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House prices fell by 5.3% in the year to August – a bigger-than-expected drop, according to Nationwide.

This means the typical home is now worth £14,600 less than 12 months ago – with an average property price of £259,153.

Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, says the softening is “not surprising” – with interest rate hikes by the Bank of England sending mortgage payments higher.

Activity in the housing market is currently running well below pre-pandemic levels – with mortgage approvals about 20% below the 2019 average in recent months.

But Mr Gardner struck an upbeat note after Nationwide’s latest House Price Index was released – and said “a relatively soft landing is still achievable.”

He added: “In particular, unemployment is expected to remain low (below 5%) and the vast majority of existing borrowers should be able to weather the impact of higher borrowing costs, given the high proportion on fixed rates, and where affordability testing should ensure that those needing to refinance can afford the higher payments.”

And while activity may remain subdued in the near term, Mr Gardner believes a mix of income growth and lower house prices could improve affordability if mortgage rates cool.

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Andrew Wishart, senior property economist at Capital Economics, believes this “marks the start of a significant further drop in house prices”.

He believes that, by mid-2024, house prices will be 10.5% below their August 2022 peak – with mortgage rates set to remain between 5.5% and 6% for the next 12 months.

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Paul Kelso - Health correspondent

Paul Kelso

Business correspondent

@pkelso

The UK housing market has long lost touch with reality – but the recent modest fall in prices, confirmed by the Nationwide house price index figures for August, does follow the logic of economic trends.

After 14 consecutive Bank of England increases pushed the base rate to 5.25% and many mortgages beyond 6%, it would have been a surprise had the housing market not been affected.

While prices have been falling the volume of completions has stalled too, reflecting perhaps that many potential movers are waiting to see where rates will peak before they take the plunge.

For those looking to sell or buy from an existing home the impact will be largely theoretical, with the cost of remortgaging and the swingeing impact of stamp duty far more consequential in decision making.

A drop of more than 5% will be most welcome to first-time buyers, but the benefit will likely be wiped out by the increased cost of the mortgage required to get on the ladder in the first place.

For millions, prices cannot fall far enough to make that first step realistic, the hike in borrowing costs compounding an affordability crisis that has seen the average house price balloon to eight times the average wage in two decades.

According to Nationwide, there was a 25% drop in first-time buyers in the first half of 2023 when compared with 2019.

“A first-time buyer earning the average wage and buying a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would now see their monthly mortgage payment absorb over 40% of their take-home pay (with a mortgage rate of 6%) – well above the long run average of 29%,” Mr Gardner added.

There has also been a shift in the types of properties being purchased – with a big decline in demand for detached houses as buyers look for smaller, less expensive places.

Additional housing bills are piling more misery on families at a time when the main measure of inflation is easing back from the highs of last winter, when unprecedented energy costs hit Western economies.

The evolving cost of living crisis has squeezed affordability and demand at estate agents – and the Bank wants a wider economic slowdown to help cool the pace of price rises.

Data released by the Bank earlier this week showed that mortgage approvals had dropped by almost 10% last month.

Separate figures from property website Zoopla suggested that the UK was on track for about one million house and flat sales by the end of this year – the lowest level since 2012.

Average rates for two and five-year fixed residential mortgages remain above 6%.

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Renters now in the majority in UK

Higher funding costs for lenders are down to expectations the Bank of England still has some way to go in its battle against inflation.

Financial markets currently expect the Bank’s rate to peak just shy of 6% early next year – from its current level of 5.25%.

Nationwide, like other mortgage lenders in the shifting rate environment, revealed on Thursday that it was reducing some fixed and tracker products by up to 0.15 percentage points from today.

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UK-India trade deal: Is Farage right to call out ‘big tax exemption’?

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UK-India trade deal: Is Farage right to call out 'big tax exemption'?

Britain’s trade deal with India has created a pocket of controversy on taxation.

Under the agreement, Indian workers who have been seconded to Britain temporarily will not have to pay National Insurance (NI) contributions in the UK. Instead, they will continue to pay the Indian exchequer.

The same applies to British workers in India. It avoids workers from being taxed twice for a full suite of benefits they will not receive, such as the state pension.

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Politicians of all stripes have leapt to judgement.

Nigel Farage has described it as a “big tax exemption” for Indian workers. He said it was “impossible to say how many will come,” with the Reform Party warning of “more mass immigration, more pressure on the NHS, more pressure on housing.”

But, is this deal really undercutting British workers or is it simply creating a level playing field?

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Be wary of any hasty conclusions. In the absence of an impact assessment from the government, it is difficult to be precise about any of this. However, at first glance, it is unlikely that some of Reform’s worst fears will play out.

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Firstly, avoiding double taxation is not the same thing as a “tax break.’ This type of agreement, known as a double contribution convention, is not new.

Britain has similar arrangements with other countries and blocs, including the US, EU, Canada and Japan.

It’s based on the principle that workers shouldn’t be paying twice for social security taxes that they will not benefit from.

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Indian workers and businesses will still have to pay the equivalent tax in India, as well as sponsorship fees and the NHS surcharge.

Crucially, the deal only applies to workers being sent over by Indian companies on a temporary basis.

Those workers are on Indian payroll. It does not apply to Indian workers more generally. That means businesses in the UK can’t (and won’t) suddenly be replacing all their workers with Indians.

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The conditions for a company to send over a secondee on a work visa are restrictive. It means it’s unlikely that these workers will be replacing British workers.

However, It does mean that the exchequer will not capture the extra national insurance tax from those who come over on this route.

The government has not shared its impact assessment for how many extra Indians they expect to come over on this route, how much NI they will escape, or how much this will be offset by extra income tax from those Indians. The net financial position is therefore murky.

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New WH Smith owner Modella seeks to add Poundland to retail empire

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New WH Smith owner Modella seeks to add Poundland to retail empire

The little-known investor cutting a swathe through the British high street has made it onto a shortlist of bidders vying to buy Poundland, the struggling discounter.

Sky News has learnt that Modella is among a handful of bidders notified in recent days that they have made it through to a second stage of the auction of Poundland.

Its progress in the sale process raises the prospect of Modella taking ownership of its fourth major British retailer in less than nine months.

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The investment firm already owns Hobbycraft and The Original Factory Shop, where it has in recent weeks launched company voluntary arrangements – court-sanctioned restructuring deals which allow it to close loss-making stores and slash rent payments.

Modella has also agreed to buy WH Smith’s historic high street chain and rebrand it under the name TG Jones.

That deal has yet to close, and Sky News reported at the weekend that Modella will effectively be prohibited from launching a CVA there for at least a year under the terms of its deal with WH Smith.

Among the other suitors for Poundland are Endless, the turnaround investor, and Hilco Capital, the new owner of Lakeland.

Poundland has been put up for sale by Pepco Group, its Warsaw-listed owner, amid mounting losses and a struggle to turn the company around.

Pepco confirmed in March that it planned to explore a sale of the business, with Teneo hired to advise on an auction.

Last year, Poundland, which employs about 18,000 people, recorded roughly €2bn of sales.

Earlier this year, Pepco, which also trades as Pepco and Dealz in Europe, said Poundland had seen a like-for-like sales slump of 7.3% during the Christmas trading period.

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In an accompanying trading statement, Pepco said that Poundland had suffered “a more difficult sales environment and consumer backdrop in the UK, alongside margin pressure and an increasingly higher operating cost environment”.

Recent tax hikes announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in last autumn’s Budget have also increased the financial pressure on high street retailers.

Modella declined to comment on its interest in Poundland.

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Trade war: China moves to ease tariff pain ahead of US peace talks

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Trade war: China moves to ease tariff pain ahead of US peace talks

China has revealed a series of measures designed to help its economy navigate the effects of the escalating trade war with the United States, hours after exploratory peace talks were announced.

Senior officials from both sides are to meet in Switzerland this weekend for what are understood to be the first face-to-face meeting between the world’s two largest economies in months.

The Trump administration has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145% while Beijing has responded with levies of 125% in recent weeks.

The effects are starting to be felt in both countries in respect of price, supply and business sentiment.

China’s export-dominated economy is showing strain in terms of factory order books while official figures recently revealed that the US economy contracted between January and March.

US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese vice premier He Lifeng will lead their respective delegations.

President Trump had previously suggested that any talks would look to lower tariffs but China has demanded the US moves first.

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A Commerce Ministry spokesperson said: “The Chinese side carefully evaluated the information from the US side and decided to agree to have contact with the US side after fully considering global expectations, Chinese interests and calls from US businesses and consumers.”

Commentators said it was impossible to know what could be achieved at the talks in Geneva but cautioned that any meaningful truce would take months to fully iron out.

Official Chinese economic data is yet to show the extent of the harm the trade war is causing but a coordinated stimulus effort was revealed by the authorities on Wednesday.

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Officials from the country’s central bank outlined plans to cut interest rates and reduce bank reserve requirements to help free up more funding for lending.

It will be hoped that bolstering activity in the economy will help lift prices generally as the country battles deflation.

Other help included government funding for factory upgrades.

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