Tesla Supercharger network to become $10 to $20 billion a year business, says Wedbush
A Wedbush analyst is estimating that Tesla’s Supercharger network will become a $10 to $20 billion a year business by the end of the decade.
When Tesla first launched the Supercharger network in 2012, it did it because no one else was deploying DC fast-charging stations for long-distance travel.
It was doing it as a service to its owners.
At the time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk even said that the Supercharger network would “never be a profit center” for the automaker – meaning that it didn’t plan to make money from it. It was first intended to help them sell electric cars.
But to be fair, not many people could have predicted what it would have become, and it’s the only global DC fast-charging network and by far the most extensive charging network in North America.
With Tesla now having a fleet of millions of vehicles using the network and opening it up to EVs from other automakers, financial analysts are starting to see the Supercharger network has a massive business that is going to partly replace gas stations, and they want to value it.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who has been covering Tesla for a long time, came out with a new note to clients today in which he stated that he believes the Supercharger network will represent 3% to 6% of Tesla’s total revenue or $10 to $20 billion in revenue by 2030.
Ives wrote:
With the introduction of Tesla’s Magic Dock, an adapter that will allow non-Tesla EVs to charge on the NACS standard, this provides the company an incremental opportunity to further expand its charging footprint to the entire EV fleet.
The analyst added:
We view this as another strategic move by Musk & Co. in the long-term story as the supercharger network is a large monetization opportunity with the company now taking more market share in the charging network ecosystem domestically while laying the foundation for a successful EV transformation over the next decade.
Ives is one of the most highly ranked analysts on the financial analyst ranking system TipRank – #121 out of 8,527 Wall Street analysts.
Electrek’s Take
I always like to point out that DC fast-charging doesn’t really replace the gas station business because most of the EV charging is going to be level 2 charging at home and businesses.
But DC fast-charging is an important piece of the puzzle as it enables long-distance driving.
It is not going to be as big as gas stations, but it is going to be big business, and Tesla is going to be a huge part of it. Dan’s analysis sounds about right to me.
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Environment
U.S. could reach deal with Canada that avoids oil and gas tariffs, energy secretary says
HOUSTON — The U.S. could reach an agreement with Canada that avoids tariffs on imports of oil, gas and other energy resources, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Monday.
Wright said such a scenario is “certainly is possible” but “it’s too early to say” in response to a question from CNBC during a press conference at the CERAWeek by S&P Global. The U.S. is in “active dialogue” with Canada and Mexico, the energy secretary said.
President Donald Trump has paused until April 2 tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports that are compliant with the agreement which governs trade in North America. Trump originally imposed broad 25% tariffs on goods from both countries as well as lesser 10% tariffs on energy imports from Canada.
It’s unclear, however, how much of the oil, gas and other energy that the U.S. imports from Canada is compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Wright declined to provide specifics when CNBC asked how much of those imports are USMCA compliant.
“I’m going to avoid the details for now,” Wright said. The energy secretary said, “We can get to no tariffs or very low tariffs but it’s got to be reciprocal” in an interview with CNBC’s Brian Sullivan.
Canada’s energy minister, Jonathan Wilkinson, warned last week that energy prices will rise in the U.S. if the tariffs on energy imports go into full effect.
“We will see higher gasoline prices as a function of energy, higher electricity prices from hydroelectricity from Canada, higher home heating prices associated with natural gas that comes from Canada and higher automobile prices,” Wilkinson told CNBC’s Megan Cassella in an interview.
The U.S. has been the largest producer of crude oil and natural gas in the world for years. But many refiners in the U.S. are dependent on heavy crude imported from Canada. The U.S. imported 6.6 million barrels of crude oil per day on average in December, more than 60% of which came from Canada, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Wright acknowledged that the tariffs are creating uncertainty in energy markets as negotiations continue.
“We’re in the middle of negotiations for where things are going to go with tariffs, so that feels frightening and gripping right now but this time will pass,” Wright said. “Deals will be made, we’ll get certainty and we’ll have a positive economic environment for Americans going forward.”
U.S. crude oil fell more than 1% Monday to close at $66.03 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent closed at $69.28 per barrel. Crude oil futures have pulled back substantially as Trump’s trade policy creates uncertainty and OPEC+ has confirmed that it plans to gradually bring back 2.2 million barrels per day of production beginning next month.
Apple is rolling out a notable update to Apple Maps EV Routing for Ford drivers. Starting today, Ford Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning drivers can use Apple Maps EV Routing via CarPlay to plan road trips that include Tesla Superchargers – or any station that uses the North American Charging Standard (NACS) connector.
As I’ve explained before, Ford began shipping adapters CCS to NACS adapters that allow Mach-E and Lightning drivers to charge at Tesla Superchargers last year. Until today, however, Apple Maps was unaware of this change. This meant Apple Maps EV Routing would only route Mach-E and Lightning drivers to CCS charging stations, even though a route with Tesla Superchargers might’ve been more efficient.
With today’s change, Apple Maps via CarPlay will now include NACS fast charging stations, such as compatible Tesla Superchargers, in recommended route planning recommendations.
In a blog post, Ford explains:
Apple Maps EV Routing in CarPlay allows drivers to input their route and can view the estimated battery level they will have when they get to a destination, as well as suggested charging stations along the way if charging is needed. Previously, Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning drivers would have to manually open another app, then enter a NACS fast charger as a destination to have it added to their route. Now, with the Apple Maps EV Routing and NACS fast charger integration, the experience will be more seamless.
How to Use Apple Maps EV Routing in CarPlay:
- Connect your Apple iPhone to CarPlay.
- Open Apple Maps, go to Settings, and confirm your preferred charging network(s) – make sure you select a NACS fast charging station, such as Tesla Supercharger. You only have to do this once.
- Enter a destination.
- Apple Maps will then calculate the estimated state of charge you will have when you get to a destination.
- If a charge is required, depending on the fastest route, it will automatically route you to a NACS fast charging station.*
This is a significant update to the Apple Maps EV Routing experience for Ford drivers. Next up on my wishlist is support for battery preconditioning when using Apple Maps EV Routing. Android Auto added this feature last October.
The new feature is available now to iPhone users running iOS 17 or later. No software update is required for your car.
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James Murdoch, a Tesla board member and friend of CEO Elon Musk, has confirmed that he sold about $13 million in stock today as the stock (TSLA) crashed.
There has been a lot of insider trading at Tesla lately, and by trading, we mean selling – cause no insider is ever buying at Tesla.
We recently reported on Kimball Musk, Elon’s brother, and Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Taneja Vaibhav recently selling ahead of a recent drop in the company’s stock price.
Tesla’s chairwoman, Robyn Denholm, also sold $33 million worth of Tesla shares last week and over $100 million in the last 3 months.
Now, it’s James Murdoch’s turn. The Tesla board member just confirmed, through a required SEC filing, that he sold 54,776 Tesla shares for just over $13 million today:
He sold as Tesla’s stock crashed 15% today. It is now down more than 50% from its all-time high just a few months ago.
Murdoch was appointed to Tesla’s board in 2017.
He is better known as the son of media mogul Rupert Murdoch and the former CEO of 21st Century Fox from 2015 to 2019.
Murdoch was one of the Tesla board directors who was forced to return almost $1 billion in cash and stock options to Tesla as part of a settlement for over-compensation.
Electrek’s Take
Tesla insiders are unloading, and those are just the ones we know about. Public companies only have to report insider trading for board directors and listed top executives.
For the latter, Tesla purposefully only lists 3 people: Elon, Vaibhav Taneja, Tesla’s CFO, and Tom Zhu, whose role at Tesla has bit quite fluid in recent years.
Therefore, we don’t know about the dozens of other top executives potentially selling their shares right now amid a giant correction.
It’s really suspicious because there are clear top leaders at Tesla who are often on Tesla’s earnings calls, and they are not even listed, like Lars Moravy, for example.
But it’s par for the course at Tesla, which has some of the worst corporate governance I have ever seen. It’s truly shameful.
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