Ukraine war: Zelenskyy still resolute – but West wobbles as spring counteroffensive stalls | Sean Bell
Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring counteroffensive is now in its 10th week, with limited evidence of any significant breakthrough of the formidable Russian defences.
President Zelenskyy remains laser-focused on his objective of liberating all Ukrainian territory, but if Ukraine’s military fails to gain momentum in the coming weeks, what next?
In September last year, Ukrainian forces mounted a surprise counteroffensive in northeast Ukraine and liberated 4,600 square miles (12,000 sq km) of territory in a matter of days.
President Zelenskyy argued that he could repeat that initiative on a larger scale with Western support – all he needed was the weapons to do the job.
The West responded by providing an extensive list of advanced military capability, including battle tanks, missiles systems and ammunition.
Read more: Ukraine war latest
However, this all took time to supply and to conduct the requisite training – time that Russia exploited to build extensive layered defensive systems.
Ukraine started its spring offensive in early June, but despite some ferocious fighting the Russian fortifications still appear largely intact.
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Ukraine: How is the counteroffensive going?
Although casualty figures are always hard to verify, it is evident that this latest phase of the battle has proven highly attritional, and Ukraine’s offensive would expect to suffer significantly higher casualties, up to three times as many, as its enemy.
Ammunition and weapons are being consumed at a huge rate, and there is no simple way (for either side) to replenish stocks swiftly.
And, notwithstanding the various press releases highlighting drone attacks on Moscow, Black Sea Fleet vessels, ammunition dumps and small communities liberated, these are a sideshow to the main event.
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Ukraine uses drones to strike Russians
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The metrics of success for Ukraine are not shells fired, tanks destroyed, or enemy casualties achieved – these are simply the price of conflict, not the objective.
For President Zelenskyy the metric of success is simple – it is territory liberated.
Crucially, if Ukraine was able to push Russian forces back to the Crimean Peninsula, Zelenskyy has stated that this might create an opportunity for negotiation.
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Crimea: What happened on the bridge?
But, despite months of rising casualties, progress is slow – very slow.
Reports suggest that Ukraine has started to deploy its main reserve to assist the frontline fight – yet this reserve was intended to exploit any breakthrough to achieve momentum.
Behind the scenes, Western leaders are starting to review options.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg’s chief of staff suggested in a recent interview that Ukraine might need to cede territory to find a lasting peace.
Ukrainian soldiers rest during military exercises in the Dnipro region
Although he later apologised, this comment likely reflected a growing concern among Western leaders that by continuing to support Ukraine they become complicit in perpetuating this brutal – yet static – conflict.
Ukraine’s determination to fight on is understandable – it is, after all, their war – but there is a developing discussion among Western leaders about the future, and what next?
The formal view appears to be that the West stands ready to support President Zelenskyy “whatever it takes”.
But weapons stockpiles are diminishing, and there are limited reserves left to continue supporting Ukraine, especially given conflicting domestic priorities.
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In hindsight, Ukraine probably could not have secured a better level of military, financial and economic support for this counteroffensive.
If that does not suffice, what will?
Notwithstanding the public show of NATO and Western unity in support of Ukraine, behind the scenes there is growing concern about how to draw this conflict to an end.
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Fierce fighting for Ukrainian village
If Ukraine’s military demonstrates that it has the potential to achieve Zelenskyy’s ambition of liberating occupied-Ukraine, it will likely galvanise Western commitment for the longer-term.
However, if Ukraine fails to gain momentum and continues to suffer huge casualties, its allies might feel obliged to explore options.
Such discussions will not be easy – Ukrainians alone understand the sacrifices, hardships and devastation that the Russian invasion has caused.
But, what price peace?
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Read more:
What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
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Pic: AP
Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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