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MPs are returning to Westminster on Monday for the rapidly accelerating downhill run to the next general election.

Thanks to Boris Johnson’s success in repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act there is no precise guidance as to when that date with political destiny will be.

The next general election could even take place the year after next.

If this parliament runs right up to the constitutional buffers, the Commons would be dissolved on 17 December 2024, with the general election taking place no later than 28 January 2025.

Would the Conservatives be wise to campaign for last-gasp re-election through Christmas and the traditional January blues?

Probably not.

The general assumption is that the prime minister will have to screw up his courage and ask the King to call the general election during 2024.

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The nation faces months of torrid electioneering until then.

A Sunak win would go against the pattern of history

British politics since 2016 have been dominated by turmoil within the Conservative Party.

It is difficult to boast of any significant achievements by UK plc in that time.

Broken Britain and the Cost Of Living Crisis dominate the public conversation.

Opinion polls are consistently against the Conservatives.

In any case, Sir Anthony Seldon, chronicler of prime ministers, points out for Rishi Sunak to win “would be a unique historic achievement – no party since modern electoral politics were born in 1832 has won a fifth general election in a row”.

Yet that is what the prime minister is attempting.

An immediate Kamikaze early election to get it all over now is not on his agenda.

Sunak wants to celebrate his first anniversary as prime minister on 25 October.

He has just tinkered with a cabinet reshuffle and is planning to host an international conference on Artificial Intelligence as well as a King’s Speech on 7 November.

He spelt out his priorities for the new term before the summer recess in a speech to Tory MPs in the 1922 Committee: “When we come back in September we have a choice to make… do we come together and throw everything at winning the next election or not?

“I’ve made my choice, I’m all in with you to win.”

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Anger over Shapps appointment

By-elections will loom over conference season

Coming together will not be easy in the next few months, not least because MPs will not be legislating together very much.

They will be back at Westminster for barely a fortnight before going into recess until 16 October for an unusually prolonged party conference season.

Further recesses are likely before the King’s speech and for the autumn half-term.

A first order of business next week will be moving the writs – setting the dates – for the two pending by-elections in the seats vacated by Nadine Dorries in Mid-Bedfordshire and by the SNP’s Margaret Ferrier in Rutherglen & West Hamilton.

The results are bound to overshadow the conference season.

The Liberal Democrats meet in Bournemouth in the last week of September, followed in the first half of October by the Conservatives in Manchester, then Labour in Liverpool, and finally the SNP in Aberdeen.

No party can relax about these by-elections.

Expectations are highest for Labour.

Sir Keir Starmer‘s chances of leading a majority government will be boosted if Labour shows it can take back seats from the Scottish nationalists.

Capturing Mid Beds would be a record-breaking result, and act as smashing confirmation of Labour’s standing in the polls and its recent by-election victory in Selby & Ainsty.

Or not.

A split in votes between Labour, Liberal Democrat and independent candidates, could allow the Conservatives to hold on.

This would be a boost for Sunak whatever the underlying realities of the electoral arithmetic.

Tony Blair’s path to Labour’s victory in 1997 was famously likened to “a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor”.

Starmer is currently attempting a similar feat.

Sunak’s hope is that some scandal, party row, or misjudgement makes his opponent drop the vase.

But Starmer is stolid and cautious and Labour looks as united as the feuding Tories look disunited.

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Tories are at loggerheads but will throw everything at it

Sunak hopes to use the legislative agenda to “throw everything” at winning the general election.

That means looking for wedge issues – which could cast the opposition in a bad light.

Unfortunately for him, as was shown in the aftermath of the surprise hanging on of Johnson’s former seat in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the Conservatives are at loggerheads over what those policies should be.

In the clear-up session this month Tories are tussling in both the Lords and Commons over the Online Harms Bill, the Energy Bill and the proposed changes on housing and river pollution added to the Levelling-Up Bill by Michael Gove.

Conservative factions are also lining up to take each other on at the Conference – #CPC23 to its organisers.

Centrist “One Nation” Tories are rallying in advance while the Conservative Democratic Organisation is holding a black-tie dinner on the opening night in Manchester graced by right-wing luminaries including Priti Patel, Lord Frost and David Campbell Bannerman.

Nadine Dorries and Theresa May will be there too for the launch of their books, attacking the direction of the party from different sides.

Liz Truss, last year’s prime minister, is expected.

Johnson’s attendance plans are not known.

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Sunak will try to dispel divisions in his party with what he puts into his first King’s speech.

The programme for government is likely to be aspirational for the next government rather than offering immediate remedies for the state of the nation, along the lines of the government’s small boats, NHS and crime weeks during the summer break.

The reshuffle appointment of Sunak-loyalist Claire Coutinho as Energy Security Secretary will confirm fears of Conservatives such as Zac Goldsmith that the prime minister will deploy green policy scepticism as a wedge against Labour.

First-term MP Coutinho has no track record on the environment.

PM’s priorities offer a clue to election timing

The prime minister’s five pledges remain his priorities.

The most likely to succeed is halving inflation, or coming close to it.

Little more than warm words are expected in Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement.

By the Budget in March, some Tories think there may be a “soft spot” of economic optimism, allowing Hunt to tee up a spring election.

Most of those calling for this early vote belong to a “things can only get worse” tendency who fear a recession and still more mortgage pain later in 2024.

As they approach the end of their term, incumbent prime ministers often use local elections as a weathervane before calling a general election.

As things stand, Sunak has little to look forward to in next year’s set of elections in predominantly Labour-leaning metropolitan boroughs, featuring 10 high-profile mayoral contests, including in London and Greater Manchester.

A general election at the same time, on 2 May 2024, could soften the blow.

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Alternatively, if Sunak hesitates and the Conservatives do well against expectations, a June general election could follow.

Sunak’s deputy chief of staff has told his team to enjoy next month’s party conference because it could be the last before the election.

Conventional wisdom at Westminster is that this time next year the general election campaign will be under way – with a vote in October wiping out next year’s costly conference season.

In the most recently reported figures, Labour raised more money from donors than the Conservatives.

There has not been an autumn general election in the UK for 50 years.

Sometimes conventional wisdom can be wrong about the dates and the outcomes of elections.

For example, it cannot take account of external factors.

By next September it should be clearer which way the Ukraine war is heading and whether the United States is poised to re-elect Donald Trump.

We can be certain, however, that British politicians and voters are already caught up in a bitterly contentious long campaign to election day and beyond.

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European Central Bank picks tech partners for digital euro

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European Central Bank picks tech partners for digital euro

European Central Bank picks tech partners for digital euro

The ECB said it had reached agreements with seven entities not yet involving “any payment” responsible for components of the digital euro, potentially launching in 2029.

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Michelle Mone says she won’t step down as Tory peer – and accuses chancellor of ‘endangering’ her

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Michelle Mone says she won't step down as Tory peer - and accuses chancellor of 'endangering' her

Baroness Michelle Mone says she will defy calls for her to step down from the House of Lords after PPE Medpro, a company founded by her husband, was ordered to repay £122m to the government for providing faulty PPE at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The peer has faced calls to stand down from MPs across the political spectrum, including Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who earlier this week agreed with Baroness Mone’s contention that the government was pursuing a “vendetta” in trying to recover improper Covid funding.

“Too right we are,” she said in comments at the Labour Party conference.

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Baroness Mone ‘should resign’

In an extraordinary letter to the prime minister, Baroness Mone has accused Ms Reeves of endangering her and her family with her comments, citing the murders of Jo Cox and David Amess as evidence of the risks facing parliamentarians.

She also alleged ministerial interference in the civil and ongoing criminal investigations of PPE Medpro, and has called for an investigation into whether ministers have “improperly influenced” the Crown Prosecution Service and the National Crime Agency.

In the letter, sent from the private office of Baroness Mone OBE and seen by Sky News, she addresses the prime minister directly, writing in a personal capacity “first as a wife, second as a mother, and lastly as a Baroness.”

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£122m bill that may never be paid

Referring to Ms Reeves’ comments, she writes: “The chancellor’s deliberate use of the term “vendetta”, a word connoting vengeance, feud and blood feud, is incendiary and has directly increased the risks to my personal safety…. My family and I now live with a heightened and genuine fear of appearing in public.”

She goes on to accuse Reeves and health secretary Wes Streeting of “falsehoods” in demanding that she hand back £122m, pointing out that she was never a director of PPE Medpro and “never received a penny from it personally.”

While the company was founded by her husband Doug Barrowman, a High Court judgement this week confirmed that Baroness Mone introduced it to the government’s VIP fast lane for PPE providers, and lobbied on its behalf in negotiations.

She has previously admitted that £29m of profit from the PPE contract was passed to a family trust of which she and her children are beneficiaries.

The peer has also accused the Prime Minister of “a total lie” when “you stated in Parliament that my children had received £29m into their bank accounts.”

Baroness Mone said that following these comments, she had received threatening and abusive communications, and cited the death of TV presenter Caroline Flack, who took her own life, as showing “the fatal consequences of personalised public vilification”.

“Your cabinet members, by repeating this knowingly false claim, are inciting hostility and inflaming public hatred against me.”

Baroness Michelle Mone and her husband Doug Barrowman. Pic: PA
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Baroness Michelle Mone and her husband Doug Barrowman. Pic: PA

She has also accused the home secretary of influencing the NCA and Director of Public Prosecutions in unspecified meetings to discuss “high-profile cases”.

“That political influence is being brought to bear is, therefore, undeniable,” she said.

Read more:
Finances feeling tight? New figures help explain why
Living standards stall with signals flashing red for the PM

On Wednesday, PPE Medpro was ordered to repay £122m paid for 25 million surgical gowns that failed to meet sterility standards in breach of its contract with the Department of Health and Social Care.

PPE Medpro was put into administration the day before the judgment, with assets of just £666,000.

Asked if Baroness Mone would step down from the Lords, a spokesman said: “Those calling for Baroness Mone’s resignation from the House of Lords would be well advised to read the open letter sent this morning to the prime minister, which sets out how this has now become a personal attack and vendetta, politically motivated with loss of all balance and objectivity.”

Sky News has asked Number 10 and the Treasury for a response to the allegations made by Baroness Mone.

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Finances feeling tight? New figures on disposable income help explain why

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'A disaster for living standards': We now have just £1 more of disposable income than in 2019

Monthly disposable income fell by £40 per person between Boris Johnson’s election victory in December 2019 and Rishi Sunak’s defeat in July 2024.

It is the first time in recorded British history that disposable income has been lower at the end of a parliamentary term than it was at the start, Sky News Data x Forensics analysis reveals.

Disposable income is the money people have left over after paying taxes and receiving benefits (including pensions). Essential expenses like rent or mortgage payments, council tax, food and energy bills all need to be paid from disposable income.

Previously published figures showed a slight improvement between December 2019 and June 2024, but those were updated by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday.

There has been an uplift in the last year, although we’re poorer now than we were at the start of the year, and today we only have £1 more on average to spend or save each month than we did at the end of 2019.

That represents “an unmitigated disaster for living standards”, according to Lalitha Try, economist at independent living standards thinktank the Resolution Foundation.

Have things gotten better under Labour?

Disposable income has increased by £41 per person per month since Labour took office in July 2024. However, that masks a significant deterioration in recent months: it is lower now than it was at the start of 2025.

In the first six months of Labour’s tenure, disposable income rose by £55, a larger increase than under any other government in the same period. In part, this was down to the pay rises for public sector workers that had been agreed under the previous Conservative administration.

But the rise also represents a continuation of the trajectory from the final six months of the outgoing government. Between December 2023 and June 2024, monthly disposable income rose by £46.

That trajectory reversed in the first part of this year, and the average person now has £14 less to spend or save each month than they did at the start of 2025.

Jeremy Hunt, Conservative chancellor from October 2022 until the July 2024 election defeat, told Sky News: “The big picture is that it was the pandemic rather than actions of a government that caused it [the fall in disposable income].

“I clawed some back through (I know I would say this) hard work, and Labour tried to buy an instant boost through massive pay rises. The curious thing is why they have not fed through to the numbers.”

The £40 drop between Mr Johnson’s electoral victory in 2019 and Mr Sunak’s loss in 2024 is roughly the same as the average person spends on food and drink per week.

By comparison, since 1955, when the data dates back to, living standards have improved by an average of £115 per month between parliamentary terms.

Vital services, things like energy, food and housing, that all need to be paid for out of disposable income, have all increased in price at a faster rate than overall inflation since 2019 as well.

This means that the impact on savings and discretionary spending is likely to be more severe for most people, and especially so for lower earners who spend a larger proportion of their money on essentials.

Responding to our analysis, the Resolution Foundation’s Lalitha Try said: “Average household incomes fell marginally during the last parliament – an unmitigated disaster for living standards, as families were hit first by the pandemic and then the highest inflation in a generation.

“We desperately need a catch-up boost to household incomes in the second half of the 2020s, and to achieve that we’ll need a return to wider economic growth.”

Analysis by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, which also takes into account housing costs, says that disposable income is projected to be £45 a month lower by September 2029 than it was when Labour took office.

We approached both Labour and the Conservative Party for comment but both failed to respond.

Read more:
Is PM making progress towards his key policies?

How are Labour performing in other areas?

Labour have made “improving living standards in all parts of the UK” one of their main “missions” to achieve during this parliament.

Sam Ray-Chaudhuri, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Sky News: “Labour’s mission to see an increase in living standards over the parliament remains a very unambitious one, given that (now) almost every parliament has seen a growth in disposable income.

“Doing so will represent an improvement compared with the last parliament, but it doesn’t change the fact that we are in a period of real lack of growth over the last few years.”

As well as the living standards pledge, the Sky News Data x Forensics team has been tracking some of the other key promises made by Sir Keir and his party, before and after they got into power, including both economic targets and policy goals.

Use our tracker to see how things like tax, inflation and economic growth has changed since Labour were elected.

The policy areas we have been tracking include immigration, healthcare, house-building, energy and crime. You can see Labour’s performance on each of those here.

Click here to read more information about why we picked these targets and how we’re measuring them.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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