The number of house and flat sales in the UK this year is set to be the lowest in a decade, according to new figures from a leading property website.
Zoopla’s monthly house price index, which tracks the number of homes sold subject to contract, found levels were down a fifth so far compared to 2022.
It forecast that sales will be the lowest since 2012 by the end of the year, although it still expected around one million completions to be made in 2023.
It is the equivalent of every household in the country moving once every 23 years – far below the average of eight years, Zoopla said.
The firm said it “highlights the deep impact of recent economic changes on the housing market”.
It comes following a raft of figures from other property firms and lenders in recent months which also suggest a slump in the housing market.
Zoopla said the expected 21% decline in property sales by the end of 2023 was largely due to a fall in buyers with mortgages.
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“We expect the number of mortgaged sales to drop 28% on last year. On the other hand, cash sales will fall just 1% compared to 2022,” the company said.
The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 times in a row as it battles to bring down inflation and has warned they are likely to remain high for some time.
Zoopla executive director Richard Donnell said: “The housing market continues to feel the impact of higher mortgage rates and cost of living pressures.
“It’s resulting in weaker demand from buyers, fewer sales and very low house price growth.”
But Mr Donnell said he expected the number of sales to “recover well” in the coming two to three years due to “more flexible working, demographic trends from an ageing population, the strong labour market and high immigration”.
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Renters now in the majority in UK
He added Zoopla expected mortgage rates to fall below 5% later this year, but warned it would be a “drawn-out process”.
“Any falls to mortgage rates are unlikely to impact the market and improve affordability further until at least the first half of 2024.
“This is why we’re less optimistic about house price growth, which looks set to stay within the +2% to -2% range for the foreseeable future,” Mr Donnell added.
The Zoopla report also found that UK house prices have risen 0.1% in the last year, which is also the slowest rate since 2012.
The annual change in the cost of buying a home in August ranged from a rise of 1.7% in Scotland to -1% in London, the firm said.
Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “As wages rise relative to property prices, we know that once mortgage rates go low enough, we should see affordability to start to work its magic on the market again.
“The problem is that predicting exactly how low rates need to go, and when they’ll get there is a tricky business.”
Matt Thompson, head of sales at London-based estate agent Chestertons, said buyers had been more cautious and in some cases were delaying purchases.
He added: “However, there still are buyers who have already locked in a mortgage rate with their lender and are keen to secure a property before the rate expires.”
A man has been arrested on suspicion of murder after three children and a woman died in a house fire in Brent, northwest London.
Metropolitan Police officers are investigating after being called to assist firefighters in Stonebridge, near Wembley, shortly after 1.20am.
A 43-year-old woman and three children, a 15-year-old girl, an eight-year-old boy and a four-year-old boy, died at the scene, the force said. Their next of kin have been informed.
Police are waiting for an update on the conditions of two others who were taken to hospital.
A 41-year-old man was arrested at the scene in connection with the incident and remains in custody.
Image: Pics: PA
Eight fire engines and around 60 firefighters responded to the blaze, the London Fire Brigade (LFB) said.
Two terrace houses, each with three floors, were severely damaged in the fire, which was under control by around 3.25am, the fire service added.
Firefighters rescued the woman and one of the children from the second floor of the house, but they were declared dead by air ambulance crews.
The two other children were found inside the property and were also declared dead at the scene, LFB said.
Image: Emergency services at the scene. Pics: PA
LFB assistant commissioner Keeley Foster said: “Upon arrival, firefighters were met with a well-developed fire, involving two adjoining properties. Crews immediately set to work carrying out firefighting operations in order to bring the incident under control.
“Sadly, a woman and three children have died as a result of this fire.
“Crews wearing breathing apparatus were able to rescue the woman and one of the children from the second floor, but they were later declared deceased at the scene.
“A further two children were discovered to have died in the fire, as crews carried out a search of the properties involved.”
She added: “This is an extremely tragic incident, and the thoughts of everyone across the brigade are with those impacted by this incident.”
Image: Pic: PA
London Ambulance Service said an air ambulance, incident response officers, advanced paramedic and hazardous area response team were deployed to the scene.
Superintendent Steve Allen, from the Met’s local policing team in northwest London, said: “This is an extremely tragic incident and our thoughts are with everyone involved.
“Officers arrested a man at the scene and we continue to work alongside investigators from the London Fire Brigade to establish the cause of the fire.
“Emergency services will remain in Tillett Close throughout the day as these enquiries take place.”
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said in a post on X: “This is devastating news and my thoughts are with the family, friends and wider community of the four people who sadly have lost their lives.
“I remain in close contact with the London Fire Brigade and Metropolitan Police as they work to establish the cause of the fire and offer support to all those impacted.”
Dawn Butler, the local Labour MP for Brent East, posted: “Devastated to see the fatal fire at homes in Tillett Close last night.
“My prayers are with the family and friends affected by this is a very sad tragedy.
“@LFB_Brent worked hard to get it under control, thank you.”
The teacher of one of the Southport stabbing victims has told Sky News they “don’t want her to be forgotten”, 10 months after the knife attack in which she was murdered.
Seven-year-old Elsie Dot Stancombe was killed along with Bebe King, six, and nine-year-old Alice da Silva Aguiar in an attack by Axel Rudakubana at a Taylor Swift-themed dance class last July.
Jennifer Sephton, headteacher of Farnborough Road Infant School, will be skydiving to raise funds for the Elsie’s Story charitable trust, which has been set up in memory of the former pupil.
Image: (L-R) Alice da Silva Aguiar, Elsie Dot Stancombe and Bebe King were killed in an attack at a Taylor Swift-themed class
“She’d been with us for four years, throughout her education,” Ms Sephton told Sky News, “and we just want everybody to know Elsie’s spirit.”
Describing Elsie as “such a determined young lady,” Ms Sephton said Elsie had “a real zest for life, and a sparkle in her eye all the time.”
She added that Elsie’s Story, which has been set up by Elsie’s family, is about “continuing that legacy.”
Image: Jennifer Sephton
In the aftermath of the July 2024 attack, the gates outside Elsie’s school were lined with flowers, balloons, and cards bearing her name.
Since then, memorial benches and a tree have been planted in the school grounds, providing pupils and staff with a place to “remember and reflect”, Ms Sefton says.
“[Elsie’s death] had such an impact on all our community,” the teacher said, “it’s had an impact on her friends, their siblings, our school as a community and our staff.”
Ms Sephton will be joined in the skydive by Adrian Antell, headteacher at the adjoining junior school where Elsie had been due to start.
“Elsie was due to come to us last September,” he told Sky News, “but what we’ve learned about her is that she had a wonderful impact in the infant school, and we don’t want her to be forgotten.
“We want her name to have to live on and to be thought of in a positive way.”
Mr Antell said they continue to support Elsie’s classmates, who joined the new school without her.
“There’s no instruction manual for this,” he explained, “every day is different, and every day is one step at a time.
“So all we can do as a school is to think about individual children and support them in the best way we can.”
Scientists from Kew Gardens are using a new study to track which trees bees prefer to try to stem the decline in our vital pollinators.
Bee populations are falling all over the world due to a mixture of habitat loss, climate change, and the use of pesticides, with a devastating impact on our biodiversity and food production.
But it’s feared that not enough comprehensive, global research is being done to understand the issue or find solutions.
Image: The study is building up heat maps of the most popular trees
Image: Non-invasive monitors track the buzz created by bees’ wing beats
UK becoming a no-fly zone
Researchers based at Wakehurst in Sussex, known as Kew’s “Wild Botanic Garden”, have begun placing advanced bio-acoustics sensors in some of their trees to track which ones bees favour.
They hope it’ll help urban planners know which trees to plant in built-up areas, as a way of combating the worrying decline in bee numbers.
Pollination research lead Dr Janine Griffiths-Lee said: “Nearly 90% of our flowering plants depend on the contribution of pollinators, but in the UK the population of flying insects in the last 20 years has decreased by around 60%.
“It’s really hard to be able to put a figure on the decline of our pollinators, but we do know that globally the number is declining.
“And with that comes crop yield instability and the loss of an essential ecosystem service.”
Their new, non-invasive monitors listen for the buzz created by bees’ wing beats, building up heat maps of the most popular spots.
Image: Bio-acoustics sensors are placed in trees to track which ones the bees are more drawn to
‘We’re facing twin crises’
Dr Griffiths-Lee said: “If you think about the tree’s footprint, it’s very small, but they’re huge 3D structures covered in pollen and nectar, which are essential resources of pollinators.
“So we really wanted to think about which are the best trees for bees for us to plant, and that can inform landscape planners, urban architects.”
Eight different species of tree were chosen for the study, including horse chestnut and lime trees, with a mixture of native and non-native species.
The scientists have also been gathering DNA from pollen, which also helps them to map which plants and flowers the insects prefer.
Wakehurst’s director, Susan Raikes, calls the 535-acre estate a “living laboratory”, and said the project’s all about searching for nature-based solutions to the impacts of climate change.
“The stakes couldn’t be higher, really. We know that we’re facing these twin crises of biodiversity loss and climate change,” she added.
“We need to be able to understand, as the climate changes, which plants from warmer climes will be good here in the UK for pollinators in the future.
“If all of our native plants are struggling, then we need to find new sources of pollen – for us all to survive.”