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Off the field, college football is almost always threatened by storm clouds. On the field, it remains unbeaten.

The 2022 college offseason was defined by coaches yelling about stressful and exhausting recruiting calendars and the hand-wringing associated with players making loads of money from NIL deals and collectives. (We also had our annual late-summer conference realignment lightning bolt in USC and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten.) Everything was changing! Players were making money! Would things change on the field?

Nope. The 2022 season was an absolute delight.

This summer, we’ve again been inundated by talks of existential threats amid Congressional hearings, and NIL seems to be playing an even larger role in recruiting and transfers whether it’s supposed to or not. While that certainly alarms some more than others, almost no one seems particularly jazzed about the latest round of late-summer realignment moves, in which a lot of schools declared that they didn’t want to leave the Pac-12 but had to and all but assured either the death of the Pac-12 as we know it … or just the outright death of the Pac-12, period. The future appears foreboding in many ways, but once again, here comes the actual season to save the day for a little while.

Each year, as a season approaches, I write a paean to the glory of eating the whole cow, of delighting in all of college football’s on-field ridiculousness, from the national title race to the small-school glory and everywhere in between. (Here’s 2022’s piece, and here’s 2021’s.) Against decent odds, the on-field chaos and buzz somehow always make college football worth the off-field frustration, and while the latter is definitely growing, 2023 could offer a particularly impressive bounty of the former too. So let’s talk about how to get the maximum possible enjoyment from this coming fall.

The big showdowns

We might boast of eating the whole cow in these parts, but make no mistake: The biggest games are still amazing events. The nonconference portion of the 2023 season offers plenty of exciting and telling matchups, and the home stretch is absolutely loaded.

Based on preseason projections, here are the two biggest games of each week when it comes to combined SP+ ratings. (Games between two projected top-10 teams are in bold.)

Aug. 31: Florida at Utah

Sept. 3: Florida State vs. LSU

Sept. 9: Texas at Alabama, Oregon at Texas Tech

Sept. 16: South Carolina at Georgia, Tennessee at Florida

Sept. 23: Ohio State at Notre Dame, Ole Miss at Alabama

Sept. 30: Georgia at Auburn, LSU at Ole Miss

Oct. 7: Alabama at Texas A&M, Kentucky at Georgia

Oct. 14: Texas A&M at Tennessee, USC at Notre Dame

Oct. 21: Penn State at Ohio State, Tennessee at Alabama

Oct. 28: Ohio State at Wisconsin, Florida vs. Georgia

Nov. 4: LSU at Alabama, Notre Dame at Clemson

Nov. 11: Michigan at Penn State, Ole Miss at Georgia

Nov. 18: Georgia at Tennessee, Minnesota at Ohio State

Nov. 25: Ohio State at Michigan, Texas A&M at LSU

That’s six top-eight vs. top-eight (per SP+) matchups in the last six weeks of the season. Hell yes.


The Pepto-Bismol All-Stars

We’re getting a trade-off of sorts with the new clock rules that will go into effect this fall. On one hand, the overall number of plays will go down a bit (my estimate is by about 5%), which means fewer points and yards. Points and yards are fun, so boo to that. But on the other hand, (A) games were indeed too long, and (B) in theory, fewer points, yards and, most importantly, possessions means that teams don’t have as many opportunities to pull away from each other. That could mean closer games and, in theory, more upsets.

Certain teams will be playing in an inordinate number of close games. According to my final preseason SP+ projections, there are a whopping 20 teams with at least seven games projected to finish within one score (~7.5 points), including three teams with nine such games. You will want to be watching at least the fourth quarter of many of their games this year.

  • 9 tight games: New Mexico State, Northern Illinois, UTEP

  • 8 tight games: Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, UNLV

  • 7 tight games: Ball State, Hawaii, Liberty, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Navy, Nevada, Ohio, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, UAB, UCF, Virginia Tech

There are 10 more teams that (A) are projected in the SP+ top 40 and (B) have at least six such tight games: Arkansas, Baylor, Florida, Kansas State, Kentucky, Missouri, Ole Miss, TCU, Texas A&M, Utah.

After the fire hose of Week 1, every week of the season features at least two games that involve the teams above and have a projected margin of three or fewer points. Be prepared to watch quite a bit of these games. (And since eight of the teams above are in the Big 12 — over half the conference! — be prepared to watch so very much of that wonderfully chaotic conference.) Here’s a selection:

Aug. 26: UTEP at Jacksonville State

Sept. 9: UCF at Boise State, Marshall at East Carolina, UAB at Georgia Southern

Sept. 16: Kansas State at Missouri, Virginia Tech at Rutgers, NMSU at New Mexico

Sept. 23: North Carolina at Pitt, Oklahoma State at Iowa State, Virginia Tech at Marshall, UNLV at UTEP, Nevada at Texas State

Sept. 30: Florida at Kentucky, Cincinnati at BYU (Sept. 29), Baylor at UCF, Louisiana Tech at UTEP (Sept. 29), Ball State at WMU

Oct. 7: Kansas State at Oklahoma State (Oct. 6), Texas Tech at Baylor, North Texas at Navy, NIU at Akron, Ball State at EMU

Oct. 14: Kansas State at Texas Tech, Florida at South Carolina, Iowa State at Cincinnati, Ohio at NIU, Sam Houston at NMSU (Oct. 11)

Oct. 21: TCU at Kansas State, Ole Miss at Auburn, Mississippi State at Arkansas, JMU at Marshall (Oct. 19), South Carolina at Missouri, Pitt at Wake Forest, Hawaii at New Mexico

Oct. 28: Oregon at Utah, UTEP at Sam Houston (Oct. 25)

Nov. 4: TCU at Texas Tech (Nov. 2), Texas A&M at Ole Miss, Kentucky at Mississippi State, UCF at Cincinnati, Marshall at Appalachian State, Navy at Temple

Nov. 11: Utah at Washington, Auburn at Arkansas, Cincinnati at Houston, Oklahoma State at UCF, Virginia Tech at Boston College, UAB at Navy, Ohio at Buffalo (Nov. 7), Ball State at NIU (Nov. 7)

Nov. 18: Florida at Missouri, Kentucky at South Carolina, Cincinnati at WVU, WMU at NIU (Nov. 14), ECU at Navy, Nevada at Colorado State

Nov. 25: Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Nov. 23), Florida State at Florida, Virginia Tech at Virginia, Kentucky at Louisville, Pitt at Duke, Colorado State at Hawaii

Dec. 9: Army vs. Navy

Weeks 8 and 11 (in bold) could be absolutely incredible, especially considering Week 8 also includes Penn State-Ohio State and Tennessee-Alabama and Week 11 also includes Michigan-Penn State and one of Georgia’s better upset opportunities (against Ole Miss).


Best. Midweek slate. Ever.

We got used to weeknights being part of our college football experience years ago. Back in the day, we had a number of Thursday night classics, and handing over Tuesday and Wednesday nights to the MAC in November is an absolute tradition at this point.

A lot of other conferences have jumped on the weeknights bandwagon, however, from the Big Ten and Big 12 to this weird, new version of Conference USA. We can debate whether that’s good for the athletes (or the fans in attendance), but there’s no question that it could be really good for our eyeballs in 2023. This year’s Monday-through-Friday slate is quite tasty. Here are some of my favorites:

Week 1: Florida at Utah (Aug. 31), Nebraska at Minnesota (Aug. 31), Louisville vs. Georgia Tech (Sept. 1), Stanford at Hawaii (Sept. 1), Clemson at Duke (Sept. 4)

Week 2: Illinois at Kansas (Sept. 8)

Week 3: Army at UTSA (Sept. 15), Virginia at Maryland (Sept. 15)

Week 4: Georgia State at Coastal Carolina (Sept. 21), Wisconsin at Purdue (Sept. 22), Boise State at San Diego State (Sept. 22)

Week 5: Jacksonville State at Sam Houston (Sept. 28), Utah at Oregon State (Sept. 29), Cincinnati at BYU (Sept. 29)

Week 6: WKU at Louisiana Tech (Oct. 5), Kansas State at Oklahoma State (Oct. 6)

Week 7: Louisiana Tech at MTSU (Oct. 10), UTEP at FIU (Oct. 11), West Virginia at Houston (Oct. 12), Tulane at Memphis (Oct. 13)

Week 8: Southern Miss at South Alabama (Oct. 17), NMSU at UTEP (Oct. 18), JMU at Marshall (Oct. 19)

Week 9: Syracuse at Virginia Tech (Oct. 26), Georgia State at Georgia Southern (Oct. 26)

Week 10: Buffalo at Toledo (Oct. 31), NIU at CMU (Oct. 31), Ball State at Bowling Green (Nov. 1), TCU at Texas Tech (Nov. 2), South Alabama at Troy (Nov. 2)

Week 11: Ball State at NIU (Nov. 7), Ohio at Buffalo (Nov. 7), Virginia at Louisville (Nov. 9), North Texas at SMU (Nov. 10)

Week 12: WMU at NIU (Nov. 14), Boston College at Pitt (Nov. 16), Colorado at Washington State (Nov. 17)

Week 13: Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Nov. 23), Oregon State at Oregon (Nov. 24), Texas Tech at Texas (Nov. 24), TCU at Oklahoma (Nov. 24), Missouri at Arkansas (Nov. 24), Penn State at Michigan State (Nov. 24)

Weeks 4-5 are nice table-setters, but honestly Week 10 might have the best set of weeknight games we’ve ever seen. We open MACtion with a particularly even set of contests, and then we get not only TCU-Texas Tech — maybe the single most “chaos potential!” game on the Big 12 docket — but also South Alabama-Troy, one of the biggest Sun Belt games of the year. That is spectacular.


Root for Oregon State and Washington State

In the 1990s, when the Southwest Conference dissolved and only half of it was absorbed into the new Big 12, the Houston Cougars, Rice Owls, SMU Mustangs and TCU Horned Frogs went from members of a power conference to mid-major status virtually overnight. TCU and Houston slowly worked their way back into the power-conference picture, but SMU is still trying and Rice appears pretty far back in the distance. (In fairness, Rice was pretty far back in the SWC, too.)

In the early-2010s, when the Big East lost key members and lost power-conference status while becoming the AAC, the Cincinnati Bearcats, Louisville Cardinals, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, UConn Huskies and USF Bulls were left behind. Louisville (ACC) and Rutgers (Big Ten) found quick bailout options, and Cincinnati’s long run of success — it has never really been a mid-major football program, even when it technically was one — earned the school a long-deserved Big 12 invitation last year. But UConn is now an FBS independent, stuck without obvious geographic options up north, and USF has now been left behind again, remaining in the AAC while rival UCF also made its way to the Big 12.

The sport’s power structure continues to funnel toward a smaller and smaller number of schools and conferences, and any time there’s a realignment-related lurch, some end up screwed because of it. We don’t know for sure what will happen with the four remaining Pac-12 teams that didn’t land spots in the Big Ten or Big 12 — the Cal Bears, Stanford Cardinal, Oregon State Beavers and Washington State Cougars — but while Cal and Stanford might still score an ACC bailout, OSU and Wazzu appear almost destined to end up in either a rebuilt and dramatically diminished Pac-12 (which features a number of current mid-major programs) or the Mountain West. They’re pretty much guaranteed a step down in status despite the fact that Oregon State and Washington State have been more well-run recently than three of the four programs that are leaving for the Big 12. Geography and market size are hurting them, and strong 2023 campaigns for either or both programs won’t help much in the long term, but … damned if it wouldn’t feel pretty good in the short term, huh?

Oregon State, in particular, is coming off one of its best seasons in 16 years, and while the top half of the Pac-12 is loaded this fall, it would be awfully fun to watch Jonathan Smith’s Beavers snare some wins over the departing teams … or maybe just win the conference outright.

No matter what, though, these teams’ home games against the departing schools should be awfully raucous, must-watch experiences. Here are those notable weekends:

Sept. 29: Utah at Oregon State

Oct. 14: UCLA at Oregon State, Arizona at Washington State

Nov. 18: Washington at Oregon State, Colorado at Washington State (Nov. 17)

It stinks that neither OSU nor Wazzu is hosting their big in-state rivalry game this year. But there should still be some fun and hostile games in there.


Iowa points watch

The Drive to 325 is on. Justifiably maligned Iowa Hawkeyes offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, son of head coach Kirk Ferentz, has overseen one of the most appalling offenses in the country of late. The Hawkeyes averaged just 23.4 points per game in 2021 and, despite a nation’s-best six defensive touchdowns, only 17.7 per game in 2022. Ferentz kept his job and a robust salary, but his amended and incentives-heavy contract will require Iowa to score 25 points per game and win at least seven games to reach full compensation.

That average would have ranked 85th in FBS last season. It also includes defensive and special teams scores. In other words, the bar is incredibly low here. However, this should create a morbidly curious air around Hawkeye games this fall. I plan on soaking this in.

Wisconsin pass watch

I’ve cracked myself up all offseason imagining the Wisconsin Badgers coming out for their first snap of the season (against Buffalo on Sept. 2) in a five-wide formation and picturing the crowd reacting like the old fans in “Varsity Blues” when Johnny Moxon introduces the oopty-oop formation. [counting receivers on fingers] “One … two … three … four … five??”

It probably won’t be that much of a shock to Wisconsin fans when new coordinator Phil Longo unleashes his tempo- and often pass-heavy system — among other things, Longo offenses lean mostly on three-receiver sets and still produce 1,000-yard rushers. But head coach Luke Fickell’s hiring of Longo was one of the most jarring and intriguing hires of the offseason. Can Longo and a bevy of quarterback and receiver transfers create a cohesive system out of the gate? And can a land of big running backs and huge offensive linemen produce a consistent and threatening passing game, even deep into a blustery November?


The Deion Sanders experience

You could make the case that the Colorado Buffaloes scored a Big 12 bid a few weeks ago based solely on Deion Sanders’ charisma. The Buffaloes have been among the worst power-conference programs in the country for most of 20 years now, but they grabbed constant offseason headlines because of Sanders, their first-year head coach, and his complete detonation of the roster. Almost no one from last season’s dreadful team remains on the roster, and Sanders has signed well over 50 transfers.

How will this work out? It’s almost impossible to say because there’s no precedent. But the Buffaloes’ schedule is loaded with headline games — at TCU in Week 1, Nebraska in Week 2, at Oregon in Week 4, USC in Week 5 — and they’ll be a must-watch team for much of the season, at least until iffy depth catches up to them.


Ride the Joe Milton wave

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Look out for these potential SEC upsets in 2023

SEC Now analyst Matt Stinchcomb breaks down four scenarios this season where an underdog team could walk away with a stunning upset win.

He’s got maybe the strongest arm in college football, and both his and the Tennessee Volunteers‘ upside make him the most important player of the season. He could also be benched for freshman, and former four-star recruit, Nicholaus Iamaleava within a few weeks. Heisman … anonymity … everything’s on the table for Milton in 2023.


Watch the mid-major standouts

Transfer portal departures and the recent run of conference realignment — which relocated the AAC’s Cincinnati, Houston and UCF (plus BYU) to the Big 12 — has seemingly drained the talent pool at the Group of Five level. But it didn’t drain us of high-level quarterbacks.

There were four G5 QBs on ESPN’s top 100 players list for 2023 — UTSA’s Frank Harris (No. 32), Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall (No. 53), Western Kentucky’s Austin Reed (No. 84) and Tulane’s Michael Pratt (No. 99) — and you could have made a solid case for others like Ohio’s Kurtis Rourke, SJSU’s Chevan Cordeiro, Toledo’s Dequan Finn and maybe even Boise State’s Taylen Green as well. And in addition, JT Daniels, the injury-plagued former five-star recruit and former starter at USC, Georgia and West Virginia, will take his big arm to Houston to finish his career at Rice.

Nonconference play will give almost all of these quarterbacks opportunities to shine against big-name opponents. We’ll get some head-to-head matchups, too:

Aug. 26: Ohio at San Diego State (Rourke), SJSU at USC (Cordeiro)

Sept. 2: Coastal Carolina at UCLA (McCall), Oregon State at SJSU (Cordeiro), Boise State at Washington (Green), Toledo at Illinois (Finn), Rice at Texas (Daniels)

Sept. 9: Tulane at Ole Miss (Pratt)

Sept. 16: WKU at Ohio State (Reed), SJSU at Toledo (Cordeiro vs. Finn)

Sept. 23: UTSA at Tennessee (Harris)

Oct. 7: SJSU at Boise State (Cordeiro vs. Green)

Oct. 14: Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State (McCall) (Oct. 10)

Oct. 28: Marshall at Coastal Carolina (McCall), Tulane at Rice (Pratt vs. Daniels)

Nov. 25: UTSA at Tulane (Harris vs. Pratt)

There are plenty of G5 stars outside of the quarterback position — Southern Miss RB Frank Gore Jr., Marshall RB Rasheen Ali, Colorado State WR Tory Horton, UTEP WR Tyrin Smith, Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell, South Alabama nickel Yam Banks — and you should check them out, too. But the signal-callers are a must.


Watch as much smaller-school football as you can

It’s one of my annual messages: The more small-school ball you watch, the healthier you become. In my Friday preview columns during the season, I always try to identify at least one smaller-school game to keep an eye on, but here are two games per week that, either because of rivalry, competitiveness or high preseason poll rankings, are all but guaranteed to rock.

Note: The rankings below come from different sources. I used preseason coaches polls for FCS, Division II and Division III, and in their absence, I used last year’s final poll for NAIA.

Sept. 2: No. 5 Trinity (Texas) at No. 6 St. John’s (D3), No. 2 Grand Valley State at No. 11 Colorado Mines (Aug. 31). The GVSU-Mines battle pits one of D2’s most established brands against one of its best up-and-comers. (It also pits two great mascots you should Google: Blaster the Burro vs. Louie the Laker.)

Sept. 9: No. 3 Montana State at No. 1 South Dakota State (FCS), No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 5 Trinity (Texas) (D3). A couple of big-time matchups here. In the former, you’ve got the defending FCS champion against the 2021 runner-up. In the latter, it’s an established annual title contender (UMHB) against what is frequently its stiffest local competition.

Sept. 16: No. 1 Ferris State (D2) at No. 14 Montana (FCS), No. 7 West Florida at Florida A&M (D2/FCS). Crossover week! Two of D2’s best take on FCS name brands.

Sept. 23: No. 10 Sacramento State at No. 8 Idaho (FCS), No. 22 West Georgia at No. 7 West Florida (D2). The Big Sky should again be loaded with potential top-15 teams, and Sac State-Idaho pits two of last year’s more pleasant surprises against each other.

Sept. 30: No. 1 North Central at No. 17 Wheaton (D3), No. 3 Grand Valley State at Saginaw Valley State (D2). Saginaw Valley is typically good for an upset scare against either GVSU or Ferris State in a given year and should honestly be at least a top-20 team in the polls.

Oct. 7: No. 15 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 7 Incarnate Word (FCS), Saginaw Valley State at No. 1 Ferris State (D2). The last three SELA-UIW games have averaged 95 combined points and 1,218 yards. Last year’s game featured only 76 and 972, respectively, and it felt like a massive letdown.

Oct. 14: No. 1 Ferris State at No. 3 Grand Valley State (D2), No. 6 Furman at No. 9 Samford (FCS). Furman and Samford have been quietly building sturdy FCS programs, but the headliner here is the Anchor-Bone Classic. Since 2017, FSU and GVSU have played seven times (including playoff games), and six have been decided by one score, including last season’s two meetings. The biggest game of the D2 regular season.

Oct. 21: No. 3 Montana State at No. 10 Sacramento State (FCS), No. 4 Pittsburg State at No. 6 Northwest Missouri (D2). Another huge Big Sky battle and the biggest D2 game in the Midwest.

Oct. 28: No. 1 Morningside (Iowa) at No. 3 Northwestern (Iowa) (NAIA), No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 12 Hardin-Simmons (D3). And here’s the biggest game of the NAIA regular season. Northwestern won the national title last season, thanks in part to Morningside’s upset loss in the quarterfinals.

Nov. 4: No. 2 North Dakota State at No. 1 South Dakota State (FCS), No. 2 Mount Union at John Carroll (D3). NDSU-SDSU, a game so big that it’s attracted College GameDay. There’s no reason to think the Dakota Marker will be any less huge this season.

Nov. 11: No. 8 Lindsey Wilson at No. 4 Bethel (Tenn.) (NAIA), No. 8 Idaho at No. 13 Weber State (FCS). By mid-November, the playoffs are looming quickly on the horizon, especially for D2 and D3. But LWC-Bethel is still a huge annual occurrence, and the Big Sky never stops cranking out big matchups.

Nov. 18: No. 3 Montana State at No. 14 Montana (FCS), No. 18 Richmond at No. 4 William & Mary (FCS). Montana is not picked quite as high as normal this season, but Brawl of the Wild — another former “College GameDay” matchup — is never anything but huge.

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MLB Power Rankings: A red-hot NL team surges up to debut at No. 1

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MLB Power Rankings: A red-hot NL team surges up to debut at No. 1

We have a new team atop our power rankings after the first week of the second half. Make way for Milwaukee!

The Brewers were the biggest riser in Week 17, going from No. 9 in our final rankings before the All-Star break to No. 1 as we approach the end of July. The No. 2 team this week? A familiar foe of the Brewers: the division-rival Cubs, who are now one game behind Milwaukee for second place in the National League Central.

Meanwhile, in the American League, the Tigers have been overtaken by the Astros and Blue Jays for best record in the league. The Yankees are now four games behind Toronto in the East and sit at No. 9 on our list, their lowest ranking of the season. New York will look to add ahead of next week’s trade deadline (July 31) to make a push down the stretch run.

Where does every team stand in our first power rankings since the All-Star break?

Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with analysis on the biggest priority of the second half for all 30 teams.

Second-half preview | Week 15 | Preseason rankings


Record: 61-41
Previous ranking: 9

The Brewers’ biggest strength is self-awareness. They know what they do best and never stray from it. What they do now is pitch well (3.34 starters’ ERA, second lowest in the majors), play great defense (23 outs above average, second most in baseball), run the bases better than any other team (12 base running outs above average) and do the little things right offensively (take walks, put the ball in play, advance runners). The Brewers have won 30 of 43 games since the start of June, and that is no accident. If there’s one thing they would love, though, it’s for William Contreras to revert back to his prior offensive form. — Gonzalez


Record: 60-42
Previous ranking: 3

There might not be a bigger need among contenders than the Cubs’ desire to add a starting pitcher. Chicago’s offense has performed like one of the best in the sport, and the Cubs bullpen was good enough throughout May and June to ease concerns about its struggles in July. But if the Cubs want to hold off Milwaukee in the NL Central and make a deep run in October, they’ll need to add another arm alongside Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. Jameson Taillon should return from a calf strain around the middle of August, but Chicago is going to need another impact arm for its rotation. — Gonzalez


Record: 60-43
Previous ranking: 1

In some respects, Detroit’s recent swoon is a blessing in disguise. The Tigers’ lead in the AL Central is still double-digit sturdy — according to Fangraphs, the chances of them winning the division stand at 93.3% — and soon, they’ll get Kerry Carpenter back for their lineup. But the recent losses have fully highlighted the team’s need for one or even two power arms at the back end of their bullpen since the Tigers seem to have a real opportunity to reach the World Series. If the Cardinals decide to trade Ryan Helsley, the Tigers will almost certainly be among the bidders. — Olney


Record: 60-43
Previous ranking: 2

Four Dodgers relievers who were far from expected to pitch high leverage when the season began — Ben Casparius, Alexis Diaz, Will Klein and Edgardo Henriquez — allowed six runs in a span of two innings against the Twins on Tuesday night, turning a tight game into a rout. The Dodgers eventually lost for the 11th time in a stretch of 14 games, by which point their bullpen ranked 24th in the majors in ERA, WHIP and opponents’ OPS. They have been playing all-around bad baseball of late — offensively, defensively, on the mound — but the bullpen is the focus with the trade deadline approaching. — Gonzalez


Record: 60-42
Previous ranking: 6

It’s nearly August and the Blue Jays are in first place, atop the only division in the majors with four teams over .500 despite a run differential that suggests they’re six games worse. It’s beyond time to take them seriously. To continue surpassing expectations, they’ll need to continue their brand of ball, which centers around not striking out. Toronto’s 17.4% strikeout rate is the lowest in the majors by more than a percentage point and would be the lowest by a team for a season since the 2017 Astros. The Jays put pressure on teams by putting the ball in play, and it’s working. — Castillo


Record: 58-44
Previous ranking: 5

The Phillies have the starting pitching for a World Series run. They could use an upgrade to their outfield at the trade deadline, but the lineup is battle-tested with star power. The bullpen, however, is another matter. Left-hander Jose Alvarado is eligible to return from his PED suspension in mid-August. While he should bolster the bullpen for the stretch run, he isn’t eligible to pitch in the postseason, so solidifying the relief corps for October — should the Phillies reach the playoffs — is the top priority.

They began addressing the concern this week by signing 40-year-old David Robertson for a third stint with the organization. Expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to scour the trade market for more knowing that starters left out of the rotation in October could instead become contributors out of the bullpen. — Castillo


Record: 60-42
Previous ranking: 4

Some team executives don’t place a high value on club culture and chemistry, not trusting something that can’t really be quantified. But those front office-types should at least consider what’s happened in Houston this season: In a year after Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker moved on, the Astros have continued to win even while seeing their biggest stars (Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena and now Isaac Paredes) go down with injuries. Moving forward, the 2025 Astros just need to keep surviving — and winning — while they wait for their stars to return. — Olney


Record: 59-44
Previous ranking: 7

Oh, look, another contender with pitching concerns. While there are questions about the Mets’ rotation — from the lack of a true No. 1 starter to Clay Holmes‘ drastically increased workload to whether Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea can rediscover their previous form upon recent reinstatement from the injured list — David Stearns told reporters this week that his top objective before the trade deadline is acquiring help for a bullpen that is operating on fumes. If that doesn’t happen, the president of baseball operations said he will explore calling up top starting pitching prospects to serve as relievers in the majors for the balance of this season. However it’s done, upgrading the bullpen is atop the list of priorities. — Castillo


Record: 56-46
Previous ranking: 8

As general manager Brian Cashman has plainly outlined, the Yankees have holes in their pitching staff that he wants to fill before the trade deadline. But the best pitcher the Yankees add in the coming weeks may already be on their payroll. Luis Gil is slated to come off the IL to make his season debut by early August. If all goes right, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year should provide a boost to the Yankees’ starting rotation for their playoff push. They also could use him out of the bullpen in October should they decide he’s a better fit there. Whatever the role, he’s an important piece for their championship hopes. — Castillo


Record: 54-48
Previous ranking: 12

If you’re looking for the sleeper team in the AL, there are a lot of signs that Seattle could emerge into a dangerous team by September. The talented rotation, hammered by injuries this season, could finally be intact when Bryce Miller returns sometime in early August. Since June 29, the Mariners have had one of the most productive offenses, hitting more homers than every team except the Yankees and averaging about five runs per game. And Seattle’s not done yet — president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is expected to add corner infield production before the deadline. — Olney


Record: 55-47
Previous ranking: 13

The Padres have practically labeled themselves a second-half team, a nod to the 2024 group that won 34 of 52 games in August and September. To accomplish that this year, though, general manager A.J. Preller will have to give them a boost offensively. The Padres have scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball this season. The Nos. 7, 8 and 9 hitters of their lineup have combined for a .580 OPS, lowest in the majors. Yu Darvish remaining healthy and Michael King rejoining the rotation are paramount to a team that has seen a lot of its depth get traded away in recent years. Most of all, though, they need a bat — or two. — Gonzalez


Record: 55-49
Previous ranking: 14

Walker Buehler‘s 5.72 ERA is the sixth highest in the majors among the 105 pitchers with at least 80 innings thrown this season, and his strikeout-to-walk rate ranks 95th. He has the fourth-highest home run rate. It’s been a frustrating year for the right-hander. But Buehler posted one of his best starts of the season Monday when he held the Phillies to two runs (one earned) across seven innings. It’s still not quite the high-octane vintage Buehler — his fastball is average 94 mph, nearly three mph slower than his peak years in Los Angeles, in his first full season after his second Tommy John surgery — but his getting on track could make a substantial impact on Boston’s postseason hopes. — Castillo


Record: 53-50
Previous ranking: 10

Major League Baseball has decided that Tampa Bay will play postseason home games at Steinbrenner Field if it qualifies. Now, it’s all about the Rays not letting their road-heavy second-half schedule — created to avoid the miserable heat and relentless rain without a roof in Tampa — hijack their chances. Beginning Friday in Cincinnati, they will play 37 of their remaining 59 games away from Steinbrenner Field. That split includes a two-week, four-city, 12-game West Coast road trip in August. That trek could very well decide their season. — Castillo


Record: 54-49
Previous ranking: 11

The Rafael Devers trade was widely hailed as the type of move that could put the Giants over the top, but the opposite has occurred. Since the shocking move to acquire Devers (and the entirety of his contract) on June 15, the Giants are just 13-18 and their offense sports the sixth-lowest OPS in the sport at .685. Willy Adames has turned his season around, but practically everybody else — Mike Yastrzemski, Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and, notably, Devers — has slumped. The Giants might be able to make additional lineup additions on the margins, but their big move has been made. They just need their hitters to step up. — Gonzalez


Record: 53-50
Previous ranking: 18

Manager Bruce Bochy said over the weekend that he sensed a turnaround for the club’s sluggish offense shortly before the All-Star break, with the team doing a better job of putting the ball in play. The Rangers have played better of late, making the question of whether to trade for or away talent easier for president of baseball operations Chris Young. With Jake Burger and Joc Pederson on the IL, executives with other teams speculate that Texas will add a first baseman before the deadline, whether it’s someone like the D-Backs’ Josh Naylor or maybe the Nationals’ Nathaniel Lowe. — Olney


Record: 53-50
Previous ranking: 16

The Reds have the makings of a really good team, with a standout group of starters, a dynamic offense and a Hall of Fame manager in Terry Francona. But they have yet to find their footing, and at this point, it’s fair to wonder if they ever will. One thing they can do to help that cause, perhaps, is add an outfielder. Reds outfielders have combined to slash only .242/.326/.376 this season. Bringing in someone like Luis Robert Jr., Jarren Duran or Adolis Garcia is the type of move that might finally get this team going, especially with Hunter Greene (groin injury) nearing a rehab assignment. But adding an impact bat seems unlikely. — Gonzalez


Record: 52-51
Previous ranking: 15

The Cardinals finished the month of May eight games over .500 and tied with the Padres for the final wild-card spot. They then split 28 games in June and followed it with 12 losses through their first 17 games in July. With the trade deadline a week away, they find themselves among a bevy of teams occupying an uncomfortable middle space — open to trading away rental players but not willing to fully give up on 2025 just yet, especially with John Mozeliak, their longtime president of baseball operations, stepping away at season’s end. St. Louis will part with some of its best relievers, but its focus should be on doing what it can to find some controllable starting pitching help. — Gonzalez


Record: 50-53
Previous ranking: 17

The D-backs’ biggest priority over this next week is clarity, though it won’t be fully realized. The playoff field is still too muddled. The trade deadline, thus, is too early. And they only convoluted matters with a weekend sweep of the Cardinals. Still, though, the D-backs find themselves far enough out of the race — not to mention injured enough throughout their pitching staff — to make punting on 2025 the prudent choice. A bevy of their pending free agents are expected to be available. General manager Mike Hazen will be tasked with making long-term moves at the trade deadline without compromising the current team. — Gonzalez


Record: 51-50
Previous ranking: 22

With the Guardians in a very different place in the standings this year compared to last season, they are expected to weigh opportunities to maximize the possible trade return for some of their veterans. The player drawing the most inquiries is Steven Kwan, whose skill set would fit a number of contenders, with his high rate of contact, good speed and strong defense. But Kwan will be arbitration eligible for a couple of more winters, which gives the Guardians time to wait — probably into 2026 — for a team to meet their asking price. — Olney


Record: 50-53
Previous ranking: 19

This is the specific time of year when a small sample size matters — when one good outing can make all the difference — and that’s why a small cadre of rival evaluators closely watched Seth Lugo‘s start against the Cubs on Wednesday. But whether Lugo is traded before the deadline or not, the Royals’ primary focus seems to be — not surprisingly — on upgrading their brutal outfield production. That means continuing to give Jac Caglianone the reps he needs as he adjusts to major league pitching. That means looking for opportunities, as the Marlins did with Kyle Stowers, to land hitters under team control through 2026 and beyond. — Olney


Record: 49-53
Previous ranking: 20

Other teams expect Minnesota will deal before the deadline. But no matter who goes — some rival execs are skeptical that the team would seriously consider dealing Joe Ryan — the Twins need to get major league ready players or prospects who help set them up for the future. The front office is stuck in something of a waiting game, with the franchise’s sale still being shaped. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff presumably can’t grow the payroll and take on debt in this period. Resolution of the ownership situation needs to happen before Minnesota can fully build a roster. — Olney


Record: 49-53
Previous ranking: 21

The Angels are among the teams sitting on the fence as the deadline approaches, but they’ve dropped four of six games coming out of the All-Star break at a time when a small sample size matters. No matter what happens between now and July 31, however, what remains paramount for the Angels is the development of their young players. First baseman Nolan Schanuel — still only 23 years old — is having a good season, and Zach Neto has accumulated a more than respectable 3.4 WAR. Jo Adell has 21 homers. But more is needed. — Olney


Record: 44-57
Previous ranking: 24

It’s been another nightmare season for the Braves, riddled with terrible injury luck and unexpected poor performances from key players. Michael Harris II‘s struggles are perhaps the most alarming. The center fielder is batting .214. His .559 OPS and 50 wRC+ rank 159th out of baseball’s 159 qualified hitters, while his 2.8% walk rate is tied for 159th.

It’s been a stunning downturn for a player in his age-24 season who’s only three years removed from posting 4.8 fWAR with a .853 OPS as a rookie — a first year so encouraging that the Braves signed him to an eight-year, $72 million extension that August. Harris’ glove and speed are still valuable — maybe valuable enough to absorb his offensive regression — but a turnaround at the plate in the second half will ease Atlanta’s concerns. — Castillo


Record: 48-53
Previous ranking: 23

The Marlins have turned a corner this season. Since June 10, they’re 23-13 — good for the second-best record in the NL. Zoom out further and they’ve been 35-35 since May 1. Outfielder Kyle Stowers is a legitimate All-Star and franchise player. Eury Perez has looked sharp in his return from Tommy John surgery. Otto Lopez has compiled 3 bWAR. The franchise is trending in the right direction. The final two-plus months is about continuing development, unearthing other future contributors and finishing the year with positive momentum. — Castillo


Record: 44-57
Previous ranking: 25

Besides unloading impending free agents for young talent at the deadline, the Orioles’ other significant second-half move with an eye toward 2026 could be promoting top prospect Samuel Basallo to the majors. The towering catcher (6-foot-4) will likely primarily play first base and DH in the majors with Adley Rutschman expected to return from injury soon, but Basallo’s bat is the priority. He has gigantic power that has clicked this season at Triple-A Norfolk, where he’s hitting .264 with 19 home runs and a .974 OPS in 62 games at just 20 years old. It shouldn’t be long before he’s in Baltimore. — Castillo


Record: 42-61
Previous ranking: 26

Paul Skenes boasts a 1.91 ERA, the lowest among qualified starters. His record: 5-8. Any hopes of building around the game’s best young pitcher will hinge around the Pirates’ ability to add offense, a painstaking process that will continue with this year’s trade deadline. The front office will be fielding a lot of calls about Mitch Keller, David Bednar, Dennis Santana and potentially Bryan Reynolds, among others, over the next week. It is crucial that they leverage them for the types of hitters they’ve struggled to find. — Gonzalez


Record: 42-62
Previous ranking: 27

The A’s have established a formidable group of position players in Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Nick Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom. But if the franchise is going to take a serious step forward before the move to Las Vegas, it will need to build a pitching staff, and it’s unclear whether the A’s will do that over the next couple of years. Their investment in Luis Severino has been a bust. Other teams say 32-year-old Jeffrey Springs might be available for the right offer. And let’s be real, the ballpark in Sacramento doesn’t foster pitching. The A’s have the second-worst home ERA in the majors at 5.36. — Olney


Record: 41-61
Previous ranking: 28

The Nationals have an exciting core of young position players, led by 22-year-old All-Star James Wood. Now it’s about figuring out which pitchers are part of the future. All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore figures to continue as the staff ace with two years of team control remaining after this season, though a trade for a substantial haul isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Relievers Brad Lord and Cole Henry, both 25, have posted strong campaigns. Cade Cavalli, a 2020 first-round draft pick, is nearing a return from a Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for all of the 2023 season and most of 2024.

However, Gore is the only Nationals starter with an ERA under 4.80 this season, and the bullpen ranks last in the majors in ERA. Discovering and developing the next wave of pitching talent is paramount. — Castillo


Record: 37-66
Previous ranking: 29

Sometime in the next couple of weeks, the White Sox will likely surpass their 2024 win total of 41. While another 100-loss season seems likely, there is clear growth happening with the roster, and this will continue to be the focus for the team. Pitchers such as Sean Burke and Shane Smith and position players such as Kyle Teel are gaining experience. There are teams interested in acquiring the talented Luis Robert Jr. (hello, Padres), and for the right return, the White Sox will trade him before the deadline. — Olney


Record: 26-76
Previous ranking: 30

The Rockies have quietly played better baseball of late, going from winning an abysmal 16% of their games in March, April and May to a more respectable — though obviously still not good — 39% of their games in June and July. The record for most losses in modern baseball history is still within reach, and here’s the thing: The Rockies should not care. They need to approach this trade deadline with a mindset that they haven’t carried into enough of them — of unloading accomplished veterans to acquire as much young talent as possible. Early indications are that they’re wide-open to that, regardless of what it might mean for the final two months of this season. That’s a good thing. — Gonzalez

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Pete Rose history on display at Baseball Hall of Fame

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Pete Rose history on display at Baseball Hall of Fame

This weekend, tens of thousands of fans are expected to travel to Cooperstown, New York, as they do annually, to pay homage to new inductees and returning members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, visit the Hall and see an array of artifacts from the greats of the game — including Major League Baseball’s all-time hits leader, Pete Rose.

Rose, whose name has never been allowed to appear on a Hall of Fame ballot, died in September at age 83. In May, commissioner Rob Manfred removed Rose and other deceased individuals from MLB’s permanently ineligible list, making Rose newly eligible for election to the Hall.

But Rose’s presence in the Hall’s exhibits didn’t require the action of a commissioner. The legendary “Charlie Hustle” has been there for decades, a constant in the museum’s presentation of the history of the game, with numerous pieces that he donated to the Hall. Rose, of course, is not a Hall of Famer, but fans have long been able to see him and his accomplishments represented in at least a dozen items on display, including bats and a ball, a cap, cleats, a jersey and more connected with his 4,256 hits, record numbers of games played and at-bats and myriad awards. The 17-time All-Star at a record five positions won three World Series titles and proudly referred to himself as the winningest player ever.

MLB banished Rose in 1989 after an investigation it commissioned found Rose, then the manager of the Cincinnati Reds, had bet on the sport and his own team’s games. Two years later, the Hall of Fame’s board decided anyone on MLB’s permanently ineligible list would also be ineligible for election to the Hall. That became known as “the Pete Rose rule.”

For nearly 15 years after baseball banned him, Rose repeatedly denied that he had bet on the sport. Before, and long after, his 2004 admission to having gambled on baseball games — including Reds games — during part of his managerial tenure with Cincinnati, Rose was a fixture in Cooperstown for induction weekends, signing and selling his autographs at a memorabilia store.

Just a block away at the Hall were Sparky Anderson, Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan and Tony Perez of the 1975 and ’76 “Big Red Machine” championship teams with Rose, and Steve Carlton and Mike Schmidt of the 1980 Philadelphia Phillies with whom Rose won a championship, as well as several other teammates from his 24 seasons.

The Hall’s “Whole New Ballgame” exhibit, devoted to the era from 1970 to the present, features a Rose jersey from the 1973 season, when he won the National League Most Valuable Player Award; the ball and a ticket from the 1981 game when he tied Stan Musial’s National League hits record; and a 1978 can of a chocolate-flavored beverage named “Pete,” bearing a Rose action photo.

The section of the Hall that chronicles many of the game’s most hallowed records is titled “One for the Books.” It showcases Rose’s shoes and a scoresheet from his crowning achievement, Sept. 11, 1985, when he broke Ty Cobb’s career hits record. Also displayed is a pair of Rose bats from 1978, when he reached the 3,000-hit milestone and later tied the 1897 National League-record 44-game hitting streak by Wee Willie Keeler, and Rose’s Montreal Expos cap from 1984 when he broke Carl Yastrzemski’s record for games played.

In “Shoebox Treasures,” which examines the baseball cards phenomenon, visitors can see the Rose Topps card from 1975 and two Topps cards — one authentic and one counterfeit — from ’63, when he was named National League Rookie of the Year.

There is also an interactive exhibit on the subject of gambling that includes the Rose saga.

And according to the Hall, its archives contain dozens of holdings pertaining to Rose, from recorded interviews — including with Howard Stern — to correspondence and collectibles, as well as the investigative file from MLB’s 1989 probe of Rose’s gambling led by special counsel John Dowd.

Rose visited the Hall when he was 26 and a fifth-year star for Cincinnati. It was July 24, 1967, and the Reds toured the museum before losing to the Baltimore Orioles 3-0 in the then-annual Hall of Fame exhibition game, in which Rose went 0-for-3.

“This is really great,” Rose said as he looked around the Hall, per the Cincinnati Enquirer. “This is what baseball is all about.”

Rose marveled at the multitude of mementos from Babe Ruth, a member of Cooperstown’s inaugural 1936 class, and at the vast space specifically for the “Bambino” and his larger-than-life exploits on the diamond and beyond.

Dayton (Ohio) Daily News columnist Si Burick, who eventually would be selected to the Hall’s writers wing, recounted a moment from the visit in his column the next day:

When a fellow suggested to an awestruck Rose that he, too, might some day grace the Hall of Fame, if he continued at his present pace, the irrepressible Cincinnatian had a typical answer. Peter pointed to a cubicle filled with Ruth gadgets, and suggested, “There’s my chance to get in — with my bowling ball.”

Ruth’s bowling ball was on display and Rose was a winner four months earlier during spring training at a “Base-Bowl” event in a Tampa bowling alley that paired MLB and Professional Bowlers Association stars. Rose and Dick Weber edged Lou Brock of the St. Louis Cardinals and Wayne Zahn. Of the four, only Rose isn’t enshrined in either the baseball or PBA Hall of Fame.

“I got all the records, so you can throw me into the sea, but the records are still going to come to the top,” Rose said in a 2019 interview for ESPN’s “Backstory” program. “You can walk into the Hall of Fame, you see my name in things everywhere, which is fine. It’s good for me. It’s good for the Hall of Fame. The greatest thing for baseball is the history of baseball.”

With Rose now eligible for election, his Hall candidacy is to be considered by the Historical Overview Committee, which develops a ballot of eight names for the Classic Era Committee that is next scheduled to meet in December 2027. That era committee handles candidates whose greatest impact was prior to 1980, including Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues stars. Its 16 members, comprising Hall of Famers, executives and veteran media members, are charged with weighing the eight candidates’ résumés, integrity, sportsmanship and character — 12 votes are needed for election.

The long-running debates over Rose surely will continue well past 2027. Regardless of whether he’s added to the Plaques Gallery signifying membership in the Hall — there will be 351 plaques as of Sunday, including the day’s five new inductees — there’s no disputing that Rose will continue to have places in the building.

ESPN senior writer Don Van Natta Jr. contributed to this report.

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Orioles place closer Bautista (shoulder) on IL

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Orioles place closer Bautista (shoulder) on IL

CLEVELAND — Baltimore Orioles closer Felix Bautista, who is tied for sixth in the American League with 19 saves, was placed on the 15-day injured list Thursday with right shoulder discomfort.

Interim manager Tony Mansolino said the right-hander felt uncomfortable while stretching in the bullpen Wednesday during a 3-2 loss to the Cleveland Guardians. Bautista will undergo an MRI when the Orioles return home Friday.

“The (dugout) phone rang in the seventh inning last night and I thought, ‘That is not good,'” Mansolino said. “Then I heard it get slammed down and knew it wasn’t good.

“Félix had started his process of getting loose and that’s when it flared up.”

Bautista did not pitch in the first three games of the series in Cleveland, last seeing action on Sunday at Tampa Bay when he earned his 19th save in 20 opportunities. He missed the entire 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The 30-year-old Dominican has a 1-1 record and 2.60 ERA in 35 appearances, limiting opponents to a .134 batting average over 34 2/3 innings. Bautista has struck out 50 and walked 23.

“We just have to hope it’s not too serious,” Mansolino said.

The Orioles will use a closer-by-committee in the short term with righty setup men Seranthony Dominguez and Yennier Cano at the front of the line.

“We’re going to have to bump up their roles,” Mansolino said. “We’ll figure it out.”

Bautista will not enter free agency until 2028, but is eligible for arbitration following this season. The 6-foot-8, 285-pounder is in the final year of a two-year, $2 million contract.

With the Orioles out of wild-card contention, they are expected to be active sellers before the July 31 trade deadline.

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