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Holding up a tiny babygrow with a flower pattern printed on it, Lucy Letby presents a wide smile for the camera in what would become the defining image of the killer nurse.

Dressed in her blue nursing uniform with her name badge pinned proudly on her chest, the young, blonde girl in her mid-20s is now the UK’s most notorious child killer.

Described as non-descript and normal by police, few could envisage the horror she would inflict on innocent families.

Lucy Letby
Image:
Lucy Letby

Born in Hereford on 4 January 1990, Letby is the only child of John and Susan Letby, a retail boss and accounts clerk who are now both retired.

After attending a local school and sixth-form college, Letby qualified as a children’s nurse at the University of Chester in 2011.

She completed training placements in Liverpool Women’s Hospital before joining the neonatal unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital on 2 January 2012, just two days before her 22nd birthday.

Her life at this point was extraordinarily normal.

More on Lucy Letby

She lived in several houses, before buying her suburban, red-brick, semi-detached home in 2016 which was around a 20-minute walk from the ward.

An ornate teal bird feeder had been put up on the wall of the porch with a simple, child-like decor throughout the house.

In her bedroom, fluffy toys were laid across a duvet inscribed with the words “sweet dreams”. Artwork saying “leave sparkles wherever you go” was pinned to the wall, illuminated by twinkling fairy lights.

Handout file photo dated 03/07/18 issued by Cheshire Constabulary/CPS of Lucy Letby's bedroom at Westbourne Road, Chester, which was shown in court. Nurse Lucy Letby, 33, has been found guilty at Manchester Crown Court of the murders of seven babies and the attempted murders of six others at the Countess of Chester Hospital.. Issue date: Friday August 18, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story COURTS Letby. Photo credit should read: Cheshire Constabulary/CPS/PA Wire ..NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Image:
Lucy Letby’s bedroom

Handout file photo dated 03/07/18 issued by Cheshire Constabulary/CPS of Lucy Letby's bedroom at Westbourne Road, Chester, which was shown in court. Nurse Lucy Letby, 33, has been found guilty at Manchester Crown Court of the murders of seven babies and the attempted murders of six others at the Countess of Chester Hospital.. Issue date: Friday August 18, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story COURTS Letby. Photo credit should read: Cheshire Constabulary/CPS/PA Wire ..NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.

Told colleagues she was bored

Letby owned two cats, Tigger and Smudge, and was close with her parents, saying in messages she felt “guilty” for not visiting them more often.

She had friends and an active social life, holidaying in Ibiza, going on nights out and attending weekly salsa dancing classes.

Letby used social media regularly to keep in contact with colleagues, friends and family and even exchanged messages with management on the neonatal ward.

At work, she was trusted and dedicated, having completed specialist training in March 2014 and regularly working in what was called nursery one – where the most ill children were cared for.

It was known as the “hot room” – an average-looking room with yellow walls alongside paintings of owls and teddy bears.

She would text colleagues when working in the lower-risk nurseries – two, three and four – that she was bored and wanted to work in nursery one – which the prosecution later said was a trigger for Letby to carry out attacks.

Follow live from court – Anger as Letby expected to skip sentencing

J124 [IB1210]. Forensics shorthand
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A corridor within the neonatal unit

‘Beige or vanilla’

It was speculated that Letby had a romantic crush on a married doctor on the ward, having exchanged hundreds of messages with him. The pair had also gone out for meals, been on a trip to London together and spent time at her home.

But while the details of her life may seem banal, the Crown Prosecution Service alleged there was a “much darker side to her personality”. A member of the prosecution team described her as “devious, calculated and cold-blooded”.

“There isn’t anything outstanding or outrageous about her. She was a normal, 20-something-year-old,” DCI Nicola Evans from Cheshire Police said.

“She had a normal job, she was average in that job, she had a group of friends and a family and a social life, nothing that you wouldn’t expect from someone of her age at that time.

“The fact she was non-descript and average in work allowed her to go under the radar and commit these offences.

“There wasn’t anything outrageous about her, there wasn’t anything that stood out about her, she was beige or vanilla. She was present but not featured.”

Previously unissued photo dated 30/06/2023 of Deputy Senior Investigating Officer, Detective Chief Inspector Nicola Evans, and Senior Investigating Officer, Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes, speak to the media during a press conference at Manchester Hall, ahead of the verdict in the case of nurse Lucy Letby, who is accused of the murder of seven babies and the attempted murder of another ten, between June 2015 and June 2016 while working on the neonatal unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital. Nurse Lucy Letby, 33, has been found guilty at Manchester Crown Court of the murders of seven babies and the attempted murders of six others at the Countess of Chester Hospital. Issue date: Friday August 18, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story COURTS Letby. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Det Chief Insp Nicola Evans (left) and senior investigating officer Det Supt Paul Hughes

The start of the attacks

Letby had worked at the Countess of Chester hospital for more than three years when the mortality rate of the neonatal unit began to rise in 2015.

Her first attack came on 8 June 2015 when Child A died less than 90 minutes into Letby’s overnight shift.

Letby used several methods to kill or severely injure the helpless victims – including physical assaults, overfeeding with milk, forcing air into their stomachs, and injecting air into their bloodstreams.

Two victims survived after Letby poisoned their IV drip bags with insulin.

Read more:
How the police caught Lucy Letby
Will she ever be released from prison?

The prosecution accused Letby of varying her methods to avoid detection.

Some babies were subjected to repeated attempts by her to kill them.

The jury heard Letby would use medicines and equipment readily available to her to cause babies to unexpectedly collapse across day and night shifts.

Her victims included both boys and girls, many of whom were born prematurely.

After she had killed the infants, Letby searched for 11 of the victims’ families on social media and even sent one set of parents a sympathy card on the day of their baby’s funeral. She took a photo of the sympathy card before she posted it.

A sympathy card that was shown to the jury in the Lucy Letby murder trial
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A sympathy card that was shown to the jury in the Lucy Letby murder trial

Letby was said to be relaxed and collected despite the rising number of deaths.

The parents of Child L and M – twin brothers who were just days old when Letby tried to kill them in April 2016 – said she was acting “very cool and calm” after she injected Child M with an injection of excessive air.

But Child M survived, after which “her body language and her behaviour totally changed”, the twins’ mother said.

“She was very annoyed with us. She thought that ‘I couldn’t kill your baby’.”

She also made unusual comments which aroused suspicion at this time.

As Child P was being readied to be moved to another hospital in June 2016 after Letby pumped excess air into his stomach, she said: “He’s not leaving here alive, is he?”

She had made a similar remark when Child C fatally collapsed a year earlier.

Exclusive: Mother fears Letby attacked her baby too

Letby was accused of committing the murders in a one-year period – between June 2015 and June 2016 – out of her five-year career.

But Cheshire Police said it is investigating whether Letby could be responsible for any further attacks before June 2015, both at Countess of Chester Hospital and Liverpool Women’s Hospital.

As part of that probe, they are reviewing the care of around 4,000 babies in the two hospitals.

‘I am evil’

On the surface, there is no rhyme or reason to Letby’s attacks, and she has offered no motive for her crimes.

She stuffed reams of confidential medical paperwork in reusable shopping bags, with some of these notes concerning the babies who had been killed or injured.

Undated handout file photo issued by Cheshire Constabulary/CPS of a Morrisons carrier bag found by police in Lucy Letby's bedroom at Westbourne Road, Chester, containing a number of hospital shift handover sheets, a blood gas reading for a child she allegedly attempted to murder ,and a paper towel containing resuscitation notes, which was shown at Manchester Crown Court during her trial. Nurse Lucy Letby, 33, has been found guilty at Manchester Crown Court of the murders of seven babies and the attempted murders of six others at the Countess of Chester Hospital.. Issue date: Friday August 18, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story COURTS Letby. Photo credit should read: Cheshire Constabulary/CPS/PA Wire ..NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
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A Morrisons carrier bag found by police in Lucy Letby’s bedroom containing a number of hospital shift handover sheets and other medical notes

22. Ibiza Bag. (Re Ex PMB.4) (AJW.323 - 0014)  [IB1151]. Forensics shorthand

Letby scribbled all kinds of messages but on some she had written: “I am evil”, “I did this” and “I don’t deserve to be here because I’m evil”.

Prosecutors said the notes illustrated a woman in turmoil, grappling with the guilt of her actions.

But Dr Sohom Das, a consultant forensic psychiatrist, said Letby doesn’t fit any “typical” killer profiles.

Forensics shorthand. confession note still [IB1151]

‘Low self-esteem and self confidence’

He says women who kill babies are usually driven by psychotic beliefs.

“I’ve seen at least two or three patients who have had delusional beliefs related to schizophrenia, for example, where they believe children are marked by the devil, that they’re somehow saving them from hell or damnation,” he told Sky News.

“Letby doesn’t fit into that category. I’ve also met serial killers and they tend to be antisocial, angry, they tend to have a long criminal history of violence. Again, Letby doesn’t fit that kind of motivation.”

Beatrice Yorker, a professor emerita of nursing and criminal justice and criminalistics at California State University in Los Angeles, said Letby also does not fit the profile of an attention-seeking killer like Angel of Death nurse Beverley Allitt.

“I haven’t read anything about Lucy Letby that indicates she wanted to be the centre of attention, that she enjoyed resuscitation of the infants. She seemed much more clandestine and deceitful. Kind of sadistic, maybe.”

Dr Das said Letby suffered from low self-esteem and self-confidence which may have manifested a degree of jealousy.

Pic: Cheshire Constabulary
Image:
Pic: Cheshire Constabulary

For forensics shorthand. i dont want to do this anymore and Die note [IB1151]

‘The most cowardly act’

In one note, Letby wrote she had an “overwhelming fear… I’ll never have children or marry… I will never know what it’s like to have a family… despair”.

Dr Jane Carter Woodrow, a screenwriter and member of the British Society of Criminology who has written several books about murderers and serial killers, said it is likely Letby may fit the profile of a psychopath.

The NHS defines a psychopath as someone with an antisocial personality disorder meaning they are manipulative, lack empathy, and often have a total disregard for the consequences of their actions.

“How could she not be [a psychopath] to be able to do those things,” she said. “It’s the most cowardly act of all killers, [to kill] a child or an elderly person.”

Read more: Inside the mind of a serial killer – the psychology behind healthcare murderers

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‘Trust me, I’m a nurse’

Dr Carter Woodrow says that “once you’ve crossed that line” and “murdered for the first time, I think it gets easier. And you see she feels emboldened as time goes on and the cases kind of escalate, particularly towards the end”.

The fact Letby pleaded not guilty also shows psychopathic traits, she says. “She could have pleaded guilty and not put the parents through this terrible trauma again. She could have spared them all these details they’ve had to sit through.”

During the trial, the jury heard how Letby told one mother, “trust me, I’m a nurse”, as she killed one baby.

“I think this was about power,” says Dr Carter Woodrow. “Saying, ‘trust me, I’m a nurse’, all the time knowing what she was going to go and do… it’s like somebody with a card up their sleeve that they’re almost laughing about.”

Suspicions increase

Colleagues became suspicious of Letby within weeks of the first attack.

Dr Stephen Brearey, the head consultant on the neonatal unit, reviewed the deaths of Child A, C and D in June 2015. He found Letby was the only nurse on shift for each of the deaths.

In October 2015, consultants became increasingly concerned when they saw a spike in deaths that were “unexplained and unexpected” – a highly unusual occurrence in neonatal wards meaning there was no prior indication in the 24 hours before that death may occur.

Consultant Dr Ravi Jayaram alerted management but was told “not to make a fuss”. He was even forced to apologise to Letby and attend mediation for accusing her of wrongdoing, news outlets reported.

Other colleagues who reported Letby were told there was no evidence against her.

Read more:
Government orders independent inquiry after Letby verdict
Inside courtroom seven: The Letby trial and the moment she was found guilty

Dr Ravi Jayaram. Pic: Rex/ITV/Shutterstock
Image:
Dr Ravi Jayaram. Pic: Rex/ITV/Shutterstock

‘A lot of suspicion’

Speculation grew as Letby would be on shift or near a child during every suspicious death.

Her reputation became so infamous that one staff member who worked at the hospital told Sky News: “There was a lot of suspicion when alarms would go off, during the night especially, there would be a phrase colleagues would use – ‘I wonder if Lucy is working tonight’.”

“That’s exactly how it was, so people knew exactly what was going on,” nursing assistant Lynsey Artell said.

Then and now, all evidence against Letby was circumstantial – there is no CCTV, no witnesses to her crimes.

But by July 2016, after several more warnings by senior consultants, Letby had been moved off the neonatal ward and put into an administrative role. An internal NHS investigation followed.

But the hospital only contacted police in early 2017, asking whether they thought an investigation was necessary – almost two years since the prosecution said Letby first attacked and well over a year after colleagues first became suspicious.

Letby caught

Letby was arrested more than three years after her killing spree started.

On that day in July 2018, she was relaxed and speaking in a calm, quiet tone after officers knocked on her door.

Lucy Letby arrest

She let them in, wearing a blue hoodie with white and pink writing, as well as blue tracksuit bottoms. Her shoulder-length mousy blonde hair was hanging down around her face.

Ten minutes later, police bodycam footage recorded Letby being escorted out of the house in handcuffs and put into a police car where she told officers she just had knee surgery.

Lucy Letby arrest
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Lucy Letby’s arrest

Lucy Letby arrest

During a police interview that same day, she remained calm. When asked if she had been concerned about a rise in mortality rates at the hospital, she said: “I think we’d all just noticed as a team in general, the nursing staff, that this was a rise compared to previous years.”

She was released after her first arrest but was rearrested in June 2019 when she was bailed pending further inquiries.

Lucy Letby is questioned by police
Image:
Letby is questioned by police

Letby was rearrested and charged in November 2020 three years after the investigation – named Operation Hummingbird – started.

Letby on trial

Letby on trial was a very different person to Letby the quiet nurse.

She was now 33 – eight years on from her first attack. She was smartly dressed, her hair now dark brown and longer than in pictures used by the media.

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The police investigation into Letby

She was seated in the glass-fronted dock – her parents were seated in the gallery opposite her in courtroom seven at Manchester Crown Court.

Her mother frequently made eye contact with her daughter and mouthed “I love you” as the gruelling trial went on.

Susan Letby, the mother of Lucy Letby arrives at Manchester Crown Court ahead of the verdict in the case of nurse Lucy Letby who is accused of the murder of seven babies and the attempted murder of another ten, between June 2015 and June 2016 while working on the neonatal unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital. Picture date: Wednesday August 9, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story COURTS Letby. Photo credit should read: Jacob King/PA Wire
Image:
Susan Letby

Spoke quietly and calmly

When Letby was called to give evidence in May, she spoke quietly and calmly and was asked repeatedly to raise her voice.

At times she was vigorous in her defence and firmly denied the charges. She pointed the finger at other colleagues and blamed general hospital failings.

But she repeatedly contradicted herself, muddled her story and became frustrated with the prosecution’s questions – a far cry from the cool and collected nature she had displayed during her killing spree.

Court artist Elizabeth Cook drawing outside Manchester Crown Court ahead of the verdict in the case of nurse Lucy Letby who is accused of the murder of seven babies and the attempted murder of another ten, between June 2015 and June 2016 while working on the neonatal unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital. Picture date: Friday August 11, 2023.
Image:
Court artist Elizabeth Cook drawing outside Manchester Crown Court

Letby cried when speaking about the impact of the arrest and trial on her, when photographs of her bedroom were shown and when speaking about her cats. But, as the prosecution pointed out, the tears stopped when the topic of the deaths arose.

Britain’s worst child serial killer

She bowed her head and cried again when the first verdicts were delivered.

Susan Letby broke down sobbing as her daughter was led away from the dock, whispering “you can’t be serious, this can’t be right”, into her husband’s arms.

During the second set of verdicts, when she was found guilty of murdering four babies and attempting to murder two more. As the jury delivered the outcome of its deliberations she was emotionless, but her shoulders began to shake as she stood to be taken back down to the cells.

Letby refused to leave the cells and appear in court for the third set of verdicts when she was found guilty of three more murders and three more attempted murders.

This time, John and Susan Letby were silent, resigned, and leaned on each other with their eyes closed.

John and Susan Letby, the parents of nurse Lucy Letby, outside Manchester Crown Court ahead of the verdict in the case of the nurse who is accused of the murder of seven babies and the attempted murder of another ten, between June 2015 and June 2016 while working on the neonatal unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital. Picture date: Friday August 11, 2023.
Image:
John and Susan Letby

The verdicts were delivered after more than 100 hours of deliberations by the jury of seven women and four men.

For her sentencing on Monday, Letby made it clear she would refuse to appear in person or via video link.

Who is Lucy Letby?

Letby has never explained her transition from a very ordinary woman to Britain’s most prolific child killer.

Lucy Letby

It is something her victims’ families will have to fathom in the coming months and years as they grapple with a public inquiry and their harrowing grief.

Deputy senior investigating officer at Cheshire Police Nicola Evans said this “must be really hard for families to accept”.

“I don’t know whether we will ever be able to answer that question [of motive], and only Lucy Letby can answer that.”

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Spring statement: Rachel Reeves can make decisions on spending cuts without too much fallout for now – but worse could be yet to come

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Spring statement: Rachel Reeves can make decisions on spending cuts without too much fallout for now - but worse could be yet to come

Rachel Reeves will keep her remarks short when she delivers the spring statement on Wednesday.

But the enormity of what she is saying will be lost on no one as the chancellor sets out the grim reality of the country’s finances.

Her economic update to the House of Commons will reveal a deteriorating economic outlook and rising borrowing costs, which has forced her to find spending cuts, which she’s left others to carry the can for (more on that in a bit).

Politics Live: Polling suggests almost everyone is pessimistic

The independent Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to forecast that growth for 2025 has halved from 2% to 1%.

That, combined with rising debt repayment costs on government borrowing, has left the chancellor with a black hole in the public finances against the forecasts published at the budget in October.

Back then, Reeves had a £9.9bn cushion against her “iron-clad” fiscal rule that day-to-day spending must be funded through tax receipts not debt by 2029-30.

More on Rachel Reeves

But that surplus has been wiped out in the ensuing six months – now she finds herself about £4bn in the red, according to those familiar with the forecasts.

That’s really uncomfortable for a chancellor who just months ago executed the biggest tax and spend budget in a generation with the promise that she would get the economy growing again.

At the first progress check, she looks to be failing and has been forced into finding spending cuts to make up the shortfall after ruling out her other two options – further tax rises or more borrowing via a loosening of her self-imposed fiscal rules.

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What to expect in the spring statement

‘World has changed’

When Reeves gets up on Wednesday, she will put it differently, saying the “world has changed” and all that means is the government must move “further and faster” to deliver the reforms that will drive growth.

But her opponents will be quick to lay economic woes at her door, arguing that the unexpected £25bn tax hike on employers’ national insurance contributions last October have choked off growth.

But it’s not just opposition from the Conservative benches that the chancellor is facing – it is opposition from within as she sets about cutting government spending to the tune of £15bn to fill that black hole.

Politically, her allies know how awkward it would have been for the chancellor to announce £5bn in welfare cuts to avoid breaking her own fiscal rules, with one acknowledging that those cuts had to be kept separate from the spring statement.

There’s also expected to be more than £5bn of extra cuts from public spending in the forecast period, which could see departments that don’t have protected budgets – education, justice, home – face real-term spending cuts by the end of the decade.

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Not an emergency budget

We won’t see the detail of that until the Spending Review in June.

This is not an emergency budget because the chancellor isn’t embarking on a round of tax raising to fix the public finances.

But these are, however they are framed, emergency spending cuts designed to plug her black hole and that is politically difficult for a government that has promised no return to austerity if some parts of the public sector face deep cuts to stick with fiscal rules.

If that’s the macro picture, what about the “everyday economics” of peoples’ lives?

I’d point out two things here. On Wednesday, we will get to see where those £5bn of welfare cuts will fall as the government publishes the impact assessment that it held back last week.

Read more:
Corbyn brands benefit cuts a ‘disgrace’
Expect different focus from Reeves at spring statement

Up to a million people could be affected by cuts, and the reality of who will be hit will pile on the pressure for Labour MPs already uncomfortable with cuts to health and disability benefits.

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Benefits cuts explained

The second point is whether the government remains on course to deliver its key pledge to “put more money in the pockets of working people” during this parliament after the Joseph Rowntree Foundation think-tank produced analysis over the weekend saying living standards for all UK families are set to fall by 2030.

The chancellor told my colleague Trevor Phillips on Sunday that she “rejects” the analysis that the average family could be £1,400 worse off by 2030.

But that doesn’t mean that the forecasts published on Wednesday calculating real household disposable income per head won’t make for grim reading as the economic outlook deteriorates.

Nervousness in Labour

Ask around the party, and there is obvious nervousness about how this might land, with a degree of anxiety about the economic outlook and what that has in store for departmental budgets.

But there is recognition too from many MPs that the government has political space afforded by that whopping majority, to make these decisions on spending cuts without too much fallout – for now.

Because while Wednesday will be bad, worse could be yet to come.

Staring down the barrel

The chancellor is staring down the barrel of a possible global trade war that will only serve to create more economic uncertainty, even if the UK is spared from the worst tariffs by President Donald Trump.

The national insurance hike is also set to kick in next month, with employers across the piece sounding the warnings around investment, jobs and growth.

Six months ago, Reeves said she wouldn’t be coming back for more after she announced £40bn in tax rises in that massive first budget.

Six months on she is coming back for more, this time in the form of spending cuts. And in six months’ time, she may well have to come back for more in the form of tax rises or deeper cuts.

The spring statement was meant to be a run-of-the-mill economic update, but it has morphed into much more.

The chancellor now has to make the hard sell from a very hard place, that could soon become even tougher still.

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UK’s fiscal position as tight as ever but expect a different focus from Rachel Reeves at the spring statement

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UK's fiscal position as tight as ever but expect a different focus from Rachel Reeves at the spring statement

Remember “securonomics”? It was the buzzword Rachel Reeves gave to her economic philosophy back before the election.

The idea was that in the late 2020s, the old ideas about the way we run the economy would or should give way to a new model.

For a long time, we ignored where something was made and by whom and just ordered it in from the cheapest source. For a long time, we ignored the security consequences of where we got our energy from. The upshot of these assumptions was that over time, we allowed our manufacturing base to become hollowed out, unable to compete with cheap imports from China. We allowed our energy system to become ever more dependent on cheap Russian gas.

Money blog: Supermarket puts buying limit on new Lindt version of viral chocolate

The whole point of securonomics was that it matters where something is made and who owns it. And not just that – that revitalising manufacturing and energy could help revitalise “left-behind” corners of the economy, places like the Midlands and the North East.

Back when she came up with the coinage, Joe Biden was in power and was pumping billions of dollars into the US economy via the Inflation Reduction Act – a scheme designed to encourage green tech investment. So securonomics looked a little like the British version of Bidenomics.

That’s the key point: the “security” part of “securonomics” was mostly about energy security and supply chain security rather than about defence.

More on Defence

But when Rachel Reeves became chancellor, it looked for a period as if securonomics was dead on arrival. Most glaringly, Labour dramatically trimmed back the ambition and scale of its green investment plans.

But roll on a year or so, and we all know what happened next.

A new era

The Democrats lost, Donald Trump won, came into office and swiftly triggered a chain reaction that panicked everyone in Europe into investing more in defence. Today, much of the focus among investors is not on net zero but on defence.

All of which is to say, securonomics might be about to resurface, but in a markedly different guise. In the spring statement, I expect the chancellor to bring back this buzzword, but this time, the emphasis will not be on green tech but on something else: the defence sector.

Expect to hear about weapons

This time around, the chancellor will say securonomics 2.0, which is to say government investment in the defence sector will also bring an economic windfall, as old naval ports like Plymouth and Portsmouth see regeneration. This time, the focus will not be on solar and wind but on submarines and weapons.

Whether this rendition of securonomics is any more successful than the last remains to be seen. For the chancellor hardly has an enormous amount of money left to invest. While this week’s event is billed as a mere forecast update, the reality, when you take a step back, is more serious.

Read more:
What do you need to know about the spring statement

The chancellor will have to acknowledge that, without remedial action, she would have broken her fiscal rules. She will have to confirm significant changes to policy to rebuild the “headroom” against these rules. These will stop short of tax rises. Instead, the spending envelope in future years will be trimmed (think 1.1% or so spending increases rather than 1.3% or 1.4%). Those welfare reforms announced last week will bring in a bit of extra cash. And thanks to an accounting quirk, the decision (announced a few weeks ago) to shift development spending into defence will also give her a bit more space against her rules.

The austerity question

But even these changes will raise further awkward questions: is this or is this not austerity? Certainly, for some departments, that spending cut will involve further significant sacrifices. Are those benefits gains really achievable, and at what cost? And, most ominously, what if the chancellor has to come back to parliament in another six months and admit she’s broken her rules all over again?

The return of securonomics might be the theme she wants to focus on in the coming months – but that, too, depends on having money to invest – and the UK’s fiscal position looks as tight as ever.

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves expected to announce further welfare cuts in spring statement

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves expected to announce further welfare cuts in spring statement

Rachel Reeves will unveil further welfare cuts in her spring statement after being told the reforms announced last week will save less than planned, Sky News understands.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has rejected the government’s assessment that the package of measures, including narrowing the eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP), will save £5bn.

Politics latest: Ex-Labour leader says Starmer ‘an enormous disappointment’

The fiscal watchdog put the value of the cuts at £3.4bn, leaving ministers scrambling to find further savings.

Ms Reeves is now expected to announce that universal credit (UC) incapacity benefits for new claimants, which were halved under the original plan, will also be frozen until 2030 rather than rising in line with inflation

As originally reported by The Times, there will also be a small reduction in the basic rate of UC in 2029, with the new measures expected to raise £500m.

A Whitehall source told Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby that it is “hard to tell how MPs will react”, as while the OBR’s assessment means fewer people will be affected by the PIP changes than thought, they “might be unhappy about the chaotic nature of it all”.

More on Spring Statement

The government did not publish an impact assessment of the crackdown on benefits it announced last week, saying that would come alongside the spring statement on Wednesday.

Several Labour MPs criticised the measures as pushing more sick and disabled people into poverty, while former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called the package a “disgrace” on Tuesday and accused the government of imposing austerity on the country.

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‘Labour MPs are upset’

Spending cuts expected

Ms Reeves is expected to announce a large package of departmental spending cuts when she gives an update on the economy on Wednesday, potentially putting her on a further collision course with her own MPs.

Having only committed to doing one proper budget each year in the autumn, the spring statement was meant to be a low-key affair.

However, a turbulent economic climate since October means the OBR is widely expected to downgrade its growth forecasts for the UK while the government has borrowed more than previously expected.

This has wiped out the £9.9bn gap in her fiscal headroom Ms Reeves left herself at her budget last year – money she needs to make up if she wants to stick to her self-imposed fiscal rule that day-to-day spending must be funded through tax receipts, not debt, by 2029-30.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves during a visit to Bury College in Greater Manchester. Picture date: Thursday March 20, 2025. Anthony Devlin/PA Wire
Image:
Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Pic: PA

The chancellor has sought to blame global factors but the Conservatives blame measures like the national insurance tax hike on employers, saying this is choking business.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride urged Ms Reeves to “use the emergency budget” to “fix her own mistakes and end Labour’s war on enterprise”.

Ms Reeves will defend her record in the spring statement, saying she is “proud” of what Labour has achieved in its first nine months in office.

However, on the eve of the statement, polling showed the public is pessimistic about what is to come.

According to More in Common, half think the cost of living crisis will never end, while YouGov found three-quarters of people want to see a tax on the richest over spending cuts.

Ms Reeves is not expected to announce any tax hikes, having said her tax-raising budget in October was a once-in-a-parliament event.

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Defence increase to ‘deliver security’

In a bid to fend off criticism, she will also announce an extra £2.2bn will be spent on defence over the next year to “deliver security for working people”.

The money is part of the government’s aim to hike defence spending to 2.5% of the UK’s economic output by 2027 – up from the 2.3% where it stands now.

Ms Reeves will insist this plan, set out by the prime minister in February, was the “right decision” against the backdrop of global instability, saying it will put “an extra 6.4bn into the defence budget by 2027”.

“This increase in investment is not just about increasing our national security but increasing our economic security, too,” she will say.

The money is coming from reductions to the international aid budget and Treasury reserves, and will be used to invest in new technology, refurbish homes for military families and upgrade HM Naval Base Portsmouth.

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