Four key things the Prigozhin plane footage tells us – from a former UK military pilot
Was the private jet believed to be carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin brought down, and what exactly happened to it?
Several theories have been put forward as to what may have caused the plane to come hurtling to the ground as it travelled from Moscow to St Petersburg.
Using footage of the crash which has emerged online, military analyst and former pilot Sean Bell points to four key things it shows that may provide hints as to what likely happened to the aircraft.
1. A missile strike
One image shows a “swirl of cloud” which doesn’t sit comfortably against the rest, Bell says.
Drawing on his own experience of flying combat aircraft, he explains that if a surface-to-air missile hit the plane, “you would see that sort of vapour trial in the final stages of its approach”.
“Therefore, either that could be an explosion, or it could be a surface-to-air missile system,” he says.
2. ‘Smoke’ as plane plummets
Bell highlights what appears to be a trail of smoke coming from the wreckage of the plane, around halfway into its descent.
He says this is “almost certainly not smoke” and is probably “fuel venting”.
“It’s a large quantity, that is a massive damage to the aircraft that’s caused that,” he adds.
3 and 4. Missing wing in the air – and a wing on the ground
Video footage apparently shows the plane missing a wing
Footage of the plane closer to the ground appears to show it with only one wing – which explains why it came down “vertically, not unlike a falling leaf”, says Bell.
The fourth point to note is that other pictures from the crash site show a wing “distinctly separate”, he adds.
“Now, you put all of that together… there’s lots of reasons why that might have occurred, but that is not a natural accident,” Bell explains.
Wreckage of the wing seen near the crash site in the Tver region, Russia
“That is a catastrophe that’s happened in the air… there were rumours that a case of wine [containing a bomb] was put on the aircraft at the last minute.
“The trouble with that theory is that generally speaking, [an explosion] inside an aircraft blows it out and therefore probably wouldn’t take a wing off, whereas a surface-to-air missile system or an air-to-air missile system generally tries to seek out the juiciest, meatiest part of an aircraft, and that is where the wing spar joins the main aircraft.
“That would explain why it potentially could rip a wing off. And as soon as it did that, the fate of the aircraft was sealed.”
Is there a link to Putin?
Asked why – if he was behind the crash – Vladimir Putin didn’t target Prigozhin sooner after the short-lived mutiny two months ago, Bell said “systematically, President Putin has been dismembering” the Wagner boss’ business ever since.
“Tellingly, it was a couple of days ago where we saw the last video image of Yevgeny Prigozhin in a field, potentially in Africa, alone. He wasn’t surrounded by anybody else.
“All of a sudden, Prigozhin looks a slightly sad man alone and watching his empire dismembered. And at that stage, most military analysts were saying: ‘this is the end’.
“President Putin is acting as judge, jury and executioner and he is no more. That’s what we’re led to believe.”
Read more:
Prigozhin plane crash: What happened?
Timeline of Prigozhin movements after failed mutiny
Prigozhin’s apparent death proves no one is indispensable
What do we know about what happened?
The Embraer Legacy 600 plane was travelling from Moscow to St Petersburg on Wednesday.
Flight tracking website Flightradar24 says it first received data from the aircraft at 2.46pm local time.
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s jet was travelling away from Moscow and crashed near Tver. Pic: Flightradar24
The aircraft climbed to a cruising altitude of 28,000ft between 2.59pm and 3.11pm.
Nine minutes later, it had stopped transmitting data.
“Even though the aircraft was not transmitting position information, other data like altitude, speed, vertical rate, and autopilot settings were broadcast. It is this data that provides some insight into the final moments of the flight,” Flightradar24 said.
At 3.19pm, the aircraft descended briefly before climbing to a maximum altitude of 30,100ft.
Altitude data shows what happened to Prigozhin’s jet. Pic: Flightradar24
It then descended back to roughly 27,500ft, before climbing and then levelling off again.
It then started to descend sharply, with the final data showing it at 19,725ft.
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Read more:
What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
Read more:
Pope Francis honoured by Joe Biden
Donald Trump’s inauguration 2.0
Pic: AP
Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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