Adam Boulton: MPs are heading back to Westminster – but are they all keeping an eye on a looming election?

Published

2 years ago

September 2, 2023

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MPs are returning to Westminster on Monday for the rapidly accelerating downhill run to the next general election.

Thanks to Boris Johnson’s success in repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act there is no precise guidance as to when that date with political destiny will be.

The next general election could even take place the year after next.

If this parliament runs right up to the constitutional buffers, the Commons would be dissolved on 17 December 2024, with the general election taking place no later than 28 January 2025.

Would the Conservatives be wise to campaign for last-gasp re-election through Christmas and the traditional January blues?

Probably not.

The general assumption is that the prime minister will have to screw up his courage and ask the King to call the general election during 2024.

The nation faces months of torrid electioneering until then.

A Sunak win would go against the pattern of history

British politics since 2016 have been dominated by turmoil within the Conservative Party.

It is difficult to boast of any significant achievements by UK plc in that time.

Broken Britain and the Cost Of Living Crisis dominate the public conversation.

Opinion polls are consistently against the Conservatives.

In any case, Sir Anthony Seldon, chronicler of prime ministers, points out for Rishi Sunak to win “would be a unique historic achievement – no party since modern electoral politics were born in 1832 has won a fifth general election in a row”.

Yet that is what the prime minister is attempting.

An immediate Kamikaze early election to get it all over now is not on his agenda.

Sunak wants to celebrate his first anniversary as prime minister on 25 October.

He has just tinkered with a cabinet reshuffle and is planning to host an international conference on Artificial Intelligence as well as a King’s Speech on 7 November.

He spelt out his priorities for the new term before the summer recess in a speech to Tory MPs in the 1922 Committee: “When we come back in September we have a choice to make… do we come together and throw everything at winning the next election or not?

“I’ve made my choice, I’m all in with you to win.”

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By-elections will loom over conference season

Coming together will not be easy in the next few months, not least because MPs will not be legislating together very much.

They will be back at Westminster for barely a fortnight before going into recess until 16 October for an unusually prolonged party conference season.

Further recesses are likely before the King’s speech and for the autumn half-term.

A first order of business next week will be moving the writs – setting the dates – for the two pending by-elections in the seats vacated by Nadine Dorries in Mid-Bedfordshire and by the SNP’s Margaret Ferrier in Rutherglen & West Hamilton.

The results are bound to overshadow the conference season.

The Liberal Democrats meet in Bournemouth in the last week of September, followed in the first half of October by the Conservatives in Manchester, then Labour in Liverpool, and finally the SNP in Aberdeen.

No party can relax about these by-elections.

Expectations are highest for Labour.

Sir Keir Starmer‘s chances of leading a majority government will be boosted if Labour shows it can take back seats from the Scottish nationalists.

Capturing Mid Beds would be a record-breaking result, and act as smashing confirmation of Labour’s standing in the polls and its recent by-election victory in Selby & Ainsty.

Or not.

A split in votes between Labour, Liberal Democrat and independent candidates, could allow the Conservatives to hold on.

This would be a boost for Sunak whatever the underlying realities of the electoral arithmetic.

Tony Blair’s path to Labour’s victory in 1997 was famously likened to “a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor”.

Starmer is currently attempting a similar feat.

Sunak’s hope is that some scandal, party row, or misjudgement makes his opponent drop the vase.

But Starmer is stolid and cautious and Labour looks as united as the feuding Tories look disunited.

Tories are at loggerheads but will throw everything at it

Sunak hopes to use the legislative agenda to “throw everything” at winning the general election.

That means looking for wedge issues – which could cast the opposition in a bad light.

Unfortunately for him, as was shown in the aftermath of the surprise hanging on of Johnson’s former seat in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the Conservatives are at loggerheads over what those policies should be.

In the clear-up session this month Tories are tussling in both the Lords and Commons over the Online Harms Bill, the Energy Bill and the proposed changes on housing and river pollution added to the Levelling-Up Bill by Michael Gove.

Conservative factions are also lining up to take each other on at the Conference – #CPC23 to its organisers.

Centrist “One Nation” Tories are rallying in advance while the Conservative Democratic Organisation is holding a black-tie dinner on the opening night in Manchester graced by right-wing luminaries including Priti Patel, Lord Frost and David Campbell Bannerman.

Nadine Dorries and Theresa May will be there too for the launch of their books, attacking the direction of the party from different sides.

Liz Truss, last year’s prime minister, is expected.

Johnson’s attendance plans are not known.

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Sunak will try to dispel divisions in his party with what he puts into his first King’s speech.

The programme for government is likely to be aspirational for the next government rather than offering immediate remedies for the state of the nation, along the lines of the government’s small boats, NHS and crime weeks during the summer break.

The reshuffle appointment of Sunak-loyalist Claire Coutinho as Energy Security Secretary will confirm fears of Conservatives such as Zac Goldsmith that the prime minister will deploy green policy scepticism as a wedge against Labour.

First-term MP Coutinho has no track record on the environment.

PM’s priorities offer a clue to election timing

The prime minister’s five pledges remain his priorities.

The most likely to succeed is halving inflation, or coming close to it.

Little more than warm words are expected in Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement.

By the Budget in March, some Tories think there may be a “soft spot” of economic optimism, allowing Hunt to tee up a spring election.

Most of those calling for this early vote belong to a “things can only get worse” tendency who fear a recession and still more mortgage pain later in 2024.

As they approach the end of their term, incumbent prime ministers often use local elections as a weathervane before calling a general election.

As things stand, Sunak has little to look forward to in next year’s set of elections in predominantly Labour-leaning metropolitan boroughs, featuring 10 high-profile mayoral contests, including in London and Greater Manchester.

A general election at the same time, on 2 May 2024, could soften the blow.

Alternatively, if Sunak hesitates and the Conservatives do well against expectations, a June general election could follow.

Sunak’s deputy chief of staff has told his team to enjoy next month’s party conference because it could be the last before the election.

Conventional wisdom at Westminster is that this time next year the general election campaign will be under way – with a vote in October wiping out next year’s costly conference season.

In the most recently reported figures, Labour raised more money from donors than the Conservatives.

There has not been an autumn general election in the UK for 50 years.

Sometimes conventional wisdom can be wrong about the dates and the outcomes of elections.

For example, it cannot take account of external factors.

By next September it should be clearer which way the Ukraine war is heading and whether the United States is poised to re-elect Donald Trump.

We can be certain, however, that British politicians and voters are already caught up in a bitterly contentious long campaign to election day and beyond.

Politics

No 10 decline to say if Palestine will be recognised with Hamas in power

Published

7 hours ago

August 4, 2025

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No 10 decline to say if Palestine will be recognised with Hamas in power

The prime minister’s spokesman has refused eight times to confirm whether recognition of Palestine could go ahead if Hamas remain in power and the hostages are not released.

Keir Starmer’s spokesman was questioned by journalists for the first time since the announcement last week that the UK will formally recognise the state in September – unless Israel meets certain conditions including abiding by a ceasefire and increasing aid.

The policy has been criticised by the families of UK hostages, campaigners and some Labour MPs, who argue it would reward Hamas and say it should be conditional on the release of the remaining hostages.

A senior Hamas politician, Ghazi Hamad, speaking to Al Jazeera, said at the weekend that major nations’ decision to recognise a Palestinian state “is one of the fruits of 7 October”.

Gaza latest: Trump pressed to recognise Palestinian state

The PM’s spokesman said on Monday: “The PM is clear that on 7 October, Hamas committed the worst act of terror in Israel’s history. That horror has continued since then.

“As the foreign secretary said over the weekend, Hamas are rightly pariahs who can have no role in Gaza’s future, there is a diplomatic consensus on that. Hamas must immediately release all hostages and have no role in the governance of Gaza.”

But asked whether removing Hamas from power and releasing hostages were conditions for statehood, he said a decision on recognition would be made at the UN General Assembly meeting in September, based on “an assessment of how far the parties have met the steps we have set out. No one side will have veto on recognition through their actions or inactions.”

He added: “Our focus is on the immediate situation on the ground, getting more aid in to end the suffering in Gaza and supporting a ceasefire and a long-term peace for Israelis and Palestinians based a two-state solution.”

Starmer, who recalled his cabinet for an emergency meeting last week before setting out the new position, is following the lead of French president Emmanuel Macron, who first pledged to move toward recognising Palestinian statehood in April.

Canada has also backed recognition if conditions are met, including by the Palestinian Authority.

The prime minister had previously said he would recognise a state of Palestine as part of a contribution to a peace process.

In his announcement last Tuesday, he said: “We need to see at least 500 trucks entering Gaza every day. But ultimately, the only way to bring this humanitarian crisis to an end is through a long-term settlement.

“So we are supporting the US, Egyptian and Qatari efforts to secure a vital ceasefire. That ceasefire must be sustainable and it must lead to a wider peace plan, which we are developing with our international partners.

“I’ve always said we will recognise a Palestinian state as a contribution to a proper peace process, at the moment of maximum impact for the two-state solution. With that solution now under threat, this is the moment to act.”

Adam Rose, a lawyer acting for British families of hostages in Gaza, has said: “Why would Hamas agree to a ceasefire if it knew that to do so would make British recognition of Palestine less likely?”

Politics

Coinbase turns lobbying efforts to UK in scathing op-ed

Published

7 hours ago

August 4, 2025

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Coinbase turns lobbying efforts to UK in scathing op-ed

Former UK Chancellor and current Coinbase adviser George Osborne says the UK is falling behind in the cryptocurrency market, particularly when it comes to stablecoins.

Politics

Nigel Farage dared me to walk in London after 9pm: Here’s my response

Published

11 hours ago

August 4, 2025

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Nigel Farage dared me to walk in London after 9pm: Here's my response

At a press conference today in which Reform UK announced the Tory police and crime commissioner for Leicestershire was joining their ranks, as well as former prison governor Vanessa Frake, I asked Nigel Farage a simple question.

But his answer wasn’t what I expected.

I asked the Reform UK leader if the six-week campaign on law and order, with the tagline “Britain is Lawless”, was in fact project fear scaring people into voting for his party.

He utterly rejected that claim and responded to me saying: “No, they are afraid. They are afraid. I dare you, I dare you to walk through the West End of London after 9 o’clock of an evening wearing jewellery. You wouldn’t do it. You know that I’m right. You wouldn’t do it.”

I am not afraid to walk in the West End of London after 9pm wearing jewellery.

I have done it many times before and will continue to do so… but perhaps that is because I do not own a Rolex.

However, just because Farage is wrong on that point, doesn’t mean he isn’t tapping into other legitimate fears across the country.

Snatch theft does worry me, hence why I now have a phone case with a strap attached to it that I can put around my body.

And I worry about knife crime in my area and what the impact could be if I were to have children – on the weekend someone was stabbed to death a stone’s throw from my house.

However, if we look at the statistics, it is invariably a more nuanced picture than Farage or social media might have us believe.

According to police reports, thefts from a person in London are almost five times the national average, and they’ve been going up since the pandemic.

And the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also notes that thefts outside of the home, eg phone snatching, has increased.

However, possession of weapons has fallen in London by 29% over the last three years.

And according to the ONS, crime in England and Wales is 30% lower than in 2015, and 76% lower than 1995.

And it is a similar picture for violent crime.

In short, am I right to be more worried that snatch theft and knife crime in London is increasing? Yes, and no.

But Nigel Farage is tapping into voters’ emotions – their feelings that the country is broken. It’s a picture the Conservative Party helped to create and the Labour Party happily painted to great effect during the general election campaign of 2024.

And the more politicians of all colours tell voters that “the system is broken”, the more voters might start to believe them.

That is what Nigel Farage is banking on.