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More than two months have passed since Yevgeny Prigozhin’s ill-fated rebellion against Moscow.

Despite President Putin surviving the biggest challenge to his authority to date, Prigozhin had defied expectations and survived the immediate post-coup purge.

However, it now appears that Yevgeny Prigozhin was living on borrowed time.

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Has Prigozhin’s demise strengthened Putin’s grip on power or has the beast that Putin created left a legacy that could yet prove a mortal blow to his former patron?

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What caused Prigozhin jet to come down?

President Putin has relied heavily on mercenaries, both in the war in Ukraine but also for exerting influence – and generating revenues – in Africa and beyond.

When Putin’s war in Ukraine was faltering, he turned to his former chef to leverage the Wagner mercenaries to deliver a rare battlefield success for Russian forces in Bakhmut.

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Putin knew that the urban battle for Bakhmut would be highly attritional, but bolstered by thousands of convict recruits, under Prigozhin’s brutal leadership, the mercenaries delivered.

Putin was able to channel significant government resources into Wagner contracts – to mutual benefit – knowing that the Russian population would be grateful that it was mercenary convicts (not conscripts) on the brutal frontline.

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Prigozhin death ‘deeply mysterious’

At its zenith, Wagner had over 50,000 fighters under contract.

Although Prigozhin was a wealthy oligarch, he was an “outsider” to the Moscow elite, but the Wagner group provided him a unique platform for influence.

When he voiced criticism of the poor battlefield performance of the Russian military, his narrative struck a chord with many Russian conscripts, emboldening Prigozhin. But, he was not indispensable.

Russian mercenaries had delivered success on the Ukrainian battlefields, but their lack of professionalism and their complete disregard for the Law of Armed Conflict directly led to Putin being indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Then, when the monster that Putin had created turned upon him in a failed rebellion, Putin recognised it was time to act.

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What now for the Wagner Group?

But first, Putin had to be careful not to make Prigozhin a martyr.

He was still a powerful and influential figure, and Putin could not afford to take chances. Instead – despite running the risk of appearing weak – Putin set about eroding the two pillars of Prigozhin’s power: his business interests and his mercenary group.

Prigozhin’s business success was inextricably linked to Putin – without the president’s patronage the oligarch’s empire was vulnerable, and was swiftly dismantled.

The existential threat of Wagner proved a more difficult challenge, however some of the mercenaries were assimilated into the Russian Ministry of Defence, some returned to their families, some were sent off to Africa under new MoD contracts, and some were sent to Belarus.

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Putin: ‘Prigozhin made serious mistakes’

With no contracts to pay salaries, Prigozhin’s power base gradually evaporated.

On Tuesday, Prigozhin was seen in a promotional video – alone – apparently touting for mercenary contracts in Africa.

However, the Russian MoD was doing the same, but offering their own, government backed, security solutions.

Prigozhin had run out of options. He was no longer a threat.

His power had been drained, and it was time for Putin to re-assert his authority.

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‘Everyone understands who is involved’

Days later, Yevgeny Prigozhin was pronounced dead, along with many of his former Wagner colleagues. Putin must have been relieved to see the end of that dangerous chapter of his presidency.

But, does this brazen and decisive move strengthen Putin’s hold on power?

Read more:
Putin raised up Prigozhin up and now seems to have destroyed him
Wagner likely to mutate and morph, but will once again be compliant to Putin’s will

This past week has been illuminating.

At the high-profile BRICS summit, Putin was unable to join other global leaders in person due to his ICC criminal indictment.

Russia’s attempt to re-assert its global status as a space power ended abruptly when a few days later India showed how it could be done.

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Prigozhin supporters gather to mourn

Despite Putin’s ambition to reassert Russia’s greatness Russia continues to lose gravitas on the world stage.

At home, Moscow is under nightly drone attack and without the brutal but effective Wagner mercenary forces Russia’s military is on the back foot in Ukraine.

And, a Ukrainian flag was seen flying over Crimea again – albeit briefly.

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Although Prigozhin’s apparent demise solves a short-term problem, this has not been a good week for the Russian president.

Prigozhin might have been vanquished, but his legacy lives on.

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‘Better late than never’: Palestinian minister says UK recognition of state would be ‘courageous step’

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'Better late than never': Palestinian minister says UK recognition of state would be 'courageous step'

Britain will be taking “a courageous step at a very difficult time” by officially recognising a Palestinian state, according to the authority’s foreign minister, who told Sky News she believes the announcement – expected in the coming days – will inspire more nations to follow suit.

The Palestinian Authority’s foreign minister, Varsen Aghabekian, told me Britain’s move was “better late than never”, and said “Britain, with its weight, can influence other countries to come forward and recognise, because that is the right thing to do”.

But she also said she is “very angry” with the White House over its “unwavering support” for Israel, and said that Israel’s refusal to pass on tax revenue was pushing Palestinian civil society to the brink of “collapse”.

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Could recognition of Palestine change the West Bank?

Aghabekian was speaking as Britain, along with France, Canada and Australia, prepares to recognise the State of Palestine officially at the United Nations.

She told me: “Britain has been supporting the existence and the flourishing of Israel for some time, but I think today Britain is looking at the matter objectively, in terms of the right of people, in terms of complying with international law, and in terms of the future of this area for both the Israelis and Palestinians.”

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She rejected the idea that recognising Palestine was a reward for Hamas terrorism, saying that “non-recognition” would also be a “reward to the extremists” and said that “if we wait until Israel decides it wants to go into negotiations with the Palestinians, then it won’t happen”.

Aghabekian told me she expected Gaza to be returned to the Palestinians, but I put it to her that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was being empowered by the diplomatic support he receives from America, and in particular, US President Donald Trump.

So is she angry with the White House? “Very angry, because I expect the White House and the United States of America to align with international law, with human rights, with having no double standards.

“This unwavering support for Israel, this blind support, is not only harming the Palestinians but also Israeli society.”

Read more:
What does recognising a Palestinian state mean?
Gaza could be ‘real estate bonanza’, Israeli minister says

Varsen Aghabekian speaks to Sky's Adam Parsons
Image:
Varsen Aghabekian speaks to Sky’s Adam Parsons

The state of Palestine is already recognised by three-quarters of the United Nations’ members. It comprises two separate territories – the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip. Together, they are officially known as the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

The West Bank has been subject to Israeli military occupation since 1967, while Gaza has been attacked by Israel since the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023, when nearly 1,200 Israelis were killed and around 250 people were taken hostage.

Since then, more than 65,000 people have been killed in Gaza as Israel has sought to destroy Hamas and recover its hostages. There are 48 hostages still in Gaza, with 20 believed to be alive.

She confirmed to me that Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, “has given guarantees in letters to various leaders around the globe that said Hamas will not be part of the governance of the Gaza Strip” and insisted there was “probably a worldwide consensus” on the topic.

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How has UK responded to Israel-Gaza conflict?

But she also insisted it was “not reasonable” to talk of completely erasing Hamas: “Hamas is an ideology, not a building that you bring down. Hamas is in people’s minds; in their heads.

“Those who support Hamas need to see a future, need to see something that is moving on the political level, need to see that there might be a state in which their children and their grandchildren might prosper.

“What people see today, whether they are Hamas supporters or not, they see darkness and they see destruction all over. They see violation of rights. They are helpless and hopeless. People need to see things are moving forward, and once that happens, there will be a shift in the mood, and they will look for a better future.”

But just as the Palestinians prepare to welcome recognition, Aghabekian said the West Bank was facing financial collapse as Israel continues to withhold hundreds of millions of dollars of tax revenue that, under a 30-year-old agreement, it collects on the Palestinian Authority’s behalf.

Israel has retained a proportion of the money since the start of the war in Gaza, but, encouraged by finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, it has recently withheld a much higher amount.

“People have not been paid, civil servants are only receiving small parts of their salaries. We can’t buy medical supplies, equipment, you name it,” said Aghabekian.

“How can a government run a country under such conditions? So yes, we are very worried.”

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Dublin Airport terminal evacuated as ‘safety precaution’

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Dublin Airport terminal evacuated as 'safety precaution'

Passengers have been evacuated from Dublin Airport’s Terminal 2 as a “precautionary measure”. 

Flights could be “temporarily impacted”, the airport said in a statement.

It did not give any details about the reason for the evacuation but said “the safety and security of our passengers and staff is our absolute priority”.

At this stage there is no suggestion the evacuation is linked to the cyber attack that has caused disruption at several European airports.

“We advise passengers to check with their airline for the latest updates,” the airport added, saying further information would be provided as soon as it is available.

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At least 70 killed in Sudan after paramilitary attack on mosque

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At least 70 killed in Sudan after paramilitary attack on mosque

At least 70 people have been killed after a paramilitary drone attack on a mosque in Sudan.

The Sudanese army and aid workers said the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) carried out the attack during Friday prayers in the North Darfur region.

The attack took place in the besieged city of Al Fasher and was said to have completely destroyed the mosque.

With bodies still buried under the rubble, the number of deaths is likely to rise, a worker with the local aid group Emergency Response Rooms said.

The worker spoke anonymously, fearing retaliation from the RSF.

Further details of the attack were difficult to ascertain because it took place in an area where many international and charitable organisations have already pulled out because of the violence.

In a statement, Sudan’s army said it was mourning the victims of the attack.

It said: “Targeting civilians unjustly is the motto of this rebel militia, and it continues to do so in full view of the entire world.”

Sky News Africa correspondent Yousra Elbagir reported earlier this month on the situation in North Darfur, where people are facing torture, rape and forced starvation.

The Sudan war started in April 2023, when long-simmering tensions between the Sudanese army and the RSF broke out in Khartoum.

The US special envoy to Sudan estimates that 150,000 people have been killed, but the exact figure is unknown. Close to 12 million people have been displaced.

Several mediation attempts have failed to secure a humanitarian access mechanism or any lulls in fighting.

Read more from Sky News:
Cyber attack disrupts European airports
More than 1,000 migrants arrive in small boats in one day

The Resistance Committees in El Fasher, a group of local activists who track abuses, posted a video on Friday claiming to show parts of the mosque reduced to rubble with several scattered bodies.

The Darfur Victims Support Organisation, which monitors abuses against civilians, said the attack happened at a mosque on the Daraga al Oula street at around 5am local time, citing witnesses.

The attack is the latest in a series of heavy clashes in the past week of between the two sides in Al Fasher.

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