Kemi Badenoch heads to India this week in the hope of making progress on a trade deal, but government sources played down the prospect of an imminent breakthrough.
A source told Sky News that “tricky” issues have not yet been resolved as the talks enter their twelfth round, almost a year after a deadline announced by Boris Johnson.
Government insiders say a full trade agreement being struck in time for Rishi Sunak’s first official visit to India in September for the G20 summit is unlikely, despite “passion on both sides”.
“It’s about the deal and not the date. There are several outstanding issues, and you leave the really tricky stuff until the end,” a UK government source said.
A breakthrough in talks is not impossible, insiders said, but after criticism from ministers of the UK’s deal with Australia, they say officials are not working to a deadline.
These difficult issues are understood to include relaxation of visa rules for Indian workers – as well as continued wrangling on trade standards.
Ms Badenoch will attend a meeting of G20 trade ministers in Jaipur and then head to Delhi to meet with industry minister Piyush Goyal.
While in Delhi, she will also meet the chairman of Tata group Natarajan Chandrasekaran, to discuss the company’s investments in the UK including the steelworks at Port Talbot in South Wales.
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A deal with India, which would be the largest bilateral post-Brexit trade deal the UK has struck, was one of Ms Badenoch’s key priorities as trade secretary. Progress is understood to have been made on agreements to reduce prohibitive import tariffs on cars and whisky – to open up opportunities for British firms.
India is predicted to be the world’s third largest economy by 2050, and the UK government estimated in 2019 that a trade deal could increase UK GDP by around £3.3bn by 2035.
MPs were critical of the announcement by Boris Johnson, who promised last April that a deal would be signed “by Diwali”, an Indian autumn festival that occurred last year in October. The deadline has long passed.
Ms Badenoch said in December, when embarking on an earlier round of negotiations, that an “amazing” deal was possible, but she had no plans to discuss if student visas were part of it. Time-limited visas for highly qualified workers were under discussion, she told a newspaper.
Her trip last year was billed as a reset for negotiations. Home Secretary Suella Braverman was said to have set back the talks when she said in an interview last year that she had “concerns about an open borders migration policy with India” and pointed out that “the largest group of people who overstay [their visas] are Indian migrants”.
Speaking to Sky News, Labour’s shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, Pat McFadden, said his party would not rule anything out when asked if they opposed more visas being given to India.
Shadow trade secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds said: “The Conservatives’ record on trade negotiations has been to deliver bad deals or no deals at all.
“They committed to delivering agreements with India and with the United States by the end of 2022, yet failed to meet their own deadline. So them trumpeting the latest round of trade talks falls far short the concrete action needed to get any deal across the line.
“India is a key partner for the UK, we have deep historical links and it is a fast-growing economy, so Labour is committed to deepening our trade links.”
Mr Sunak‘s appointment as prime minister last year triggered great interest in India, with the TV station NDTV greeting it as an “Indian son rises over the Empire”.
With both he and Narendra Modi expecting to face elections next year, a government source said there was “genuine passion on both sides” for a deal to come together.
Recent reports in India have suggested a deal is closer than UK officials say. Indian commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal claimed in the summer that it could be signed “well before” the end of the year.
It would be India’s first free trade deal with a developed country, after an interim pact with Australia last year. Long-running talks have been held with the EU and US on trade.
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A Department of Business and Trade spokesperson said: “The UK and India are committed to working towards the best deal possible for both sides. We’ve made good progress in closing chapters, and are now laser-focused on goods, services, and investment.
“While we cannot comment on ongoing negotiations, we are clear that we will only sign when we have a deal that is fair, balanced, and ultimately in the best interests of the British people and the economy.
It’s no great surprise that members of a Labour MPs’ LGBT+ WhatsApp group would be raising concerns about the impact of this week’s Supreme Court ruling on the trans community.
But the critical contributions reportedly made by some of the group’s higher-profile ministerial members highlight the underlying divisions with the Labour Partyover the issue – and point to future tensions once the practical implications of the judgement become clear.
Messages leaked to the Mail on Sunday allegedly include the Home Office minister Dame Angela Eagle writing “the ruling is not as catastrophic at it seems but the EHRC [Equality and Human Rights Commission] guidance might be & there are already signs that some public bodies are overreacting”.
Culture minister Sir Chris Bryant reportedly replied he “agreed” with another MP’s opinion that the EHRC chair Baroness Falkner was “pretty appalling” when she said the ruling would mean trans women could not use single-sex female facilities or compete in women’s sports.
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2:10
Gender ruling – How it happened
Government sources argue these messages are hardly evidence of any kind of plot or mass revolt against the Supreme Court’s ruling.
But they still raise uncomfortable questions for a party that has been on a tortuous journey over the issue.
Under Jeremy Corbyn, Labour was committed to introducing self-identification – enabling people to change their legal sex without a medical diagnosis – a position dropped in 2023.
Back in 2021, Sir Keir Stamer said the then Labour MP Rosie Duffield was “not right” to say “only women have a cervix”. But three years later he acknowledged that “biologically, she of course is right”.
Duffield, who now sits as an independent, is asking for an apology – but that doesn’t seem to be forthcoming from a government keen to minimise its own role in changing social attitudes to the issue.
The Conservative position on this has also chopped and changed – with Theresa May‘s support for gender self-ID ditched under Boris Johnson.
As the Conservatives’ equalities minister, Kemi Badenoch led the UK government’s fight against Scotland’s efforts to make it easier to change gender – and she’s determined to punch Labour’s bruise on the issue.
This weekend, she’s written to the cabinet secretary calling for an investigation into a possible breach of the ministerial or civil service code over a statement made by the Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson in response to the ruling, which said “we have always supported the protection of single-sex spaces based on biological sex”.
The Tories claim this is false, because last summer Ms Phillipson herself gave an interview in which she suggested that trans women with penises could use female toilets.
Ms Phillipson has been approached for a response.
Her comments, however, are entirely in keeping with the government’s official statement on the judgement, which claims they have “always supported the protection of single-sex spaces based on biological sex” and welcomed the ruling as giving “clarity and confidence for women and service providers”.
The government statement added: “Single-sex spaces are protected in law and will always be protected by this government.”
The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) push to isolate crypto markets and its controversial recommendations on DeFi and stablecoins is “dangerous” for the entire financial system, warns the head of a blockchain investment firm.
“Many of their recommendations and conclusions — perhaps due to a mix of fear, arrogance, or ignorance — are completely uninformed and, frankly, dangerous,” CoinFund president Christopher Perkins said in an April 19 X post, referring to the BIS’ April 15 report titled “Cryptocurrencies and Decentralized Finance: Functions and Financial Stability Implications.”
BIS recommendations exposes TradFi to risks of “unimaginable scale”
“Crypto is not communism,” Perkins said, pushing back against the BIS’ call for a “containment” approach to isolate crypto from traditional finance and the broader economy.
“It’s the new internet that provides anyone with a connection access to financial services,” Perkins said. “You cannot control it anymore than you control the internet,” he added.
Perkins warned that a containment approach to crypto would expose the traditional financial system to massive liquidity risks “of unimaginable scale,” especially when the crypto market operates in real-time, 24/7, while traditional financial markets shuts down after trading hours.
“If implemented they will cause–not mitigate–the systemic risk they seek to prevent.”
Perkins pushed back against the BIS’ claim that DeFi presents significant challenges, arguing instead that it represents a “significant improvement” over the “opacity” and imbalances of the traditional financial system.
Responding to the BIS’s concern about the anonymity of DeFi developers, Perkins questioned its relevance:
“Sorry, but when was the last time a TradFi company published a list of its developers? Sure, public companies provide a degree of disclosures and transparency, but they seem to be dying off in favor of private markets.”
Perkins also critiqued the BIS’s concern around stablecoins that it could lead to “macroeconomic instability in countries like Venezuela and Zimbabwe.”
“If there is demand for USD stablecoins and it helps improve the condition of anyone in the developing world, perhaps that is a good thing,” Perkins said.
Perkins wasn’t alone in criticizing the controversial report. Lightspark co-founder Christian Catalini also weighed in, posting a series of critiques on X that same day. Catalini summed up the report with the analogy:
“Think: writing parking regulations for a fleet of self‑driving drones — earnest work, two technological leaps behind.”
Unwary travellers returning from the EU risk having their sandwiches and local delicacies, such as cheese, confiscated as they enter the UK.
The luggage in which they are carrying their goodies may also be seized and destroyed – and if Border Force catch them trying to smuggle meat or dairy products without a declaration, they could face criminal charges.
This may or may not be bureaucratic over-reaction.
It’s certainly just another of the barriers EU and UK authorities are busily throwing up between each other and their citizens – at a time when political leaders keep saying the two sides should be drawing together in the face of Donald Trump’s attacks on European trade and security.
Image: Keir Starmer’s been embarking on a reset with European leaders. Pic: Reuters
The ban on bringing back “cattle, sheep, goat, and pig meat, as well as dairy products, from EU countries into Great Britain for personal use” is meant “to protect the health of British livestock, the security of farmers, and the UK’s food security.”
There are bitter memories of previous outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in this country, in 1967 and 2001.
In 2001, there were more than 2,000 confirmed cases of infection resulting in six million sheep and cattle being destroyed. Footpaths were closed across the nation and the general election had to be delayed.
In the EU this year, there have been five cases confirmed in Slovakia and four in Hungary. There was a single outbreak in Germany in January, though Defra, the UK agriculture department, says that’s “no longer significant”.
Image: Authorities carry disinfectant near a farm in Dunakiliti, Hungary. Pic: Reuters
Better safe than sorry?
None of the cases of infection are in the three most popular countries for UK visitors – Spain, France, and Italy – now joining the ban. Places from which travellers are most likely to bring back a bit of cheese, salami, or chorizo.
Could the government be putting on a show to farmers that it’s on their side at the price of the public’s inconvenience, when its own measures on inheritance tax and failure to match lost EU subsidies are really doing the farming community harm?
Many will say it’s better to be safe than sorry, but the question remains whether the ban is proportionate or even well targeted on likely sources of infection.
Image: No more gourmet chorizo brought back from Spain for you. File pic: iStock
A ‘Brexit benefit’? Don’t be fooled
The EU has already introduced emergency measures to contain the disease where it has been found. Several thousand cattle in Hungary and Slovenia have been vaccinated or destroyed.
The UK’s ability to impose the ban is not “a benefit of Brexit”. Member nations including the UK were perfectly able to ban the movement of animals and animal products during the “mad cow disease” outbreak in the 1990s, much to the annoyance of the British government of the day.
Since leaving the EU, England, Scotland and Wales are no longer under EU veterinary regulation.
Northern Ireland still is because of its open border with the Republic. The latest ban does not cover people coming into Northern Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey, or the Isle of Man.
Rather than introducing further red tape of its own, the British government is supposed to be seeking closer “alignment” with the EU on animal and vegetable trade – SPS or “sanitary and phytosanitary” measures, in the jargon.
Image: A ban on cheese? That’s anything but cracking. Pic: iStock
UK can’t shake ties to EU
The reasons for this are obvious and potentially make or break for food producers in this country.
The EU is the recipient of 67% of UK agri-food exports, even though this has declined by more than 5% since Brexit.
The introduction of full, cumbersome, SPS checks has been delayed five times but are due to come in this October. The government estimates the cost to the industry will be £330m, food producers say it will be more like £2bn.
With Brexit, the UK became a “third country” to the EU, just like the US or China or any other nation. The UK’s ties to the European bloc, however, are much greater.
Half of the UK’s imports come from the EU and 41% of its exports go there. The US is the UK’s single largest national trading partner, but still only accounts for around 17% of trade, in or out.
The difference in the statistics for travellers are even starker – 77% of trips abroad from the UK, for business, leisure or personal reasons, are to EU countries. That is 66.7 million visits a year, compared to 4.5 million or 5% to the US.
And that was in 2023, before Donald Trump and JD Vance’s hostile words and actions put foreign visitors off.
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1:40
Trump: ‘Europe is free-loading’
More bureaucratic botheration
Meanwhile, the UK and the EU are making travel between them more bothersome for their citizens and businesses.
This October, the EU’s much-delayed EES or Entry Exit System is due to come into force. Every foreigner will be required to provide biometric information – including fingerprints and scans – every time they enter or leave the Schengen area.
From October next year, visitors from countries including the UK will have to be authorised in advance by ETIAS, the European Travel and Authorisation System. Applications will cost seven euros and will be valid for three years.
Since the beginning of this month, European visitors to the UK have been subject to similar reciprocal measures. They must apply for an ETA, an Electronic Travel Authorisation. This lasts for two years or until a passport expires and costs £16.
The days of freedom of movement for people, goods, and services between the UK and its neighbours are long gone.
The British economy has lost out and British citizens and businesses suffer from greater bureaucratic botheration.
Nor has immigration into the UK gone down since leaving the EU. The numbers have actually gone up, with people from Commonwealth countries, including India, Pakistan and Nigeria, more than compensating for EU citizens who used to come and go.
Image: Editor’s note: Hands off my focaccia sandwiches with prosciutto! Pic: iStock
Will European reset pay off?
The government is talking loudly about the possible benefits of a trade “deal” with Trump’s America.
Meanwhile, minister Nick Thomas Symonds and the civil servant Mike Ellam are engaged in low-profile negotiations with Europe – which could be of far greater economic and social significance.
The public will have to wait to see what progress is being made at least until the first-ever EU-UK summit, due to take place on 19 May this year.
Hard-pressed British food producers and travellers – not to mention young people shut out of educational opportunities in Europe – can only hope that Sir Keir Starmer considers their interests as positively as he does sucking up to the Trump administration.