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House prices fell by 5.3% in the year to August – a bigger-than-expected drop, according to Nationwide.

This means the typical home is now worth £14,600 less than 12 months ago – with an average property price of £259,153.

Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, says the softening is “not surprising” – with interest rate hikes by the Bank of England sending mortgage payments higher.

Activity in the housing market is currently running well below pre-pandemic levels – with mortgage approvals about 20% below the 2019 average in recent months.

But Mr Gardner struck an upbeat note after Nationwide’s latest House Price Index was released – and said “a relatively soft landing is still achievable.”

He added: “In particular, unemployment is expected to remain low (below 5%) and the vast majority of existing borrowers should be able to weather the impact of higher borrowing costs, given the high proportion on fixed rates, and where affordability testing should ensure that those needing to refinance can afford the higher payments.”

And while activity may remain subdued in the near term, Mr Gardner believes a mix of income growth and lower house prices could improve affordability if mortgage rates cool.

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Andrew Wishart, senior property economist at Capital Economics, believes this “marks the start of a significant further drop in house prices”.

He believes that, by mid-2024, house prices will be 10.5% below their August 2022 peak – with mortgage rates set to remain between 5.5% and 6% for the next 12 months.

Analysis: For many, house prices can’t fall far enough


Paul Kelso - Health correspondent

Paul Kelso

Business correspondent

@pkelso

The UK housing market has long lost touch with reality – but the recent modest fall in prices, confirmed by the Nationwide house price index figures for August, does follow the logic of economic trends.

After 14 consecutive Bank of England increases pushed the base rate to 5.25% and many mortgages beyond 6%, it would have been a surprise had the housing market not been affected.

While prices have been falling the volume of completions has stalled too, reflecting perhaps that many potential movers are waiting to see where rates will peak before they take the plunge.

For those looking to sell or buy from an existing home the impact will be largely theoretical, with the cost of remortgaging and the swingeing impact of stamp duty far more consequential in decision making.

A drop of more than 5% will be most welcome to first-time buyers, but the benefit will likely be wiped out by the increased cost of the mortgage required to get on the ladder in the first place.

For millions, prices cannot fall far enough to make that first step realistic, the hike in borrowing costs compounding an affordability crisis that has seen the average house price balloon to eight times the average wage in two decades.

According to Nationwide, there was a 25% drop in first-time buyers in the first half of 2023 when compared with 2019.

“A first-time buyer earning the average wage and buying a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would now see their monthly mortgage payment absorb over 40% of their take-home pay (with a mortgage rate of 6%) – well above the long run average of 29%,” Mr Gardner added.

There has also been a shift in the types of properties being purchased – with a big decline in demand for detached houses as buyers look for smaller, less expensive places.

Additional housing bills are piling more misery on families at a time when the main measure of inflation is easing back from the highs of last winter, when unprecedented energy costs hit Western economies.

The evolving cost of living crisis has squeezed affordability and demand at estate agents – and the Bank wants a wider economic slowdown to help cool the pace of price rises.

Data released by the Bank earlier this week showed that mortgage approvals had dropped by almost 10% last month.

Separate figures from property website Zoopla suggested that the UK was on track for about one million house and flat sales by the end of this year – the lowest level since 2012.

Average rates for two and five-year fixed residential mortgages remain above 6%.

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Renters now in the majority in UK

Higher funding costs for lenders are down to expectations the Bank of England still has some way to go in its battle against inflation.

Financial markets currently expect the Bank’s rate to peak just shy of 6% early next year – from its current level of 5.25%.

Nationwide, like other mortgage lenders in the shifting rate environment, revealed on Thursday that it was reducing some fixed and tracker products by up to 0.15 percentage points from today.

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Tesla approves $29bn share award to Elon Musk

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Tesla approves bn share award to Elon Musk

Tesla’s board has signed off a $29bn (£21.8bn) share award to Elon Musk after a court blocked an earlier package worth almost double that sum.

The new award, which amounts to 96 million new shares, is not just about keeping the electric vehicle (EV) firm’s founder in the driving seat as chief executive.

The new stock will also bolster his voting power from a current level of 13%.

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He and other shareholders have long argued that boosting his interest in the company is key to maintaining his focus after a foray into the trappings of political power at Donald Trump‘s side – a relationship that has now turned sour.

Musk is angry at the president’s tax cut and spending plans, known as the big beautiful bill. Tesla has also suffered a sales backlash as a result of Musk’s past association with Mr Trump and role in cutting federal government spending.

Tesla Inc CEO Elon Musk onstage during an event for Tesla in Shanghai, China. Pic: Reuters
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Tesla’s Elon Musk is seen on stage during an event in Shanghai Pic: Reuters

The company is currently focused on the roll out of a new cheaper model in a bid to boost flagging sales and challenge steep competition, particularly from China.

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The headwinds have been made stronger as the Trump administration has cut support for EVs, with Musk admitting last month that it could lead to a “few rough quarters” for the company.

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Tesla is currently running trials of its self-driving software and revenues are not set to reflect the anticipated rollout until late next year.

Musk had been in line for a share award worth over $50bn back in 2018 – the biggest compensation package ever seen globally.

But the board’s decision was voided by a judge in Delaware following a protracted legal fight. There is still a continuing appeal process.

Earlier this year, Tesla said its board had formed a special committee to consider some compensation matters involving Musk, without disclosing details.

The special committee said in the filing on Monday: “While we recognize Elon’s business ventures, interests and other potential demands on his time and attention are extensive and wide-ranging… we are confident that this award will incentivize Elon to remain at Tesla”.

It added that if the Delaware courts fully reinstate the 2018 “performance award”, the new interim grant would either be forfeited or offset to ensure no “double dip”.

The new compensation package is subject to shareholder approval.

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Motor finance operators can breathe big sigh of relief

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Motor finance operators can breathe big sigh of relief

Bank stocks have enjoyed a boost as traders digest the Supreme Court’s ruling on the car finance scandal.

Some of the country’s most exposed lenders, including Lloyds and Close Brothers, saw their share prices jump by 7.55% and 21.62% respectively.

It came after the court delivered a reprieve from a possible £44bn compensation bill.

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Banks will still most likely have to fork out over discretionary commissions – a type of commission for dealers that was linked to how high an interest rate they could get from customers.

The FCA, which banned the practice in 2021, is currently consulting on a redress scheme but the final bill is unlikely to exceed £18bn. Overall, the result has been better than expected for the banks.

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Car finance ruling explained

Lloyds, which owns the country’s largest car finance provider Black Horse, had set aside £1.2bn to cover compensation payouts.

Following the judgment, the bank said it “currently believes that if there is any change to the provision, it is unlikely to be material in the context of the group”.

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‘Don’t use a claims management firm’

The judgment released some of the anxiety that has been weighing over the Bank’s share price.

Jonathan Pierce, banking analyst at Jefferies, said the FCA’s prediction was “consistent with our estimates, and most importantly, we think it largely de-risks Lloyds’ shares from the ‘motor issue'”.

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Bank stocks have responded robustly to each twist and turn in this tale, sinking after the Court of Appeal turned against them and jumping (as much as 8% in the case of Close Brothers) when the Supreme Court allowed the appeal hearing.

Concerns about this volatility motivated the Supreme Court to deliver its judgment late in the afternoon so that traders would have time to absorb the news.

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FCA considering compensation scheme over car finance scandal – raising hopes of payouts for motorists

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FCA considering compensation scheme over car finance scandal - raising hopes of payouts for motorists

Thousands of motorists who bought cars on finance before 2021 could be set for payouts as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has said it will consult on a compensation scheme.

In a statement released on Sunday, the FCA said its review of the past use of motor finance “has shown that many firms were not complying with the law or our disclosure rules that were in force when they sold loans to consumers”.

“Where consumers have lost out, they should be appropriately compensated in an orderly, consistent and efficient way,” the statement continued.

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The FCA said it estimates the cost of any scheme, including compensation and administrative costs, to be no lower than £9bn – adding that a total cost of £13.5bn is “more plausible”.

It is unclear how many people could be eligible for a pay-out. The authority estimates most individuals will probably receive less than £950 in compensation.

The consultation will be published by early October and any scheme will be finalised in time for people to start receiving compensation next year.

What motorists should do next

The FCA says you may be affected if you bought a car under a finance scheme, including hire purchase agreements, before 28 January 2021.

Anyone who has already complained does not need to do anything.

The authority added: “Consumers concerned that they were not told about commission, and who think they may have paid too much for the finance, should complain now.”

Its website advises drivers to complain to their finance provider first.

If you’re unhappy with the response, you can then contact the Financial Ombudsman.

The FCA has said any compensation scheme will be easy to participate in, without drivers needing to use a claims management company or law firm.

It has warned motorists that doing so could end up costing you 30% of any compensation in fees.

The announcement comes after the Supreme Court ruled on a separate, but similar, case on Friday.

The court overturned a ruling that would have meant millions of motorists could have been due compensation over “secret” commission payments made to car dealers as part of finance arrangements.

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Car finance scandal explained

The FCA’s case concerns discretionary commission arrangements (DCAs) – a practice banned in 2021.

Under these arrangements, brokers and dealers increased the amount of interest they earned without telling buyers and received more commission for it. This is said to have then incentivised sellers to maximise interest rates.

In light of the Supreme Court’s judgment, any compensation scheme could also cover non-discretionary commission arrangements, the FCA has said. These arrangements are ones where the buyer’s interest rate did not impact the dealer’s commission.

This is because part of the court’s ruling “makes clear that non-disclosure of other facts relating to the commission can make the relationship [between a salesperson and buyer] unfair,” it said.

It was previously estimated that about 40% of car finance deals included DCAs while 99% involved a commission payment to a broker.

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Nikhil Rathi, chief executive of the FCA, said: “It is clear that some firms have broken the law and our rules. It’s fair for their customers to be compensated.

“We also want to ensure that the market, relied on by millions each year, can continue to work well and consumers can get a fair deal.”

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