Caleb Williams, Brock Bowers, Marvin Harrison Jr. lead college football’s top 100 players for 2023
Everyone wants to be known as the best at something. Anything. Being the best grill master at your house. Being the best among your friends at singing Taylor Swift karaoke at 2 a.m. Being the best player in all of college football. And when it comes to us who cover college football for a living, we want to be the best at determining who those best players are!
It was with that goal in mind that we here in the college sports corner of ESPN.com once again spent a large chunk of our summer discussing, debating, voting and, in this age of ever-evolving AI, even leaning on an algorithm to help us determine the best of the college football best. And as far as you know, none of us did that while standing over the grill singing Taylor Swift karaoke at 2 a.m.
So, as the season bears down on us like Washington’s Bralen Trice chasing Caleb Williams, you decide whether we are the best or the worst at separating the truly best from the merely great as you read our 2023 ESPN Preseason Top 100 College Football Player Rankings.
— Ryan McGee
Methodology: Voters were presented with a series of one-on-one votes. For example, “Who should be ranked higher for the 2023 season: Blake Corum or Caleb Williams?” Think of it as an Oklahoma drill of statistical reasoning. More than 10,000 votes later, these were the results.
Jump to: 1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | 81-90 | 91-100
QB, USC, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 52 TDs (42 pass, 10 rush), 4,537 yards
2022 end-of-season ranking: 1
In his first year at USC and second year in college, Williams took the sport by storm. He threw for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy. He draws Patrick Mahomes comparisons and has more or less secured the No. 1 overall draft pick for next season barring some unforeseen circumstances. What can he do for an encore?
TE, Georgia, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 790 rec yards, 9 total TDs
2022 ranking: 14
Bowers has been a fixture at tight end since the day he arrived on Georgia’s campus. He catches everything thrown his way, blocks with the same efficiency and runs like a running back both after the catch and when he’s taking a handoff. He has scored 24 touchdowns in his first two seasons (20 receiving and four rushing).
WR, Ohio State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,263 yards, 14 TDs
2022 ranking: 9
Harrison was an unanimous All-American in 2022 — Ohio State’s first — and was named the Big Ten’s Wide Receiver of the Year. He caught 77 passes for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns. He went over the 100-yard receiving mark in seven games last season.
LB, LSU, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 8.5 sacks, 3 FF, 1 INT
2022 ranking: 54
Perkins — who can play linebacker or edge rusher — is an impact defender wherever he lines up. He was learning the ropes in the SEC a year ago as a true freshman but still led LSU in tackles for loss (13), sacks (7.5 sacks), quarterback hurries (14) and forced fumbles (three).
QB, North Carolina, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 38 TDs, 4,321 passing yards
2022 ranking: 18
A year ago, Maye entered fall camp unsure whether he would land UNC’s starting job. This year, he opens the season as one of the top contenders for the Heisman Trophy. In between, he threw for 4,321 yards, ran for 698 more, accounted for 45 touchdowns and led North Carolina to an ACC Coastal Division title.
QB, Washington, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 31 TDs, 4,641 yards
2022 ranking: 17
After transferring to Washington from Indiana to be reunited with coach Kalen DeBoer, the former Hoosiers offensive coordinator, Penix was a revelation in Seattle. He led FBS in passing yards per game (357), tossed 21 touchdown passes and turned down the opportunity to enter the NFL draft to return to UW.
RB, Michigan, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 18 TDs, 1,463 rush yards
2022 ranking: 10
Corum, a driving force for Michigan’s drive to a second straight Big Ten title and CFP berth, was a Doak Walker finalist, unanimous All-American and Big Ten Running Back of the Year in 2022 (1,463 rushing yards and 18 TDs). He had eight straight 100-yard rushing games from Sept. 24 through Nov. 19 last season.
QB, Florida State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 32 total TDs (24 pass, 7 rush, 1 rec)
2022 ranking: 29
Three years ago, Travis approached Florida State’s new coaching staff with an offer to swap positions to tailback or receiver. Mike Norvell & Co. declined. Their decision was wise. Last year, Travis blossomed into one of the most prolific QBs in the nation, accounting for more than 3,600 yards of offense, 32 touchdowns and a Total QBR of 85.8, seventh best nationally.
DL, Florida State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 9 sacks, 22 solo tackles
Preseason ranking: 56
In his first season playing at the FBS level, Verse — an Albany transfer — proved to be among the top pass-rushers in the country. Despite battling injuries most of the year, Verse finished with 9 sacks, 17 tackles for loss and 31 QB pressures. His pressure rate of 17.1% ranked fourth among FBS D-linemen.
DE/Edge, Georgia, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 31 QB pressures, 6.5 TFLs
2022 rankings: NR
Williams was one of the top freshman defenders in college football last season. He tied Jalen Carter with a team-leading 31 quarterback hurries and played especially well in the College Football Playoff for the two-time defending national champion Bulldogs. His six sacks tied for the national lead among true freshmen.
OL, Notre Dame, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1 sack allowed, 3 pressures allowed
2022 ranking: 19
He’s the latest in Notre Dame’s run of premier offensive linemen and projects as an NFL first-round draft pick in 2024 who could possibly go in the top 10. The 6-foot-8, 322-pound Alt earned first-team AP All-America honors in 2022 and enters his third season with 21 consecutive starts. Alt will protect the blind side of new quarterback Sam Hartman.
DB, Alabama, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 15 PBUs, first-team All-SEC honors
2022 ranking: 64
McKinstry has been a starter in Alabama’s secondary since the second game of his college career. He provides the kind of skill and experience that Nick Saban has had at cornerback on some of his more dominant defenses. McKinstry doubles as one of college football’s most dangerous punt returners.
WR, Ohio State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,151 yards, 10 TDs
2022 ranking: 32
Egbuka was a Paul Hornung finalist last season after hauling in 74 receptions for 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns. A second-team All-Big Ten pick, he finished third in the conference in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Along with Harrison, Egbuka will cause opposing defenses fits as the Buckeyes’ offense figures to keep humming along.
QB, Oregon, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 285.1 QBR, 3,593 yards, 29 TD passes
2022 ranking: 46
Nix’s change of scenery paid off as he moved from Auburn to Eugene and seemed to fit in the Ducks’ offense well. His 2022 campaign resulted in 3,593 yards, 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. While there was plenty of talk about him using last year as a launching pad to the NFL, Nix decided to run it back for one more year.
QB, LSU, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,798 total yards, 28 total TDs
2022 ranking: 97
Daniels blossomed into one of the nation’s best dual threats at quarterback last season. The 6-4, 210-pound senior was the only FBS player to pass for more than 2,900 yards (2,913) and rush for more than 800 yards (885) in leading the Tigers to the SEC championship game. His 11 rushing touchdowns were a career high after he played his first three seasons at Arizona State.
OL, Penn State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: didn’t allow 1 sack in 8 games started
2022 ranking: 98
Fashanu passed up potentially being a first-round NFL draft selection to return for another season. He was a big part of an offensive line that allowed Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to enjoy such early success last season. The Nittany Lions averaged 181.1 yards on the ground — fourth in the Big Ten.
RB, Michigan, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 991 rushing yards and 7 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Edwards had 991 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in 2022. He established a career-high 216 rushing yards in Michigan’s 45-23 victory at Ohio State last year. He rushed for over 100 yards five times last season.
RB, Arkansas, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,443 yards, 10 TDs
2022 ranking: 84
Sanders, aka Rocket, was the main cog last season in an Arkansas running game that finished seventh nationally (236.5 yards per game). Not only does Sanders carve up defenses as a runner, he’s also an excellent receiver. He’s the only returning FBS player who rushed for more than 1,400 yards (1,443) and had more than 250 receiving yards (271).
OL, Michigan, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 0.5% pressure pct allowed; 4th in Big Ten
2022 rankings: NR
A member of Michigan’s offensive line that won a second straight Joe Moore Award (best offensive line in the country), Zinter was a consensus first-team All-Big Ten selection in 2022. The Wolverines rushed for 238.9 yards per game, fifth in the FBS.
WR, Washington, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 75 catches, 1,145 yards, 7 TDs
2022 rankings: NR
Odunze led the Pac-12 with 1,145 receiving yards and ranked second in receptions per game on his way to 75 on the season. His receiving total ranks No. 5 in school history, and he returns as part of one of the deepest receiving corps in the country.
LB, Clemson, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 2 INTs, 6.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL, 5 PBU, 4 QBH
2022 ranking: NR
Trotter is all business, head coach Dabo Swinney said, and business was good in 2022. He led the Tigers with 89 tackles (50 solo) to go with 6.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL, 5 PBUs and 4 QB hurries. Pro Football Focus graded Trotter as the ACC’s top-graded linebacker and the second best among all returning Power 5 LBs.
RB, Ole Miss, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 16 TDs, 1,567 yards
2022 ranking: 50
The only freshman running back to rush for more yards in the SEC than Judkins a year ago was Herschel Walker in 1980. Judkins is coming off a 1,567-yard season and had eight 100-yard games to go along with 16 rushing touchdowns. He’s a breakaway threat and also a tough, physical runner between the tackles.
QB, Utah, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 83.1 QBR, 3,034 yards, 26 TDs
2022 ranking: 53
Rising’s résumé is not as stellar from a statistical standpoint as those of some of his Pac-12 peers, but his achievements rule them all. After leading the Utes to a Pac-12 title in 2021, he made another leap last year, jumping over 3,000 passing yards and adding 26 touchdowns on his way to a second straight Pac-12 championship.
LB, Georgia, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: Led Georgia with 9 TFLs, 2nd with 4 sacks
2022 ranking: 76
When you’re a Butkus Award finalist during your first full season as a starter, you’re something special. Such was the case with Dumas-Johnson in his sophomore year, tallying 70 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and 26 quarterback hurries.
QB, Notre Dame, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 38 TDs, 3,701 yards
2022 ranking: 59
Arguably the biggest prize of the quarterback portal, Hartman set the ACC’s career touchdown passes record (110) and brings 12,967 career passing yards and 21 games of 300 yards or more from Wake Forest. He thrived in an RPO-based offense and must adjust to a more traditional system at Notre Dame, which will lean on his experience, production and accuracy.
RB, Clemson, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,182 yards, 15 TDs
2022 ranking: 40
How big was Shipley’s impact last season? He made the 2022 All-ACC team three times — as a tailback, all-purpose player and return man. Shipley ran for 1,182 yards, caught 38 balls for 242 more yards and had 324 yards in kickoff returns, scoring 15 times total. With new OC Garrett Riley calling plays in 2023, he could be in for even bigger things.
G, Kansas State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: Didn’t allow a sack
2022 ranking: NR
Beebe is one of the most talented offensive linemen in the nation. After getting first-team All-Big 12 honors at left tackle in 2021, he moved inside to left guard and was named the Big 12 Offensive Lineman of the Year by the league’s coaches, and he earned a second consecutive All-Big 12 first-team selection.
OLB, Alabama, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 4 sacks, 37 total tackles
2022 ranking: NR
Now that Will Anderson Jr. is off to the NFL, Turner steps in as the Crimson Tide’s top pass-rusher. He’s a menace to opposing offensive tackles with his speed and will be looking to recapture some of the same numbers he put up as a freshman, when he recorded 10 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks.
RB, Penn State, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 1,061 yards, 12 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Singleton led the Penn State offense with 1,061 yards and 12 touchdowns. He ran for at least 100 yards in four games, paced by a 179-yard effort in a convincing 46-10 win over Ohio, and had five multi-touchdown games.
QB, Arkansas, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 2,648 yards, 24 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Injuries curtailed an otherwise solid junior season in which Jefferson passed for 2,648 yards and 24 touchdowns, and rushed for 640 yards and nine touchdowns. At 6-3 and 247 pounds, Jefferson can be one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country when healthy.
RB, Wisconsin, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,242 yards, 11 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Allen ran for 1,242 yards and 11 touchdowns last season as he came close to matching his numbers from his breakout freshman season in 2021. Those numbers placed him fourth in yards and fifth in touchdowns, respectively, in the conference. He had seven 100-yard rushing games in 2022, paced by 165 yards in a 52-21 loss at Ohio State on Sept. 24. He led the Badgers in rushing 10 times.
QB, UTSA, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 32 TDs, 4,059 yards
2022 ranking: 57
The left-hander has been the most significant player in UTSA’s rise to national prominence. Harris enters his seventh year in the program and holds more than 30 team records, including career passing yards (9,356), passing touchdowns (74) and total offense (11,178 yards). He’s 31-11 as UTSA’s starter and won Conference USA MVP honors in 2022.
RB, Ohio State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: In 8 games, ran for 571 yards and 6 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Henderson battled injuries after a stellar freshman season. He played in just eight games last year but rushed for over 100 yards in victories over Wisconsin (121 yards) and Michigan State (118 yards). He ran for 571 yards and six touchdowns this past fall after churning out 1,248 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2021.
LB, Clemson, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 5.5 sacks, 10.5 TFL, 8 PBU, 6 QBH, 2 FF
2022 ranking: NR
Dabo Swinney calls Carter one of the most dynamic players he’s coached — a guy who’s dominant at linebacker but could easily play safety, corner, edge rusher or even tailback, Swinney said. The numbers back up the claim. Carter finished 2022 with 73 tackles (10 for a loss), 5.5 sacks, 2 picks, 2 forced fumbles, 7 pass breakups and 25 QB pressures. No other FBS player has done all that in the same season in the past five years.
DL, Illinois, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 59 tackles (28 solo), 14 TFLs, 5.5 sacks
2022 ranking: NR
Newton’s 59 tackles (28 solo) placed him tied for third with safety Sydney Brown on Illinois’ defense last year. Newton’s 14 tackles for loss and 5½ sacks led the team, which had the country’s top scoring defense (12.3 PPG). He was an All-Big Ten first-team pick.
QB, Mississippi State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,974 yards, 35 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The most accomplished passer in the SEC, Rogers is already the only quarterback in SEC history with over 1,000 career completions. With 32 consecutive starts, he owns school career records for passing yards (10,689) and passing touchdowns (82).
WR, LSU, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 72 catches, 1,017 yards, 3 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The Tigers needed an alpha in the receiver room, and Nabers stepped into that role during the postseason with a combined 291 yards and two touchdowns against Georgia in the SEC championship game and Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Quarterback Jayden Daniels said of Nabers, “If it’s man coverage and I give him an opportunity to make a play, he’ll probably come down with the football.”
WR, Arizona, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 85 catches, 1,034 yards, 7 TDs
Preseason ranking: 80
The Arizona native has been the Wildcats’ model of consistency the past few seasons. In spite of whichever quarterback has been throwing to him, Cowing now has two seasons of over 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He’s back this year for his senior season right as Arizona looks more competent than ever under Jedd Fisch and returning quarterback Jayden de Laura.
QB, Michigan, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 2,719 passing yards, 22 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
McCarthy was a Davey O’Brien semifinalist in 2022 with 2,719 passing yards and 22 passing TDs, helping pilot Michigan to a second straight College Football Playoff appearance. He added 306 rushing yards and five scores on the ground. He threw for a career-high 343 yards in the Wolverines’ loss to TCU in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl.
DB, Georgia, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 2 INTs, 7 PBUs
2022 ranking: 39
Starks is one half of a talented safety combo at Georgia along with Javon Bullard. Last season as a freshman, Starks led all Georgia defenders with 847 snaps played and finished third on the team with 68 total tackles while starting in all 15 games. His speed and versatility make him a perfect fit in Kirby Smart’s system.
LB, Georgia, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 8 TFLs, 76 tackles
2022 ranking: NR
The tandem of Mondon and Jamon Dumas-Johnson gives the Bulldogs arguably the best inside linebacker corps in the country. Despite missing two games, Mondon led the team with 76 total stops last season, not to mention his 23 quarterback hurries.
C, Georgia, junior
Notable 2022 stats: Led all SEC centers with 944 snaps played
2022 ranking: NR
By all accounts, the 6-4, 310-pound senior should be in the NFL right now. He allowed only one sack the past two seasons, so he has already proven himself. But he put the draft on hold to come back for another season, which is good news for the Bulldogs and their quest for a three-peat.
OL, Boston College, senior
Notable 2021 stats: 0 sacks allowed in 314 pass rush snaps
2022 ranking: NR
A projected first-round pick, Mahogany missed all of last season with a knee injury but says he is much better than at any other point in his career. That is good news for a Boston College offensive line that struggled without him a year ago. With a healthy Mahogany back, expect him to continue to improve on his NFL draft stock and improve the overall BC line, too.
QB, Kansas, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 2,014 yards, 18 TDs in 9 games
2022 ranking: NR
In nine games in 2022, Daniels completed 66.1% of his passes for 2,014 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. He also had 425 yards rushing and seven touchdowns. After being a Heisman candidate the first five weeks of the season, he suffered an injury against TCU that halted those aspirations. But expect him to be one of the best in the nation again in 2023.
CB, Penn State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 3 INTs, 30 tackles (23 solo), 18 PBUs
2022 ranking: NR
King’s three interceptions put him second on the team last year, behind safety Ji’Ayir Brown (four). He started nine games in 2022, recording 30 tackles (23 solo) and 18 PBUs. King’s 30 tackles were tied for eighth on the team. The Nittany Lions’ pass defense (212.8 YPG) ranked ninth in the Big Ten last season.
CB, Iowa, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 5 INTs,75 tackles (19 solo)
2022 ranking: NR
DeJean established a new program single-season record by taking three interceptions to the house. All told, he had a team-leading five interceptions on the year to go along with 75 tackles (19 solo), third on the Hawkeyes’ defense. He was the 2022 TransPerfect Music City Bowl MVP as Iowa posted a 21-0 shutout.
LB, Ohio State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 12 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT
2022 ranking: 71
Eichenberg led the Buckeyes’ defense with 120 tackles and 12 tackles for loss. His 77 solo tackles paced the Big Ten and ranked fifth nationally. He was a first-team All-Big Ten selection while also being named a Lott IMPACT finalist and Butkus Award semifinalist.
WR, Washington, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 79 catches, 1,098 yards, 9 receiving TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Like his fellow Huskies’ wideout Rome Odunze, McMillan was one of the great beneficiaries of the arrival of head coach Kalen DeBoer and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. As Washington’s offense turned into a juggernaut, McMillan had a breakout year that featured a 1,089-yard, nine-touchdown season for the rising senior.
LB, UCLA, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 10.5 sacks, 12.5 TFLs, 3 FF
2022 ranking: 86
After sitting out two seasons, Latu transferred to UCLA from Washington and made an immediate impact. He led the Bruins with 12.5 tackles for loss, including 10.5 sacks. He was named Pac-12 Player of the Week after a three-sack performance against Colorado and was a first-team All-Pac-12 selection.
RB, Ohio State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 825 rushing yards, 14 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
In 2022, Williams made the All-Big Ten third team after rushing for 825 yards and 14 touchdowns, and he led the Buckeyes in both of those categories. He ran for a career-high 189 yards and five touchdowns in Ohio State’s 49-10 victory over Rutgers, and he eclipsed the 100-yard mark four times last season.
LB, Oklahoma, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 125 tackles,10.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 2 INTs
2022 ranking:
A player who will be integral on Brent Venables’ second-year defense, Stutsman led the Big 12 last season with 125 total tackles with an average of 9.6 tackles per game. Stutsman also totaled 10.5 tackles for loss, which was good for second on the team, as well as three sacks and two interceptions.
WR, USC, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 66 catches, 1,1105 yards, 6 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
A first-team All-Pac-12 selection in 2022, Singer caught 66 passes for 1,105 yards and six touchdowns and was one of two 1,000-yard receivers for the Wildcats, along with Jacob Cowing.
QB, Coastal Carolina, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 2,700 yards, 24 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Since 2020, McCall ranks third among FBS quarterbacks in wins (28), sixth in passing touchdowns (77) and seventh in total QBR (82.9). He has thrown only eight interceptions on 788 pass attempts during the span. The three-time Sun Belt Player of the Year must adjust to a new offense under coach Tim Beck, but his efficiency stands out.
OL, Alabama, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1.2% pressure pct allowed, 2nd among SEC RTs
2022 ranking: NR
According to Pro Football Focus, Latham didn’t allow a single sack while pass-blocking last season. If he can pick up the pace as a run blocker — and there’s no reason to think he can’t with 29 knockdown blocks last season — he could play his way into being a top NFL draft pick in 2024.
CB, Michigan, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 3 INT, 3 PD, 25 solo tackles
2022 ranking: NR
Johnson finished second on the Wolverines with three interceptions. He had a career-high eight tackles in Michigan’s decisive 45-23 victory at Ohio State while picking off two passes in a 43-22 victory over Purdue as the program claimed a second straight Big Ten title. Johnson was part of a secondary that ended the year sixth in the Big Ten in passing defense (191.8 YPG).
LB, Michigan, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 101 tackles (42 solo)
2022 ranking: NR
Colson recorded 101 tackles (42 solo) to lead a Wolverines’ defense that finished third in the country in rushing defense (85.2 YPG) and fifth in the FBS in scoring defense (13.4 PPG). He had double-digit tackles in four games last year, paced by 15 in a 43-22 victory over Purdue in the Big Ten championship.
RB, Marshall, sophomore
Notable 2021 stats: 1,401 yards, 23 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
He tied for the FBS rushing touchdowns lead with 23 in 2021, to go along with 1,401 yards on 250 carries. A knee injury cost Ali the first 10 games last season, although he returned down the stretch and won Myrtle Beach Bowl MVP honors after a 92-yard effort. He projects as the centerpiece for Marshall’s offense under coach Charles Huff.
S, Miami, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 6 INT, 6 PBU, 59 tackles, 1 FF
2022 ranking: NR
Kinchens had a breakout season in 2022, winning All-ACC honors after starting all 12 games. He finished with a team-high six interceptions, and he also led the Hurricanes with 59 total tackles. He has a sense for where the ball will be at all times, and his presence in the secondary is one that forces opposing offenses to try and scheme around him.
WR, Texas, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 60 catches for 760 yards, 9 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Worthy comes into the 2023 season with 21 career touchdown receptions, good for third all-time in Texas Football history. In 13 games last season, he had 60 receptions for 760 yards and nine touchdowns. He was named to the Biletnikoff Award watch list, and will certainly compete for the award if Quinn Ewers and Texas take the leap many expect.
QB, Oklahoma, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,168 yards, 25 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The Big 12’s Offensive Newcomer of the Year started 12 games in 2022, completing 62.7% of his passes for 3,168 yards with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He also had six rushing touchdowns, a career high. Per Oklahoma, his 95 touchdown passes are the second most in the country over the last four years despite missing 11 games due to injury.
WR, Florida State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 43 catches, 897 yards, 5 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
There is no question the 6-7 Wilson is an automatic matchup advantage for the Seminoles — he just needed more game reps and experience to put everything together. What he showed last season — 43 receptions for 897 yards and five touchdowns — is only a start. If his 202-yard performance against Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl is any indication, bigger things are in store for 2023.
DL, Washington, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 10 sacks, 39 tackles
2022 ranking: NR
Trice’s 10 sacks this past season were good enough to put him in the top 10 players in the country in the statistic. His season, which also included 39 tackles, looked to be good enough to vault him to the NFL, but Trice chose to come back to Seattle for another season. His prediction for his performance this upcoming season? Twenty sacks.
S, USC, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 5 INTs, 6 PBUs
2022 ranking: NR
Bullock earned some All-American recognition in 2022 during his breakout sophomore season with the Trojans, after which he was named second-team All-Pac-12. His five interceptions led the team and ranked No. 11 in the country.
LB, North Carolina, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 12 TFLs, 6 PBUs, 4 QBHs, 3 FF, 2 INTs
2022 ranking: NR
The North Carolina defense may have struggled last season, but Gray was the one consistent force the unit had across the board. In fact, he was so good and reliable, he rarely came off the field for the Tar Heels. Gray had 145 tackles — tops among all Power 5 players — a sack, 12 tackles for loss, two interceptions and three forced fumbles a year ago en route to All-ACC honors. He is back on the preseason All-ACC list with more to come.
CB, Florida State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 13 PBUs, 45.2% completions, 0 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Cypress was one of the most heralded transfers this past season, leaving Virginia for Florida State and immediately providing a boost to the Seminoles secondary. A preseason All-ACC choice, he led the country with an average of 1.6 pass breakups per game last year with the Cavaliers — ranking No. 1 in the ACC and ninth nationally with 14 total pass breakups.
DT, Clemson, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 5.5 sacks, 9.5 TFLs, 9 QBHs
2022 ranking: NR
When Davis is healthy, he is the best interior defensive lineman in the ACC. His decision to return to Clemson for one more year gives the Tigers defensive front a huge advantage. The three-time All-ACC selection had 9.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks and 15 quarterback pressures a year ago, but he has not played a complete season since 2019. That has still not stopped him from dominating.
WR, Texas A&M, senior
Notable 2021 stats: 509 yards, 6 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Arguably the biggest win of the offseason for the Aggies was getting Smith to return for his senior season. He’s as dynamic a playmaker as anyone in the SEC, whether he’s lining up at receiver, running back or returning kicks and punts. In four seasons, he’s amassed 2,804 yards from scrimmage.
RB, Penn State, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 867 yards, 10 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Allen rushed for 867 yards and 10 touchdowns as a freshman last fall, playing in all 13 games and forming a productive 1-2 punch with Nicholas Singleton. Allen ran for a career-high 117 yards in a 55-10 victory at Rutgers on Nov. 19. His three touchdowns against Indiana helped lead the way to a 45-14 road victory on Nov. 5.
RB, Florida State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 990 rush yards, 9 rush TD, 114 rec. yards
2022 ranking: NR
Since Benson arrived at Florida State from Oregon, he has been nothing but productive — helping lead the Seminoles to a top 15 rushing offense a year ago. Benson started six games in 2022 and ran for 990 yards and nine touchdowns, while also catching 13 passes for 144 yards. Much more is expected this season, as Benson is a preseason All-ACC choice.
All purpose, Colorado, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 19 tackles, 8 PBUs, 2 INTs
2022 ranking: NR
The two-way threat came with coach Deion Sanders to Colorado from Jackson State and is expected to play much more on offense than he did as a freshman last year. He made a splash during recruiting when he signed with Jackson State as a five-star cornerback and will now test his game at a higher level.
OG, Alabama, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 150 snaps at both guard spots
2022 ranking: NR
With new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees onboard, Alabama will lean even more on its offensive line in 2023, and Booker is a big reason why. He has a chance to develop into one of the most dominant interior offensive linemen in the country with his blend of size, power and agility. The 6-5, 335-pound Booker will line up at right guard beside his old IMG Academy teammate JC Latham at right tackle, a combo Latham said would be “dangerous.”
S, TCU, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 12 PBUs, 3 INTs
2022 ranking: NR
The Louisiana-Monroe transfer was named first-team All-Big 12 alongside Thorpe Award winner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson. He had 35 tackles on the season with 15 pass breakups and added three interceptions, including one he returned 57 yards for a touchdown against Iowa State. He enters his final season with 27 career pass breakups.
DL, Penn State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 26 tackles (19 solo), 10 TFLs, 5.5 sacks
2022 ranking: NR
Robinson earned the team’s defensive player of the week award three times. He recorded 26 tackles (19 solo) with 10 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. His 5½ sacks were tied for seventh-most in the Big Ten while his 10 tackles for loss were 15th in the conference.
LB, TCU, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 9.5 TFLs
2022 ranking: NR
After transferring from Navy, the linebacker showed why Sonny Dykes wanted him in Fort Worth. He led TCU with 87 tackles, the most by a Horned Frog since Garret Wallow had 90 in 2020, according to the school. It earned him Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year honors, as well as second-team All-Big 12.
LB, Oklahoma State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 5 sacks, 12 QBH
2022 ranking: NR
A converted defensive end, Oliver led Oklahoma State in sacks in each of the past two seasons (11.5 and 5.5); led the team in quarterback hurries with 12 last season; led the Big 12 in sacks in 2021 and has earned second-team All-Big 12 honors in each of the past two seasons.
QB, Tennessee, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 971 yards, 10 TDs in 8 games
2022 ranking: NR
Milton served as Hendon Hooker’s backup the past two seasons and stepped in after Hooker was injured late last season. Milton, who has one of the strongest arms in college football, tied a career high with three touchdown passes and was named MVP in the Vols’ 31-14 Orange Bowl victory over Clemson to close the 2022 season. The 6-5, 245-pound redshirt senior started his career at Michigan before transferring to Tennessee. He threw 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions a year ago.
RB, Oregon, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,058 yards rushing, 5 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
After arriving from Minnesota via the transfer portal last year, Irving settled in nicely in the Ducks’ offense, averaging 6.8 yards per carry on his way to a 1,000-yard season and five touchdowns as well as 299 receiving yards. His performance was good enough to make him the likely top back for Dan Lanning’s team heading into this season.
RB, Kansas, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,090 yards, 9 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The Big 12’s only returning 1,000-yard rusher, Neal amassed 1,090 yards and nine touchdowns as a sophomore. He became the first KU player ever to have 200 yards rushing and 100 receiving against Oklahoma State when he ran for 224 yards and a TD on 6.1 yards per carry and added 110 yards on six receptions.
DT, LSU, sophomore
Notable 2021 stats: 4 sacks, 13 solo tackles
2022 ranking: NR
The 6-6, 315-pound Smith returns as one of the interior anchors of LSU’s defensive line. He was primed for a big season a year ago, but he injured his knee in the first quarter of the opener against Florida State and missed the remainder of the season. Smith was a Freshman All-America selection in 2021 after recording five tackles for loss, including four sacks. Even as a freshman, he was the target of frequent double teams.
TE, Utah, senior
Notable 2021 stats: 611 receiving yards, 7 total TDs
2022 ranking: NR
A season-ending injury ended what was shaping up to an outstanding senior year in 2022 after just four games. Kuithe has been named second-team All-Pac-12 three times, has 148 career receptions and had 32 straight games with a catch.
LB, NC State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 12.5 TFLs, 45 sacks, 3 PBUs, 1 INT
2022 ranking: NR
When Wilson decided to return to the Wolfpack for one more season, he gave NC State a huge boost to a linebacker group that is replacing two long-time starters. His veteran presence alone will be a big advantage. Last season, Wilson had 83 tackles to rank third on the team and was pivotal in helping the Wolfpack rank among the best run defenses in the ACC.
LB, Penn State, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 56 tackles, 6.5 sacks
2022 ranking: NR
Carter was second on the Nittany Lions in tackles with 56 last season while leading the way with his 6½ sacks. On the way toward earning second team All-Big Ten recognition, he became the eighth linebacker in school history to record at least 10 tackles for loss and six sacks in a season.
S, Texas, senior
Notable 2020 stats: 95 tackles, 2 FF, 3 INTs
2022 ranking: NR
An Arkansas transfer, Catalon suffered a season-ending injury in the opener against Cincinnati last year after making eight tackles in the game. In 2021, he started the first six games, making 46 tackles, before suffering another season-ending injury. He was a breakout star and a freshman All-American in 2020 with 99 tackles, three interceptions and four passes broken up.
QB, Western Kentucky, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 48 total TDs, 4,744 yards (most in FBS)
2022 ranking: NR
A success story for the portal era, Reed’s career includes a Division II national title (West Florida in 2019) and the FBS passing yards title last season (4,746 yards). Reed eclipsed 400 yards four times, including 497 in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. He enters his final season with 12,248 passing yards, 118 career touchdowns and, most importantly, 31 career wins.
DL, Ohio State, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 28 tackles, 10.5 TFLs
2022 ranking: NR
Tuimoloau earned first-team All-Big Ten recognition in 2022 after recording 28 tackles with 10.5 tackles for loss. He dominated in Ohio State’s 44-31 victory at Penn State after compiling six tackles, three tackles for loss, two sacks, two interceptions, forcing one fumble and recovering another fumble.
WR, Florida State, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 58 catches, 798 yards, 7 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Florida State coach Mike Norvell has been praised for his use of the transfer portal, and Coleman is another key addition who is expected to boost the wide receiver group. With Johnny Wilson (6-7), the 6-4 Coleman can also be expected to be a big-play receiver. Last year at Michigan State, Coleman had 58 catches for 798 yards and seven touchdowns — and he ranked fourth in the Big Ten with 15 catches of at least 20 yards.
QB, Kansas State, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,633 yards, 15 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Howard had six starts over the second half of last season, including the Wildcats’ Big 12 Championship win over TCU. He recorded multiple touchdown passes in six straight games, the longest streak ever in a single season at Kansas State. The 6-5 senior comes into the 2023 season just about to enter the top 10 in school history in many statistical categories, if he’s not already in them.
LB, Texas, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 4 INTs, 119 tackles, 10 TFLs
2022 ranking: NR
Last season, Ford finished with a career-high 119 tackles, which was also the most for a Texas linebacker in almost 10 years. In addition, he had 10 tackles for loss and is sure to vie for the Big 12 defensive player of the year title after falling just short of it in 2022.
OL, Utah, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 894 snaps, 2nd-most among Pac-12 RTs
2022 ranking: NR
A three-time All-Pac-12 honoree, Laumea was a first-team selection in 2022 after making 14 starts, including 13 at right tackle. He anchored a line that helped the Utes rank No. 2 in the Pac-12 in rushing.
LT, Duke, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 2 sacks allowed on 465 pass rush snaps
2022 ranking: NR
There were plenty of reasons for Duke’s sudden turnaround from 3-9 in 2021 to 9-4 in 2022, but Barton may have been among the biggest. He anchored the left tackle spot on a vastly improved O-line, finishing the season as the top-graded tackle in the ACC by Pro Football Focus (and fifth overall), allowing just 10 pressures and two sacks all season.
WR, South Carolina, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 68 catches, 6 TDs, 928 yards
2022 ranking: NR
His nickname is “Juice,” and that’s what Wells provides for a South Carolina offense that played its best football at the end of last season. The 6-1, 208-pound senior returns for his second season with the Gamecocks after beginning his career at James Madison. Wells became the go-to guy for quarterback Spencer Rattler a year ago. He earned first-team All-SEC honors after leading the team in catches (68), receiving yards (928) and touchdown receptions (6).
QB, Duke, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,396 total yards, 33 total TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Perhaps the most unheralded quarterback in the ACC, those who have not paid attention for the last year should start paying attention now. Leonard won the starting quarterback job last year in preseason camp and has not looked back, throwing for 3,348 yards, 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions. But he can run, too. Leonard is one of three FBS quarterbacks returning in 2023 who gained 2,900 or more passing yards and 695 or more rushing yards last year, joining Jayden Daniels (LSU) and Drake Maye (UNC).
QB, South Carolina, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,026 yards, 18 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
It’s been a rollercoaster ride for Rattler, who was at one point a Heisman Trophy front-runner at Oklahoma. After losing his job to Caleb Williams, Rattler transferred to South Carolina and put it all together at the end of last season, including a school-record six touchdown passes in the 63-38 win over Tennessee. Rattler finished the season with 4,026 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’s 23-7 in 30 career starts at Oklahoma and South Carolina.
RB, Baylor, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 972 yards, 14 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year set a program record for rushing yards by a freshman (972), and his 14 rushing touchdowns were the fourth-most in team history. He ranked second nationally in rushing TDs and fifth in rushing yards as he became a freshman All-American.
RB, Oregon State, sophomore
Notable 2022 stats: 982 rushing yards, 7 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
In and around Oregon State there was plenty of hype surrounding the arrival of Martinez, an incoming freshman from Lewisville, Texas. By season’s end, the Beavers’ offense couldn’t function without giving Martinez, who had six straight 100-yard games to finish the regular season, at least 15 carries per game. He finished with 982 yards and five touchdowns in his debut season.
DE, Boston College, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 8.5 sacks, 14.5 TFLs, 4 QBHs, 3 FFs
2022 ranking: NR
The BC edge rusher has a good case as the most underrated impact player in college football. He toiled largely in the shadows during an abysmal 3-9 season for the Eagles last year, but he was often unblockable for opposing lines, finishing with 8.5 sacks, 14.5 TFL and three forced fumbles.
WR, Syracuse, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 61 catches, 969 yards, 6 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
Is he a tight end or a wide receiver? Stop asking, Dino Babers said. Gadsden is just a football player — one who’s nearly impossible to defend. At 6-5, 220 pounds, Gadsden makes for an imposing-yet-agile target, and last year he used his impressive size and skills to rack up 61 catches for 969 yards and six touchdowns for the Orange.
CB, Kansas, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 3 INTs, 9 PBUs
2022 ranking: NR
Bryant was named All-Big 12 first team by the league’s coaches, finishing his sophomore year with 37 tackles, nine passes defensed and three interceptions in 10 starts. He sealed a Jayhawks win over West Virginia with an interception in overtime.
QB, Tulane, senior
Notable 2022 stats: 3,010 yards, 34 total TDs
2022 ranking: NR
After a frustrating 2021 season, Pratt and his Green Wave pulled off one of the most incredible turnarounds imaginable, surging to an AAC title and Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic win over USC. Pratt threw for 3,010 yards and 27 touchdowns. Efficient with his arm and legs, Pratt will now lead a title defense in a new-look AAC.
RB, Southern Miss, junior
Notable 2022 stats: 1,382 yards, 9 TDs
2022 ranking: NR
The younger Gore has lived up to all expectations in Hattiesburg. In 2022 he generated 1,601 yards from scrimmage, averaging more than six yards per carry and 11 yards per catch. At times over the past two years, he’s even been Southern Miss’ best QB, albeit of the Wildcat variety. He does it all.
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Bill Connelly
It took a while for college football to orient itself this season. Three of the top four teams in the preseason AP Top 25 poll started poorly, and only one really recovered. Nine of the preseason top 17 went 8-4 or worse. Meanwhile, some teams that were expected to be good — preseason No. 20 Indiana, No. 21 Ole Miss and No. 23 Texas Tech — turned out to be playoff-caliber dynamite.
Things were pretty messy for a while as the sport figured itself out, but once the hierarchy was established, it was established. Over the past three weeks, teams ranked 14th or higher in the AP poll have gone a combined 35-3, and all three losses were to opponents ranked 16th or higher.
The ACC and the coaching carousel did their best to ensure that there was always something messy and/or chaotic happening, but we’ve reached Championship Week with the balance of power firmly set. Now we get to find out if college football decides to offer one last burst of absolute nonsense. Here’s everything you need to follow during what is likely to be either a very orderly or incredibly fraught Championship Week.
All times Eastern
Championship Week chaos scenarios
This weekend is basically setting up like college football’s version of one of those “We can do this the easy way or the hard way” moments in a mob movie. If Texas Tech and Virginia win as favorites in the Big 12 and ACC championship games, respectively, and if Alabama beats Georgia as it almost always does — since 2017, Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs are 1-7 against the Crimson Tide and 107-8 against everyone else — then college football will have chosen the easy way.
If it unfolds that way, we’ll be able to predict with near certainty who will be in the College Football Playoff. The at-large bids will go to current No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Indiana (whichever loses the Big Ten championship game), No. 3 Georgia, No. 5 Oregon, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 8 Oklahoma and either No. 10 Notre Dame or No. 12 Miami, depending on how much overthinking the playoff committee decides to undertake. Per SP+, however, there’s only a 22% chance we get those three results. And things could get weird if we stray from the script.
(* If No. 11 BYU’s ranking slips, therefore putting Notre Dame and Miami next to each other in the rankings, the committee could decide to move Miami ahead because of the Hurricanes’ head-to-head win. It’s what they tend to do when teams with a head-to-head result end up next to each other. I personally think that win is the only reason Miami deserves to rank even as high as 12th — they have neither played nor beaten any other ranked teams, and they lost to two unranked teams in by far the worst of the power conferences. Notre Dame’s résumé undoubtedly has similar holes, but the committee had many weeks to rank Miami ahead of Notre Dame and didn’t do it, and it would be impossibly silly to do it after a week in which neither team — and only one of their 2025 opponents — played a single game. I’m extremely ready to go back to a BCS-like formula.)
What if BYU beats Texas Tech (23% chance, per SP+)? Last year, Clemson became the first official bid thief of the 12-team playoff era with its win over SMU in the ACC championship game. This year, BYU appears to be the designated thief. The Cougars have lost only to No. 4 Texas Tech and, at 11th, could claim to have been slighted by the committee. They clearly need to win to get in, and if they do, they will likely steal Notre Dame’s (or Miami’s?) ticket. The Fighting Irish, who have won 10 straight games by an average of 43-14, were ranked ninth for three straight weeks before mysteriously slipping to 10th on Tuesday. That puts them in line to get snubbed with a Big 12 upset.
What if BYU wins and Alabama loses (13% chance)? Last season, SMU made the CFP despite losing in the ACC championship game; from that, we derived that the committee had decided not to punish a team for earning a 13th game when others around it in the rankings had not. The Mustangs did fall from eighth to 10th, however. It wasn’t enough to knock them from the playoff field, but they still dropped.
So what will happen if Alabama loses to Georgia, perhaps by a solid margin? Will Bama fall behind Notre Dame? And if BYU has also won … will that mean the Cougars steal the Tide’s bid?
Tuesday’s rankings give us reason to doubt that Bama would move at all, of course. In fact, the only real justification for the Tide jumping Notre Dame this week is that the committee was giving itself a cushion in case of a Bama loss. There is, after all, no universe in which the Tide beating 5-7 Auburn in the last minute was more impressive than Notre Dame beating 4-8 Stanford by 29, and I wouldn’t think that A&M falling from third to seventh would make the Irish’s loss to the Aggies look significantly worse. Regardless, now the committee might not have to worry about eliminating Bama with a bad performance in Atlanta. But what if BYU wins and the Tide lay an absolute egg?
What if Duke wins (32% chance)? BYU aside, Championship Week’s biggest chaos agent is clearly Duke. Manny Diaz’s 7-5 Blue Devils eked out an ACC championship bid thanks to a set of tiebreakers that will almost certainly be redrawn soon. They are only 3.5-point underdogs against Virginia, and a Blue Devils win could give a playoff ticket to a second Group of 5 champion. James Madison would be first in line, though an 11-2 UNLV team will be intriguing if JMU loses and the Rebels finally figure out how to beat Boise State for the Mountain West championship.
Of course, with the lengths the committee went to avoid ranking another G5 team besides Tulane — JMU and North Texas didn’t make it in until this week, and barely at that — Duke itself could still simply hop JMU. The Blue Devils hold about four teams’ playoff hopes in their upset-minded hands.
And before you complain about undeserving teams making the field, this is how playoffs work! Teams with bad records reach the high school playoffs all the time. So do the champions of various lower-budget FCS, Division II or Division III conferences. Four teams with losing records have made the NFL playoffs since 2010. This is the way it should be. We should let more conference champs in, actually.
These are the chaos scenarios to watch for. Now let’s talk about the actual games.
Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox
Back in the BCS days, the people in charge would change the way the computer ratings portion of the BCS formula worked anytime they disagreed with the results. Constantly saying, “I don’t like that, let’s change something” creates a worse process as often as not.
One year into the 12-team playoff era, the college football world declared, “I don’t like that, let’s change something.” When the “top four conference champions receive first-round byes” rule produced odd results in Year 1 — namely, byes going to No. 9 Boise State and No. 12 Arizona State — the title-winner byes were immediately ditched. As a result, we get the most low-consequence No. 1 versus No. 2 December game imaginable. Barring an absolute blowout, Ohio State and Indiana are likely to receive top-four seeds and first-round byes no matter what happens in Indianapolis on Saturday.
Now, Indiana is playing for its first Big Ten title in 58 years; that’s pretty big. Plus, since both quarterbacks, IU’s Fernando Mendoza and OSU’s Julian Sayin, are among the three betting favorites in the Heisman race, it’s hard not to look at this game as a winner-take-all situation for that award. (Root for a defensive slugfest, Diego Pavia!) But this might turn out to be the first of two Hoosiers-Buckeyes games, and the second one will be much bigger.
This one will still be educational, though, and I have two huge questions:
Will Indiana’s offensive line hold up? In 2024, the Hoosiers lost to only the two national title game participants, Ohio State and Notre Dame. In both games, the IU defense mostly held up, but the offense vanished: Whereas the Hoosiers averaged 464 yards in wins, they gained a total of 429 yards in the two losses. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke’s injury limitations didn’t help, but IU running backs averaged only 4.0 yards per carry, and Rourke took eight sacks in 60 pass attempts.
This season, Indiana ranks first in rushing success rate* and a solid 35th in sack rate allowed. Backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black keep the Hoosiers on schedule, and Mendoza gets the ball out of his hands quickly. The offense performed well enough against a pair of SP+ top-10 defenses (Iowa and Oregon), but Ohio State’s defense is the best in the country. How well will the Hoosiers hold up, especially up front?
(*Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Can Ohio State turn on the explosiveness? Ryan Day and coordinator Brian Hartline have created a sturdy offensive structure for maximizing Sayin’s ridiculous accuracy and keeping the redshirt freshman out of awkward downs and distances. The Buckeyes operate with one of the nation’s slowest tempos, and Sayin throws the ball as quickly as possible. He has completed a record 78.9% of his passes, and with a good-not-great run game as a complement, Ohio State ranks second nationally in success and three-and-out rates.
The tradeoff, however, is a major lack of big plays.
The Buckeyes rank just 111th in yards per successful play (11.5), and while we know all about the epic talent of receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, Sayin very selectively looks deep. That keeps both the negative and big-play counts low.
Big plays are the way to score on Indiana, however. The Hoosiers have allowed only 11 offensive touchdowns this season: Six were from 44 yards or longer, and two more were set up by gains of 40-plus. IU is fifth in success rate allowed and ninth in sack rate — the Hoosiers don’t let you dink and dunk all the way down the field. Can Ohio State create chunk plays without exposing Sayin to hits and mistakes?
Current line: OSU -4 (down from -5.5 at open) | SP+ projection: OSU by 0.9 | FPI projection: IU by 0.1
Saturday, 4 p.m., ABC
If Alabama beats Georgia, we could end up with a situation in which a) the extremely top-heavy Big Ten gets only three CFP teams, but they all get top-four seeds and first-round byes, and b) the SEC gets five teams, but none of them are in the top four. Granted, there’s also a chance that the committee surges Bama up to fourth in this scenario, but based on the season the SEC has had, “five bids and no byes” would be apt. It currently has no top-five teams in the SP+ rankings, but it still has seven of the top 13 and, comfortably, the best average rating.
Of course, for all the talk of parity within this conference, we’re getting our fourth Bama-Georgia title game in eight years, and a Georgia win — the Dawgs are favored — will be its third title in four years. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose and whatnot.
Writing about Alabama this season has been a strange experience. The Crimson Tide have mostly been “little things” masters, owning the red zone on both ends, winning the field position and turnover battles and closing games out beautifully, going 4-1 in one-score games. But they have also only rarely looked dominant despite the legion of former blue-chippers on their roster. They’ve ranked between ninth and 12th in SP+ for the past seven weeks, and in that span, they’ve played almost precisely to projections (which suggests that the ranking is pretty accurate).
They beat Georgia 10 weeks ago, however, and that brings them back to Atlanta to face a Georgia team that … has rarely dominated despite the legion of former blue-chippers on their roster. The Dawgs are also 4-1 in one-score finishes, and while they had to lean heavily on offense early in the season — they beat Tennessee 44-41 and beat Ole Miss 43-35 — they’ve allowed just 22 total points in their past three games, a run that includes their one truly resounding performance, a 35-10 blowout of Texas.
In the teams’ first meeting, two major habits came to bear. Alabama, which ranks eighth nationally in points per drive in the first half (and only 33rd in the second), bolted to a 14-0 lead and led 24-14 at halftime. In the second half, however, Georgia took control, tilting the field and creating a pair of red zone opportunities to Bama’s zero. A fourth-down stop in the fourth quarter, however, made the difference in a 24-21 Tide win. For the game, the Dawgs averaged 6.7 yards per play to Bama’s 5.2, but the Tide won 19 of 27 total third downs and finished plus-1 in turnovers. That was just enough.
This was one of five games in which Georgia took snaps while trailing in the second half. It was the only one the Dawgs didn’t win. For whatever their upside might be this year, there’s never going to be any question about their ability to brawl for 60 full minutes.
Georgia’s defense has rounded into form of late, but the Dawgs still face an awkward matchup with the Tide offense, in that it defends the run far better than the pass and Bama is happy to abandon the run and put the game in Ty Simpson‘s hands. Regardless, the early going will be huge: Georgia is more experienced and more effective at playing from behind. And if you’re rooting for the “What happens if Bama gets genuinely thumped?” scenario, Georgia going up early is an obvious step one.
Current line: UGA -2.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 2.8 | FPI projection: Bama by 0.3
Saturday, noon, ABC
I don’t think we’ve talked enough about how good Texas Tech is this season. I mean, everyone knows the Red Raiders are good — they’re 11-1, they’re fourth in the CFP rankings and defenders Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey are surefire All-Americans. They aren’t exactly flying under the radar. But while SP+ has locked in pretty well on most teams, it continues to underestimate Tech’s capabilities, even while ranking it third nationally. The Red Raiders overachieved against projections by an average of 14.0 points in November, winning four games (including one against BYU) by an average of 42-9. In fact, the only time they’ve really underachieved all season was in their 26-22 loss to Arizona State, when they were without starting quarterback Behren Morton. They even managed to overachieve in three other partial or whole games without Morton. This is a scary team.
BYU has all the motivation in this one, however, knowing that its playoff hopes are now fully win or bust. (The Cougars might also get an “Our head coach just chose us over Penn State” boost.) Will that make a difference? Or is Tech just too damn good?
BYU’s defense played brilliantly in the teams’ first meeting, a 29-7 Tech win on Nov. 8. The Cougars held Tech to just a 33.3% success rate, 13 percentage points below its season average, and allowed the Red Raiders just two touchdowns in seven red zone trips. The score was only 13-0 at halftime, and wasted opportunities made it seem like Tech could be vulnerable to a comeback, but the BYU offense just couldn’t deliver. For just about the only time all season, BYU’s Bear Bachmeier looked like the true freshman he is, throwing for just 188 yards at 4.5 yards per dropback and losing an interception and fumble. Given enough opportunities, Tech finally put the game away.
An upset will require the same high level of defensive play and far better execution on offense. Having running back LJ Martin at full strength will help — Martin was hurt the week before the first matchup and gained just 35 yards in 10 carries against Tech. His 222-yard performance two weeks ago against Cincinnati suggests he’s playing at a high level, and BYU should get another couple of recently banged-up starters back as well. But we just don’t know what exactly will beat the Tech defense because almost nothing has.
The Red Raiders have given up more than 17 points just twice all season and only allowed one team, Kansas State, to top 4.8 yards per play (the Wildcats averaged a still pedestrian 5.2). BYU might be able to hold Tech under 28 points with another strong effort, but it might take the best performance of Bachmeier’s life to hit 28 or more.
Current line: Tech -12.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 11.7 | FPI projection: Tech by 4.3
Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC
As fun as it’s been to envision wild scenarios that might unfold if Duke wins the ACC, Virginia could put an end to all of this creativity by simply repeating what happened the last time the Cavaliers met the Blue Devils. Three weeks ago, they put together probably their most complete performance of the season in a 34-17 romp.
Success rate: Virginia 40.3%, Duke 31.0%
Yards per play: Virginia 7.0, Duke 4.4
Field position margin: Virginia plus-6.7 per drive
Third downs: Virginia 12-19, Duke 4-15
Sacks: Virginia 4, Duke 0
Turnovers: Virginia 2, Duke 1
UVA played far more efficient ball than the Blue Devils, enjoyed eight gains of 20-plus yards to Duke’s three and won 23 of 34 total third downs (67%). The only reason the game finished as close as 17 points was because of two Hoos turnovers, one of which was a pick-six.
Virginia has been the better team in 2025, but these teams’ first game was a bit of an outlier. UVA’s seasonlong averages aren’t quite as advantageous, and Duke’s offense has been especially strong down the stretch. The Blue Devils have scored more than 30 points in four of the past five games (UVA being the exception), and Darian Mensah finished the regular season first in the ACC in passing yards and third in Total QBR.
Mensah has been a high-volume, high-accuracy playmaker, and Duke has improved from 71st to 23rd in offensive SP+ in a single season.
Unfortunately for Duke, the defense has fallen from 31st to 91st. Against seven top-60 offenses this season, including Virginia’s, Duke allowed 36.4 points per game. Virginia’s offensive production trailed off over the back half of the season, but the Hoos still torched the Blue Devils: Chandler Morris threw for 316 yards, Trell Harris caught eight balls for 161 yards and J’Mari Taylor rushed for 133 yards in 18 carries.
Mensah and receivers Cooper Barkate and Que’Sean Brown torched Clemson and Wake Forest — defenses that grade out about as well as UVA’s — and Duke could absolutely turn this into a track meet. But Virginia probably has the advantage in a track meet too.
Current line: UVA -3.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 7.3 | FPI projection: UVA by 1.5
Friday, 8 p.m., ABC
With four of five Group of 5 title games taking place Friday night, we’ll have a clear view of the stakes of Virginia-Duke by Saturday morning. But it’s safe to assume that the winner of this game, pitting two ranked teams with soon-departing head coaches (UNT’s Oklahoma State-bound Eric Morris and Tulane’s Florida-bound Jon Sumrall) in potentially very rainy conditions, is in.
For all of the money being thrown around to stars in today’s college football landscape, the best offense in the country, per SP+, was crafted in Denton, Texas, and features a true freshman (RB Caleb Hawkins), a redshirt freshman who didn’t start in high school (QB Drew Mestemaker) and transfers from Kent State, Abilene Christian, Shepherd University and the now-closed Limestone University. North Texas is averaging 46.8 points and 511.8 yards; the Mean Green have topped 50 points seven times and even scored 36 in their lone loss.
The Mean Green’s schedule, however, has lacked. They’ve played only one team currently ranked higher than 57th in SP+ (South Florida), and they lost to the Bulls by 27 points. Granted, that margin was mostly due to the worst middle eight of all time — USF went on a 28-0 run between the 0:02 mark of the second quarter and 11:35 of the third — but it still counts, and UNT hasn’t had another chance to prove itself against a particularly good opponent.
Tulane is good. Granted, the Green Wave have allowed 38.5 points per game and 7.1 yards per play to the only two top-20 offenses they’ve faced. But they’re improving on D — they solidly overachieved against defensive projections down the stretch — and they have an offense that can keep up in a track meet: They’re 10th nationally in passing success rate, with Jake Retzlaff combining 2,717 passing yards with a solid 621 non-sack rushing yards.
Neither of these defenses is amazing, but neither gives up a ton of big plays either. This one will probably come down to which defense allows the fewest big shots and easy points
Current line: UNT -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 8.2 | FPI projection: UNT by 2.0
Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN
Troy has reached the Sun Belt championship game through sheer perseverance. Gerad Parker’s Trojans won three straight wild one-score games early in the season. They also overcame an early-season QB injury, with Tucker Kilcrease filling in for Goose Crowder, who is back in the lineup and slinging the ball around well. Good pass defense and random offensive spurts have given them a chance at a third Sun Belt title in four years.
The odds, of course, aren’t great. JMU did lose four times as a favorite last year, and distractions can always strike when your coach is leaving, but Troy is a three-touchdown underdog, and JMU will be hunting for style points in super-chilly Harrisonburg.
JMU’s defense ranks first in success rate allowed and has allowed more than 5.1 yards per play just once all season. They boast difference-makers at each level, from defensive ends Sahir West and Aiden Gobaira up front to safety Jacob Thomas in the back. The offense was surprisingly inconsistent early in 2025 but ignited against Old Dominion and hasn’t looked back: In their past six games, the Dukes have averaged 48.5 points and 7.4 yards per play. Alonza Barnett is 14th nationally in Total QBR in that span, distributing the ball beautifully to five different pass catchers.
The only close call JMU has suffered since the offensive ignition came against Washington State: The Cougars kept the tempo at a crawl, won third and fourth downs and limited the Dukes to just 50 snaps. It still didn’t work — JMU scored on two long second-half touchdowns and won 24-20. But if Troy pulls a scare, it will be from a similar recipe. The Trojans can land some shots defensively, and they’re pretty good on third down and willing on fourth. But the margin for error here is minimal.
Current line: JMU -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: JMU by 20.2 | FPI projection: JMU by 18.4
Friday, 8 p.m., Fox
Since the start of 2023, UNLV is 30-10 overall, an incredible run for a program with minimal historical success. The Rebels have gone 5-3 against power conference programs in that span, and they’re 18-7 in the Mountain West. Just imagine how great things might be if they could actually beat Boise State: The Rebels are 0-4 against the Broncos in this span, including losses in back-to-back MWC championship games. If momentum means anything in this sport, however — I often doubt it does — and the Rebels can adapt to cold and rainy conditions in Boise, the timing might finally be right.
Five weeks ago, this matchup seemed unlikely. UNLV had lost two straight games, giving up 96 combined points to Boise State and New Mexico and falling to 123rd in defensive SP+. BSU, meanwhile, had just lost quarterback Maddux Madsen to injury and had fallen 30-7 to Fresno State. The Broncos would lose to San Diego State in their next game, too.
BSU quarterback Max Cutforth found his footing, however, and helped to lead a blowout of Colorado State and a comeback win at Utah State. UNLV, meanwhile, suddenly found a defense and beat its past four conference opponents by an average of 38-16. The Rebels have looked so good that they rose from 71st to 41st in SP+ in just four weeks.
Madsen, who is scheduled to return Friday, threw for 253 yards and four touchdowns in BSU’s 56-31 win over UNLV in Week 8, while Dylan Riley rushed for 201 yards in just 15 carries. Even in the Rebels’ improved state, they still aren’t defending the run well. UNLV can keep up in most track meets, and holding the Broncos under 35 will give it a chance. But that might not be guaranteed.
Current line: BSU -4.5 (up from -1.5) | SP+ projection: UNLV by 0.4 | FPI projection: BSU by 4.0
Friday, 7 p.m., CBSSN
For the second straight season, a second-year FBS program will play for the CUSA title. Last year, second-year Jacksonville State wiped the floor with Western Kentucky; now Kennesaw State gives it a go against the champs.
Jerry Mack’s first KSU team has found success by raising its floor: The Owls don’t rank high in many of the categories I track, but they’re also near the bottom in almost none. They defend the run well — linebacker Baron Hopson is ridiculously good in this department — they hit on some deep passes to Gabriel Benyard and Christian Moss, and they wait for you to make mistakes.
JSU lost a ton from last year’s conference title squad, but after a wobbly 3-3 start, the Gamecocks found an offensive rhythm by running the hell out of the ball: Cam Cook has rushed for 1,588 yards, and not including sacks, quarterback Caden Creel has added 1,008. The defense is decent but clutch offensive play has allowed the Gamecocks to win six of seven games despite five finishing within one score.
These two met three weeks ago in a game decided by big plays and turnovers. Jax State scored on a second-quarter Hail Mary, Creel produced completions of 50 and 52 yards (plus a 40-yard rush), and the Gamecocks picked off three passes in the red zone in a 35-26 win. None of that’s particularly sustainable, though, especially since KSU has been the better overall red zone team in 2025.
Current line: KSU -2.5 (flipped from JSU -1.5) | SP+ projection: KSU by 1.4 | FPI projection: KSU by 0.3
Saturday, noon, ESPN
Miami is playing in the MAC championship game for the third straight season — the Redhawks won in 2023 and lost last year — while WMU is enjoying its best campaign, and first title game appearance, since 2016.
Chuck Martin’s Redhawks lost basically every offensive starter and half the defense after last season and landed only a few major contributors from the transfer portal. But they got rolling after an 0-3 start, and when quarterback Dequan Finn left the program in November, redshirt freshman Thomas Gotkowski took over and led comfortable wins over Buffalo and Ball State.
WMU also started 0-3, but the Broncos have since won eight of nine — losing only to Miami, in fact. Thanks in part to otherworldly outside linebacker Nadame Tucker (18.5 TFLs, 12 sacks, 4 forced fumbles), their defense ranks 46th in defensive SP+, their highest ranking since 2000.
Miami turned the tables late in their Week 9 matchup. WMU took a 17-9 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Redhawks outgained the Broncos 160-61 in the fourth, forced a turnover and finished the game on a 17-0 run. Gotkowski has gotten away with mostly quick passes to the sideline, but the Redhawks might need him to ramp up the playmaking to maintain their Week 9 advantages. Otherwise WMU could seize its first title in nine years.
Current line: WMU -2.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 1.2 | FPI projection: WMU by 0.2
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The smaller-school playoffs are hitting top speed, so here’s a game you should track at each level.
Division II quarterfinals: No. 16 Newberry at No. 13 Albany State (ESPN+, 1 p.m.). The Division II quarterfinals feature projected blowout wins for the three best teams — Ferris State, Harding and Kutztown — but the last semifinal spot will go to one of two upstarts.
Both Albany State and Newberry are seeking their first D-II semifinal appearance. ASU is the projected favorite because of defensive end Derrick Drayton and a defense that allows just 13.3 points per game. Newberry, however, just upset No. 4 West Florida thanks to 416 passing yards and two touchdowns from quarterback Reed Charpia. Do the Wolves have another upset in them?
SP+ projection: Albany State by 7.3
Division III round of 16: No. 6 Saint John’s (Minn.) at No. 4 Wisconsin-River Falls (1 p.m., ESPN+). Saint John’s has been to only one semifinal since winning the 2003 D-III national title, but the Johnnies are flying thanks to quarterback Trey Feeney and an offense averaging 50.4 points per game. UWRF, meanwhile, is looking for its first quarterfinal appearance in 30 years, and Kaleb Blaha and the Falcons also wing the ball around like crazy and score lots of points (47.5 PPG)! Track meet in River Falls!
SP+ projection: Johnnies by 1.4
NAIA quarterfinals: No. 7 Lindsey Wilson at No. 1 Grand View (1 p.m., local streaming). It’s the No. 1 team in the NAIA polls vs. the No. 1 team in NAIA SP+. Grand View is NAIA’s standard bearer; the Vikings are the defending national champions and have gone a cool 83-5 since 2019. The defense allows 8.4 points per game thanks to ace pass rusher Jackson Filer (23 TFLs, 11 sacks). But Lindsey Wilson is scoring 44.8 points per game with absurd run-pass balance. And there’s a chance of afternoon snow in Des Moines!
SP+ projection: LWU by 1.5
FCS round of 16: No. 18 South Dakota State at No. 4 Montana (2 p.m., ESPN+). So is South Dakota State suddenly South Dakota State again? The Jackrabbits needed a miracle finish against North Dakota to assure themselves a spot in the playoffs, but with quarterback Chase Mason healthy and back in the lineup, they crushed New Hampshire 41-3 in last week’s first round. Mason’s in-season injury might end up being Montana’s misfortune — SDSU is unbeaten when he starts, and now the Grizzlies have to beat the Jacks just to reach the quarterfinals. Luckily they have quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat and a pretty fantastic offense themselves.
SP+ projection: Montana by 5.6
GRAPEVINE, Texas – Welcome to the College Football Playoff, Tulane.
The No. 20 Green Wave dismantled No. 24 North Texas, providing the selection committee with its first answer of conference championship weekend.
The committee gathered Friday night at its headquarters in the Gaylord Texan resort to watch Group of 5 conference championship games that will impact its final ranking on Selection Day. It was only the beginning of conference championship weekend, but how these games unfolded with the committee watching will determine its five highest-ranked conference champions — and how that order will impact the contenders around them.
Here’s an early look at what Friday night’s results meant to the playoff race, starting with the Sun Belt and the American Conference.
Tulane 34, North Texas 21
With Tulane’s win against North Texas, the American champs locked up a spot in the playoff, as they will be the committee’s fourth-highest ranked conference champion. The Green Wave will earn the No. 11 seed and face the committee’s No. 6 team on the road in the first round. If the committee keeps Ole Miss at No. 6, Tulane will get a rematch against the Rebels. Ole Miss beat Tulane 45-10 on Sept. 20 in Oxford and will have home-field advantage again as the higher seed.
James Madison 31, Troy 14
With Friday’s win against Troy, JMU‘s path to the playoff is straightforward: Duke needs to beat Virginia and win the ACC. If that happens, the committee will reward JMU with the No. 12 seed as its fifth and final conference champion — and it would come at the expense of the ACC champion, which would be excluded. The question is if the conference will be excluded entirely, though — or if No. 12 Miami will still sneak in, even without playing this weekend. That could happen if BYU loses to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game and drops behind Miami — putting the Canes right below No. 10 Notre Dame. In that scenario, the committee could look at Miami’s season-opening win against the Irish as one of several tiebreakers it uses to separate comparable teams.
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Andrea Adelson
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Duke coach Manny Diaz says his team has embraced all the doomsday scenarios that have been laid out this week as his 7-5 team prepares to play No. 17 Virginia in the ACC championship game.
If Duke wins the game, there is the possibility the ACC champion would get left out of the 12-team College Football Playoff, as three Group of 5 teams are ranked higher than the Blue Devils. No. 24 North Texas and No. 20 Tulane play in the American title game, while No. 25 James Madison plays Troy in the Sun Belt title game, both on Friday.
“We love it, doomsday scenario and nightmares and this and that the other,” Diaz said. “Our guys deserve to be here. That’s the first thing. There’s a notion that we won a scratch-off lottery-ticket-type deal to get here. We won by the most objective metric possible. We won the second-most games in the league, and everyone else who won the same amount of games that we won, we had the hardest schedule.
“We complain all the time about the subjectivity in college football and rankings and committees and whatnot, and this is the most objective way to determine who the champions are, and the two teams are here that deserve to be here. We’re one of them.”
Duke finished in a five-way tie in the ACC at 6-2. One of the teams that finished in that tie was No. 12 Miami (10-2), a team on the bubble for an at-large CFP berth. The Blue Devils won the fifth tiebreaker, which was conference opponent win percentage. Miami coach Dan Radakovich said earlier in the week the ACC should revisit its championship game tiebreaker policy to ensure the league was putting its “best foot forward.”
Diaz noted his team finished plus-16 in turnover margin in conference games, one of the biggest reasons it is in Charlotte.
The two teams met earlier in November, with Virginia winning 34-17. The top five conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the CFP, regardless of conference. Duke lost three nonconference games, including two on the road to teams outside the Power 4 — at Tulane and at UConn.
Diaz has remained adamant that despite seeing three Group of 5 teams ranked, if his team wins the ACC, it deserves to make the field.
He also noted the point spread in the Big Ten title game between Indiana and Ohio State is the same as the point spread in the ACC title game. Ohio State and Virginia are each favored by 4.
“Those guys in Vegas, they tend to know things,” Diaz said. “No one’s talking about how Indiana doesn’t deserve to be in the Big Ten championship game, because, of course, they do. And I think Duke deserves to be here the same exact way.”
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