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Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.

This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.

Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.

Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.

Calculating His Base Value

No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.

To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.

The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.

Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.

Avg. Annual Value

$76m

Over the last 3 years


= 1 win = $8m

Risk & Potential for injury

Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.

Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.

Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.

In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.

The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.

Projecting Future Worth

So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.

projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years

Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth
, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.

Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.

Aging Adjustment

-$122.3m

Potential loss of value


Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.

Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?

Free Agent Comparisons

Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.

calculating the low end

By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.

By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.

Most similar free agents

$303.5m

calculating the high end

However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.

If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.

Priciest Peers

$624m



These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.

Where Could He Go?

There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.

So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year
, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.

Los Angeles Angels

2023 Payroll: $221m

Los Angeles Dodgers

2023 Payroll: $236m

San Francisco Giants

2023 Payroll: $196m

Seattle Mariners

2023 Payroll: $153m

New York Mets

2023 Payroll: $346m

Chicago Cubs

2023 Payroll: $189m

Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.

Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.

San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.

Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?

New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.

Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.

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Amid angry fans, CEO says Pirates won’t be sold

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Amid angry fans, CEO says Pirates won't be sold

Pittsburgh Pirates CEO Travis Williams said the organization is committed to winning but declared to frustrated fans that owner Bob Nutting will not sell the team.

Williams addressed fans’ frustration over Nutting’s ownership Saturday during a Q&A session at the Pirates’ annual offseason fan fest.

As Williams was responding to the first question, one fan in attendance shouted, “Sell the team,” prompting some applause from the audience. At that point, several fans started chanting, “Sell the team!”

Greg Brown, the Pirates’ longtime television play-by-play announcer, asked the fans to stop the chant and to “be respectful.” Another fan then asked Williams, who was seated next to Pirates general manager Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton, why Nutting was not in attendance.

“We know, at the end of the day, this is all passion that has turned into frustration relative to winning,” Williams said, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “I think the points that you are making in terms of ‘Where is Bob?’ That’s why he has us here, we’re here to execute and make sure that we win.”

Williams added that Nutting, who has owned the Pirates since 2018, was scheduled to attend the event and interact with fans at some point later Saturday.

“To answer your immediate question that you said earlier, Bob is not going to sell the team,” Williams said. “He cares about Pittsburgh, he cares about winning, he cares about us putting a winning product on the field, and we’re working towards that every day.”

Nutting has been widely criticized by fans and local media in recent years as the Pirates have toiled at or near the bottom of the National League Central standings.

The Pirates went 76-86 last season en route to their fourth last-place finish in the past six seasons. They have not finished with a winning record since 2018, have not reached the playoffs since 2015 and have just three postseason appearances since 1992.

“We know that there is frustration, frustration because we are not winning, with the expectations of winning,” Williams said. “At the end of the day, that’s not due to lack of commitment to want to win.”

Spurred by the arrival of ace pitcher Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, the Pirates were 55-52 at the trade deadline last season before a 21-34 free fall through the final two months dropped Pittsburgh to last in the NL Central.

“We can just look at last year,” Williams said. “It was a big positive going through the middle of the season, we were going into August two games above .500, but unfortunately we had a tough run in August and that tough run in August took us out of the hunt for the wild card. … From myself to Ben to Derek to lots of other people that are here today and throughout the entire organization, but that’s not for a lack of commitment or desire to win whatsoever.

“That’s from the top all the way down to the bottom of the organization. We are absolutely committed to win; what we need to do is find a way to win.”

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Dodgers land closer Scott for $72M, sources say

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Dodgers land closer Scott for M, sources say

The Los Angeles Dodgers have added left-hander Tanner Scott, arguably the best relief pitcher on the free agent market, agreeing to terms on a four-year, $72 million contract, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Sunday.

The addition of Scott likely puts the finishing touches on another busy offseason for the reigning World Series champions.

Before Scott, the Dodgers signed Blake Snell, one of the best starters on the market; brought back Teoscar Hernandez and signed Michael Conforto, solidifying the corner outfield; signed Korean second baseman Hyeseong Kim, freeing up a trade of Gavin Lux; extended Tommy Edman; and, in one of the winter’s biggest developments, lured phenom Roki Sasaki.

Now Scott, 30, will slot into the back end of a dominant bullpen alongside Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia and Ryan Brasier, among other high-leverage arms.

Originally a sixth-round pick in 2014, Scott has established himself as a dominant force over these past two years. With the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres from 2023 to 2024, Scott posted a 2.04 ERA in 146 appearances, striking out 188 batters and issuing 60 walks in 150 innings.

With Scott, the Dodgers’ luxury tax payroll is estimated to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $375 million, about $70 million more than that of the second-place Philadelphia Phillies.

The New York Yankees are the only other team with a competitive balance tax payroll projected to be over $300 million.

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‘Past and present’: Traditional powers Ohio State and Notre Dame have evolved

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'Past and present': Traditional powers Ohio State and Notre Dame have evolved

ATLANTA — “Think traditionally, but without traditional thinking.”

Those were the words of Ross Bjork, the still-new Ohio State athletic director during the Saturday morning media day ahead of Monday night’s College Football Playoff National Championship game. The question was about the balanced approach taken by his football program, and also by the opponent, Notre Dame. The Buckeyes and Fighting Irish inarguably rank among the most tradition-rich teams in the 155-year history of college football. Yet, here they are, after a combined 271 seasons, the second- and fourth-winningest programs of all time, having steered their way to the final game of this season by embracing modernized approaches to the sport while honoring the history that is as much a part of their DNA as helmets and shoulder pads.

Maintaining the shine on those silver and gold helmets by piling up silver and gold in the form of NIL money.

“We want to work at these places because of what they are and what they have been and the success they’ve enjoyed,” Bjork said. “But we have also been charged with ensuring that’s what they continue to be.”

Bjork said that just as the Buckeyes were ending their media day session and the players who earned a spot in the title game, the ones who cost $20 million to assemble, according to Bjork, filed in around him and headed for the team bus. His mantra about respecting the past while moving toward the future was uttered as 45-year-old head coach Ryan Day was holding court at a podium just over his boss’s shoulder. Day’s big-game failures lit the spark needed to raise those millions to sign those players who are now in Atlanta needing only one more win to earn Ohio State’s first national title in a decade.

When the Buckeyes exited the room, their seats were filled by their counterparts at Notre Dame, whose roster includes 10 additions via transfer, once a taboo subject in South Bend, Indiana. The players opted to play in northern Indiana partly due to the just-established coffers of name, image and likeness money. Those new arrivals included the quarterback from Duke who led the Irish downfield late against Penn State in the CFP semifinals, setting up the transfer kicker from South Carolina who kicked the game-winning field goal. Now, Notre Dame football is on the cusp of its first national title since 1988, when cell phones were still carried in shoulder bags. As the Irish players took their places, coach Marcus Freeman, the human energy shot, immediately and unknowingly parroted Bjork.

“Our everyday walk is spent with one foot firmly planted in our past, but that other foot is always stepping in our future.”

Is that easy, Coach?

“No. But it’s also not a burden. It’s a privilege. Once you understand that, it’s worth it. And what makes it worth it is … well …”

With a smile, the 39-year-old coach — a former All-Big Ten Ohio State defender — swept his hand broadly, toward Mercedes-Benz Stadium across the street, toward the gold-wearing Notre Dame faithful in the nearby Playoff Fan Central craning their necks to see their Irish, and toward the cylindrical gold CFP championship trophy, sitting atop a podium in Freeman’s sightline.

“You win football games by being smart and working hard, that’s no secret,” Freeman’s quarterback, Riley Leonard, said. “But you also have to evolve. I think that in college football now, as much as it keeps changing, programs and universities have to change with it. Your choice is to either do that or get left behind.”

But evolution is also a choice. The dinosaurs didn’t have to walk into the tar pits. And college football programs — even old-timers such as Ohio State and Notre Dame — don’t have to walk into the quicksand of mediocrity, led there by the blinders of obligation to keep on keeping on the same way that Knute Rockne and Woody Hayes did.

“The greatest challenge isn’t changing the minds of the people inside the football building. They are living it. They are going to do whatever it takes,” former Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn, now a college football analyst for Fox, said in December as his alma mater began its CFP run. “It’s making the people who support the program understand what needs to be done. Making them understand that the way it always worked, the way their favorite teams were built, is not how it works now. And then explaining that their support that might have always just been rooting for the team, even buying season tickets, that support needs to be backed monetarily. That makes some people uncomfortable, but it is also the reality. And it pays off. Literally.”

Freeman’s predecessor at Notre Dame, Brian Kelly, has come under fire from those who love the Irish, and some of that is warranted. But criticism that he didn’t understand the modern business model like Freeman does isn’t entirely accurate. That model has changed dramatically since Kelly’s sudden departure for LSU three years ago. Even while he still had the job, finishing his 12 seasons only 13 wins shy of Rockne’s record 105, Kelly openly described the daily tug-of-war between pulling Notre Dame into the current times while also wrestling with the longtime program backers who resisted change, aka “the Gold Seats.”

For example, replacing the analog clock and scoreboards that had long sat atop the end zone edges of Notre Dame Stadium became a battle as Kelly hoped to add videoboards. After a years-long debate, the compromise was to add the TV screens, but keep them to a modest size, similar to the old scoreboards, and immediately prior to and after games, the displays on those screens were to be changed to digital images of the old clock and scoreboard.

“Those are the challenges that you face at a university like Notre Dame that I don’t believe you do anywhere else, and I certainly coached at a lot of other places,” said Lou Holtz, chuckling when discussing his 11 years in South Bend, winning that 1988 national championship and finishing right behind Rockne with 100 victories. “There is no question that it took cooperation from the administration, after some hard conversations about where we wanted Notre Dame football to be in the future, for me to get a player like Tony Rice [QB on the ’88 team] into school. I went to [then-president] Father Joyce and appealed to him directly. But I was told he would be admitted only if he proved himself academically for a year, to go nowhere near a football game. And guess what? Tony Rice has his degree from Notre Dame and to this day, is one the most beloved players in the history of the program. We found his place, and we did it within the framework of what one might call the Notre Dame Way.”

It was with that same mentality that Freeman went about selling the idea of bringing in transfers — a practice rarely entertained by a school understandably proud of its academic reputation — as something that could still fit into the parameters of the Notre Dame Way. The 2024 roster additions were carefully selected. They were established stars but also largely graduate transfers already with college degrees. Two players were required to wait until summer to enroll after their degrees were completed, and in the meantime, were relegated to spring practice observers.

Leonard is an undergrad, but no one questions Duke’s academic credentials. He is also a Notre Dame legacy, the great-grandson of James Curran, a 1940 Irish graduate who played football under head coach Elmer Layden, one of the fabled Four Horsemen.

“The transfer portal has really helped us because it’s allowed us to address specific needs, but it’s also helped us distinguish ourselves as a program in the sense that our kids are still picking Notre Dame for a host of reasons, not just NIL,” said Jack Swarbrick, who served as Notre Dame’s AD from 2008 to 2024 and made the decision to promote Freeman after Kelly’s departure. “No one would come to Notre Dame just for NIL. It’s too hard. If all you worried about is the compensation, you’ll go get it somewhere else. … So, for all the schools that are just recruiting with an emphasis on compensation, we’re now even more distinct than we used to be, and I think that’s helped.

“We have to be very careful in the transfer portal. It’s why nine out of 10 are grad students. It’s just really hard to get undergraduate transfers into Notre Dame.”

As Freeman bolstered his roster in the most gold-helmeted fashion, many who had worn those helmets paved the NIL road. That effort was anchored by a collective kick-started by Quinn, with a stated mission of proving to those Gold Seats who feared the future that their shared alma mater could keep up with the times and still do it on their terms. Friends of the University of Notre Dame — FUND — paid athletes for charity work. Now that the NIL structure has changed again, FUND has been closed, handing over the reins to for-profit collective Rally, designed to better handle the next imminent sea change — revenue sharing.

“It is very important to all of us to do everything we can to honor the hard work and investment that so many people are putting in us, especially the former players,” said sophomore defensive back Christian Grey, who hauled in an interception that set up that final CFP semifinal-winning drive for Leonard & Co. “To me, that’s also learning the history of Notre Dame football. My high school English teacher [in St. Louis] was a Notre Dame grad and he taught me that as soon as I committed. He gave me a Four Horseman poster and it’s been on my wall ever since. It reminds me of what we are playing for. Past and present.”

Meanwhile, it was Ryan Day who spurred the NIL and roster revolution in Columbus. Bjork took over as Ohio State AD one year ago, mere days after Buckeyes archenemy Michigan had won its first national championship in 26 years — this after beating OSU for the third straight season. Bjork hadn’t even unpacked his office when Day approached him with a detailed plan on how to catch up to Michigan. Together, they drummed up financial support, having to point only to the Wolverines’ title run as the reason to start cutting checks. Among those listening were former players.

“We had started a collective, the Foundation, in 2023 because we saw what was happening at places like Texas, Alabama, Michigan, you name it, and we knew our school was falling behind,” said Cardale Jones, quarterback on Ohio State’s 2014 team that won the inaugural CFP title. “Sadly, we didn’t get a lot of support from the school itself. But once that commitment started coming from the inside, you see what happened.”

What happened was that $20 million shopping spree that led to a stunning influx and retention of talent, the most impressive offseason this side of the Philadelphia Eagles. And just when it appeared that de facto Avengers assemblage might not pay off — see: two regular-season losses, including a fourth straight to Michigan — the team that entered the newly expanded 12-team CFP as an at-large invitee has been a Buckeye Buzzsaw. A return on investment.

So is there a long-term place in a universe of perpetual college football change for stuff like gold helmets and Buckeye helmet stickers? The House that Knute Rockne Built and the Horseshoe? “Wake Up the Echoes” and the script Ohio? Stories of Paul Hornung and Hopalong Cassady, or George Gipp and Archie Griffin? Is this fast-forward sport of checks and cascading spreadsheets a place where lighting candles in the Grotto and chanting “O-H! I-O!” is anything other than outdated?

Day and Freeman not only believe all of that can coexist within the framework of the modern college football world, but the two head coaches who will shake hands at midfield Monday night — one a champion — believe that all of the above is the key to survival. The grounding rod. The only way to properly digest — or enjoy — what this world has become.

It’s why Freeman reinstated the lost tradition of Notre Dame football players attending Mass as part of their pregame routine; he has converted to Catholicism. It’s why Day got misty-eyed Saturday morning when asked about Ohio State’s Friday night golf course dinners, with the homemade pecan rolls that became a staple of the Woody Hayes experience, and leading his team into pregame Skull Session pep rallies.

“We are in this to win games and championships, but also to do right by our players and by those who have spent their lives dedicated to the idea of Notre Dame football,” Freeman said. “You lose sight of any part of that, and you’ve lost sight of what this all means.”

Added Day: “As long as they have been playing college football, the greatest programs have stayed great by adapting to the times they are in. You evolve your defense. You evolve your offense. So you also have to evolve how you run your program. But you can’t run away from who you are. You cannot let that happen. Ever. That’s when you lose a lot more than some football games.”

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