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By Kyle Bonagura, Adam Rittenberg and Andrea Adelson

BOULDER, Colo. — In the midst of training camp, three weeks before the season opener, first-year Colorado coach Deion Sanders was in no mood to sing the virtues of building a strong team culture. In fact, he took exception to the idea that it was even necessary as part of his Rocky Mountain reclamation project.

“I’m not welcoming to that word, culture,” Sanders said. “That’s all I heard when I was in Jackson. Culture, culture, culture, culture, culture. Now culture, culture. What the heck does that mean?”

In this context, it was defined for the Pro Football Hall of Famer as creating an environment to become a good football team. For example, what little things do the players have to do every day to maximize their potential?

“I don’t think you got to have unity whatsoever,” Sanders said. “You got to have good players.”

While that might partially defy conventional wisdom, it does sum up the blueprint from which Sanders has built his team over the past nine months. Since his splashy arrival in early December, hired following a successful three-year stint at FCS Jackson State, Sanders made it clear he planned on taking advantage of college football’s now unrestrictive transfer rules to overhaul his roster — even encouraging holdover players to enter the transfer portal the first time he addressed the team.

He hasn’t wavered in his plan since.

The Buffs weren’t just one of the worst teams in college football last season, they were one of the worst teams in recent memory. Coach Karl Dorrell was fired after an 0-5 start in just his third season, and the team finished 1-11. Colorado lost games by an average margin of 29.1 points last year, the worst in the country and the fourth-worst among Power 5 programs in the past 30 years.

When the Buffaloes take the field in Fort Worth, Texas, against No. 17 TCU on Saturday (noon ET, Fox), the only resemblance from last year’s team will be the uniforms. Only 10 scholarship players from the 2022 roster remain with the team. The team’s 86 new players come from all over — from high school to junior college to the SEC — including nine who followed Sanders from Jackson State, led by Shedeur Sanders, Deion’s son and CU’s starting QB, and Travis Hunter, the No. 2 overall recruit in the 2022 class. According to ESPN Stats & Information, it’s the most incoming players to an FBS roster since the inception of the transfer portal in 2018.

“I know it’s a huge overhaul,” Sanders said. “But it had to be done.”

No coach has ever been so brash about wanting to force out so many of the players he inherited. Even though it became easier in 2021 to transfer, once the rules had changed and players did not have to sit out for a season, the extent of Sanders’ undertaking is unprecedented in college football.

Colorado’s 53 incoming transfers — including roughly two dozen since the end of spring practice — is the most any team has ever added in an offseason.

While some coaches might have reservations about how this unorthodox approach could impact team chemistry, Sanders could not care less.

“I don’t care about culture. I don’t care. I don’t care if they like each other, man. I want to win,” he said. “I’ve been on some teams where the quarterback didn’t like the receiver, but they darn sure made harmony when the ball was snapped.”

Sanders said that doesn’t mean his players don’t get along. He said there is plenty of evidence to the contrary. However, it does illustrate how his long professional playing career has influenced his priorities as he attempts to resuscitate a once-proud program.

“He understands the business,” a team source told ESPN. “If he doesn’t win, they’re going to get rid of him like they have the previous staffs, so you better be confident enough to make the moves you feel fit within the vision you have for that program. The one thing that no one can deny — you may agree or not agree with what he says — Deion Sanders has been a winner his entire life.”

After Colorado spent most of the past two decades mired in irrelevance, Sanders has put the school squarely in the spotlight. Historic numbers of players have transferred in and out. Season tickets are sold out. Merchandise sales have spiked, with sales of Colorado gear in December — the month Sanders was hired — up 505% over the previous year, according to the university. The Buffs have been one of the most talked-about teams in the country.

Now it’s time to play football.

ESPN spoke to several players who transferred after Sanders’ arrival, as well current players and coaches, to find out what actually happened during the spring roster overhaul, what kind of a team Sanders is attempting to build and, ultimately, whether one of the most fascinating offseasons in the sport’s history will pay off.


On Saturday, April 22, the day after a spring snowstorm, nearly 50,000 people made their way to Folsom Field for Coach Prime’s first spring game. The crowd was bigger than all but two of the team’s regular-season home games last season and marked the first time the school sold tickets to the event since the 1970s.

“This was the beginning of everything in the direction that we go right now,” Sanders said afterward. “You all know that we’re going to move on from some of the team members and we’re going to reload and get some kids that we really identify with. This process is going to be quick, it’s going to be fast, but we’re going to get it done.”

The Sunday and Monday following the spring game were uncomfortably quiet around the UCHealth Champions Center, headquarters of the Buffaloes football program. Players had been summoned to meet with their position coaches and, in some cases, Sanders as well.

They came and went, some never to return. Sanders’ proclamation at Colorado’s first team meeting back in December — “I want y’all to get ready to jump in that portal” — had gone into full effect, just a bit later than many had expected.

Former Colorado linebacker Mister Williams remembered entering a mostly empty building for a Sunday meeting with both Sanders and linebackers coach Andre’ Hart. The coaches reviewed Williams’ performance and told him he ultimately didn’t fit with the direction Colorado wanted to go.

“Coach Prime asked me, do I know what that means?” Williams said. “Like, do I know what I need to work on so that whenever I do find a new place, that won’t be an issue?”

Williams, who originally had no intention of transferring from Colorado, mostly listened during the meeting. He thanked the coaches for the opportunity as they parted ways. He then went to the locker room and gathered his things. He eventually transferred to the University of the Incarnate Word.

“Some people, they don’t plan on transferring the whole time that they’re in college,” said Jason Oliver, who transferred from Colorado to Sacramento State after the spring game. “The fact you can get cut like that, it kind of sucks, but that’s what college football is nowadays. It’s just a business, so you’ve got to start to understand it.”

Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson led CU in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and total touchdowns in 2022 before sustaining a season-ending knee injury in early November that required surgery. He had spent the winter and spring rehabbing, which limited his interactions with Sanders and the new coaching staff. But Tyson planned to stay and remain a significant contributor, until his meeting with Sanders and wide receivers coach Brett Bartolone.

“I just wasn’t wanted, basically,” Jordyn Tyson said. “They basically said that.”

It was harsh, like an NFL cutdown day, except for players who mostly arrived in Boulder under the assumption they had a home until they exhausted their eligibility. Their scholarships would have been honored if they wanted to remain at CU as students, but the whole process came across as impersonal, multiple players told ESPN. If the initial wave of more than two dozen incoming transfers before spring practice was Phase 1 of Sanders’ transformation, Phase 2 commenced during the post-spring exit interviews.

“Sometimes when you’re telling somebody what they want to hear, it is worse than just telling people the truth,” said Colorado defensive coordinator Charles Kelly, who joined Colorado in December after four years on staff at Alabama. “The one thing that [Sanders] firmly believes in is he’s going to tell people the truth. He has not done anything since he’s been the head coach that he didn’t say he was going to do. He spelled it out exactly what his plan was.”


Sanders might say he doesn’t care about culture, but his coaching philosophy is built on the same core principles he learned as a player at Florida State under Bobby Bowden and defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews.

In an interview last year with ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, Sanders said, “I’m pretty much a version of Mickey Andrews right now, the way I go about my job.”

He made similar comments to The Ledger newspaper when Andrews retired in 2009: “Not a day goes by when I am coaching, mentoring or teaching somebody that I don’t use things coach Andrews taught me. He is one of the all-time great defensive coaches in college football history.”

Andrews spent 26 years as defensive coordinator with the Seminoles, and molded Sanders into a two-time All-American in 1987-88. Andrews’ relentlessness with his players, tough love and emphasis on hard work and discipline are core tenets Sanders has taken with him as a coach. Andrews told ESPN from his home in Tallahassee, Florida, that he and Sanders have talked at length about their similar approach to coaching.

“He has told me a lot of times that he finds himself repeating some of the language I used, and the way I went about talking with players and trying to challenge them,” Andrews said. “Deion is a very honest person. I tried to be the same way with the players. I was tough on them, and I understand he is. I tried to create self-discipline. That’s how you become disciplined. You have to take ownership of that.”

Andrews said the first team meeting that Sanders held at Colorado — when he sent an eye-opening message about his expectations — reminded him of his freshman year at Alabama under Paul “Bear” Bryant in 1959.

“I saw the players were sitting around expecting a guy to come in there being jovial. He pinned their ears to the wall right off the bat,” Andrews said. “It reminded me so much of Coach Bryant. His deal was you get in or you get out. He wasn’t going to have a meeting and try to encourage you to join his team. He told us the first step to winning is to keep from losing, and he said you guys in here that can’t abide by that need to find another place to go to school. He was going to force you to make a decision. Deion kind of did the same thing.”

Sanders often points to five qualities he’s looking for in his players: smart, tough, fast, disciplined, great character. Those close to Sanders describe an approach that prioritizes similar qualities that Bowden valued while building Florida State into a national power, but Sanders has taken full advantage of modern NCAA rules.

First-year head coaches, like Sanders, have access to the NCAA’s “Aid After Departure of Head Coach” rule, which allows them to cut scholarship players and not have them count against the 85-scholarship limit, so long as those players remain on scholarship through the university. The transfer eligibility rules that went into effect in 2021 allowed this to become a mechanism for clearing roster space. Additionally, the NCAA Division I Council announced last year a two-year waiver for initial counter limits, which previously capped the amount of incoming scholarship players — high school recruits and transfers — in the offseason at 25. These rules make it possible for Sanders and other first-year coaches to revamp their rosters in ways they couldn’t before.

For a losing program like Colorado, Sanders’ approach, while callous to some, is a welcome change for others. Former Colorado and NFL offensive lineman Matt McChesney trains college athletes in a gym near Denver, including about 10 former Colorado players who transferred in the offseason. He welcomes the “unapologetic” and “business-related” approach Sanders has taken so far at his alma mater.

McChesney admitted Colorado’s offseason overhaul included some players the team wanted to keep but said some of the negative feedback — ranging from criticism from other college football coaches to those in media — was misplaced.

“I don’t have an issue with what he did at all. In fact, I dig it and I hope he does more of it,” McChesney said. “Honestly, I want it to be as cutthroat as humanly possible. I want everybody walking on eggshells. I want guys to fear for their jobs, so they do it at a high level. The perception that somehow this is dirty, I don’t understand how people can feel like that.”

McChesney attributes Colorado’s decline to a less-demanding environment and not living up to the words that came to define the program.

“It’s embarrassing when people in the state look at the logo and they’re like, ‘Hey, you should be in the Mountain West,'” McChesney said. “So the fact that he’s brought the pride back to the university when our motto is ‘The pride and tradition of the Colorado Buffaloes will not be entrusted to the timid or the f—ing weak,’ it resonates.”


Receiver-turned-tight-end Mikey Harrison is one of the 10 scholarship players returning from last season. As some teammates talked of transferring after the coaching change, Harrison was convinced he wanted to stick it out.

“I knew he was going to bring guys here, and to me, I’ve always believed in myself and believed in my abilities on the field,” Harrison said. “I even thought, this is one of the greatest football players of all time. … I feel like he’ll be able to see my ability.”

Harrison’s exit interview went better than many other returners, and he went into the summer believing he had a good shot at playing time this fall. Still, it marked a kind of awkward transition as many close friends departed.

“It kind of sucks in the moment. You build relationships with the guys you’ve been here with forever and then you see ’em go,” Harrison said. “Some guys are ending up in better positions for themselves, which obviously as a friend and as a teammate, that’s what you want for them.

“And then the guys coming in like any other team, you just embrace them because you know that these are the guys you’re going to go play with on Saturday. There’s no other option but to accept them and embrace into our team and into our community at CU.”

For the incoming players, like former Florida State defensive back Omarion Cooper, the opportunity to head to Boulder was similar to signing as a free agent for an expansion team. They weren’t transferring to play for a team that just went 1-11. That team no longer existed. They were signing up for the chance to play for one of football’s all-time best players as he built a team from scratch.

Cooper didn’t arrive until after spring practice. It wasn’t ideal timing given all the missed reps from the spring, but there’s a confidence that comes from having played major college football that eases the learning curve.

“It was a little challenging [coming in late], but having that college experience, being through workouts and stuff like that, you kind of know what to expect,” he said. “So, it was a little challenging, but we got adjusted pretty well.”

Given all the moving pieces, it might be hard to get a firm grasp on what the Buffaloes’ season will look like. But expectations are not high. They are projected to finish second to last in the conference with Las Vegas odds ranging from +5,000 to +15,000 to win the conference in their last Pac-12 season before the Buffaloes return to the Big 12.

“I really don’t even too much care about that,” quarterback Shedeur Sanders said at Pac-12 media day. “Because that’s what [media is] supposed to do. They’re supposed to hype things up and create chaos. That’s what media is.”

Of course, the Buffs haven’t won a conference title since 2001. The old way decidedly wasn’t working.

So Colorado is trying something different — something that has never been done in the modern history of the sport. It took a perfect storm of a one-of-a-kind coach, an overhaul of NCAA rules and a program desperate for respectability.

Will it work this year? Will it work at all?

That might be impossible to say right now. But either way, don’t expect Sanders to assign credit or blame to the team’s culture. That’s not what scores points or makes tackles.

ESPN reporters Tom VanHaaren and Mark Schlabach contributed to this story.

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Cubs’ Horton exits after 3 IP ‘as a precaution’

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Cubs' Horton exits after 3 IP 'as a precaution'

CHICAGO — Right-hander Cade Horton was removed after three innings of his start in the Chicago Cubs‘ game against the New York Mets on Tuesday because of back tightness. The club said Horton was removed “as a precaution” after throwing just 29 pitches.

Horton, a leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate, allowed a leadoff homer to New York’s Francisco Lindor but settled down and looked sharp for the remainder of his short outing. Horton allowed two hits, struck out two and departed with the Cubs leading 5-1.

After the Cubs extended the advantage to 6-1, New York rallied against the Chicago bullpen, scoring five unearned runs against Michael Soroka to tie the game and later grabbing the lead in a matchup with playoff implications for both clubs.

Horton, 24, is 11-4 on the season with a 2.67 ERA over 118 innings. The win total leads all rookie pitchers and the ERA leads rookies who have logged at least 100 innings.

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Guardians’ Fry exits after 99 mph pitch hits face

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Guardians' Fry exits after 99 mph pitch hits face

CLEVELAND — Guardians designated hitter David Fry was carted off the field in the sixth inning of Tuesday night’s 5-2 win over the Detroit Tigers after being hit in the face by a pitch as he tried to bunt.

Fry squared around on a 99 mph fastball from Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, and the pitch struck him in the nose and mouth area before deflecting off his bat.

As Fry collapsed in the batter’s box and grabbed his face, a visibly shaken Skubal threw off his glove and cap as Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt and trainers rushed onto the field.

Fry laid in the batter’s box for several minutes before being slowly helped to his feet. He was driven off in a cart, and the Guardians later said he was being assessed at Lutheran Medical Center.

Fry was then transferred to the Cleveland Clinic Main Campus, where the team said he was likely to stay overnight for more testing and observation.

Skubal expressed concern afterward and said that he tried reaching out to Fry.

“I just want to make sure he’s all right,” Skubal said. “He seemed OK coming off the field, and hopefully it stays that way. I look forward to, hopefully tonight or tomorrow morning, getting a text from him and making sure he’s all good. There are things that are bigger than the game, and his health is more important than a baseball game.”

Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, paced around the infield as Fry was being helped. The left-hander then threw a wild pitch to George Valera, who replaced Fry, allowing Cleveland to score. Skubal was also called for a balk in the inning as the Guardians rallied for three runs to take a 3-2 lead.

With the win, Cleveland moved into a tie with Detroit for first place in the AL Central. The Guardians were 15½ games behind the Tigers on July 8 and still 12½ games back on Aug. 25.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Breaking down every conference

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College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Breaking down every conference

The 12-team College Football Playoff has significantly broadened the pool of candidates to include any team that has a chance to win its conference — and that makes every FBS race matter longer, as the selection committee’s five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff.

Heading into the final Saturday of September, the shifting continues as conference races are just beginning to heat up.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: Ole Miss. The Rebels gained serious top-12 consideration this week after a 4-0 start that included back-to-back wins against SEC opponents (Kentucky and Arkansas) and a 45-10 drubbing of a talented Tulane team. Ole Miss is No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have a 47.7% chance to achieve the same record against the same opponents. The real test, though, is on Saturday when Ole Miss hosts LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC). If the Rebels win, they should be undefeated heading into back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma. Those are the most difficult games on the schedule. If the Rebels can go 2-1 against those three opponents, they’d almost certainly be in. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 67% chance to reach the playoff.

The enigma: Texas. The Longhorns dropped out of the top 12 this week because Texas Tech moved in. That doesn’t mean Texas isn’t a playoff team — it just hasn’t proved it yet with wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. The SEC season opener at Florida on Oct. 4 is also a strange one, as it’s a game the Longhorns could lose but shouldn’t if they are a real playoff team. They’ve got a bye week to prepare for it. A Texas win won’t do much to reassert its place in the national picture, but a loss would be telling. The most likely outcome is the selection committee will learn more about Texas on Oct. 11 against rival Oklahoma, which is in the projected top 12 this week.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt

Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina


Big Ten

Spotlight: Indiana. No team saw its playoff chances increase more this week than Indiana, which jumped 28% and now has a 57% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Saturday’s historic beatdown of the Illini pushed the Hoosiers to No. 11 in the latest projection, but that means they would be excluded from the field during the seeding process. IU would get bumped out to make room for Memphis, the projected winner of the American and fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because Memphis is currently projected outside of the committee’s top 12 — and projected Big 12 winner Texas Tech is currently in the No. 12 spot — the committee’s No. 11 team is the one that gets bounced. If the Hoosiers continue to dominate, though, they will likely climb to a safer spot within the top 10. Indiana has a tougher playoff path this year than last, as it travels to both Oregon and Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Hoosiers less than a 50% chance to beat the Ducks but projects them to beat Penn State.

The enigma: Michigan. The true identity of this team — whether it’s been with interim head coach Biff Poggi or head coach Sherrone Moore — remains a mystery. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has rebounded since the Week 2 loss at Oklahoma. Michigan found a way to win at Nebraska, the defense for the most part has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. The Wolverines most likely need to at least split with those opponents to avoid a third loss. If Michigan can do that and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee would give the Wolverines serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams would be out there — and how their résumés would stack up.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State

Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Washington

Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin


ACC

Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (12.2%), according to ESPN Analytics, behind Florida State and Miami. Georgia Tech doesn’t face either of those teams during the regular season — which is why the Jackets might not lose until the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And they took the Bulldogs to eight overtimes last year in one of the wildest games of the season. If the Jackets finish as a one-loss team with a close loss to Georgia, they’d be in the ACC title game. Florida State and Miami play each other, so one of them has a guaranteed league loss. Georgia Tech would be a lock with an ACC title, but what if it loses, with its only two losses coming to two conference champions — Georgia and whoever wins the ACC? The committee would have a significant debate about this, and it would depend on how the game unfolded and how many other two-loss teams were out there. It’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the ACC runner-up in that scenario, which means the league could get three teams in.

The enigma: Syracuse. That’s right, the Syracuse team that beat Clemson. On the road. With its backup quarterback finishing the game. Are these guys for real? Their lone loss was to a Tennessee team that remains in the committee’s projected top 12. The wins, though, leave something to prove before Syracuse is taken seriously as a contender in the ACC, let alone the CFP. The Orange needed overtime to beat UConn, and the committee will look right over a 66-24 win against Colgate. It’s going to get more difficult, as the Orange will face Georgia Tech and have back-to-back November road trips to Miami and Notre Dame, with a bye week in between. And if Syracuse is going to keep winning, it’s going to have to do it with backup quarterback Rickie Collins, an LSU transfer. ESPN’s FPI gives the Orange less than a 50% chance to win each of those games and the Oct. 4 trip to SMU.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Florida State, Miami

Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest

Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech


Big 12

Spotlight: Iowa State. The Cyclones are still hanging around at 4-0, but Texas Tech has eclipsed them as the team to beat in the Big 12 after Saturday’s win at Utah. The Red Raiders now have the best chance to win the league (28.6%), while Iowa State’s chances of even reaching the game are now seventh best at 13%. The Cyclones’ best win is against rival Iowa, as the season-opening win against K-State in Dublin has been diminished by the Wildcats’ 1-3 start. Iowa State had a bye week to prepare for Saturday’s home game against Arizona, which could be more difficult than it might seem. The key stretch for the Cyclones, though, starts on Oct. 25 against BYU, followed by Arizona State and a Nov. 8 trip to TCU.

The enigma: TCU. Just how good is this Horned Frogs team? The season-opening win at North Carolina caught the nation’s attention for all the wrong reasons — the focus was on Bill Belichick’s first loss as a college coach, not the Frogs’ road win. The 35-24 win against SMU was more impressive, even though it was at home, as it was against the best competition to date and the last scheduled game between the former Southwest Conference rivals. Coach Sonny Dykes has engineered the Frogs to a miracle playoff berth before. Can he do it again? According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, TCU has the third-best chance in the Big 12 to reach the CFP (17.6%). If the Frogs don’t clinch a spot with a Big 12 title, it’s going to be tough to win a debate over other contenders if they finish with two losses.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Texas Tech

Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah

Would be out: Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado


Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish got their first win on Saturday against Purdue and earned some style points in the process, beating the Boilermakers 56-30. They did exactly what they needed to following an 0-2 start. Now they have to do it nine more times. Even with a 10-2 finish, an at-large bid isn’t a guarantee. It depends on how many other 10-2 teams the committee has to consider, what their résumés are — and what those two losses look like. If nothing else, Notre Dame might finish with two of the best losses in the country.


Group of 5

Spotlight: Memphis. The Tigers jumped into the top G5 spot following their 32-31 win against Arkansas on Saturday. Memphis edged South Florida for lead contender status for a playoff bid as one of the five projected highest-ranked conference champions. Memphis rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat Arkansas, its fourth straight home win against an SEC opponent. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Memphis has a 36% chance to reach the playoff, the best among Group of 5 schools. The American has a 73% chance to send a team to the CFP, as four of the six Group of 5 teams with at least a 5% chance come from that conference (Memphis, North Texas, South Florida and Tulane). Speaking of North Texas …

The enigma: North Texas. Meet the Mean Green, an undefeated team that has wins against Washington State and Army. It took overtime to beat both Army and Western Michigan on the road, but North Texas dismantled Washington State 59-10. South Florida and Navy are the two toughest opponents remaining, but North Texas doesn’t currently have any top-25 teams on its schedule. According to ESPN Analytics, it has the second-best chance to win the American (21.5%) behind Memphis (42.7%). Those teams don’t play each other during the regular season.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Memphis

Work to do: Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Miami

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