The number of house and flat sales in the UK this year is set to be the lowest in a decade, according to new figures from a leading property website.
Zoopla’s monthly house price index, which tracks the number of homes sold subject to contract, found levels were down a fifth so far compared to 2022.
It forecast that sales will be the lowest since 2012 by the end of the year, although it still expected around one million completions to be made in 2023.
It is the equivalent of every household in the country moving once every 23 years – far below the average of eight years, Zoopla said.
The firm said it “highlights the deep impact of recent economic changes on the housing market”.
It comes following a raft of figures from other property firms and lenders in recent months which also suggest a slump in the housing market.
Zoopla said the expected 21% decline in property sales by the end of 2023 was largely due to a fall in buyers with mortgages.
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“We expect the number of mortgaged sales to drop 28% on last year. On the other hand, cash sales will fall just 1% compared to 2022,” the company said.
The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 times in a row as it battles to bring down inflation and has warned they are likely to remain high for some time.
Zoopla executive director Richard Donnell said: “The housing market continues to feel the impact of higher mortgage rates and cost of living pressures.
“It’s resulting in weaker demand from buyers, fewer sales and very low house price growth.”
But Mr Donnell said he expected the number of sales to “recover well” in the coming two to three years due to “more flexible working, demographic trends from an ageing population, the strong labour market and high immigration”.
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Renters now in the majority in UK
He added Zoopla expected mortgage rates to fall below 5% later this year, but warned it would be a “drawn-out process”.
“Any falls to mortgage rates are unlikely to impact the market and improve affordability further until at least the first half of 2024.
“This is why we’re less optimistic about house price growth, which looks set to stay within the +2% to -2% range for the foreseeable future,” Mr Donnell added.
The Zoopla report also found that UK house prices have risen 0.1% in the last year, which is also the slowest rate since 2012.
The annual change in the cost of buying a home in August ranged from a rise of 1.7% in Scotland to -1% in London, the firm said.
Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “As wages rise relative to property prices, we know that once mortgage rates go low enough, we should see affordability to start to work its magic on the market again.
“The problem is that predicting exactly how low rates need to go, and when they’ll get there is a tricky business.”
Matt Thompson, head of sales at London-based estate agent Chestertons, said buyers had been more cautious and in some cases were delaying purchases.
He added: “However, there still are buyers who have already locked in a mortgage rate with their lender and are keen to secure a property before the rate expires.”
More than 600 artefacts have been stolen from a building housing items belonging to a museum in Bristol.
The items were taken from Bristol Museum’s British Empire and Commonwealth collection on 25 September, Avon and Somerset Police said.
The force described the burglary as involving “high-value” artefacts, as they appealed for the public’s help in identifying people caught on CCTV.
It is not clear why the appeal is being issued more than two months after the burglary occurred.
The break-in took place between 1am and 2am on Thursday 25 September when a group of four unknown males gained entry to a building in the Cumberland Road area of the city.
Detectives say they hope the four people on CCTV will be able to aid them with their enquiries.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Ramesh lives in fear every day. A police siren is enough to alarm him.
He’s one of up to 400,000 visa overstayers in the UK, one lawyer we spoke to believes.
It’s only an estimate because the Home Office has stopped collecting figures – which were unreliable in the first place.
Britain is being laughed at, one man told us, “because they know it’s a soft country”.
Image: ‘Ramesh’ came to the UK from India
We meet Ramesh (not his real name) at a Gurdwara, a Sikh place of worship, where he goes for food and support.
He insists he can’t return to India where he claims he was involved in political activism.
Ramesh says he came to the UK on a student visa in 2023, but it was cancelled when he failed to continue his studies after being involved in a serious accident.
He tells us he is doing cash-in-hand work for people who he knows through the community where he is living and is currently working on a house extension where he gets paid as little as £50 for nine hours labouring.
“It’s very difficult for me to live in the UK without my Indian or Pakistani community – also because there are a lot of Pakistani people who give me work in their houses for cleaning and for household things,” he adds.
‘What will become of people like us?’
Anike has lived in limbo for 12 years.
Now living in Greater Manchester, she came to the UK from Nigeria when her sister Esther was diagnosed with a brain tumour – she had a multi-entry visa but was supposed to leave after three months.
Esther had serious complications from brain surgery and says she is reliant on her sister for care.
Immigration officials are in touch with her because she has to digitally sign in every month.
Anike has had seven failed applications for leave to remain on compassionate grounds refused but is now desperate to have her status settled – afraid of the shifting public mood over migration.
“Everybody is thinking ‘what will become of people like us?'” she adds.
‘It’s a shambles’
The government can’t say with any degree of accuracy how many visa overstayers there are in Britain – no data has been collated for five-and-a-half years.
But piecing together multiple accounts from community leaders and lawyers the picture we’ve built is stark.
Immigration lawyer Harjap Singh Bhangal told us he believed there could be several hundred thousand visa overstayers currently in Britain.
He says: “At this time, there’s definitely in excess of about 200,000 people overstaying in the UK. It might even be closer to 300,000, it could even be 400,000.”
Asked what evidence he has for this he replies: “Every day I see at least one overstayer, any immigration lawyers like me see overstayers and that is the bulk of the work for immigration lawyers.
“The Home Office doesn’t have any accurate data because we don’t have exit controls. It’s a shambles. It’s an institution where every wall in the building is cracked.”
The number of those who are overstaying visas and working cash in hand is also virtually impossible to measure.
‘They know Britain is a soft country’
“They’re laughing at us because they know Britain is a soft country, where you won’t be picked up easily,” says the local man we’ve arranged to meet as part of our investigation.
We’re in Kingsbury in northwest London – an area which people say has been transformed over the past five years as post-Brexit visa opportunities opened up for people coming from South Asia.
‘Mini-Mumbai’
The man we’re talking to lives in the community and helps with events here. He doesn’t want to be identified but raises serious questions about visa abuse.
“Since the last five years, a huge amount of people have come in this country on this visiting visa, and they come with one thing in mind – to overstay and work in cash,” he says.
“This area is easy to live in because they know they can survive. It looks like as if you are walking through mini-Mumbai.”
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‘The system is more than broken’
‘It’s taxpayers who are paying’
And he claims economic migrants are regularly arriving – who’ve paid strangers to pretend they’re a friend or relative in order to obtain a visitor visa to get to Britain.
He says: “I’ve come across so many people who have come this way into this country. It’s widespread. When I talk to these people, they literally tell me, ‘Oh, someone is coming tomorrow, day after tomorrow, someone is coming’.
“Because they’re hidden they may not be claiming benefits, but they can access emergency healthcare and their children can go to school.
“And who is paying for it? It’s the taxpayers who are paying for all this,” says the man we’ve met in north London.
A Home Office spokesperson said: “We will not tolerate any abuse of our immigration system and anyone found to be breaking the rules will be liable to have enforcement action taken against them.
“In the first year of this government, we have returned 35,000 people with no right to be here – a 13% rise compared to the previous year.
“Arrests and raids for illegal working have soared to their highest levels since records began, up 63% and 51%.”
Harjap Singh Bhangal described the situation as a “shambles”.
“The Home Office doesn’t have any accurate data because we don’t have exit controls. It’s a shambles. It’s an institution where every wall in the building is cracked,” he told Sky’s Lisa Holland.
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5:05
The visa overstayers in ‘soft’ Britain
Why doesn’t the government know?
The Home Office used to gather data on visa overstayers by effectively checking a list of passport numbers associated with visas against a list of passport numbers of people leaving the UK, taken from airlines and other international travel providers.
If there was a passport number match in the arrivals and departures part of their database, that person was recorded to have left when they should have. If there wasn’t, they were a potential overstayer.
They stopped producing the figures because a combination of Brexit and COVID added complications that made the Home Office conclude they wouldn’t be able to get to a reliable number using the same method.
It’s now four and a half years since EU citizens had freedom of movement to the UK revoked, and more than three and a half years since pandemic-era travel restrictions ended.
And yet we are still waiting to see what a new method might look like.
The old method wasn’t perfect. If someone changed their passport while in the UK, for example, or if the airline or individual entered the number wrong when they were leaving, there wouldn’t be a match.
The Home Office regarded the statistics as likely overestimating the true number of overstayers, and the Office for National Statistics designated the figures as “experimental” rather than “official” statistics, meaning the conclusions should be treated with caution. But they were a reasonable best guess.
With all that in mind, between April 2016 and March 2020 upwards of 250,000 people were flagged as potential overstayers, equivalent to 63,000 per year.
That’s more than the 190,000 people who are recorded to have arrived in the UK on small boats since 2018.
It represents 3.5% of the seven million visas that expired over that period, so at least 96.5% of people left when they should.
Other Home Office data reveals that more than 13 million visas were issued between 2020 and the end of June 2025, including a record 3.4 million in 2023.
But what we don’t know is how many have expired, which means it’s difficult for us to even guess how many people might have overstayed.