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Ukraine might have thwarted Russian ambitions to subjugate the whole of the country, but it faces a Herculean task if it is to expel Russian forces from occupied territories completely.

Ukraine remains the David to Russia’s Goliath.

It cannot afford to be trapped in an attritional battle that it would struggle to win; instead, it has exploited drone technology to provide an asymmetric advantage.

Drones are low cost, widely available, and effective, but are relatively slow and thus easy to shoot down.

So why have they proven so effective for Ukraine?

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Ukraine’s drone attack explained

A drone is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) without any human pilot, crew, or passengers on board, and they are often remotely controlled; however, with the advent of AI, they are increasingly autonomous.

Drones rose to prominence in the post-9/11 era when long-endurance surveillance was required.

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Since then, rapid advances in satellite technology have driven down both the cost and weight of sensors, with obvious military benefits.

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Key areas where drones have given Ukraine the initiative

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Ukraine drone intact after chase

Ukraine’s battlefield intelligence is evolving at speed

Since the Second World War, battlefield surveillance has been a vital way to identify – and then target – enemy forces.

Balloons hoisted spotters high above the frontlines to help mortar crews zero in on their prey, to devastating effect.

Over a century later, tactical nano-drones are providing Ukraine with the same battlefield intelligence, with the added benefit of providing highly accurate target locations and indeed even laser guidance for precision munitions.

Despite Russian efforts to thwart Ukrainian drones, Ukrainian operators use their “downtime” to disassemble their drones, add extra capability, and update the software.

Their dedication means that, by dawn, they have an updated and even more deadly drone to field against the Russians.

This rate of innovation is unprecedented and is not emulated by the predictable and archaic Russian military.

A woman cries on the coffin of Ivan Yaroviy, a Ukrainian helicopter navigator in Poltava. Pic: AP
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A woman cries on the coffin of Ukrainian helicopter navigator, Ivan Yaroviy, in Poltava. Pic: AP

Ukrainian servicemen at the funeral of flight engineer Yuriy Anisimov. Pic: AP
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Ukrainian soldiers burying flight engineer Yuriy Anisimov in Poltava. Pic: AP

But, drones fly slowly, have very limited self-protection and are therefore vulnerable.

And, since their size and range limit payload, drones have traditionally been more of an irritant than decisive military weapons.

Although Ukraine cannot use Western-supplied weapons to attack Russian territory, Ukraine has leveraged online crowdfunding to help procure a wide range of commercially available drones.

When modified, these have proven very effective at degrading Russian logistics resupply lines, fuel depots and ammunition dumps, overwhelming defences with simultaneous attacks.

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A profound psychological impact for Ukraine’s underdogs

Strategically, Ukraine has also managed to use a blend of missiles and drones to attack targets deep inside Russian territory.

Whereas Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities have simply hardened Ukrainian resolve to defeat the Russian invader, Ukrainian attacks on Moscow have had a profound psychological impact on Muscovites – by undermining Vladimir Putin’s claim that he was forced to invade Ukraine to protect Russians – which he is failing to do.

Russia has robust air defence systems, but these are designed to combat limited numbers of ballistic missile attacks, not waves of drones.

Air defence missiles are ferociously expensive and missiles are of limited supply – a Patriot missile costs $4m which is over 1,000x more expensive than most of the drones – so in drone wars, quantity has a quality all of its own.

Russia’s conventional and predictable approach to warfare has enabled Ukraine to exploit technology and innovation to target the Black Sea Fleet, strategic Russian fighter and bomber bases far behind the frontlines and airports (including Moscow).

A satellite image shows the air base in Pskov. Pic: AP
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A satellite image shows the air base in Pskov. Pic: AP

Individually, these targets are not tactically significant, but collectively they have exposed Russian vulnerability and helped Ukraine counter Russia’s conventional military advantage.

Drones might not win the war, but they have provided a rare asymmetric advantage to the Ukraine underdogs.

However, it is not only Russia that is heavily reliant on legacy equipment and doctrine, and the West must adapt to innovate and exploit technology apace, to combat future asymmetric threats such as rogue states or terrorism.

Drone wars have moved from the realms of fiction into reality, with profound implications for global security.

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At least 20 dead and 150 injured after magnitude 6.3 earthquake in north Afghanistan

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At least 20 dead and 150 injured after magnitude 6.3 earthquake in north Afghanistan

At least 20 people have died after a magnitude 6.3 earthquake in Afghanistan, the Taliban has said.

The tremor was recorded near the city of Mazar-e Sharif, in the northern Balkh province, at around 12.59am on Monday (8.29pm in the UK).

The Taliban Health Ministry added that 320 were injured, while ministry spokesperson Sharfat Zaman said that the numbers of dead and injured might rise.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) has issued an orange alert on its system of quake impacts, and suggested that “significant casualties are likely and the disaster is potentially widespread”.

A rescuer works following an earthquake at an unidentified location in Afghanistan. Pic: Afghan Red Crescent / Reuters
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A rescuer works following an earthquake at an unidentified location in Afghanistan. Pic: Afghan Red Crescent / Reuters

Previous events at that alert level have required a regional or national level response, according to the USGS’s alert system.

Balkh province spokesperson Haji Zaid added that the earthquake destroyed part of the city’s holy shrine, known as the Blue Mosque.

Soldiers dig up debris after an earthquake in Mazar-e Sharif, northern Afghanistan. Pic: Haji Zaid
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Soldiers dig up debris after an earthquake in Mazar-e Sharif, northern Afghanistan. Pic: Haji Zaid

Damage to the Blue Mosque in Mazar-e Sharif. Pic: Haji Zaid
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Damage to the Blue Mosque in Mazar-e Sharif. Pic: Haji Zaid

The United Nations in Afghanistan said on X that it is on the ground assessing needs and delivering aid, and that: “We stand with the affected communities and will provide the necessary support.”

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Mazar-e Sharif is the fifth-largest city in Afghanistan, with a population of around 523,000.

Located on two major active fault lines, Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable to earthquakes: More than 1,400 people were killed and at least 3,250 others injured after a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hit the country’s eastern regions in September.

That tremor wiped out villages in the Mazar Dara valley, which Sky’s Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch visited in October.

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October: Boy recalls being rescued from quake – but losing his brother

In 2015, an earthquake struck northeastern Afghanistan, killing several hundred people in Afghanistan and nearby northern Pakistan.

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Four large earthquakes also struck in the Herat province in 2023, each magnitude 6.3. The Taliban said at the time that at least 2,445 people had died.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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Hurricane Melissa leaves 28 dead after tearing through Jamaica

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Hurricane Melissa leaves 28 dead after tearing through Jamaica

A total of 28 people have died following Hurricane Melissa’s rampage across Jamaica, the government has confirmed.

Melissa, one of the strongest storms on record to make landfall in the Caribbean, brought with it winds of up to 185mph when it hit the island earlier this week.

The Red Cross described it as a “disaster of unprecedented catastrophe”.

Melissa ravaged through Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba.

It weakened by the time it reached Cuba on Wednesday morning but still brought devastation – with houses collapsed and roads blocked.

A statement from the government of Jamaica said it was “deeply saddened to confirm 28 fatalities associated with the passage of Hurricane Melissa”.

It went on: “We extend heartfelt condolences to the families, friends, and communities mourning their loved ones.”

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The confirmation came as the first British repatriation flight was setting off from the island on Saturday evening local time.

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The flight, chartered by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, was for those “unable to leave Jamaica on commercial routes”.

Essential relief supplies are now rolling into some of the hardest hit areas.

Humanitarian aid has arrived and is waiting to be distributed. Pic: AP
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Humanitarian aid has arrived and is waiting to be distributed. Pic: AP

The UK government is mobilising an additional £5m in emergency humanitarian funding – on top of £2.5m announced earlier this week – to support the region’s recovery.

This new funding will enable the UK to send humanitarian supplies – including more than 3,000 shelter kits and over 1,500 solar-powered lanterns to help those whose homes have been damaged and those without power.

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Jamaica victims left shell-shocked

The UK is working with the World Food Programme and Red Cross, to ensure emergency relief reaches those who need it most.

At least 25 people died in the southern Haitian coastal town of Petit-Goave after the La Digue river burst its banks as a result of the hurricane, according to the town’s mayor Jean Bertrand Subreme.

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Ukrainian troops ‘start surrendering’ in key city but Kyiv says situation ‘dynamic’

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Ukrainian troops 'start surrendering' in key city but Kyiv says situation 'dynamic'

Ukrainian soldiers encircled by Russian forces in the key eastern city of Pokrovsk have started surrendering, the defence ministry in Moscow claims.

But Ukraine‘s military has pushed back on the report by the TASS state news agency, saying the situation is “difficult and dynamic”.

Kyiv has also claimed its positions in some districts of Pokrovsk have improved despite its city being infiltrated by Russian troops.

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Ukraine is increasing its number of assault troops in the area, the 7th Rapid Response Corps said on Facebook.

And Ukrainian troops are also working to cut Moscow’s military logistics routes, it added.

The Russian defence ministry also said its forces defeated a team of Ukrainian special forces that headed to Pokrovsk in a bid to prevent Russian forces from advancing further into the city.

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‘Footage of Ukrainian troops after surrendering’

It later posted videos of two Ukrainian troops who, it claimed, had surrendered.

The footage showed the men, one dressed in fatigues and the other in a dark green jacket, sat against a wall in a dark room, as they spoke of fierce fighting and encirclement by Russian forces.

The videos’ authenticity could not be independently verified, and there was no immediate public comment from Kyiv on the Russian ministry’s claims.

Ukrainian police officers on patrol in Pokrovsk. File pic: Reuters
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Ukrainian police officers on patrol in Pokrovsk. File pic: Reuters

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously acknowledged that some Russian units had infiltrated the city. But he maintained that Ukraine is tackling them.

He said Russia had deployed 170,000 troops in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk province, where Pokrovsk is located, in a major offensive to capture the city and claim a big battlefield victory.

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Multiple Russian missiles strike Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia

‘Operation to destroy enemy forces’

Ukraine’s army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Saturday the situation in Pokrovsk remained “hardest” for Ukrainian forces, who were trying to push Russian troops out.

But he insisted there was no encirclement or blockade as Moscow has claimed.

“A comprehensive operation to destroy and push out enemy forces from Pokrovsk is ongoing. The main burden lies on the shoulders of the units of the armed forces of Ukraine, particularly UAV operators and assault units,” Mr Syrskyi said.

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24 hours in the kill zone

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Why is Ukraine attacking Moscow? What’s behind Putin’s nuclear test?

Why is Pokrovsk important?

One of Moscow’s key aims has been to take all of Ukraine’s industrial heartland of coal-rich Donbas, which comprises of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Kyiv still controls about 10% of Donbas.

Capturing Pokrovsk, which Russian media has dubbed “the gateway to Donetsk”, and Kostiantynivka to its northeast, would give Moscow a platform to drive north towards the two biggest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in Donetsk – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

‘Key Russian fuel pipeline struck’

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military intelligence, known as HUR, has said its forces have hit an important fuel pipeline in the Moscow region that supplies the Russian army.

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Dramatic drone rescue in Ukraine’s kill zone

In a statement on Telegram, HUR said the operation late on Friday was a “serious blow” to Russia’s military logistics.

HUR said its forces struck the Koltsevoy pipeline, which is 250 miles long and supplies the Russian army with gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from refineries in Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod and Moscow.

The operation, which targeted infrastructure near Ramensky district, destroyed all three fuel lines, HUR said.

The pipeline was capable of transporting up to three million tonnes of jet fuel, 2.8 million tonnes of diesel and 1.6 million tonnes of gasoline annually, HUR said.

Russia ‘targets gas production site’

Also overnight, Russia launched an attack on a gas production site in Poltava, in central Ukraine.

A fire broke out, the local administration said, but no injuries were reported.

Kyiv condemns ‘nuclear terrorism’

Ukraine’s foreign ministry has condemned Russian strikes this week on substations powering some of its nuclear plants.

It accused Russia of carrying out “targeted strikes on such substations” which “bear the hallmarks of nuclear terrorism”.

Elsewhere, a civilian died and 15 more were injured on Saturday morning after Russia struck the Mykolaiv region in southern Ukraine with a ballistic Iskander missile, local official Vitaliy Kim said.

A child was among those hurt in the strike, he added.

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