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House prices fell by 5.3% in the year to August – a bigger-than-expected drop, according to Nationwide.

This means the typical home is now worth £14,600 less than 12 months ago – with an average property price of £259,153.

Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, says the softening is “not surprising” – with interest rate hikes by the Bank of England sending mortgage payments higher.

Activity in the housing market is currently running well below pre-pandemic levels – with mortgage approvals about 20% below the 2019 average in recent months.

But Mr Gardner struck an upbeat note after Nationwide’s latest House Price Index was released – and said “a relatively soft landing is still achievable.”

He added: “In particular, unemployment is expected to remain low (below 5%) and the vast majority of existing borrowers should be able to weather the impact of higher borrowing costs, given the high proportion on fixed rates, and where affordability testing should ensure that those needing to refinance can afford the higher payments.”

And while activity may remain subdued in the near term, Mr Gardner believes a mix of income growth and lower house prices could improve affordability if mortgage rates cool.

Tesco cuts prices – and it’s good news for parents | Cost of living latest

Andrew Wishart, senior property economist at Capital Economics, believes this “marks the start of a significant further drop in house prices”.

He believes that, by mid-2024, house prices will be 10.5% below their August 2022 peak – with mortgage rates set to remain between 5.5% and 6% for the next 12 months.

Analysis: For many, house prices can’t fall far enough


Paul Kelso - Health correspondent

Paul Kelso

Business correspondent

@pkelso

The UK housing market has long lost touch with reality – but the recent modest fall in prices, confirmed by the Nationwide house price index figures for August, does follow the logic of economic trends.

After 14 consecutive Bank of England increases pushed the base rate to 5.25% and many mortgages beyond 6%, it would have been a surprise had the housing market not been affected.

While prices have been falling the volume of completions has stalled too, reflecting perhaps that many potential movers are waiting to see where rates will peak before they take the plunge.

For those looking to sell or buy from an existing home the impact will be largely theoretical, with the cost of remortgaging and the swingeing impact of stamp duty far more consequential in decision making.

A drop of more than 5% will be most welcome to first-time buyers, but the benefit will likely be wiped out by the increased cost of the mortgage required to get on the ladder in the first place.

For millions, prices cannot fall far enough to make that first step realistic, the hike in borrowing costs compounding an affordability crisis that has seen the average house price balloon to eight times the average wage in two decades.

According to Nationwide, there was a 25% drop in first-time buyers in the first half of 2023 when compared with 2019.

“A first-time buyer earning the average wage and buying a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would now see their monthly mortgage payment absorb over 40% of their take-home pay (with a mortgage rate of 6%) – well above the long run average of 29%,” Mr Gardner added.

There has also been a shift in the types of properties being purchased – with a big decline in demand for detached houses as buyers look for smaller, less expensive places.

Additional housing bills are piling more misery on families at a time when the main measure of inflation is easing back from the highs of last winter, when unprecedented energy costs hit Western economies.

The evolving cost of living crisis has squeezed affordability and demand at estate agents – and the Bank wants a wider economic slowdown to help cool the pace of price rises.

Data released by the Bank earlier this week showed that mortgage approvals had dropped by almost 10% last month.

Separate figures from property website Zoopla suggested that the UK was on track for about one million house and flat sales by the end of this year – the lowest level since 2012.

Average rates for two and five-year fixed residential mortgages remain above 6%.

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Renters now in the majority in UK

Higher funding costs for lenders are down to expectations the Bank of England still has some way to go in its battle against inflation.

Financial markets currently expect the Bank’s rate to peak just shy of 6% early next year – from its current level of 5.25%.

Nationwide, like other mortgage lenders in the shifting rate environment, revealed on Thursday that it was reducing some fixed and tracker products by up to 0.15 percentage points from today.

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UK signs deal to hand over control of Chagos islands

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UK signs deal to hand over control of Chagos islands

The UK has signed a long-awaited deal to hand control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

It means Britain will give up sovereignty of the Indian Ocean territory and lease back the vital UK-US Diego Garcia military base – at a cost of billions of pounds to the taxpayer.

Politics Live: Starmer signs deal to hand over UK control of Chagos Islands to Mauritius

In a news conference, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the base is of the “utmost significance to Britain”, having been used to deploy aircraft to “defeat terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan”, and “anticipate threats in the Red Sea and the Indo-Pacific”.

He said the base was under threat because of Mauritius’s legal claim on the Chagos Islands, which has been recognised by multiple international courts.

“If we did not agree this deal, the legal situation would mean that we would not be able to prevent China or any other nation setting up their own bases on the outer islands, or carrying out joint exercises near our base,” Sir Keir said.

“We would have to explain to you, the British people and to our allies, that we’d lost control of this vital asset.

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“No responsible government could let that happen, so there’s no alternative but to act in Britain’s national interest by agreeing to this deal.

“We will never gamble with national security.”

FILE - This image released by the U.S. Navy shows an aerial view of Diego Garcia in the Chagos Island group. (U.S. Navy via AP, File)
Image:
Aerial view of Diego Garcia in the Chagos Island group. Pic: AP

The deal means the UK will lease the base from the Mauritian government over 99 years.

Confusion over costs

Sir Keir said the average cost per year is £101m but the net overall cost is £3.4bn, not £10bn, and all public sector projects are measured in net costs.

However, there is confusion over the government’s calculations as the full agreement between the UK and Mauritius reveals the UK will pay:

• £165m a year for the first three years;
• £120m for years four to 13;
• £120m plus inflation for every year after to year 99;
• £40m as a one-off to a fund for Chagossians;
• £45m a year for 25 years for Mauritian development.

If inflation were to remain zero for the next century, this would work out to around £10bn over 99 years.

Assuming an average of 2% inflation, Sky News analysis suggests costs could rise as high as £30bn.

Downing Street stood by its figures, saying government accounting principles were applied to adjust for long-term costs and the value of the pound today is worth more than the pound in the future.

Officials denied suggestions from journalists that was financial sophistry, insisting it was “standard practice”.

Sir Keir said that had he not struck the deal today, Mauritius would have taken the UK to international courts and probably won, with extra penalties implemented.

However the Tories – who started negotiations in government – have branded the move a “surrender tax”.

Keir Starmer
Image:
Keir Starmer

Sovereignty row

The Chagos Archipelago was separated from Mauritius by the UK in 1965, when Mauritius was a British colony.

Mauritius gained independence from the UK in 1968 and since then has been trying to claim the archipelago as Mauritian.

In the late 1960s, the US asked the UK to expel everyone from the archipelago so they could build a naval support facility on the largest island, Diego Garcia. It is leased to the US but operates as a joint UK-US base.

The UK has been under pressure to hand back control of the territory, after the UN and the International Court of Justice sided with Mauritius.

The treaty said the deal would “complete the process of decolonisation of Mauritius”.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said that “surrendering” the Chagos Islands to Mauritius “is an act of national self-harm”.

“It leaves us more exposed to China, and ignores the will of the Chagossian people. And we’re paying billions to do so,” she said.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage echoed those comments, accusing Sir Keir of caring more about foreign courts “than Britain’s national interest”.

The location of the Chagos Islands
Image:
The location of the Chagos Islands

‘Deal inherited from Tories’

However, Sir Keir said he “inherited a negotiation in which the principle of giving up UK sovereignty had already been conceded” by the Tories.

He said “all of the UK’s allies” support the deal, including the US, NATO, Five Eyes and India, and that those who are against it include “Russia, China, Iran…and surprisingly, the leader of the opposition, and Nigel Farage”.

Defence Secretary John Healey, who was also at the news conference, added that the last government failed to strike a deal despite 11 rounds of talks, leaving Labour to “pick up the challenge”.

He said ministers “toughened the terms and the protections and the control that Britain can exercise through this treaty”.

Under the deal’s terms, a 24-nautical mile buffer zone will be put in place around the island where nothing can be built or placed without UK consent.

The UK will retain full operational control of Diego Garcia, including the electromagnetic spectrum satellite used for communications which counters hostile interference.

Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, said he welcomed the “historic agreement”, saying it “secures the long-term, stable and effective operation of the joint US-UK military facility at Diego Garcia, which is critical to regional and global security”.

“We value both parties’ dedication. The US looks forward to our continued joint work to ensure the success of our shared operations,” he said.

The agreement had been due to be signed on Thursday morning but was temporarily blocked by an injunction hours before. A High Court Judge subsequently discharged the injunction at midday.

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Passengers injured after train hits trailer on level crossing near Leominster – as police arrest man

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Passengers injured after train hits trailer on level crossing near Leominster - as police arrest man

More than a dozen people have been injured after a train hit an agricultural trailer on a level crossing in Herefordshire, according to emergency services.

British Transport Police (BTP) said officers were called to the site north of Leominster at 10.40am on Thursday.

A man has been airlifted to hospital and a woman has also been taken to hospital.

A further 15 people, who were passengers on the train, were assessed by paramedics but discharged at the scene, West Midlands Ambulance Service said.

A spokesperson confirmed that nobody from the tractor-trailer required assessment.

Police have confirmed that a 32-year-old man from Bromyard has been arrested on suspicion of endangering safety on the railway.

Firefighters and officers from West Mercia Police also attended the scene.

A spokesperson for Transport for Wales (TfW) confirmed its 8.30am service between Manchester Piccadilly and Cardiff Central hit an “obstruction” at a crossing between Ludlow and Leominster.

All lines between the Hereford and Craven Arms stations are blocked and trains will not run between the two.

A train collided with a tractor at a level crossing near Leominster

Replacement road transport is being put in place and TfW tickets are currently being accepted by Northern, Avanti, GWR and CrossCountry, it said.

Disruption is expected to last until the end of the day and a spokesperson for the company advised anyone travelling on Thursday to check before they travel.

A spokesperson for West Midlands Ambulance Service said it was “called to an incident on the railway track at Nordan Farm, Leominster, at 10.46am”.

“On arrival crews found a man who was a passenger on the train, they treated him for non-life threatening injuries before conveying him by air ambulance to Hereford County Hospital,” they added.

“A woman was also treated for injuries not believed to be serious and conveyed by land ambulance to Hereford County Hospital.”

The Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) said it had sent a team of inspectors to Leominster “between a passenger train and an agricultural trailer at a user worked level crossing”, which require people to operate the crossing themselves.

“Our inspectors will gather evidence as part of the process of conducting a preliminary examination and a decision on whether an investigation will be launched will be taken in the coming days,” the spokesperson added.

British Transport Police said its enquiries were ongoing into the full circumstances of the incident.

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Economy will have to be ‘strong enough’ for U-turn on winter fuel, business secretary says

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Economy will have to be 'strong enough' for U-turn on winter fuel, business secretary says

The economy will have to be “strong enough” for the government to U-turn on winter fuel payment cuts, the business secretary has said.

Jonathan Reynolds, talking to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, also said the public would have to “wait for the actual budget” to make an announcement on it.

You can listen to the full interview on tomorrow’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast.

Sir Keir Starmer said on Wednesday he would ease the cut to the winter fuel payment, which has been removed from more than 10 million pensioners this winter after it became means-tested.

He and his ministers had insisted they would stick to their guns on the policy, even just hours before Sir Keir revealed his change of heart at Prime Minister’s Questions.

But Mr Reynolds revealed there is more at play to be able to change the policy.

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Winter fuel payment cuts to be reversed

“The economy has got to be strong enough to give you the capacity to make the kind of decisions people want us to see,” he said.

“We want people to know we’re listening.

“All the prime minister has said is ‘look, he’s listening, he’s aware of it.

“He wants a strong economy to be able to deliver for people.

“You’d have to wait for the actual budget to do that.”

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Gordon Brown suggests people on top income tax rate should be excluded from winter fuel

What are the options for winter fuel payments?

  • The Institute for Fiscal Studies has looked into the government’s options after Sir Keir Starmer said he is considering changes to the cut to winter fuel payment (WFP).
  • The government could make a complete U-turn on removing the payment from pensioners not claiming pension credit so they all receive it again.
  • There could be a higher eligibility threshold. Households not claiming pension credit could apply directly for the winter fuel payment, reporting their income and other circumstances.
  • Or, all pensioner households could claim it but those above a certain income level could do a self-assessment tax return to pay some of it back as a higher income tax charge. This could be like child benefit, where the repayment is based on the higher income member of the household.
  • Instead of reducing pension credit by £1 for every £1 of income, it could be withdrawn more slowly to entitle more households to it, and therefore WFP.
  • At the moment, WFP is paid to households but if it was paid to individuals the government could means-test each pensioner, rather than their household. This could be based on an individual’s income, which the government already records for tax purposes. Individuals who have a low income could get the payment, even if their spouse is high income. This would mean low income couples getting twice as much, whereas each eligible house currently gets the same.
  • Instead of just those receiving pension credit getting WFP, the government could extend it to pensioners who claim means-tested welfare for housing or council tax support. A total of 430,000 renting households would be eligible at a cost of about £100m a year.
  • Pensioners not on pension credit but receiving disability credits could get WFP, extending eligibility to 1.8m households in England and Scotland at a cost of about £500m a year.
  • Pensioners living in a band A-C property could be automatically entitled to WFP, affected just over half (6.3m).

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has committed to just one major fiscal event a year, meaning just one annual budget in the autumn.

Autumn budgets normally take place in October, with the last one at the end of the month.

If this year’s budget is around the same date it will leave little time for the extra winter fuel payments to be made as they are paid between November and December.

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