Apple is set to ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025, the first time it will have done so in 14 years, Counterpoint Research said in a note on Wednesday.

Apple will ship around 243 million iPhone units this year versus 235 million shipments from Samsung, Counterpoint told CNBC. Apple is likely to end up with a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market while Samsung’s share will be 18.7%.

Shipments refer to the number of devices vendors ship to retail channels and do not directly equal sales. However, they provide insights into demand and expectations of sales from smartphone makers.

Apple’s success is being driven by its iPhone 17 series launched in September, which, according to Counterpoint, had a “bumper” holiday sales season.

Sales of the iPhone 17 series in the U.S. — including the iPhone Air — during the first four weeks after launch was 12% higher than that of the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e, the research firm said. In China, a critical market for Apple, sales of the iPhone 17 series during the same period were 18% higher than its predecessor.

“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang, said in the note.

Samsung meanwhile, could face challenges in the low-to-mid tier of the smartphone market from Chinese players, which could hamper the South Korean giant’s ability to reclaim the top spot, Counterpoint said.

Apple benefited from a lower-than-expected impact from tariffs given the trade truce between the U.S. and China. This helped Apple’s broader supply chain and growth in certain regions, such as emerging markets. The tech giant also benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar and a “resilient economic outlook” that boosted consumer confidence.

“With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang said.

Meanwhile, Apple is expected to launch the entry level iPhone 17e next year as well as a foldable smartphone, Counterpoint forecast. The research firm said it expects the previously-announced improvements to Apple’s virtual assistant Siri as well as a “major iPhone design revamp” in 2027, to also underpin Apple’s dominance over the next few years.

“By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing “e” series, and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets, and to strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment, which is projected to grow faster than the overall market,” Counterpoint said.

“Given an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between devices and a substantial number of older models within Apple’s installed base due for renewal, Apple will retain the lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade.”

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Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

Shares of Nvidia and Alphabet have diverged in recent days as the latter steps into the artificial intelligence spotlight. With some market watchers wondering if the Google parent will take the lead on AI, Nvidia attempted to reassure investors of its dominance in the industry.

Here’s the rundown:

• Alphabet shares rose to all-time highs yesterday, the latest sign of trader excitement following the release of the tech giant’s upgraded Gemini 3 model last week.
• Shares of the Google parent also appeared to get a boost from a report that Meta is considering purchasing the company’s AI chips.
• Nvidia shares meanwhile closed down more than 2% yesterday.
• The AI darling defended its technology following the Meta report, saying in a social media statement that it is “a generation ahead of the industry.”
• While Nvidia said it’s a supplier for Google, the company asserted that its chips are more powerful than competitors’ products.
• Shares of Alphabet are up more than 1% in premarket trading. Nvidia shares, on the other hand, ticked down further this morning.
• Elsewhere on the AI front, Dell said yesterday that it was expecting a strong fourth quarter thanks to AI sales.

The stock market’s recovery rally continued yesterday. This time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the charge: The blue-chip index climbed more than 660 points, or 1.4%. Follow live markets updates here.

Investors appeared to be focused on the outlook for another interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December gathering. Fed funds traders are pricing in an 84% likelihood of a rate decrease, up from around 50% just a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Fed funds futures rose after Bloomberg reported that White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett — who’s seen as likely to advocate for further cuts — is a front runner to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC yesterday that there’s a “very good chance” that President Donald Trump will announce the Fed’s next leader “before Christmas.”

Ukraine is willing to move forward with the U.S.-backed framework for a peace deal that would end its yearslong war with Russia, according to several news reports.

Trump said at the White House yesterday that “we’re getting very close to a deal,” adding on social media that there were just “a few remaining points of disagreement.” He said he would meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin “when the deal to end this War is FINAL or, in its final stages.”

A Putin aide told reporters today that Russia hasn’t officially received a revised draft of the deal, which is widely considered favorable to Russia. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff is slated to travel to Moscow next week to meet with Putin.

“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry rose to fame by predicting the 2008 housing crash. Now, he has set his sights on a new topic: AI.

After deregistering his hedge fund Scion Asset Management, Burry launched a blog focused on why he thinks the AI trade is a bubble. Key to Burry’s criticism is the skepticism of Phil Clifton, a former Scion associate portfolio manager who believes that the costs of the industry’s infrastructure buildout boom haven’t been justified.

Nvidia is pushing back. CNBC’s Yun Li reported that the chipmaker quietly shared with analysts a private memo that mentioned Burry by name when rebuking his claims.

Homeowners are yanking “For Sale” signs out of their yards at an unusually high rate. Redfin reported yesterday that nearly 85,000 U.S. sellers took their homes off the market in September, marking the highest level for the month in eight years.

As CNBC’s Diana Olick reports, weak demand from buyers, falling home prices and an overall feeling of economic uncertainty might be contributing to sellers’ decisions to stay put. Redfin found that around 15% of delisted homes were at risk of selling at a loss.

Also yesterday, Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index in November fell to its lowest level since April. The group cited weak employment prospects as a driver of the decline.

Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.

Shares of artificial intelligence czar Nvidia fell 2.6% on Tuesday as signs of unrest continued rippling through its kingdom.

Over the month, Nvidia has been contending with concerns over lofty valuations and an argument from the “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry that companies may be overestimating the lifespan of Nvidia’s chips. That accounting choice inflates profits, he alleged.

The pressure intensified last week in the form of a potential challenger to the crown. Google on Nov. 18 announced the release of its new AI model Gemini 3 — so far so good, given that Nvidia isn’t in the business of designing large language models  — powered by its in-house AI chips — uh–oh.

And on Monday stateside, Meta, a potential kingmaker, appeared to signal that it is considering not just leasing Google’s custom AI chips, but also using them for its own data centers. It seemed like Nvidia felt the need to address some of those rumblings.

The chipmaker said on the social media platform X that its technology is more powerful and versatile than other types of AI chips, including the so-called ASIC chips, such as Google’s TPUs. Separately, Nvidia issued a private memo to Wall Street that disputed Burry’s allegations.

Power, whether in politics or semiconductors, requires a delicate balance.

Remaining silent may shroud those in power in a cloak of untouchability, projecting confidence in their authority — but also aloofness. Deigning to address unrest can soothe uncertainty, but also, paradoxically, signal insecurity.

For now, the crown is Nvidia’s to wear — and the weight of it is, too.

The UK Autumn Budget 2025 is here. Britain prepares for a “smorgasbord” of tax hikes to be unveiled Wednesday. Follow CNBC’s coverage of the Budget throughout the day on our live blog here. 

U.S. stocks advanced on Tuesday. Major indexes had their third straight winning session, erasing earlier intraday losses. Asia-Pacific markets rose Wednesday. Shares of Foxconn climbed more than 3% after the firm received approval for a contract amendment.

Meta is looking to use Google AI chips. That’s according to a Monday report by The Information. Nvidia on Tuesday wrote on X that its chips are “a generation ahead of the industry.” The chipmaker also sent analysts a memo on alleged bubble claims.

Taiwan President pledges $40 billion more for defense. Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s leader, on Wednesday said the self-governing island will improve its self-defense capabilities in the face of “unprecedented military buildup” by China.

[PRO] What to watch as UK budget is unveiled. Strategists told CNBC they will be monitoring the budget’s effects on interest rates, economic growth and the British pound — and one “rabbit out of the hat” from U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves.

The UK’s Autumn Budget is coming: Here’s what it could mean for your money

The run-up to this year’s U.K. Autumn Budget has been different from the norm because so many different tax proposals have been floated, flagged, leaked and retracted in the weeks and months leading up to Wednesday’s statement.

It has also made it harder to gauge what we’re actually going to get when Finance Minister Rachel Reeves finally unveils her spending and taxation plans for the year ahead.

— Holly Ellyatt