House prices fell by 5.3% in the year to August – a bigger-than-expected drop, according to Nationwide.
This means the typical home is now worth £14,600 less than 12 months ago – with an average property price of £259,153.
Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, says the softening is “not surprising” – with interest rate hikes by the Bank of England sending mortgage payments higher.
Activity in the housing market is currently running well below pre-pandemic levels – with mortgage approvals about 20% below the 2019 average in recent months.
But Mr Gardner struck an upbeat note after Nationwide’s latest House Price Index was released – and said “a relatively soft landing is still achievable.”
He added: “In particular, unemployment is expected to remain low (below 5%) and the vast majority of existing borrowers should be able to weather the impact of higher borrowing costs, given the high proportion on fixed rates, and where affordability testing should ensure that those needing to refinance can afford the higher payments.”
And while activity may remain subdued in the near term, Mr Gardner believes a mix of income growth and lower house prices could improve affordability if mortgage rates cool.
Andrew Wishart, senior property economist at Capital Economics, believes this “marks the start of a significant further drop in house prices”.
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He believes that, by mid-2024, house prices will be 10.5% below their August 2022 peak – with mortgage rates set to remain between 5.5% and 6% for the next 12 months.
Analysis: For many, house prices can’t fall far enough
The UK housing market has long lost touch with reality – but the recent modest fall in prices, confirmed by the Nationwide house price index figures for August, does follow the logic of economic trends.
After 14 consecutive Bank of England increases pushed the base rate to 5.25% and many mortgages beyond 6%, it would have been a surprise had the housing market not been affected.
While prices have been falling the volume of completions has stalled too, reflecting perhaps that many potential movers are waiting to see where rates will peak before they take the plunge.
For those looking to sell or buy from an existing home the impact will be largely theoretical, with the cost of remortgaging and the swingeing impact of stamp duty far more consequential in decision making.
A drop of more than 5% will be most welcome to first-time buyers, but the benefit will likely be wiped out by the increased cost of the mortgage required to get on the ladder in the first place.
For millions, prices cannot fall far enough to make that first step realistic, the hike in borrowing costs compounding an affordability crisis that has seen the average house price balloon to eight times the average wage in two decades.
According to Nationwide, there was a 25% drop in first-time buyers in the first half of 2023 when compared with 2019.
“A first-time buyer earning the average wage and buying a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would now see their monthly mortgage payment absorb over 40% of their take-home pay (with a mortgage rate of 6%) – well above the long run average of 29%,” Mr Gardner added.
There has also been a shift in the types of properties being purchased – with a big decline in demand for detached houses as buyers look for smaller, less expensive places.
Additional housing bills are piling more misery on families at a time when the main measure of inflation is easing back from the highs of last winter, when unprecedented energy costs hit Western economies.
The evolving cost of living crisis has squeezed affordability and demand at estate agents – and the Bank wants a wider economic slowdown to help cool the pace of price rises.
Average rates for two and five-year fixed residential mortgages remain above 6%.
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Renters now in the majority in UK
Higher funding costs for lenders are down to expectations the Bank of England still has some way to go in its battle against inflation.
Financial markets currently expect the Bank’s rate to peak just shy of 6% early next year – from its current level of 5.25%.
Nationwide, like other mortgage lenders in the shifting rate environment, revealed on Thursday that it was reducing some fixed and tracker products by up to 0.15 percentage points from today.
The Home Office is looking at what Denmark is doing to cut illegal migration, Sky News understands.
Last month, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood dispatched officials to the Nordic nation to study its border control and asylum policies, which are considered some of the toughest in Europe.
In particular, officials are understood to be looking at Denmark’s tighter rules on family reunion and restricting most refugees to a temporary stay in the country.
Ms Mahmood will announce a major shake-up of the UK’s immigration system later this month, PA is reporting.
Labour MPs are said to be split on the move.
Some, in so-called Red Wall seats which are seen as vulnerable to challenge from Reform UK, want ministers to go further in the direction Denmark has taken.
But others believe the policies will estrange progressive voters and push the Labour Party too far to the right.
What are Denmark’s migration rules?
Denmark has adopted increasingly restrictive rules in order to deal with migration over the last few years.
In Denmark, most asylum or refugee statuses are temporary. Residency can be revoked once a country is deemed safe.
In order to achieve settlement, asylum seekers are required to be in full-time employment, and the length of time it takes to acquire those rights has been extended.
Denmark also has tougher rules on family reunification – both the sponsor and their partner are required to be at least 24 years old, which the Danish government says is designed to prevent forced marriages.
The sponsor must also not have claimed welfare for three years and must provide a financial guarantee for their partner. Both must also pass a Danish language test.
In 2018, Denmark introduced what it called a ghetto package, a controversial plan to radically alter some residential areas, including by demolishing social housing. Areas with over 1,000 residents were defined as ghettos if more than 50% were “immigrants and their descendants from non-Western countries”.
In 2021, the left of centre government passed a law that allowed refugees arriving on Danish soil to be moved to asylum centres in a partner country – and subsequently agreed with Rwanda to explore setting up a program, although that has been put on hold.
It comes as the government continues to struggle to get immigration under control, with rising numbers of small boat crossings in the Channel over the last few months and a migrant, deported under the UK’s returns deal with France, re-entering the country.
Some 648 people crossed the Channel to Britain in nine boats on Friday, according to Home Office figures, bringing the total for the year to 38,223.
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Have billions been ‘wasted’ on asylum hotels?
Ms Mahmood wants deterrents in place to stop migrants seeking to enter the country via unauthorised routes.
She also wants to make it easier to remove those who are found to have no right to stay in the UK.
Sources told the PA news agency she was eager to meet her Danish counterpart, Rasmus Stoklund, the country’s immigration minister, at the earliest possible convenience.
Image: Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Pic: PA
Speaking on BBC Radio 4, Mr Stoklund likened Danish society to “the hobbits in The Lord Of The Rings” and said people coming to the country who do not contribute positively would not be welcome.
Mr Stoklund said: “We are a small country. We live peacefully and quietly with each other. I guess you could compare us to the hobbits in The Lord Of The Rings.”
“We expect people who come here to participate and contribute positively, and if they don’t they aren’t welcome.”
The split in Labour was apparent from public comments by MPs today.
Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour MP Gareth Snell told Radio 4’s Today programme that any change bringing “fairness” to an asylum system that his constituents “don’t trust” was “worth exploring”.
But Nottingham East MP Nadia Whittome, who is a member of the party’s Socialist Campaign Group caucus, said: “I think these are policies of the far right. I don’t think anyone wants to see a Labour government flirting with them.”
It started with a strong espresso in a simple cafe on a side street in north London.
Several Algerian men were inside, a few others were outside on the pavement, smoking.
I’d been told the wanted prisoner might be in Finsbury Park, so I ordered a coffee and asked if they’d seen him.
Image: Spotting a man resembling the suspect, Tom and camera operator Josh Masters gave chase
They were happy to tell me that some of them knew Brahim Kaddour-Cherif – the 24-year-old offender who was on the run.
One of the customers revealed to me that he’d actually seen him the night before.
“He wants to hand himself to police,” the friend said candidly.
This was the beginning of the end of a high-profile manhunt.
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The Algerian convicted sex offender had been at large since 29 October, after he was mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth in south London.
Within an hour of meeting the friend in the cafe, he had followed myself and camera operator Josh Masters to a nearby street.
Image: Kaddour-Cherif was accidentally freed five days after the wrongful release of convicted sex offender Hadush Kebatu (pictured). They were both arrested separately in Finsbury Park. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA
We weren’t yet filming – he didn’t want any attention or fuss surrounding him.
“Follow me, he’s in the park,” the man told me.
“Follow – but not too close.”
We did.
I was in the same park a few weeks ago after fugitive Hadush Kebatu, the Ethiopian sex offender – also wrongly released from prison – was arrested in Finsbury Park.
It was odd to be back in the same spot in such similar circumstances.
As he led us through the park past joggers, young families and people playing tennis, the man headed for the gates near Finsbury Park station.
All of a sudden, two police officers ran past us.
The Met had received a tip-off from a member of the public.
It was frantic. Undercover officers, uniformed cops, screeching tyres and blaring sirens. We were in the middle of the manhunt.
As they scoured the streets at speed, we walked by some of the Algerian men I’d seen in the cafe.
Image: Kaddour-Cherif walked up to a nearby police van as Tom continued to question him
One man near the group was wearing green tracksuit bottoms, a beanie hat and had glasses on.
“It’s him, it’s him,” one of the other men said to me, gesturing towards him.
The man in the beanie then quickly turned on his heel and walked off.
“It’s him, it’s him,” another guy agreed.
The suspect was walking off while the police were still searching the nearby streets.
Josh and I caught up with him and I asked directly: “Are you Brahim?”
You may have watched the exchange in the Sky News video – he was in denial, evasive and pretended the suspect had pedalled off on a Lime bike.
I can only guess he knew the game was up, but for whatever reason, he was keeping up the lie.
Image: Police moved in to handcuff him and used their phones to check an image of the wanted man from one of Sky News’ online platforms
Image: Once his identity was confirmed, Kaddour-Cherif was put into the back of the police van
Moments later, one of the bystanders told me “it is him” – with added urgency.
Only the prisoner knows why he then walked up to the nearby police van – officers quickly moved to handcuff him and tell him why he was being arrested.
Over the next 10 minutes, he became agitated. His story changed as I repeatedly asked if he had been the man inside HMP Wandsworth.
Officers needed confirmation too – one quickly pulled out a smartphone and checked an image of the wanted man from one of Sky News’ online platforms.
Nadjib had been on the lookout for the convicted sex offender, who had been spending time in different parts of north London since his release from HMP Wandsworth.
He even had a folded-up newspaper clipping in his pocket so that he could check the picture himself.
He told Sky News he was “very happy when he got arrested”.
“I don’t like the sex offenders,” he said.
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“I know him from the community. He has been around here every night since he was released from prison.”
Image: Nadjib (L) told Sky’s Tom Parmenter he had been looking out for the offender
Not only did he tip the police off about the prisoner’s whereabouts, but he also witnessed the other high-profile manhunt that ended in the same park last month.
Ethiopian asylum seeker Hadush Kebatu was also arrested in Finsbury Park after a 48-hour manhunt in the capital. He was then deported to Ethiopia.
Image: Brahim Kaddour-Cherif
“When he [Kebatu] got arrested in the park I was there,” Nadjib said.
I asked him why both men ended up in the same park in north London.
“Because the community, he came here for the community of Algerians,” he said.
Several Algerian people that I spoke to on Friday told me how shameful they thought it was that this sex offender was still on the run.