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Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.

This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.

Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.

Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.

Calculating His Base Value

No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.

To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.

The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.

Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.

Avg. Annual Value

$76m

Over the last 3 years


= 1 win = $8m

Risk & Potential for injury

Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.

Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.

Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.

In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.

The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.

Projecting Future Worth

So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.

projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years

Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth
, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.

Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.

Aging Adjustment

-$122.3m

Potential loss of value


Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.

Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?

Free Agent Comparisons

Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.

calculating the low end

By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.

By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.

Most similar free agents

$303.5m

calculating the high end

However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.

If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.

Priciest Peers

$624m



These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.

Where Could He Go?

There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.

So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year
, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.

Los Angeles Angels

2023 Payroll: $221m

Los Angeles Dodgers

2023 Payroll: $236m

San Francisco Giants

2023 Payroll: $196m

Seattle Mariners

2023 Payroll: $153m

New York Mets

2023 Payroll: $346m

Chicago Cubs

2023 Payroll: $189m

Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.

Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.

San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.

Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?

New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.

Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.

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The lesson of Pete Rose and ‘Shoeless’ Joe? History is messy.

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The lesson of Pete Rose and 'Shoeless' Joe? History is messy.

Now that Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred has removed Pete Rose, “Shoeless” Joe Jackson and other deceased players from the game’s “permanently ineligible list,” whatever former stars deemed deserving based on their on-field accomplishments should, at first opportunity, be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

In a bombshell, if long overdue, reversal of policy, first reported by ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr. on Tuesday, Manfred removed bans for Rose (who bet on games while managing the Cincinnati Reds) and members of the 1919 Chicago White Sox (who fixed the World Series), among others.

After all, banishment was meaningless once they all had died — a life sentence, if you will, for whatever their transgression. Most died decades ago and were on the list for gambling-related offenses.

“Obviously, a person no longer with us cannot represent a threat to the integrity of the game,” Manfred wrote in a letter to the attorney who petitioned for Rose.

The only remaining purpose of the ban was to keep them from the immortality of being inducted into Cooperstown, which bills itself officially as the “National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.”

The last word is the most important.

Museums exist to tell about history, and history is always messy — including in sports. They shouldn’t be solely designed for the sanitized, establishment-approved version of events, or allow outside considerations to overshadow actual accomplishments. They certainly shouldn’t serve as part of some carrot-and-stick approach to desired behavior.

Should Rose and the others have done what they did? Of course not. Should they have been subject to any potential criminal or civil recourse for their actions? Absolutely. Was MLB within its rights to suspend or punish them in other ways? Definitely.

Rose, for example, should never have been allowed to work in baseball again after it was determined he bet on the Reds to win games while he was the manager.

But that doesn’t mean his record 4,256 hits, his three World Series titles, his MVP award (1973), his 17 All-Star appearances (including when he barreled over catcher Ray Fosse in the 1970 game), his “Charlie Hustle” nickname, or that epic head-first slide — shown so many times on “This Week in Baseball” that a generation of kids either crushed their chests or chipped their teeth trying to emulate it — didn’t occur.

So did his gambling scandal, a 1990 guilty plea for filing false tax returns that cost him five months in a federal prison and a 2017 sworn statement from a woman that he had committed statutory rape back in the 1970s, an allegation for which he was never criminally charged. Throughout his life, he could be indefensibly crude, difficult and confrontational.

It’s all part of the story of Pete Rose.

So let him in, then tell the good, the bad and the ugly so the public can decide what to think. This is the Baseball Hall of Fame, not the pearly gates. It’s about a nice day in central New York State with your family, complete with a gift shop.

If the museum is there to tell the history of the sport, well, how do you do it without Pete Rose? If Hall of Fame induction is reserved for the greatest players, then how could Rose not be among them? His foolishness as a manager shouldn’t have eclipsed his impact as a player.

This is where baseball’s policy was always wrong. It used the prospect of barred entry to the Hall as a deterrence. That isn’t what a museum should be about. The risk of criminal charges, lost wages from suspension and general shame should be enough. If it isn’t, so be it.

Manfred isn’t ready to release those still living from the ineligible list. He’s clinging to the concept of scaring current players straight. “It is hard to conceive of a penalty that has more deterrent effect than one that lasts a lifetime with no reprieve,” he wrote in the letter.

Perhaps, but should that be the point?

The Hall is already filled with assorted louts, drunks and racists who just happened to be able to either hit or throw a baseball really well. So what? Their personal disgrace is part of their history.

In fairness, their personal failings didn’t affect baseball the way Rose might have as a managerial gambler, and certainly not as the Black Sox did back in the day.

Still, there are owners and commissioners in the Hall who worked for decades to stop baseball from racial integration. That’s a far more widespread impact on the integrity of the game than betting on your team to beat the Dodgers.

Yes, sports wagering is always a concern and was once a major taboo. But public opinion and business realities changed. There are sportsbooks inside MLB stadiums these days, including, for a stretch, with Rose’s old team in Cincinnati.

History is history. The game is the game. The museum is the museum. Tell the story, the whole story, with all the best players and best teams and best tales, no matter how colorful, criminal or regrettable.

America can handle it. Our real national pastime is scandal, after all.

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Granlund nets 3 for Stars, but ‘job is not done’

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Granlund nets 3 for Stars, but 'job is not done'

The Dallas Stars3-1 win in Game 4 against the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday night was a contrast in offensive efficiency. The Jets converted just once on 72 shot attempts. Dallas center Mikael Granlund, meanwhile, needed only three shot attempts in the game to score three goals. His hat trick was all the offense the Stars needed to take a commanding 3-1 series lead, moving one win away from their third straight trip to the Western Conference finals.

“Obviously, the job is not done. We’ve got a lot of work to do. [But] that was a good win,” Granlund said.

It was the first career hat trick for Granlund, a 13-year veteran whom the Stars acquired from the San Jose Sharks in a trade back in February. Three goals on three shots, all of them sailing past Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck, who remained winless on the road in the 2025 postseason.

Granlund’s first goal came at 8:36 on the power play, as he skated in on three Jets defensemen and fired a snap shot past Hellebuyck from the top of the slot.

“I was just shooting it somewhere and it went in,” Granlund said.

“I got a clean enough look. It was just a damn perfect shot, just above my pad and below my glove,” Hellebuyck lamented.

“Obviously, he probably wants the first one back, the wrister,” Jets coach Scott Arniel said of Hellebuyck. “At the end of the day, we’ve got to get him some run support. Get him a lead.”

Granlund’s second shot and second goal came on a play started by Mikko Rantanen, whose league-leading point total now stands at 19 for the playoffs. His outlet pass found Granlund in the neutral zone, sparking a 2-on-1 with Roope Hintz. Granlund kept the puck and roofed it to give Dallas a 2-1 lead after Nik Ehlers had tied the game for Winnipeg earlier in the second period.

“When you pass all the time, you can surprise the goalie sometimes when you shoot the puck. It’s good to shoot once in a while,” said Granlund, who had twice as many assists (44) as goals (22) in the regular season.

Granlund’s third and final shot attempt of the game was on another Dallas power play in the third period, following a double-minor penalty to defenseman Haydn Fleury for high-sticking Hintz.

Defenseman Miro Heiskanen, in the lineup for the first time since Jan. 28 after missing the last 32 regular-season games and first 10 playoff games because of a knee injury, collected the puck after Matt Duchene rang it off the post. Heiskanen slid it over to Granlund for a one-timer that brought him to his knees on the ice. After the shot beat Hellebuyck at 7:23 of the third period, waves of hats hit the ice in celebration of Granlund’s three-goal night.

It was fitting that Rantanen and Heiskanen had points on Granlund’s hat trick. This was the first game that the Stars’ so-called “Finnish Mafia” played together, as Heiskanen was injured before Granlund and Rantanen joined the team. Those three skaters joined countrymen Hintz and defenseman Esa Lindell in helping Dallas to victory.

“It was fun for sure. Fun to finally be on the ice with them,” Heiskanen said.

Goaltender Jake Oettinger did the rest with 31 saves, many of them on dangerous Winnipeg chances. But in the end, all the Stars needed were three shot attempts, while the Jets’ voluminous offensive night produced only one goal.

“Oettinger made some big stops. But we had 70 shot attempts. We have to get more than one goal,” Arniel said. “If we can’t find more than one goal, we’re not going to win hockey games, especially [against] this team.”

Dallas will attempt to close out the series on Thursday night in Winnipeg.

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What to know about MLB lifting ban on Pete Rose, ‘Shoeless’ Joe Jackson

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What to know about MLB lifting ban on Pete Rose, 'Shoeless' Joe Jackson

Pete Rose, Joe Jackson, seven other members of the 1919 Chicago “Black Sox”, six other former players, one coach and one former owner are now eligible to be voted on for the Hall of Fame after commissioner Rob Manfred removed them from Major League Baseball’s permanently ineligible list.

Hall of Fame chairwoman Jane Forbes Clark said in a statement: “The National Baseball Hall of Fame has always maintained that anyone removed from Baseball’s permanently ineligible list will become eligible for Hall of Fame consideration. Major League Baseball’s decision to remove deceased individuals from the permanently ineligible list will allow for the Hall of Fame candidacy of such individuals to now be considered.”

Due to Hall of Fame voting procedures, Rose and Jackson won’t be eligible to be voted on until the Classic Era Baseball committee, which votes on individuals who made their biggest impact prior to 1980, meets in December of 2027.

Let’s dig into what all this means.


Why were these players banned?

All individuals on the banned list who were reinstated had been permanently ineligible due to accusations related to gambling related to baseball — either throwing games, accepting bribes, or like Rose, betting on baseball games.

Most of the banned players, including Jackson and his seven Chicago White Sox teammates who threw the 1919 World Series, played in the 1910s, when gambling in baseball was widespread. As historian Bill James once wrote, “Few simplifications of memory are as bizarre as the notion that the Black Sox scandal hit baseball out of the blue. … In fact, of course, the Black Sox scandal was merely the largest wart of a disease that had infested baseball at least a dozen years earlier and had grown, unchecked, to ravage the features of a generation.”

The most famous player, of course, was Jackson, one of baseball’s biggest stars alongside Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker in the 1910s. While many have tried to exonerate Jackson through the years, pointing out that he hit .375 in the 1919 World Series, baseball historians agree that Jackson was a willing participant in throwing the World Series and accepted money from the gambling ring that paid off the White Sox players.

While the White Sox players were acquitted in a criminal trial in 1921, commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis banned the eight players in a statement that began with the words “Regardless of the verdict of juries …”

If there was an innocent member in the group, it was third baseman Buck Weaver, not Jackson. Weaver had participated in meetings where the fixing of the World Series was discussed, and Landis banned him for life for guilty knowledge.

As for Rose, he was banned in 1989 by commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti for betting on games while he was manager of the Cincinnati Reds, including those involving his own team. While Rose denied the accusations for years, he eventually confessed. He died last September at age 83.


Who else is impacted?

Phillies owner William Cox was banned in 1943 and forced to sell the team for betting on games. Cox had just purchased the team earlier that season. None of the other non-White Sox players are of major significance, although Benny Kauff was the big star of the Federal League in 1914-15, winning the batting title both seasons. The Federal League was a breakoff league that attempted to challenge the National and American leagues.


When is the soonest Rose and Jackson could go into the Hall of Fame?

The Hall of Fame voting process for players not considered by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America — such as Rose and Jackson, who never appeared on the ballot due to their banned status — includes two eras: the Contemporary Baseball Era (1980 to present) and the Classic Baseball Era (pre-1980). The voting periods are already set:

December 2025: Player ballot for the Contemporary Era.

December 2026: Contemporary Era ballot for managers, executives and umpires.

December 2027: Classic Era ballot for players, managers, executives and umpires.

Each committee has an initial screening to place eight candidates on the ballot, so Rose and Jackson will first have to make the ballot. While it’s unclear how a future screening committee will proceed, it’s possible that both will make the ballot. While comparisons to players with PED allegations aren’t exactly apples to apples — since they were never placed on the ineligible list — it’s worth noting that Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro were included on the eight-player Contemporary Era ballot in 2023.

Once the ballot is determined — a 16-person committee consisting of Hall of Fame players, longtime executives and media members or historians — convenes and votes. A candidate must receive 12 votes to get selected. In the most recent election in December, Dave Parker and Dick Allen were on the Classic Era ballot.


Which players have the best HOF cases?

Obviously, Rose would have been a slam-dunk Hall of Famer had he never bet on baseball and had he appeared on the BBWAA ballot after his career ended. The all-time MLB leader with 4,256 hits, Rose won three batting titles and was the 1973 NL MVP. And while he’s overrated in a sense — his 79.6 career WAR is more in line with the likes of Jeff Bagwell, Brooks Robinson and Robin Yount than all-time elite superstars — and hung on well past his prime to break Ty Cobb’s hits record, his popularity and fame would have made him an inner-circle Hall of Famer.

Whether he’ll get support now is complicated. Bonds and Clemens both received fewer than four votes in 2023. The committee usually consists of eight former players, and they may not support Rose given the one hard and fast rule that every player knows: You can’t bet on the game.

Jackson, meanwhile, was a star of the deadball era, hitting .408 in 1911 and .356 in his career, an average that ranks fourth all time behind only Cobb, Negro Leagues star Oscar Charleston and Rogers Hornsby. He finished with 62.2 WAR and 1,772 hits in a career that ended at age 32 due to the ban. Those figures would be low for a Hall of Fame selection, although the era committees did recently elect Allen and Tony Oliva, both of whom finished with fewer than 2,000 hits. And again, it is hard to say how the committee will view Jackson’s connection to gambling on the sport.

The only other reinstated player with a semblance of a chance to get on a ballot is pitcher Eddie Cicotte, who won 209 games and finished with 59.7 WAR. While his final season came at 36, the knuckleballer was still going strong, having won 29 games for the White Sox in 1919 and 21 in 1920 before Landis banned him.

For what it’s worth, the top position players in career WAR who made their mark prior to 1980 and aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Rose, Bill Dahlen (75.3), Bobby Grich (71.0), Graig Nettles (67.6), Reggie Smith (64.6), Ken Boyer (62.8), Jackson and Sal Bando (61.5).

Pitching candidates would include Luis Tiant (65.7), Tommy John (61.6) and Wes Ferrell (60.1). John was on the recent ballot and received seven votes. Others on that ballot included Steve Garvey, Boyer, Negro Leagues pitcher John Donaldson, Negro Leagues manager Vic Harris and Tiant.

Other potential pre-1980 candidates could include Thurman Munson, Bert Campaneris, Dave Concepcion and Stan Hack.

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