Four key things the Prigozhin plane footage tells us – from a former UK military pilot
Was the private jet believed to be carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin brought down, and what exactly happened to it?
Several theories have been put forward as to what may have caused the plane to come hurtling to the ground as it travelled from Moscow to St Petersburg.
Using footage of the crash which has emerged online, military analyst and former pilot Sean Bell points to four key things it shows that may provide hints as to what likely happened to the aircraft.
1. A missile strike
One image shows a “swirl of cloud” which doesn’t sit comfortably against the rest, Bell says.
Drawing on his own experience of flying combat aircraft, he explains that if a surface-to-air missile hit the plane, “you would see that sort of vapour trial in the final stages of its approach”.
“Therefore, either that could be an explosion, or it could be a surface-to-air missile system,” he says.
2. ‘Smoke’ as plane plummets
Bell highlights what appears to be a trail of smoke coming from the wreckage of the plane, around halfway into its descent.
He says this is “almost certainly not smoke” and is probably “fuel venting”.
“It’s a large quantity, that is a massive damage to the aircraft that’s caused that,” he adds.
3 and 4. Missing wing in the air – and a wing on the ground
Video footage apparently shows the plane missing a wing
Footage of the plane closer to the ground appears to show it with only one wing – which explains why it came down “vertically, not unlike a falling leaf”, says Bell.
The fourth point to note is that other pictures from the crash site show a wing “distinctly separate”, he adds.
“Now, you put all of that together… there’s lots of reasons why that might have occurred, but that is not a natural accident,” Bell explains.
Wreckage of the wing seen near the crash site in the Tver region, Russia
“That is a catastrophe that’s happened in the air… there were rumours that a case of wine [containing a bomb] was put on the aircraft at the last minute.
“The trouble with that theory is that generally speaking, [an explosion] inside an aircraft blows it out and therefore probably wouldn’t take a wing off, whereas a surface-to-air missile system or an air-to-air missile system generally tries to seek out the juiciest, meatiest part of an aircraft, and that is where the wing spar joins the main aircraft.
“That would explain why it potentially could rip a wing off. And as soon as it did that, the fate of the aircraft was sealed.”
Is there a link to Putin?
Asked why – if he was behind the crash – Vladimir Putin didn’t target Prigozhin sooner after the short-lived mutiny two months ago, Bell said “systematically, President Putin has been dismembering” the Wagner boss’ business ever since.
“Tellingly, it was a couple of days ago where we saw the last video image of Yevgeny Prigozhin in a field, potentially in Africa, alone. He wasn’t surrounded by anybody else.
“All of a sudden, Prigozhin looks a slightly sad man alone and watching his empire dismembered. And at that stage, most military analysts were saying: ‘this is the end’.
“President Putin is acting as judge, jury and executioner and he is no more. That’s what we’re led to believe.”
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What do we know about what happened?
The Embraer Legacy 600 plane was travelling from Moscow to St Petersburg on Wednesday.
Flight tracking website Flightradar24 says it first received data from the aircraft at 2.46pm local time.
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s jet was travelling away from Moscow and crashed near Tver. Pic: Flightradar24
The aircraft climbed to a cruising altitude of 28,000ft between 2.59pm and 3.11pm.
Nine minutes later, it had stopped transmitting data.
“Even though the aircraft was not transmitting position information, other data like altitude, speed, vertical rate, and autopilot settings were broadcast. It is this data that provides some insight into the final moments of the flight,” Flightradar24 said.
At 3.19pm, the aircraft descended briefly before climbing to a maximum altitude of 30,100ft.
Altitude data shows what happened to Prigozhin’s jet. Pic: Flightradar24
It then descended back to roughly 27,500ft, before climbing and then levelling off again.
It then started to descend sharply, with the final data showing it at 19,725ft.
Around 14 million people could die across the world over the next five years because of cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID), researchers have warned.
Children under five are expected to make up around a third (4.5 million) of the mortalities, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal.
Estimates showed that “unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030”.
“Beyond causing millions of avoidable deaths – particularly among the most vulnerable – these cuts risk reversing decades of progress in health and socioeconomic development in LMICs [low and middle-income countries],” the report said.
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USAID programmes have prevented the deaths of more than 91 million people, around a third of them among children, the study suggests.
The agency’s work has been linked to a 65% fall in deaths from HIV/AIDS, or 25.5 million people.
Eight million deaths from malaria, more than half the total, around 11 million from diarrheal diseases and nearly five million from tuberculosis (TB), have also been prevented.
USAID has been vital in improving global health, “especially in LMICs, particularly African nations,” according to the report.
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Established in 1961, the agency was tasked with providing humanitarian assistance and helping economic growth in developing countries, especially those deemed strategic to Washington.
But the Trump administration has made little secret of its antipathy towards the agency, which became an early victim of cuts carried out by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – formerly led by Elon Musk – in what the US government said was part of a broader plan to remove wasteful spending.
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What is USAID?
In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said more than 80% of USAID schemes had been closed following a six-week review, leaving around 1,000 active.
The US is the world’s largest humanitarian aid donor, providing around $61bn (£44bn) in foreign assistance last year, according to government data, or at least 38% of the total, and USAID is the world’s leading donor for humanitarian and development aid, the report said.
Between 2017 and 2020, the agency responded to more than 240 natural disasters and crises worldwide – and in 2016 it sent food assistance to more than 53 million people across 47 countries.
The study assessed all-age and all-cause mortality rates in 133 countries and territories, including all those classified as low and middle-income, supported by USAID from 2001 to 2021.
Thailand’s prime minister has been suspended after a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician caused outrage.
An ethics investigation into Paetongtarn Shinawatra is under way and she could end up being dismissed.
The country’s constitutional court took up a petition from 36 senators, who claimed dishonesty and a breach of ethical standards, and voted 7 to 2 to suspend her.
Protesters gathered in Bangkok at the weekend. Pic: Reuters
The prime minister’s call with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, sparked public protests after she tried to appease him and criticised a Thai army commander – a taboo move in a country where the military is extremely influential.
Ms Shinawatra was trying to defuse mounting tensions at the border – which in May resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier.
Thousands of conservative, nationalist protesters held a demo in Bangkok on Saturday to urge her to step down.
Her party is clinging on to power after another group withdrew from their alliance a few weeks ago over the phone call. Calls for a no-confidence vote are likely.
Deputy prime minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit will take over temporarily while the court looks into the case.
The 38-year-old prime minister – Thailand‘s youngest ever leader – has 15 days to respond to the probe. She has apologised and said her approach in the call was a negotiating tactic.
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The popularity of her government has slumped recently, with an opinion poll showing an approval rating of 9.2%, down from 30.9% in March.
Ms Shinawatra comes from a wealthy dynasty synonymous with Thai politics.
Her father Thaksin Shinawatra – a former Manchester City owner – and aunt Yingluck Shinawatra served as prime minister before her – in the early to mid 2000s – and their time in office also ended ignominiously amid corruption charges and military coups.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be meeting Donald Trump next Monday, according to US officials.
The visit on 7 July comes after Mr Trump suggested it was possible a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached within a week.
On Sunday, he wrote on social media: “MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!”
At least 60 people killed across Gaza on Monday, in what turned out to be some of the heaviest attacks in weeks.
Benjamin Netanyahu, left, with Donald Trump during a previous meeting. Pic: Reuters
According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 56,500 people have been killed in the 20-month war.
The visit by Mr Netanyahu to Washington has not been formally announced and the officials who said it would be going ahead spoke on condition of anonymity.
An Israeli official in Washington also confirmed the meeting next Monday.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was in constant communication with the Israeli government.
She said Mr Trump viewed ending the war in Gaza and returning remaining hostages held by Hamas as a top priority.
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The war in Gaza broke out in retaliation for Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attacks on southern Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw a further 250 taken hostage.
An eight-week ceasefire was reached in the final days of Joe Biden’s US presidency, but Israel resumed the war in March after trying to get Hamas to accept new terms on next steps.
Talks between Israel and Hamas have stalled over whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire.
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