Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill issues warning over interest rate rises

Published

2 years ago

August 31, 2023

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The Bank of England’s chief economist has warned there is a risk of “unnecessary damage” being inflicted if interest rates increase too much.

Huw Pill told a conference in South Africa he was wary about the impact on “employment and growth” resulting from potential future hikes in the battle to bring down inflation.

It comes after the Bank upped interest rates for a 14th time in a row to 5.25% earlier this month and said it expected them to remain at high levels for longer than previously expected.

Mr Pill, who is a member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which sets the rates, told an event in Cape Town that it was vital to ensure a “lasting return” to the Bank’s inflation target of 2%.

The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation fell to 6.8% in the year to July, down from a peak of 11.1% last October.

But the Bank remains concerned that core inflation, which does not track items susceptible to sharp rises and falls, such as food and energy, remains “stubbornly high” at 6.9%.

Mr Pill said: “The key element is that we on the MPC need to see the job through and ensure a lasting and sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target.”

But he added the Bank had to be careful with interest rate rises, saying: “Now that policy is in restrictive territory, there is the possibility of doing too much and inflicting unnecessary damage on employment and growth.”

However, he went on to stress tackling inflation is still the key job at hand for now.

“At present, the emphasis is still on ensuring that we are – in the words of the MPC’s last statement – sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to ensure that we have that lasting return to target,” Mr Pill said.

The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will fall to around 4.9% in the last three months of the year.

It has come under pressure to continue raising interest rates to drag inflation down.

But concerns have also been raised about the impact of hikes on mortgage rates, which have been blamed for a slowdown in the housing market, and on other aspects of the economy.

The Institute for Public Policy Research thinktank recently warned there was a “very real risk” the UK could fall into a recession while rates remain high.

Mr Pill faced criticism earlier this year when he said the public needed to “accept” that they were poorer. He later expressed regret over his comments.

Business

Nandy to sign off appointment of Kogan as top football referee

Published

40 mins ago

April 24, 2025

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Nandy to sign off appointment of Kogan as top football referee

Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, is to sign off the appointment of a chair of English football’s new referee within days.

Sky News has learnt that David Kogan, a media industry veteran who has helped negotiate a string of television rights deals across the sport in recent decades, is to be formally approved as chair of the Independent Football Regulator (IFR).

Whitehall sources said an announcement could be made by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) as soon as this week, although they added that the timetable could slip by a few days.

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Once approved, Mr Kogan is expected to face a committee of MPs for a confirmation hearing early next month, the sources added.

Sky News revealed last weekend that Mr Kogan had emerged as the frontrunner for the post after an earlier shortlist of three candidates was passed over.

The new regulator has the firm backing of Sir Keir Starmer, and is a key element of legislation currently passing through Parliament.

Mr Kogan, whose boardroom roles have included a directorship at state-owned Channel 4, was initially approached during a previous recruitment process launched under the last Conservative administration.

He has some links to Labour, having in the past donated money to a number of individual parliamentary candidates, chairing LabourList, the independent news site, and writing two books about the party.

Mr Kogan has had extensive experience at the top of English football, having advised clients including the Premier League, English Football League, Scottish Premier League and UEFA on television rights contracts.

Last year, he acted as the lead negotiator for the Women’s Super League and Championship on their latest five-year broadcasting deals with Sky – the immediate parent company of Sky News – and the BBC.

His current roles include advising the chief executives of CNN, the American broadcast news network, and The New York Times Company on talks with digital platforms about the growing influence of artificial intelligence on their industries.

In recent months, Sky News has disclosed the identities of the shortlisted candidates for the role, with former Aston Villa FC and Liverpool FC chief executive Christian Purslow one of three candidates who made it to a supposedly final group of contenders.

The others were Sanjay Bhandari, who chairs the anti-racism football charity Kick It Out, and Professor Sir Ian Kennedy, who chaired the new parliamentary watchdog established after the MPs expenses scandal.

The apparent hiatus in the appointment of the IFR’s £130,000-a-year chair threatened to reignite speculation that Sir Keir was seeking to diminish its powers amid a broader clampdown on Britain’s economic watchdogs.

Both 10 Downing Street and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) have sought to dismiss those suggestions, with insiders insisting that the IFR will be established largely as originally envisaged.

The creation of the IFR, which will be based in Manchester, is among the principal elements of legislation now progressing through parliament, with Royal Assent expected before the summer recess.

The Football Governance Bill has completed its journey through the House of Lords and will be introduced in the Commons shortly, according to the DCMS.

The regulator was conceived by the Tories in the wake of the furore over the failed European Super League project, but has triggered deep unrest in parts of English football.

Its creation forms part of a process that represents the most fundamental shake-up in the oversight of English football in the game’s history.

The establishment of the body comes with the top tier of the professional game gripped by civil war, with Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City at the centre of a number of legal cases with the Premier League over its financial dealings.

The Premier League is also keen to agree a long-delayed financial redistribution deal with the EFL before the regulator is formally launched, although there has been little progress towards that in the last year.

“We do not comment on speculation,” a DCMS spokesperson said when asked about the impending announcement of Mr Kogan as the IFR chair.

“No appointment has been made and the recruitment process for [IFR] chair is ongoing.”

Business

Trade war: UK car exporter’s shares slump to four-year low

Published

4 hours ago

April 24, 2025

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Trade war: UK car exporter's shares slump to four-year low

A UK-based car distributor has seen its shares hit a four-year low after reporting a fall in sales and warning of hits ahead from Donald Trump’s trade war.

Inchcape, which exports cars for manufacturers across more than 40 countries globally, saw its stock lose up to 16.9% in early trading on Wednesday after its first quarter trading update.

It told investors that while it was not currently experiencing damage from the Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on all US car imports, revenue fell by 5% over the three months to March to £2.1bn.

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Inchcape reported a resilient performance from its Americas division but struggles in its Asia-Pacific and European markets.

The period was dominated by trade war fears generally as the US president’s second term got under way and was marked by a surge in demand for goods in the US in a bid to beat any tariffs he threatened to impose.

Inchcape blamed the revenue decline on a strong comparable period in 2024 and “mixed market momentum”, led by that dash for shipments to the US to beat the imposition of any additional US duties.

They were universally imposed earlier this month, but Mr Trump has since signalled that some exemptions may soon be applied.

There are fears that a prolonged period of trade disruption could result in job losses within the UK car industry and its supply chain.

Inchcape reaffirmed its 2025 guidance but said that excluded any impacts from tariffs.

Its actions to mitigate the effects included a focus on costs and inventory.

Chief executive Duncan Tait said: “Demand is not currently being impacted by the tariff situation, although we do expect to see potential impacts on supply from our OEMs (original equipment manufacturers), the competitive environment, and market demand.

“We are taking proactive steps to support our key stakeholders, including taking a conservative approach to managing inventory levels, ensuring we remain disciplined on costs, focusing on cash generation and maintaining our strong balance sheet.”

Shares had recovered some poise by mid-morning, trading down by just over 7% following the initial slump.

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Audio technology group Waves hello to £300m London float

Published

4 hours ago

April 24, 2025

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Audio technology group Waves hello to £300m London float

An audio technology business used by many of the world’s leading musicians is plotting a £300m City flotation in a boost to London’s flagging stock market.

Sky News has learnt that Waves Audio, which is headquartered in Israel, has hired bankers to oversee an initial public offering which could take place as soon as June.

The company, which is majority-owned by founders Meir Sha’ashua and Gilad Keren, is expected to raise millions of pounds from the sale of new shares, although the details have yet to be finalised.

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Panmure Liberum has been appointed to work on the float.

Waves Audio makes professional digital audio signal processing technology and audio effects used in recordings, mixing, mastering, post-production, broadcasting and live sound.

It employs more than 200 people, and has a major international presence, including in Europe and the US.

A board is said to be being assembled to support Waves Audio’s transition to being a public company.

A successful float on London’s main market would be a relative rarity given the depressed level of IPO activity in recent months.

Data compiled by EY, the professional services firm, showed that there were just five new listings on the London market in the first quarter of the year.

Scott McCubbin, EY UKI IPO leader, said this month: “The IPO market thrives on stability, but ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical instability continues to subdue listing activity in the UK. Following the announcement of US trade tariffs, we’ve seen market volatility grow to levels not seen since the COVID pandemic.

“Companies considering an IPO must now weigh the risks of listing in such turbulent conditions, alongside rising input costs.

“The ambiguity surrounding global trade policy is also likely to dampen investor appetite and could lead to delayed listings or reduced valuations in the year ahead.”

Pessimism about the outlook for flotations has been compounded by a steady trickle of companies cancelling their London listings or shifting them overseas.

The UK market’s biggest hope continues to be that Shein, the Chinese-founded online fashion retailer, will defy the impact of President Trump’s tariffs and list in London in the coming months.

A spokesman for Waves Audio declined to comment.