Tech investors last week finally heard utterance of their favorite three-letter acronym: IPO.
It’s been 20 months since a notable venture-backed tech company went public in the U.S., and the chatter in Silicon Valley has centered around who will break the ice. On Friday, grocery delivery startup Instacart and data and marketing automation company Klaviyo filed for stock market debuts.
Earlier in the week, chip designer Arm, which is owned by Japan’s SoftBank, said it plans to hit the Nasdaq seven years after being taken private in a $32 billion acquisition.
The three companies have very little in common, but collectively they represent a test of the excitement level among public market investors for new opportunities. Depending on how they perform out of the gate, their offerings could propel others to follow in the fourth quarter.
“Other teams will watch the reception of these and it could encourage some of those management teams to stop waiting around for yesteryear and just get it done,” said Lise Buyer, founder of IPO consultancy Class V Group.
By “yesteryear,” Buyer is referring to the kinds of valuations tech companies were achieving in 2020 and 2021, which were record years for tech IPOs. Software vendor Snowflake, which debuted in late 2020 and saw its price-to-sales multiple shoot up to about 50, now trades at under 17 times revenue. Food delivery company DoorDash has seen its stock drop by more than two-thirds since its high in 2021, even though revenue has since grown by over 60%.
“We aren’t going back to 2021 anytime soon,” Buyer said.
Instacart, backed at high prices by venture firms including Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz, has had a big valuation haircut ahead of its IPO. After raising private cash at a $39 billion valuation in early 2021, the company slashed that number to $24 billion in March of last year as tech stocks sank and growth slowed dramatically in a post-Covid world. The valuation reportedly fell by another 50% by late 2022.
DoorDash, which is probably Instacart’s closest public market comparison, currently trades at 3.8 times revenue. That kind of multiple would value Instacart at around $11 billion.
Instacart, which reported revenue growth of 15% in the latest quarter to $716 million, has managed to turn a profit for five straight periods by keeping costs in check and slashing head count. Net income increased to $114 million from $8 million a year earlier.
Klaviyo, which was valued at $9.5 billion in a 2021 funding round, has not been forced to reduce its valuation, according to Pitchbook and public reports. Founded in 2012, the company’s technology helps clients store user data and build profiles that enable targeted marketing via email, text messages and other channels.
Andrew Bialecki, CEO and co-founder of Klaviyo, poses for a portrait in Boston on Sep. 5, 2019.
Barry Chin | Boston Globe | Getty Images
Even though it has a much lesser-known brand, Klaviyo is growing significantly faster than Instacart, with revenue in the second quarter climbing 50% to $164.6 million. The business swung to a profit of $10.9 million in the period after losing close to $12 million a year earlier.
When looking for comparisons, the Bessemer Cloud Index, which consists of about 70 publicly traded cloud companies, provides the cleanest data. Klaviyo’s growth rate would put it near the top of the index, where companies trade at around 12 times revenue. That would imply a valuation for Klaviyo in the neighborhood of $7 billion.
Klaviyo’s biggest institutional backer is Summit Partners, followed by e-commerce software vendor Shopify, which is a key business partner. Venture firm Accel is also an investor.
According to Buyer, it’s not surprising to see companies filing to go public right now. The way SEC rules work, management teams and bankers have to wait at least 15 days after the IPO filing before they can start their roadshow. The offering could take place two weeks later.
Companies that filed last week can hit the road in early September, right after Labor Day, and go public in the middle of the month.
“Historically, late August is when you see filings for companies that want to be first in the back-to-school season,” Buyer said. “The timing makes all sorts of sense. People are coming back from the summer holidays with a fresh look at the market and interest in adding new names in Q4.”
While Instacart and Klaviyo could have significant implications for startup investors as they look at what to expect for the rest of 2023 and into next year, Arm has a slightly different audience.
The chip designer is owned by Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank, which is seeking liquidity after losing billions of dollars in recent years on mistimed and overly aggressive investments in names like WeWork, Chinese ride-hailing company Didi and Indian hotel company Oyo.
Not only is Arm much bigger than a typical venture-backed company at the time of IPO, but it’s based in the U.K. and was a public company in the past.
Arm, whose technology is critical to almost all of the world’s smartphones, reported $524 million in net income on $2.68 billion in revenue in its fiscal 2023, which ended in March, according to its filing. Arm’s 2023 revenue was slightly down from the company’s 2022 sales of $2.7 billion.
To capture a public market valuation of $32 billion, Arm would need a multiple of roughly 61 times earnings. Within the semiconductor market, Nvidia towers over everyone, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 114. But that’s a company that’s tripled in value this year and just told investors to expect 170% sales growth in the current quarter. Elsewhere in the chip space, Qualcomm trades for 15 times earnings and Applied Materials has a ratio of 19.
The technology sector may be starting to slow again. The Nasdaq is up 30% this year, coming off its worst year since 2008, but an outsized portion of the gains come from huge rallies in shares of Nvidia and Meta. So far in August, the Nasdaq is down 5.3% and is headed for its first monthly drop since February.
But at some point, companies have to stop focusing on market conditions and just decide it’s time to be public, Buyer said, as there hasn’t been a significant VC-backed tech IPO in the U.S. since HashiCorp and Samsara went public in December 2021.
The market will determine a company’s value, and if it performs over time, there will always be opportunities to sell shares at a higher price.
“You’ve got to prove your worth in the marketplace,” she said.
Rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, performs onstage during a “Vultures 1” concert in Inglewood, California on March 14, 2024.
Scott Dudelson | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
Shopify has taken down a site advertised by rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, that sold swastika t-shirts.
The rapper ran an advertisement on Sunday during the Super Bowl that directed viewers to visit Yeezy.com, where it promoted a single product — a $20 t-shirt with a black swastika. The site was online until Tuesday morning.
A Shopify spokesperson said the Canadian e-commerce company took the site down for violating its terms of service. The storefront has been replaced with an error message that reads, “This store is unavailable.”
Shopify President Harley Finkelstein told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” Tuesday that the website’s owners “had an entire day” to prove they weren’t violating the company’s policies, “which did not happen.”
“The moment we realized this was not actually a real commerce practice, they weren’t actually engaging in authentic commerce, we pulled it down,” Finkelstein said.
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Finkelstein called the site, which previously sold a broader selection of t-shirts, pants and jackets, “disappointing.”
“I’m a proud Jewish entrepreneur,” Finkelstein told CNBC’s Sara Eisen. “I’m a proud Jewish community member. You and I have talked about this in the past, that it’s a big part of my identity. So obviously I’m devastated by that.”
In the days leading up to the Super Bowl, Ye had shared posts praising Adolf Hitler and calling himself a Nazi on the social media site X, which is owned by Elon Musk. On Monday, his account on X was deactivated. His profile now reads: “This account doesn’t exist.”
The brief Super Bowl ad showed Ye reclining in a dentist’s chair. “I spent, like, all the money for the commercial on these new teeth,” he said. Ye then tells viewers to “go to yeezy.com.”
The Anti-Defamation League condemned the commercial on Monday, writing in a post on X that “there’s no excuse for this kind of behavior.”
In 2022, Ye was suspended from X after he posted an image of a swastika merged with the Star of David, a prominent symbol of Judaism. Months later, his account was reinstated, a decision the company reportedly made after it received reassurances from Ye that he wouldn’t use the platform to share antisemitic content, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Musk, who acquired X, then known as Twitter, in 2022, has been embroiled in controversy over his own social media posts and activity. Musk has frequently amplified antisemitic posts on X, causing some advertisers to flee the site.
In December, Musk endorsed the far-right Alternative for Germany party. And last month, Musk attracted backlash after he repeatedly used a gesture at a rally for Trump that was viewed by many historians and politicians as a Nazi salute. Musk later made jokes about it using the names of historical Nazi party figures.
An employee works at Shopify’s headquarters in Ottawa, Ontario in Canada.
Chris Wattie | Reuters
Shopify on Tuesday reported better-than-expected sales for the fourth quarter but missed on earnings. Shares whipsawed in premarket trading.
Here’s how the company did:
Earnings: 39 cents per share vs. 43 cents per share expected by LSEG
Revenue: $2.81 billion vs. $2.73 billion expected by LSEG
Shopify forecasted revenue in the first quarter to grow at a mid-20% percentage rate, which is roughly in line with analysts’ expectations of 24.4% revenue growth, according to LSEG.
“We expect the strong merchant momentum from Q4 to carry over into Q1, recognizing that Q1 is consistently our lowest [gross merchandise volume] quarter seasonally,” the company said in its earnings release.
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The first quarter includes the results of the holiday shopping season. Online spending jumped nearly 9% to $241.1 billion in November and December, according to data from Adobe Analytics, which tracks sales on retailers’ websites. That was slightly higher than analysts’ forecast for sales of $240.8 billion.
The company said it expects operating expense as a percentage of revenue to be 41% to 42% in the current quarter. That’s a step up from 31.5% in the fourth quarter.
Net income nearly doubled to $1.3 billion, or 99 cents per share, from $657 million, or 51 cents per share, a year ago.
Revenue in the fourth quarter jumped 31% from $2.14 billion in the same quarter a year earlier.
Gross merchandise volume, or the total volume of merchandise sold on the platform, came in at $94.5 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for GMV of $93 billion.
Shopify sells software for merchants who run online businesses as well as services such as advertising and payment processing tools. The company has made its name as a platform for small businesses and direct-to-consumer brands to launch online storefronts. More recently, it has looked to attract bigger customers, such as Reebok, Mattel and Barnes & Noble, as a way to boost its growth.
While the details on just how DeepSeek did it remain incomplete, and its success doesn’t mean export controls don’t have a place in markets and national security policy, it does show that a focus on stopping the competition can’t keep pace with innovation. Now, the debate is underway over just how far the U.S. government should go in the future in blocking access to U.S. chip technology.
President Biden’s Department of Commerce issued its rules to “regulate the global diffusion” of AI chips and models in the administration’s waning days. The rules already have been heavily criticized by tech companies, including Nvidia, as well as policy experts. A Brookings analysis argues the the AI diffusion rules seek to create “a centrally planned global computing economy.”
“A decade from now, we will look back and recognize how quixotic it was for the U.S. government of the mid-2020s to attempt to limit the ability of people in 150 countries to perform fast multiplications,” wrote John Villasenor, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and professor of electrical engineering, law, public policy, and management at UCLA.
In any technology war, questions about what countermove the U.S. should make next inevitably run up against the awareness that any notion of controlling innovation through measures like restricting exports is not guaranteed to work – and may even backfire. Among the risks cited by Brookings: spurring the development of a global AI ecosystem anchored outside the U.S.; pushing more nations into building stronger technology ties with China; and allowing non-U.S. makers of advanced chips to grow global market share at the expense of the U.S. companies behind the original innovations.
“I worry that we will have a knee-jerk response to ratchet up controls heavily, before we fully think through the trade-offs,” said Martin Chorzempa, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
There is a 120-day comment period that ends on May 15 on the AI diffusion rules, unless Trump reverses or revises the rule before then. While the president has spoken in general about the need to protect the U.S. technological lead, he has not specifically addressed this rule. It’s unknown what stance the current administration will take – expanding, curtailing, or overturning chip export rules already in place.
“Some authoritarian regimes have stolen and used AI to strengthen their military intelligence and surveillance capabilities, capture foreign data and create propaganda to undermine other nations’ national security,” Vance said in an address at France’s AI Action Summit in Paris. “I want to be clear, this administration will block such efforts, full stop,” Vance said. “We will safeguard American AI and chip technologies from theft and misuse, work with our allies and partners to strengthen and extend these protections and close pathways to adversaries attaining AI capabilities that threaten all of our people,” he added.
Trump’s first-day signing of an executive order to “identify and eliminate loopholes in existing export controls,” suggest he could take a hard line. It said the government will “assess and make recommendations regarding how to maintain, obtain, and enhance our Nation’s technological edge and how to identify and eliminate loopholes in existing export controls – especially those that enable the transfer of strategic goods, software, services, and technology to countries to strategic rivals and their proxies.”
The tech sector was quick to do its outreach to the new administration, with several major CEOs at the inauguration, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang meeting with President Trump at the White House in recent weeks for a discussion that included chip restrictions to China.
Trump also called Deepseek a “wake-up call for our industries that we need to be laser-focused on competing to win.”
Particularly relevant to Deepseek in the AI diffusion rules are controls surrounding closed AI model weights, essential to the training process that develops how AI systems think and respond to queries.
“In part, DeepSeek was able to get around the speed limit imposed on chips allowed for sale to China in 2022, but banned in 2023, when the U.S. realized that the limit imposed was the wrong one,” said Chorzempa.
When the U.S. put controls on China in 2022, Chorzempa explained, they set a specific parameter concerning the speed of communication between chips. It was thought that if you control the power of an individual chip that might not be enough, because if you bring enough less powerful chips together, it’s possible to have supercomputer-like capabilities at a level the U.S. government didn’t want China to obtain. It appears from what DeepSeek described in its R1 paper that the company was able to overcome that speed limit.
“Experts in the technical community in at least early 2023 were pointing out that other restrictions were required to have an effective control as the technology evolved,” Chorzempa said.
In 2023, the U.S. government added additional layers of restriction that made the Nvidia chips DeepSeek says it trained the model on no longer legal for export. Tightened controls could be further strengthened by subsequent initiatives from the Trump administration.
But through a combination of having a limited number of advanced chips available and innovation spurred on by that limit, DeepSeek was able to build a better, and potentially cheaper, mousetrap.
“DeepSeeks seems to have optimized heavily with clever software and hardware engineering to sort of neuter the speed limit meant to hold those chips back,” Chorzempa said.
AI rivals will continue to do more with less
There are other aspects to the evolving AI race which show gaps that are narrowing for other reasons.
“The story is really about the gap being closed between open source and closed source models,” said Alexandra Mousavizadeh, CEO of Evident, an AI consulting firm. “Now the open source models are getting much closer to the capabilities of the closed ones, and we see the price driving down to zero,” Mousavizadeh said.
DeepSeek has already shown that you don’t need maximum computing power, and you can you use open-source as alternative when building a viable LLM, and in fact, according to Mousavizadeh, these factors can be a driver of innovation.
“We’re seeing that limits forced them to use scientific methods and systems that compress data onto a much smaller pool that uses much less power using mixed expert models,” she said. AI rivals can “do more with less,” Mousavizadeh added.
“You can’t really gatekeep,” Mousavizadeh said, noting that there is lots of sharing that occurs in the open source environment, “regardless of governmental policy.”
If DeepSeek’s success leads to export controls on advanced chips intended to slow Chinese AI efforts that become even stricter, it should also be clear they are no silver bullet. “They’re not a way to duck the competition between the US and China,” wrote Dario Amodei, CEO of gen AI startup Anthropic, in a blog post last week. “In the end, AI companies in the US and other democracies must have better models than those in China if we want to prevail. But we shouldn’t hand the Chinese Communist Party technological advantages when we don’t have to.”
His issue isn’t with the AI researchers in China, but the government to which they are ultimately beholden. “In interviews they’ve done, they seem like smart, curious researchers who just want to make useful technology,” Amodei wrote about DeepSeek. “But they’re beholden to an authoritarian government that has committed human rights violations, has behaved aggressively on the world stage, and will be far more unfettered in these actions if they’re able to match the US in AI.”
To be sure, there are many reasons to be wary of doing anything to contribute to China’s AI advances and successes like DeepSeek, from national security concerns about data sharing with the Chinese government, to ongoing hacking risks, to Chinese AI apps becoming popular enough to be used by Chinese intelligence to learn about Americans and American industries, and to sow division among the public.
Palantir Technologies CEO Alex Karp told CNBC’s Sara Eisen in a recent interview that “we have to run harder, run faster, have an all-country effort.”
“The second-mover can move very quickly, especially if we’ve already done the innovation,” Karp said, describing DeepSeek as derivative of U.S. models with “improvements at the margins.”
He expects a “huge policy discussion” to make sure innovations are not exported, but Karp added that in the end, “the real advantage goes to the first mover as long as the first mover is running hard. … We have the lead, we have to focus on making sure we keep it. Our adversaries are gonna copy anything they can.”
Palantir’s rise — its shares soared 340% last year to lead the S&P 500 — didn’t come by trying to stop others, and in that there may be a lesson. “We don’t focus on the competition,” Karp said. “We focus on how do we execute.”