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MPs are returning to Westminster on Monday for the rapidly accelerating downhill run to the next general election.

Thanks to Boris Johnson’s success in repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act there is no precise guidance as to when that date with political destiny will be.

The next general election could even take place the year after next.

If this parliament runs right up to the constitutional buffers, the Commons would be dissolved on 17 December 2024, with the general election taking place no later than 28 January 2025.

Would the Conservatives be wise to campaign for last-gasp re-election through Christmas and the traditional January blues?

Probably not.

The general assumption is that the prime minister will have to screw up his courage and ask the King to call the general election during 2024.

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The nation faces months of torrid electioneering until then.

A Sunak win would go against the pattern of history

British politics since 2016 have been dominated by turmoil within the Conservative Party.

It is difficult to boast of any significant achievements by UK plc in that time.

Broken Britain and the Cost Of Living Crisis dominate the public conversation.

Opinion polls are consistently against the Conservatives.

In any case, Sir Anthony Seldon, chronicler of prime ministers, points out for Rishi Sunak to win “would be a unique historic achievement – no party since modern electoral politics were born in 1832 has won a fifth general election in a row”.

Yet that is what the prime minister is attempting.

An immediate Kamikaze early election to get it all over now is not on his agenda.

Sunak wants to celebrate his first anniversary as prime minister on 25 October.

He has just tinkered with a cabinet reshuffle and is planning to host an international conference on Artificial Intelligence as well as a King’s Speech on 7 November.

He spelt out his priorities for the new term before the summer recess in a speech to Tory MPs in the 1922 Committee: “When we come back in September we have a choice to make… do we come together and throw everything at winning the next election or not?

“I’ve made my choice, I’m all in with you to win.”

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Anger over Shapps appointment

By-elections will loom over conference season

Coming together will not be easy in the next few months, not least because MPs will not be legislating together very much.

They will be back at Westminster for barely a fortnight before going into recess until 16 October for an unusually prolonged party conference season.

Further recesses are likely before the King’s speech and for the autumn half-term.

A first order of business next week will be moving the writs – setting the dates – for the two pending by-elections in the seats vacated by Nadine Dorries in Mid-Bedfordshire and by the SNP’s Margaret Ferrier in Rutherglen & West Hamilton.

The results are bound to overshadow the conference season.

The Liberal Democrats meet in Bournemouth in the last week of September, followed in the first half of October by the Conservatives in Manchester, then Labour in Liverpool, and finally the SNP in Aberdeen.

No party can relax about these by-elections.

Expectations are highest for Labour.

Sir Keir Starmer‘s chances of leading a majority government will be boosted if Labour shows it can take back seats from the Scottish nationalists.

Capturing Mid Beds would be a record-breaking result, and act as smashing confirmation of Labour’s standing in the polls and its recent by-election victory in Selby & Ainsty.

Or not.

A split in votes between Labour, Liberal Democrat and independent candidates, could allow the Conservatives to hold on.

This would be a boost for Sunak whatever the underlying realities of the electoral arithmetic.

Tony Blair’s path to Labour’s victory in 1997 was famously likened to “a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor”.

Starmer is currently attempting a similar feat.

Sunak’s hope is that some scandal, party row, or misjudgement makes his opponent drop the vase.

But Starmer is stolid and cautious and Labour looks as united as the feuding Tories look disunited.

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Tories are at loggerheads but will throw everything at it

Sunak hopes to use the legislative agenda to “throw everything” at winning the general election.

That means looking for wedge issues – which could cast the opposition in a bad light.

Unfortunately for him, as was shown in the aftermath of the surprise hanging on of Johnson’s former seat in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the Conservatives are at loggerheads over what those policies should be.

In the clear-up session this month Tories are tussling in both the Lords and Commons over the Online Harms Bill, the Energy Bill and the proposed changes on housing and river pollution added to the Levelling-Up Bill by Michael Gove.

Conservative factions are also lining up to take each other on at the Conference – #CPC23 to its organisers.

Centrist “One Nation” Tories are rallying in advance while the Conservative Democratic Organisation is holding a black-tie dinner on the opening night in Manchester graced by right-wing luminaries including Priti Patel, Lord Frost and David Campbell Bannerman.

Nadine Dorries and Theresa May will be there too for the launch of their books, attacking the direction of the party from different sides.

Liz Truss, last year’s prime minister, is expected.

Johnson’s attendance plans are not known.

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Sunak will try to dispel divisions in his party with what he puts into his first King’s speech.

The programme for government is likely to be aspirational for the next government rather than offering immediate remedies for the state of the nation, along the lines of the government’s small boats, NHS and crime weeks during the summer break.

The reshuffle appointment of Sunak-loyalist Claire Coutinho as Energy Security Secretary will confirm fears of Conservatives such as Zac Goldsmith that the prime minister will deploy green policy scepticism as a wedge against Labour.

First-term MP Coutinho has no track record on the environment.

PM’s priorities offer a clue to election timing

The prime minister’s five pledges remain his priorities.

The most likely to succeed is halving inflation, or coming close to it.

Little more than warm words are expected in Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement.

By the Budget in March, some Tories think there may be a “soft spot” of economic optimism, allowing Hunt to tee up a spring election.

Most of those calling for this early vote belong to a “things can only get worse” tendency who fear a recession and still more mortgage pain later in 2024.

As they approach the end of their term, incumbent prime ministers often use local elections as a weathervane before calling a general election.

As things stand, Sunak has little to look forward to in next year’s set of elections in predominantly Labour-leaning metropolitan boroughs, featuring 10 high-profile mayoral contests, including in London and Greater Manchester.

A general election at the same time, on 2 May 2024, could soften the blow.

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Alternatively, if Sunak hesitates and the Conservatives do well against expectations, a June general election could follow.

Sunak’s deputy chief of staff has told his team to enjoy next month’s party conference because it could be the last before the election.

Conventional wisdom at Westminster is that this time next year the general election campaign will be under way – with a vote in October wiping out next year’s costly conference season.

In the most recently reported figures, Labour raised more money from donors than the Conservatives.

There has not been an autumn general election in the UK for 50 years.

Sometimes conventional wisdom can be wrong about the dates and the outcomes of elections.

For example, it cannot take account of external factors.

By next September it should be clearer which way the Ukraine war is heading and whether the United States is poised to re-elect Donald Trump.

We can be certain, however, that British politicians and voters are already caught up in a bitterly contentious long campaign to election day and beyond.

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SEC crypto trading roundtable to include crypto giants Uniswap, Coinbase

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SEC crypto trading roundtable to include crypto giants Uniswap, Coinbase

SEC crypto trading roundtable to include crypto giants Uniswap, Coinbase

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has released the list of executives from US crypto and finance giants that will take part in a roundtable discussion on crypto trading regulation.

On April 7, the regulator said its upcoming April 11 roundtable will discuss how it should handle crypto trading rules, calling it “Between a Block and a Hard Place: Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading.”

It will be the second in a series of discussions on crypto, headed by its recently-formed Crypto Task Force.

Taking part are Uniswap Labs chief legal officer Katherine Minarik, Cumberland DRW associate general counsel Chelsea Pizzola and Coinbase institutional product vice president Gregory Tusar — all firms that had once been in the regulator’s scope.

Under the Biden administration, the regulator sued Cumberland DRW in October and Coinbase in June 2023 for alleged securities law violations, but both lawsuits were dropped this year under the Trump administration.

The SEC also started an investigation for possible enforcement action into Uniswap Labs in April 2024, which was dropped in February with no further action.

Also taking part in the roundtable are New York Stock Exchange product chief Jon Herrick, crypto brokerage FalconX business lead Austin Reid, securities tokenizing firm Texture Capital CEO Richard Johnson and the University of California, Berkeley finance chair Christine Parlour.

SEC crypto trading roundtable to include crypto giants Uniswap, Coinbase

Source: SEC

Dave Lauer, co-founder of the advocacy group We the Investors and Tyler Gellasch, CEO of the not-for-profit Healthy Markets Association, will also take part, while law firm Goodwin Procter partner Nicholas Losurdo will moderate the discussion.

Representing the SEC will be acting chair Mark Uyeda, Crypto Task Force chief of staff Richard Gabbert and Commissioners Caroline Crenshaw and Hester Peirce.

The roundtable is the second crypto-focused discussion in a series of five that the SEC dubbed the “Spring Sprint Toward Crypto Clarity.” The first was on March 21, regarding the legal status of crypto, while three future discussions will cover custody, tokenization, and decentralized finance (DeFi).

SEC’s Uyeda orders review of staff crypto comments

The roundtables come as the SEC, under President Donald Trump, works to revamp its oversight of the crypto industry, with its latest action being to review staff statements on crypto so they can possibly be changed or withdrawn.

Uyeda said in an April 5 statement shared by the SEC on X that due to Trump’s executive order on deregulation and recommendations from the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, he was reviewing seven staff statements, five of which concerned crypto.

SEC crypto trading roundtable to include crypto giants Uniswap, Coinbase

Source: SEC

“The purpose of this review is to identify staff statements that should be modified or rescinded consistent with current agency priorities,” Uyeda said.

Related: SEC paints ‘a distorted picture’ of USD stablecoin market — Crenshaw 

The first on the list was an April 2019 analysis from the Strategic Hub for Innovation and Financial Technology on how crypto sales could be investment contracts under the securities defining Howey test — an argument the agency had made to sue multiple crypto firms for legal violations.

Also up for review are two Division of Investment Management statements, one from May 2021 asking investors to consider the risks of funds with exposure to Bitcoin futures and a November 2020 statement asking for feedback on whether state-chartered banks meet standards to be qualified custodians.

The SEC will also look into a December 2022 Division of Corporation Finance statement that urged SEC-regulated companies to evaluate their disclosures to mention if a slew of crypto firm bankruptcies and collapses at the time impacted their business.

Finally, the agency will review a Division of Examinations alert from February 2021 that said, “a number of activities related to the offer, sale and trading of digital assets that are securities present unique risks to investors.” 

Legal Panel: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set 

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Spanish police arrest six over $20M AI-powered investment scam

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Spanish police arrest six over M AI-powered investment scam

Spanish police arrest six over M AI-powered investment scam

Authorities in Spain have arrested six people who helped operate a global AI-powered investment scam that stole over $20 million from at least 208 victims. 

The scammers would swindle victims up to three times. After stealing an initial sum through the investment scam, the fraudsters contacted victims twice more, masquerading as investment managers and then as authorities, offering to recover the stolen funds for a fee, Spanish police said in an April 7 statement. 

The scammers used deepfake ads of “national personalities” promising high returns on crypto investments, and would occasionally pose as financial advisers or even feign romantic interest to lure in victims.  

Experts have been warning of a rise in AI-enhanced scams. Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said in its Feb. 13 Crypto Scam Revenue 2024 report that generative AI is making “scams more scalable and affordable for bad actors to conduct.”

“Victims were not selected randomly; instead, algorithms selected those whose profiles matched the cybercriminals’ searches,” Spanish police said.

“Once they selected their victims, they placed advertising campaigns on the websites or social networks they used, offering them cryptocurrency investments with high returns and zero risk of asset loss — investments that, obviously, turned out to be a scam.” 

When victims could not withdraw the funds, most realized it was a scam, according to Spanish police; however, the ruse didn’t end there. 

Scammers would trick victims again with follow-up scams

The cybercriminals would then contact victims again, posing as investment managers, claiming the stolen funds were frozen and could be recovered if they paid a deposit. 

“The victims, hoping to finally recover their money, made the deposit without realizing they had been scammed again,” Spanish police said.

The scammers would then contact victims a third time, this time posing as Europol agents or lawyers from the United Kingdom, offering to return the stolen funds if the victim paid the corresponding taxes in the country where it was blocked.

Related:  Crypto broker breaks ankles while fleeing kidnappers in Spain

Spanish authorities arrested six people involved in the syndicate, charging them with fraud, money laundering and falsifying documents in a criminal organization. 

During a raid on the alleged leader behind the scam, Spanish authorities seized numerous cell phones, computers, hard drives, a simulated weapon and extensive documentation. 

Several people linked to the plot have also been identified in other countries, and the syndicate allegedly created a large number of fake companies to channel the stolen funds.  

“Furthermore, the members of the organization used multiple false identities. In the case of the leader, for example, he used more than 50 different identities,” Spanish police said.

Magazine: Bitcoin heading to $70K soon? Crypto baller funds SpaceX flight: Hodler’s Digest, March 30 – April 5

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Lawyer sues US homeland dept to probe supposed Satoshi Nakamoto meeting

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Lawyer sues US homeland dept to probe supposed Satoshi Nakamoto meeting

Lawyer sues US homeland dept to probe supposed Satoshi Nakamoto meeting

Update: April 8 at 1:01am UTC: This article has been updated to include James Murphy’s responses to two questions from Cointelegraph.

A crypto lawyer has sued the US Department of Homeland Security, alleging the agency may know who created Bitcoin — compelling the department to share what it knows. 

The Freedom of Information Act lawsuit was filed by James Murphy, who based his accusations on claims made by DHS Special Agent Rana Saoud at a conference in April 2019, where she said a few of her colleagues had previously met with four people involved in creating Bitcoin.

“My FOIA lawsuit simply asks for the notes, email and other documents relating to that alleged interview,” Murphy posted to X after announcing the April 7 suit.  

“IF the interview really happened as the DHS Agent claimed, there should be documentation of the substance of that meeting,” added Murphy, who goes by MetaLawMan on X.

Lawyer sues US homeland dept to probe supposed Satoshi Nakamoto meeting

Source: James Murphy

Speaking at the OffshoreAlert Conference North America in Miami in April 2019, Saoud said DHS agents met with the four people it believed to have created Bitcoin, asking what their motives were and what the “end game” is for Bitcoin.

“The agents flew to California and they realized that he wasn’t alone in creating this, there were three other people, they sat down and talked with them to find out how this actually works and what the reason for it was,” Saoud said in the presentation, which is available on YouTube.

If the DHS resists disclosure, Murphy said he will “pursue the case to conclusion” to solve the mystery.

Murphy, however, noted that it is possible that Saoud and the other DHS agents were mistaken and did not interview the real Satoshi Nakamoto.

Related: Satoshi Nakamoto turns 50 as Bitcoin becomes US reserve asset

Murphy is being assisted by former Assistant US Attorney Brian Field, who specializes in Freedom of Information Act litigation.

The purpose of the Freedom of Information Act is to promote transparency and accountability by granting the public access to information held by the government.

2 questions for James Murphy, aka MetaLawMan

Cointelegraph asked Murphy two questions about the DHS lawsuit. Here are his responses in full.

Question #1: What is your gut feeling—do you think the DHS actually interviewed the real Satoshi?

Answer: “I think it’s very possible that the DHS agent was mistaken in what she said at that conference. I think DHS agents may have met with bitcoin code maintainers, or with actual Satoshi imposters. But, who knows? The DHS agent was a pretty high ranking official and was in a position to know what she was talking about. Either way, I think it will be productive to find out and hopefully resolve this question. Nothing prevents DHS from voluntarily revealing the information without need for protracted litigation.”

Question #2: If the agency did speak with the four creators — who may be ordinary US citizens — why do you believe revealing their identities serves the public interest, even if it could put their safety or privacy at risk?

Answer: “I don’t understand the question. The identities of the creators of all of the largest blockchain projects, like Charles Hoskinson and Vitalik Buterin etc., are all well known in the crypto community. There are also many major figures like Michael Saylor, Tim Draper and others who have amassed enormous wealth through investment in bitcoin and their identities are well known.

There are hundreds of documentaries on YouTube where amateur sleuths have tried to identify Satoshi. I’m not one of them. I’m not hiring investigators to try to track down Satoshi, I’m seeking government records under transparency laws in effect in the U.S. If DHS did, in fact, learn Satoshi’s identity, then I’m not sure what the rationale is for dozens of government employees to have this information but withhold it from the general public.

Our government is required to be transparent and not keep secrets from the citizens, absent a legitimate national security concern or other limited exemption. We consider this a fundamental aspect of our freedom in the USA. It is why we have something called the “Freedom of Information Act.” Transparency is good, the government hiding information from the citizenry is generally bad.

I am open about the fact that I am pro-bitcoin, having been an investor in bitcoin and a bitcoin miner since 2017. I speak to groups of executives and policy makers about bitcoin and I advocate for bitcoin adoption. What I find when I give these talks is very often these audiences (who are new to bitcoin) struggle with the idea that the creator of bitcoin is unknown while the provenance of the other major crypto projects is (relatively) transparent.

So, my intention is to either conclusively refute the claim of the DHS agent that they interviewed Satoshi, or achieve some transparency that will open the door to greater bitcoin adoption in the U.S. and around the globe. I support President Trump’s initiatives to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile.

Since the bitcoin code is open source and can only be changed through the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) procedure, Satoshi (if he or they were identified) would have no ability to unilaterally affect changes to bitcoin. As a result, any revelation of Satoshi’s identity is unlikely to adversely impact bitcoin. It’s more likely that such transparency would be a net positive for growing bitcoin adoption. Others may have different views on that and I respect their opinions.”

Efforts to identify Satoshi Nakamoto have failed

The lawsuit follows a wave of recent efforts attempting to uncover Satoshi’s identity.

Last October, a controversial HBO documentary claimed that Peter Todd, a Bitcoin cypherpunk, invented Bitcoin. Todd refuted that conclusion, and most industry pundits said HBO’s evidence was weak.

Nick Szabo, Adam Back and Hal Finney have also had their names tied to Satoshi’s identity. Szabo and Back regularly refute claims they’re Satoshi, as did Finney before he died in 2013.

Meanwhile, members of the Bitcoin community are split on whether unveiling Satoshi’s identity would be a net positive for Bitcoin.

Some worry that revealing Satoshi’s identity could compromise Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos and put Satoshi’s safety at risk, while others want to be reassured that Bitcoin wasn’t created by the US government.

Magazine: 10 crypto theories that missed as badly as ‘Peter Todd is Satoshi’

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