How much is MLB’s ultimate unicorn worth? The Shohei Ohtani True Value Calculator
Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.
This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.
Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
— nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.
Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.
Calculating His Base Value
No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.
To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.
The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.
Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.
Avg. Annual Value
$76m
Over the last 3 years
= 1 win = $8m
Risk & Potential for injury
Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.
Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.
Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.
In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.
The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.
Projecting Future Worth
So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.
projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years
Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.
Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.
Aging Adjustment
-$122.3m
Potential loss of value
Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.
Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?
Free Agent Comparisons
Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.
calculating the low end
By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.
By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.
Most similar free agents
$303.5m
calculating the high end
However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.
If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.
Priciest Peers
$624m
These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.
Where Could He Go?
There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.
So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.
Los Angeles Angels
2023 Payroll: $221m
Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 Payroll: $236m
San Francisco Giants
2023 Payroll: $196m
Seattle Mariners
2023 Payroll: $153m
New York Mets
2023 Payroll: $346m
Chicago Cubs
2023 Payroll: $189m
Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.
Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.
San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.
Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?
New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.
Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.
There has been no shortage of excitement already this NHL offseason. Following the Florida Panthers‘ second consecutive Stanley Cup championship — and seemingly never-ending celebration — the annual period of roster modification has begun.
The 2025 NHL draft included 224 prospects finding new homes, and the weekend included trades for Noah Dobson, Charlie Coyle and John Gibson. On Monday, a slew of re-signings, and the trade of Mitch Marner, took several big names off the free agent big board.
Below you will find our continuously updated free agency tracker for 2025, featuring a list of every player signed, including average annual value of the contract in most cases. Analysis of the biggest deals can be found here.
Note that the newest deals are on top, denoted by date.
Draft recap: All 224 picks
Grades for all 32 teams
Winners and losers
July 2
Salmon Arm, British Columbia, native Curtis Lazar is headed back to Western Canada, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $775,000 contract with the Oilers.
Veteran winger Anthony Mantha has made the rounds in recent seasons, and his next NHL home is in Pittsburgh, inking a one-year, $2.5 million pact.
July 1
After a brief stint for an American-based team, Andrew Mangiapane is back in Western Canada, inking a two-year, $3.6 million AAV deal with the Oilers.
Forward Justin Brazeau has chosen the Penguins as his next NHL destination, inking a two-year, $1.5 million AAV contract.
The Devils continued adding to their forward depth, adding veteran scoring winger Evgenii Dadonov via a one-year, $1 million deal.
The July 1 goalie rush continues. The Mammoth are the latest team to make an addition in the crease, inking Stanley Cup champion Vitek Vanecek via a one-year, $1.5 million deal.
Offensive defenseman John Klingberg is headed to San Jose, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $4 million pact with the Sharks.
One of the top remaining free agents available, veteran forward Mikael Granlund has landed with the Ducks on a three-year deal.
Veteran bottom-six forward Lars Eller has chosen the Senators as his next team, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $1.25 million deal.
The Penguins have extended their business relationships with Philip Tomasino (one year, $1.75 million) and Connor Dewar (one year, $1.1 million).
As part of the effort to retake the title of Florida’s best hockey team, the Lightning have inked Pontus Holmberg to a two-year, $1.55 million AAV contract.
The Wild have added Nico Sturm. The former Panther has signed a two-year, $2 million AAV contract.
The Sabres have entered the chat! The club’s first big deal of the day is inking goaltender Alex Lyon to a two-year, $1.5 million AAV contract.
The Kraken add to their goaltending depth, adding former Stanley Cup winner Matt Murray on a one-year, $1 million contract.
The Islanders had themselves a great draft weekend, and they continue the momentum in free agency, adding veteran forward Jonathan Drouin on a two-year, $4 million AAV deal.
The Stars are on the board. Hours after announcing the official hiring of Glen Gulutzan as the club’s new head coach, the Stars have brought back forward Radek Faksa on a two-year, $3 million AAV contract.
Earlier on Tuesday the Kings lost defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov to the Rangers. To help fill that blue-line gap, they signed Cody Ceci (four years, $4.5 million AAV) and Brian Dumoulin (three years, $4 million AAV). They also signed goaltender Anton Forsberg for two years, $2.25 million AAV.
Defenseman Nick Perbix has thus far only known NHL life as a member of the Lightning. He’ll head to Nashville next, agreeing to a two-year, $2.75 million AAV deal with the Predators.
The Panthers have gone to the veteran defenseman well again, signing Jeff Petry to a one-year, $775,000 contract.
Fresh off a Stanley Cup with the Panthers, defenseman Nate Schmidt is joining the Mammoth by way of a three-year, $3.5 million AAV contract.
The NHL career of James van Riemsdyk will continue, as he has agreed to terms with the Red Wings on a one-year, $1 million deal. Separately, the Wings added Jacob Bernard-Docker on a one-year, $875,000 contract.
The Bruins add to their depth, agreeing to terms with Sean Kuraly on a two-year, $1.85 million AAV pact.
Another key member of the Panthers’ championship roster is returning. Veteran forward Tomas Nosek has agreed to a one-year deal.
After completing the 2024-25 season with the Jets, veteran forward Brandon Tanev is sticking in the Central Division, but heading to Utah by way of a three-year, $2.5 million AAV deal.
Take another goalie’s name off the big board! Kaapo Kahkonen has agreed to terms with the Canadiens on a one-year deal worth $1.15 million. In a separate deal, the club also signed forward Sammy Blais.
The winner of the 2020 Hobey Baker Award as the top player in NCAA men’s hockey, defenseman Scott Perunovich has signed a one-year deal with the Mammoth.
In need of some backup goaltending depth, the Islanders agreed to terms with “Big Save” Dave Rittich on a one-year deal.
Diminutive, versatile forward Kailer Yamamoto is the latest player added by the Mammoth, by way of a one-year, $775,000 pact.
Veteran center Nick Bjugstad has made his decision: He’s joining the Blues by way of a two-year contract.
Veteran defenseman Ryan Lindgren finished the 2024-25 season with the Avalanche, and he’ll head northwest for his next NHL home, agreeing to terms on a four-year, $4.5 million AAV contract.
The Senators haven’t been able to lure any new free agents to the club yet, but their re-signing game remains strong. After re-upping with Claude Giroux, the Sens also continued their business relationship with Nick Cousins via a one-year, $825,000 pact.
Sure to be a fan favorite in Beantown, veteran forward Tanner Jeannot has agreed to terms on a five-year contract with the Bruins, with a $3.4 million AAV.
A sixth-round pick in the 2016 draft, winger Michael Pezzetta is going from Montreal to Toronto via a two-year, $787,500 AAV contract.
Connor Brown impressed a lot of viewers with inspired play during the Oilers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final. Now, he’ll bring that energy to the Devils, who have signed him to a four-year, $3 million AAV contract.
The defenseman market is one key player smaller, as the Rangers have agreed to terms with Vladislav Gavrikov on a seven-year, $7 million AAV contract.
One of the top goaltending options available is off the board, with Dan Vladar joining the Flyers via a two-year, $3.35 million AAV contract.
Veteran feisty forward Corey Perry is switching sides in the Oilers-Kings rivalry, agreeing to terms on a one-year deal with salary and bonuses worth $3.5 million. Separately, the Kings also signed veteran forward Joel Armia to a two-year deal with a $2.5 million AAV.
One of the top available free agents has made a decision … and he’ll be re-signing. Brock Boeser is back with the Canucks by way of a seven-year, $7.3 million AAV contract.
Parker Kelly will continue his career with the Avalanche, agreeing to terms on a four-year contract with a $1.7 million AAV.
Veteran forward Colin Blackwell will be returning to the Stars, agreeing to terms on a two-year deal with a $775,000 AAV.
Christian Dvorak has moved on from the Canadiens, agreeing to a one-year, $5.4 million contract with the Flyers.
Noah Juulsen, welcome to Philly! The Flyers have inked the 28-year-old defenseman to a one-year, $900,000 deal.
Defenseman Ryan Johnson is sticking with the Sabres, agreeing to terms on a three-year deal with a $775,000 AAV.
The top-rated goaltender slated to hit free agency this offseason will not make it to market; Jake Allen is back with the Devils via a five-year contract with a $1.8 million AAV.
Veteran offensive defenseman Tony DeAngelo will be back with the Islanders for 2025-26, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $1.75 million contract.
June 30
The Red Wings will be continuing their relationship with veteran forward Patrick Kane, inking a one-year, $3 million extension.
The band is getting back together. After re-upping with Sam Bennett last week, the Panthers re-signed both Aaron Ekblad and Brad Marchand on Monday.
Rumors of a Mitch Marner trade popped up during draft weekend, and they came to fruition Monday, as the Maple Leafs inked Marner to an eight-year, $12 million average annual value extension, then traded him to the Golden Knights for Nicolas Roy.
The Oilers will not be allowing one of their promising young players to leave via offer sheet, as they signed restricted free agent defenseman Evan Bouchard to a four-year, $10.5 million AAV contract.
Veteran defenseman Ivan Provorov would have been one of the most sought-after blueliners on the free agent market. Instead, he’ll be back with the Blue Jackets for the foreseeable future, agreeing to a seven-year, $8.5 million AAV deal.
George Springer had a career-high seven RBIs, including his ninth grand slam, and the Toronto Blue Jays celebrated Canada Day by beating the Yankees 12-5 on Tuesday and closing within one game of American League East-leading New York.
The seven RBIs are tied for the second most by any Blue Jays player in a home game, behind Edwin Encarnación (nine RBIs in 2015), according to ESPN Research.
Andrés Giménez had a go-ahead, three-run homer for the Blue Jays, who overcame a 2-0 deficit against Max Fried. After the Yankees tied the score 4-4 in the seventh, Toronto broke open the game in the bottom half against a reeling Yankees bullpen.
Springer went 3-for-4, starting the comeback with a solo homer in the fourth against Fried and boosting the lead to 9-5 with the slam off Luke Weaver after Ernie Clement‘s go-ahead single off shortstop Anthony Volpe‘s glove. Springer has 13 homers this season.
Toronto won the first two games of the four-game series and closed within one game of the Yankees for the first time since before play on April 20.
New York went 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position, dropping to 3-for-24 in the series, while the Blue Jays were 5-for-7. After going 13-14 in June, the Yankees fell to 10-14 against AL East rivals.
The Associate Press contributed to this report.
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