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Written by Kyle Bonagura, Adam Rittenberg, Paolo Uggetti

The Pac-12 has been reduced to embers after college sports’ latest round of realignment, and there is a natural temptation to assign blame. There’s a lot to go around: terrible leadership, bad timing, regional apathy and a lengthy list of poor, pivotal decisions. The conference’s consistent lack of relevance in the College Football Playoff picture exacerbated things and its reputation suffered as a result.

Just don’t blame the quarterbacks.

Through all that went wrong, there is one problem the Pac-12 has never been credibly accused of having, and that is an inability to deliver a fantastically entertaining product on a game-by-game basis. In an era that rewards conferences for competitive inequity, the Pac-12 delivered parity. An unforgivable sin, as it turned out.

There are no good reasons to believe this won’t be the final season of Pac-12 football. If by some stretch of luck the conference finds a way to exist, it will be unrecognizable.

The cruel irony is that while the Pac-12 is a business failure more than anything else, the product it has going into 2023 should be as valuable as any in college football. There are good teams — five are ranked in the top 18 of the preseason AP poll — but the uniqueness is in the talented collection of quarterbacks.

The group features the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, last year’s NCAA FBS leading passer (yards per game), a two-time Pac-12 champion, a Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award finalist, a former Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, a former No. 1 overall QB recruit and two former Walter Payton Award finalists.

“It will make you pull your hair out,” Washington defensive coordinator William Inge said.

Not only does it project as the best group of signal-callers, few — if any — conferences in college football history have ever had a group as accomplished as this one going into a season.

For half a century, the conference has been a standard bearer for quarterback play. It helped launch the careers for a long list of future NFL stars, including John Elway, Aaron Rodgers, Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, Drew Bledsoe and many others.

So, like it has for so long, the Conference of Champions is going out passing.


The stats behind an impressive 2023 class

Let’s start with the obvious: USC quarterback Caleb Williams is set to become the ninth quarterback to play college football as the reigning Heisman winner.

During Williams’ incredible 2022 season, he led the nation in QBR and was second among Power 5 quarterbacks with 4,537 passing yards. No. 1? Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., who threw for 4,641 yards in one fewer game.

Penix tossed 31 touchdown passes — second in the Pac-12 last season behind Williams — but his 60 career touchdown passes rank just fifth among ESPN’s projected Pac-12 starters. Two of those players — Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders (70) and Washington State‘s Cameron Ward (94) — started their careers in the FCS before moving up a level. The other two are Williams (63) and Oregon‘s Bo Nix (68).

Notably behind Penix on the career TD passing charts: Cameron Rising (46), who has led Utah to back-to-back conference titles and was the All-Pac-12 first-team quarterback selection in 2021.

In all, nine quarterbacks have at least 20 career touchdown passes with Arizona‘s Jayden de Laura (53), Oregon State‘s DJ Uiagalelei (36) and Arizona State‘s Drew Pyne (24) all having previous stretches of success.

Collectively, and accounting for glaring inexperience at Cal, Stanford and UCLA, the conference averages 43.1 passing career touchdowns per projected starting quarterback to begin the season. That is, by far, the highest number of a single conference since 2005, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Only three other groups came into a season averaging at least 33: the 2015 Pac-12, the 2008 Big 12 and the 2014 Pac-12.

“The thing I like about it is it’s not just a group of guys that threw for a bunch of yards and touchdowns,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said. “Most of these guys have won and a lot of them won double-digit games. So it’s success in terms of winning games too, not just statistical. You had a couple guys that came back that could have went to the NFL.”

Last year, Williams, Nix, Rising and Penix — along with since-departed UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson — made for one of the best top-five quarterback groups in recent years. Their average QBR of 84.1 ranks fifth among any single conference’s best five quarterbacks since 2005, and for four of them to return is unprecedented.

“They’re super talented and they’ve been coached by really good offensive minds,” first-year ASU coach Kenny Dillingham said. “So the combination of having really good offensive coordinators in this league attracts really good quarterbacks.

“I don’t think it’s by accident that you have all this talent.”

Added up, it comes close to warranting a hyperbolic question: Can this be the best collection of quarterbacks, ever? We’ll see.


A star-studded history

The Pac-12’s past is filled with quarterbacks who either produced historic college careers or went on to have storied seasons in the NFL. Or, in the case of several of them, both.

Allow Chip Kelly to give you a history lesson.

“That’s the one thing that’s always intriguing about this league is it’s always been great quarterbacks,” Kelly, now the head coach at UCLA, said at Pac-12 media day. “Going back to [UCLA’s] Gary Beban, [Oregon State’s] Terry Baker winning the Heisman trophies in the ’60s, and you go on to all the great quarterbacks USC had, and then Troy Aikman is the No. 1 pick of the draft. The Stanford quarterbacks from [Jim] Plunkett to [Andrew] Luck to the [Oregon QBs] Joey Harrington, Marcus Mariota, the list goes on and on.”

From 2007 to 2012, Kelly patrolled the sidelines at Autzen Stadium as an offensive coordinator and then as head coach at Oregon, watching some of the best quarterbacks in the sport face the Ducks. There was, of course, Luck, who was one of the most prolific and efficient quarterbacks the conference had ever seen on his way to being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft.

Down at USC, there was Mark Sanchez, who would go on to be the fifth pick in the 2009 draft, and Matt Barkley, who both followed in the footsteps of other USC elites like Matt Leinart, the 10th overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft and Heisman winner that year. And there was Carson Palmer, who took home the Heisman in 2002. The Trojans’ history extends well past those names, back to when Rodney Peete put up prolific numbers in the ’80s on his way to a Johnny Unitas award and All-American honors.

Across town and over the years, UCLA countered with not just Beban and Aikman, but with Cade McNown in the ’90s and Brett Hundley in the 2010s. Hundley held the record for most touchdowns by a UCLA quarterback until last year, when Thompson-Robinson broke the record.

At Oregon, Dan Fouts was a star for the Ducks in the 1970s (All-Pac-8 in 1972). He went on to lead the NFL in passing four times and was on the NFL’s All-Decade team for the 1980s. Kelly eventually got his own elite quarterback, too, at Oregon. In his last year, his recruiting prowess paid off as the quarterback he brought in to Eugene from Honolulu burst onto the scene as a star. Mariota led the Ducks to a 12-1 record that season as well as a Fiesta Bowl win and a No. 2 overall ranking in the country. Mariota won the bowl game’s MVP award to cap off a remarkable freshman season that put him on the path toward being the Heisman winner in 2014 and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft.

If Kelly’s first time coaching in the conference represented a peak in talented quarterback play, we’re now seeing it again, but the history books display an even deeper showcase of how much the conference and its teams have produced greatness at the position.

“The best indicator of the future is the past,” Oregon head coach Dan Lanning said.

For several Pac-12 quarterbacks, the success has continued as they have transitioned to the NFL, or in some cases, their success has come once they left college. After winning the Heisman in 1970 and being at the forefront of the pro-style offense revolution in what was then the Pac-8, Stanford’s Plunkett went on to win two Super Bowls with the the Raiders. Meanwhile, his fellow Cardinal John Elway won the Super Bowl twice with the Broncos after a largely unremarkable college career that is perhaps best known for “The Play” which Elway was on the losing end of in 1982.

UCLA’s Aikman won three rings with the Cowboys, Washington State’s Mark Rypien won his Super Bowl in 1992 while Cal’s Aaron Rodgers won his lone Super Bowl with the Packers in 2011. Even Nick Foles, who spent a year at Arizona, went on to get a ring of his own in 2018.

For a program like Washington, they may not boast a Super Bowl winner, but its pedigree may be just as good with quarterbacks like Warren Moon, Mark Brunell, Jake Locker and Brock Huard leading the Huskies at various times over the years.

“Every school has had [a great crop of QBs],” Kelly said. “It’s always been that way.”

Quarterback performances have also marked some of the conference’s greatest moments. The Pac-12’s After Dark affairs almost always were high-scoring, back-and-forth games where a quarterback has an out-of-body performance.

Take Connor Halliday for example. The Washington State QB may have peaked in Pullman on an October night in 2014 where he threw for a single-game record 734 passing yards on 70 passing attempts. Somehow his output and six touchdowns were not enough to get the Cougars the win because, on the other side, Cal’s Jared Goff threw for over 500 passing yards and five touchdowns himself, giving his team a 60-59 win. Five years later, Wazzu’s Anthony Gordon and UCLA’s Thompson-Robinson would combine for 1,077 passing yards and 14 touchdowns on their way to a historic 67-63 Bruins win in Pullman.

It’s not just the Elways, the Aikmans and the Leinarts. The Pac-12 has been a hotbed for more than just quarterback stardom, it’s been a home for quarterback phenomena, be it one for a single season, a single game or even a single play. Ask every Arizona fan what they remember about Khalil Tate, and they’ll likely mention the 2017 night when he came off the bench, ran for an FBS-record 327 yards, passed for 142 yards and scored five touchdowns. It’s why USC fans may recognize the school’s iconic quarterback history and still have a greater affinity for a single-season performance like the one Sam Darnold had in 2016 when he went from backup to Rose Bowl-winning starter. Or it’s why an ASU fan can wax poetic about Jake Plummer’s 1996 run as he led the Sun Devils to their only Rose Bowl appearance in the past 26 years or Brock Osweiler’s 4,000-yard season in 2011, too.

Still, despite the conference’s star-studded history at the position or its plethora of signature moments involving quarterbacks, this year’s crew, on paper, is on another level. For those who return, their success is also indicative of the offensive explosion the conference has experienced in recent years. Last year, the Pac-12 had six of the top 25 offenses (per offensive EPA per game) in the country, continuing a trend that isn’t so much about having bad defenses as much as it is having to deal with explosive offenses.

“It makes games fun,” Williams said. “I’ve been in those moments where you try and dominate and play your best and when you got someone on the other side, you don’t dive into their game too much, but you do know that the other person is over there.”

Fun isn’t necessarily how a defensive coordinator would describe it.

“It’s exciting,” Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi said. “We’re possibly going to line up every single week and be competing against an NFL quarterback in this conference. … I love it. Wouldn’t want it any other way.”

Kelly is part of the group that’s ushering the next crop of great Pac-12 (er, West Coast) quarterbacks again. The Bruins have one of the most intriguing freshman QBs not just in the conference, but in the entire country in Dante Moore.

The Michigan product has yet to play a snap in the college game, yet talk of him starting under center for the Bruins is rampant. UCLA is one of the few teams in the conference that doesn’t have an established quarterback, but is boasting a competition at the position that runs four quarterbacks deep who could all take the field come the opening game.

Whoever takes the field for Kelly’s team may not matter when people look back on this upcoming season of the Pac-12. It will likely be remembered for being the last full season of the conference’s 12-team constituents, but once things kick off in late August, what could transpire on the field in the next four months could be historic for quarterback play alone.

For a conference that’s been defined by that position, it would be a fitting finish.


Scouting this year’s QBs

This year’s Pac-12 quarterback class stands out not only for its overall production but its diversity in styles and strengths. The main connective tissue is the transfer portal, as eight of the league’s virtually guaranteed starters began their college careers elsewhere, including Williams (Oklahoma), Penix (Indiana), Bo Nix (Auburn) and Cameron Rising (Texas).

Several made their moves with familiar coaches in mind. Williams played for Riley at OU in 2021. Penix and Nix linked up with coaches who had previously been their offensive coordinators in Kalen DeBoer (Indiana) and Dillingham (Auburn). Sanders followed his father from Jackson State to Colorado. Ward went with Eric Morris from Incarnate Word to Washington State, where Morris served as OC for a year before becoming North Texas’ coach.

“They’re all a little different, of course, and the offenses all fit them well,” Cal coach Justin Wilcox said. “There’s no square peg into a round hole. Penix is so accurate, and Nix gives you a little bit of everything. He does a lot at the line of scrimmage. He can get out of trouble, he can run it and he can throw it. Caleb won the Heisman trophy. So, so calm in the pocket, got such command and he’s very good when things are on time. And then if he needs to extend the play, he can because he’s got the athleticism.”

If Williams has his way, however, it’ll be less running and more passing.

“I don’t want to run at all,” he said. “That’s what we went and got recruits for and more running backs and more wide receivers and more O-linemen. So I can do my job and just stand back there … my job is to get it to ’em. Their job is to make special things happen with it.”

The Pac-12’s biggest names need no introduction, but the league’s layers of quarterbacks — and how they approach the game — are worth reviewing as the season nears. Here are quick scouting reports of the projected starters for the league’s top teams, and a look at the best of the rest.

Caleb Williams, USC

ESPN recruiting rating: No. 1 dual-threat QB, No. 16 overall recruit in 2021 class
Original school: Oklahoma
2022 stats/accolades: Heisman Trophy, Maxwell Award, AP Player of the Year, Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year; set USC single-season records for total offense (4,919 yards), passing yards (4,537), passing touchdowns (42), completions (333) and other categories.
NFL draft outlook: Projected No. 1 overall pick

Scouting report: Williams came into the Pac-12 with plenty of buzz, following Riley from Oklahoma to USC after replacing starter Spencer Rattler with the Sooners as a true freshman in 2021. Although he put together the best statistical passing season in USC history, a program rich in elite quarterback play, Pac-12 coaches were especially impressed with his ability to extend plays. Williams finished second nationally in completions of 20 yards or longer (69). A Pac-12 defensive coordinator described Williams capitalizing on “non-normal plays,” where he would buy enough time for coverage to loosen than attack for big gains. Another Pac-12 defensive coordinator noted that USC’s offensive line could be better in 2023 than 2022, which would allow Williams to operate more in the pocket while maintaining his ability to create.

Michael Penix Jr., Washington

ESPN recruiting rating: Three stars, no national rating, No. 40 pocket passer in 2018 class
Original school: Indiana
2022 stats/accolades: AP Comeback Player of the Year, second-team All-Pac-12, Manning Award finalist; led the FBS in passing average (357 ypg) and ranked second in passing yards (4,641), while setting single-season team records for passing yards and total offense.
NFL draft outlook: Day 3 because of injury history while at Indiana

Scouting report: Penix’s breakout season at Washington wasn’t surprising to Big Ten coaches who watched him help Indiana to a No. 12 AP finish in 2020. He ultimately needed a system fit and got it with DeBoer, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and even tight ends coach Nick Sheridan, who followed DeBoer as OC at Indiana. Penix also needed protection because of his injury history. Washington defensive coordinator William Inge, who also was with Penix and DeBoer at Indiana, told ESPN that Penix reached out about coming to the Huskies with the plea: “Coach, all I need is some protection, with an offensive line.” Penix took only five sacks in 2022 despite 554 pass attempts, No. 4 nationally. He will have top tackles Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten back this fall. Pac-12 coaches say Penix can destroy defenses with a clean pocket. “You need to get him uncomfortable,” a Pac-12 defensive coordinator said.

Bo Nix, Oregon

ESPN recruiting rating: No. 2 pocket passer, No. 23 overall recruit in 2019 class
Original school: Auburn
2022 stats/accolades: Maxwell Award semifinalist, honorable mention All-Pac-12, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award finalist; set Oregon single-season record for completion percentage (71.9) while ranking second on the team chart in completions (294) and leading FBS quarterbacks with 14 rushing touchdowns.
NFL draft outlook: Day 2. Could work way into second round with strong 2023 season

Scouting report: Nix enters his second year as Oregon’s starter and fifth in the Power 5. He has played under three head coaches and will be on his fifth offensive coordinator in Will Stein, but he clearly thrives in the fast-paced, big-play-heavy system Oregon employed in 2022. Nix’s vast experience and knowledge gives him more freedom than most college quarterbacks. “There’s no limit to what Bo is able to check if he understands the situation,” Lanning told ESPN this spring. The subplot at Oregon could be how much control the coaches give to Nix, and how Stein incorporates his ideas without adding unnecessary complexities. “In the past, he just had to run what people wanted him to run,” a Power 5 coach said. “If he doesn’t like what’s going on offensively, he will go to the head coach and make sure it’s stuff he likes.”

Cameron Rising, Utah

ESPN Recruiting rating: No. 11 pocket passer, No. 215 overall player in 2018 class
Original school: Texas
2022 stats/accolades: Semifinalist for Davey O’Brien Award and Maxwell Award, and honorable mention All-Pac-12 (first team in 2021); had career highs in passing yards (3,034), touchdowns (26) and completions (249), while adding 465 rushing yards and six touchdowns; nine games with 200 pass yards or more and eight with multiple touchdown passes.
NFL draft outlook: Undrafted free agent (ACL injury doesn’t help his stock)

Scouting report: Rising has shined in the biggest moments during Utah’s back-to-back Pac-12 title runs, especially in two wins against USC last season (725 pass yards, no interceptions, 78 rushing yards, nine total touchdowns) and two against Oregon in 2021. His numbers and traits don’t jump out as much as some of the other returning quarterbacks, but coaches respect his toughness and efficiency. Rising isn’t a volume runner, but his ability to move stood out in wins over USC and Oregon State last season. The immediate concern is his response from a torn ACL sustained in Utah’s Rose Bowl loss to Penn State. The Utes have the league’s toughest opening schedule with Florida (home) and Baylor (road). Rising’s availability and performance will be watched in those games before league play begins.

DJ Uiagalelei, Oregon State

ESPN Recruiting rating: No. 1 pocket passer and No. 43 overall in 2020 class
Original school: Clemson
2022 stats/accolades: Recorded career highs in passing yards (2,521), passing touchdowns (22), rushing yards (545) and rushing touchdowns (7), while helping Clemson to an ACC title; eclipsed 200 passing yards in each of his first seven games.
NFL draft outlook: Day 3 or undrafted free agent depending on 2023 performance

Scouting report: After losing the starting job at Clemson, Uiagalelei saw Oregon State as a place to learn a more sophisticated offense in a less-pressurized environment, where he can better prepare himself for the NFL. Coaches have taken note of his size, arm strength and emergence as an effective runner at Clemson. But a defensive coordinator who faced Uiagalelei in the ACC questioned how he’ll absorb Oregon State’s pro-style scheme, telling ESPN, “Clemson has the easiest offensive system. If you can’t succeed there, you ain’t gonna succeed anywhere.”

Elsewhere in the Pac-12 quarterback ranks, Arizona brings back de Laura, and Ward returns to Washington State. De Laura, the Pac-12’s Offensive Freshman of the Year at Washington State in 2021, is one of the more captivating players in the league, displaying a fearlessness that leads to both big plays and mistakes.

Ward, who averaged 357.5 pass yards in 2021 for FCS Incarnate Word, tries to build on a solid but not spectacular first season at Washington State, where he completed 64.4% of his passes for 3,231 yards and 23 touchdowns. Pac-12 coaches think a second year at the FBS level will help, although he’s working with a new coordinator in Ben Arbuckle, who arrived from national passing leader Western Kentucky.

“The de Laura kid is a playmaker, the Ward kid has tools,” Grubb said. “Those are guys nobody’s talking about. You’ve still got to line up. I sat up in that box and called the Arizona game and I’m like, ‘Dang, this kid [de Laura] is slinging it. He’s running around and it’s amazing.'”

Similar things could be said about Sanders, who shined at FCS Jackson State the past two seasons, before following his father Deion to Colorado. Coaches expect Colorado’s high-tempo offense under coordinator Sean Lewis to help Sanders’ transition.

Dillingham has an intriguing quarterback room at ASU featuring a veteran holdover in Trenton Bourguet, Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne (10 starts in 2022), BYU transfer Jacob Conover (ESPN’s No. 109 overall recruit in 2019) and freshman Jaden Rashada, ESPN’s No. 31 overall recruit.

ESPN’s top two recruits in the 2023 class are quarterbacks headed to Pac-12 schools (for now, at least). USC’s Malachi Nelson will wait behind Williams, but UCLA’s Moore, who initially committed to Oregon, could be a Day 1 starter. A true pocket passer, Moore isn’t the typical Kelly quarterback but boasts an arm a Power 5 coach described as “elite, elite.”

“Every team that you play, they have a quarterback who is dynamic, who is athletic, and who is premier,” Inge said. “When we were looking through the schedule, it’s like, ‘Oh, my gosh.’ There’s gonna be seven games where the quarterbacks, everybody knows who they are. It’s not, ‘Well, they run the ball all the time.’ No. The ballgame goes through the hands of the quarterback.”


Raising the caliber of QBs for all of college football

There is a giant game of musical chairs being played by quarterbacks in college football. Talented backups in the past were forced to wait their turn, now they are free to find an open seat, and even follow their former coaches who have found new gigs.

In theory, this relatively new dynamic should raise the caliber of quarterback play across the sport, as it has done for the Pac-12.

“You look at it from a defensive perspective and what we saw last year, and the jump that happened from even the 2021 season, it’s pretty obvious,” DeBoer said. “Even just looking at the statistics, of how many more passing yards there were, and the total offense. If you compare stats, I think there were six teams that were offensively at more yards per game than the top offense the year before. To me, that’s a big indicator of your quarterback play.”

From that standpoint, the Pac-12 is ahead of the national curve, and in an ordinary season, that would be a point of conference pride. A positive sign to show the conference is back on the ascend.

Instead, this season feels more like the start of a encore at the last concert before a band breaks up. It’s bittersweet. What’s about to come should be very special, but it represents the end.

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How Mikko Rantanen impacts the Stars’ Stanley Cup hopes — in 2025 and well beyond

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How Mikko Rantanen impacts the Stars' Stanley Cup hopes -- in 2025 and well beyond

Every NHL franchise would be elated to select one player who could become a franchise defenseman, a franchise forward or a franchise goaltender in a single draft class.

The Dallas Stars found all three in 2017.

Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger have developed into franchise cornerstones, which has played a significant role in the Stars becoming a perennial Stanley Cup challenger.

This is why Stars general manager Jim Nill and his front office staff have typically been averse to trading away from draft picks.

That’s also what made Nill’s decision at the trade deadline so jarring: The Stars traded a pair of first-round picks, three second-round picks and onetime prized prospect Logan Stankoven for Mikko Rantanen.

While the Stars made a statement by adding another franchise winger, the trade also signaled that the Stars are entering a new frontier — deviating from the blueprint that allowed them to be a championship contender in the first place.

“It’s two things: It’s where our team’s at, and it’s Mikko Rantanen,” Nill said. “A lot of times when you go into a trade, it’s for an older player that has two or three years left in his career.

“Mikko is in the prime of his career. He’s one of the elite power forwards in the game, and with where we’re drafting, when do you get a chance to get a player like that? Just because of unique circumstances, he was available.”

After trading for Rantanen, the Stars signed him to an eight-year contract extension worth $12 million annually. That commitment further amplifies how the Stars believe Rantanen can help them win the Stanley Cup that has eluded them since 1999.

But how did the proverbial stars align for Dallas to get Rantanen? What made the Stars comfortable moving away from the foundational strategy of draft-and-develop? And after the current playoff run, what does Rantanen’s presence mean in the short and long term?

“Of course, [trading for Rantanen] sends a message that they’re backing us with the chance that we have to do something special,” Stars defenseman Esa Lindell said. “It’s a chance to win, and that brings expectations to succeed.”


RANTANEN PLAYED FOR the division rival Colorado Avalanche throughout his career, which meant that Nill and others within the Stars’ front office had a close view of his ascent to stardom. They thought he was one of the best players in the NHL but never thought it was possible that he could be a Dallas Star.

“You’re not even looking in [Rantanen’s] direction when you’re analyzing your team and trying to make changes,” Nill said. “It was never really even an option for us.”

Until it did become an option — and even then, the Stars weren’t so sure.

When Rantanen was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes on Jan. 24, the Stars’ front office still didn’t regard him as potentially available to them because the Canes were also in a championship window.

Rantanen scored six points in 13 games for the Hurricanes. But with each week that passed without him signing a contract extension with Carolina, the speculation increased that the Hurricanes could move him again in order to avoid losing him for nothing in free agency in the summer.

“I would say about two weeks before the trade deadline, they started to make some calls just to see what the market was,” Nill said. “We were one of the teams they called to see if there was interest, and then with about a week to 10 days before the trade deadline, we said, ‘You know what? Let’s look at it,’ but still not thinking that was the direction we were going to go.”

Pragmatism remains the principle that guides Nill.

Even before the Stars could devise a trade package, they needed a number of factors to work in their favor. For instance, if Rantanen had become available last season, there was no way they could have made it work financially because of their cap situation.

This season, injuries to Tyler Seguin and Heiskanen meant the pair’s combined $18.3 million cap hit provided wiggle room. That flexibility is how the Stars were able to take on the full freight of Cody Ceci‘s and Mikael Granlund‘s contracts in a trade with the San Jose Sharks on Feb. 1.

Yet the Stars needed more help fitting Rantanen’s contract onto their books, which made the first trade with the Avs and Canes even more crucial. Rantanen, who earns $9.25 million annually, had 50% of his salary retained by the Chicago Blackhawks in that first trade, which meant he’d be joining the Stars at a team-friendly $4.625 million prorated for the rest of the season.

“A lot of factors came into play where we’re sitting there saying, ‘A year ago, we couldn’t do that because he makes this much money and we didn’t have injuries,'” Nill said. “But now that there was a different scenario? An opportunity was there to make it work, and that’s when we got more serious.”

The Stars already had a dynamic that worked, with the bulk of their core group being younger than 26. They had a seemingly annual tradition of introducing a homegrown prospect who went from promising talent to NHL contributor. It was proof their farm-to-table model worked, while also ensuring a level of cap certainty.

So what made Nill and the Stars feel like this was the time to upend that approach? Especially with some of those homegrown prospects, such as Thomas Harley and Wyatt Johnston, going from their team-friendly, entry-level deals to being significant earners on their second contracts?

“You’re not only looking at this year, but when you’re making a major commitment to a player like that trade-wise and asset-wise, you’re probably going to want to sign him,” Nill said. “That’s when we had to sit down and look at what direction we could go with our team here. We got some major players taking some pay hikes that they deserve, and that’s when we asked, ‘How can we make this fit?'”

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1:09

‘It’s nuts!’ Stars acquire Mikko Rantanen from Hurricanes

The “TradeCentre” crew gives their instant reaction to the shocking news that Mikko Rantanen has been traded to the Dallas Stars.


CHAMPIONSHIP WINDOWS DON’T last long, and there’s always change.

Just ask Robertson. Even though he’s only 25 years old, he’s an example of how much change the Stars have encountered since their streak of three conference finals in five years started in 2020.

Robertson played three regular-season games the 2019-20 season and was a taxi-squad member who never appeared in the playoffs. But technically, he’s one of only seven players on the current roster who played at least one game from that season. It’s a group that also includes Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz, Seguin, Heiskanen, Lindell and Harley. Oettinger was also a taxi-squad player but never appeared in any games in the 2020 playoff bubble.

“That next year, we didn’t make the playoffs and we kind of made a shift onto new players,” Robertson said. “It was my second year, and we were just trying to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. My third year, [head coach] Pete [DeBoer] comes in with a new staff and a lot of new players too. I don’t know what our expectations were, but we just wanted to make the playoffs.”

Nill said what allowed the Stars to transition from the Benn-Seguin era to where they are now was a farm system that provided key players on team-friendly contracts.

As those players have turned into veteran regulars, the Stars must now get creative with the cap and balance the difficult decisions that lie ahead.

While that’s a consideration every perennial title challenger faces at some point, Rantanen’s arrival accelerated that timeline for Dallas. Before the trade, the Stars were slated to enter the upcoming offseason with more than $17 million in cap space. It was more than enough to re-sign pending UFAs such as Benn and Matt Duchene, while having the space to add elsewhere in free agency, too.

And that was with Oettinger going from $4 million this season to $8.25 million over the next three years while Johnston, who was a pending restricted free agent, also signed a three-year deal carrying an annual $8.4 million cap hit.

The addition of Rantanen’s contract means the Stars will have $5.32 million in cap space, per PuckPedia. That has raised the possibility that Benn, Duchene and Evgenii Dadonov (along with Ceci and Granlund) might not be back, and that the Stars could be limited in free agency.

There’s another way to look at the Stars’ short- and long-term situation. Benn noted the fact that they are in this position lets players know that the front office believes in them so much that it was worth changing its philosophy to get Rantanen and have him in Dallas for the better part of a decade.

“I think it shows confidence in the group that we have and what we’ve been doing this year,” Benn said. “Our draft picks over the last few years have set us up to succeed. When you make a move like that for a player like Mikko, it gives your group a lot of confidence. Now it’s on us as players to take advantage of it.”

So what does that mean for Benn, who is in the final year of his contract, knowing the Stars’ cap situation ahead of next season?

“I don’t see myself playing for anybody else other than this team,” said Benn, who has played his entire 16-year career with the Stars. “Hopefully, it’ll all get figured out this summer, but I am excited for the future of the Stars.”

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Ranking the top 50 players in the Stanley Cup playoffs: Where do Hellebuyck, MacKinnon, Kucherov land?

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Ranking the top 50 players in the Stanley Cup playoffs: Where do Hellebuyck, MacKinnon, Kucherov land?

As the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs began, a number of storylines dominated the conversation: Can Connor Hellebuyck turn his historic regular season into a Dominik Hašek-esque postseason run for the ages for the Winnipeg Jets? Will the Colorado AvalancheDallas Stars showdown be a quasi-Cup Final right away in Round 1? Is it finally the year for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to win it all, after the Edmonton Oilers came so close last season?

But beyond the matchups and narratives, it’s also a good time to take stock of which players bring the most value into the postseason.

That’s where goals above replacement (GAR) comes in — my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats like Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold and Hockey-Reference’s point shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player’s total impact — in offense, defense or goaltending — above what a generic “replacement-level” player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league’s value is better balanced by position: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders.

To then assess who might be most valuable on the eve of this year’s playoffs, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James’ concept of an “established level” of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player’s GAR over the past three regular seasons, with more emphasis on 2024-25. And to keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: no player’s established level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season’s GAR.

The result is a blend of peak, recent, and sustained performance — the players on playoff-bound teams who have been great, are currently great or are still trending upward — in a format that gives us a sense of who could define this year’s postseason.

One final note: Injured players who were expected to miss all or substantial parts of the playoffs were excluded from the ranking. Sorry, Jack Hughes.

With that in mind, here are the top 50 skaters and goaltenders on teams in the 2025 playoff field, according to their three-year established level of value, ranked by the numbers:

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Previewing Monday’s four-game slate

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Previewing Monday's four-game slate

Five series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and two more will begin Monday. Meanwhile, the two matchups in the Central Division are on to Game 2.

Here’s the four-pack of games on the calendar:

What are the key storylines heading into Monday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?

Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down last night, and the Three Stars of Sunday Night from Arda Öcal.

Matchup notes

Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Game 1 | 7 p.m., ESPN

You might’ve heard about the 2010 playoff matchup between these two teams a time or so in the past week.

In that postseason, the overwhelming favorite (and No. 1 seed) Capitals, led by Alex Ovechkin, were upset by the No. 8 seed Canadiens, due in large part to an epic performance in goal from Jaroslav Halak. Halak isn’t walking out of the tunnel for the Habs this time around (we assume); instead it’ll be Becancour, Quebec, native Sam Montembeault, who allowed four goals on 35 shots in his one start against the Caps this season.

Washington’s goaltender for Game 1 has yet to be revealed, as Logan Thompson was injured back on April 2. But there’s no question that there is a disparity between the offensive output of the two clubs, as the Caps finished second in the NHL in goals per game (3.49), while the Canadiens finished 17th (2.96). Can Montreal keep up in this series?

St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
Game 2 | 7:30 p.m., ESPN2

The Blues hung with the Jets for much of Game 1 and even looked like the stronger team at certain times, so pulling off the series upset remains on the table. But getting a win on the unfriendly ice at the Canada Life Centre would be of some benefit in shifting momentum before the series moves to St. Louis for Game 3. The Blues proved that Connor Hellebuyck is not invincible in Game 1, and they were led by stars Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, who both got on the board.

The Jets have a mixed history after winning Game 1 of a playoff series, having gone 3-3 as a franchise (including the Atlanta Thrashers days) on such occasions. Like the Blues, the Jets were led by their stars, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, but the game-tying goal came from Alex Iafallo, who has played up and down the lineup this season.

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Game 2 | 9:30 p.m., ESPN

The Stars might like a redo on Game 1 after the visiting Avalanche essentially controlled the festivities for much of the contest. Stars forward Jason Robertson missed Game 1 because of an injury sustained in the final game of the regular season, and his return sooner than later would be excellent for Dallas; he scored three goals in three games against Colorado in the regular season. Also of note, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time.

Slowing down the Avs’ stars will be critical in Game 2, which is a sound — if perhaps unrealistic — strategy. With his two goals in Game 1, Nathan MacKinnon became the third player in Avalanche/Nordiques history to score 50 playoff goals, joining Joe Sakic (84) and Peter Forsberg (58). In reaching 60 assists in his 73rd playoff game, Cale Makar became the third-fastest defenseman in NHL history to reach that milestone, behind Bobby Orr (69 GP) and Al MacInnis (71 GP).

Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Game 1 | 10 p.m., ESPN2

This is the fourth straight postseason in which the Oilers and Kings have met in Round 1, and Edmonton has won the previous three series. Will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings?

L.A. went 3-1-0 against Edmonton this season, including shutouts on April 5 and 14. Quinton Byfield was particularly strong in those games, with three goals and an assist. Overall, the Kings were led in scoring this season by Adrian Kempe, with 35 goals and 38 assists. Warren Foegele — who played 22 playoff games for the Oilers in 2024 — had a career-high 24 goals this season.

The Oilers enter the 2025 postseason with 41 playoff series wins, which is the second most among non-Original Six teams (behind the Flyers, with 44). They have been eliminated by the team that won the Stanley Cup in each of the past three postseasons (Panthers 2024, Golden Knights 2023, Avalanche 2022). Edmonton continues to be led by Leon Draisaitl — who won his first Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer this season — and Connor McDavid, who won the goal-scoring title in 2022-23 and the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the playoffs last year, even though the Oilers didn’t win the Cup.


Arda’s Three Stars of Sunday

For the last several seasons, much of the postseason narrative for the Leafs has been the lack of production from the Core Four. So this was a dream Game 1 against Ottawa for Marner (one goal, two assists), Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Matthews (two assists) in Toronto’s 6-2 win over Ottawa.

Stankoven’s two goals in the second period put the game out of reach, with the Canes winning 4-1 in Game 1. Stankoven is the second player in Hurricanes/Whalers history to score twice in his first playoff game with the club (the other was Andrei Svechnikov in Game 1 of the first round in 2019)

Howden had two third-period goals in the Golden Knights’ victory over the Wild in Game 1, including a buzzer-beating empty-netter to make the final score 4-2.


Sunday’s results

Hurricanes 4, Devils 1
Carolina leads 1-0

The Hurricanes came out inspired thanks in part to the raucous home crowd and took a quick lead off the stick of Jalen Chatfield at 2:24 of the first period. Logan Stankoven — who came over in the Mikko Rantanen trade — scored a pair in the second period, and the Canes never looked back. On the Devils’ side, injuries forced Brenden Dillon and Cody Glass out of the game, while Luke Hughes left in the third period but was able to return. Full recap.

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Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead

Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.

Maple Leafs 6, Senators 2
Toronto leads 1-0

The first skirmish in the Battle of Ontario goes to the home side, as the Leafs never let the Senators get very close in this one. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Mitch Marner scored in the first, John Tavares and William Nylander tallied in the second, while Morgan Rielly and Matthew Knies put the game away in the third. Drake Batherson and Ridly Greig — scorer of a controversial empty-net goal against Toronto in 2024 — scored for Ottawa. Full recap.

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0:42

William Nylander zips home a goal to pad the Maple Leafs’ lead

William Nylander zips the puck past the goalie to give the Maple Leafs a 4-1 lead.

Golden Knights 4, Wild 2
Vegas leads 1-0

In Sunday’s nightcap, the two teams played an evenly matched first two periods, as Vegas carried a 2-1 lead into the third. Then, Brett Howden worked his magic, scoring a goal to pad the Knights’ lead 2:28 into that frame, and putting the game to bed with an empty-netter that beat the buzzer. The Wild were led by Matt Boldy, who had two goals, both assisted by Kirill Kaprizov. Full recap.

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0:31

Brett Howden buries Wild in Game 1 with buzzer-beating goal

Brett Howden sends the Minnesota Wild packing in Game 1 with an empty-net goal for the Golden Knights in the final second.

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