Passan: Ohtani’s magic cut short by limits of the body
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
Every minute of the past three years Shohei Ohtani spent on the baseball field was a gift. The most perfect ball-playing specimen ever to wear a uniform, simultaneously one of the best hitters and pitchers in a sport that for a century had demanded players choose one track or the other, Ohtani recalibrated what the game could be. He was baseball at its zenith. He is baseball, period.
What everyone took for granted, as he launched majestic home runs and unfurled unfair pitches, was the Faustian bargain underpinning it all — that as Ohtani trafficked in the impossible, he was relying on a wholly imperfect vessel to deliver it. Ohtani’s most formidable opponent was never the pitchers or hitters he faced. It was his body and its capacity to withstand everything he asked of it. Ligaments do not care about legend.
Ohtani being Ohtani, he reacted to the news that he had suffered a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his right elbow in Game 1 of a doubleheader Wednesday by batting second for his Los Angeles Angels in Game 2. Ohtani will not pitch again this season. He might need another Tommy John surgery. His already-complicated free agency, just two months away, is now even more confusing. And Ohtani knew all of it in the second game, which, in hindsight, makes a moment that looked so wholesome at the time so heartbreaking now.
In the fifth inning, Ohtani doubled — you can still swing the bat with a UCL tear — and awaiting him at second base stood Cincinnati shortstop Elly De La Cruz, a 6-foot-5, switch-hitting, homer-crushing, 21-year-old rookie wunderkind who also happens to be the fastest man in baseball. A full-blown unicorn. And even to him Ohtani is something different altogether. To introduce himself, De La Cruz extended his right index finger and poked 29-year-old Ohtani on the arm five times, chuckling, as if to say: Are you even real?
It’s the sort of question anyone who watched Ohtani asked constantly. And Wednesday’s lesson was that he’s all too real — not a baseball automaton sent from the future to transfix but flesh and blood. Like any ballplayer, always one pitch, one swing, one stride away from a muscle or tendon or bone or ligament failing. Ohtani took on more than any other player: starting for the Angels once a week and serving as their designated hitter nightly. The job and its level of stress chipped away, little by little. And even then, Ohtani never accepted training at a reduced rate to give himself a break. Why would he? The work got him to this place.
And what a place it was. His native Japan served as the petri dish for Ohtani’s two-way experiment, and almost immediately upon his arrival to Major League Baseball as a 23-year-old in 2018, he cut a transcendent figure, his bat an awfully good sidekick to his vaunted arm. Then his UCL gave out that first season, and rehab didn’t heal it. The subsequent Tommy John surgery in October 2018 kept him off the mound in 2019 and might as well have in 2020.
It’s not that his return to form in 2021 was surprising — because to be surprised by Ohtani is a user error — but it was glorious. It could be done for a full season: 46 home runs in 155 games played, 130⅓ innings of 3.18 ERA ball over 23 starts, one unanimous American League MVP Award. And then, he showed it could be done two seasons in a row, with 2022 a little worse at the plate, a little better on the mound, undeniably MVP-worthy if not for Aaron Judge.
And now this year. Even by Ohtani’s standards it has been singular. He has been the best hitter in baseball, leading the big leagues in home runs (44), triples (7), OPS (1.069) and total bases (310). He has held opposing hitters to a .184 batting average, the lowest of all 146 pitchers who have thrown at least 70 innings. He entered 2023 with prospective suitors wondering whether he’d live up to earning the first $500 million free agent contract in baseball history, and by the middle of the season, a half-a-billion-dollar bid was liable to get a team laughed out of the room.
Perhaps the most fully formed version of Ohtani was the one we saw this spring: captain of World Baseball Classic-winning Team Japan, capper of the tournament with a strikeout of his friend and Angels teammate Mike Trout. It was a moment upon which baseball fans can reflect, perhaps wistfully, fearful that peak Ohtani has passed. It’s possible. Age is undefeated. The greatest predictor of a future arm injury is a past arm injury. Nobody, not even Ohtani, can avoid all aphorisms.
Now come questions. How bad is the tear? Will Ohtani try platelet-rich plasma again in an attempt to heal it, or is surgery a fait accompli? Regardless of Ohtani’s approach to fixing his elbow, he might not miss games for long. In 2019, seven months after surgery, Ohtani returned to DH full time as he did his Tommy John rehab for pitching. Back then, doctors considered it safe. But the demand on Ohtani’s arm far exceeds that of the typical hitter, and a second procedure leaves the elbow that much more fragile. The discussion on what’s best for Ohtani’s future will come into focus in the coming days as the Angels wind toward another playoff-free season and the expiration of his contract.
What the injury means for his future as a pitcher is bound to play a part in his free agency. The failure rate is overwhelming for players who have undergone the Tommy John procedure twice in a five-year span: Jameson Taillon, the most successful, returned and signed a four-year, $68 million free agent contract this winter. Daniel Hudson closed out a World Series. Drew Rasmussen grew into an elite starter — only to blow out a third time. Cole Ragans, a wildly talented 25-year-old, is looking the part for Kansas City but hasn’t thrown even 100 big league innings.
Of course, Ohtani does the things others can’t. He is not an outlier. He is the outlier. If he wants to be a starter again, he will be a starter again. He has earned that, and if one team doesn’t concur, Ohtani will find another that does. Because as much as the ligament tear muddies the valuation on Ohtani, whatever team is lucky enough to land him will get the biggest star in the game since Ken Griffey Jr., regardless of how many pitches he throws again. The past three years vaulted Ohtani to that rarefied place few baseball players go. He is, a century later, in achievement and prestige, Babe Ruth. And in talent, Ruth pales to Ohtani.
Ruth, remember, never played every day and pitched full time. He didn’t think it possible. Ohtani proved it so, hefty though the cost might have been. “It is a wonder he held up this long,” a person familiar with Ohtani’s routine said early Thursday morning, after the announcement of Ohtani’s UCL tear from Angels general manager Perry Minasian sent an off-hours thunderclap through the sport. The chatter was all the same, more or less. Why him? Why now? Why at all?
Totally fair questions all, but their implication — their negativity — didn’t seem to be of interest to the one person who had the right to ask them. If you really want to know who Shohei Ohtani is, and what he’s made of, look at his reaction when De La Cruz poked him. He could’ve turtled away, glowered, snapped, and he would’ve been well within his right to do any considering what he was now facing. Instead, Ohtani smiled and returned the compliment, marveling at De La Cruz’s incredible talent — a kid from Japan and a kid from the Dominican Republic conversant in the language that binds them: baseball.
Optimism is Ohtani’s choice. The last time he was at this juncture, he returned and evolved into the greatest baseball player anyone has seen. Doubt him at your peril.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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