The pressure building on migration means tough choices for the prime minister.
Rishi Sunak has made stopping small boats his priority, but it’s a big rise in legal migration which is the story in these figures.
The number of skilled worker visas is up by two-thirds in the year to June 2023 to more than half a million.
It’s driven by big rises in the numbers of people coming to work in health and care – both of which are struggling to recruit.
International students – a success story for universities – are up to 657,000 if you include their dependants, which the government has plans to introduce limits on.
Now that free movement has ended, work visas – especially for skilled work – are easier to come by than before Brexit.
The numbers are no longer strictly capped, and neither is the time limit.
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Applicants who stay here for five years can settle permanently in the UK and eventually apply for citizenship.
Some advocates of Brexit and the Australian-style points system said this was how the system should work – that if there is a shortage in a certain sector, it should be easier to bring people in.
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The political problem is that the rapidly rising number of work visas means more migration overall, and that’s the opposite of what the government promised when elected.
Net migration – the difference between the number of people arriving in the UK and leaving – is already at a record high of more than 600,000.
The 2019 manifesto dropped the commitment to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, after years of failing to meet it.
But Rishi Sunak has promised to bring migration down overall, and it is running at around three times the levels at the last election.
Ministers point to unprecedented circumstances in the past two years, including people being resettled from the violence in Ukraine and unrest in Hong Kong, and those numbers are levelling off.
But the work visas will, on these trends, continue to climb higher.
John Vine, the former chief of borders and immigration, has said reports about abuse of the system should trigger an investigation into whether it is functioning properly.
A small group of Tories called the New Conservatives – opposed by some others in their party – is already claiming it’s time to cut back on skilled work visas, even in the social care sector, which has 165,000 vacancies.
Then there is Sunak’s battle with irregular migration.
The government has passed the Illegal Migration Act to try to ensure that those who come on small boats are detained and removed.
But the backlog of cases – and hotel bills alongside it – is at a record 175,457 people awaiting an initial decision.
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The prime minister promised to get through the backlog of “legacy” cases – those lodged before June 2022 – by the end of this year, despite warnings by the National Audit Office that it was unrealistic given the number of decisions required.
The cases in that group are now down a bit to 67,870, requiring a big increase in the number of decisions to get through it.
With Labour now taking aim at an asylum system “in complete chaos”, Rishi Sunak faces criticism from all sides.
Sir Keir Starmer has said he will defend the decisions made in the budget “all day long” amid anger from farmers over inheritance tax changes.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced last month in her key speech that from April 2026, farms worth more than £1m will face an inheritance tax rate of 20%, rather than the standard 40% applied to other land and property.
The announcement has sparked anger among farmers who argue this will mean higher food prices, lower food production and having to sell off land to pay for the tax.
Sir Keir defended the budget as he gave his first speech as prime minister at the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, North Wales, where farmers have been holding a tractor protest outside.
Sir Keir admitted: “We’ve taken some extremely tough decisions on tax.”
He said: “I will defend facing up to the harsh light of fiscal reality. I will defend the tough decisions that were necessary to stabilise our economy.
“And I will defend protecting the payslips of working people, fixing the foundations of our economy, and investing in the future of Britain and the future of Wales. Finally, turning the page on austerity once and for all.”
He also said the budget allocation for Wales was a “record figure” – some £21bn for next year – an extra £1.7bn through the Barnett Formula, as he hailed a “path of change” with Labour governments in Wales and Westminster.
And he confirmed a £160m investment zone in Wrexham and Flintshire will be going live in 2025.
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‘PM should have addressed the protesters’
Among the hundreds of farmers demonstrating was Gareth Wyn Jones, who told Sky News it was “disrespectful” that the prime minister did not mention farmers in his speech.
He said “so many people have come here to air their frustrations. He (Starmer) had an opportunity to address the crowd. Even if he was booed he should have been man enough to come out and talk to the people”.
He said farmers planned to deliver Sir Keir a letter which begins with “‘don’t bite the hand that feeds you”.
Mr Wyn Jones told Sky News the government was “destroying” an industry that was already struggling.
“They’re destroying an industry that’s already on its knees and struggling, absolutely struggling, mentally, emotionally and physically. We need government support not more hindrance so we can produce food to feed the nation.”
He said inheritance tax changes will result in farmers increasing the price of food: “The poorer people in society aren’t going to be able to afford good, healthy, nutritious British food, so we have to push this to government for them to understand that enough is enough, the farmers can’t take any more of what they’re throwing at us.”
Mr Wyn Jones disputed the government’s estimation that only 500 farming estates in the UK will be affected by the inheritance tax changes.
“Look, a lot of farmers in this country are in their 70s and 80s, they haven’t handed their farms down because that’s the way it’s always been, they’ve always known there was never going to be inheritance tax.”
On Friday, Sir Keir addressed farmers’ concerns, saying: “I know some farmers are anxious about the inheritance tax rules that we brought in two weeks ago.
“What I would say about that is, once you add the £1m for the farmland to the £1m that is exempt for your spouse, for most couples with a farm wanting to hand on to their children, it’s £3m before anybody pays a penny in inheritance tax.”
Ministers said the move will not affect small farms and is aimed at targeting wealthy landowners who buy up farmland to avoid paying inheritance tax.
But analysis this week said a typical family farm would have to put 159% of annual profits into paying the new inheritance tax every year for a decade and could have to sell 20% of their land.
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The Country and Land Business Association (CLA), which represents owners of rural land, property and businesses in England and Wales, found a typical 200-acre farm owned by one person with an expected profit of £27,300 would face a £435,000 inheritance tax bill.
The plan says families can spread the inheritance tax payments over 10 years, but the CLA found this would require an average farm to allocate 159% of its profits each year for a decade.
To pay that, successors could be forced to sell 20% of their land, the analysis found.