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Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring counteroffensive is now in its 10th week, with limited evidence of any significant breakthrough of the formidable Russian defences.

President Zelenskyy remains laser-focused on his objective of liberating all Ukrainian territory, but if Ukraine’s military fails to gain momentum in the coming weeks, what next?

In September last year, Ukrainian forces mounted a surprise counteroffensive in northeast Ukraine and liberated 4,600 square miles (12,000 sq km) of territory in a matter of days.

President Zelenskyy argued that he could repeat that initiative on a larger scale with Western support – all he needed was the weapons to do the job.

The West responded by providing an extensive list of advanced military capability, including battle tanks, missiles systems and ammunition.

Read more: Ukraine war latest

However, this all took time to supply and to conduct the requisite training – time that Russia exploited to build extensive layered defensive systems.

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Ukraine started its spring offensive in early June, but despite some ferocious fighting the Russian fortifications still appear largely intact.

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Ukraine: How is the counteroffensive going?

Although casualty figures are always hard to verify, it is evident that this latest phase of the battle has proven highly attritional, and Ukraine’s offensive would expect to suffer significantly higher casualties, up to three times as many, as its enemy.

Ammunition and weapons are being consumed at a huge rate, and there is no simple way (for either side) to replenish stocks swiftly.

And, notwithstanding the various press releases highlighting drone attacks on Moscow, Black Sea Fleet vessels, ammunition dumps and small communities liberated, these are a sideshow to the main event.

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The metrics of success for Ukraine are not shells fired, tanks destroyed, or enemy casualties achieved – these are simply the price of conflict, not the objective.

For President Zelenskyy the metric of success is simple – it is territory liberated.

Crucially, if Ukraine was able to push Russian forces back to the Crimean Peninsula, Zelenskyy has stated that this might create an opportunity for negotiation.

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Crimea: What happened on the bridge?

But, despite months of rising casualties, progress is slow – very slow.

Reports suggest that Ukraine has started to deploy its main reserve to assist the frontline fight – yet this reserve was intended to exploit any breakthrough to achieve momentum.

Behind the scenes, Western leaders are starting to review options.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg’s chief of staff suggested in a recent interview that Ukraine might need to cede territory to find a lasting peace.

Ukrainian service members of the 128th Separate Territorial Defence Brigade rest during military exercises at a training ground, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine August 16, 2023. REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi
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Ukrainian soldiers rest during military exercises in the Dnipro region

Although he later apologised, this comment likely reflected a growing concern among Western leaders that by continuing to support Ukraine they become complicit in perpetuating this brutal – yet static – conflict.

Ukraine’s determination to fight on is understandable – it is, after all, their war – but there is a developing discussion among Western leaders about the future, and what next?

The formal view appears to be that the West stands ready to support President Zelenskyy “whatever it takes”.

But weapons stockpiles are diminishing, and there are limited reserves left to continue supporting Ukraine, especially given conflicting domestic priorities.

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In hindsight, Ukraine probably could not have secured a better level of military, financial and economic support for this counteroffensive.

If that does not suffice, what will?

Notwithstanding the public show of NATO and Western unity in support of Ukraine, behind the scenes there is growing concern about how to draw this conflict to an end.

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Fierce fighting for Ukrainian village

If Ukraine’s military demonstrates that it has the potential to achieve Zelenskyy’s ambition of liberating occupied-Ukraine, it will likely galvanise Western commitment for the longer-term.

However, if Ukraine fails to gain momentum and continues to suffer huge casualties, its allies might feel obliged to explore options.

Such discussions will not be easy – Ukrainians alone understand the sacrifices, hardships and devastation that the Russian invasion has caused.

But, what price peace?

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At least 20 dead and 150 injured after magnitude 6.3 earthquake in north Afghanistan

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At least 20 dead and 150 injured after magnitude 6.3 earthquake in north Afghanistan

At least 20 people have died after a magnitude 6.3 earthquake in Afghanistan, the Taliban has said.

The tremor was recorded near the city of Mazar-e Sharif, in the northern Balkh province, at around 12.59am on Monday (8.29pm in the UK).

The Taliban Health Ministry added that 320 were injured, while ministry spokesperson Sharfat Zaman said that the numbers of dead and injured might rise.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) has issued an orange alert on its system of quake impacts, and suggested that “significant casualties are likely and the disaster is potentially widespread”.

A rescuer works following an earthquake at an unidentified location in Afghanistan. Pic: Afghan Red Crescent / Reuters
Image:
A rescuer works following an earthquake at an unidentified location in Afghanistan. Pic: Afghan Red Crescent / Reuters

Previous events at that alert level have required a regional or national level response, according to the USGS’s alert system.

Balkh province spokesperson Haji Zaid added that the earthquake destroyed part of the city’s holy shrine, known as the Blue Mosque.

Soldiers dig up debris after an earthquake in Mazar-e Sharif, northern Afghanistan. Pic: Haji Zaid
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Soldiers dig up debris after an earthquake in Mazar-e Sharif, northern Afghanistan. Pic: Haji Zaid

Damage to the Blue Mosque in Mazar-e Sharif. Pic: Haji Zaid
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Damage to the Blue Mosque in Mazar-e Sharif. Pic: Haji Zaid

The United Nations in Afghanistan said on X that it is on the ground assessing needs and delivering aid, and that: “We stand with the affected communities and will provide the necessary support.”

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Mazar-e Sharif is the fifth-largest city in Afghanistan, with a population of around 523,000.

Located on two major active fault lines, Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable to earthquakes: More than 1,400 people were killed and at least 3,250 others injured after a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hit the country’s eastern regions in September.

That tremor wiped out villages in the Mazar Dara valley, which Sky’s Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch visited in October.

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October: Boy recalls being rescued from quake – but losing his brother

In 2015, an earthquake struck northeastern Afghanistan, killing several hundred people in Afghanistan and nearby northern Pakistan.

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Four large earthquakes also struck in the Herat province in 2023, each magnitude 6.3. The Taliban said at the time that at least 2,445 people had died.

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Hurricane Melissa leaves 28 dead after tearing through Jamaica

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Hurricane Melissa leaves 28 dead after tearing through Jamaica

A total of 28 people have died following Hurricane Melissa’s rampage across Jamaica, the government has confirmed.

Melissa, one of the strongest storms on record to make landfall in the Caribbean, brought with it winds of up to 185mph when it hit the island earlier this week.

The Red Cross described it as a “disaster of unprecedented catastrophe”.

Melissa ravaged through Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba.

It weakened by the time it reached Cuba on Wednesday morning but still brought devastation – with houses collapsed and roads blocked.

A statement from the government of Jamaica said it was “deeply saddened to confirm 28 fatalities associated with the passage of Hurricane Melissa”.

It went on: “We extend heartfelt condolences to the families, friends, and communities mourning their loved ones.”

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The confirmation came as the first British repatriation flight was setting off from the island on Saturday evening local time.

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The flight, chartered by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, was for those “unable to leave Jamaica on commercial routes”.

Essential relief supplies are now rolling into some of the hardest hit areas.

Humanitarian aid has arrived and is waiting to be distributed. Pic: AP
Image:
Humanitarian aid has arrived and is waiting to be distributed. Pic: AP

The UK government is mobilising an additional £5m in emergency humanitarian funding – on top of £2.5m announced earlier this week – to support the region’s recovery.

This new funding will enable the UK to send humanitarian supplies – including more than 3,000 shelter kits and over 1,500 solar-powered lanterns to help those whose homes have been damaged and those without power.

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Jamaica victims left shell-shocked

The UK is working with the World Food Programme and Red Cross, to ensure emergency relief reaches those who need it most.

At least 25 people died in the southern Haitian coastal town of Petit-Goave after the La Digue river burst its banks as a result of the hurricane, according to the town’s mayor Jean Bertrand Subreme.

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Ukrainian troops ‘start surrendering’ in key city but Kyiv says situation ‘dynamic’

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Ukrainian troops 'start surrendering' in key city but Kyiv says situation 'dynamic'

Ukrainian soldiers encircled by Russian forces in the key eastern city of Pokrovsk have started surrendering, the defence ministry in Moscow claims.

But Ukraine‘s military has pushed back on the report by the TASS state news agency, saying the situation is “difficult and dynamic”.

Kyiv has also claimed its positions in some districts of Pokrovsk have improved despite its city being infiltrated by Russian troops.

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Ukraine is increasing its number of assault troops in the area, the 7th Rapid Response Corps said on Facebook.

And Ukrainian troops are also working to cut Moscow’s military logistics routes, it added.

The Russian defence ministry also said its forces defeated a team of Ukrainian special forces that headed to Pokrovsk in a bid to prevent Russian forces from advancing further into the city.

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‘Footage of Ukrainian troops after surrendering’

It later posted videos of two Ukrainian troops who, it claimed, had surrendered.

The footage showed the men, one dressed in fatigues and the other in a dark green jacket, sat against a wall in a dark room, as they spoke of fierce fighting and encirclement by Russian forces.

The videos’ authenticity could not be independently verified, and there was no immediate public comment from Kyiv on the Russian ministry’s claims.

Ukrainian police officers on patrol in Pokrovsk. File pic: Reuters
Image:
Ukrainian police officers on patrol in Pokrovsk. File pic: Reuters

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously acknowledged that some Russian units had infiltrated the city. But he maintained that Ukraine is tackling them.

He said Russia had deployed 170,000 troops in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk province, where Pokrovsk is located, in a major offensive to capture the city and claim a big battlefield victory.

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Multiple Russian missiles strike Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia

‘Operation to destroy enemy forces’

Ukraine’s army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Saturday the situation in Pokrovsk remained “hardest” for Ukrainian forces, who were trying to push Russian troops out.

But he insisted there was no encirclement or blockade as Moscow has claimed.

“A comprehensive operation to destroy and push out enemy forces from Pokrovsk is ongoing. The main burden lies on the shoulders of the units of the armed forces of Ukraine, particularly UAV operators and assault units,” Mr Syrskyi said.

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24 hours in the kill zone

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Why is Ukraine attacking Moscow? What’s behind Putin’s nuclear test?

Why is Pokrovsk important?

One of Moscow’s key aims has been to take all of Ukraine’s industrial heartland of coal-rich Donbas, which comprises of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Kyiv still controls about 10% of Donbas.

Capturing Pokrovsk, which Russian media has dubbed “the gateway to Donetsk”, and Kostiantynivka to its northeast, would give Moscow a platform to drive north towards the two biggest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in Donetsk – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

‘Key Russian fuel pipeline struck’

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military intelligence, known as HUR, has said its forces have hit an important fuel pipeline in the Moscow region that supplies the Russian army.

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Dramatic drone rescue in Ukraine’s kill zone

In a statement on Telegram, HUR said the operation late on Friday was a “serious blow” to Russia’s military logistics.

HUR said its forces struck the Koltsevoy pipeline, which is 250 miles long and supplies the Russian army with gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from refineries in Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod and Moscow.

The operation, which targeted infrastructure near Ramensky district, destroyed all three fuel lines, HUR said.

The pipeline was capable of transporting up to three million tonnes of jet fuel, 2.8 million tonnes of diesel and 1.6 million tonnes of gasoline annually, HUR said.

Russia ‘targets gas production site’

Also overnight, Russia launched an attack on a gas production site in Poltava, in central Ukraine.

A fire broke out, the local administration said, but no injuries were reported.

Kyiv condemns ‘nuclear terrorism’

Ukraine’s foreign ministry has condemned Russian strikes this week on substations powering some of its nuclear plants.

It accused Russia of carrying out “targeted strikes on such substations” which “bear the hallmarks of nuclear terrorism”.

Elsewhere, a civilian died and 15 more were injured on Saturday morning after Russia struck the Mykolaiv region in southern Ukraine with a ballistic Iskander missile, local official Vitaliy Kim said.

A child was among those hurt in the strike, he added.

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