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Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.

This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.

Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.

Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.

Calculating His Base Value

No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.

To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.

The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.

Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.

Avg. Annual Value

$76m

Over the last 3 years


= 1 win = $8m

Risk & Potential for injury

Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.

Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.

Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.

In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.

The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.

Projecting Future Worth

So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.

projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years

Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth
, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.

Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.

Aging Adjustment

-$122.3m

Potential loss of value


Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.

Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?

Free Agent Comparisons

Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.

calculating the low end

By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.

By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.

Most similar free agents

$303.5m

calculating the high end

However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.

If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.

Priciest Peers

$624m



These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.

Where Could He Go?

There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.

So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year
, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.

Los Angeles Angels

2023 Payroll: $221m

Los Angeles Dodgers

2023 Payroll: $236m

San Francisco Giants

2023 Payroll: $196m

Seattle Mariners

2023 Payroll: $153m

New York Mets

2023 Payroll: $346m

Chicago Cubs

2023 Payroll: $189m

Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.

Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.

San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.

Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?

New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.

Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.

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Betts revels in walk-off HR after emotional week

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Betts revels in walk-off HR after emotional week

LOS ANGELES — Mookie Betts watched his drive sail over Dodger Stadium’s left-field fence late Friday night, and the emotions spilled out of him as if he had delivered a walk-off in October, not March. An emphatic raised finger was followed by a forceful fist bump, then an emphatic toss of his helmet and a deafening roar as he pranced toward his teammates at home plate.

Betts hadn’t just sent the Los Angeles Dodgers to an 8-5, come-from-behind victory over the Detroit Tigers on the same day their World Series rings were distributed. He hadn’t just given the Dodgers their first 4-0 start to a season since 1981. He had done so in the wake of a debilitating illness that caused him to shed almost 20 pounds and often made him wonder if he could muster the energy to provide moments like this.

“That was super special,” Betts said. “I know it sounds super selfish, but more for me. I was really proud of myself for coming in and playing underweight. Not that it’s a big deal playing underweight, but just the fight that I’ve kind of been through — the ups and downs, and the nights I’m just crying because I’m sick, and my wife’s there holding me. That’s where the emotion comes from.”

As the Dodgers prepared to fly to Japan and begin their season last week, Betts, who had spent the past four months pouring himself into the arduous task of becoming an everyday shortstop, struggled to keep food down.

He didn’t play in either of the team’s first two regular-season games against the Chicago Cubs from Tokyo Dome and was instead sent home early. He was supposed to play in the Dodgers’ exhibition opener against the Los Angeles Angels the ensuing Sunday, but he was a late scratch. Vomiting persisted. By that point, Betts’ weight had dropped from 175 pounds to 157.

But a day later, Betts started to turn a corner. He played five-and-a-half innings in the Dodgers’ exhibition finale Tuesday, then faced live pitching during the off day Wednesday. By the time the home opener came around roughly 24 hours later, Betts was back to feeling like his normal self. And on Friday, he made his presence felt.

With one out in the sixth, Betts recorded just the second hit off former Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty, then came around to score on Freddie Freeman‘s tying two-run homer. In the bottom of the eighth, he hit what would have been the game-winning home run had the Tigers not come back to tie the score in the top of the ninth.

In the 10th, Betts capped a five-run inning by coming up with runners on second and third and the score tied, working the count full against Beau Brieske, then turning on a low changeup and sending it 376 feet.

“Just given what he’s been under the last couple weeks, and still to go out there and be ready, and not be 100 percent, and still give us everything he has, coming up huge — I can’t say enough about Mookie,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said.

Betts is just the second player to hit multiple go-ahead homers in the eighth inning or later since the franchise moved to L.A. 67 years ago, according to ESPN Research. The other was Andre Ethier, who did the same on Aug. 2, 2015 — at about four inches taller and roughly 50 pounds heavier.

“I didn’t lose much strength, relative for my weight,” said Betts, who has since regained eight pounds but would still like to add another eight more. “I’m still pretty strong. But obviously as you add on more weight you can add on more strength. Right now I’m just having fun hitting 160-pound homers.”

Betts’ homer capped an epic two-day stretch for a Dodgers team that opened its season more than 5,000 miles away and is still coming off the high of its first full-season championship since 1988.

On Thursday, iconic rapper Ice Cube drove a Dodger Blue Chevy Bel-Air along Dodger Stadium’s foul territory with the World Series trophy strapped to the passenger seat, then brought it onto the field with the team lined up along the third-base line. On Friday, each of the Dodgers’ coaches and players walked onto a makeshift stage by the pitcher’s mound to receive gaudy championship rings decorated with 343 diamonds and 129 sapphires.

Amid all the pomp and circumstance, the 2025 Dodgers, seen as one of the most talented teams ever assembled, continued to win. They breezed past the Cubs in Japan without Betts and Freeman, then came back to the United States and snuck past the Tigers thanks in large part to a pitching staff that stranded 11 baserunners. On Friday, they fell behind twice and kept coming back.

“It kind of feels like we’re just picking up where we left off last year,” Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy said. “There’s still a whole lot of fight on this team. There’s no give up.”

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Dodgers show off ring bling, keep title party going

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Dodgers show off ring bling, keep title party going

LOS ANGELES — Shohei Ohtani and Clayton Kershaw joined their Los Angeles Dodgers teammates in sticking their fists out to show off their glittering World Series rings in a ceremony Friday night.

“There’s just a lot of excitement, probably more than I can ever recall with the Dodger fan base and our players,” manager Dave Roberts said before Los Angeles hosted the Detroit Tigers.

A choir in the left field pavilion sang “We Are the Champions” to open the ceremony hosted by actor Anthony Anderson.

“Nobody was like us last year and I have a feeling that nobody will be like us this year,” said Anderson, a Dodgers fan.

Ohtani, World Series MVP Freddie Freeman and Roberts received some of the loudest cheers walking a blue carpet to a circular stage between home plate and the mound.

Ohtani waved to the fans. When it was Freeman’s turn, they chanted “Freddie! Freddie!”

The stars were greeted with hugs from owner Mark Walter, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, president and CEO Stan Kasten and general manager Brandon Gomes, who presented the coaching staff and players with blue boxes.

An injured Kershaw didn’t pitch in the postseason last year, which culminated in the Dodgers’ five-game victory over the rival New York Yankees in the World Series. Ohtani’s Japanese countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto and catcher Austin Barnes were busy warming up in the bullpen and had a clubhouse manager accept their rings.

The Dodgers unveiled their World Series championship flag in center field and a championship emblem on the right-field suite level before a 5-4 win over the Tigers in Thursday’s home opener.

“This is the final piece,” Roberts said. “Just to kind of have the fans here to kind of enjoy this with us and close the book on 2024.”

Roberts had not seen the ring ahead of time.

“It’s a symbol for me,” he said, adding that he doesn’t wear rings other than a wedding band.

Roberts said he keeps his World Series rings from 2004 (as a player with Boston) and 2020 (as manager with the Dodgers) in a home safe.

The handcrafted rings by Jostens contain 14-karat yellow gold, diamonds and genuine sapphires.

Inside the box’s lid, a video plays highlights of the World Series. Using a specialized hinge mechanism, the top of the ring opens to reveal Dodger Stadium displayed in detail and features the Commissioner’s Trophy with one diamond to mark the victory. Eight diamonds represent each of the team’s World Series titles and the years 1883 and 2024 mark the franchise’s 142 seasons.

The left side of the ring top interior includes a piece from the bases used in the World Series. Encircling the base are 34 sapphires honoring the Dodgers pitcher Fernando Valenzuela, who died days before the World Series began.

In a personal touch, players’ signatures are on the interior palm of the ring.

Former Dodger Jack Flaherty started for the Tigers on Friday night, so he’ll receive his ring Saturday.

“We can go beat him up today and give him the ring tomorrow,” Roberts joked.

Flaherty, a native of nearby Burbank, California, started Game 1 of the National League Championship Series and Game 1 of the World Series, both at Dodger Stadium, where he attended games as a kid. He joined the Dodgers at last year’s trade deadline and provided stability to a starting rotation rocked by injuries.

“He was the right person at the right time for our club,” Roberts said. “He delivered.”

Utilityman Kiké Hernández got out of his sick bed to participate in the ceremony after missing the home opener a day earlier.

“He’s feeling much better,” Roberts said.

The team gathered behind the mound waiting for everyone to cross the stage and then posed for photos, smiling and admiring the bling on their fingers. A brass band broke into “Not Like Us.”

“I hope it fits,” Roberts said. “If it ends up on my pinkie, we’ll be in trouble.”

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Soto shows Mets ‘amazing’ ability with first HR

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Soto shows Mets 'amazing' ability with first HR

HOUSTON — It didn’t take long for Juan Soto to launch his first home run in a New York Mets uniform.

The star right fielder, playing in his second game with his new club, blasted a solo shot in the third inning against the Houston Astros in his sixth plate appearance of the season en route to a 3-1 win for the Mets at Daikin Park on Friday night.

“It’s always great to have the first one,” Soto said. “A lot of guys want to get the first one out of the way early and try to get that pressure off. So, I feel like it feels pretty good.”

Did he feel pressure before getting on the board in 2025?

“No,” Soto said.

The home run off Hunter Brown, one of the sport’s most talented young pitchers, was another example of Soto’s otherworldly ability to hit baseballs, one that stems from an extraordinary blend of patience, power and IQ — and convinced the Mets to give him a 15-year, $765 million contract this offseason.

The pitch from Brown was a 96 mph cutter up and in, and out of the strike zone. It was a two-strike offering meant to put away a hitter. It was a pitch that a small fraction of players, even at the highest level, can barrel. Soto, it turns out, resides in that small fraction.

Soto recognized the pitch and squared it up with a convicted swing. The ball traveled 390 feet at 107.3 mph over the right-field wall, ricocheting off the second deck’s facade and back onto the field, to give New York a 3-0 lead.

“Pretty incredible,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “Not easy to do. We’re talking about a pitch that’s out of the strike zone. Up and in. I think it’s a cutter, 96 [mph], and he’s able to hit it on a line like that. Amazing.”

After the game, Soto explained that he was looking for a pitch in that area, up and in, gleaning from information he gathered in the first three innings. He said teammates Jesse Winker and Brett Baty, also left-handed hitters, told him Brown felt comfortable throwing cutters up and in.

“So I was aware of that pitch, definitely,” said Soto, who finished 1-for-3 with a walk. “You’re hunting for something in the strike zone. He’s a guy who has a lot of ride [with his pitches]. But always aware of that pitch.”

Soto, who has been booed before each of his nine plate appearances in this series, had struck out in his previous two at-bats going back to the Mets’ season-opening loss Thursday when he went down swinging as the game-tying run for the final out against All-Star closer Josh Hader.

He exacted some revenge Friday with his first home run in orange and blue after clubbing a career-high 41 in his lone season with the New York Yankees in 2024.

“It’s Juan Soto,” Mendoza said. “He’s going to come through more times than not. What you want is to give him and the guys a chance to win a baseball game. We did that yesterday and didn’t get the W. Today, he came in and did what he did. He’s a special player.”

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