide’s bid?

Tuesday’s rankings give us reason to doubt that Bama would move at all, of course. In fact, the only real justification for the Tide jumping Notre Dame this week is that the committee was giving itself a cushion in case of a Bama loss. There is, after all, no universe in which the Tide beating 5-7 Auburn in the last minute was more impressive than Notre Dame beating 4-8 Stanford by 29, and I wouldn’t think that A&M falling from third to seventh would make the Irish’s loss to the Aggies look significantly worse. Regardless, now the committee might not have to worry about eliminating Bama with a bad performance in Atlanta. But what if BYU wins and the Tide lay an absolute egg?

What if Duke wins (32% chance)? BYU aside, Championship Week’s biggest chaos agent is clearly Duke. Manny Diaz’s 7-5 Blue Devils eked out an ACC championship bid thanks to a set of tiebreakers that will almost certainly be redrawn soon. They are only 3.5-point underdogs against Virginia, and a Blue Devils win could give a playoff ticket to a second Group of 5 champion. James Madison would be first in line, though an 11-2 UNLV team will be intriguing if JMU loses and the Rebels finally figure out how to beat Boise State for the Mountain West championship.

Of course, with the lengths the committee went to avoid ranking another G5 team besides Tulane — JMU and North Texas didn’t make it in until this week, and barely at that — Duke itself could still simply hop JMU. The Blue Devils hold about four teams’ playoff hopes in their upset-minded hands.

And before you complain about undeserving teams making the field, this is how playoffs work! Teams with bad records reach the high school playoffs all the time. So do the champions of various lower-budget FCS, Division II or Division III conferences. Four teams with losing records have made the NFL playoffs since 2010. This is the way it should be. We should let more conference champs in, actually.

These are the chaos scenarios to watch for. Now let’s talk about the actual games.

Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox

Back in the BCS days, the people in charge would change the way the computer ratings portion of the BCS formula worked anytime they disagreed with the results. Constantly saying, “I don’t like that, let’s change something” creates a worse process as often as not.

One year into the 12-team playoff era, the college football world declared, “I don’t like that, let’s change something.” When the “top four conference champions receive first-round byes” rule produced odd results in Year 1 — namely, byes going to No. 9 Boise State and No. 12 Arizona State — the title-winner byes were immediately ditched. As a result, we get the most low-consequence No. 1 versus No. 2 December game imaginable. Barring an absolute blowout, Ohio State and Indiana are likely to receive top-four seeds and first-round byes no matter what happens in Indianapolis on Saturday.

Now, Indiana is playing for its first Big Ten title in 58 years; that’s pretty big. Plus, since both quarterbacks, IU’s Fernando Mendoza and OSU’s Julian Sayin, are among the three betting favorites in the Heisman race, it’s hard not to look at this game as a winner-take-all situation for that award. (Root for a defensive slugfest, Diego Pavia!) But this might turn out to be the first of two Hoosiers-Buckeyes games, and the second one will be much bigger.

This one will still be educational, though, and I have two huge questions:

Will Indiana’s offensive line hold up? In 2024, the Hoosiers lost to only the two national title game participants, Ohio State and Notre Dame. In both games, the IU defense mostly held up, but the offense vanished: Whereas the Hoosiers averaged 464 yards in wins, they gained a total of 429 yards in the two losses. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke’s injury limitations didn’t help, but IU running backs averaged only 4.0 yards per carry, and Rourke took eight sacks in 60 pass attempts.

This season, Indiana ranks first in rushing success rate* and a solid 35th in sack rate allowed. Backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black keep the Hoosiers on schedule, and Mendoza gets the ball out of his hands quickly. The offense performed well enough against a pair of SP+ top-10 defenses (Iowa and Oregon), but Ohio State’s defense is the best in the country. How well will the Hoosiers hold up, especially up front?

(*Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)

Can Ohio State turn on the explosiveness? Ryan Day and coordinator Brian Hartline have created a sturdy offensive structure for maximizing Sayin’s ridiculous accuracy and keeping the redshirt freshman out of awkward downs and distances. The Buckeyes operate with one of the nation’s slowest tempos, and Sayin throws the ball as quickly as possible. He has completed a record 78.9% of his passes, and with a good-not-great run game as a complement, Ohio State ranks second nationally in success and three-and-out rates.

The tradeoff, however, is a major lack of big plays.

The Buckeyes rank just 111th in yards per successful play (11.5), and while we know all about the epic talent of receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, Sayin very selectively looks deep. That keeps both the negative and big-play counts low.

Big plays are the way to score on Indiana, however. The Hoosiers have allowed only 11 offensive touchdowns this season: Six were from 44 yards or longer, and two more were set up by gains of 40-plus. IU is fifth in success rate allowed and ninth in sack rate — the Hoosiers don’t let you dink and dunk all the way down the field. Can Ohio State create chunk plays without exposing Sayin to hits and mistakes?

Current line: OSU -4 (down from -5.5 at open) | SP+ projection: OSU by 0.9 | FPI projection: IU by 0.1

Saturday, 4 p.m., ABC

If Alabama beats Georgia, we could end up with a situation in which a) the extremely top-heavy Big Ten gets only three CFP teams, but they all get top-four seeds and first-round byes, and b) the SEC gets five teams, but none of them are in the top four. Granted, there’s also a chance that the committee surges Bama up to fourth in this scenario, but based on the season the SEC has had, “five bids and no byes” would be apt. It currently has no top-five teams in the SP+ rankings, but it still has seven of the top 13 and, comfortably, the best average rating.

Of course, for all the talk of parity within this conference, we’re getting our fourth Bama-Georgia title game in eight years, and a Georgia win — the Dawgs are favored — will be its third title in four years. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose and whatnot.

Writing about Alabama this season has been a strange experience. The Crimson Tide have mostly been “little things” masters, owning the red zone on both ends, winning the field position and turnover battles and closing games out beautifully, going 4-1 in one-score games. But they have also only rarely looked dominant despite the legion of former blue-chippers on their roster. They’ve ranked between ninth and 12th in SP+ for the past seven weeks, and in that span, they’ve played almost precisely to projections (which suggests that the ranking is pretty accurate).

They beat Georgia 10 weeks ago, however, and that brings them back to Atlanta to face a Georgia team that … has rarely dominated despite the legion of former blue-chippers on their roster. The Dawgs are also 4-1 in one-score finishes, and while they had to lean heavily on offense early in the season — they beat Tennessee 44-41 and beat Ole Miss 43-35 — they’ve allowed just 22 total points in their past three games, a run that includes their one truly resounding performance, a 35-10 blowout of Texas.

In the teams’ first meeting, two major habits came to bear. Alabama, which ranks eighth nationally in points per drive in the first half (and only 33rd in the second), bolted to a 14-0 lead and led 24-14 at halftime. In the second half, however, Georgia took control, tilting the field and creating a pair of red zone opportunities to Bama’s zero. A fourth-down stop in the fourth quarter, however, made the difference in a 24-21 Tide win. For the game, the Dawgs averaged 6.7 yards per play to Bama’s 5.2, but the Tide won 19 of 27 total third downs and finished plus-1 in turnovers. That was just enough.

This was one of five games in which Georgia took snaps while trailing in the second half. It was the only one the Dawgs didn’t win. For whatever their upside might be this year, there’s never going to be any question about their ability to brawl for 60 full minutes.

Georgia’s defense has rounded into form of late, but the Dawgs still face an awkward matchup with the Tide offense, in that it defends the run far better than the pass and Bama is happy to abandon the run and put the game in Ty Simpson‘s hands. Regardless, the early going will be huge: Georgia is more experienced and more effective at playing from behind. And if you’re rooting for the “What happens if Bama gets genuinely thumped?” scenario, Georgia going up early is an obvious step one.

Current line: UGA -2.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 2.8 | FPI projection: Bama by 0.3

Saturday, noon, ABC

I don’t think we’ve talked enough about how good Texas Tech is this season. I mean, everyone knows the Red Raiders are good — they’re 11-1, they’re fourth in the CFP rankings and defenders Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey are surefire All-Americans. They aren’t exactly flying under the radar. But while SP+ has locked in pretty well on most teams, it continues to underestimate Tech’s capabilities, even while ranking it third nationally. The Red Raiders overachieved against projections by an average of 14.0 points in November, winning four games (including one against BYU) by an average of 42-9. In fact, the only time they’ve really underachieved all season was in their 26-22 loss to Arizona State, when they were without starting quarterback Behren Morton. They even managed to overachieve in three other partial or whole games without Morton. This is a scary team.

BYU has all the motivation in this one, however, knowing that its playoff hopes are now fully win or bust. (The Cougars might also get an “Our head coach just chose us over Penn State” boost.) Will that make a difference? Or is Tech just too damn good?

BYU’s defense played brilliantly in the teams’ first meeting, a 29-7 Tech win on Nov. 8. The Cougars held Tech to just a 33.3% success rate, 13 percentage points below its season average, and allowed the Red Raiders just two touchdowns in seven red zone trips. The score was only 13-0 at halftime, and wasted opportunities made it seem like Tech could be vulnerable to a comeback, but the BYU offense just couldn’t deliver. For just about the only time all season, BYU’s Bear Bachmeier looked like the true freshman he is, throwing for just 188 yards at 4.5 yards per dropback and losing an interception and fumble. Given enough opportunities, Tech finally put the game away.

An upset will require the same high level of defensive play and far better execution on offense. Having running back LJ Martin at full strength will help — Martin was hurt the week before the first matchup and gained just 35 yards in 10 carries against Tech. His 222-yard performance two weeks ago against Cincinnati suggests he’s playing at a high level, and BYU should get another couple of recently banged-up starters back as well. But we just don’t know what exactly will beat the Tech defense because almost nothing has.

The Red Raiders have given up more than 17 points just twice all season and only allowed one team, Kansas State, to top 4.8 yards per play (the Wildcats averaged a still pedestrian 5.2). BYU might be able to hold Tech under 28 points with another strong effort, but it might take the best performance of Bachmeier’s life to hit 28 or more.

Current line: Tech -12.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 11.7 | FPI projection: Tech by 4.3

Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC

As fun as it’s been to envision wild scenarios that might unfold if Duke wins the ACC, Virginia could put an end to all of this creativity by simply repeating what happened the last time the Cavaliers met the Blue Devils. Three weeks ago, they put together probably their most complete performance of the season in a 34-17 romp.

Success rate: Virginia 40.3%, Duke 31.0%
Yards per play: Virginia 7.0, Duke 4.4
Field position margin: Virginia plus-6.7 per drive
Third downs: Virginia 12-19, Duke 4-15
Sacks: Virginia 4, Duke 0
Turnovers: Virginia 2, Duke 1

UVA played far more efficient ball than the Blue Devils, enjoyed eight gains of 20-plus yards to Duke’s three and won 23 of 34 total third downs (67%). The only reason the game finished as close as 17 points was because of two Hoos turnovers, one of which was a pick-six.

Virginia has been the better team in 2025, but these teams’ first game was a bit of an outlier. UVA’s seasonlong averages aren’t quite as advantageous, and Duke’s offense has been especially strong down the stretch. The Blue Devils have scored more than 30 points in four of the past five games (UVA being the exception), and Darian Mensah finished the regular season first in the ACC in passing yards and third in Total QBR.

Mensah has been a high-volume, high-accuracy playmaker, and Duke has improved from 71st to 23rd in offensive SP+ in a single season.

Unfortunately for Duke, the defense has fallen from 31st to 91st. Against seven top-60 offenses this season, including Virginia’s, Duke allowed 36.4 points per game. Virginia’s offensive production trailed off over the back half of the season, but the Hoos still torched the Blue Devils: Chandler Morris threw for 316 yards, Trell Harris caught eight balls for 161 yards and J’Mari Taylor rushed for 133 yards in 18 carries.

Mensah and receivers Cooper Barkate and Que’Sean Brown torched Clemson and Wake Forest — defenses that grade out about as well as UVA’s — and Duke could absolutely turn this into a track meet. But Virginia probably has the advantage in a track meet too.

Current line: UVA -3.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 7.3 | FPI projection: UVA by 1.5

Friday, 8 p.m., ABC

With four of five Group of 5 title games taking place Friday night, we’ll have a clear view of the stakes of Virginia-Duke by Saturday morning. But it’s safe to assume that the winner of this game, pitting two ranked teams with soon-departing head coaches (UNT’s Oklahoma State-bound Eric Morris and Tulane’s Florida-bound Jon Sumrall) in potentially very rainy conditions, is in.

For all of the money being thrown around to stars in today’s college football landscape, the best offense in the country, per SP+, was crafted in Denton, Texas, and features a true freshman (RB Caleb Hawkins), a redshirt freshman who didn’t start in high school (QB Drew Mestemaker) and transfers from Kent State, Abilene Christian, Shepherd University and the now-closed Limestone University. North Texas is averaging 46.8 points and 511.8 yards; the Mean Green have topped 50 points seven times and even scored 36 in their lone loss.

The Mean Green’s schedule, however, has lacked. They’ve played only one team currently ranked higher than 57th in SP+ (South Florida), and they lost to the Bulls by 27 points. Granted, that margin was mostly due to the worst middle eight of all time — USF went on a 28-0 run between the 0:02 mark of the second quarter and 11:35 of the third — but it still counts, and UNT hasn’t had another chance to prove itself against a particularly good opponent.

Tulane is good. Granted, the Green Wave have allowed 38.5 points per game and 7.1 yards per play to the only two top-20 offenses they’ve faced. But they’re improving on D — they solidly overachieved against defensive projections down the stretch — and they have an offense that can keep up in a track meet: They’re 10th nationally in passing success rate, with Jake Retzlaff combining 2,717 passing yards with a solid 621 non-sack rushing yards.

Neither of these defenses is amazing, but neither gives up a ton of big plays either. This one will probably come down to which defense allows the fewest big shots and easy points

Current line: UNT -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 8.2 | FPI projection: UNT by 2.0

Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN

Troy has reached the Sun Belt championship game through sheer perseverance. Gerad Parker’s Trojans won three straight wild one-score games early in the season. They also overcame an early-season QB injury, with Tucker Kilcrease filling in for Goose Crowder, who is back in the lineup and slinging the ball around well. Good pass defense and random offensive spurts have given them a chance at a third Sun Belt title in four years.

The odds, of course, aren’t great. JMU did lose four times as a favorite last year, and distractions can always strike when your coach is leaving, but Troy is a three-touchdown underdog, and JMU will be hunting for style points in super-chilly Harrisonburg.

JMU’s defense ranks first in success rate allowed and has allowed more than 5.1 yards per play just once all season. They boast difference-makers at each level, from defensive ends Sahir West and Aiden Gobaira up front to safety Jacob Thomas in the back. The offense was surprisingly inconsistent early in 2025 but ignited against Old Dominion and hasn’t looked back: In their past six games, the Dukes have averaged 48.5 points and 7.4 yards per play. Alonza Barnett is 14th nationally in Total QBR in that span, distributing the ball beautifully to five different pass catchers.

The only close call JMU has suffered since the offensive ignition came against Washington State: The Cougars kept the tempo at a crawl, won third and fourth downs and limited the Dukes to just 50 snaps. It still didn’t work — JMU scored on two long second-half touchdowns and won 24-20. But if Troy pulls a scare, it will be from a similar recipe. The Trojans can land some shots defensively, and they’re pretty good on third down and willing on fourth. But the margin for error here is minimal.

Current line: JMU -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: JMU by 20.2 | FPI projection: JMU by 18.4

Friday, 8 p.m., Fox

Since the start of 2023, UNLV is 30-10 overall, an incredible run for a program with minimal historical success. The Rebels have gone 5-3 against power conference programs in that span, and they’re 18-7 in the Mountain West. Just imagine how great things might be if they could actually beat Boise State: The Rebels are 0-4 against the Broncos in this span, including losses in back-to-back MWC championship games. If momentum means anything in this sport, however — I often doubt it does — and the Rebels can adapt to cold and rainy conditions in Boise, the timing might finally be right.

Five weeks ago, this matchup seemed unlikely. UNLV had lost two straight games, giving up 96 combined points to Boise State and New Mexico and falling to 123rd in defensive SP+. BSU, meanwhile, had just lost quarterback Maddux Madsen to injury and had fallen 30-7 to Fresno State. The Broncos would lose to San Diego State in their next game, too.

BSU quarterback Max Cutforth found his footing, however, and helped to lead a blowout of Colorado State and a comeback win at Utah State. UNLV, meanwhile, suddenly found a defense and beat its past four conference opponents by an average of 38-16. The Rebels have looked so good that they rose from 71st to 41st in SP+ in just four weeks.

Madsen, who is scheduled to return Friday, threw for 253 yards and four touchdowns in BSU’s 56-31 win over UNLV in Week 8, while Dylan Riley rushed for 201 yards in just 15 carries. Even in the Rebels’ improved state, they still aren’t defending the run well. UNLV can keep up in most track meets, and holding the Broncos under 35 will give it a chance. But that might not be guaranteed.

Current line: BSU -4.5 (up from -1.5) | SP+ projection: UNLV by 0.4 | FPI projection: BSU by 4.0

Friday, 7 p.m., CBSSN

For the second straight season, a second-year FBS program will play for the CUSA title. Last year, second-year Jacksonville State wiped the floor with Western Kentucky; now Kennesaw State gives it a go against the champs.

Jerry Mack’s first KSU team has found success by raising its floor: The Owls don’t rank high in many of the categories I track, but they’re also near the bottom in almost none. They defend the run well — linebacker Baron Hopson is ridiculously good in this department — they hit on some deep passes to Gabriel Benyard and Christian Moss, and they wait for you to make mistakes.

JSU lost a ton from last year’s conference title squad, but after a wobbly 3-3 start, the Gamecocks found an offensive rhythm by running the hell out of the ball: Cam Cook has rushed for 1,588 yards, and not including sacks, quarterback Caden Creel has added 1,008. The defense is decent but clutch offensive play has allowed the Gamecocks to win six of seven games despite five finishing within one score.

These two met three weeks ago in a game decided by big plays and turnovers. Jax State scored on a second-quarter Hail Mary, Creel produced completions of 50 and 52 yards (plus a 40-yard rush), and the Gamecocks picked off three passes in the red zone in a 35-26 win. None of that’s particularly sustainable, though, especially since KSU has been the better overall red zone team in 2025.

Current line: KSU -2.5 (flipped from JSU -1.5) | SP+ projection: KSU by 1.4 | FPI projection: KSU by 0.3

Saturday, noon, ESPN

Miami is playing in the MAC championship game for the third straight season — the Redhawks won in 2023 and lost last year — while WMU is enjoying its best campaign, and first title game appearance, since 2016.

Chuck Martin’s Redhawks lost basically every offensive starter and half the defense after last season and landed only a few major contributors from the transfer portal. But they got rolling after an 0-3 start, and when quarterback Dequan Finn left the program in November, redshirt freshman Thomas Gotkowski took over and led comfortable wins over Buffalo and Ball State.

WMU also started 0-3, but the Broncos have since won eight of nine — losing only to Miami, in fact. Thanks in part to otherworldly outside linebacker Nadame Tucker (18.5 TFLs, 12 sacks, 4 forced fumbles), their defense ranks 46th in defensive SP+, their highest ranking since 2000.

Miami turned the tables late in their Week 9 matchup. WMU took a 17-9 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Redhawks outgained the Broncos 160-61 in the fourth, forced a turnover and finished the game on a 17-0 run. Gotkowski has gotten away with mostly quick passes to the sideline, but the Redhawks might need him to ramp up the playmaking to maintain their Week 9 advantages. Otherwise WMU could seize its first title in nine years.

Current line: WMU -2.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 1.2 | FPI projection: WMU by 0.2

Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The smaller-school playoffs are hitting top speed, so here’s a game you should track at each level.

Division II quarterfinals: No. 16 Newberry at No. 13 Albany State (ESPN+, 1 p.m.). The Division II quarterfinals feature projected blowout wins for the three best teams — Ferris State, Harding and Kutztown — but the last semifinal spot will go to one of two upstarts.

Both Albany State and Newberry are seeking their first D-II semifinal appearance. ASU is the projected favorite because of defensive end Derrick Drayton and a defense that allows just 13.3 points per game. Newberry, however, just upset No. 4 West Florida thanks to 416 passing yards and two touchdowns from quarterback Reed Charpia. Do the Wolves have another upset in them?

SP+ projection: Albany State by 7.3

Division III round of 16: No. 6 Saint John’s (Minn.) at No. 4 Wisconsin-River Falls (1 p.m., ESPN+). Saint John’s has been to only one semifinal since winning the 2003 D-III national title, but the Johnnies are flying thanks to quarterback Trey Feeney and an offense averaging 50.4 points per game. UWRF, meanwhile, is looking for its first quarterfinal appearance in 30 years, and Kaleb Blaha and the Falcons also wing the ball around like crazy and score lots of points (47.5 PPG)! Track meet in River Falls!

SP+ projection: Johnnies by 1.4

NAIA quarterfinals: No. 7 Lindsey Wilson at No. 1 Grand View (1 p.m., local streaming). It’s the No. 1 team in the NAIA polls vs. the No. 1 team in NAIA SP+. Grand View is NAIA’s standard bearer; the Vikings are the defending national champions and have gone a cool 83-5 since 2019. The defense allows 8.4 points per game thanks to ace pass rusher Jackson Filer (23 TFLs, 11 sacks). But Lindsey Wilson is scoring 44.8 points per game with absurd run-pass balance. And there’s a chance of afternoon snow in Des Moines!

SP+ projection: LWU by 1.5

FCS round of 16: No. 18 South Dakota State at No. 4 Montana (2 p.m., ESPN+). So is South Dakota State suddenly South Dakota State again? The Jackrabbits needed a miracle finish against North Dakota to assure themselves a spot in the playoffs, but with quarterback Chase Mason healthy and back in the lineup, they crushed New Hampshire 41-3 in last week’s first round. Mason’s in-season injury might end up being Montana’s misfortune — SDSU is unbeaten when he starts, and now the Grizzlies have to beat the Jacks just to reach the quarterfinals. Luckily they have quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat and a pretty fantastic offense themselves.

SP+ projection: Montana by 5.6