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The recent history of the Iowa Republican caucus offers the candidates chasing former President Donald Trump one big reason for optimism. But that history also presents them with an even larger reason for concern.

In each of the past three contested GOP nomination fights, Iowa Republicans have rejected the candidate considered the national front-runner in the race, as Trump is now. Instead, in each of those three past caucuses, Iowa Republicans delivered victory to an alternative who relied primarily on support from the states powerful bloc of evangelical Christian conservatives.

Read: The GOP primary is a field of broken dreams

But each of those three recent Iowa winners failed to capture the Republican presidential nomination or, in the end, even to come very close. All three of them were eventually defeated, handily, by the front-runner that they beat in Iowa. That pattern played out in 2008 when Mike Huckabee won Iowa but then lost the nomination to John McCain, in 2012 when Rick Santorum won Iowa but lost the nomination to Mitt Romney, and in 2016 when Ted Cruz won Iowa but lost the nomination to Trump. Not since George W. Bush in 2000, and before him Bob Dole in 1996, has the winner of the Iowa caucus gone on to become the GOP nominee.

That record frames the stakes for this round of the Iowa caucus, which will begin the GOP nominating process next January 15. Beating Trump in Iowa remains central to any hope of denying him the nomination. Among Trump skeptics, there is a widespread belief that Iowa is more crucial than ever, because if Trump wins here, he will be your nominee; hell run the table, as Bob Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of The Family Leader, an Iowa-based social-conservative organization, told me in an interview last week.

But even if Trump is defeated in the caucus, this recent history suggests that he will still be a strong favorite for the nomination if Iowa Republicans do not choose an alternative stronger than Huckabee, Santorum, or Cruz proved to be. The conundrum for the candidates chasing Trump is that the strategy that probably offers the best chance of upsetting him in Iowamaximizing support among evangelical-Christian conservativesalso creates the greatest risk of limiting their appeal and making it harder to beat him in most later states.

Although focusing on evangelical conservatives can deliver victory in Iowa, if the campaign youre running is only aimed at those people its hard to put together a coalition big enough to win the nomination overall, says Dave Kochel, an Iowa Republican strategist.

As they watched the candidates shake hands at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines last week, local political observers and national reporters debated the usual questions: Who is collecting the most endorsements? Who has built the strongest grassroots organization? Who has the most supporters passionate enough to turn out on a cold night next January? But the largest question looming for Republicans may be whether the road to success in the Iowa caucus has become a path to ultimate failure in the GOP presidential-nominating process.

The common problem for Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz was that even on the night they won Iowa, the results demonstrated that the base of support they had attracted was too narrow to win the nomination. Entrance polls conducted of voters heading into the Iowa caucuses found that each man finished well ahead among voters who identified as evangelical Christians. But all three failed to win among voters in Iowa who did not identify as evangelicals.

That math worked in Iowa because evangelical Christians constitute such a large share of its GOP votersalmost two-thirds in some surveys. But each mans weakness with the Iowa voters who were not evangelicals prefigured crippling problems in other states. The difficulties started just days later in New Hampshire, which has few evangelicals. Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz were all routed in New Hampshire; none of them attracted as much as 12 percent of the total vote.

The divergent results in Iowa and New Hampshire set the mold for what followed. All three men were competitive in other states with sizable evangelical populations. But none could generate much traction in the larger group of states where those voters were a smaller share of the GOP electorate. In the end, neither Huckabee, Santorum, nor Cruz won more than a dozen states.

Kedron Bardwell, a political scientist at Simpson College, south of Des Moines, says this history makes clear that Iowa Republican voters, especially evangelicals, have never placed much priority on finding candidates that they think can go the distance to the nomination. I look at those past winners and think voters were saying, We are expressing our conservative Christian values and not so much worrying about what will happen after that, Bardwell told me.

Vander Plaats predicts that will change in this election; the eventual failure of these earlier Iowa winners favored by evangelicals, he told me, will make local activists more conscious of choosing a candidate who has the national infrastructure and capacity to go beyond Iowa. Yet financial and organizational resources arent the only, or perhaps even the most important, measures of which Republican is best-positioned to convert an Iowa win into a lasting national challenge to Trump.

Even if someone topples Trump in Iowa with strong support from evangelicals, the key measure of their long-term viability will be whether they can attract a significant share of non-evangelicals. In fact, according to past entrance polls, the candidate who won the most support among the Iowa voters who are not evangelicals has captured the GOP nomination in all but one contested race since 1996. (The lone exception came in 2008, when John McCain, the eventual winner, did not compete in Iowa, and those voters mostly backed Mitt Romney.)

Kochel told me that the best way to understand the formula that might allow another candidate to overtake Trump in enough states to win the nomination is to consider the candidates who finished just above and behind him in the 2016 Iowa caucus: Cruz and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

If you want to put it in 2016 terms, particularly with Trump looming so large, you really need the Cruz-plus-Rubio coalition, Kochel said. You need the Santorum/Huckabee/Cruz supporters, Christians as defined by people like Vander Plaats. But then you also need the Rubio coalition: Ankeny soccer moms and old-school Republicans, college-educated non-evangelicals. Thats the coalition that can win a nomination.

Can any of Trumps rivals assemble such a coalition to threaten him, in Iowa and beyond? His following in the state remains passionate, as his exultant reception at the state fair last weekend demonstrated. And though hes campaigned in the state considerably less than his leading rivals, Trump held a big lead in the recent New York Times/Siena College poll of Iowa Republican voters. That survey showed Trump leading among evangelicals and non-evangelicals, largely on the strength of a dominant advantage among the likely caucus-goers in both groups without a college degree.

But there may be a bigger group of Iowa Republicans willing to consider an alternative to Trump than polls now indicate. Its not scientific, but my conversations with likely caucus-attenders at the fair last week found a surprising number expressing exhaustion with him.

Although they liked Trumps performance as president, and mostly felt that he was being unfairly prosecuted, several told me they believed that he had alienated too many voters to win another general election, and they were ready for a different choice that might have a better chance of beating President Joe Biden. He did the best he could for four years, but he didnt win again, and were done with it, were done, Mary Kinney, a retired office manager in Des Moines, told me. Later that afternoon, at a Story County Republican Party dinner headlined by Senator Tim Scott, Steve Goodhue, an insurance broker in Ames, looked around the crowded room and told me,Even though Trump is leading in the polls in Iowa, this shows you people are interested in alternatives.

Trying to reach those voters ready to move past Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is putting the most time and money into building a traditional Iowa organization. His campaign staff and the Never Back Down Super PAC that is organizing most of his ground game in the state both include key veterans of Cruzs 2016 winning caucus effort. DeSantis has committed to visiting all 99 Iowa counties (whats called a full Grassley in honor of the states Republican Senator Charles Grassley, who makes a similar tour every year), and his supporters have already recruited caucus chairs in every county as well.

DeSantis has announced endorsements from more than three dozen state legislators, including State Senate President Amy Sinclair. Thats much more than any other candidate. Look at what the state of Florida has been doing, and look at what the state of Iowa through our legislature has been doing, Sinclair told me, citing parental rights, school choice, cuts in government spending, and a six-week ban on abortion. Weve been working on all of the same things, so when Governor DeSantis steps into the presidential race and says, I have a vision for the nation, and that vision is what weve done in Florida, well, thats the same vision that the folks in Iowa have had.

Many leading Iowa social conservatives also appear likely to coalesce around DeSantis. Steve Deace, an Iowa conservative-media commentator, endorsed him earlier this month, and in our conversation, Vander Plaats seemed headed that way too. Each had backed Cruz in 2016.

All of this shows how many Iowa Republican power brokers consider DeSantis the most likely to become the principal alternative to Trump. DeSantis also polled second to Trump in that New York Times/Siena College Iowa survey. But my conversations at the fair failed to find anyone particularly interested in him. Several of those looking for options beyond Trump said they found DeSantis too much like the former president in his combative temperament and style.

Craig Robinson, the former state Republican political director, says he believes that DeSantis, by running so hard to the right on social issues, has already boxed himself into the same corner as Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz, with little chance to reach out beyond evangelicals to the economically focused suburban Republicans who liked Rubio and Romney. When DeSantis entered the race, Robinson says, he could have appealed to the Republicans who are sick of the bullshit and dont want all the extras that come with Trump. Then hes run a campaign about Disney and all this woke stuff, and all hes done is make himself as controversial as Trump.

Helen Lewis: The humiliation of Ron DeSantis

DeSantiss positioning has created an opening among the Iowa Republicans uneasy about Trump that Tim Scott looks best positioned to fill. The senator may be developing a more effective formula than DeSantis for appealing to both evangelical social conservatives and more socially moderate, suburban economic conservatives. Unlike DeSantis or former Vice President Mike Pence, Scott doesnt hammer away at social issues in a way likely to alienate suburban Republicans. Instead, he connects with evangelical Republicans through his testimony about the importance of religious faith in his own life, and the way in which he organically and authentically weaves Bible phrases into his conversation. As several Iowa Republicans told me, Scott speaks evangelical in a way DeSantis does not.

Still, Scotts campaign message so far is bland, focused primarily on his personal story of ascending from poverty. The senators unwavering refusal to challenge or criticize Trump has left the impression among some activists that he is really running for vice president. So long as Scott fuels that perception by refusing to contrast himself with Trump, Vander Plaats predicted, his poll numbers will not move, and his caucus support will not be there.

The caucus is now less than five months away, but in earlier years, this final stretch often produced rapid shifts in fortune. Bardwell, the political scientist, notes that five different candidates led polls at some point leading up to the 2012 caucus before Santorum finally edged past Romney at the wire. Iowa social conservatives have frequently coalesced behind their favorite late in the race. The choice those evangelical Christian voters make this winter will likely determine whether Iowa sets Trump on an unstoppable course to another nomination or anoints an alternative who might seriously challenge him.

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NAYG lawsuit against Galaxy was ‘lawfare, pure and simple’ — Scaramucci

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<div>NAYG lawsuit against Galaxy was ‘lawfare, pure and simple' — Scaramucci</div>

<div>NAYG lawsuit against Galaxy was ‘lawfare, pure and simple' — Scaramucci</div>

The New York State Attorney General’s (NAYG) recent legal action against Galaxy Digital over its promotional ties to the now-collapsed cryptocurrency Terra (LUNA) was unfair and an abuse of the legal system, says SkyBridge Capital and founder Anthony Scaramucci.

“It’s LAWFARE, pure and simple due to an obscure but dangerously powerful New York law known as the Martin Act,” Scaramucci said in a March 28 X post.

Martin Law can “open the door for abuse”

“The law has no need to prove intent, creating a low standard of proof that can open the door for abuse like this. It shouldn’t exist,” he said.

New York’s Martin Act is one of the US’s strictest anti-fraud and securities laws, allowing prosecutors the power to pursue financial fraud cases without needing to prove intent. The NAYG alleged that Galaxy Digital violated the Martin Act over its alleged promotion of Terra, with Galaxy Digital agreeing to a $200 million settlement.

According to NAYG documents filed on March 24, Galaxy Digital acquired 18.5 million LUNA tokens at a 30% discount in October 2020, then promoted them before selling them without abiding by disclosure rules. 

Scaramucci reiterated that Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz was under the impression everything he was saying about Luna was true, as he had been deceived by Terraform Labs and its former CEO, Do Kwon.

Law, New York, United States, Terra

Source: Amanda Fischer

Meanwhile, MoonPay president of enterprise, Keith Grossman, said he had never heard of the Martin Act and had to look it up using AI chatbot ChatGPT.

“It is so broad and essentially is the essence of lawfare,” Grossman said. “Sorry you got caught in the crosshairs of it, Mike,” he added.

Related: Sonic unveils high-yield algorithmic stablecoin, reigniting Terra-Luna ‘PTSD’

The filing alleged that Galaxy helped a “little-known” token, referring to LUNA, increase its market price from $0.31 in October 2020 to $119.18 in April 2022 while “profiting in the hundreds of millions of dollars.”

Asset manager and investor Anthony Pompliano said he isn’t familiar with the details of the lawsuit but vouched for Novogratz, calling him a “good man” who has devoted a lot of time and money to helping others.

The Terra collapse is one of the crypto industry’s most infamous failures. In March 2024, SEC attorney Devon Staren said in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York that Terra was a “house of cards” that collapsed for investors in 2022.

Magazine: Arbitrum co-founder skeptical of move to based and native rollups: Steven Goldfeder

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Betts revels in walk-off HR after emotional week

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Betts revels in walk-off HR after emotional week

LOS ANGELES — Mookie Betts watched his drive sail over Dodger Stadium’s left-field fence late Friday night, and the emotions spilled out of him as if he had delivered a walk-off in October, not March. An emphatic raised finger was followed by a forceful fist bump, then an emphatic toss of his helmet and a deafening roar as he pranced toward his teammates at home plate.

Betts hadn’t just sent the Los Angeles Dodgers to an 8-5, come-from-behind victory over the Detroit Tigers on the same day their World Series rings were distributed. He hadn’t just given the Dodgers their first 4-0 start to a season since 1981. He had done so in the wake of a debilitating illness that caused him to shed almost 20 pounds and often made him wonder if he could muster the energy to provide moments like this.

“That was super special,” Betts said. “I know it sounds super selfish, but more for me. I was really proud of myself for coming in and playing underweight. Not that it’s a big deal playing underweight, but just the fight that I’ve kind of been through — the ups and downs, and the nights I’m just crying because I’m sick, and my wife’s there holding me. That’s where the emotion comes from.”

As the Dodgers prepared to fly to Japan and begin their season last week, Betts, who had spent the past four months pouring himself into the arduous task of becoming an everyday shortstop, struggled to keep food down.

He didn’t play in either of the team’s first two regular-season games against the Chicago Cubs from Tokyo Dome and was instead sent home early. He was supposed to play in the Dodgers’ exhibition opener against the Los Angeles Angels the ensuing Sunday, but he was a late scratch. Vomiting persisted. By that point, Betts’ weight had dropped from 175 pounds to 157.

But a day later, Betts started to turn a corner. He played five-and-a-half innings in the Dodgers’ exhibition finale Tuesday, then faced live pitching during the off day Wednesday. By the time the home opener came around roughly 24 hours later, Betts was back to feeling like his normal self. And on Friday, he made his presence felt.

With one out in the sixth, Betts recorded just the second hit off former Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty, then came around to score on Freddie Freeman‘s tying two-run homer. In the bottom of the eighth, he hit what would have been the game-winning home run had the Tigers not come back to tie the score in the top of the ninth.

In the 10th, Betts capped a five-run inning by coming up with runners on second and third and the score tied, working the count full against Beau Brieske, then turning on a low changeup and sending it 376 feet.

“Just given what he’s been under the last couple weeks, and still to go out there and be ready, and not be 100 percent, and still give us everything he has, coming up huge — I can’t say enough about Mookie,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said.

Betts is just the second player to hit multiple go-ahead homers in the eighth inning or later since the franchise moved to L.A. 67 years ago, according to ESPN Research. The other was Andre Ethier, who did the same on Aug. 2, 2015 — at about four inches taller and roughly 50 pounds heavier.

“I didn’t lose much strength, relative for my weight,” said Betts, who has since regained eight pounds but would still like to add another eight more. “I’m still pretty strong. But obviously as you add on more weight you can add on more strength. Right now I’m just having fun hitting 160-pound homers.”

Betts’ homer capped an epic two-day stretch for a Dodgers team that opened its season more than 5,000 miles away and is still coming off the high of its first full-season championship since 1988.

On Thursday, iconic rapper Ice Cube drove a Dodger Blue Chevy Bel-Air along Dodger Stadium’s foul territory with the World Series trophy strapped to the passenger seat, then brought it onto the field with the team lined up along the third-base line. On Friday, each of the Dodgers’ coaches and players walked onto a makeshift stage by the pitcher’s mound to receive gaudy championship rings decorated with 343 diamonds and 129 sapphires.

Amid all the pomp and circumstance, the 2025 Dodgers, seen as one of the most talented teams ever assembled, continued to win. They breezed past the Cubs in Japan without Betts and Freeman, then came back to the United States and snuck past the Tigers thanks in large part to a pitching staff that stranded 11 baserunners. On Friday, they fell behind twice and kept coming back.

“It kind of feels like we’re just picking up where we left off last year,” Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy said. “There’s still a whole lot of fight on this team. There’s no give up.”

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Science

NASA to Launch Three Rockets in Alaska to Study Auroral Substorms’ Impact

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NASA to Launch Three Rockets in Alaska to Study Auroral Substorms’ Impact

An important mission is set to take place in Alaska. It aims to understand how auroral substorms impact the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Three rockets will be launched within a short window to observe the movement of air and changes in composition at high altitudes. Scientists seek to determine whether the heat from auroras causes vertical movement or if waves spread the energy across a wider area. The findings could improve space weather forecasting, which is crucial for satellites and communication systems.

Study Objective and Launch Plan

According to the reports from the experiment titled Auroral Waves Excited by Substorm Onset Magnetic Events (AWESOME), the rockets will be launched from Poker Flat Research Range. The facility, located 20 miles north of Fairbanks, is managed by the University of Alaska Fairbanks under a NASA contract. The launch window is open from 24 March to April 6.

A four-stage rocket and two two-stage rockets will be used. The first two will release tracers at specific altitudes to study wind movement. The third rocket will release vapour tracers at five different altitudes. The tracers, in pink, blue and white, should be visible for up to 20 minutes. Ground cameras will capture the data under specific lighting conditions.

Scientific Goals and Observations

Mark Conde, a space physics professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, leads the project. The experiment aims to determine how auroras affect air movement. One theory suggests vertical convection plays a key role, while another proposes that acoustic-buoyancy waves cause a broader atmospheric impact. The research could reshape current understanding and refine space weather models.

A team of graduate researchers will monitor the launches from various sites in Alaska, including Utqiagvik, Kaktovik, and Toolik Lake. The results may provide better insights into how auroral events alter atmospheric conditions and influence satellite-dependent technology.

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