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Inflation is forcing Americans to spend $709 more per month on everyday goods and services than they did just two years ago, according to the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“The high inflation of the past 2+ years has done lots of economic damage,” Mark Zandi tweeted on Friday following the release of the Consumer Price Index — a closely-watched measure of inflation that tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services.

The CPI rose moderately, to 3.2% in July versus a year earlier.

“Due to the high inflation, the typical household spent $202 more in a July than they did a year ago to buy the same goods and services. And they spent $709 more than they did 2 years ago,” Zandi added.

Zandi — who also co-founded Moody’s global economic analysis service, Economy.com — said he sees relief ahead, predicting that inflation is “set to moderate further” as the Federal Reserve approaches its 2% inflation goal.

“Vehicle prices will decline more, so too will electricity prices, and the growth in the cost of housing will slow further. The biggest worry is the jump in oil prices, which bears close watching,” he added in the thread posted to X, formerly known as Twitter.

To be sure, the high inflation of the past 2+ years has done lots of economic damage. Due to the high inflation, the typical household spent $202 more in a July than they did a year ago to buy the same goods and services. And they spent $709 more than they did 2 years ago.

Though gas prices hit an eight-month high late last month, energy unexpectedly rose a mere 0.1%, the latest CPI report showed.

However, over the past month, US West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures climbed nearly 10%, to $82.83 and $86.39, respectively.

Zandi concluded his analysis with: “The deeper I dig into last weeks inflation statistics, the more confident I am that inflation will be back to the Feds inflation target by this time next year. And this without more interest rate hikes, a recession, or even much of an increase in unemployment.”

Fed officials have said that they’re also no longer forecasting a recession, though the sentiment opposes that of ratings agency Fitch, which owngraded the US top-tier sovereign credit from AAA to AA+, citing the possibility that the economy will slip into a mild recession later this year.

Consumers, however, have continued to feel reprieve from the central bank’s aggressive tightening regime, with core CPI which excludes volatile food and energy prices only rising 0.2% from a month ago, matching the 0.2% increase in June.

“The trend lines look good,” Zandi said, noting that “the July CPI report was great,” especially when compared to June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9.1% to hit a four-decade high.

Rising housing costs were by far the largest contributor to Julys uptick in prices, accounting for 90% of the advance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, though Zandi didn’t seem too concerned.

When The Post reached out to Moody’s for comment, the financial services firm pointed to commentary from another economist at the company, Bernard Yaros, who said that “the US consumer price index was fully in line with our and consensus expectations in July.”

“Moodys Analytics believes that the Federal Reserve is done with interest-rate hikes for the current tightening cycle, and the July CPI helps cement our near-term view on monetary policy,” he added.

The CPI report fueled questions about whether the Fed will continue to hike interest rates later this year after the Fed decided on a 25-basis-point rate hike in July, taking them to a 22-year high.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the advance was a unanimous decision, raising the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. 

Economists were divided on the pending rate hikes following the release of the CPI report.

Greg Wilensky, head of US fixed income at Janus Henderson Investors, added: If economic conditions continue as expected, we believe we have seen the last hike for this cycle. This makes us more constructive on adding interest-rate risk, particularly at the front of curve.

Meanwhile, Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio Aleman believes stubbornly-high shelter costs are slated to put pressure on headline inflation going forward.

No doubt the Fed will also look at the Labor Departments hiring report for July as it considers whether its done enough to snuff out inflation.

Last month, US employers added 187,000 jobs, the lowest number since COVID peaked in 2020, though unemployment remained little changed month-over-month, at 3.5%.

The labor market has showed surprising resiliency over the last couple of months, adding 209,000 jobs in June and a robust 339,000 jobs in May.

The US is currently enjoying a 30-month streak of monthly job gains.

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Taliban internet blackout has created an extreme scenario in Afghanistan with far-reaching consequences

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Taliban internet blackout has created an extreme scenario in Afghanistan with far-reaching consequences

At Kabul International Airport, there are dozens of confused looking families.

Many are holding flowers, waiting and hoping their loved ones will touch down.

Others came here hoping to take-off but are now sitting bewildered in the hot sun.

After the Taliban imposed a nationwide shutdown of the internet, no one knows if any flights are still operating and no one can use their phones to find out.

The Taliban caught many in the country off-guard with their shutdown. File pic: West Asia News Agency via Reuters
Image:
The Taliban caught many in the country off-guard with their shutdown. File pic: West Asia News Agency via Reuters

“I am waiting for my brother from Australia,” one man tells me, “but I don’t know if he’s coming”.

Beyond the gates, the runway is full of grounded planes.

After hours of waiting on Tuesday, no international flights took off or arrived at Kabul Airport, despite some airlines scheduling departures.

The Taliban caught many in the country off-guard with their shutdown – reportedly even some of their own ministers.

Initially, there appeared to be no official indication of how long the shutdown might last or an explanation for why it was imposed.

A man tries to use Google on his smartphone in the Afghan capital. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A man tries to use Google on his smartphone in the Afghan capital. Pic: Reuters

On Wednesday, the Taliban government rejected reports of a nationwide internet ban, saying old fibre optic cables are worn out and are being replaced.

But, at the airport, people worry it could be indefinite. Others speculate about rumours it’s to do with security protocols and the movement of officials in the country.

No one knows, and the TV and radio stations they get their news from have not been providing the latest information.

Men try to connect their smart TV to the internet. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Men try to connect their smart TV to the internet. Pic: Reuters

The banks are open but no one can get out money. An employee at the bank in our hotel in Kabul told us they haven’t been able to open their operating systems since Tuesday morning and that Western Union isn’t accessible either.

That’s hugely significant in a country where many are reliant on money sent back by relatives abroad and banks are already struggling with sanctions.

No one can call the police, no one can call an ambulance, and hospitals and medical services are wrestling with how to adjust too.

It follows more than a week of temporary connectivity issues in some parts of the country, with the northern region of Balkh among the first to be affected by a ban on fibre optic internet.

Read more: Internet ban ‘extinguishing the only light that still reaches us’

Taliban fighters ride on a pickup truck during celebrations marking the fourth anniversary of the US withdrawal. Pic: AP
Image:
Taliban fighters ride on a pickup truck during celebrations marking the fourth anniversary of the US withdrawal. Pic: AP

In the last 10 days, we have been travelling across Afghanistan. People in Nangarhar, Kunar, Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat all expressed concern about possible impending blackouts, and we personally experienced a slowdown in connectivity in these places. But nothing as widespread or sustained as this shutdown which is nationwide.

Two weeks ago, the Taliban’s provincial government spokesman Haji Attaullah Zaid said leader Hibatullah Akhundzada had imposed a “complete ban” on cable internet access in Balkh.

“This measure was taken to prevent immorality, and an alternative will be built within the country for necessities,” Mr Zaid said.

It was said to be connected to concerns around pornography – but this was never officially stated by the Taliban.

We have tried to reach the government for comment via satellite phone but with no success.

No one knows how long the shutdown will last. Pic: Reuters
Image:
No one knows how long the shutdown will last. Pic: Reuters

The blackout has disrupted phone services. In countries with limited telecom infrastructure, phone networks are often routed through fibre-optic systems which have now been disabled.

The lack of connectivity has raised immediate concern in the aid community. Amnesty International called it “reckless” and said the shutdown would have “far-reaching consequences for the delivery of aid, access to healthcare and girls’ education”.

After the Taliban banned school for girls over the age of 12, many in the country have been secretly studying online.

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Everyone we’ve spoken to seems dumbfounded.

During the previous temporary blackouts, the Taliban did warn more was to come. But no one appears to have anticipated this – not ordinary citizens, not foreign officials here in Kabul, not big business, not the airlines or the hospitals.

It is an indication of how quickly this country can turn and the power the Taliban has to disrupt and reshape its future.

Internationally, many are raising concerns that this is an attempt by the Taliban at widespread censorship and further restriction of girls’ education.

Whatever the intention of their move, it has created an extreme scenario: no one in this country can currently contact anyone – for an emergency, for a family member, or for guidance – creating a major information vacuum.

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At least 69 dead as earthquake strikes Philippines, as hospital ‘overwhelmed’

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At least 69 dead as earthquake strikes Philippines, as hospital 'overwhelmed'

At least 69 people have been killed in a powerful 6.9-magnitude earthquake that rocked the central Philippines.

The centre of the quake, which knocked out power lines and sent people running out into the streets, was about 12 miles northeast of Bogo, a coastal city of about 90,000 people on the island of Cebu.

Civil defence official Raffy Alejandro told reporters that the city’s hospital has been “overwhelmed,” and that the number of dead remains “fluid”.

Earlier, authorities said at least 14 residents in Bogo had died. Another official said more than 150 people were injured.

The tremor was set off by movement in a local fault at a depth of three miles at around 10pm (3pm in the UK) on Tuesday.

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

Gemma Villamor, head of the local disaster office, said earlier that in the town of Medellin, near Bogo, at least 12 residents died when the ceilings and walls of their homes collapsed, with some asleep at the time.

And in nearby San Remigio, vice mayor Alfie Reynes added that five people – including three coastguard members, a firefighter, and a child – were killed by collapsing walls while fleeing a basketball game.

He later told DZMM Radio: “It is raining heavily and there is no electricity so we really need help, especially in the northern part because there’s a scarcity of water after supply lines were damaged by the earthquake.”

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Medical teams in Cebu city, central Philippines, help the injured.  Pic: AP
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Medical teams in Cebu city, central Philippines, help the injured. Pic: AP

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

Businesses and landmark buildings have suffered damage, including an old Catholic church in the town of Daanbantayan, and roads have shown deep cracks.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology briefly issued a tsunami warning for Cebu and nearby provinces, but later lifted it after no unusual waves were detected.

The quake struck while Cebu and surrounding areas were still recovering from a severe storm that hit the central region days earlier, killing at least 27 people mainly from drownings and fallen trees, cutting power across cities, and forcing evacuations.

The Philippines, located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is highly prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

It also faces around 20 typhoons and storms annually, making it one of the world’s most disaster-prone nations.

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Princess Anne makes surprise Ukraine visit – and leaves a personal tribute

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Princess Anne makes surprise Ukraine visit - and leaves a personal tribute

Princess Anne has placed a toy bear as a poignant tribute at a children’s memorial in Ukraine, during an unexpected visit to the war-ravaged country where she also met Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The King’s sister travelled to the capital Kyiv on Tuesday, at the request of the Foreign Office, in a show of solidarity with children and families facing the horrors of the Russian invasion.

The Princess Royal met Mr Zelenskyy to discuss the UK’s support for Ukraine and its ongoing resistance.

The Princess Royal and First Lady Olena Zelenska laid soft toys during a visit to a memorial for children killed in the war. Pic: PA
Image:
The Princess Royal and First Lady Olena Zelenska laid soft toys during a visit to a memorial for children killed in the war. Pic: PA

Anne’s secret visit, which was not publicised beforehand for security reasons, came just two days after a Russian aerial bombardment killed at least four people in Kyiv, including a 12-year-old girl, and injured at least 70 others.

The attack, which lasted more than 12 hours, was one of the heaviest in recent months.

The purpose of her trip was to highlight the traumatic experiences of children living on the frontline, Buckingham Palace said.

Joining First Lady Olena Zelenska at the children’s memorial, Anne left the teddy in tribute to youngsters killed in the conflict, saying her daughter Zara Tindall had the same bear.

As the 75-year-old princess stepped back after placing the traditional-looking teddy at the base of the memorial alongside scores of other cuddly toys, she told Mrs Zelenska: “That was one that my daughter had.”

Mrs Zelenska also left a bear in tribute.

Anne is the latest British royal to make a trip to Kyiv. Pic: PA
Image:
Anne is the latest British royal to make a trip to Kyiv. Pic: PA

The site commemorates more than 650 children who have died since the start of the conflict in 2022.

In Kyiv, she also met female police and armed forces representatives and heard about their key role protecting women and children.

Visiting the Child Rights Protection Centre, she spoke to families and children who have been returned and reintegrated, and met some of those working to return more Ukrainian children.

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Princess Anne spoke to young people who lived under occupation. Pic: PA
Image:
Princess Anne spoke to young people who lived under occupation. Pic: PA

The Princess Royal met Ukrainian war veterans relaxing in a salt therapy room at a rehabilitation centre. Pic: PA
Image:
The Princess Royal met Ukrainian war veterans relaxing in a salt therapy room at a rehabilitation centre. Pic: PA

More than 19,500 Ukrainian children have been forcibly transferred or deported by the Russian authorities to Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine.

Princess Anne is the second working royal to visit Ukraine.

In April last year, the Duchess of Edinburgh was the first to go and bring a letter of support from the King.

Anne’s trip also follows that of her nephew Prince Harry, who made a surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital just over two weeks ago with a team from his Invictus Games Foundation.

Anne also visited a rehabilitation centre, where she met Ukrainian veterans returning from the frontline.

The King has met Mr Zelenskyy a number of times and marked the country’s independence day in August by sending a message of solidarity.

During Donald Trump’s recent state visit to the UK, Charles also took the opportunity to stress the importance of supporting Ukraine.

He told the US president in his banquet speech: “Today, as tyranny once again threatens Europe, we and our allies stand together in support of Ukraine, to deter aggression and secure peace.”

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