Was the private jet believed to be carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin brought down, and what exactly happened to it?
Several theories have been put forward as to what may have caused the plane to come hurtling to the ground as it travelled from Moscow to St Petersburg.
Using footage of the crash which has emerged online, military analyst and former pilot Sean Bell points to four key things it shows that may provide hints as to what likely happened to the aircraft.
1. A missile strike
One image shows a “swirl of cloud” which doesn’t sit comfortably against the rest, Bell says.
Drawing on his own experience of flying combat aircraft, he explains that if a surface-to-air missile hit the plane, “you would see that sort of vapour trial in the final stages of its approach”.
“Therefore, either that could be an explosion, or it could be a surface-to-air missile system,” he says.
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2. ‘Smoke’ as plane plummets
Bell highlights what appears to be a trail of smoke coming from the wreckage of the plane, around halfway into its descent.
He says this is “almost certainly not smoke” and is probably “fuel venting”.
“It’s a large quantity, that is a massive damage to the aircraft that’s caused that,” he adds.
3 and 4. Missing wing in the air – and a wing on the ground
Image: Video footage apparently shows the plane missing a wing
Footage of the plane closer to the ground appears to show it with only one wing – which explains why it came down “vertically, not unlike a falling leaf”, says Bell.
The fourth point to note is that other pictures from the crash site show a wing “distinctly separate”, he adds.
“Now, you put all of that together… there’s lots of reasons why that might have occurred, but that is not a natural accident,” Bell explains.
Image: Wreckage of the wing seen near the crash site in the Tver region, Russia
“That is a catastrophe that’s happened in the air… there were rumours that a case of wine [containing a bomb] was put on the aircraft at the last minute.
“The trouble with that theory is that generally speaking, [an explosion] inside an aircraft blows it out and therefore probably wouldn’t take a wing off, whereas a surface-to-air missile system or an air-to-air missile system generally tries to seek out the juiciest, meatiest part of an aircraft, and that is where the wing spar joins the main aircraft.
“That would explain why it potentially could rip a wing off. And as soon as it did that, the fate of the aircraft was sealed.”
Is there a link to Putin?
Asked why – if he was behind the crash – Vladimir Putin didn’t target Prigozhin sooner after the short-lived mutiny two months ago, Bell said “systematically, President Putin has been dismembering” the Wagner boss’ business ever since.
“Tellingly, it was a couple of days ago where we saw the last video image of Yevgeny Prigozhin in a field, potentially in Africa, alone. He wasn’t surrounded by anybody else.
“All of a sudden, Prigozhin looks a slightly sad man alone and watching his empire dismembered. And at that stage, most military analysts were saying: ‘this is the end’.
“President Putin is acting as judge, jury and executioner and he is no more. That’s what we’re led to believe.”
The Embraer Legacy 600 plane was travelling from Moscow to St Petersburg on Wednesday.
Flight tracking website Flightradar24 says it first received data from the aircraft at 2.46pm local time.
Image: Yevgeny Prigozhin’s jet was travelling away from Moscow and crashed near Tver. Pic: Flightradar24
The aircraft climbed to a cruising altitude of 28,000ft between 2.59pm and 3.11pm.
Nine minutes later, it had stopped transmitting data.
“Even though the aircraft was not transmitting position information, other data like altitude, speed, vertical rate, and autopilot settings were broadcast. It is this data that provides some insight into the final moments of the flight,” Flightradar24 said.
At 3.19pm, the aircraft descended briefly before climbing to a maximum altitude of 30,100ft.
Image: Altitude data shows what happened to Prigozhin’s jet. Pic: Flightradar24
It then descended back to roughly 27,500ft, before climbing and then levelling off again.
It then started to descend sharply, with the final data showing it at 19,725ft.
Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff will meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, as diplomacy intensifies over ending the war in Ukraine.
Washington is “very optimistic” about reaching an agreement, Donald Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt said ahead of the trip, after Ukrainian officials met US representatives on Sunday.
Yet both sides have indicated there’s a long road ahead before resolving key sticking points, namely control of Ukrainian territory and post-war security guarantees for Kyiv.
Mr Putin implied last week he would stop fighting only when Ukrainian troops withdrew from all four Ukrainian regions that Russia illegally annexed in 2022.
Russia does not fully control these regions, but its armed forces made their biggest advance in Ukraine for a year in November, capturing 270 square miles, according to analysis by the AFP news agency.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said repeatedly that giving up territory is not an option.
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Europe ‘exposed’
He was in Paris on Monday for talks with French president Emmanuel Macron, who held a joint call with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and reiterated his support for Ukrainian sovereignty.
But the diplomacy set in motion by Trump’s peace plan “painfully exposed” Europe’s weakness, Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies wrote in a recent commentary.
“Despite being the main source of Ukraine’s economic and military support, it is marginal to the diplomacy of the war and has done little more than offer amendments to America’s draft peace plan.”
All the while, European allies have been the target of so-called “hybrid warfare”, not least repeated airspace incursions by Russian drones and fighter jets.
NATO’s most senior military officer went as far as to say on Monday that the alliance could consider a “pre-emptive strike” against Russia a “defensive action”, according to the Financial Times.
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone’s remarks were condemned as extremely irresponsible and an attempt to escalate tension by the Kremlin.
Rescue and recovery and efforts are under way in parts of South and Southeast Asia where the number of those killed in devastating floods continues to rise.
The extreme weather last week has killed at least 366 people in Sri Lanka, 604 in Indonesia, and 176 in Thailand, according to authorities.
Rescuers are searching for 464 missing people in Indonesia, and a further 367 in Sri Lanka, after a cyclone and other storms triggered flooding and landslides in the region.
In a post on X, the King and Queen Camilla said they were “deeply saddened” to hear about devastating storms and added their “heartfelt condolences” to the families of those who have died.
Image: Landslides in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP
Image: A man wades through the flooded street, following heavy rainfall in Wellampitiya, Sri Lanka. Pic: Reuters
Image: A man uses a makeshift raft at a flooded area, following Cyclone Ditwah in Kelaniya, Sri Lanka. Pic: Reuters
Hundreds of thousands in shelters in Sri Lanka
Sri Lankan authorities said about 218,000 people were in temporary shelters after downpours that triggered landslides, primarily in the tea-growing central hill country.
People were seen salvaging belongings from flooded homes along the banks of the Kelani River, near the capital Colombo on Monday.
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Meanwhile, train and flight services have resumed after being disrupted last week, but schools stayed closed, officials said.
Cyclone Ditwah was the “largest and most challenging” natural disaster in Sri Lanka’s history, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said.
Image: A landslide survivor crosses a section of a damaged road in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP
Image: Landslide survivors salvage belongings at the site of a landslide in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP
Image: A man uses his scarf to protect himself from the rain in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, in Chennai, India. Pic: Reuters
The cyclone also brought heavy rain to India’s southern state of Tamil Nadu over the weekend, with authorities saying three people were killed in rain-related incidents.
The storm, which as of 5pm UK time on Monday was about 20km (12 miles) off the coast of the state capital Chennai, has weakened into a “deep depression” and was expected to weaken further in the next few hours, weather officials said.
Image: Amount of rainfall expected in South and Southeast Asia in the next 48 hours
Over a million affected in Indonesia
More than 28,000 homes have been damaged in Indonesia, with 1.4 million people affected by torrential rains following a tropical storm that formed in the Malacca Strait.
The country’s president, Prabowo Subianto, called it a catastrophe and pledged to rebuild infrastructure as he visited the three affected provinces on Monday, where nearly 300,000 people have been displaced by the flooding.
Image: Rescuers search for flood victims in Tanah Datar, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Pic: AP
Image: A flooded field in Indonesia’s West Sumatra province. Pic: Reuters
Image: Rescuers search for victims at a village affected by flash flooding, in Agam, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Pic: AP
‘Nothing remains’
“The water just rose up into the house and we were afraid, so we fled. Then we came back on Friday, and the house was gone, destroyed,” said Afrianti, 41, who only goes by one name and lives in West Sumatra’s Padang city.
She and her family of nine have made their own tent shelter beside the single wall that remains of their home.
“My home and business are gone, the shop is gone. Nothing remains. I can only live near this one remaining wall,” she said.
Highest one-day rainfall in Thai city for 300 years
In Thailand, flooding in eight southern provinces affected about three million people and led to a major mobilisation of its military to evacuate critical patients from hospitals and reach people stuck in floodwaters for days.
In the worst-affected city of Hat Yai, a southern trading hub, 335mm (13 inches) of rain fell on 21 November, its highest single-day tally in 300 years, followed by days of unrelenting downpours.
Image: More than three million people have been impacted by floods in Thailand
Image: People move a car damaged by floods in Songkhla province, southern Thailand. Pic: AP
King offers ‘heartfelt condolences’
King Charles and Queen Camilla responded to the crisis in a statement posted on X and praised the work of emergency responders: “We wish to express our heartfelt condolences to the families of those who have so tragically lost their lives.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with the many whose homes have been destroyed and to all who are awaiting news of loved ones missing.
“These disasters remind us of the increasingly urgent need to restore the balance and harmony of Nature.”
Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnivirakul expects residents to be able to return home within seven days, a government spokesperson said on Monday.
The first batch of compensation payments was set to be distributed on Monday, starting with 239m baht (£5.6m) for 26,000 people, the spokesperson added.
In Malaysia there have been at least three deaths and authorities are still on alert for a second and third wave of flooding as 11,600 remain in evacuation centres.
Sir Keir Starmer has warned China poses “real national security threats to the United Kingdom”.
But the prime minister also described China as a “nation of immense scale, ambition and ingenuity” and a “defining force in technology, trade and global governance”.
“The UK needs a China policy that recognises this reality,” he added in a speech at the Guildhall in London.
“Instead, for years we have blown hot and cold.
“So our response will not be driven by fear, nor softened by illusion. It will be grounded in strength, clarity and sober realism.”
Image: Prime Minister Keir Starmer giving his speech. Pic: Reuters
Describing the absence of engagement with China – the world’s second-biggest economy – as “staggering” and “a dereliction of duty”, Sir Keir said: “This is not a question of balancing economic and security considerations. We don’t trade off security in one area, for a bit more economic access somewhere else.
“Protecting our security is non-negotiable – our first duty. But by taking tough steps to keep us secure, we enable ourselves to cooperate in other areas.”
Sir Keir’s remarks come after MPs and parliamentarians were warned last month of new attempts to spy on them by China.
That case led to controversy over how the government under Labour responded to the Crown Prosecution Service’s requests for evidence.
Image: Speech at the annual Lady Mayor’s Banquet. Pic: Reuters
At the time, Sir Keir sought to blame the previous Conservative government for the issues, which centred on whether China could be designated an “enemy” under First World War-era legislation.
Meanwhile, Sky News understands the prime minister is set to approve plans for a controversial Chinese “super embassy” in central London.
A final decision on the planning application for the former Royal Mint site near the Tower of London is due on 10 December, after numerous previous delays.
Sir Keir is also understood to be preparing for a likely visit to China in the new year.
Since he was elected last year, Sir Keir has been active on the world stage, trumpeting deals with the US, India and the EU and leading the “coalition of the willing” in support of Ukraine.
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PM preparing for likely China visit
But he has also faced criticism from his opponents, who accuse him of spending too much time out of the UK attending international summits rather than focusing on domestic issues.
Sir Keir offered a defence of his approach, describing it as “the biggest shift in British foreign policy since Brexit” and “a decisive move to face outward again”.
While saying he would “always respect” the Brexit vote as a “fair, democratic expression”, he said the way the UK’s departure from the EU had been “sold and delivered” was “simply wrong”.
He said: “Wild promises were made to the British people and not fulfilled. We are still dealing with the consequences today.”
In his speech on Monday, the prime minister accused opposition politicians of offering a “corrosive, inward-looking attitude” on international affairs.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters
Taking aim at those who advocate leaving the European Convention on Human Rights or NATO, he said they offered “grievance rather than hope” and “a declinist vision of a lesser Britain”.
Sir Keir said: “Moreover, it is a fatal misreading of the moment, ducking the fundamental challenge posed by a chaotic world – a world which is more dangerous and unstable than at any point for a generation, where international events reach directly into our lives, whether we like it or not.”
He added: “In these times, we deliver for Britain by looking outward with renewed purpose and pride, not by shrinking back. In these times, internationalism is patriotism.”
Responding to the prime minister’s speech, shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel said: “From China’s continued flouting of economic rules to transnational repression of Hong Kongers in Britain, Starmer’s ‘reset’ with Beijing is a naive one-way street, which puts Britain at risk while Beijing gets everything it wants.
“Starmer continues to kowtow to China and is captivated by half-baked promises of trade.
“Coming just days after the latest Chinese plot to interfere in our democracy was exposed, his love letter to the Chinese Communist Party is a desperate ploy to generate economic growth following his budget of lies and is completely ill-judged.
“While China poses a clear threat to Britain, China continues to back Iran and Russia, and plots to undermine our institutions. Keir Starmer has become Beijing’s useful idiot in Britain.”