Ukraine war: Putin was careful not to make Prigozhin a martyr – but his legacy will live on | Sean Bell
More than two months have passed since Yevgeny Prigozhin’s ill-fated rebellion against Moscow.
Despite President Putin surviving the biggest challenge to his authority to date, Prigozhin had defied expectations and survived the immediate post-coup purge.
However, it now appears that Yevgeny Prigozhin was living on borrowed time.
Read more: Ukraine war latest
Has Prigozhin’s demise strengthened Putin’s grip on power or has the beast that Putin created left a legacy that could yet prove a mortal blow to his former patron?
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What caused Prigozhin jet to come down?
President Putin has relied heavily on mercenaries, both in the war in Ukraine but also for exerting influence – and generating revenues – in Africa and beyond.
When Putin’s war in Ukraine was faltering, he turned to his former chef to leverage the Wagner mercenaries to deliver a rare battlefield success for Russian forces in Bakhmut.
Putin knew that the urban battle for Bakhmut would be highly attritional, but bolstered by thousands of convict recruits, under Prigozhin’s brutal leadership, the mercenaries delivered.
Putin was able to channel significant government resources into Wagner contracts – to mutual benefit – knowing that the Russian population would be grateful that it was mercenary convicts (not conscripts) on the brutal frontline.
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Prigozhin death ‘deeply mysterious’
At its zenith, Wagner had over 50,000 fighters under contract.
Although Prigozhin was a wealthy oligarch, he was an “outsider” to the Moscow elite, but the Wagner group provided him a unique platform for influence.
When he voiced criticism of the poor battlefield performance of the Russian military, his narrative struck a chord with many Russian conscripts, emboldening Prigozhin. But, he was not indispensable.
Russian mercenaries had delivered success on the Ukrainian battlefields, but their lack of professionalism and their complete disregard for the Law of Armed Conflict directly led to Putin being indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Then, when the monster that Putin had created turned upon him in a failed rebellion, Putin recognised it was time to act.
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What now for the Wagner Group?
But first, Putin had to be careful not to make Prigozhin a martyr.
He was still a powerful and influential figure, and Putin could not afford to take chances. Instead – despite running the risk of appearing weak – Putin set about eroding the two pillars of Prigozhin’s power: his business interests and his mercenary group.
Prigozhin’s business success was inextricably linked to Putin – without the president’s patronage the oligarch’s empire was vulnerable, and was swiftly dismantled.
The existential threat of Wagner proved a more difficult challenge, however some of the mercenaries were assimilated into the Russian Ministry of Defence, some returned to their families, some were sent off to Africa under new MoD contracts, and some were sent to Belarus.
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Putin: ‘Prigozhin made serious mistakes’
With no contracts to pay salaries, Prigozhin’s power base gradually evaporated.
On Tuesday, Prigozhin was seen in a promotional video – alone – apparently touting for mercenary contracts in Africa.
However, the Russian MoD was doing the same, but offering their own, government backed, security solutions.
Prigozhin had run out of options. He was no longer a threat.
His power had been drained, and it was time for Putin to re-assert his authority.
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‘Everyone understands who is involved’
Days later, Yevgeny Prigozhin was pronounced dead, along with many of his former Wagner colleagues. Putin must have been relieved to see the end of that dangerous chapter of his presidency.
But, does this brazen and decisive move strengthen Putin’s hold on power?
Read more:
Putin raised up Prigozhin up and now seems to have destroyed him
Wagner likely to mutate and morph, but will once again be compliant to Putin’s will
This past week has been illuminating.
At the high-profile BRICS summit, Putin was unable to join other global leaders in person due to his ICC criminal indictment.
Russia’s attempt to re-assert its global status as a space power ended abruptly when a few days later India showed how it could be done.
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Prigozhin supporters gather to mourn
Despite Putin’s ambition to reassert Russia’s greatness Russia continues to lose gravitas on the world stage.
At home, Moscow is under nightly drone attack and without the brutal but effective Wagner mercenary forces Russia’s military is on the back foot in Ukraine.
And, a Ukrainian flag was seen flying over Crimea again – albeit briefly.
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Although Prigozhin’s apparent demise solves a short-term problem, this has not been a good week for the Russian president.
Prigozhin might have been vanquished, but his legacy lives on.
Donald Trump has said there is a “good chance” of peace between Russia and Ukraine – but added the US has a red line in upcoming talks.
After a two-hour phone call with Vladimir Putin, the US president announced on Monday that Russia–Ukraine discussions will begin “immediately”.
It is unclear how these will differ from negotiations that already started in Turkey last Friday.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office later on Monday, Mr Trump said he does have a red line on when he’ll stop pushing Moscow and Kyiv for peace – but would not say what it is.
There are “big egos involved”, he said before adding: “This was a European situation, it should have remained a European situation.”
The US president also claimed he asked Mr Putin on their call: “When are we going to end this bloodbath?”
He said of the Russian president: “I do believe he wants to end [the war].”
“My whole life is deals, one big deal, and if I thought that President Putin did not want to get this over with, I wouldn’t even be talking about it because I’d just pull out,” he added.
The US president spoke to his Russian counterpart on Monday as part of a bid to push the two countries towards agreeing a truce in the war.
Donald Trump speaking in the Oval Office on Monday. Pic: AP
In a Truth Social post, published shortly after the call, Mr Trump said Russia and Ukraine “will immediately start negotiations towards a ceasefire and, more importantly, an end to the war”.
Mr Trump continued: “Russia wants to do large-scale trade with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree.
“There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is unlimited.”
Vladimir Putin at a meeting in Moscow last week. Pic: AP
Ukraine “can be a great beneficiary on trade, in the process of rebuilding its country”, he said.
The Vatican “has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations”, Mr Trump added. He signed off his post with: “Let the process begin!”
Mr Putin found the call “informative, frank and very useful”, Russian news agency RIA reported.
“A ceasefire in the situation in Ukraine for a certain period of time is possible if appropriate agreements are reached,” the Russian leader reportedly said.
Discussions are ‘positive,’ says Zelenskyy
The US president spoke separately to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and various European leaders.
At a briefing after the day’s calls had taken place, Ukraine’s leader said he told Mr Trump that Russia “might propose some particularly difficult conditions” for a ceasefire – which could be “a sign that it is the Russian side that is unwilling to end the war”.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to reporters after his own call with Mr Trump. Pic: Reuters
“I think we are still discussing the very possibility of strong and severe sanctions [on Russia],” he continued. “I don’t yet have an answer to that question.”
Kyiv is considering the possibility of a meeting between “high-level” teams from Ukraine, the US, Russia and some European countries, Mr Zelenskyy said, describing the talks on Monday as “positive”.
He continued: “Such a meeting could take place in Turkey, the Vatican, or Switzerland. We are currently considering these three venues, as all three countries – all three venues – are neutral.”
European leaders and Ukraine have demanded Russia agree to a ceasefire immediately, and Mr Trump has focused on getting Mr Putin to commit to a 30-day truce. The Russian president has resisted that, insisting that conditions be met first.
The Trump-Putin call came as Russia has continued to target Ukraine with attacks.
Moscow on Monday claimed its forces have taken two villages in Ukraine, according to state news agency RIA.
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Russia recently began pushing into the Sumy region after claiming it had ousted Kyiv’s forces from Russia’s neighbouring Kursk region.
RIA cited the defence ministry as saying Novoolenivka, in the eastern Donetsk region, and Marine, in Sumy, have now been taken by Russian forces.
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Russia launches war’s largest drone attack
Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 112 drones over various parts of the country overnight, killing two people and leaving another 13 injured.
On Sunday, Kyiv officials said Russia had launched the largest drone attack of the war so far by firing 273 explosives into Ukraine over the course of Saturday night into the following morning.
Israel has said it will allow a “basic quantity of food” into the besieged enclave of Gaza to avoid a “starvation crisis” following a near three-month blockade.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the decision was “based on the operational need to enable the expansion of the military operation to defeat Hamas“.
Gaza, where local authorities say more than 53,000 people have died in Israel’s 19-month campaign, has been under a complete blockade on humanitarian aid since 2 March.
It comes as global food security experts warn of famine across the territory and after a UN-backed report from last Monday which warned one in five people in Gaza were facing starvation.
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Israel ramps up bombing in Gaza
The statement from the prime minister’s office said it would “allow a basic quantity of food to be brought in for the population in order to make certain that no starvation crisis develops in the Gaza Strip”.
“Such a crisis would endanger the continuation of Operation ‘Gideon’s Chariots’ to defeat Hamas,” it added.
“Israel will act to deny Hamas’s ability to take control of the distribution of humanitarian assistance in order to ensure that the assistance does not reach the Hamas terrorists.”
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Gaza is ‘a slaughterhouse’ says surgeon
It comes after a British surgeon working in Gaza said in a video to Sky News the enclave is now “a slaughterhouse” amid Israeli bombardment.
Israel has just ramped up its offensive in Gaza – where it’s been conducting a military campaign in retaliation for 1,200 people killed and 251 taken hostage by Hamas on 7 October 2023 – with Palestinian health officials reporting at least 130 people were killed overnight into Sunday.
Israel Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed troops had begun “extensive ground operations throughout the northern and southern Gaza Strip”.
The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 464 people had died in Israeli military strikes in the week to Sunday.
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In a statement on Sunday, IDF said its air force struck “over 670 Hamas terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip to disrupt enemy preparations and support ground operations” over the past week.
Israel has launched an escalation to increase pressure on Hamas, seize territory, displace Palestinians to the south and take greater control over the distribution of aid.
Pro-Western candidate Nicusor Dan has unexpectedly beaten hard-right populist George Simion in the Romanian presidential election.
Mr Simion, 38, and his rival – a centrist who’s mayor of Bucharest – faced off in the second round of the contest.
According to the official tally, Mr Dan was leading by nearly nine percentage points with more than 98% of the votes counted.
Pic: Reuters
Mr Dan and his supporters celebrated the exit polls. Pic: Reuters
After exit polls suggested he wasn’t going to win, Trump-supporting Mr Simion rejected the result and said estimates put him 400,000 votes ahead.
Speaking after voting ended, Mr Simion said his election was “clear” as he posted on Facebook: “I won!!! I am the new President of Romania and I am giving back the power to the Romanians!”
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Romania’s last election was annulled after its highest court ruled the leading candidate, nationalist Calin Georgescu, should be disqualified due to claims of electoral interference by Russia.
The result is surprising because in the first round, 38-year-old Mr Simion, founder of the right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), took 40.96% of the vote – almost 20 points ahead.
George Simion rejected the polls but official counting saw him slip behind. Pic: Reuters
Supporters of Mr Dan celebrated on the streets of the capital Bucharest. Pic: AP
An opinion poll on Friday had it much closer, but still suggested the two men were virtually tied.
Mr Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician, is running as an independent and has pledged to clamp down on corruption.
He is also staunchly pro-EU and NATO, and has said Romania’s support for Ukraine is vital for its own security.
When voting closed at 9pm local time, 11.6 million people – about 64% of eligible voters – had cast ballots. About 1.64 million Romanians living abroad also took part.
About 11.6 million people – 64% of eligible voters – cast ballots. Pic: AP
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The election is being closely watched across Europe amid a rise of support for President Donald Trump.
After polls closed, Mr Dan said “elections are not about politicians” but about communities and that in the latest vote “a community of Romanians has won, a community that wants a profound change in Romania”.
“When Romania goes through difficult times, let us remember the strength of this Romanian society,” he said.
“There is also a community that lost today’s elections. A community that is rightly outraged by the way politics has been conducted in Romania up to now.”
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