How much is MLB’s ultimate unicorn worth? The Shohei Ohtani True Value Calculator
Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.
This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.
Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
— nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.
Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.
Calculating His Base Value
No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.
To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.
The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.
Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.
Avg. Annual Value
$76m
Over the last 3 years
= 1 win = $8m
Risk & Potential for injury
Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.
Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.
Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.
In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.
The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.
Projecting Future Worth
So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.
projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years
Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.
Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.
Aging Adjustment
-$122.3m
Potential loss of value
Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.
Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?
Free Agent Comparisons
Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.
calculating the low end
By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.
By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.
Most similar free agents
$303.5m
calculating the high end
However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.
If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.
Priciest Peers
$624m
These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.
Where Could He Go?
There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.
So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.
Los Angeles Angels
2023 Payroll: $221m
Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 Payroll: $236m
San Francisco Giants
2023 Payroll: $196m
Seattle Mariners
2023 Payroll: $153m
New York Mets
2023 Payroll: $346m
Chicago Cubs
2023 Payroll: $189m
Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.
Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.
San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.
Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?
New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.
Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.
Seven of eight first-round series in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and No. 8 gets rolling on Tuesday.
The Battle of Florida between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers begins anew (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), with both clubs looking like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender if they can survive the intrastate showdown.
Cats-Bolts is the third game of four Tuesday on the ESPN family of networks, following New Jersey–Carolina (6 p.m. ET, ESPN) and Ottawa–Toronto (7:30 p.m., ESPN2), and preceding the nightcap, Minnesota–Vegas (11 p.m. ET, ESPN).
What are the key storylines heading into Tuesday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down Monday night, and the Three Stars of Monday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 2 (CAR leads 1-0) | 6 p.m. ET | ESPN
Game 1 sure did not go as planned for the Devils. A win at the legendarily loud Lenovo Center would’ve been stretching it, but losing Brenden Dillon, Cody Glass and Luke Hughes to injury was not an ideal outcome either.
They’ll hope to rebound Tuesday before the series shifts to Newark. Closing the shot attempt differential might help, as the famously possession-savvy Hurricanes held a 45-24 edge on shots on goal in Game 1.
For years, the knock on Carolina was that it lacked that one goal scorer who could get the Canes over the hump in the playoffs. Many observers thought the Canes had acquired such a player in Mikko Rantanen in January. Ironically, it was the player Carolina acquired in its subsequent trade of Rantanen to Dallas — Logan Stankoven — who scored two goals in Game 1. Will he add to that total in Game 2?
Of note heading into Tuesday’s game, the Devils have come back to win a playoff series after losing the first game 11 out of 26 times (42%); that figure drops to 20% if they fall behind 0-2. The Hurricanes have won six of their past seven series after winning Game 1.
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 2 (TOR leads 1-0) | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
The atmosphere was intense for Game 1, and the Maple Leafs’ “Core Four” led the way: Mitch Marner (one goal, two assists), William Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Auston Matthews (two assists) each filled up the scoresheet. A continuation of that output will obviously help Toronto overwhelm its provincial neighbor.
Slowing down the Maple Leafs could depend on discipline, according to Ottawa captain Brady Tkachuk. “We took too many penalties, they scored on [them] and that’s the game,” Tkachuk told reporters after Game 1. “So that’s on us. We’ve got to be more disciplined.”
The Sens will also need to capitalize on their chances. According to Stathletes, Ottawa had five high-danger scoring chances in this game, and produced only two goals.
Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Game 1 | 8:30 p.m ET | ESPN
This is the fourth time that the two Sunshine State franchises have met in the postseason, and all four of the meetings have occurred since 2021.
In each instance, the winner of the series has gone on to reach the Stanley Cup Final — Lightning in 2021 and 2022; Panthers in 2024 — while the 2021 Lightning and 2024 Panthers won it all.
Unsurprisingly, Nikita Kucherov is Tampa Bay’s leading scorer against Florida, with 25 points (five goals, 20 assists) in 15 games. Aleksander Barkov is the Panthers’ leading scorer against the Lightning, with 13 points (three goals, 10 assists) in 15 games.
The two teams split their meetings in the regular season, with the Lightning winning the most recent, 5-1 on April 15.
Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights
Game 2 (VGK leads 1-0) | 11 p.m. ET | ESPN
The underdog Wild set a physical tone to the series in Game 1, outhitting the Golden Knights 54-29, but the hosts emerged with a 4-2 victory. Tomas Hertl, Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden (two) were the goal scorers for Vegas, and Matt Boldy was responsible for both Minnesota goals.
Howden, who had never scored double-digit goals until his 23 this season, earned praise from coach Bruce Cassidy after Game 1. “He didn’t change his game,” Cassidy told reporters. “He played physical. He’s part of our penalty kill. He’s always out when the goalie’s out, typically one of the six guys we use a lot because of his versatility. He can play wing. He can take draws as a center. He’s been real good for us all year and good again tonight.”
Sunday’s game was the NHL debut for 2024 first-round pick Zeev Buium, who just finished his season with the University of Denver. He played 13 minutes, 37 seconds and finished with one shot on goal.
Arda’s Three Stars of Monday
The greatest goal scorer in NHL history just keeps finding the back of the net. He had two goals, including the overtime winner, as the Caps take Game 1 3-2 despite a valiant third period effort from Montreal to send it to the extra frame.
Connor had the game-winning goal in the third period for the second straight game, as Winnipeg takes both games at home for the 2-0 series lead on the Blues.
Further proof that the Oilers are never out of the game, McDavid helped erase a 4-0 deficit with a goal and three assists, despite the Oilers falling 6-5 late in a thrilling Game 1.
Monday’s scores
Capitals 3, Canadiens 2 (OT)
Washington leads 1-0
Much of the regular season was spent focused on Alex Ovechkin‘s “Gr8 Chase” of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal-scoring record, and he scored historic goal No. 895 on Sunday, April 6. It turns out, Ovi likes the spotlight. The Capitals superstar opened the scoring in the game, and bookended it with the overtime winner — his first ever, believe it or not — as the Caps survived a thriller in Game 1, following Nick Suzuki‘s tying goal with 4:15 remaining. Full recap.
1:51
Alex Ovechkin’s OT goal wins Game 1 for Capitals
Alex Ovechkin’s second goal of the game is an overtime winner that gives the Capitals a 1-0 series lead vs. the Canadiens.
Jets 2, Blues 1
Winnipeg leads 2-0
Game 1 between the two clubs was tightly contested until the Jets took over in the third period. That trend took hold again on Monday — the score remained tied into 1-1 the third period, when Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor scored at the 1:43 mark, and the Jets were able to hold the Blues off the scoreboard for the duration. Connor’s linemate Mark Scheifele assisted on the game-winner and opened the scoring, giving him a league-leading five points this postseason. Full recap.
0:40
Kyle Connor scores clutch goal to put Jets ahead in 3rd period
Kyle Connor extends Winnipeg’s lead after a clutch goal early in the 3rd period vs. St. Louis.
Stars 4, Avalanche 3 (OT)
Series tied 1-1
The series that every observer thought would be the closest in the first round didn’t look that way in Game 1, as the Avs ran over the Stars en route to a 5-1 win. Game 2 was much more in line with expectations, as the two Western powerhouses needed OT to settle things. Colin Blackwell was the hero for Dallas, scoring with 2:14 remaining in the first OT period. Full recap.
0:50
Colin Blackwell comes up with big OT winner for Stars
Colin Blackwell sends the Stars faithful into jubilation with a great overtime winner to tie the series at 1-1 vs. the Avalanche.
Kings 6, Oilers 5
Los Angeles leads 1-0
Monday’s nightcap was a delight to those who like offensive hockey and were willing to stay up late. The Kings roared out to a four-goal lead late in the second period before Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl scored to pull within three with six seconds remaining. The two teams traded goals to start the third, before the Oilers notched three in a row to tie up the festivities with 1:28 remaining on Connor McDavid‘s first of the 2025 playoffs. L.A.’s Phillip Danault sent his club’s fans home happy, scoring the pivotal goal with 42 seconds left. Full recap.
0:46
Kings retake lead on Phillip Danault’s goal in final minute
Phillip Danault restores the lead for the Kings with a goal vs. the Oilers in the closing moments.
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