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Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.

This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.

Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.

Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.

Calculating His Base Value

No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.

To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.

The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.

Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.

Avg. Annual Value

$76m

Over the last 3 years


= 1 win = $8m

Risk & Potential for injury

Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.

Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.

Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.

In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.

The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.

Projecting Future Worth

So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.

projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years

Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth
, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.

Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.

Aging Adjustment

-$122.3m

Potential loss of value


Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.

Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?

Free Agent Comparisons

Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.

calculating the low end

By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.

By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.

Most similar free agents

$303.5m

calculating the high end

However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.

If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.

Priciest Peers

$624m



These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.

Where Could He Go?

There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.

So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year
, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.

Los Angeles Angels

2023 Payroll: $221m

Los Angeles Dodgers

2023 Payroll: $236m

San Francisco Giants

2023 Payroll: $196m

Seattle Mariners

2023 Payroll: $153m

New York Mets

2023 Payroll: $346m

Chicago Cubs

2023 Payroll: $189m

Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.

Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.

San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.

Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?

New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.

Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.

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OSU’s Bjork tells CFP: Calendar change needed

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OSU's Bjork tells CFP: Calendar change needed

LAS COLINAS, Texas — Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork told leaders of the College Football Playoff on Tuesday that the sport’s calendar needs to change, and it’s a critical component as they consider the playoff’s future format.

Bjork, just months removed from watching his Buckeyes win the national title, attended a portion of the annual CFP spring meetings to provide feedback with the three other athletic directors who participated in semifinals and hosted first-round games: Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte, Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, who is part of the CFP’s management committee along with the 10 FBS commissioners.

Bjork said CFP executive director Rich Clark asked if he had one major point he wanted to make before leaving.

“We’ve had so many disruptions over the last five-plus years that I think the time is now to not be reactive, be proactive,” Bjork told ESPN. “When we had this setting here with the commissioners, our job was to provide feedback on what was it like to go through the 12-team playoff … but it all gets impacted by the calendar. I felt it was important to lay that out with everyone in the room to say, separate from the CFP process, if we don’t fix our calendar as an industry, then we’re going to continue to have unintended consequences.”

Bjork shared with the commissioners the perspective of a school trying to win a national title while classes had begun Jan. 6. Ohio State’s academic advisers traveled with the team to the semifinal and national title game, he said, but some athletes missed class and the school had to apply for waivers around the countable athletically related activities, which limits schools to 20 hours of practice time while classes are in session.

“When you don’t have class, there is no limit to CARA hours,” he said, noting that Texas started classes later. “It created some disadvantages. It all goes back to what’s countable CARA hours, NCAA structure. The portal is the next big conversation after the House case and truly what kind of rules can we set? Will we have the authority around transfer rules to set some parameters?”

Bjork said the transfer portal needs to move to a 10-day period in May for fall sports because if the NCAA House settlement is approved, most of the players are going to be signing revenue share agreements with the schools from July 1 to June 30.

“May makes the most sense” to align player contracts with the portal, Bjork said.

Bjork, who said he’s on the implementation committee for the House settlement, said “if everyone follows the structure, it’s going to be a great structure.”

“And everyone has to follow the rules,” he said, “and agree that this is the structure, which we have to. If we don’t do that, then what good is the settlement?”

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Manfred eyes ‘big crowd’ when Bristol hosts MLB

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Manfred eyes 'big crowd' when Bristol hosts MLB

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Major League Baseball has played at the “Field of Dreams” movie site. Now baseball is eager to see just how big a crowd will show up for a game at a NASCAR bullring of a track.

And Bristol Motor Speedway can hold a lot of people.

It’s part of commissioner Rob Manfred’s push to take MLB to locations where baseball isn’t played every day live. MLB played a game at the movie site in Iowa in both 2021 and 2022. Alabama, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, too.

Now it’s Tennessee’s turn.

Manfred noted Tuesday after speaking at the CAA World Congress of Sports Presented by Sports Business Journal that the Tennessee Volunteers are the defending college baseball national champions, with Vanderbilt winner of two college titles. Manfred sees lots of alignment between NASCAR and MLB fans.

“Big crowd, big crowd,” Manfred said of what is expected at Bristol on Aug. 2. “We think that it’s an opportunity to have a really large audience for a major league game, and we think the setting in really a legendary speedway is going to be awesome for a baseball game.”

Nobody is ready to put a number on how many will turn out for the MLB Speedway Classic when the Cincinnati Reds host the Atlanta Braves. Bristol set a record for a college football game in 2016 and has a capacity of 146,000 for racing.

This game will be played on a field laid over part of the speedway infield and the high-banked track.

Derek Schiller, president and chief executive officer of the Braves, said MLB approached the team a few years ago about this possibility. Schiller said the Braves were adamant about wanting to be a part of this game.

“We know that there’s a uniqueness to it that is unmatched,” Schiller said. “Playing a baseball game at a motor speedway and being part of that was really important also because this is part of where our fan base comes from. So we think many, maybe most of those fans are going to be Atlanta Braves fans.”

Officials announced Tuesday that country superstar Tim McGraw will perform a concert an hour before first pitch. McGraw has ties to baseball having earned a college scholarship playing the sport. His late father Tug McGraw won two World Series titles pitching for the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.

That’s just part of the day of events planned leading up to the game. Jerry Caldwell, president and general manager of Bristol Motor Speedway, would only tease that more announcements are coming. All are designed to give fans reasons to get to the track and into their seats as early as possible.

Hosting an event like this is nothing new for Bristol. The track hosted the Tennessee Volunteers and Virginia Tech in the Battle of Bristol in 2016 before a record 156,990 fans.

So track officials have experience adapting the half-mile concrete track into something new. Caldwell said preparations started before the track’s spring race April 13, won by Kyle Larson. Bristol then will have six weeks until hosting a night NASCAR Cup Series race in the playoffs on Sept. 13.

“It’s becoming very real,” Caldwell said. “We’re approaching 100 days out from the game, and we’re thrilled with the progress.”

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Guardians place Thomas on IL with bruised wrist

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Guardians place Thomas on IL with bruised wrist

CLEVELAND — Guardians center fielder Lane Thomas was placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a bruised right wrist sustained when he got hit by a pitch two weeks ago.

The move is retroactive to April 20.

Thomas, who was a postseason star for Cleveland in 2024, was struck on the wrist in the home opener against the Chicago White Sox on April 8. He has played in five games since, including Sunday at Pittsburgh.

Thomas said his wrist initially responded to treatment, but it began troubling him after he played over the weekend.

“I got that first jam shot base hit when I played that first day and it just kind of swelled up after that,” Thomas said. “I kind of lost some range of motion, so they just thought the best option was to try and get all that out of there and not go through that same cycle again.”

Manager Stephen Vogt hopes putting Thomas on the IL will give him time to let the injury heal correctly.

“Let’s take eight to 10 days, knock this thing out so that it’s behind us for the rest of the year,” Vogt said. “Out of fairness for him to be able to be himself and not wonder how’s it going to feel today when I wake up. We decided that with Lane, that this was the best course of action.”

Thomas has twice broken the same wrist after being hit by pitches. He went 2 for 15 with five strikeouts in five games after getting hit.

The Guardians acquired Thomas, 29, in a July trade with Washington. He struggled for much of the regular season before having his biggest moments with Cleveland in October.

Thomas hit two homers in the AL Division Series against Detroit, connecting for a grand slam in Game 5 off Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal to help the Guardians advance.

To replace Thomas, the club selected the contract of infielder Will Wilson from Triple-A Columbus. The Guardians also transferred right-hander Trevor Stephan, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day injured list.

Wilson was batting .324 for the Columbus Clippers with six homers and 18 RBIs in 18 games. He homered in three of his past four games.

This is the 26-year-old’s first promotion to the majors. He’s a former first-round pick of the Los Angeles Angels, who traded him to San Francisco in 2019. Cleveland acquired Wilson in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft this past offseason.

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