JPMorgan forecasts limited downside for crypto markets: Report
The cryptocurrency market’s recent downtrend appears to be coming to an end, as JPMorgan’s latest research suggests that most long-position liquidations have been completed.
According to a Bloomberg report, analysts for the American bank estimate that the liquidations are “largely behind us.” The prediction is based on the open interest in Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicating that the selling trend might soon decelerate. Open interest, which refers to active futures contracts, serves as an indicator of market sentiment and the strength of price trends.
Bitcoin’s open interest decline is seen as a sign that the current price trend could be weakening, according to analysts. “As a result, we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term.”
Crypto prices have been on the downtrend in recent weeks due to declining optimism around regulatory developments in the United States, notes the report. On Aug. 26, Bitcoin is trading close to $26,000, down 11.27% over the past 30 days, according to Cointelegraph Markets.
Positive developments in the previous months boosted Bitcoin’s price. Among them were a series of applications for the first U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to Bitcoin’s spot price. The list of players waiting for regulatory approval includes BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK Investments and 21Shares, as well as several other asset managers.
Ripple Labs’ partial victory against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was another positive development. However, this optimism is gradually fading, notes the analysis, as traders await Bitcoin ETF decisions and the SEC’s appeal against Ripple brings renewed uncertainty.
The scenario contributes to a “new round of legal uncertainty” for crypto markets, making them sensitive to future developments, according to JPMorgan’s team. External market conditions also played a role in the crypto market’s decline, including the rising U.S. real yields, and concerns about China’s economic growth.
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission and crypto exchange Gemini have asked to pause the regulator’s suit over the exchange’s Gemini Earn program, saying they want to discuss a potential resolution.
In an April 1 letter to New York federal court judge Edgardo Ramos, lawyers representing the SEC and Genesis requested a 60-day hold on the case and that all deadlines be pulled “to allow the parties to explore a potential resolution.”
“In this case, the parties submit that it is in each of their interests to stay this matter while they consider a potential resolution and agree that no party or non-party would be prejudiced by a stay,” the letter states.
The lawyers added that a stay was in the court’s interest as “a resolution would conserve judicial resources” and proposed that a joint status report be submitted within 60 days after the entry of the stay.
The SEC sued Gemini and crypto lending firm Genesis Global Capital in January 2023, alleging they offered unregistered securities through the Gemini Earn program.
In March 2024, Genesis agreed to pay $21 million to settle charges related to the lending program, but the enforcement case against Gemini remains outstanding.
Letter from SEC and Genesis Global requesting extension of stay. Source: CourtListener
The letter did not specify what a possible resolution would entail, but the SEC has dropped several lawsuits it launched against crypto companies under the Biden administration, including against Coinbase, Ripple and Kraken.
Related: Will new US SEC rules bring crypto companies onshore?
In February, Gemini said the SEC closed a separate investigation into the firm as the regulator winds back its crypto enforcement under President Donald Trump.
“The SEC cost us tens of millions of dollars in legal bills alone and hundreds of millions in lost productivity, creativity, and innovation. Of course, Gemini is not alone,” Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss said at the time.
OpenSea, Crypto.com and Uniswap, among others, have also recently reported that the SEC had closed similar probes into their companies that were investigating alleged breaches of securities laws.
Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29
Two Republicans who received a combined $1.5 million from the crypto-backed political action committee (PAC) Fairshake will enter the US House after winning special elections in Florida.
Republican Jimmy Patronis won the vacant seat in Florida’s 1st Congressional District to replace Matt Gaetz, taking 57% of the vote to defeat Democrat Gay Valimont, according to AP News data.
Randy Fine also took Florida’s 6th Congressional District with 56.7% of the vote to beat his Democratic rival, public school teacher Josh Weil, and fill a seat left vacant by Mike Waltz, who took a job as White House national security adviser.
Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts — located in Florida’s western panhandle and along the state’s northeast coast — have been controlled by Republicans for roughly 30 years, but their lead has narrowed in recent years.
Fairshake, a PAC backed by crypto industry giants including Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz, gave Fine around $1.16 million in advertising spending and funneled $347,000 to Patronis to support his campaign.
Both Republicans have expressed support for the crypto industry, with Fine stating in a Jan. 14 X post that “Floridians want crypto innovation!”
Source: Randy Fine
Fairshake and its affiliates poured around $170 million into the 2024 US presidential and congressional elections to back candidates who committed to supporting the crypto industry.
The wins by Patronis and Fine increased Republican representation in the House to 220 seats, with the Democrats holding 213 seats.
There are two vacant seats to be filled after Texas and Arizona Democrats Sylvester Turner and Raúl Grijalva died on March 5 and March 13, respectively.
Florida can expect to see a crypto-friendly regulatory environment
The victories for Patronis and Fine likely mean that crypto legislation will continue to see support in the US capital.
The Republican Party would have maintained its House majority even if it lost both seats in Florida, but it would have made it more difficult for some of the recently introduced Republican-backed crypto bills to pass through the House and Senate.
Related: Florida bill proposes strict rules against online gambling
At the Digital Assets Summit on March 18, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna said he believes Congress “should be able to get” both a stablecoin and crypto market structure bill done this year.
Bills that could eventually make their way to the House include the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, which passed the Senate Banking Committee in an 18-6 vote on March 13.
Senator Cynthia Lummis also reintroduced a Bitcoin reserve bill about a week after the Trump administration announced the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on March 6, with the legislation referred to the Senate Banking Committee on March 11.
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Several British trade associations have asked Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office to appoint a special envoy dedicated to crypto and for a dedicated action plan for digital assets and blockchain technology.
In a March 31 letter, the coalition of six UK digital economy trade bodies urged Starmer’s special adviser on business and investment, Varun Chandra, for a “greater strategic focus and alignment to deliver investment, growth and jobs” for the crypto industry.
The group, which consisted of the UK Cryptoasset Business Council, Global Digital Finance, The Payments Association, Digital Currencies Governance Group, the Crypto Council for Innovation and techUK, noted the US policy shift on crypto under President Donald Trump and his appointment of a crypto czar.
Britain’s commitment to an economic trade deal focused on technological cooperation with the US “presents a significant opportunity to mirror the United States’ ambition in fostering leadership in blockchain, digital assets, and other emerging financial technologies,” the letter stated.
The group recommended that the UK appoint a blockchain special envoy, similar to the US, to coordinate policy, foster innovation, and position the country competitively in global markets.
The trade bodies also called for the development of a dedicated government action plan for crypto and blockchain technology, including a concierge service to attract high-potential firms.
They added that the government should acknowledge and leverage the commonalities between blockchain, quantum computing and artificial intelligence technologies, including potential applications for government services.
Another recommendation was to create a high-level industry-government-regulator engagement forum to ensure informed decision-making and cross-sector collaboration.
The UK crypto and tech associations lobbying the government for a policy shift. Source: LinkedIn
“With deep pools of talent, access to capital, world-class academic institutions, and sophisticated regulators, the UK provides an environment where digital assets and blockchain innovation can thrive,” they stated.
Related: UK should tax crypto buyers to boost stock investing, economy, says banker
The coalition argues that crypto and blockchain technology could boost the UK economy by 57 billion British pounds ($73.6 billion) over the next decade, with the sector potentially increasing global gross domestic product by 1.39 trillion pounds ($1.8 trillion) by 2030.
Tom Griffiths, the co-founder and managing partner of crypto compliance advisory firm BitCompli, said in response to the letter on LinkedIn that the Financial Conduct Authority “has a lot of talent and a good sight of future plans, but the UK is definitely losing pace with Dubai, Singapore, and other EU jurisdictions.”
“Now is the time for the FCA to act, or the UK will lose out on this huge opportunity, which is digital assets and all the benefits this sector can bring, not only now but over the next 20 years,” he added.
Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29
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