Bitcoin investors may be in for a rollercoaster ride. While history shows September is typically a bumpy month for Bitcoin, two ETF analysts have suggested investors turn their gaze to mid-October as the next “major days to watch.”
According to historical data, Bitcoin’s monthly returns have closed in the red at the end of September nine times over the course of the last 13 years.
Popular crypto analyst Will Clemente informed his 689,000 X followers that September has had the “least number of positive-returning months” and is on a six-year negative-returning streak.
Bitcoin’s returns broken down by months
September has had the least number of positive-returning months at just two and is on a 6-year negative-returning streak. pic.twitter.com/4VqZkMubm3
There are a number of other factors that point to a bumpy road ahead in September as well, with monitoring resource Material Indicators warning that a “full retrace” of gains made the wake of Grayscale’s victory over the SEC was a likely course of action for the largest cryptocurrency moving forward.
TLDR: Trend Precognition signals ⬇️ on the D chart Prepare to round trip the range BTC >$27,760 invalidates the signal BTC #Bearadise
Looking ahead, however, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has urged investors to look to mid-October, which is the second decision deadline for the SEC for seven pending spot Bitcoin ETFs — specifically ones from BlackRock, Bitwise, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, VanEck, iShares and Invesco.
NEXT DATES TO WATCH:
Middle of October are the next major days to watch. Namely October 16th. (& @GlobalXETFs‘ Oct 7)
Also, reminder that we fully expected delays on this round of spot #Bitcoin ETF filings. Would have been a shock if they were approved this week. pic.twitter.com/i14fg8FWun
On Aug. 30, Seyffart and fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pinned the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the end of this year at 75%. The mid-October dates would be the last deadline for the SEC, at least in 2023.
Additionally, Seyffart noted that delays on the most recent round of spot Bitcoin ETF filings were widely expected and that he would’ve been shocked if they were approved in the first round of deadlines this past week.
After surging briefly on the Grayscale news, the price of Bitcoin has since fallen 4.5% over 24 hours and, at time of writing, was changing hands for $26,066, according to data from CoinGecko.
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Kemi Badenoch is to launch a review into whether the UK should leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – and set out plans to revive a Rwanda-style deportation scheme.
In a speech on Friday, the Conservative leader will announce a commission into how lawyers could be prevented from using international legislation to block government decisions on immigration.
She will also announce plans to prevent people who arrive by small boat from claiming asylum and deport them to a third country.
It is unclear if this would be Rwanda or another location.
One of Labour’s first acts in government was to scrap the Tories’ Rwanda scheme, which would have deported illegal immigrations to the African nation for them to claim asylum there.
The plan was held up by a series of legal challenges and ultimately failed to get off the ground before the election, despite around £700m being spent on it, according to the Home Office.
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The saga sparked a debate within the Tory party about whether the UK would need to leave the ECHR, which was established after the Second World War and sets out the rights and freedoms of people in the 46 countries signed up to it.
During the Conservative leadership race, Ms Badenochsaid leaving the ECHR wasn’t a “silver bullet” and “not even the most radical thing that we probably will have to do” to control immigration.
It put her at odds with her rival Robert Jenrick, now the shadow justice secretary, who claimed the Tories would “die” if they did not back exiting the ECHR.
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‘Britain has lost control of its borders’
Ms Badenoch’s commission will be chaired by Tory peer and former justice minister Lord Wolfson of Tredegar, the shadow attorney general.
A Conservative Party aide close to the detail said: “Kemi has worked hard to bring the shadow cabinet together on this very difficult issue.
“She has always said she will take her time to build a proper, workable plan to tackle the issue of the courts subverting parliamentary democracy. This commission, led by the brilliant lawyer Lord Wolfson, will make sure we’re ready to take the tough decisions.”
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who has enjoyed a meteoric rise in the polls since the general election, has also said he would leave the ECHR.
Image: Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda plan failed to get off the ground
Labour’s policy is to remain in it, but to bring forward legislation to “ensure it is the government and parliament that decides who should have the right to remain in the UK”.
According to the immigration white paper unveiled last month, this would address cases where Article 8 right to family life legal arguments have been used to frustrate deportation, often in the case of foreign criminals.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told the Home Affairs Select Committee on Tuesday that family migration has become “so complex” that courts are applying “exceptional” human rights guarantees to about a third of cases.
She said: “The proportion of decisions being taken as exceptional – often under interpretations around Article 8 – end up being about 30 percent of the cases. That is not exceptional, that is a much broader proportion.”
However, she rejected calls to disapply the ECHR, saying compliance with international law has helped the government strike deals with France and Germany to help crack down on criminal gangs.
She said the government will draw up a “clear framework” that will be “much easier for the courts to interpret and will reflect what the public want to see”.