Ukraine’s underdogs are outfoxing archaic Russia with drone warfare – but their raids won’t end the war
Ukraine might have thwarted Russian ambitions to subjugate the whole of the country, but it faces a herculean task if it is to expel Russian forces from occupied territories completely.
Ukraine remains the David to Russia’s Goliath.
It cannot afford to be trapped in an attritional battle that it would struggle to win; instead, it has exploited drone technology to provide an asymmetric advantage.
Drones are low cost, widely available, and effective, but are relatively slow and thus easy to shoot down.
So why have they proven so effective for Ukraine?
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Ukraine’s drone attack explained
A drone is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) without any human pilot, crew, or passengers on board, and they are often remotely controlled; however, with the advent of AI, they are increasingly autonomous.
Drones rose to prominence in the post-9/11 era when long-endurance surveillance was required.
Since then, rapid advances in satellite technology have driven down both the cost and weight of sensors, with obvious military benefits.
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Ukraine war latest
Key areas where drones have given Ukraine the initiative
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Ukraine drone intact after chase
Ukraine’s battlefield intelligence is evolving at speed
Since the Second World War, battlefield surveillance has been a vital way to identify – and then target – enemy forces.
Balloons hoisted spotters high above the frontlines to help mortar crews zero in on their prey, to devastating effect.
Over a century later, tactical nano-drones are providing Ukraine with the same battlefield intelligence, with the added benefit of providing highly accurate target locations and indeed even laser guidance for precision munitions.
Despite Russian efforts to thwart Ukrainian drones, Ukrainian operators use their “downtime” to disassemble their drones, add extra capability, and update the software.
Their dedication means that, by dawn, they have an updated and even more deadly drone to field against the Russians.
This rate of innovation is unprecedented and is not emulated by the predictable and archaic Russian military.
A woman cries on the coffin of Ukrainian helicopter navigator, Ivan Yaroviy, in Poltava. Pic: AP
Ukrainian soldiers burying flight engineer Yuriy Anisimov in Poltava. Pic: AP
But, drones fly slowly, have very limited self-protection and are therefore vulnerable.
And, since their size and range limit payload, drones have traditionally been more of an irritant than decisive military weapons.
Although Ukraine cannot use Western-supplied weapons to attack Russian territory, Ukraine has leveraged online crowdfunding to help procure a wide range of commercially available drones.
When modified, these have proven very effective at degrading Russian logistics resupply lines, fuel depots and ammunition dumps, overwhelming defences with simultaneous attacks.
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A profound psychological impact for Ukraine’s underdogs
Strategically, Ukraine has also managed to use a blend of missiles and drones to attack targets deep inside Russian territory.
Whereas Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities have simply hardened Ukrainian resolve to defeat the Russian invader, Ukrainian attacks on Moscow have had a profound psychological impact on Muscovites – by undermining Vladimir Putin’s claim that he was forced to invade Ukraine to protect Russians – which he is failing to do.
Russia has robust air defence systems, but these are designed to combat limited numbers of ballistic missile attacks, not waves of drones.
Air defence missiles are ferociously expensive and missiles are of limited supply – a Patriot missile costs $4m which is over 1,000x more expensive than most of the drones – so in drone wars, quantity has a quality all of its own.
Russia’s conventional and predictable approach to warfare has enabled Ukraine to exploit technology and innovation to target the Black Sea Fleet, strategic Russian fighter and bomber bases far behind the frontlines and airports (including Moscow).
A satellite image shows the air base in Pskov. Pic: AP
Individually, these targets are not tactically significant, but collectively they have exposed Russian vulnerability and helped Ukraine counter Russia’s conventional military advantage.
Drones might not win the war, but they have provided a rare asymmetric advantage to the Ukraine underdogs.
However, it is not only Russia that is heavily reliant on legacy equipment and doctrine, and the West must adapt to innovate and exploit technology apace, to combat future asymmetric threats such as rogue states or terrorism.
Drone wars have moved from the realms of fiction into reality, with profound implications for global security.
World
Stock markets slump for second day running after Trump announces tariffs – in worst day for indexes since COVID
Worldwide stock markets have plummeted for the second day running as the fallout from Donald Trump’s global tariffs continues.
While European and Asian markets suffered notable falls, American indexes were the worst hit, with Wall Street closing to a sea of red on Friday following Thursday’s rout – the worst day in US markets since the COVID-19 pandemic.
As it happened: Worst week’s trading in five years
All three of the US’s major indexes were down by more than 5% at market close; The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 5.5%, the S&P 500 was 5.97% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 5.82%.
The Nasdaq was also 22% below its record-high set in December, which indicates a bear market.
Read more: What’s a bear market?
Ever since the US president announced the tariffs on Wednesday evening, analysts estimate that around $4.9trn (£3.8trn) has been wiped off the value of the global stock market.
Mr Trump has remained unapologetic as the markets struggle, posting in all-caps on Truth Social before the markets closed that “only the weak will fail”.
The UK’s leading stock market, the FTSE 100, also suffered its worst daily drop in more than five years, closing 4.95% down, a level not seen since March 2020.
And the Japanese exchange Nikkei 225 dropped by 2.75% at end of trading, down 20% from its recent peak in July last year.
US indexes had the worst day of trading since the COVID-19 pandemic. Pic: Reuters
Trump holds trade deal talks – reports
It comes as a source told CNN that Mr Trump has been in discussions with Vietnamese, Indian and Israeli representatives to negotiate bespoke trade deals that could alleviate proposed tariffs on those countries before a deadline next week.
The source told the US broadcaster the talks were being held in advance of the reciprocal levies going into effect next week.
Vietnam faced one of the highest reciprocal tariffs announced by the US president this week, with 46% rates on imports. Israeli imports face a 17% rate, and Indian goods will be subject to 26% tariffs.
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Do Trump’s tariffs add up?
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China – hit with 34% tariffs on imported goods – has also announced it will issue its own levy of the same rate on US imports.
Mr Trump said China “played it wrong” and “panicked – the one thing they cannot afford to do” in another all-caps Truth Social post earlier on Friday.
Later, on Air Force One, the US president told reporters that “the beauty” of the tariffs is that they allow for negotiations, referencing talks with Chinese company ByteDance on the sale of social media app TikTok.
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Tariffs: Xi hits back at Trump
He said: “We have a situation with TikTok where China will probably say, ‘We’ll approve a deal, but will you do something on the tariffs?’
“The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have.”
World
Financial markets were always going to respond to Trump tariffs but they’re also battling with another problem
South Korea’s constitutional court has confirmed the dismissal of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached in December after declaring martial law.
His decision to send troops onto the streets led to the country’s worst political crisis in decades.
The court ruled to uphold the impeachment saying the conservative leader “violated his duty as commander-in-chief by mobilising troops” when he declared martial law.
The president was also said to have taken actions “beyond the powers provided in the constitution”.
Demonstrators stayed overnight near the constitutional court. Pic: AP
Supporters and opponents of the president gathered in their thousands in central Seoul as they awaited the ruling.
The 64-year-old shocked MPs, the public and international allies in early December when he declared martial law, meaning all existing laws regarding civilians were suspended in place of military law.
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The court was under heavy police security guard ahead of the announcement. Pic: AP
After suddenly declaring martial law, Mr Yoon sent hundreds of soldiers and police officers to the National Assembly.
He has argued that he sought to maintain order, but some senior military and police officers sent there have told hearings and investigators that Mr Yoon ordered them to drag out politicians to prevent an assembly vote on his decree.
His presidential powers were suspended when the opposition-dominated assembly voted to impeach him on 14 December, accusing him of rebellion.
The unanimous verdict to uphold parliament’s impeachment and remove Mr Yoon from office required the support of at least six of the court’s eight justices.
South Korea must hold a national election within two months to find a new leader.
Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main liberal opposition Democratic Party, is the early favourite to become the country’s next president, according to surveys.
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