Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring counteroffensive is now in its 10th week, with limited evidence of any significant breakthrough of the formidable Russian defences.
President Zelenskyy remains laser-focused on his objective of liberating all Ukrainian territory, but if Ukraine’s military fails to gain momentum in the coming weeks, what next?
In September last year, Ukrainian forces mounted a surprise counteroffensive in northeast Ukraine and liberated 4,600 square miles (12,000 sq km) of territory in a matter of days.
President Zelenskyy argued that he could repeat that initiative on a larger scale with Western support – all he needed was the weapons to do the job.
The West responded by providing an extensive list of advanced military capability, including battle tanks, missiles systems and ammunition.
However, this all took time to supply and to conduct the requisite training – time that Russia exploited to build extensive layered defensive systems.
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Ukraine started its spring offensive in early June, but despite some ferocious fighting the Russian fortifications still appear largely intact.
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3:14
Ukraine: How is the counteroffensive going?
Although casualty figures are always hard to verify, it is evident that this latest phase of the battle has proven highly attritional, and Ukraine’s offensive would expect to suffer significantly higher casualties, up to three times as many, as its enemy.
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Ammunition and weapons are being consumed at a huge rate, and there is no simple way (for either side) to replenish stocks swiftly.
And, notwithstanding the various press releases highlighting drone attacks on Moscow, Black Sea Fleet vessels, ammunition dumps and small communities liberated, these are a sideshow to the main event.
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The metrics of success for Ukraine are not shells fired, tanks destroyed, or enemy casualties achieved – these are simply the price of conflict, not the objective.
For President Zelenskyy the metric of success is simple – it is territory liberated.
Crucially, if Ukraine was able to push Russian forces back to the Crimean Peninsula, Zelenskyy has stated that this might create an opportunity for negotiation.
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2:28
Crimea: What happened on the bridge?
But, despite months of rising casualties, progress is slow – very slow.
Reports suggest that Ukraine has started to deploy its main reserve to assist the frontline fight – yet this reserve was intended to exploit any breakthrough to achieve momentum.
Behind the scenes, Western leaders are starting to review options.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg’s chief of staff suggested in a recent interview that Ukraine might need to cede territory to find a lasting peace.
Image: Ukrainian soldiers rest during military exercises in the Dnipro region
Although he later apologised, this comment likely reflected a growing concern among Western leaders that by continuing to support Ukraine they become complicit in perpetuating this brutal – yet static – conflict.
Ukraine’s determination to fight on is understandable – it is, after all, their war – but there is a developing discussion among Western leaders about the future, and what next?
The formal view appears to be that the West stands ready to support President Zelenskyy “whatever it takes”.
But weapons stockpiles are diminishing, and there are limited reserves left to continue supporting Ukraine, especially given conflicting domestic priorities.
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In hindsight, Ukraine probably could not have secured a better level of military, financial and economic support for this counteroffensive.
If that does not suffice, what will?
Notwithstanding the public show of NATO and Western unity in support of Ukraine, behind the scenes there is growing concern about how to draw this conflict to an end.
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1:06
Fierce fighting for Ukrainian village
If Ukraine’s military demonstrates that it has the potential to achieve Zelenskyy’s ambition of liberating occupied-Ukraine, it will likely galvanise Western commitment for the longer-term.
However, if Ukraine fails to gain momentum and continues to suffer huge casualties, its allies might feel obliged to explore options.
Such discussions will not be easy – Ukrainians alone understand the sacrifices, hardships and devastation that the Russian invasion has caused.
The US joined Russia to vote against a UN resolution on the Ukraine war – and abstained from voting on one it drafted after amendments proposed by European countries were added.
The 193-member assembly approved a US-drafted resolution, marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which had originally called for an end to the conflict but did not mention Moscow’s aggression.
It also made no mention of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
However, it was amended after European nations said that it should include references to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the need for a lasting peace in line with the UN Charter.
It was also amended to include references to Ukraine’s sovereignty.
The amended US-drafted resolutionwon 93 votes in favour, while 73 states abstained – including the US – and eight – including Russia – voted no.
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On the same day, the UN General Assembly approved a European-backed resolution from Ukraine which demanded Russia immediately withdraw from the country.
There were also 93 votes in favour of this resolution,while 65 abstained and 18 voted against it.
The UK, France and Germany were among the countries that voted in favour of the Ukraine-backed resolution, which called for a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine”.
The US, Russia, Belarus and North Korea were among those that opposed it.
Image: The US voted against Ukraine’s resolution. Pic: AP
The duelling proposals reflect the tensions that have emerged between the US and Ukraine after Donald Trump suddenly opened negotiations with Russia in a bid to quickly resolve the conflict.
It also underscores the strain in the US’ relationship with Europe over the Trump administration’s decision to engage with Moscow.
The outcome marks a setback for the Trump administration in the UN General Assembly, whose resolutions are not legally binding but are seen as a barometer of world opinion.
However, later in the day, the UN Security Council approved the US resolution calling for an end to war in Ukraine – but without mentioning Russia’s aggression. The resolution received 10 votes in favour, while the remaining five members – including France and the UK – abstained.
Dame Barbara Woodward, the UK’s ambassador to the United Nations, said after the UN Security Council approved the motion: “What, how and on what terms this war ends can only be decided by negotiations with Ukraine.
“No peace will be sustainable without Ukraine’s consent.
“We regret that our proposals making these points clear were not taken on board, and as such we could not support this resolution.
“But we share the ambition to find a lasting end to this war, supported by robust security arrangements that ensure Ukraine never again has to face Russia’s attack.”
It came after the results in the General Assembly had showed some diminished support for Ukraine – as more than 140 nations had voted to condemn Russia’s aggression in previous votes.
The United States had tried to pressure the Ukrainians to withdraw their resolution in favour of its proposal, according to a US official and a European diplomat.
US deputy ambassador Dorothy Shea, meanwhile, said multiple previous UN resolutions condemning Russia and demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops “have failed to stop the war,” which “has now dragged on for far too long and at far too terrible a cost to the people in Ukraine and Russia and beyond”.
“What we need is a resolution marking the commitment from all UN member states to bring a durable end to the war,” Ms Shea said.
Mr Zelenskyy responded by saying the US president was living in a Russian-made “disinformation space”.
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron is at the White House holding talks with Mr Trump to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine.
At the start of the meeting, Mr Trump told reporters Russian President Vladimir Putin will accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine as part of a potential deal to end the war in the country.
Mr Trump and Mr Macron have been meeting after the pair had earlier joined a call between G7 leaders.
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Friedrich Merz, who is set to become the new German chancellor, has vowed to “create unity” in Europe as it adjusts to the new Trump administration and Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Mr Merz’s task will be complicated by the need to form a coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats of outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz, who will remain in office for the immediate future.
He has repeatedly pledged not to work with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, despite its second-place finish but which is under observation by the country’s intelligence agency for suspected right-wing extremism.
Mr Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union, which won with 28.5% of the votes, and the Social Democrats have a combined 328 seats in the 630-seat parliament.
The 69-year-old, who put toughening Germany’s immigration laws at the forefront of the election campaign, said he hopes to complete a deal by Easter.
Experts believe this could prove to be a challenging timescale as the rivals try to find common ground over key policies.
Co-leader of the Social Democrats, Lars Klingbeil, indicated a deal with Mr Merz is not a formality.
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The path to power may not be smooth for Merz
He said: “The ball is in Friedrich Merz’s court. Only the course of any talks will show whether a government can be formed.”
With US President Donald Trump back in the White House and tensions rising over how to resolve the war in Ukraine, Mr Merz wants to unify Europe in the face of challenges from the US and Russia.
“I have no illusions at all about what is happening from America,” he told supporters.
“We are under such massive pressure… my absolute priority now is really to create unity in Europe.”
At a media conference later, he added: “There are three topics we need to talk about. Of course, external and security policy – especially following the statements coming out of Washington.
“It is clear that we as Europeans need to be able to act swiftly. We need to be able to defend ourselves. That is a topic that is a top priority in the next few weeks.”
Mr Merz said he remains “hopeful” of maintaining the transatlantic relationship, but warned if it “is destroyed, it will not only be to the detriment of Europe, it will also be to the detriment of America”.
On the other key issues, he added: “Another important topic is the immigration – that is an area where we have proposals. I suppose the Social Democrats will be prepared to talk to us about this as well.
“The third topic is the economic situation. We have to protect work in the industrial sector in Germany.”
He also earlier used social media to say “Europe stands unwaveringly by Ukraine’s side” and how “we must put Ukraine in a position of strength”.
Pope Francis’s health has shown a “slight improvement” but he remains in a critical condition, the Vatican has said.
The Pope, 88, has been at Rome’s Gemelli Hospital since 14 February and is being treated for double pneumonia and chronic bronchitis.
In a statement on Monday evening, the Vatican said: “The clinical conditions of the Holy Father, in their critical state, show a slight improvement.
“Even today there were no episodes of asthmatic respiratory crises; some laboratory tests improved.
“Monitoring of mild renal failure is not a cause for concern. Oxygen therapy continues, although with slightly reduced flow and oxygen percentage
“The doctors, considering the complexity of the clinical picture, are prudently not releasing the prognosis yet. In the morning he received the Eucharist, while in the afternoon he resumed work activity.
“In the evening he called the Parish Priest of the Parish of Gaza to express his paternal closeness. Pope Francis thanks all the people of God who have gathered in these days to pray for his health.”
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.