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Was the private jet believed to be carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin brought down, and what exactly happened to it?

Several theories have been put forward as to what may have caused the plane to come hurtling to the ground as it travelled from Moscow to St Petersburg.

Using footage of the crash which has emerged online, military analyst and former pilot Sean Bell points to four key things it shows that may provide hints as to what likely happened to the aircraft.

1. A missile strike

One image shows a “swirl of cloud” which doesn’t sit comfortably against the rest, Bell says.

Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on the private jet that crashed on Wednesday evening

Drawing on his own experience of flying combat aircraft, he explains that if a surface-to-air missile hit the plane, “you would see that sort of vapour trial in the final stages of its approach”.

“Therefore, either that could be an explosion, or it could be a surface-to-air missile system,” he says.

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2. ‘Smoke’ as plane plummets

Footage appeared to show a 'smoke trail' coming from the falling plane

Bell highlights what appears to be a trail of smoke coming from the wreckage of the plane, around halfway into its descent.

He says this is “almost certainly not smoke” and is probably “fuel venting”.

“It’s a large quantity, that is a massive damage to the aircraft that’s caused that,” he adds.

3 and 4. Missing wing in the air – and a wing on the ground

Video footage apparently shows the plane missing a wing
Image:
Video footage apparently shows the plane missing a wing

Footage of the plane closer to the ground appears to show it with only one wing – which explains why it came down “vertically, not unlike a falling leaf”, says Bell.

The fourth point to note is that other pictures from the crash site show a wing “distinctly separate”, he adds.

“Now, you put all of that together… there’s lots of reasons why that might have occurred, but that is not a natural accident,” Bell explains.

A wreckage of the private jet linked to Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is seen near the crash site in the Tver region, Russia, August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Marina Lystseva
Image:
Wreckage of the wing seen near the crash site in the Tver region, Russia

“That is a catastrophe that’s happened in the air… there were rumours that a case of wine [containing a bomb] was put on the aircraft at the last minute.

“The trouble with that theory is that generally speaking, [an explosion] inside an aircraft blows it out and therefore probably wouldn’t take a wing off, whereas a surface-to-air missile system or an air-to-air missile system generally tries to seek out the juiciest, meatiest part of an aircraft, and that is where the wing spar joins the main aircraft.

“That would explain why it potentially could rip a wing off. And as soon as it did that, the fate of the aircraft was sealed.”

Is there a link to Putin?

Asked why – if he was behind the crash – Vladimir Putin didn’t target Prigozhin sooner after the short-lived mutiny two months ago, Bell said “systematically, President Putin has been dismembering” the Wagner boss’ business ever since.

“Tellingly, it was a couple of days ago where we saw the last video image of Yevgeny Prigozhin in a field, potentially in Africa, alone. He wasn’t surrounded by anybody else.

“All of a sudden, Prigozhin looks a slightly sad man alone and watching his empire dismembered. And at that stage, most military analysts were saying: ‘this is the end’.

“President Putin is acting as judge, jury and executioner and he is no more. That’s what we’re led to believe.”

Read more:
Prigozhin plane crash: What happened?
Timeline of Prigozhin movements after failed mutiny

Prigozhin’s apparent death proves no one is indispensable

What do we know about what happened?

The Embraer Legacy 600 plane was travelling from Moscow to St Petersburg on Wednesday.

Flight tracking website Flightradar24 says it first received data from the aircraft at 2.46pm local time.

Yevgeny Prigozhin's jet was travelling away from Moscow and crashed near Tver. Pic: Flightradar24
Image:
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s jet was travelling away from Moscow and crashed near Tver. Pic: Flightradar24

The aircraft climbed to a cruising altitude of 28,000ft between 2.59pm and 3.11pm.

Nine minutes later, it had stopped transmitting data.

“Even though the aircraft was not transmitting position information, other data like altitude, speed, vertical rate, and autopilot settings were broadcast. It is this data that provides some insight into the final moments of the flight,” Flightradar24 said.

At 3.19pm, the aircraft descended briefly before climbing to a maximum altitude of 30,100ft.

Altitude data shows what happened to Prigozhin's jet. Pic: Flightradar24
Image:
Altitude data shows what happened to Prigozhin’s jet. Pic: Flightradar24

It then descended back to roughly 27,500ft, before climbing and then levelling off again.

It then started to descend sharply, with the final data showing it at 19,725ft.

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Bodies of two more Israeli hostages handed over by Hamas – but uncertainty over missing remains

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Bodies of two more Israeli hostages handed over by Hamas - but uncertainty over missing remains

The bodies of two more Israeli hostages have been handed over to the Red Cross by Hamas – but uncertainty still hangs over the fate of the missing remains of others.

Under the ceasefire agreement, all remaining 48 hostages, dead and alive, were supposed to be returned by this Monday.

So far, only the 20 living hostages have been returned, as well as seven dead hostages, according to Israel’s count, with two further bodies still being verified.

Just hours after today’s handover, the Israeli military said a tenth body previously turned over was not that of a hostage – and the confusion added to tensions over the fragile truce that has paused the two-year war.

What has Hamas said?

Hamas has previously said recovering the remaining bodies could take time, as not all burial sites are known.

Its armed wing put out a statement on Wednesday, saying it has returned all the bodies it could reasonably recover, but would require special equipment to hand over the remaining ones.

More on Gaza

Meanwhile, the Gaza Health Ministry said it received 45 more bodies of Palestinians from Israel, another step in the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.

Red Cross vehicles escort a truck transporting the bodies of Palestinian hostages. Pic: Reuters.
Image:
Red Cross vehicles escort a truck transporting the bodies of Palestinian hostages. Pic: Reuters.

That brings to 90 the total number of bodies returned to Gaza for burial. The forensics team examining the remains claimed they showed signs of mistreatment.

Trump issues warning

The return of all the hostages is a key pillar of the deal agreed to by Israel and Hamas, heralded by US President Donald Trump as having brought “peace in the Middle East”.

Israel – which has freed around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees as part of the peace deal – had already threatened to keep the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt closed on Wednesday, and limit aid entering Gaza, due to Hamas not returning all of the dead.

And in an interview with CNN on Wednesday, Mr Trump warned that Israel could resume the war if he feels Hamas is not upholding its end of the agreement.

“Israel will return to those streets as soon as I say the word,” he said.

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Trump: ‘If Hamas doesn’t disarm, we will disarm them’

From our experts:
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Since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel in 2023 – in which around 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage – the two sides have been at war.

Nearly 68,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel’s subsequent offensive, according to the Health Ministry, which is part of the Hamas-run government in Gaza.

The ministry maintains detailed casualty records that are seen as generally reliable by UN agencies and independent experts – though the ministry does not say how many of those killed are combatants.

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Middle East correspondent Adam Parsons explains why tensions may begin to bubble

Similar incident in previous ceasefire

This is not the first time Hamas has returned a wrong body to Israel.

During a previous ceasefire, the group said it handed over the bodies of Shiri Bibas and her two sons, but testing in February 2025 showed that one of the bodies returned was identified as a Palestinian woman. Ms Bibas’ body was returned a day later.

Meanwhile, Hamas spokesperson Hazem Kassem accused Israel of violating the deal with shootings on Tuesday in eastern Gaza City and the southern city of Rafah.

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Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, said the military is operating along the deployment lines troops withdrew to under the deal, and he warned that anyone approaching the lines will be targeted, as happened on Tuesday with several militants.

Aid trickling in

The World Food Programme said its trucks began arriving in Gaza after the entrance of humanitarian aid was paused for two days due to the exchange on Monday and a Jewish holiday on Tuesday.

The timing of the scaled-up deliveries – which are also part of the ceasefire deal – had been called into question after Israel said on Tuesday that it would cut the number of trucks allowed into Gaza, saying Hamas was too slow to return the hostages’ bodies.

Trucks carrying humanitarian aid and fuel enter Khan Yunis, a city in the southern Gaza Strip. Pic: AP
Image:
Trucks carrying humanitarian aid and fuel enter Khan Yunis, a city in the southern Gaza Strip. Pic: AP

Abeer Etefa, spokesperson for the World Food Programme, lauded the trucks’ passage but said the situation remained unpredictable.

“We’re hopeful that access will improve in the coming days,” she said.

The Egyptian Red Crescent said 400 trucks carrying food, fuel and medical supplies were bound for Gaza on Wednesday.

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‘Your support can save lives’: Renewed appeal for donations as aid starts to enter Gaza

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'Your support can save lives': Renewed appeal for donations as aid starts to enter Gaza

Fifteen UK charities have launched a fresh appeal for donations to Gaza to address “catastrophic levels of need” in the devastated region.

The charities make up the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC), which has been raising millions for Gaza – where tens of thousands have been killed over the past two years of war – and the wider Middle East.

After the initial stage of a much-sought ceasefire deal aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza was agreed on by Israel and Hamas, aid has begun to trickle into the devastated region again.

According to the DEC, its charities and local partners have been scaling up their work in the Gaza Strip since the agreement took effect last week.

Palestinians walk past the rubble of destroyed buildings in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Palestinians walk past the rubble of destroyed buildings in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters

It said lorries carrying food and other aid began to enter Gaza on Sunday, with the British Red Cross and Plan International UK among those confirming supplies had made it in.

After raising more than £50m since the Middle East Humanitarian Appeal was launched last October, the DEC is renewing calls for donations, saying £10 could provide blankets for two people, while £50 could provide emergency food for five families for one week.

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Israel says no match for body handed over by Hamas

As goods are returning to Gaza’s markets, the DEC said, they are increasing cash assistance to help people buy essentials as they become more affordable.

They’re also distributing clean water, medicine, food, and nutrition support.

On its website, the DEC pointed to how famine was declared in Gaza City in August as it appealed for funds saying: “Your support can save lives.”

You can donate to the Middle East Humanitarian Appeal at dec.org.uk.

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Trump refuses to say if CIA has authority to assassinate Venezuela’s president

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Trump refuses to say if CIA has authority to assassinate Venezuela's president

Donald Trump has refused to say if the CIA has the authority to assassinate Venezuela’s president, after approving covert operations in the country to tackle alleged drug trafficking.

The classified decision, first revealed by The New York Times, marks a significant escalation in efforts to pressure President Nicolas Maduro‘s regime.

Mr Trump said large amounts of drugs were entering the US from Venezuela, much of it trafficked by sea.

“We are looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control,” he said.

When asked why the coastguard wasn’t asked to intercept suspected drug trafficking boats, which has been a longstanding US practice, Mr Trump said the approach had been ineffective.

“I think Venezuela is feeling heat,” he said.

He declined to answer whether the CIA has the authority to execute Mr Maduro.

The US has offered a $50m (£37m) reward for information leading to his arrest, accusing him of connections to drug trafficking and criminal organisations – claims he denies.

President Nicolas Maduro. Pic: Reuters
Image:
President Nicolas Maduro. Pic: Reuters

Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday evening. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday evening. Pic: Reuters

US targets ‘drug boats’

Mr Trump also alleged Venezuela had sent a significant number of prisoners, including individuals from mental health facilities, into the US, though he did not specify the border through which they reportedly entered.

On Tuesday, he announced America had targeted a small boat suspected of drug trafficking in waters off the Venezuelan coast, resulting in the deaths of six people.

According to the president’s post on social media, all those killed were aboard the vessel.

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Footage of the strike was released by Donald Trump on social media. Pic: Truth Social
Image:
Footage of the strike was released by Donald Trump on social media. Pic: Truth Social

The incident marked the fifth such fatal strike in the Caribbean, as the Trump administration continues to classify suspected drug traffickers as unlawful combatants to be confronted with military force.

War secretary Pete Hegseth authorised the strike, according to Mr Trump, who released a video of the operation.

The black-and-white footage showed a small boat seemingly stationary on the water. It is struck by a projectile from above and explodes, then drifts while burning for several seconds.

Mr Trump said the “lethal kinetic strike” was in international waters and targeted a boat travelling along a well-known smuggling route.

There has also been a significant increase in US military presence in the southern Caribbean, with at least eight warships, a submarine, and F-35 jets stationed in Puerto Rico.

‘Bomb the boats’: Bold move or dangerous overreach?

It’s a dramatic – and risky – escalation of US strategy for countering narcotics.

Having carried out strikes on Venezuelan “drug boats” at sea, Trump says he’s “looking a” targeting cartels on land.

He claims the attacks, which have claimed 27 lives, have saved up to 50,000 Americans.

By framing bombings as a blow against “narcoterrorists”, he’s attempting to justify them as self-defence – but the administration has veered into murky territory.

Under international law, such strikes require proof of imminent threat – something the White House has yet to substantiate.

Strategically, Trump’ss militarised approach could backfire, forcing traffickers to adapt, and inflaming tensions with Venezuela and allies wary of US intervention.

Without transparent evidence or congressional oversight, some will view the move less like counterterrorism and more like vigilantism on the seas.

The president’s “bomb the boats” rhetoric signals a shift back to shock and awe tactics in foreign policy, under the banner of fighting drugs.

Supporters will hail it as a bold, decisive move, but to critics it’s reckless posturing that undermines international law.

The strikes send a message of strength, but the legal, moral and geopolitical costs are still being calculated.

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