Ukraine’s underdogs are outfoxing archaic Russia with drone warfare – but their raids won’t end the war

Published

2 years ago

September 2, 2023

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Ukraine might have thwarted Russian ambitions to subjugate the whole of the country, but it faces a Herculean task if it is to expel Russian forces from occupied territories completely.

Ukraine remains the David to Russia’s Goliath.

It cannot afford to be trapped in an attritional battle that it would struggle to win; instead, it has exploited drone technology to provide an asymmetric advantage.

Drones are low cost, widely available, and effective, but are relatively slow and thus easy to shoot down.

So why have they proven so effective for Ukraine?

A drone is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) without any human pilot, crew, or passengers on board, and they are often remotely controlled; however, with the advent of AI, they are increasingly autonomous.

Drones rose to prominence in the post-9/11 era when long-endurance surveillance was required.

Since then, rapid advances in satellite technology have driven down both the cost and weight of sensors, with obvious military benefits.

Ukraine’s battlefield intelligence is evolving at speed

Since the Second World War, battlefield surveillance has been a vital way to identify – and then target – enemy forces.

Balloons hoisted spotters high above the frontlines to help mortar crews zero in on their prey, to devastating effect.

Over a century later, tactical nano-drones are providing Ukraine with the same battlefield intelligence, with the added benefit of providing highly accurate target locations and indeed even laser guidance for precision munitions.

Despite Russian efforts to thwart Ukrainian drones, Ukrainian operators use their “downtime” to disassemble their drones, add extra capability, and update the software.

Their dedication means that, by dawn, they have an updated and even more deadly drone to field against the Russians.

This rate of innovation is unprecedented and is not emulated by the predictable and archaic Russian military.

But, drones fly slowly, have very limited self-protection and are therefore vulnerable.

And, since their size and range limit payload, drones have traditionally been more of an irritant than decisive military weapons.

Although Ukraine cannot use Western-supplied weapons to attack Russian territory, Ukraine has leveraged online crowdfunding to help procure a wide range of commercially available drones.

When modified, these have proven very effective at degrading Russian logistics resupply lines, fuel depots and ammunition dumps, overwhelming defences with simultaneous attacks.

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A profound psychological impact for Ukraine’s underdogs

Strategically, Ukraine has also managed to use a blend of missiles and drones to attack targets deep inside Russian territory.

Whereas Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities have simply hardened Ukrainian resolve to defeat the Russian invader, Ukrainian attacks on Moscow have had a profound psychological impact on Muscovites – by undermining Vladimir Putin’s claim that he was forced to invade Ukraine to protect Russians – which he is failing to do.

Russia has robust air defence systems, but these are designed to combat limited numbers of ballistic missile attacks, not waves of drones.

Air defence missiles are ferociously expensive and missiles are of limited supply – a Patriot missile costs $4m which is over 1,000x more expensive than most of the drones – so in drone wars, quantity has a quality all of its own.

Russia’s conventional and predictable approach to warfare has enabled Ukraine to exploit technology and innovation to target the Black Sea Fleet, strategic Russian fighter and bomber bases far behind the frontlines and airports (including Moscow).

Individually, these targets are not tactically significant, but collectively they have exposed Russian vulnerability and helped Ukraine counter Russia’s conventional military advantage.

Drones might not win the war, but they have provided a rare asymmetric advantage to the Ukraine underdogs.

However, it is not only Russia that is heavily reliant on legacy equipment and doctrine, and the West must adapt to innovate and exploit technology apace, to combat future asymmetric threats such as rogue states or terrorism.

Drone wars have moved from the realms of fiction into reality, with profound implications for global security.

World

Trump’s USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths, report warns

Published

2 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Trump's USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths, report warns

Around 14 million people could die across the world over the next five years because of cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID), researchers have warned.

Children under five are expected to make up around a third (4.5 million) of the mortalities, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal.

Estimates showed that “unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030”.

“Beyond causing millions of avoidable deaths – particularly among the most vulnerable – these cuts risk reversing decades of progress in health and socioeconomic development in LMICs [low and middle-income countries],” the report said.

USAID programmes have prevented the deaths of more than 91 million people, around a third of them among children, the study suggests.

The agency’s work has been linked to a 65% fall in deaths from HIV/AIDS, or 25.5 million people.

Eight million deaths from malaria, more than half the total, around 11 million from diarrheal diseases and nearly five million from tuberculosis (TB), have also been prevented.

USAID has been vital in improving global health, “especially in LMICs, particularly African nations,” according to the report.

Established in 1961, the agency was tasked with providing humanitarian assistance and helping economic growth in developing countries, especially those deemed strategic to Washington.

But the Trump administration has made little secret of its antipathy towards the agency, which became an early victim of cuts carried out by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – formerly led by Elon Musk – in what the US government said was part of a broader plan to remove wasteful spending.

In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said more than 80% of USAID schemes had been closed following a six-week review, leaving around 1,000 active.

The US is the world’s largest humanitarian aid donor, providing around $61bn (£44bn) in foreign assistance last year, according to government data, or at least 38% of the total, and USAID is the world’s leading donor for humanitarian and development aid, the report said.

Between 2017 and 2020, the agency responded to more than 240 natural disasters and crises worldwide – and in 2016 it sent food assistance to more than 53 million people across 47 countries.

The study assessed all-age and all-cause mortality rates in 133 countries and territories, including all those classified as low and middle-income, supported by USAID from 2001 to 2021.

World

Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended amid outrage over leaked phone call

Published

5 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended amid outrage over leaked phone call

Thailand’s prime minister has been suspended after a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician caused outrage.

An ethics investigation into Paetongtarn Shinawatra is under way and she could end up being dismissed.

The country’s constitutional court took up a petition from 36 senators, who claimed dishonesty and a breach of ethical standards, and voted 7 to 2 to suspend her.

The prime minister’s call with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, sparked public protests after she tried to appease him and criticised a Thai army commander – a taboo move in a country where the military is extremely influential.

Ms Shinawatra was trying to defuse mounting tensions at the border – which in May resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier.

Thousands of conservative, nationalist protesters held a demo in Bangkok on Saturday to urge her to step down.

Her party is clinging on to power after another group withdrew from their alliance a few weeks ago over the phone call. Calls for a no-confidence vote are likely.

Deputy prime minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit will take over temporarily while the court looks into the case.

The 38-year-old prime minister – Thailand‘s youngest ever leader – has 15 days to respond to the probe. She has apologised and said her approach in the call was a negotiating tactic.

The popularity of her government has slumped recently, with an opinion poll showing an approval rating of 9.2%, down from 30.9% in March.

Ms Shinawatra comes from a wealthy dynasty synonymous with Thai politics.

Her father Thaksin Shinawatra – a former Manchester City owner – and aunt Yingluck Shinawatra served as prime minister before her – in the early to mid 2000s – and their time in office also ended ignominiously amid corruption charges and military coups.

World

Benjamin Netanyahu to meet Donald Trump next week amid calls for Gaza ceasefire

Published

11 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Benjamin Netanyahu to meet Donald Trump next week amid calls for Gaza ceasefire

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be meeting Donald Trump next Monday, according to US officials.

The visit on 7 July comes after Mr Trump suggested it was possible a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached within a week.

On Sunday, he wrote on social media: “MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!”

At least 60 people killed across Gaza on Monday, in what turned out to be some of the heaviest attacks in weeks.

According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 56,500 people have been killed in the 20-month war.

The visit by Mr Netanyahu to Washington has not been formally announced and the officials who said it would be going ahead spoke on condition of anonymity.

An Israeli official in Washington also confirmed the meeting next Monday.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was in constant communication with the Israeli government.

She said Mr Trump viewed ending the war in Gaza and returning remaining hostages held by Hamas as a top priority.

The war in Gaza broke out in retaliation for Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attacks on southern Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw a further 250 taken hostage.

An eight-week ceasefire was reached in the final days of Joe Biden’s US presidency, but Israel resumed the war in March after trying to get Hamas to accept new terms on next steps.

Talks between Israel and Hamas have stalled over whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire.