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Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.

This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.

Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.

Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.

Calculating His Base Value

No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.

To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.

The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.

Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.

Avg. Annual Value

$76m

Over the last 3 years


= 1 win = $8m

Risk & Potential for injury

Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.

Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.

Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.

In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.

The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.

Projecting Future Worth

So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.

projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years

Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth
, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.

Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.

Aging Adjustment

-$122.3m

Potential loss of value


Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.

Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?

Free Agent Comparisons

Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.

calculating the low end

By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.

By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.

Most similar free agents

$303.5m

calculating the high end

However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.

If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.

Priciest Peers

$624m



These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.

Where Could He Go?

There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.

So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year
, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.

Los Angeles Angels

2023 Payroll: $221m

Los Angeles Dodgers

2023 Payroll: $236m

San Francisco Giants

2023 Payroll: $196m

Seattle Mariners

2023 Payroll: $153m

New York Mets

2023 Payroll: $346m

Chicago Cubs

2023 Payroll: $189m

Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.

Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.

San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.

Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?

New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.

Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.

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How Mikko Rantanen impacts the Stars’ Stanley Cup hopes — in 2025 and well beyond

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How Mikko Rantanen impacts the Stars' Stanley Cup hopes -- in 2025 and well beyond

Every NHL franchise would be elated to select one player who could become a franchise defenseman, a franchise forward or a franchise goaltender in a single draft class.

The Dallas Stars found all three in 2017.

Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger have developed into franchise cornerstones, which has played a significant role in the Stars becoming a perennial Stanley Cup challenger.

This is why Stars general manager Jim Nill and his front office staff have typically been averse to trading away from draft picks.

That’s also what made Nill’s decision at the trade deadline so jarring: The Stars traded a pair of first-round picks, three second-round picks and onetime prized prospect Logan Stankoven for Mikko Rantanen.

While the Stars made a statement by adding another franchise winger, the trade also signaled that the Stars are entering a new frontier — deviating from the blueprint that allowed them to be a championship contender in the first place.

“It’s two things: It’s where our team’s at, and it’s Mikko Rantanen,” Nill said. “A lot of times when you go into a trade, it’s for an older player that has two or three years left in his career.

“Mikko is in the prime of his career. He’s one of the elite power forwards in the game, and with where we’re drafting, when do you get a chance to get a player like that? Just because of unique circumstances, he was available.”

After trading for Rantanen, the Stars signed him to an eight-year contract extension worth $12 million annually. That commitment further amplifies how the Stars believe Rantanen can help them win the Stanley Cup that has eluded them since 1999.

But how did the proverbial stars align for Dallas to get Rantanen? What made the Stars comfortable moving away from the foundational strategy of draft-and-develop? And after the current playoff run, what does Rantanen’s presence mean in the short and long term?

“Of course, [trading for Rantanen] sends a message that they’re backing us with the chance that we have to do something special,” Stars defenseman Esa Lindell said. “It’s a chance to win, and that brings expectations to succeed.”


RANTANEN PLAYED FOR the division rival Colorado Avalanche throughout his career, which meant that Nill and others within the Stars’ front office had a close view of his ascent to stardom. They thought he was one of the best players in the NHL but never thought it was possible that he could be a Dallas Star.

“You’re not even looking in [Rantanen’s] direction when you’re analyzing your team and trying to make changes,” Nill said. “It was never really even an option for us.”

Until it did become an option — and even then, the Stars weren’t so sure.

When Rantanen was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes on Jan. 24, the Stars’ front office still didn’t regard him as potentially available to them because the Canes were also in a championship window.

Rantanen scored six points in 13 games for the Hurricanes. But with each week that passed without him signing a contract extension with Carolina, the speculation increased that the Hurricanes could move him again in order to avoid losing him for nothing in free agency in the summer.

“I would say about two weeks before the trade deadline, they started to make some calls just to see what the market was,” Nill said. “We were one of the teams they called to see if there was interest, and then with about a week to 10 days before the trade deadline, we said, ‘You know what? Let’s look at it,’ but still not thinking that was the direction we were going to go.”

Pragmatism remains the principle that guides Nill.

Even before the Stars could devise a trade package, they needed a number of factors to work in their favor. For instance, if Rantanen had become available last season, there was no way they could have made it work financially because of their cap situation.

This season, injuries to Tyler Seguin and Heiskanen meant the pair’s combined $18.3 million cap hit provided wiggle room. That flexibility is how the Stars were able to take on the full freight of Cody Ceci‘s and Mikael Granlund‘s contracts in a trade with the San Jose Sharks on Feb. 1.

Yet the Stars needed more help fitting Rantanen’s contract onto their books, which made the first trade with the Avs and Canes even more crucial. Rantanen, who earns $9.25 million annually, had 50% of his salary retained by the Chicago Blackhawks in that first trade, which meant he’d be joining the Stars at a team-friendly $4.625 million prorated for the rest of the season.

“A lot of factors came into play where we’re sitting there saying, ‘A year ago, we couldn’t do that because he makes this much money and we didn’t have injuries,'” Nill said. “But now that there was a different scenario? An opportunity was there to make it work, and that’s when we got more serious.”

The Stars already had a dynamic that worked, with the bulk of their core group being younger than 26. They had a seemingly annual tradition of introducing a homegrown prospect who went from promising talent to NHL contributor. It was proof their farm-to-table model worked, while also ensuring a level of cap certainty.

So what made Nill and the Stars feel like this was the time to upend that approach? Especially with some of those homegrown prospects, such as Thomas Harley and Wyatt Johnston, going from their team-friendly, entry-level deals to being significant earners on their second contracts?

“You’re not only looking at this year, but when you’re making a major commitment to a player like that trade-wise and asset-wise, you’re probably going to want to sign him,” Nill said. “That’s when we had to sit down and look at what direction we could go with our team here. We got some major players taking some pay hikes that they deserve, and that’s when we asked, ‘How can we make this fit?'”

play

1:09

‘It’s nuts!’ Stars acquire Mikko Rantanen from Hurricanes

The “TradeCentre” crew gives their instant reaction to the shocking news that Mikko Rantanen has been traded to the Dallas Stars.


CHAMPIONSHIP WINDOWS DON’T last long, and there’s always change.

Just ask Robertson. Even though he’s only 25 years old, he’s an example of how much change the Stars have encountered since their streak of three conference finals in five years started in 2020.

Robertson played three regular-season games the 2019-20 season and was a taxi-squad member who never appeared in the playoffs. But technically, he’s one of only seven players on the current roster who played at least one game from that season. It’s a group that also includes Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz, Seguin, Heiskanen, Lindell and Harley. Oettinger was also a taxi-squad player but never appeared in any games in the 2020 playoff bubble.

“That next year, we didn’t make the playoffs and we kind of made a shift onto new players,” Robertson said. “It was my second year, and we were just trying to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. My third year, [head coach] Pete [DeBoer] comes in with a new staff and a lot of new players too. I don’t know what our expectations were, but we just wanted to make the playoffs.”

Nill said what allowed the Stars to transition from the Benn-Seguin era to where they are now was a farm system that provided key players on team-friendly contracts.

As those players have turned into veteran regulars, the Stars must now get creative with the cap and balance the difficult decisions that lie ahead.

While that’s a consideration every perennial title challenger faces at some point, Rantanen’s arrival accelerated that timeline for Dallas. Before the trade, the Stars were slated to enter the upcoming offseason with more than $17 million in cap space. It was more than enough to re-sign pending UFAs such as Benn and Matt Duchene, while having the space to add elsewhere in free agency, too.

And that was with Oettinger going from $4 million this season to $8.25 million over the next three years while Johnston, who was a pending restricted free agent, also signed a three-year deal carrying an annual $8.4 million cap hit.

The addition of Rantanen’s contract means the Stars will have $5.32 million in cap space, per PuckPedia. That has raised the possibility that Benn, Duchene and Evgenii Dadonov (along with Ceci and Granlund) might not be back, and that the Stars could be limited in free agency.

There’s another way to look at the Stars’ short- and long-term situation. Benn noted the fact that they are in this position lets players know that the front office believes in them so much that it was worth changing its philosophy to get Rantanen and have him in Dallas for the better part of a decade.

“I think it shows confidence in the group that we have and what we’ve been doing this year,” Benn said. “Our draft picks over the last few years have set us up to succeed. When you make a move like that for a player like Mikko, it gives your group a lot of confidence. Now it’s on us as players to take advantage of it.”

So what does that mean for Benn, who is in the final year of his contract, knowing the Stars’ cap situation ahead of next season?

“I don’t see myself playing for anybody else other than this team,” said Benn, who has played his entire 16-year career with the Stars. “Hopefully, it’ll all get figured out this summer, but I am excited for the future of the Stars.”

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Ranking the top 50 players in the Stanley Cup playoffs: Where do Hellebuyck, MacKinnon, Kucherov land?

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Ranking the top 50 players in the Stanley Cup playoffs: Where do Hellebuyck, MacKinnon, Kucherov land?

As the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs began, a number of storylines dominated the conversation: Can Connor Hellebuyck turn his historic regular season into a Dominik Hašek-esque postseason run for the ages for the Winnipeg Jets? Will the Colorado AvalancheDallas Stars showdown be a quasi-Cup Final right away in Round 1? Is it finally the year for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to win it all, after the Edmonton Oilers came so close last season?

But beyond the matchups and narratives, it’s also a good time to take stock of which players bring the most value into the postseason.

That’s where goals above replacement (GAR) comes in — my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats like Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold and Hockey-Reference’s point shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player’s total impact — in offense, defense or goaltending — above what a generic “replacement-level” player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league’s value is better balanced by position: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders.

To then assess who might be most valuable on the eve of this year’s playoffs, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James’ concept of an “established level” of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player’s GAR over the past three regular seasons, with more emphasis on 2024-25. And to keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: no player’s established level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season’s GAR.

The result is a blend of peak, recent, and sustained performance — the players on playoff-bound teams who have been great, are currently great or are still trending upward — in a format that gives us a sense of who could define this year’s postseason.

One final note: Injured players who were expected to miss all or substantial parts of the playoffs were excluded from the ranking. Sorry, Jack Hughes.

With that in mind, here are the top 50 skaters and goaltenders on teams in the 2025 playoff field, according to their three-year established level of value, ranked by the numbers:

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Previewing Monday’s four-game slate

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Previewing Monday's four-game slate

Five series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and two more will begin Monday. Meanwhile, the two matchups in the Central Division are on to Game 2.

Here’s the four-pack of games on the calendar:

What are the key storylines heading into Monday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?

Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down last night, and the Three Stars of Sunday Night from Arda Öcal.

Matchup notes

Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Game 1 | 7 p.m., ESPN

You might’ve heard about the 2010 playoff matchup between these two teams a time or so in the past week.

In that postseason, the overwhelming favorite (and No. 1 seed) Capitals, led by Alex Ovechkin, were upset by the No. 8 seed Canadiens, due in large part to an epic performance in goal from Jaroslav Halak. Halak isn’t walking out of the tunnel for the Habs this time around (we assume); instead it’ll be Becancour, Quebec, native Sam Montembeault, who allowed four goals on 35 shots in his one start against the Caps this season.

Washington’s goaltender for Game 1 has yet to be revealed, as Logan Thompson was injured back on April 2. But there’s no question that there is a disparity between the offensive output of the two clubs, as the Caps finished second in the NHL in goals per game (3.49), while the Canadiens finished 17th (2.96). Can Montreal keep up in this series?

St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
Game 2 | 7:30 p.m., ESPN2

The Blues hung with the Jets for much of Game 1 and even looked like the stronger team at certain times, so pulling off the series upset remains on the table. But getting a win on the unfriendly ice at the Canada Life Centre would be of some benefit in shifting momentum before the series moves to St. Louis for Game 3. The Blues proved that Connor Hellebuyck is not invincible in Game 1, and they were led by stars Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, who both got on the board.

The Jets have a mixed history after winning Game 1 of a playoff series, having gone 3-3 as a franchise (including the Atlanta Thrashers days) on such occasions. Like the Blues, the Jets were led by their stars, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, but the game-tying goal came from Alex Iafallo, who has played up and down the lineup this season.

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Game 2 | 9:30 p.m., ESPN

The Stars might like a redo on Game 1 after the visiting Avalanche essentially controlled the festivities for much of the contest. Stars forward Jason Robertson missed Game 1 because of an injury sustained in the final game of the regular season, and his return sooner than later would be excellent for Dallas; he scored three goals in three games against Colorado in the regular season. Also of note, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time.

Slowing down the Avs’ stars will be critical in Game 2, which is a sound — if perhaps unrealistic — strategy. With his two goals in Game 1, Nathan MacKinnon became the third player in Avalanche/Nordiques history to score 50 playoff goals, joining Joe Sakic (84) and Peter Forsberg (58). In reaching 60 assists in his 73rd playoff game, Cale Makar became the third-fastest defenseman in NHL history to reach that milestone, behind Bobby Orr (69 GP) and Al MacInnis (71 GP).

Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Game 1 | 10 p.m., ESPN2

This is the fourth straight postseason in which the Oilers and Kings have met in Round 1, and Edmonton has won the previous three series. Will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings?

L.A. went 3-1-0 against Edmonton this season, including shutouts on April 5 and 14. Quinton Byfield was particularly strong in those games, with three goals and an assist. Overall, the Kings were led in scoring this season by Adrian Kempe, with 35 goals and 38 assists. Warren Foegele — who played 22 playoff games for the Oilers in 2024 — had a career-high 24 goals this season.

The Oilers enter the 2025 postseason with 41 playoff series wins, which is the second most among non-Original Six teams (behind the Flyers, with 44). They have been eliminated by the team that won the Stanley Cup in each of the past three postseasons (Panthers 2024, Golden Knights 2023, Avalanche 2022). Edmonton continues to be led by Leon Draisaitl — who won his first Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer this season — and Connor McDavid, who won the goal-scoring title in 2022-23 and the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the playoffs last year, even though the Oilers didn’t win the Cup.


Arda’s Three Stars of Sunday

For the last several seasons, much of the postseason narrative for the Leafs has been the lack of production from the Core Four. So this was a dream Game 1 against Ottawa for Marner (one goal, two assists), Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Matthews (two assists) in Toronto’s 6-2 win over Ottawa.

Stankoven’s two goals in the second period put the game out of reach, with the Canes winning 4-1 in Game 1. Stankoven is the second player in Hurricanes/Whalers history to score twice in his first playoff game with the club (the other was Andrei Svechnikov in Game 1 of the first round in 2019)

Howden had two third-period goals in the Golden Knights’ victory over the Wild in Game 1, including a buzzer-beating empty-netter to make the final score 4-2.


Sunday’s results

Hurricanes 4, Devils 1
Carolina leads 1-0

The Hurricanes came out inspired thanks in part to the raucous home crowd and took a quick lead off the stick of Jalen Chatfield at 2:24 of the first period. Logan Stankoven — who came over in the Mikko Rantanen trade — scored a pair in the second period, and the Canes never looked back. On the Devils’ side, injuries forced Brenden Dillon and Cody Glass out of the game, while Luke Hughes left in the third period but was able to return. Full recap.

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0:44

Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead

Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.

Maple Leafs 6, Senators 2
Toronto leads 1-0

The first skirmish in the Battle of Ontario goes to the home side, as the Leafs never let the Senators get very close in this one. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Mitch Marner scored in the first, John Tavares and William Nylander tallied in the second, while Morgan Rielly and Matthew Knies put the game away in the third. Drake Batherson and Ridly Greig — scorer of a controversial empty-net goal against Toronto in 2024 — scored for Ottawa. Full recap.

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0:42

William Nylander zips home a goal to pad the Maple Leafs’ lead

William Nylander zips the puck past the goalie to give the Maple Leafs a 4-1 lead.

Golden Knights 4, Wild 2
Vegas leads 1-0

In Sunday’s nightcap, the two teams played an evenly matched first two periods, as Vegas carried a 2-1 lead into the third. Then, Brett Howden worked his magic, scoring a goal to pad the Knights’ lead 2:28 into that frame, and putting the game to bed with an empty-netter that beat the buzzer. The Wild were led by Matt Boldy, who had two goals, both assisted by Kirill Kaprizov. Full recap.

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0:31

Brett Howden buries Wild in Game 1 with buzzer-beating goal

Brett Howden sends the Minnesota Wild packing in Game 1 with an empty-net goal for the Golden Knights in the final second.

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