Connect with us

Published

on

More than two months have passed since Yevgeny Prigozhin’s ill-fated rebellion against Moscow.

Despite President Putin surviving the biggest challenge to his authority to date, Prigozhin had defied expectations and survived the immediate post-coup purge.

However, it now appears that Yevgeny Prigozhin was living on borrowed time.

Read more: Ukraine war latest

Has Prigozhin’s demise strengthened Putin’s grip on power or has the beast that Putin created left a legacy that could yet prove a mortal blow to his former patron?

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

What caused Prigozhin jet to come down?

President Putin has relied heavily on mercenaries, both in the war in Ukraine but also for exerting influence – and generating revenues – in Africa and beyond.

When Putin’s war in Ukraine was faltering, he turned to his former chef to leverage the Wagner mercenaries to deliver a rare battlefield success for Russian forces in Bakhmut.

More on Russia

Putin knew that the urban battle for Bakhmut would be highly attritional, but bolstered by thousands of convict recruits, under Prigozhin’s brutal leadership, the mercenaries delivered.

Putin was able to channel significant government resources into Wagner contracts – to mutual benefit – knowing that the Russian population would be grateful that it was mercenary convicts (not conscripts) on the brutal frontline.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Prigozhin death ‘deeply mysterious’

At its zenith, Wagner had over 50,000 fighters under contract.

Although Prigozhin was a wealthy oligarch, he was an “outsider” to the Moscow elite, but the Wagner group provided him a unique platform for influence.

When he voiced criticism of the poor battlefield performance of the Russian military, his narrative struck a chord with many Russian conscripts, emboldening Prigozhin. But, he was not indispensable.

Russian mercenaries had delivered success on the Ukrainian battlefields, but their lack of professionalism and their complete disregard for the Law of Armed Conflict directly led to Putin being indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Then, when the monster that Putin had created turned upon him in a failed rebellion, Putin recognised it was time to act.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

What now for the Wagner Group?

But first, Putin had to be careful not to make Prigozhin a martyr.

He was still a powerful and influential figure, and Putin could not afford to take chances. Instead – despite running the risk of appearing weak – Putin set about eroding the two pillars of Prigozhin’s power: his business interests and his mercenary group.

Prigozhin’s business success was inextricably linked to Putin – without the president’s patronage the oligarch’s empire was vulnerable, and was swiftly dismantled.

The existential threat of Wagner proved a more difficult challenge, however some of the mercenaries were assimilated into the Russian Ministry of Defence, some returned to their families, some were sent off to Africa under new MoD contracts, and some were sent to Belarus.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Putin: ‘Prigozhin made serious mistakes’

With no contracts to pay salaries, Prigozhin’s power base gradually evaporated.

On Tuesday, Prigozhin was seen in a promotional video – alone – apparently touting for mercenary contracts in Africa.

However, the Russian MoD was doing the same, but offering their own, government backed, security solutions.

Prigozhin had run out of options. He was no longer a threat.

His power had been drained, and it was time for Putin to re-assert his authority.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Everyone understands who is involved’

Days later, Yevgeny Prigozhin was pronounced dead, along with many of his former Wagner colleagues. Putin must have been relieved to see the end of that dangerous chapter of his presidency.

But, does this brazen and decisive move strengthen Putin’s hold on power?

Read more:
Putin raised up Prigozhin up and now seems to have destroyed him
Wagner likely to mutate and morph, but will once again be compliant to Putin’s will

This past week has been illuminating.

At the high-profile BRICS summit, Putin was unable to join other global leaders in person due to his ICC criminal indictment.

Russia’s attempt to re-assert its global status as a space power ended abruptly when a few days later India showed how it could be done.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Prigozhin supporters gather to mourn

Despite Putin’s ambition to reassert Russia’s greatness Russia continues to lose gravitas on the world stage.

At home, Moscow is under nightly drone attack and without the brutal but effective Wagner mercenary forces Russia’s military is on the back foot in Ukraine.

And, a Ukrainian flag was seen flying over Crimea again – albeit briefly.

Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts

Although Prigozhin’s apparent demise solves a short-term problem, this has not been a good week for the Russian president.

Prigozhin might have been vanquished, but his legacy lives on.

Continue Reading

World

Stock markets slump for second day running after Trump announces tariffs – in worst day for indexes since COVID

Published

on

By

Stock markets slump for second day running after Trump announces tariffs - in worst day for indexes since COVID

Worldwide stock markets have plummeted for the second day running as the fallout from Donald Trump’s global tariffs continues.

While European and Asian markets suffered notable falls, American indexes were the worst hit, with Wall Street closing to a sea of red on Friday following Thursday’s rout – the worst day in US markets since the COVID-19 pandemic.

As it happened: Worst week’s trading in five years

All three of the US’s major indexes were down by more than 5% at market close; The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 5.5%, the S&P 500 was 5.97% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 5.82%.

The Nasdaq was also 22% below its record-high set in December, which indicates a bear market.

Read more: What’s a bear market?

Ever since the US president announced the tariffs on Wednesday evening, analysts estimate that around $4.9trn (£3.8trn) has been wiped off the value of the global stock market.

More on Donald Trump

Mr Trump has remained unapologetic as the markets struggle, posting in all-caps on Truth Social before the markets closed that “only the weak will fail”.

The UK’s leading stock market, the FTSE 100, also suffered its worst daily drop in more than five years, closing 4.95% down, a level not seen since March 2020.

And the Japanese exchange Nikkei 225 dropped by 2.75% at end of trading, down 20% from its recent peak in July last year.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
US indexes had the worst day of trading since the COVID-19 pandemic. Pic: Reuters

Trump holds trade deal talks – reports

It comes as a source told CNN that Mr Trump has been in discussions with Vietnamese, Indian and Israeli representatives to negotiate bespoke trade deals that could alleviate proposed tariffs on those countries before a deadline next week.

The source told the US broadcaster the talks were being held in advance of the reciprocal levies going into effect next week.

Vietnam faced one of the highest reciprocal tariffs announced by the US president this week, with 46% rates on imports. Israeli imports face a 17% rate, and Indian goods will be subject to 26% tariffs.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Do Trump’s tariffs add up?

Read more:
Markets gave Trump a clear no-confidence vote
There were no winners from Trump’s tariff gameshow

China – hit with 34% tariffs on imported goods – has also announced it will issue its own levy of the same rate on US imports.

Mr Trump said China “played it wrong” and “panicked – the one thing they cannot afford to do” in another all-caps Truth Social post earlier on Friday.

Later, on Air Force One, the US president told reporters that “the beauty” of the tariffs is that they allow for negotiations, referencing talks with Chinese company ByteDance on the sale of social media app TikTok.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Tariffs: Xi hits back at Trump

He said: “We have a situation with TikTok where China will probably say, ‘We’ll approve a deal, but will you do something on the tariffs?’

“The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have.”

Continue Reading

World

Financial markets were always going to respond to Trump tariffs but they’re also battling with another problem

Published

on

By

Financial markets were always going to respond to Trump tariffs but they're also battling with another problem

Global financial markets gave a clear vote of no-confidence in President Trump’s economic policy.

The damage it will do is obvious: costs for companies will rise, hitting their earnings.

The consequences will ripple throughout the global economy, with economists now raising their expectations for a recession, not only in the US, but across the world.

Tariffs latest: FTSE 100 suffers biggest daily drop since COVID

Financial investors had been gradually re-calibrating their expectations of Donald Trump over the past few months.

Hopes that his actions may not match his rhetoric were dashed on Wednesday as he imposed sweeping tariffs on the US’ trading partners, ratcheting up protectionism to a level not seen in more than a century.

Markets were always going to respond to that but they are also battling with another problem: the lack of certainty when it comes to Trump.

More on Donald Trump

He is a capricious figure and we can only guess his next move. Will he row back? How far is he willing to negotiate and offer concessions?

Read more:
There were no winners from Trump’s tariff gameshow
Trade war sparks ‘$2.2trn’ global market sell-off

These are massive unknowns, which are piled on to uncertainty about how countries will respond.

China has already retaliated and Europe has indicated it will go further.

That will compound the problems for the global economy and undoubtedly send shivers through the markets.

Much is yet to be determined, but if there’s one thing markets hate, it’s uncertainty.

Continue Reading

World

Court confirms sacking of South Korean president who declared martial law

Published

on

By

Court confirms sacking of South Korean president who declared martial law

South Korea’s constitutional court has confirmed the dismissal of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached in December after declaring martial law.

His decision to send troops onto the streets led to the country’s worst political crisis in decades.

The court ruled to uphold the impeachment saying the conservative leader “violated his duty as commander-in-chief by mobilising troops” when he declared martial law.

The president was also said to have taken actions “beyond the powers provided in the constitution”.

Demonstrators who stayed overnight near the constitutional court wait for the start of a rally calling for the president to step down. Pic: AP
Image:
Demonstrators stayed overnight near the constitutional court. Pic: AP

Supporters and opponents of the president gathered in their thousands in central Seoul as they awaited the ruling.

The 64-year-old shocked MPs, the public and international allies in early December when he declared martial law, meaning all existing laws regarding civilians were suspended in place of military law.

Read more from Sky News:
Highs and lows of Five-Year Keir
MP tells Sky News she was targeted online by Tate brothers

More on South Korea

The Constitutional Court is under heavy police security guard ahead of the announcement of the impeachment trial. Pic: AP
Image:
The court was under heavy police security guard ahead of the announcement. Pic: AP

After suddenly declaring martial law, Mr Yoon sent hundreds of soldiers and police officers to the National Assembly.

He has argued that he sought to maintain order, but some senior military and police officers sent there have told hearings and investigators that Mr Yoon ordered them to drag out politicians to prevent an assembly vote on his decree.

His presidential powers were suspended when the opposition-dominated assembly voted to impeach him on 14 December, accusing him of rebellion.

The unanimous verdict to uphold parliament’s impeachment and remove Mr Yoon from office required the support of at least six of the court’s eight justices.

South Korea must hold a national election within two months to find a new leader.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main liberal opposition Democratic Party, is the early favourite to become the country’s next president, according to surveys.

Continue Reading

Trending