Connect with us

Published

on

Comparing the UK economy with its pre-pandemic size has become an almost totemic way of highlighting its sluggish performance post-COVID.

It has certainly been a gift for Opposition politicians and in particular when – in September last year – the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produced evidence that the UK was the only economy in the G7 group that remained smaller than it was in February 2020.

However, today brought news that the UK economy actually fared better in the post-COVID period than previously thought.

The ONS unveiled a series of revisions for past GDP growth – affecting both 2020 and 2021.

It said that the UK economy contracted by 10.4% in the main pandemic year of 2020 – less worse than the 11% contraction previously reported.

And it said UK GDP grew by 8.7% in 2021 – considerably better than the previously reported growth of 7.6%.

Put together, it means that at the end of 2021 – rather than being 1.2% smaller than it was going into the pandemic as previously reported – the UK economy was actually 0.6% bigger.

More from Business

Some will say that this is all just rear-view mirror stuff and does not really matter.

But it does.

Even in its most recent estimates for quarterly growth, the ONS was suggesting that, during the three months to the end of June, the UK economy remained 0.2% smaller than it was during the final three months of 2019, the last full quarter before the pandemic struck.

Carry these revisions across to the latest data though, and it means that, rather than being at the bottom of the G7, the UK’s economic recovery post-pandemic was well ahead of Germany and not far behind those achieved by France and Italy.

The Treasury was also quick to point out that, as of the end of 2021, the UK’s recovery trailed only those of the US and Canada in the G7.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “The fact that the UK recovered from the pandemic much faster than thought shows that once again those determined to talk down the British economy have been proved wrong.

“There are many battles still to win, most of all against inflation so we can ease cost of living pressures on families. But if we stick to the plan we can look forward to healthy growth which according to the IMF will be faster than Germany, France, and Italy in the long term.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Economy more ‘resilient’ than expected

The ONS explained the rather dramatic upward revision thus: “These revisions are mainly because we have richer data from our annual surveys and administrative data, we are now able to measure costs incurred by businesses [intermediate consumption] directly and we can adjust for prices [deflation] at a far more detailed level.”

Part of the revision can be explained by the fact that the ONS now has a more detailed understanding of how much people were being paid in the 2021-22 financial year following the availability of more up-to-date information from HM Revenue & Customs. More up-to-date information on household spending during 2021, for example on telecoms services, has also been incorporated into the assessment of GDP.

Put together, these led to some pretty dramatic upgrades in parts of the services sector, which makes up four-fifths of UK GDP. The ONS now thinks the services sector as a whole grew by 10.9% in 2021, way ahead of the previous estimate of 7%, which is a pretty extraordinary upward revision.

The biggest contributors to that, according to the ONS, was from the wholesale and retail trade, and repairs to cars and motorcycles in particular.

Another contributor was accommodation and food services, which is now reckoned to have grown by 31.3% in 2021, up from the previous estimate of 30.9%.

Clearly the rush among Britons to eat out and stay in hotels after lockdowns ended was even bigger than previously thought.

Other sectors where activity was stronger than previously assumed were professional scientific and technical activities and healthcare services.

The commercial property sector, previously thought to have contracted during the year in question, is also now reckoned to have enjoyed growth.

These revisions are really important in terms of how we view the UK’s economic performance.

As Simon French, the chief economist and head of research at the investment bank Panmure Gordon was quick to note, the entire UK economic narrative, post-pandemic, has just been revised away. All those headlines about the UK economy not being back at pre-COVID levels, or bottom of the G7, are now obsolete.

He added: “But as a macro guy who has had to talk to international investors [about] why gilts and UK equities do or do not deserve [to trade at] a discount, this has cast huge doubt on recent investor conclusions.

“I may be biased but this deserves to lead every UK economic and business story today – to provide symmetry to the coverage that the sluggish post-pandemic recovery that has shaped investor/business/household sentiment.”

That is a key point.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Inflation: ‘We’re getting poorer’

There has been much hand-wringing in recent months about why international investors are shunning UK assets and why some UK companies have sought to switch their main stock market listing from London to New York.

Much of that negativity will have been informed by headlines about the UK’s lacklustre growth post-pandemic.

There is a word of caution, though. One is that the national statisticians of other countries are embarking on similar revisions to their GDP statistics using something called the “SUTS” – supply and use tables – framework. This approach is reckoned to provide a more accurate assessment of how a particular industry or sector has performed and, by extension, the economy as a whole. The statistics offices of the UK and the US are, at present, the only ones to have done this.

As the ONS pointed out today: “This means that the UK has one of the most up-to-date sets of estimates for this period of considerable economic change. Other countries follow different revision policies and practices, which can result in their estimates being revised at a later date.

“It is important this is considered when comparing the UK with other countries and our international comparison position is likely to change once other countries fully confront their datasets over time.”

And there is a broader point to make, too, which is that it is debatable whether GDP is that meaningful a measure, these days, of how the economy is doing and how all of us, as individuals, are living their lives.

As Savvas Savouri, economist at the hedge fund manager Toscafund and one of the Square Mile’s smartest economists, has told clients in the recent past: “GDP is a nonsensical measure of the modern UK economy… it fails to do justice to the ever-growing service-side of the UK economy.

“After all, measuring the production of textiles is very much easier to do than capturing the volume and value of coding for gaming, e-commerce and e-finance, architectural design, writing of legal contracts, insurance underwriting, academia to students from overseas and so forth.”

The ONS would doubtless argue, in response, that this is why it is seeking to finesse its methodology.

And, for now, it is helping paint a more encouraging picture of the UK economy.

Continue Reading

Business

Ex-Villa chief Purslow among contenders to chair football watchdog

Published

on

By

Ex-Villa chief Purslow among contenders to chair football watchdog

A former chief executive of Aston Villa and Liverpool is a surprise contender to become the inaugural chairman of the government’s controversial football watchdog.

Sky News can exclusively reveal that Christian Purslow, who left Villa Park in 2023, is on a three-person shortlist being considered by Whitehall officials to chair the Independent Football Regulator (IFR).

Mr Purslow, an outspoken character who has spent much of his career in sports finance, was this weekend said to be a serious candidate for the job despite having publicly warned about the regulator’s proposed remit and its potential impact on the Premier League.

A former commercial chief at Chelsea Football Club, Mr Purslow spent an eventful 16 months in charge at Anfield, spearheading the sale of Liverpool to its current owners following a bitter fight with former principals Tom Hicks and George Gillett.

He joined Aston Villa in 2018 when the club was in its third consecutive season in the Championship, seeing them promoted via the play-offs at the end of that campaign.

It was unclear this weekend how much of the football pyramid would respond to the appointment of a chairman at the regulator who has been so closely associated with top-flight clubs, given ongoing disagreement between the Premier League and English Football League (EFL) about the future distribution of finances.

One ally of Mr Purslow said, though, that his independence was not in doubt and that his experience of working outside the Premier League would also be valuable if he landed the IFR chairman role.

More from Money

Another senior football figure said Mr Purslow “would be welcomed by the football community as someone who has worked in football, and not as a civil servant or politician”.

In the past, Mr Purslow has both welcomed the prospect of further regulatory oversight of the sport, while also warning in a BBC interview in 2021, during his stint at Villa Park: “The Premier League has really always been the source of funding for the rest of football and the danger here is killing the golden goose, if we over-regulate a highly successful and commercial operation.

“I think we have to be very careful as we contemplate reform that it does not ultimately damage the game.

“We already have a hugely successful English football Premier League – the most successful in the world.”

Two years later, however, he told Sky News’ political editor, Beth Rigby: “I like the idea that the government wants to be involved in our national sport.

“These [clubs] are hugely important institutions in their communities, economically and socially – so it’s right that they [the government] are interested.”

The disclosure of Mr Purslow’s candidacy means that two of the three shortlisted contenders for what will rank among the most powerful jobs in English football have now been identified by Sky News.

On Friday, it emerged that Sanjay Bhandari, the chairman of Kick It Out, the football anti-racism charity, was also in the frame for the Manchester-based position, which will pay £130,000-a-year.

A decision is expected in the coming weeks, with the third candidate expected to be a woman given the shift in Whitehall to gender-diverse shortlists for public appointments.

The establishment of the regulator, which was originally conceived by the previous Conservative government in the wake of the furore over the failed European Super League project, has triggered deep unrest in the sport.

This week, Steve Parish, the influential chairman of Premier League side Crystal Palace, told a sports industry conference organised by the Financial Times that the watchdog “wants to interfere in all of the things we don’t need them to interfere in and help with none of the things we actually need help with”.

“We have a problem that we’re constantly being told that we’re not a business and [that] we’re part of the fabric of communities,” he is reported to have said.

“At the same time, we’re…being treated to the nth degree like a business.”

Interviews for the chair of the football regulator took place in November, with a previous recruitment process curtailed by the calling of last year’s general election.

Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, will sign off on the appointment of a preferred candidate, with the chosen individual expected to face a pre-appointment hearing in front of the Commons culture, media and sport select committee.

The Football Governance Bill is proceeding through parliament, with its next stage expected in March.

It forms part of a process that represents the most fundamental shake-up in the oversight of English football in the game’s history.

The establishment of the body comes with the top tier of the professional game wracked by civil war, with Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City at the centre of a number of legal cases over its financial dealings.

The government has dropped a previous stipulation that the regulator should have regard to British foreign and trade policy when determining the appropriateness of a new club owner.

The IFR will monitor clubs’ adherence to rules requiring them to listen to fans’ views on issues including ticket pricing, while it may also have oversight of the parachute payments made to clubs in the years after their relegation from the Premier League.

The top flight has issued a statement expressing reservations about the regulator’s remit, while the IFR has been broadly welcomed by the English Football League.

A Department for Culture, Media and Sport spokesman said: “We do not comment on speculation.

“No appointment has been made and the recruitment process for [IFR] chair is ongoing.”

Mr Purslow was abroad this weekend and did not respond to a request for comment.

Continue Reading

Business

Banks ‘investing heavily’ in digital platforms as payday glitch chaos strikes again

Published

on

By

Banks 'investing heavily' in digital platforms as payday glitch chaos strikes again

The banking sector is “investing heavily” in digital platforms, according to the body which represents the country’s lenders as many face a backlash over the latest payday glitch chaos to hit customers.

Millions were exposed on Friday to varying challenges from slow app or online banking performance to being blocked out of their accounts altogether.

Users said the brands caught up in the issues – which did not appear to be the result of a single problem – included Lloyds, Halifax, Nationwide, TSB, Bank of Scotland and First Direct.

It marked the second month in a row for payday problems and no reasons have been given for them.

Money latest: How is my bank affected by banking glitch?

The industry has been historically reluctant to talk about the common challenges but its mouthpiece, UK Finance, told Sky News there was help available and protections in place during times of disruption while acknowledging customer frustrations.

The body spoke up as MPs and regulators take a greater interest in the resilience issue due to mounting concerns over the number of glitches.

More from Money

All this comes at a time when major lenders face criticism for continuing to cut branch services at a regular pace – blaming ever higher demand for online services.

The UK’s big banking brands have been shutting branches since the fallout from the financial crisis in 2008, which sparked a rush to cut costs.

The uptake of digital banking services has seen more than 6,200 sites go to the wall since 2015, according to the consumer group Which?

The latest closures were revealed last month by Lloyds – Britain’s biggest mortgage lender.

General view of signage at a branch of Lloyds bank, in London, Britain October 31, 2021. REUTERS/Tom Nicholson
Image:
Lloyds revealed in January that it was cutting a further 130+ branches from its network of brands. Pic: Reuters

Its announcements meant that it planned, across the group, to have just 386 Lloyds-branded branches left, with Halifax down to 281.

Bank of Scotland would have just 90 once the closure programme was completed.

Critics have long accused the industry of failing to sufficiently invest their branch closure savings in better online services.

But a UK Finance spokesperson said: “All banks invest heavily in their systems and technology to ensure customers have easy access to banking services.

“Where issues arise, they work extremely hard to rectify them quickly and to support their customers.

“Banks have been posting information on their websites and social media accounts to ensure they keep customers updated.”

Are banks doing enough?

Earlier this month, The Treasury committee of MPs wrote to bank bosses to request information on the scale and impact of IT failures over the past two years.

Their responses should have been received by Wednesday.

The letters followed an outage at Barclays which led to some customers being unable to access some services for up to three days from Friday 31 January.

The day marked HMRC’s self-assessment deadline alongside pay day.

The Bank of England has also been taking a greater interest in the issue for financial stability reasons.

The MPs sought data from the banks on the volumes of customers affected by glitches – and the compensation that had been offered.

Committee chair, Dame Meg Hillier, said then: “When a bank’s IT system goes down, it can be a real problem for our constituents who were relying on accessing certain services so they can buy food or pay bills.

“For it to happen at a major bank such as Barclays at such a crucial time of year is either bad luck or bad planning. Either way, it’s important to learn what has happened and what will be done about it.

“The rapidly declining number of high street bank branches makes the impact of IT outages even more painful; that’s why I’ve decided to write to some of our biggest banks and building societies.”

Continue Reading

Business

Council finances are becoming unsustainable and whole system overhaul is required, watchdog warns

Published

on

By

Council finances are becoming unsustainable and whole system overhaul is required, watchdog warns

From bin collections and parks to social care, it’s estimated local authorities in England provide more than 800 services for residents, touching on many different aspects of our lives all the way from childhood to elderly care.

A National Audit Office report found spending on services increased by £12.8bn – from £60bn to £72.8bn – between 2015-16 and 2023-24, a 21% increase in real terms.

Most of this increased spending – £10.3bn – has gone to adult and children’s social care, which represents councils’ biggest spend, increasing as a share of overall spending from 53% to 58% over the period.

Previous central funding cuts and an increasing population mean that spending power per person has largely stagnated, however, and remains 1% lower per person than in 2015/16, the report said.

This is a measure of the funding available to local authorities from central government grants, council tax and business rates. Though grant funding has increased in recent years, it has not yet made up for pre-2020 government cuts.

Complex needs

The population in England has increased by 5% over the period, accounting for some of this increased pressure, but it’s not the only driver.

In many areas, demand has outpaced population growth, as external events and the complexity of people’s needs has shifted over time.

The rapid increase in costs of temporary accommodation, for example, has been driven by the large increases in people facing homelessness because of inflationary pressures and housing shortages.

At the same time, demand for new adult social care plans has increased by 15%.

As life expectancies have increased, the length of time in people’s lives during which they suffer from health problems has also increased.

“We see that in adult social care that people have multiple conditions and need more and more support and often will be appearing as if they’re frailer at an earlier age. So that’s an important trend,” explained Melanie Williams, president of the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services.

“We’re constantly focusing on most urgent things at the expense of not doing the preventative work,” she added.

“When we’re just focusing on getting people home from hospital, we’re not doing that piece of work to enable them not to go there in the first place.”

Budget cliff edge over SEND spending

Meanwhile, demand for education, health and care (EHC) plans, for children with more complex special educational support needs has more than doubled, increasing by 140% to 576,000.

Budgets for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) have not kept pace, meaning local authority spending has consistently outstripped government funding, leading to substantial deficits in council budgets.

Most authorities with responsibilities for SEND have overspent their budget as they have been allowed to until March 2026 on a temporary override, but they will need to draw on their own reserves to make these payments in a year.

One in three councils will have deficits that they can’t cover when the override ends.

Cuts to services

In the latest figures for 2023/24, the NAO found £3 in every £5 of services spending by English local authorities went towards social care and education, totalling £42.3bn.

This has left little headroom for other services, many of which have experienced real-terms financial cuts over the same time period, with councils forced to identify other services like libraries, parks and the arts to make savings.

But, Williams warned, cultural and environmental services like these can play a vital role in wellbeing and may actually exacerbate demand for social care.

“For us to be able to safeguard both adults and children – so people that need extra support – we do need that wider bit for councils to do,” said Williams, who also serves as corporate director of adult social care for Nottingham County Council.

“It’s no good me just providing care and support if somebody can’t go out and access a park, or go out and access leisure, or go out and have that wider support in the community.”

Commenting on the report, Cllr Tim Oliver, chairman of the County Councils Network, said: “As we have warned, councils have little choice but to spend more and more on the most demand-intensive services, at the expense of everything else – leaving them providing little more than care services.

“It is market-specific cost pressures, mainly in adult social care, children’s services, and special educational needs, that are driving councils’ costs rather than deprivation. Therefore government must recognise and address these pressures in its fair funding review, otherwise it will push many well-run councils to the brink.”

Fighting fires

The NAO report describes a vicious cycle where councils’ limited budgets have resulted in a focus on reactive care addressing the most urgent needs.

More efficient preventative care that could lower demand in the long term has fallen to the wayside.

In one example cited by the NAO, the Public Health Grant, which funds preventative health services, is expected to fall in real terms by £846m (20.1%) between 2015/16 and 2024/25.

Other areas have seen a switch in funding from prevention to late intervention.

Councils’ funding towards homelessness support services increased by £1.57bn between 2015/16 and 2013/24, while money for preventative and other housing services fell by £0.64bn.

Financing overhaul needed

Since 2018, seven councils have issued section 114 notices, which indicate that a council’s planned spending will breach the Local Government Finance Act when the local authority believes it’s become unable to balance its budget.

And 42 local authorities have received over £5bn of support through the Exceptional Financial Support (EFS) framework since its introduction in 2020.

According to a recent Local Government Association survey referenced in the NAO report, up to 44% of councils believe they’ll have to issue a section 114 notice within the next two years should the UK government cease providing exceptional financial support.

Read more:
Councils to get £68m to build thousands of homes
Council tax to rise to pay for police funding increase
Councils to receive £1bn boost to tackle homelessness

Looking ahead to upcoming funding settlements, and the government’s planned reforms of local government, the NAO warns that short-term measures to address acute funding shortfalls have not addressed the systemic weaknesses in the funding model, with a whole system overhaul required.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chair of the Committee of Public Accounts, said: “Short-term support is a sticking plaster to the underlying pressures facing local authorities. Delays in local audits are further undermining public confidence in local government finances.

“There needs to be a cross-government approach to local government finance reform, which must deliver effective accountability and value for money for taxpayers.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Continue Reading

Trending