JPMorgan executive explains why decarbonization is a megatrend that business can’t ignore
Rama Variankaval, global head of the center for carbon transition for JP Morgan Securities LLC, speaks during the Aspen Ideas: Climate conference in Miami Beach, Florida, US, on Thursday, March, 9, 2023. Aspen Ideas: Climate is a solutions-focused event designed for the public to interact with and learn from climate leaders whose ideas and actions are critical to address our collective future.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Rama Variankaval is in his twentieth year working at JPMorgan Chase and at the end of 2020, he expanded his role in the corporate finance advisory arm of the bank to help spearhead the bank’s strategy on decarbonization, which refers to reducing or eliminating carbon dioxide emissions from a system or process.
He believes that decarbonization is a megatrend for the global financial markets, much like digitization has been for the last few decades.
“At any point in time, there are certain megatrends that impact more than just a narrow part of the economy,” Variankaval told CNBC in a video interview earlier in August. In his career at JPMorgan, Variankaval’s mission has been to identify and have a viewpoint on what those megatrends are and then to “direct our energies, our efforts, our balance sheets, to align with those megatrends.”
He believes decarbonization is a megatrend because global regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will touch every business in every part of the world.
“It doesn’t matter whether you’re an energy client, or a consumer products client, or a retail client, there is something about this megatrend that is going to impact your business model, your business,” Variankaval told CNBC.
JPMorgan is looking be a big lender in the sector. The bank has said it is aiming to finance more than $2.5 trillion in the coming decade to advance climate and sustainable development goals.
Megatrend started around 2020
The topic of ESG investing — which stands for environmental, social, and corporate governance and is describes an investing strategy which incorporates non-financial measures of responsibilities — started coming up in 2018 “quite frequently,” Variankaval told CNBC. The focus on ESG was a harbinger of the forthcoming and increasingly intense focus on climate.
Climate change has been an issue for much longer than decarbonization has been a global financial megatrend, but a number of factors coincided to make decarbonization a business imperative.
The Paris Climate Agreement, adopted by 196 parties at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015, was “a fairly massive catalyst,” Variankaval said.
By 2020, large asset owners, like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, started to prioritize decarbonization “with higher intensity,” says Variankaval.
As the largest asset owners started to prioritize decarbonization, their influence trickled down and influenced the behavior of other financial gate keepers. Asset managers started asking the companies where they were making investments to start focusing resources and operations on decarbonization. For publicly traded companies, that pressure came in the form of proxy votes on issues relating to decarbonization.
In 2020, JPMorgan formally announced its Center for Carbon Transition, a group responsible for designing and implementing the JPMorgan strategy around climate and sustainability as it pertains to its client-facing businesses, and to also engage with those companies about that strategy “because we felt everyone was thinking about these topics” at the same time, Variankaval told CNBC.
President Joe Biden signs The Inflation Reduction Act with (left to right) Sen. Joe Manchin, D-WV; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-NY; House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-SC; Rep. Frank Pallone, D-NJ; and Rep. Kathy Catsor, D-FL, at the White House on Aug. 16, 2022.
Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The Biden administration’s landmark climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, signed in August 2022, further established the megatrend, accelerating the flow of capital into decarbonization and low-carbon technologies like solar, wind, green hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel, carbon capture, and other areas.
The IRA lowered the net cost of capital for these decarbonization technology companies by as much as 5% (500 basis points), according to Variankaval, because it made it cheaper for decarbonization companies to put together their capital stack, or financing for deals. Deals that were typically done with a combination of debt and equity got a third source of capital added to the mix: Tax credits and the associated tax equity.
The IRA happened just as the broader economy simultaneously slowed down because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat rising inflation. The higher interest rates in the broader economy counteracted some of the incentives of the IRA, but even against the backdrop of a softening broader economy, the IRA has already turbocharged the sector. By JPMorgan’s count, more than $100 billion of investments have been announced in just the last year with a direct link to the IRA, says Variankaval.
Also, there’s about $50 billion a year going into climate tech companies via private funding and venture capital funding pathways, says Variankaval.
“We see massive amounts of capital formation happening around the climate theme, or around the decarbonization theme, and we absolutely want to be the bank that is a leader in helping our clients navigate that, whether they are small clients or big clients,” Variankaval told CNBC.
While the IRA is specific to the United states, companies and governments are re-evaluating their own industrial policies around the globe to focus more on resiliency than they previously have, says Variankaval.
“We went, I think, a period of 15, 20, 30 years, where efficiency was the number one guiding principle of how you organize yourself,” Variankaval told CNBC. The thinking was: “let’s find the cheapest place to do every part of our supply chain, and stitch it all together,” Variankaval said.
But now, the resiliency of a company’s supply chain is being given as much priority as efficiency. And sustainability is a keystone of resiliency.
In addition to a sharpening global focus on decarbonization, the Covid-19 pandemic brought a particularly strong spotlight on the importance of supply chains, their vulnerability, and the importance of focusing on resiliency in supply chain management.
“All of these are coming together in a way to, I think, be perhaps the largest change in how capital flows that at least I have seen in my lifetime,” Variankaval told CNBC.
It’s too soon to be picking winners and losers
In addition to helping its clients adapt to a decarbonizing economy, JPMorgan also sees opportunity in being the bank for the burgeoning and potentially high-growth sector of climate tech companies.
“We absolutely want to be there with them at the ground level, and then have these companies grow with us. We want to be the bank of their choice,” Variankaval said.
Right now, Variankaval says, it’s too soon to know exactly which climate tech companies are going to the winners and losers.
“In a more traditional way of bringing about changes, a lot of research gets done in academic labs and government labs, and then people take it out and test it out in the commercial setting, and figure out what works, what doesn’t work. It’s a multi decade-long process,” Variankaval told CNBC.
It took two decades for the Internet from invention to wide business adoption, but “we don’t have the luxury of time when it comes to climate tech to go through the long-run process,” Variankaval said.
In some segments of climate tech, there are debates about which solutions are better than others that take on a near religious fervor. That’s not particularly helpful in his view.
“We have to deploy capital across all likely solutions, knowing that some may not really work as promised and the use cases may not quite be what we think they could be today. But others might surprises. And some might kick into action sooner, some might just take longer to kick into action. So you need to diversify in terms of technologies, but also in time horizons,” Variankaval told CNBC.
“You can’t really pick winners and losers at this point. We’re just too early. And that is at least how we think about it.”
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Mark Zuckerberg’s announcement this week that Meta would pivot its moderation policies to allow more “free expression” was widely viewed as the company’s latest effort to appease President-elect Donald Trump.
More than any of its Silicon Valley peers, Meta has taken numerous public steps to make amends with Trump since his election victory in November.
That follows a highly contentious four years between the two during Trump’s first term in office, which ended with Facebook — similar to other social media companies — banning Trump from its platform.
As recently as March, Trump was using his preferred nickname of “Zuckerschmuck” when talking about Meta’s CEO and declaring that Facebook was an “enemy of the people.”
With Meta now positioning itself to be a key player in artificial intelligence, Zuckerberg recognizes the need for White House support as his company builds data centers and pursues policies that will allow it to fulfill its lofty ambitions, according to people familiar with the company’s plans who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak on the matter.
“Even though Facebook is as powerful as it is, it still had to bend the knee to Trump,” said Brian Boland, a former Facebook vice president, who left the company in 2020.
Meta declined to comment for this article.
In Tuesday’s announcement, Zuckerberg said Meta will end third-party fact-checking, remove restrictions on topics such as immigration and gender identity and bring political content back to users’ feeds. Zuckerberg pitched the sweeping policy changes as key to stabilizing Meta’s content-moderation apparatus, which he said had “reached a point where it’s just too many mistakes and too much censorship.”
The policy change was the latest strategic shift Meta has taken to buddy up with Trump and Republicans since Election Day.
A day earlier, Meta announced that UFC CEO Dana White, a longtime Trump friend, is joining the company’s board.
And last week, Meta announced that it was replacing Nick Clegg, its president of global affairs, with Joel Kaplan, who had been the company’s policy vice president. Clegg previously had a career in British politics with the Liberal Democrats party, including as a deputy prime minister, while Kaplan was a White House deputy chief of staff under former President George W. Bush.
Kaplan, who joined Meta in 2011 when it was still known as Facebook, has longstanding ties to the Republican Party and once worked as a law clerk for the late conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. In December, Kaplan posted photos on Facebook of himself with Vice President-elect JD Vance and Trump during their visit to the New York Stock Exchange.
Joel Kaplan, Facebook’s vice president of global policy, on April 17, 2018.
Niall Carson | PA Images | Getty Images
Many Meta employees criticized the policy change internally, with some saying the company is absolving itself of its responsibility to create a safe platform. Current and former employees also expressed concern that marginalized communities could face more online abuse due to the new policy, which is set to take effect over the coming weeks.
Despite the backlash from employees, people familiar with the company’s thinking said Meta is more willing to make these kinds of moves after laying off 21,000 employees, or nearly a quarter of its workforce, in 2022 and 2023.
Those cuts affected much of Meta’s civic integrity and trust and safety teams. The civic integrity group was the closest thing the company had to a white-collar union, with members willing to push back against certain policy decisions, former employees said. Since the job cuts, Zuckerberg faces less friction when making broad policy changes, the people said.
Zuckerberg’s overtures to Trump began in the months leading up to the election.
Following the first assassination attempt on Trump in July, Zuckerberg called the photo of Trump raising his fist with blood running down his face “one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life.”
A month later, Zuckerberg penned a letter to the House Judiciary Committee alleging that the Biden administration had pressured Meta’s teams to censor certain Covid-19 content.
“I believe the government pressure was wrong, and I regret that we were not more outspoken about it,” he wrote.
After Trump’s presidential victory, Zuckerberg joined several other technology executives who visited the president-elect’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Meta also donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund.
On Friday, Meta revealed to its workforce in a memo obtained by CNBC that it intends to shutter several internal programs related to diversity and inclusion in its hiring process, representing another Trump-friendly move.
The previous day, some details of the company’s new relaxed content-moderation guidelines were published by the news site The Intercept, showing the kind of offensive rhetoric that Meta’s new policy would now allow, including statements such as “Migrants are no better than vomit” and “I bet Jorge’s the one who stole my backpack after track practice today. Immigrants are all thieves.”
Recalibrating for Trump
Zuckerberg, who has been dragged to Washington eight times to testify before congressional committees during the last two administrations, wants to be perceived as someone who can work with Trump and the Republican Party, people familiar with the matter said.
Though Meta’s content-policy updates caught many of its employees and fact-checking partners by surprise, a small group of executives were formulating the plans in the aftermath of the U.S. election results. By New Year’s Day, leadership began planning the public announcements of its policy change, the people said.
Meta typically undergoes major “recalibrations” after prominent U.S. elections, said Katie Harbath, a former Facebook policy director and CEO of tech consulting firm Anchor Change. When the country undergoes a change in power, Meta adjusts its policies to best suit its business and reputational needs based on the political landscape, Harbath said.
“In 2028, they’ll recalibrate again,” she said.
After the 2016 election and Trump’s first victory, for example, Zuckerberg toured the U.S. to meet people in states he hadn’t previously visited. He published a 6,000-word manifesto emphasizing the need for Facebook to build more community.
The social media company faced harsh criticism about fake news and Russian election interference on its platforms after the 2016 election.
Following the 2020 election, during the heart of the pandemic, Meta took a harder stand on Covid-19 content, with a policy executive saying in 2021 that the “amount of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation that violates our policies is too much by our standards.” Those efforts may have appeased the Biden administration, but it drew the ire of Republicans.
Meta is once again reacting to the moment, Harbath said.
“There wasn’t a business risk here in Silicon Valley to be more right-leaning,” Harbath said.
While Trump has offered few specific policy proposals for his second administration, Meta has plenty at stake.
The White House could create more relaxed AI regulations compared with those in the European Union, where Meta says harsh restrictions have resulted in the company not releasing some of its more advanced AI technologies. Meta, like other tech giants, also needs more massive data centers and cutting-edge computer chips to help train and run their advanced AI models.
“There’s a business benefit to having Republicans win, because they are traditionally less regulatory,” Harbath said.
Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg reacts as he testifies during the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on online child sexual exploitation at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., January 31, 2024.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
Meta isn’t alone in trying to cozy up to Trump. But the extreme measures the company is taking reflects a particular level of animus expressed by Trump over the years.
Trump has accused Meta of censorship and has expressed resentment over the company’s two-year suspension of his Facebook and Instagram accounts following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
In July 2024, Trump posted on Truth Social that he intended to “pursue Election Fraudsters at levels never seen before, and they will be sent to prison for long periods of time,” adding “ZUCKERBUCKS, be careful!” Trump reiterated that statement in his book, “Save America,” writing that Zuckerberg plotted against him during the 2020 election and that the Meta CEO would “spend the rest of his life in prison” if it happened again.
Meta spends $14 million annually on providing personal security for Zuckerberg and his family, according to the company’s 2024 proxy statement. As part of that security, the company analyzes any threats or perceived threats against its CEO, according to a person familiar with the matter. Those threats are cataloged, analyzed and dissected by Meta’s multitude of security teams.
After Trump’s comments, Meta’s security teams analyzed how Trump could weaponize the Justice Department and the country’s intelligence agencies against Zuckerberg and what it would cost the company to defend its CEO against a sitting president, said the person, who asked not to be named because of confidentiality.
Meta’s efforts to appease the incoming president bring their own risks.
After Zuckerberg announced the new speech policy Tuesday, Boland, the former executive, was among a number of users who took to Meta’s Threads service to tell their followers that they were quitting Facebook.
“Last post before deleting,” Boland wrote in his post.
Before the post could be seen by any of his Threads followers, Meta’s content moderation system had taken it down, citing cybersecurity reasons.
Boland told CNBC in an interview that he couldn’t help but chuckle at the situation.
“It’s deeply ironic,” Boland said.
— CNBC’s Salvador Rodriguez contributed to this report.
WATCH: Meta is returning to free speech tradition, says Facebook’s former chief privacy officer Chris Kelly
Jaap Arriens | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Apple is losing market share in China due to declining iPhone shipments, supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote in a report on Friday. The stock slid 2.4%.
“Apple has adopted a cautious stance when discussing 2025 iPhone production plans with key suppliers,” Kuo, an analyst at TF Securities, wrote in the post. He added that despite the expected launch of the new iPhone SE 4, shipments are expected to decline 6% year over year for the first half of 2025.
Kuo expects Apple’s market share to continue to slide, as two of the coming iPhones are so thin that they likely will only support eSIM, which the Chinese market currently does not promote.
“These two models could face shipping momentum challenges unless their design is modified,” he wrote.
Kuo wrote that in December, overall smartphone shipments in China were flat from a year earlier, but iPhone shipments dropped 10% to 12%.
There is also “no evidence” that Apple Intelligence, the company’s on-device artificial intelligence offering, is driving hardware upgrades or services revenue, according to Kuo. He wrote that the feature “has not boosted iPhone replacement demand,” according to a supply chain survey he conducted, and added that in his view, the feature’s appeal “has significantly declined compared to cloud-based AI services, which have advanced rapidly in subsequent months.”
Apple’s estimated iPhone shipments total about 220 million units for 2024 and between about 220 million and 225 million for this year, Kuo wrote. That is “below the market consensus of 240 million or more,” he wrote.
Apple did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
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