Robotics giant ABB ‘pretty pessimistic’ on China: ‘It will be challenging for the rest of the year’
The CEO of Swedish-Swiss multinational robotics firm ABB said he has been “disappointed” by the state of the Chinese market, adding he expects conditions will prove challenging for the rest of the year.
“China is not really developing as we hoped in the beginning of the year,” said Bjorn Rosengren, CEO and chairman of ABB, speaking with CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche on Wednesday, adding ABB has been impacted by a “softening” in China’s property sector.
Rosengren said that a decline in Chinese real estate development and hefty debts faced by the sector have meant pain for its residential construction segment, which is more cyclical and therefore prone to changes in the economy.
“We are pretty pessimistic at the moment” on China, said Rosengren. “We thought in the beginning of the year that we should see some recovery from the Covid period, but I think everybody has been pretty disappointed.”
“China continues to be pretty soft. It’s a big market though, so it’s not dead. It’s still living there, but not really developing as we’d hoped. I think it will be challenging for the rest of the year.”
ABB is one of the largest companies globally operating in the realm of industrial manufacturing. With its machines embedded in so many major global companies’ factories, the company’s performance serves as something of a barometer for the health of the manufacturing sector — and the broader economy.
Notably, China, a powerhouse of manufacturing often referred to as “the world’s factory” due to the country’s influence on global trade, is the company’s second-biggest market.
ABB says it’s the leading robotics player in the Chinese market, accounting for more than 90% of sales from locally-made products, solutions and services there.
But it has been showing signs of weakness.
In the second quarter of 2023, ABB reported a 2% increase in orders on a comparable basis, to $8.7 billion. Comparable revenues were up 17%, to $8.2 billion. Income from operations, meanwhile, climbed 15.9%, to $1.3 billion. However, in China, the firm saw its order intake decline 9% on a comparable basis in the period.
More than 50 Chinese property developers have defaulted or failed to make payments in the last three years, according to credit ratings agency Standard and Poor’s.
In July, Fitch Ratings pulled its credit ratings for Central China Real Estate Limited, a Hong Kong-based investment holding company primarily engaged in property businesses.
More recently, economists have flagged concerns with structural issues in China’s economy, such as debt, an aging population and young people unable to find work, and a growing fear of a “decoupling” from the rest of the world as tensions with the United States reach boiling point.
The Chinese real estate sector has been in a state of turmoil over the last two years, most notably marked by the financial woes of heavily indebted property developer Evergrande, which earlier this month filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection.
On Monday, Evergrande’s shares lost as much as 87% of their value after the company resumed trading for the first time since March 21, 2022. The shares have struggled to recover since.
A silver lining?
Rosengren said that, despite the weakness it is seeing in China, electric mobility is proving a fast-growing area for the company globally — especially in China.
“One of the positive things is EV vehicles, which also are getting a position globally as you’ve seen also in Europe today, Chinese cars from that perspective,” said Rosengren.
“I think that’s one of the sectors which has been good, which had some positive for the robotics market. But I think actually the real estate construction part which is low and has been low for quite some time.”
ABB is currently planning an initial public offering for the e-mobility business, which in raised 325 million Swiss francs ($370.6 million) from investors in a pre-IPO placement.
Rosengren said that most businesses and governments are “aligned” on the need to push toward a green energy future, so the ceiling for growth remains high.
In Europe, especially, greater impetus has been placed on the need to accelerate the energy transition due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resulting restrictions of natural gas supplies to the continent.
“Energy generation is of course one of the sectors that needs to go green,” Rosengren said.
“You also need to build up infrastructure, electrification infrastructure globally. And I think that is what we are feeling today and that’s what we are seeing and that’s why we see still very strong market in electrification and that’s why that is important.”
ABB has an e-mobility division responsible for developing electric charging solutions, which are the backbone of the EV industry.
Still, this part of the business has proven challenging as macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated.
In the second quarter, ABB’s e-mobility unit lost $67 million, which the company attributed to “inventory related provisions as well as technology investments triggered by a shift back to a more focused product strategy to secure a continued leading market position.”
Thanks to Trump’s repeated executive order attacks on US clean energy policy, nearly $8 billion in investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025.
The $7.9 billion in investments withdrawn since January are more than three times the total investments cancelled over the previous 30 months, according to nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update.
However, companies continue to invest in the US renewable sector. Businesses in March announced 10 projects worth more than $1.6 billion for new solar, EV, and grid and transmission equipment factories across six states. That includes Tesla’s plan to invest $200 million in a battery factory near Houston that’s expected to create at least 1,500 new jobs. Combined, the projects are expected to create at least 5,000 new permanent jobs if completed.
Michael Timberlake of E2 said, “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll. If this self-inflicted and unnecessary market uncertainty continues, we’ll almost certainly see more projects paused, more construction halted, and more job opportunities disappear.”
March’s 10 new projects bring the overall number of major clean energy projects tracked by E2 to 390 across 42 states and Puerto Rico. Companies have said they plan to invest more than $133 billion in these projects and hire 122,000 permanent workers.
Since Congress passed federal clean energy tax credits in August 2022, 34 clean energy projects have been cancelled, downsized, or shut down altogether, wiping out more than 15,000 jobs and scrapping $10 billion in planned investment, according to E2 and Atlas Public Policy.
However, in just the first three months of 2025, after Trump started rolling back clean energy policies, 13 projects were scrapped or scaled back, totaling more than $5 billion. That includes Bosch pulling the plug on its $200 million hydrogen fuel cell plant in South Carolina and Freyr Battery canceling its $2.5 billion battery factory in Georgia.
Republican-led districts have reaped the biggest rewards from Biden’s clean energy tax credits, but they’re also taking the biggest hits under Trump. So far, more than $6 billion in projects and over 10,000 jobs have been wiped out in GOP districts alone.
And the stakes are high. Through March, Republican districts have claimed 62% of all clean energy project announcements, 71% of the jobs, and a staggering 83% of the total investment.
A full map and list of announcements can be seen on E2’s website here. E2 says it will incorporate cancellation data in the coming weeks.
Read more: FREYR kills plans to build a $2.6 billion battery factory in Georgia
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Tesla has reportedly delayed the launch of its new “affordable EV,” which is believed to be a stripped-down Model Y, in the United States.
Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a pivotal decision that altered the automaker’s direction for the next few years.
The CEO canceled Tesla’s plan to build a cheaper new “$25,000 vehicle” on its next-generation “unboxed” vehicle platform to focus solely on the Robotaxi, utilizing the latest technology, and instead, Tesla plans to build more affordable EVs, though more expensive than previously announced, on its existing Model Y platform.
Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years, and because of that, he believes that a $25,000 EV wouldn’t make sense, as self-driving ride-hailing fleets would take over the lower end of the car market.
However, he has been consistently wrong about Tesla solving self-driving, which he first said would happen in 2019.
In the meantime, Tesla’s sales have been decreasing and the automaker had to throttle down production at all its manufacturing facilities.
That’s why, instead of building new, more affordable EVs on new production lines, Musk decided to greenlight new vehicles built on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y – increasing the utilization rate of its existing manufacturing lines.
Those vehicles have been described as “stripped-down Model Ys” with fewer features and cheaper materials, which Tesla said would launch in “the first half of 2025.”
Reuters is now reporting that Tesla is seeing a delay of “at least months” in launching the first new “lower-cost Model Y” in the US:
Tesla has promised affordable vehicles beginning in the first half of the year, offering a potential boost to flagging sales. Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States, the sources said, but it would be at least months later than Tesla’s public plan, they added, offering a range of revised targets from the third quarter to early next year.
Along with the delay, the report also claims that Tesla aims to produce 250,000 units of the new model in the US by 2026. This would match Tesla’s currently reduced production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Fremont factory.
The report follows other recent reports coming from China that also claimed Tesla’s new “affordable EVs” are “stripped-down Model Ys.”
The Chinese report references the new version of the Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year. It’s a regular Model 3, but Tesla removed some features, like the second-row screen, ambient lighting strip, and it uses fabric interior material rather than Tesla’s usual vegan leather.
The new Reuters report also said that Tesla planned to follow the stripped-down Model Y with a similar Model 3.
In China, the new vehicle was expected to come in the second half of 2025, and Tesla was waiting to see the impact of the updated Model Y, which launched earlier this year.
Electrek’s Take
These reports lend weight to what we have been saying for a year now: Tesla’s “more affordable EVs” will essentially be stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3.
While they will enable Tesla to utilize its currently underutilized factories more efficiently, they will also cannibalize its existing Model 3 and Y lineup and significantly reduce its already dwindling gross margins.
I think Musk will sell the move as being good in the long term because it will allow Tesla to deploy more vehicles, which will later generate more revenue through the purchase of the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package.
However, that has been his argument for years, and it has yet to pan out as FSD still requires driver supervision and likely will for years to come, resulting in an extremely low take-rate for the $8,000 package.
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Environment
Podcast: how Elon killed Tesla Model 2, global EV sales surge, and Chinese EVs keep killing it
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss how Elon Musk killed Tesla Model 2, global EV sales surging, how Chinese EVs keep killing it, and more.
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