With one of the most impressive QB classes ever, the Pac-12 is going out passing
Written by Kyle Bonagura, Adam Rittenberg, Paolo Uggetti
The Pac-12 has been reduced to embers after college sports’ latest round of realignment, and there is a natural temptation to assign blame. There’s a lot to go around: terrible leadership, bad timing, regional apathy and a lengthy list of poor, pivotal decisions. The conference’s consistent lack of relevance in the College Football Playoff picture exacerbated things and its reputation suffered as a result.
Just don’t blame the quarterbacks.
Through all that went wrong, there is one problem the Pac-12 has never been credibly accused of having, and that is an inability to deliver a fantastically entertaining product on a game-by-game basis. In an era that rewards conferences for competitive inequity, the Pac-12 delivered parity. An unforgivable sin, as it turned out.
There are no good reasons to believe this won’t be the final season of Pac-12 football. If by some stretch of luck the conference finds a way to exist, it will be unrecognizable.
The cruel irony is that while the Pac-12 is a business failure more than anything else, the product it has going into 2023 should be as valuable as any in college football. There are good teams — five are ranked in the top 18 of the preseason AP poll — but the uniqueness is in the talented collection of quarterbacks.
The group features the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, last year’s NCAA FBS leading passer (yards per game), a two-time Pac-12 champion, a Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award finalist, a former Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, a former No. 1 overall QB recruit and two former Walter Payton Award finalists.
“It will make you pull your hair out,” Washington defensive coordinator William Inge said.
Not only does it project as the best group of signal-callers, few — if any — conferences in college football history have ever had a group as accomplished as this one going into a season.
For half a century, the conference has been a standard bearer for quarterback play. It helped launch the careers for a long list of future NFL stars, including John Elway, Aaron Rodgers, Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, Drew Bledsoe and many others.
So, like it has for so long, the Conference of Champions is going out passing.
The stats behind an impressive 2023 class
Let’s start with the obvious: USC quarterback Caleb Williams is set to become the ninth quarterback to play college football as the reigning Heisman winner.
During Williams’ incredible 2022 season, he led the nation in QBR and was second among Power 5 quarterbacks with 4,537 passing yards. No. 1? Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., who threw for 4,641 yards in one fewer game.
Penix tossed 31 touchdown passes — second in the Pac-12 last season behind Williams — but his 60 career touchdown passes rank just fifth among ESPN’s projected Pac-12 starters. Two of those players — Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders (70) and Washington State‘s Cameron Ward (94) — started their careers in the FCS before moving up a level. The other two are Williams (63) and Oregon‘s Bo Nix (68).
Notably behind Penix on the career TD passing charts: Cameron Rising (46), who has led Utah to back-to-back conference titles and was the All-Pac-12 first-team quarterback selection in 2021.
In all, nine quarterbacks have at least 20 career touchdown passes with Arizona‘s Jayden de Laura (53), Oregon State‘s DJ Uiagalelei (36) and Arizona State‘s Drew Pyne (24) all having previous stretches of success.
Collectively, and accounting for glaring inexperience at Cal, Stanford and UCLA, the conference averages 43.1 passing career touchdowns per projected starting quarterback to begin the season. That is, by far, the highest number of a single conference since 2005, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Only three other groups came into a season averaging at least 33: the 2015 Pac-12, the 2008 Big 12 and the 2014 Pac-12.
“The thing I like about it is it’s not just a group of guys that threw for a bunch of yards and touchdowns,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said. “Most of these guys have won and a lot of them won double-digit games. So it’s success in terms of winning games too, not just statistical. You had a couple guys that came back that could have went to the NFL.”
Last year, Williams, Nix, Rising and Penix — along with since-departed UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson — made for one of the best top-five quarterback groups in recent years. Their average QBR of 84.1 ranks fifth among any single conference’s best five quarterbacks since 2005, and for four of them to return is unprecedented.
“They’re super talented and they’ve been coached by really good offensive minds,” first-year ASU coach Kenny Dillingham said. “So the combination of having really good offensive coordinators in this league attracts really good quarterbacks.
“I don’t think it’s by accident that you have all this talent.”
Added up, it comes close to warranting a hyperbolic question: Can this be the best collection of quarterbacks, ever? We’ll see.
A star-studded history
The Pac-12’s past is filled with quarterbacks who either produced historic college careers or went on to have storied seasons in the NFL. Or, in the case of several of them, both.
Allow Chip Kelly to give you a history lesson.
“That’s the one thing that’s always intriguing about this league is it’s always been great quarterbacks,” Kelly, now the head coach at UCLA, said at Pac-12 media day. “Going back to [UCLA’s] Gary Beban, [Oregon State’s] Terry Baker winning the Heisman trophies in the ’60s, and you go on to all the great quarterbacks USC had, and then Troy Aikman is the No. 1 pick of the draft. The Stanford quarterbacks from [Jim] Plunkett to [Andrew] Luck to the [Oregon QBs] Joey Harrington, Marcus Mariota, the list goes on and on.”
From 2007 to 2012, Kelly patrolled the sidelines at Autzen Stadium as an offensive coordinator and then as head coach at Oregon, watching some of the best quarterbacks in the sport face the Ducks. There was, of course, Luck, who was one of the most prolific and efficient quarterbacks the conference had ever seen on his way to being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft.
Down at USC, there was Mark Sanchez, who would go on to be the fifth pick in the 2009 draft, and Matt Barkley, who both followed in the footsteps of other USC elites like Matt Leinart, the 10th overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft and Heisman winner that year. And there was Carson Palmer, who took home the Heisman in 2002. The Trojans’ history extends well past those names, back to when Rodney Peete put up prolific numbers in the ’80s on his way to a Johnny Unitas award and All-American honors.
Across town and over the years, UCLA countered with not just Beban and Aikman, but with Cade McNown in the ’90s and Brett Hundley in the 2010s. Hundley held the record for most touchdowns by a UCLA quarterback until last year, when Thompson-Robinson broke the record.
At Oregon, Dan Fouts was a star for the Ducks in the 1970s (All-Pac-8 in 1972). He went on to lead the NFL in passing four times and was on the NFL’s All-Decade team for the 1980s. Kelly eventually got his own elite quarterback, too, at Oregon. In his last year, his recruiting prowess paid off as the quarterback he brought in to Eugene from Honolulu burst onto the scene as a star. Mariota led the Ducks to a 12-1 record that season as well as a Fiesta Bowl win and a No. 2 overall ranking in the country. Mariota won the bowl game’s MVP award to cap off a remarkable freshman season that put him on the path toward being the Heisman winner in 2014 and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft.
If Kelly’s first time coaching in the conference represented a peak in talented quarterback play, we’re now seeing it again, but the history books display an even deeper showcase of how much the conference and its teams have produced greatness at the position.
“The best indicator of the future is the past,” Oregon head coach Dan Lanning said.
For several Pac-12 quarterbacks, the success has continued as they have transitioned to the NFL, or in some cases, their success has come once they left college. After winning the Heisman in 1970 and being at the forefront of the pro-style offense revolution in what was then the Pac-8, Stanford’s Plunkett went on to win two Super Bowls with the the Raiders. Meanwhile, his fellow Cardinal John Elway won the Super Bowl twice with the Broncos after a largely unremarkable college career that is perhaps best known for “The Play” which Elway was on the losing end of in 1982.
UCLA’s Aikman won three rings with the Cowboys, Washington State’s Mark Rypien won his Super Bowl in 1992 while Cal’s Aaron Rodgers won his lone Super Bowl with the Packers in 2011. Even Nick Foles, who spent a year at Arizona, went on to get a ring of his own in 2018.
For a program like Washington, they may not boast a Super Bowl winner, but its pedigree may be just as good with quarterbacks like Warren Moon, Mark Brunell, Jake Locker and Brock Huard leading the Huskies at various times over the years.
“Every school has had [a great crop of QBs],” Kelly said. “It’s always been that way.”
Quarterback performances have also marked some of the conference’s greatest moments. The Pac-12’s After Dark affairs almost always were high-scoring, back-and-forth games where a quarterback has an out-of-body performance.
Take Connor Halliday for example. The Washington State QB may have peaked in Pullman on an October night in 2014 where he threw for a single-game record 734 passing yards on 70 passing attempts. Somehow his output and six touchdowns were not enough to get the Cougars the win because, on the other side, Cal’s Jared Goff threw for over 500 passing yards and five touchdowns himself, giving his team a 60-59 win. Five years later, Wazzu’s Anthony Gordon and UCLA’s Thompson-Robinson would combine for 1,077 passing yards and 14 touchdowns on their way to a historic 67-63 Bruins win in Pullman.
It’s not just the Elways, the Aikmans and the Leinarts. The Pac-12 has been a hotbed for more than just quarterback stardom, it’s been a home for quarterback phenomena, be it one for a single season, a single game or even a single play. Ask every Arizona fan what they remember about Khalil Tate, and they’ll likely mention the 2017 night when he came off the bench, ran for an FBS-record 327 yards, passed for 142 yards and scored five touchdowns. It’s why USC fans may recognize the school’s iconic quarterback history and still have a greater affinity for a single-season performance like the one Sam Darnold had in 2016 when he went from backup to Rose Bowl-winning starter. Or it’s why an ASU fan can wax poetic about Jake Plummer’s 1996 run as he led the Sun Devils to their only Rose Bowl appearance in the past 26 years or Brock Osweiler’s 4,000-yard season in 2011, too.
Still, despite the conference’s star-studded history at the position or its plethora of signature moments involving quarterbacks, this year’s crew, on paper, is on another level. For those who return, their success is also indicative of the offensive explosion the conference has experienced in recent years. Last year, the Pac-12 had six of the top 25 offenses (per offensive EPA per game) in the country, continuing a trend that isn’t so much about having bad defenses as much as it is having to deal with explosive offenses.
“It makes games fun,” Williams said. “I’ve been in those moments where you try and dominate and play your best and when you got someone on the other side, you don’t dive into their game too much, but you do know that the other person is over there.”
Fun isn’t necessarily how a defensive coordinator would describe it.
“It’s exciting,” Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi said. “We’re possibly going to line up every single week and be competing against an NFL quarterback in this conference. … I love it. Wouldn’t want it any other way.”
Kelly is part of the group that’s ushering the next crop of great Pac-12 (er, West Coast) quarterbacks again. The Bruins have one of the most intriguing freshman QBs not just in the conference, but in the entire country in Dante Moore.
The Michigan product has yet to play a snap in the college game, yet talk of him starting under center for the Bruins is rampant. UCLA is one of the few teams in the conference that doesn’t have an established quarterback, but is boasting a competition at the position that runs four quarterbacks deep who could all take the field come the opening game.
Whoever takes the field for Kelly’s team may not matter when people look back on this upcoming season of the Pac-12. It will likely be remembered for being the last full season of the conference’s 12-team constituents, but once things kick off in late August, what could transpire on the field in the next four months could be historic for quarterback play alone.
For a conference that’s been defined by that position, it would be a fitting finish.
Scouting this year’s QBs
This year’s Pac-12 quarterback class stands out not only for its overall production but its diversity in styles and strengths. The main connective tissue is the transfer portal, as eight of the league’s virtually guaranteed starters began their college careers elsewhere, including Williams (Oklahoma), Penix (Indiana), Bo Nix (Auburn) and Cameron Rising (Texas).
Several made their moves with familiar coaches in mind. Williams played for Riley at OU in 2021. Penix and Nix linked up with coaches who had previously been their offensive coordinators in Kalen DeBoer (Indiana) and Dillingham (Auburn). Sanders followed his father from Jackson State to Colorado. Ward went with Eric Morris from Incarnate Word to Washington State, where Morris served as OC for a year before becoming North Texas’ coach.
“They’re all a little different, of course, and the offenses all fit them well,” Cal coach Justin Wilcox said. “There’s no square peg into a round hole. Penix is so accurate, and Nix gives you a little bit of everything. He does a lot at the line of scrimmage. He can get out of trouble, he can run it and he can throw it. Caleb won the Heisman trophy. So, so calm in the pocket, got such command and he’s very good when things are on time. And then if he needs to extend the play, he can because he’s got the athleticism.”
If Williams has his way, however, it’ll be less running and more passing.
“I don’t want to run at all,” he said. “That’s what we went and got recruits for and more running backs and more wide receivers and more O-linemen. So I can do my job and just stand back there … my job is to get it to ’em. Their job is to make special things happen with it.”
The Pac-12’s biggest names need no introduction, but the league’s layers of quarterbacks — and how they approach the game — are worth reviewing as the season nears. Here are quick scouting reports of the projected starters for the league’s top teams, and a look at the best of the rest.
Caleb Williams, USC
ESPN recruiting rating: No. 1 dual-threat QB, No. 16 overall recruit in 2021 class
Original school: Oklahoma
2022 stats/accolades: Heisman Trophy, Maxwell Award, AP Player of the Year, Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year; set USC single-season records for total offense (4,919 yards), passing yards (4,537), passing touchdowns (42), completions (333) and other categories.
NFL draft outlook: Projected No. 1 overall pick
Scouting report: Williams came into the Pac-12 with plenty of buzz, following Riley from Oklahoma to USC after replacing starter Spencer Rattler with the Sooners as a true freshman in 2021. Although he put together the best statistical passing season in USC history, a program rich in elite quarterback play, Pac-12 coaches were especially impressed with his ability to extend plays. Williams finished second nationally in completions of 20 yards or longer (69). A Pac-12 defensive coordinator described Williams capitalizing on “non-normal plays,” where he would buy enough time for coverage to loosen than attack for big gains. Another Pac-12 defensive coordinator noted that USC’s offensive line could be better in 2023 than 2022, which would allow Williams to operate more in the pocket while maintaining his ability to create.
Michael Penix Jr., Washington
ESPN recruiting rating: Three stars, no national rating, No. 40 pocket passer in 2018 class
Original school: Indiana
2022 stats/accolades: AP Comeback Player of the Year, second-team All-Pac-12, Manning Award finalist; led the FBS in passing average (357 ypg) and ranked second in passing yards (4,641), while setting single-season team records for passing yards and total offense.
NFL draft outlook: Day 3 because of injury history while at Indiana
Scouting report: Penix’s breakout season at Washington wasn’t surprising to Big Ten coaches who watched him help Indiana to a No. 12 AP finish in 2020. He ultimately needed a system fit and got it with DeBoer, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and even tight ends coach Nick Sheridan, who followed DeBoer as OC at Indiana. Penix also needed protection because of his injury history. Washington defensive coordinator William Inge, who also was with Penix and DeBoer at Indiana, told ESPN that Penix reached out about coming to the Huskies with the plea: “Coach, all I need is some protection, with an offensive line.” Penix took only five sacks in 2022 despite 554 pass attempts, No. 4 nationally. He will have top tackles Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten back this fall. Pac-12 coaches say Penix can destroy defenses with a clean pocket. “You need to get him uncomfortable,” a Pac-12 defensive coordinator said.
Bo Nix, Oregon
ESPN recruiting rating: No. 2 pocket passer, No. 23 overall recruit in 2019 class
Original school: Auburn
2022 stats/accolades: Maxwell Award semifinalist, honorable mention All-Pac-12, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award finalist; set Oregon single-season record for completion percentage (71.9) while ranking second on the team chart in completions (294) and leading FBS quarterbacks with 14 rushing touchdowns.
NFL draft outlook: Day 2. Could work way into second round with strong 2023 season
Scouting report: Nix enters his second year as Oregon’s starter and fifth in the Power 5. He has played under three head coaches and will be on his fifth offensive coordinator in Will Stein, but he clearly thrives in the fast-paced, big-play-heavy system Oregon employed in 2022. Nix’s vast experience and knowledge gives him more freedom than most college quarterbacks. “There’s no limit to what Bo is able to check if he understands the situation,” Lanning told ESPN this spring. The subplot at Oregon could be how much control the coaches give to Nix, and how Stein incorporates his ideas without adding unnecessary complexities. “In the past, he just had to run what people wanted him to run,” a Power 5 coach said. “If he doesn’t like what’s going on offensively, he will go to the head coach and make sure it’s stuff he likes.”
Cameron Rising, Utah
ESPN Recruiting rating: No. 11 pocket passer, No. 215 overall player in 2018 class
Original school: Texas
2022 stats/accolades: Semifinalist for Davey O’Brien Award and Maxwell Award, and honorable mention All-Pac-12 (first team in 2021); had career highs in passing yards (3,034), touchdowns (26) and completions (249), while adding 465 rushing yards and six touchdowns; nine games with 200 pass yards or more and eight with multiple touchdown passes.
NFL draft outlook: Undrafted free agent (ACL injury doesn’t help his stock)
Scouting report: Rising has shined in the biggest moments during Utah’s back-to-back Pac-12 title runs, especially in two wins against USC last season (725 pass yards, no interceptions, 78 rushing yards, nine total touchdowns) and two against Oregon in 2021. His numbers and traits don’t jump out as much as some of the other returning quarterbacks, but coaches respect his toughness and efficiency. Rising isn’t a volume runner, but his ability to move stood out in wins over USC and Oregon State last season. The immediate concern is his response from a torn ACL sustained in Utah’s Rose Bowl loss to Penn State. The Utes have the league’s toughest opening schedule with Florida (home) and Baylor (road). Rising’s availability and performance will be watched in those games before league play begins.
DJ Uiagalelei, Oregon State
ESPN Recruiting rating: No. 1 pocket passer and No. 43 overall in 2020 class
Original school: Clemson
2022 stats/accolades: Recorded career highs in passing yards (2,521), passing touchdowns (22), rushing yards (545) and rushing touchdowns (7), while helping Clemson to an ACC title; eclipsed 200 passing yards in each of his first seven games.
NFL draft outlook: Day 3 or undrafted free agent depending on 2023 performance
Scouting report: After losing the starting job at Clemson, Uiagalelei saw Oregon State as a place to learn a more sophisticated offense in a less-pressurized environment, where he can better prepare himself for the NFL. Coaches have taken note of his size, arm strength and emergence as an effective runner at Clemson. But a defensive coordinator who faced Uiagalelei in the ACC questioned how he’ll absorb Oregon State’s pro-style scheme, telling ESPN, “Clemson has the easiest offensive system. If you can’t succeed there, you ain’t gonna succeed anywhere.”
Elsewhere in the Pac-12 quarterback ranks, Arizona brings back de Laura, and Ward returns to Washington State. De Laura, the Pac-12’s Offensive Freshman of the Year at Washington State in 2021, is one of the more captivating players in the league, displaying a fearlessness that leads to both big plays and mistakes.
Ward, who averaged 357.5 pass yards in 2021 for FCS Incarnate Word, tries to build on a solid but not spectacular first season at Washington State, where he completed 64.4% of his passes for 3,231 yards and 23 touchdowns. Pac-12 coaches think a second year at the FBS level will help, although he’s working with a new coordinator in Ben Arbuckle, who arrived from national passing leader Western Kentucky.
“The de Laura kid is a playmaker, the Ward kid has tools,” Grubb said. “Those are guys nobody’s talking about. You’ve still got to line up. I sat up in that box and called the Arizona game and I’m like, ‘Dang, this kid [de Laura] is slinging it. He’s running around and it’s amazing.'”
Similar things could be said about Sanders, who shined at FCS Jackson State the past two seasons, before following his father Deion to Colorado. Coaches expect Colorado’s high-tempo offense under coordinator Sean Lewis to help Sanders’ transition.
Dillingham has an intriguing quarterback room at ASU featuring a veteran holdover in Trenton Bourguet, Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne (10 starts in 2022), BYU transfer Jacob Conover (ESPN’s No. 109 overall recruit in 2019) and freshman Jaden Rashada, ESPN’s No. 31 overall recruit.
ESPN’s top two recruits in the 2023 class are quarterbacks headed to Pac-12 schools (for now, at least). USC’s Malachi Nelson will wait behind Williams, but UCLA’s Moore, who initially committed to Oregon, could be a Day 1 starter. A true pocket passer, Moore isn’t the typical Kelly quarterback but boasts an arm a Power 5 coach described as “elite, elite.”
“Every team that you play, they have a quarterback who is dynamic, who is athletic, and who is premier,” Inge said. “When we were looking through the schedule, it’s like, ‘Oh, my gosh.’ There’s gonna be seven games where the quarterbacks, everybody knows who they are. It’s not, ‘Well, they run the ball all the time.’ No. The ballgame goes through the hands of the quarterback.”
Raising the caliber of QBs for all of college football
There is a giant game of musical chairs being played by quarterbacks in college football. Talented backups in the past were forced to wait their turn, now they are free to find an open seat, and even follow their former coaches who have found new gigs.
In theory, this relatively new dynamic should raise the caliber of quarterback play across the sport, as it has done for the Pac-12.
“You look at it from a defensive perspective and what we saw last year, and the jump that happened from even the 2021 season, it’s pretty obvious,” DeBoer said. “Even just looking at the statistics, of how many more passing yards there were, and the total offense. If you compare stats, I think there were six teams that were offensively at more yards per game than the top offense the year before. To me, that’s a big indicator of your quarterback play.”
From that standpoint, the Pac-12 is ahead of the national curve, and in an ordinary season, that would be a point of conference pride. A positive sign to show the conference is back on the ascend.
Instead, this season feels more like the start of a encore at the last concert before a band breaks up. It’s bittersweet. What’s about to come should be very special, but it represents the end.
With one double-overtime loss to Oregon on Saturday, Penn State dropped out of the latest College Football Playoff projection, landing in the dreaded No. 12 spot, where it would be replaced by the fourth and fifth conference champions.
The Nittany Lions are now officially on the bubble — and under pressure to win at Ohio State on Nov. 1.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
This week, we added a fourth category: On the cusp. These are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers dropped out of the top 12 projection following their loss to Ole Miss because they didn’t look like a playoff team: 2-of-11 on third downs, 59 rushing yards, seven penalties and one turnover. The LSU defense allowed 13 explosive plays, its most in a single game since the 2024 season opener against USC. Offensively, LSU managed just three explosive plays — its fewest in a game since 2018. Still, it was a close loss on the road, and LSU has plenty of chances to get back into the race. Unless it continues to play like that. According to ESPN Analytics, LSU’s chances of reaching the SEC title game dropped to 2.9%, the 10th-best chance in the league. If the Tigers are not in the conference championship game, they could still earn an at-large bid, but they have the No. 12 toughest remaining schedule. That includes trips to ranked opponents Vandy, Alabama and Oklahoma.
The enigma: Vanderbilt. The perception of Vanderbilt is slowly changing — from an academic school with a football team, to an academic school with a spoiler team, to … hey, can these guys beat Bama again?! The Commodores are 5-0 for the second time in 80 years. Vandy beat the Tide 40-35 last year in Nashville. This year, the Commodores have scored at least 55 points in each of their past two games, and they’ve scored at least 30 in all five wins, their longest single-season streak since joining the SEC in 1948. A lot of Vandy’s success stems from the grit and personality of its quarterback, Diego Pavia, who accounted for six touchdowns against Utah State last week. This is where Vandy’s true test begins, though, as the Commodores have the No. 2 toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll face four straight ranked opponents, starting with Bama. ESPN’s FPI gives Vandy less than a 50% chance to beat Alabama, Texas and Tennessee — all three road games. If the Commodores can defy the odds in just one of those — and finish 10-2 — they could have a chance at an at-large bid.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: Penn State. At No. 12 in this week’s weekly projection, Penn State would be bumped out of the CFP field during the seeding process to include Memphis, the projected champion from the American, and the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Penn State dropped for several reasons: It doesn’t have a win against a Power 4 opponent, it has one win against an FCS team (Villanova), and its offense hasn’t looked elite — even against weaker competition. The Nittany Lions can still change the narrative by beating Ohio State on Nov. 1 and Indiana on Nov. 8. They can also lose both of those games and miss the CFP entirely. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State less than a 50% chance to beat each of those teams. Don’t assume a 10-2 Penn State is a lock if its signature win is against Indiana — albeit a very good, ranked IU. There could be multiple other 10-2 contenders with better nonconference wins. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Penn State now has just a 22.5% chance of reaching the CFP — No. 19 in the country.
The enigma: Michigan. It’s still too early to tell how good the Wolverines are, and a bye week didn’t answer any questions. A gritty road win at Nebraska on Sept. 20, though, is early evidence things are trending in the right direction following the Sept. 6 loss at Oklahoma. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, the defense — for the most part — has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. If the Wolverines can split with those two opponents and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee will give them serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams will be out there — and how will their résumés stack up. Right now, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Michigan (35.2%) a better chance of reaching the CFP than Penn State (22.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Jackets fans are still sweating the overtime escape at Wake Forest, and Demon Deacons fans are still mad about the no-call of offside at the end of the game that would’ve given Wake a critical first down. With the win, Georgia Tech now has the fourth-best chance in the league to reach the ACC title game (22%) behind Miami, Virginia and Duke. If the Jackets don’t make the ACC title game, it’s going to be difficult to earn an at-large bid because of the overall schedule strength — unless they find a way to beat rival Georgia. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Duke a 60.5% chance to beat the Jackets at home on Oct. 18, and gives Georgia an 84.7% chance to win. If that comes to fruition, a 10-2 Georgia Tech is likely out. But what if Georgia Tech finishes as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with its lone losses to Georgia and the ACC champ? That could be an interesting debate, but Georgia Tech still might not have enough big wins to impress the committee.
The enigma: Virginia. The Cavaliers had the spotlight to themselves on Friday night in a double-overtime win against Florida State — a stunning victory that illustrated the program’s investments in transfers and facilities and catapulted the Hoos into ACC contention. Was it a one-and-done upset? Or the start of something bigger under coach Tony Elliott? Virginia now has the second-best chance in the league to reach the conference title game (37.5%) behind Miami. The question is if the Cavaliers can sustain that success and build on it. ESPN’s FPI says no, giving them less than a 50% chance to win at Louisville on Saturday and at Duke on Nov. 15. If Virginia can win those games, though, and reach the ACC championship, that win against FSU could help the Hoos earn an at-large bid if they don’t win the ACC. Florida State, though, has to remain relevant in the CFP race for that win to continue to resonate with the committee.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Florida State, Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Cal, Louisville, NC State, Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: Texas Tech. The undefeated Red Raiders were No. 13 in this week’s projection but would still be in the playoff as the projected Big 12 champion. Texas Tech’s best win was Sept. 20 at Utah, but it still has multiple chances to enhance its résumé and play its way into the top 12. If the selection committee ranks Utah, Arizona State and BYU — and the Red Raiders go undefeated during the regular season — it’s highly likely they would be the second Big 12 team if they didn’t win the conference title game. Right now, ESPN’s FPI projects Texas Tech will win each of its remaining games. Nobody in the Big 12 has a better chance to reach the league championship (51.5%) or win it (31.6%).
The enigma: BYU. The undefeated Cougars have won back-to-back road games against East Carolina and Colorado, but is this another 2024 tease? Last year, BYU was undefeated until mid-November, when back-to-back losses knocked it out of the Big 12 and CFP races. The Cougars haven’t earned a signature win yet, and might not until the Oct. 25 trip to Iowa State. That’s when the committee will start to learn how seriously to take BYU, as the following week is a second straight critical road trip — to Texas Tech. The Cougars have the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (42.7%) and win it (26.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll have the Friday night spotlight this week against a struggling West Virginia team.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Colorado, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish are making the slow climb back and can get over .500 for the first time this season with a home win against Boise State on Saturday. It helps Notre Dame that Miami and Texas A&M have continued to win, but it doesn’t help that Arkansas fired its coach after the 56-13 loss to the Irish. It also doesn’t help that USC lost to Illinois, as Notre Dame desperately needs a win against a ranked opponent. As long as the Irish keep winning and doing it with style — as they have in each of their past two games — they’ll be in contention at 10-2.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. The undefeated Tigers would lock up the No. 12 seed this week as the fifth-highest projected conference champion. They currently have the best chance in the Group of 5 (34.5%) to reach the playoff, and the best chance to win the American (41.1%). They’ve won three of their five games on the road, which is more than a lot of other contenders, and they beat a beleaguered Arkansas team 32-31. They’re not alone, though. The American conference is leading the race with multiple candidates, as Navy and North Texas are both undefeated and Tulane is hanging around with its lone loss to Ole Miss.
The enigma: Navy. The undefeated Midshipmen are again on a roll, but Rice is the only opponent over .500 that they’ve beaten, and one win was against VMI, an FCS opponent from the Southern Conference. Can Navy sustain its success against more formidable opponents? Last year, Navy was 6-0 before it came crashing back to reality with back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Rice. According to ESPN Analytics, Navy has just a 12% chance of reaching the conference title game.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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Greg Wyshynski
VOORHEES, NJ — Trevor Zegras owns a large-scale version of his EA Sports “NHL 23” cover, the one where he’s crouched in shorts and an Anaheim Ducks jersey, looking like he’s about to play some street hockey against Team Canada’s Sarah Nurse.
What does Zegras see when he looks at that cover today?
“The same guy.”
Yet many around the NHL have wondered what happened to that version of Trevor Zegras.
The first three seasons of Zegras’ NHL career were brilliant. He tallied 139 points in 180 games with the Ducks. He became the face of a generation of young players who grew up filming themselves attempting trick shots, scoring multiple “Michigan” lacrosse-style goals.
His masterpiece was on Dec. 7, 2021, when Zegras sent a “Michigan” ally-oop pass over the Buffalo Sabres net to teammate Sonny Milano for a goal. High-school and college players started to tag the 20-year-old on social media with their own attempts at “The Zegras.”
2:04
Trevor Zegras breaks down his unbelievable alley-oop assist
Trevor Zegras joins The Point to break down his amazing circus pass to set up Sonny Milano’s goal.
He was one of those players where the question wasn’t if he’d become a star, but how brightly he’d shine. But his last two seasons in Anaheim all but extinguished that star.
They were nightmarish, filled with injuries, criticism of his defensive game, conflicts with Ducks management and statistical decline: His 0.77 points-per-game average over his first three seasons plummeted to 0.53. They were also filled with trade rumors, which Zegras said caused him “awful” mental anxiety, and eventually a trade to the Philadelphia Flyers in June.
“The guy hasn’t liked his last couple of years. He has his doubters,” Flyers coach Rick Tocchet said. “He’s in-house now. He knows this is his sanctuary.”
The move to Philadelphia offers Zegras the reset he’s needed. A chance to play center after the Ducks forced him to the wing. A chance to vibe with other young stars like Matvei Michkov. A chance to “recapture some of the magic that he had in his first few seasons,” as Flyers GM Daniel Briere put it.
What does Zegras want people saying about him after his first season in Philadelphia?
“I want them to go from saying ‘he’s good at hockey’ to ‘he’s a hockey player,'” Zegras told ESPN last week.
“I think there are a lot of guys that are good at hockey. After the season, I’d rather be known as somebody who is a hockey player.”
WHAT WENT WRONG in Anaheim?
“Seasonal depression. Let’s go with that,” Zegras deadpanned, sitting in the media room at the Flyers training facility. “I need winters. Every day felt the exact same for five years. It was weird. Seasonal depression. It’s a real thing. I swear to God.”
Despite the monotonously gorgeous weather, things weren’t always sunny for Zegras in SoCal.
After leaving Boston University in 2020, Zegras joined a Ducks team coached by Dallas Eakins and managed by Bob Murray, who drafted Zegras ninth overall in 2019. Murray resigned on Nov. 10, 2021 following an investigation into his professional conduct. After Jeff Solomon served as interim general manager, Pat Verbeek was hired from the Red Wings to take over as general manager in Feb. 2022.
Zegras had his two breakout seasons under Eakins: 23 goals and 38 assists in 75 games during 2021-22, when he finished second to Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider in the rookie of the year voting; followed by 23 goals and 42 points in 81 games in 2022-23.
Eakins was fired in April 2023 after four seasons. Verbeek replaced him with Greg Cronin, who arrived from the Colorado Avalanche‘s AHL affiliate with a reputation for developing young players. Zegras, a restricted free agent, missed Cronin’s first training camp. He signed a three-year bridge contract with Verbeek that paid him $17.25 million total through 2025-26. After his first practice with the new coach, Zegras was asked what he and Cronin discussed on the ice.
“He was telling me how to play defense,” Zegas quipped, a nod to his reputation as a one-dimensional player.
Cronin gave Zegras some tough love during that 2023-24 season, benching him for his in-game decision-making. Zegras had a sluggish start, with just a goal and an assist in his first 12 games.
“I think when you have a new GM and you’re bring in a new coach, I think they want things done their way. And not to say that I wasn’t OK with doing everything their way, but I think there were things that maybe we didn’t see eye to eye on a ton of the time and maybe they viewed that as a negative thing,” Zegras said.
“The contract stuff played a role, too,” he continued. “That was hard, just from a mental standpoint. That was a year with the new coach and then you kind of come in behind the 8-ball. You get off to a slow start and then that combined with the contract and with the [trade] rumors, it’s just not fun. But I’ve gotta keep playing.”
Not helping matters: Cronin moved Zegras from center to the wing, making room for other young centers like Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish.
“And then it’s, ‘You’re moving over here, you’re moving over here, you’re moving over here.’ And you’re like, ‘I’m doing everything you want me to do,'” he said.
It ended up being a dreadful campaign for Zegras health-wise, as a lower-body injury and ankle surgery limited him to just 31 games. But the real nightmare was on the stat sheet: Zegras tallied just 15 points, including six goals, well off his offensive pace of the previous two seasons.
He had another slow start in 2024-25, tallying four points in 17 games. Then, just as his offense started to heat up, Zegras needed surgery in December for a torn meniscus in his right knee. He finished with 32 points in 57 games — an improvement, but still not up to previous standards.
Zegras believes he wasn’t given a proper chance by Cronin and Verbeek to prove his worth as a center. That left him “overthinking things” and feeling unsupported by his team, which impacted his mental health.
“The last thing I was thinking about was actually playing hockey at times. That was hard for me. And then you throw in the injuries and then the rehab and the recovery and then getting back to, I guess, the place that you were before. Little things become big things in your head, and it makes it very hard to play against the best players in the world on a night-to-night basis,” Zegras said.
“It almost felt like you were alone, when they didn’t believe in you.”
Not helping Zegras was the noise surrounding his situation in Anaheim. He became a mainstay on NHL trade boards during his two underwhelming seasons under Cronin.
“It was awful. When it’s never happened to you before, it’s awful. The second year it was easier to deal with, but that first year was tough,” Zegras said. “It was everywhere. It was every day. It was this and that, and this and that, and then it was another little thing that becomes a big thing. You’re not thinking about it, but you’re seeing it everywhere, and it just sucks.”
Reality stopped the rumors on June 23: Zegras had been traded to the Flyers for Ryan Poehling, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick. Verbeek said Zegras no longer fit within the Ducks’ lineup.
“Ultimately, Trevor has been wanting to play center, and I think that he’ll be given that opportunity in Philadelphia. Trevor to kind of get pushed to the wing, and that probably doesn’t suit his best attributes being able to create from the middle,” Verbeek said. “I want to thank Trevor for this past six seasons and his contributions to our club. Obviously, it was a difficult trade to make from that perspective, but we’re trying to retool the roster in a way [where] all the pieces fit cohesively.”
The Flyers, like other teams, had checked in on Zegras’ availability over the last two seasons. Sometimes the timing wasn’t right for Philadelphia. Most times the Ducks weren’t ready to part with him. Briere believes that Zegras’ production had dipped to a level where he finally became available.
“Top-six talents are very rarely available in the NHL. We felt this was a risk worth taking. It’s not a secret: We’re thin in the middle, and hopefully he can help us out,” Briere said. “We hope he can find that magic again and take it to another level.”
LUKAS DOSTAL HAS SEEN that magic firsthand.
When he wasn’t starting, the Ducks goalie would be the guy between the pipes on breakaway drills. He recalls Zegras pulling out his video-game moves during their friendly competitions.
“I didn’t like them Sometimes he did his YouTube tricks and I told him, ‘Man, just be serious about it. Come on!'” he recalled, with a laugh.
Dostal believes Zegras has been misunderstood, especially when it comes to criticism of his defensive game.
“A lot of people maybe didn’t see it, but he really understood how to play two-way hockey. He was really working hard on it in the last year,” Dostal said. “He probably didn’t put up as many points as he wanted, but his more responsible way of hockey got much better. I love him as a guy. I hope he’s going to do well in Philadelphia.”
Brady Tkachuk trained with Zegras in Connecticut during the offseason. He also hopes a fresh start in Philadelphia will help him find his form again.
“It’s going to be great for him, especially under [Tocchet]. I know they have a great culture there and I think he’s just going to do a good job of fitting in there,” Tkachuk told ESPN recently. “I’ve always thought playing against Philly that they play super hard, but they have a lot of great players with skill and kind of play that hard way as well. So I think that is going to be the best thing for him. So I’m excited to see how the change affects him. I bet that’s it’s going to be for the good.”
Tocchet is in his first season as Flyers head coach after three seasons with the Vancouver Canucks. He played 11 seasons in Philadelphia, forging a reputation as a rugged, no-nonsense winger. Many know him simply as “Tock.” Hence, he was amused when Zegras gave him a different nickname as Flyers camp started: “Taco.”
“Yeah, that’s what he’s calling me,” Tocchet said. “He smiles. His personality is great for a room.”
Where did “Taco” come from? Zegras said it was inspired by his friends and fellow NHLers Jack, Quinn and Luke Hughes.
“I’m good buddies with the Hughes [brothers] and they always ask me how ‘Taco’ is,” he said.
Zegras spent time with the Hughes brothers during the summer, including on the golf course, where Zegras proudly states he’s the best golfer of the four NHL players. He offered the following scouting report on the Hughes’ approach to golf:
“I like Jack’s game because he is the quickest, fastest golfer player I have ever seen in my entire life. He will have a full conversation with you while he’s putting the tee in the ground, and then he’ll swing quick and then finish his conversation. Whereas Quinn is the exact opposite. He’ll take 10 practice swings and then hit one.”
Zegras said he’s happy to be in the same division with Jack and Luke Hughes, because it means he’s no longer in the same division as their brother.
“I never want to play Quinn ever again. He’s the best hockey player of all-time,” he said.
The Flyers aren’t looking for Zegras to be an all-timer. They’d settle for having that creative spark from his early years, combined with a solid two-way game that makes him an answer at center.
“There are certain parts of his game that he knows that he has to clean up. He’s willing to learn,” Tocchet said. “He’s coachable. He’s been in the office watching video. He’s on the ice listening to the other coaches. He’s a great kid.”
Briere sees Zegras as a player who can grow with the young talents on the Flyers, who are seeking to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
“He’ll be a motivated player. If you look at his age, he can grow with many of the young players we have here,” he said. “We believe in him and believe he can recapture some of the magic that he had in his first few seasons.”
When Zegras hears Briere talk about “recapturing the magic,” it only means one thing to him. It’s the same thing that 20-year-old on the video game cover represented.
“Have fun. Just. Have. Fun. And I’m having a great freaking time. It’s awesome. Matvei’s fun to play with. The guys in the room are awesome. Getting to the rink early, just hanging out with everybody’s been a blast,” Zegras said.
“Not that I didn’t have a blast in Anaheim. It’s just different. It’s way different. Everything’s new again. Everything is fresh.”
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Kristen Shilton
The Toronto Maple Leafs signed goaltender Anthony Stolarz to a four-year, $15 million contract extension, the team said Sunday.
Stolarz is entering the final season of a two-year pact he signed with the Maple Leafs as a free agent ahead of the 2024-25 campaign. This new deal cements his status as the team’s No. 1 goaltender going forward and completes a priority negotiation for the club.
The extension comes after Toronto announced earlier this month that goaltender Joseph Woll was taking an indefinite leave of absence from the team for personal reasons. Woll split duties with Stolarz last season and is signed with the Maple Leafs through 2027-28.
Stolarz arrived in Toronto after backing up Sergei Bobrovsky on the Florida Panthers‘ 2023-24 Stanley Cup run, when he led the league with a .927 save percentage in 27 regular-season games. He played a career-high 34 games for the Maple Leafs last season, going 21-8-3 with a league-leading .926 save percentage and a 2.14 goals-against average.
Stolarz was sidelined by significant injuries, too, missing time in the regular season following knee surgery and then being forced out of playoff action with a concussion sustained in Toronto’s second-round series against Florida.
The 31-year-old did backstop the Maple Leafs to their first-round victory over Ottawa, recording a .901 save percentage and a 2.19 GAA in seven total appearances.
Toronto now is counting on Stolarz not only to stay healthy this season but to take on even more responsibility.
“He showed us last year that he can handle the load,” Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube said last week. “He’s a veteran guy now. He’s been around for a long time. He’s learned over the years how to take care of his body and what type of shape he needs to be in to be able to handle a heavier workload, and he wants a heavier workload.”
With Woll sidelined, the Maple Leafs attempted to find a backup for Stolarz by signing veteran James Reimer to a professional tryout Friday. Reimer was a fourth-round selection by Toronto in the 2006 NHL draft and spent six seasons playing for the team. Now, the 37-year-old is on track to potentially earn a contract to be the club’s No. 2 until Woll can return.
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