Inside the remaking of LSU athletics — and why Brian Kelly is on deck
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Chris Low
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Chris Low
ESPN Senior Writer
- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of the University of Tennessee
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M.A. Voepel
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M.A. Voepel
ESPN.com
- M.A. Voepel covers the WNBA, women’s college basketball, and other college sports for espnW. Voepel began covering women’s basketball in 1984, and has been with ESPN since 1996.
BATON ROUGE, La. — Brian Kelly was already keenly aware that he and his LSU football team were on deck.
LSU’s baseball team, led by coach Jay Johnson, had captured the national championship in June, a little more than two months after Kim Mulkey and her women’s basketball team won the NCAA tournament in April. A pattern clearly had been set.
But on a recent scorching summer day in Baton Rouge, Kelly could only chuckle when told of a playful but confident comment made by longtime football staffer Ya’el Lofton while showing a visitor into Kelly’s office. Lofton is in her 32nd year at LSU with her seventh head coach. Kelly is the fourth for whom she’s served as executive assistant. The other three — Ed Orgeron, Les Miles and Nick Saban — all won national championships.
“Coach Kelly will win my fourth this year, and then I can retire,” Lofton said before Kelly was within earshot.
Informed of Lofton’s prediction as he took a seat, Kelly shook his head with amusement.
“So she’s already putting me on the clock,” he said. “But, hey, welcome to LSU. That’s why I’m here.”
Kelly has had a front-row seat to a recurring national championship parade on LSU’s campus, which can be traced back to a seven-month stretch in 2021 when athletic director Scott Woodward made three coaching hires that have resonated on the Bayou.
• April 25, 2021: Woodward hired Mulkey, who in her second season with LSU women’s basketball led the Tigers to the program’s first national championship.
• June 25, 2021: Woodward hired Johnson, who in his second season led the Tigers’ baseball team to their seventh national title and first since 2009.
• Nov. 29, 2021: Woodward hired Kelly, who in his first season led LSU to a 10-4 record, an SEC championship game appearance and a Citrus Bowl victory.
With a lofty precedent set by his coaching colleagues, Kelly enters his second season at LSU with his team ranked No. 5 in the country as it opens the 2023 campaign against No. 8 Florida State on Sunday night (7:30 ET, ABC) in Orlando, Florida.
“Hey, I get it,” Kelly said. “People may talk about pressure to win a national title when you look at what Kim did and what Jay did in their second seasons. But I look at it as more of that’s what you’re supposed to do at LSU. We’re all in this together, and the standard has been set.”
Much of the work to continue that standard was done by Woodward, who was born and raised in Baton Rouge and is an LSU graduate.
“When I talk to Scott, you feel like you’re sitting down at the dinner table having a conversation with a family member,” Mulkey said. “There’s nothing pretentious about him. He doesn’t make anyone uncomfortable because he’s your boss. This is his school, he went here. He’s the athletic director at the flagship university of our state, and he wants everybody here to be successful.”
Woodward got involved in athletic administration at LSU in 2000 and initially worked on the university side as director of external affairs. He worked closely with Saban after Saban was hired at LSU in 2000. Later, Woodward became AD at Washington, where he hired football coach Chris Petersen away from Boise State. Then at Texas A&M, Woodward lured Jimbo Fisher from Florida State in football and Buzz Williams from Virginia Tech in men’s basketball.
He returned to LSU in 2019 and has gone 3-for-3 in hiring Mulkey, who won three NCAA titles coaching at Baylor; Johnson, who led Arizona to a Pac-12 title and CWS appearance in 2021; and Kelly, who won 10 or more games in six of his last seven seasons at Notre Dame.
Clearly Woodward has never been shy about swinging for the fences when hiring coaches.
“Sometimes, you hit it just right, and the timing is just right. There is no algorithm to it,” Woodward said. “I’ve always been, ‘Why not take a shot?’ And when you’re at LSU, that takes on even more meaning when you look at everything that’s in place here to win championships.”
WOODWARD SAID COMMON denominators for Kelly, Mulkey and Johnson included their intelligence and organizational skills but pointed out all three are from different parts of the country and have their own coaching styles.
Mulkey is from tiny Tickfaw, Louisiana, about 50 miles east of Baton Rouge. After playing and coaching at Louisiana Tech, she spent 21 years at Baylor, winning national championships as a player, assistant coach and head coach along the way. Her son, Kramer, played baseball at LSU.
Johnson is from Oroville, California, 70 miles north of Sacramento, and one of his inspirations was Skip Bertman, the legendary LSU baseball coach who won five NCAA titles before becoming the school’s AD.
Perhaps the most surprising hire, though, was Kelly, a Boston-area native who had just built his dream home in South Bend, almost literally in the shadow of Notre Dame’s Golden Dome, when Woodward came calling.
As the season wound down, three marquee jobs already were open — LSU, USC and Florida. Competition for filling them would be fierce and rumors were flying. Because of his friendship with Woodward and a previous stint at LSU as Saban’s offensive coordinator, Fisher was the hot name initially at LSU and he was a serious target. But with a new contract extension at Texas A&M, Fisher wasn’t going anywhere.
Woodward had another idea anyway. Staying true to his “why not take a shot?” approach, he zeroed in on Kelly.
The thought of Kelly down on the Bayou may have seemed far-fetched at first, including to Kelly himself.
“Uhmm, not interested,” Kelly told his agent, Trace Armstrong, when the subject was first broached.
Armstrong had helped Woodward with one of his contracts at LSU, so the 15-year NFL veteran-turned-agent was close to both Kelly and Woodward. Armstrong approached Kelly a second time and asked if he would at least talk to LSU as a favor to him.
At that point, Kelly hadn’t even told his wife about LSU’s overtures. But he agreed to talk with Woodward the final week of the regular season.
“I guess I thought I was doing Trace a favor, but when we were finished, I said, ‘I have to call my wife,'” Kelly recalled. “I told her, ‘Honey, we have something to talk about.'”
Woodward and Kelly had a deal, although they never met in person.
“I knew what I was getting,” said Woodward, who had interviewed Kelly for the Washington job when he was at Cincinnati. “There was no need for us to meet.”
Kelly said he could have been involved with the USC and Florida jobs, and while at Notre Dame, he passed on opportunities at both Tennessee and Texas, among others. Prior to Kelly’s hiring at LSU, there were reports that Lincoln Riley was also seriously in play. But sources told ESPN that Woodward never considered Riley for the job.
As Kelly listened to Woodward’s pitch, he knew that the time was right for him to make a move and that LSU was the right fit for him. He signed a 10-year, $95 million deal and became the first sitting head coach at Notre Dame to leave for a different job on his own volition in more than 100 years.
“I loved my time at Notre Dame. I have nothing but great memories there,” Kelly said. “But the whole landscape there is different than it is here. It just is. There are priorities at Notre Dame. The architectural building needed to get built first. They ain’t building the architectural building here first. We’re building the athletic training facility first, [and] we’re in the midst of a $22 million addition to our athletic training facility.
“It’s something I said we needed, and we went and immediately raised the money.”
MULKEY KNEW OF Woodward — who graduated from high school in 1981, a year after Mulkey — but had not met him until she was set to take the LSU job. Nikki Fargas — LSU’s women’s basketball coach from 2011 to 2021 — had left to become president of the WNBA’s Las Vegas Aces. Mulkey had great success at Baylor, but because it was LSU calling, she felt the time was right for one last big career move.
“I had a 10-minute — if that long — conversation with Scott when I was hired,” Mulkey said. “He introduced himself, and he said, ‘I feel like we should know each other, we know so many mutual friends.’
“We didn’t have to talk long. I didn’t need to come in and look around. All I said was, ‘Pay me what I’m making at Baylor, take care of my assistant coaches and I’m ready to come back home.'”
Home for Johnson had always been out West with coaching stops at Nevada, San Diego and Point Loma Nazarene (his alma mater) before landing at Arizona in 2016. Johnson, whose first head-coaching job at NAIA Point Loma Nazarene came when he was just 27, played three sports in high school. His father, Jerry, was a highly successful high school track and field coach whose teams went unbeaten for five straight years in varsity dual meets. Johnson got the coaching genes naturally, although he thought at one point he was destined for stardom as a football player.
“I thought I was going to win the Heisman Trophy as a good high school running back, but then I realized 5-7 guys weren’t running around in the SEC,” Johnson joked. “Being a major league baseball player would have been like going to the moon for a kid growing up where I did. But I always loved college baseball, and with Coach Bertman doing what he was doing, the College World Series seemed like a realistic goal.”
So, as a seventh-grader, Johnson would occasionally sport an LSU baseball shirt.
“And now, to be coaching here at LSU, alongside coaches the caliber of Brian Kelly and Kim Mulkey, is humbling,” Johnson said. “I always viewed Arizona as the best job in the country for me personally, with it being a West Coast job. I would only leave for the best job in the country, and I viewed LSU as the best job in the country.”
Mulkey mentioned another Woodward hire in late 2021. Former LSU volleyball player Tonya Johnson took over that program after being a top assistant/recruiting coordinator for national powerhouse Texas. As a player, Johnson led LSU to the 1990 volleyball Final Four. Last year in her first season as coach, she led the Tigers to their first NCAA tournament victory since 2014.
“So Scott has put together quite an athletic program with the people he’s hired,” Mulkey said, adding that when it comes to luring top coaches away from established programs, “obviously, there’s no secret — you’ve got to start by talking about money. But there’s also the SEC; particularly in football, the SEC sells itself.”
That was a major selling point for Kelly — the opportunity to prove he could win in the SEC, which has produced 13 of the last 17 national champions in football. And over the last 20 years, only Alabama (six) has won more national championships than LSU (three).
“When you grow up in Boston, which was a pro town, you’re always measured by how you play at the highest level,” Kelly said. “And to me, the SEC was always the preeminent league, so that had a lot to do with it for me.”
Kelly’s Notre Dame teams twice lost to Alabama in the postseason, once in the 2013 BCS national championship game (a 42-14 beatdown) and again in the 2020 College Football Playoff semifinal (a 31-14 loss). Kelly dismisses the notion that he left Notre Dame because of those two losses.
“That second time, we played an outstanding Alabama team as well as anybody played them that year,” Kelly said. “My take after the game was, ‘Yeah, we lost again, but let’s keep it in perspective. That team killed everybody.’
“But it had zero bearing on me leaving Notre Dame. What it did is it motivated me to want more for our student-athletes, to say, ‘This is what we need, and if we get these things, we can do this.’ That’s where it motivated me, and from a timing standpoint, we couldn’t deliver at the same time. Then this LSU opportunity opened up that had the things I was looking for, and I didn’t have to wait for them.”
Everyone knows football drives the financial engine, but there is a sense of camaraderie in the LSU athletic department that Mulkey said makes for an atmosphere she enjoys. She appreciates that Woodward always answers calls or texts.
Once she called him, not realizing he was meeting with Kelly. Woodward gave his phone to Kelly to answer, and he jokingly greeted Mulkey with, “Hey, why are you bothering our boss?”
“That’s relationships, that’s fun, that’s how it should be,” Mulkey said. “I just like that kind of leadership.”
One of Kelly’s biggest moments in his first season at LSU was the 32-31 overtime upset of No. 6 Alabama on Nov. 5. Asked if she was at Tiger Stadium for the game, Mulkey said, “Heck, yeah, I was — going crazy,” and added it was a perfect day for her hoops recruits to be visiting.
Johnson added: “There’s nothing like Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night, and I loved being there and feeling the energy of that crowd and seeing us beat Alabama. The more success we all have here, the more it’s going to help us individually, and that support is genuine.”
Mulkey was already a longtime fan of LSU baseball, visiting often to watch her son Kramer play there. After celebrating with her team at the women’s Final Four in Dallas in April, Mulkey was in Omaha, Nebraska, in June to watch the LSU baseball team triumph at the College World Series.
She also has taken a few swings against Johnson’s pitching; the two did an LSU promotional video where she went into the batting cage. Mulkey, who was a Little League baseball standout before her hoops stardom, also has been a guest coach during the baseball team’s Purple and Gold game in the fall.
“She literally hit five line drives in a row, a couple right back at me at the screen,” Johnson said with a laugh.
With all the hardware LSU has collected over the last few months, Kelly and his football team are not about to get sidetracked. They understand the importance of getting off to a better start than they did a year ago, when the Tigers lost their season opener to Florida State and were blown out at home five weeks later by Tennessee. Kelly has preached the importance of consistency all offseason as the next step in his program’s development.
“We want to follow up and win a national championship of our own,” LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels said. “But you can’t do it by talking about it. You’ve got to go out there and do it every week.”
As they say in these parts, it’s Geaux time.
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Bill Connelly
Week 1 had headliners for the casuals. Week 2 had rivalry games and loads of thrillers for the hardcores. In Week 3, we attempt to split the difference. This week gives us high-stakes helmet games (Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Georgia-Tennessee, Florida-LSU) and rivalry games both bitter (Pitt-West Virginia) and, sometimes, silly (Ole Miss-Arkansas). But most of all, it gives us PANIC.
Notre Dame is 0-1 and won’t have a ton of quality win opportunities to overcome a potential 0-2 start. Clemson and Georgia haven’t looked the part yet and could be severely punished if they don’t shift into gear. Supposed Big 12 favorites Arizona State and Kansas State are a combined 2-3 and can’t wait much longer to turn into the teams they were supposed to be. And both Florida and Virginia Tech played their coaches onto incredibly hot seats with jarring second-half collapses last week. So many fan bases are either fuming or about to be.
The first two weeks were fun in different ways. Now it’s time to get anxious. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 3.
All times are Eastern, and all games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Jump to a panic tier:
Hot seat | Time to look good
CFP hopefuls | Rivalries | Facing an upstart
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Week 3 playlist | Small school showcase
Hot seat panic
Between Nov. 16 and last Saturday, Florida went 5-0, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in successive weeks, allowing just 10.4 points per game and, presumably, playing head coach Billy Napier off of the hot seat.
Then the Gators lost to USF. They settled for field goals early and gave up just enough big plays (and horrid penalties) late to lose 18-16. It happened the way a lot of upsets happen, and USF might turn out to be an awesome team. But Florida now faces an absurd run featuring trips to No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M, plus a visit from No. 7 Texas, in the next month. Napier went from reasonably safe to all but done in a heartbeat.
He’s not alone, at least. Starting the season against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech got outscored by a combined 48-3 in two horrendous second halves. The Hokies have plummeted to 74th in SP+. Unlike Florida, they have a rebound opportunity with home games against Old Dominion and Wofford, but ODU has been awfully interesting to start the season.
First things first: If LSU had played USF instead of Louisiana Tech last week, the Tigers could have been in trouble too. The LSU offense no-showed, averaging just 4.9 yards per play, and with the run game struggling (as it did for much of 2024), quarterback Garrett Nussmeier made some shaky decisions, taking three sacks with a pick and averaging a dire 4.8 yards per dropback. If Florida responds well to an angry week in Gainesville, don’t be surprised if we get an upset.
Until we see Florida’s response, however, nothing else matters. Quarterback DJ Lagway is still kicking off rust after an injury-plagued offseason and is averaging just 9.7 yards per completion; the Florida run defense could very well dominate, but it’s the pass defense that matters against LSU, and the Gators rank just 91st in yards allowed per dropback. After games against Long Island and USF, that’s pretty foreboding, no matter how iffy Nussmeier looked last week.
Current line: LSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.0
I don’t pretend to be a body language expert, but when Vanderbilt scored to start the second half against Virginia Tech last week, the Hokies’ offense had just about the worst body language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the field. It was bad enough that I actually noticed it and made a mental note, and it happened about right here on the game’s win probability chart.
The Hokies offense didn’t score another point, and the Hokies defense didn’t make another stop. Tech will probably get back on track this week, but Old Dominion landed some solid punches early against Indiana in Week 1 and has overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 46.4 points in its first two games. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is making big plays with his arm and legs, and if the Monarchs can go up early, things could get very, very awkward at Lane Stadium.
Current line: Hokies -6.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.0 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.8
‘It’s time to look like you were supposed to look’ panic
Georgia and South Carolina are unbeaten, and Clemson has only lost to the No. 3 team in the country. Arizona State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State last week but could obviously still win the Big 12. All four of these teams were in the preseason top 15, and three still are. If they start looking like the teams they were supposed to be, they’ll all have good seasons with solid playoff chances.
If they don’t turn it on this week, however, things will get very complicated. They’ve combined to underachieve against SP+ projections by an average of 10.4 points per game. Georgia has barely made any big plays, Clemson’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, and South Carolina is 112th in points per drive and has been bailed out by punt returns and defensive touchdowns. Arizona State hasn’t been able to throw or defend the pass. On Saturday, all four teams play opponents that could absolutely beat them if they don’t find their respective A-games.
Georgia sleepwalked through a 28-6 win over Austin Peay last week on a disjointed, stormy afternoon in Athens. The Bulldogs had more turnovers (two) than 20-yard gains (one), and while APSU looks like an awfully strong FCS team, this was still one of Georgia’s most flawed performances in quite a while.
Does that matter? Georgia basically treats the season like an NFL regular season, knowing it’s talented enough to avoid any real missteps and aiming to peak in December. If the Dawgs flip the switch and roll over Tennessee, it won’t surprise a single soul in Neyland Stadium. They’ve won eight straight in the series, after all, and have won in their past four trips to Knoxville by an average of 41-10. But it’s hard to have much confidence in a Georgia offense that showed next to no explosiveness against Marshall and APSU.
And it’s not as if the offense hasn’t tried. Gunner Stockton has thrown seven passes at least 20 yards downfield, but he has completed just one. Granted, he has completed 76% of all his other passes, and Georgia has been pretty efficient. But the big-play spigot needs to open pretty quickly.
New Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has overseen plenty of big plays to date, going 39-for-59 for 535 yards, five TDs, no interceptions and no sacks. He has benefited from a strong run game, however, and he might not be able to lean on that Saturday: Georgia has allowed just 2.2 yards per carry (not including sacks), with linebackers Gabe Harris Jr. and Raylen Wilson flying to the ball. Tennessee could find itself behind schedule pretty frequently, and like Stockton, Aguilar will face his biggest test of the season by far.
Current line: Dawgs -3.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 1.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 0.3
We’re working with tiny samples, but the difference between preseason expectations and early-season quarterback production has been dramatic: The top five QBs on the preseason Heisman odds lists are currently 35th (Garrett Nussmeier), 56th (Arch Manning), 77th (Drew Allar), 82nd (LaNorris Sellers) and 104th (Cade Klubnik) in Total QBR.
For younger players like Manning and Sellers, a slow start might make sense. But Klubnik was supposed to be the high-floor veteran who allowed Clemson to benefit from everyone else’s inexperience. With unproven running backs and an already banged up O-line, however, he has been a shadow of his 2024 self.
After games against one of the best (LSU) and worst (Troy) defenses on the schedule, Klubnik’s stats are down across the board. He’s getting blitzed constantly, he’s providing no threat with his legs, and Clemson’s passing success rate has plummeted from 37th to 105th. Either that changes now, or Clemson’s 2025 goals start to fall apart. A loss Saturday would almost clinch that the Tigers have to win out to reach the College Football Playoff.
Georgia Tech is 2-0, with a defense that has overachieved twice against SP+ projections and an offense that was nearly perfect last week against Gardner-Webb despite forever-injured quarterback Haynes King sitting out. King should be good (enough) to go Saturday, and though the Clemson defense could disrupt the Tech line of scrimmage, the Yellow Jackets still might score enough to win if Clemson’s offense doesn’t start looking like it was supposed to look.
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.3
First things first: If Vicari Swain wants to make a Heisman push by doing stuff like this all season, I’m game.
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House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
Swain has scored on three of five punt returns in 2025, and it has created a strange balance: Including a fumble return score, South Carolina’s defense and special teams have scored as many touchdowns (four) as its offense. The Gamecocks rank 108th in offensive success rate, and LaNorris Sellers is taking even more sacks (12.0% of dropbacks) with less deep-ball payoff.
Vanderbilt has, without question, been the better of these two teams thus far. The Commodores beat Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg (compared to South Carolina’s 13-point, punt return-aided win on a neutral field), and they rank ninth in yards per dropback (10.2) and sixth in yards allowed per dropback (3.1). The Commodores scored more TDs in the second half against Virginia Tech (five) than the Gamecock offense has managed in four halves.
We don’t draw permanent conclusions after two games, but either South Carolina’s offense establishes a rhythm Saturday or the Gamecocks begin a very humbling stretch. They’re already projected underdogs in four of their next six games. Lose this one as a favorite, and you can probably kiss playoff hopes goodbye.
Current line: SC -3.5 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.5 | FPI projection: SC by 4.0
Last year, Arizona State survived a number of early close calls, then looked spectacular late. But the god of close games is fickle, and the Sun Devils dropped a thriller in Starkville last week.
They could obviously still reach the CFP by winning the Big 12, but with games against Baylor, TCU, Utah and Texas Tech on the horizon, they must start looking the part, and on Saturday night, they face an explosive Texas State team that nearly took them down last year. Bobcats backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jenkins are averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. are averaging 20.8 yards per catch.
ASU should run the ball well against a shaky Texas State defensive front, but Sam Leavitt — currently 92nd in Total QBR with a 57% completion rate, three INTs and four sacks — has somehow become even more reliant on one-man receiving corps Jordyn Tyson, and the ASU secondary ranks 85th in yards allowed per dropback. ASU nearly overcame a terrible start in Starkville, but if TXST’s offense gets rolling early like Mississippi State’s did, it might never slow down.
Current line: ASU -18.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 11.1 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3
‘Probably don’t want to lose if you have CFP hopes’ panic
We can’t call many Week 3 games true must-wins in the CFP era, but Notre Dame is 0-1, Alabama has already laid one egg, and preseason Big 12 contender Kansas State is 1-2. If these three games aren’t must-win, they’re made of a pretty must-win-like substance.
Notre Dame gave us a pretty conflicting impression in Week 1’s narrow loss at Miami. Quarterback CJ Carr was decent but unspectacular in his debut start, while the defense limited Miami’s big-play potential but allowed a 49% success rate, which means it currently ranks 126th in that category. The offensive and defensive lines performed worse than expected, and the run game was first underwhelming and then forgotten.
The Irish had a week off to prepare for a strong Texas A&M team that has underachieved a hair because of defensive breakdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has furthered his brand of nearly mistake-free ball (zero INTs and one sack in 74 dropbacks), and running backs Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II are averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The defense has knocked opponents off-schedule well, but it has indeed been hit by eight gains of 20-plus yards.
The Aggies scored 40-something and allowed 20-something against both UTSA and Utah State. Notre Dame isn’t much of a “track meets” kind of team, and Carr threw almost all of his passes close to the line of scrimmage against Miami. But he connected on both of his long passes. Might the Irish get aggressive and test A&M’s glitchiness?
It’s easy to see this game becoming one of trench warfare, though random chunk plays could tell the tale. One way or another, the Irish really do need a win here. Even if they were to lose and then win out to finish 10-2 — not a given considering how good future opponents like USC and Arkansas have looked thus far — their résumé might feature only one or two wins over ranked teams, and they could find themselves at the bottom of a pile of 10-2 teams. That’s really not where you want to be.
Current line: Irish -6.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 2.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.6
In 2003, Kansas State suffered an early three-game losing streak, then won its first Big 12 title two months later. You can overcome a slow start, but K-State has already almost run out of runway. The Wildcats have dropped three-point heartbreakers to Iowa State (excusable) and Army (less so) and barely beat North Dakota in between.
The run game has been dreadful without injured star Dylan Edwards — he is cleared to play Friday — and while quarterback Avery Johnson has been decent, only opponents are making big plays: 24% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (124th nationally).
Arizona, on the other hand, has been spectacular, overachieving against SP+ projections by a combined 34.0 points and playing like 2024’s ridiculously disappointing campaign never happened. Noah Fifita is averaging nearly 18 yards per completion, and the defense has picked off five passes while allowing just two completions over 12 yards.
Once again: We don’t draw conclusions after two weeks, but Arizona has performed infinitely better than K-State so far. If that continues Friday night, K-State shifts to just trying to go 6-6 and Arizona announces itself as a Big 12 contender.
Current line: K-State -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 2.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.6
Is it a stretch to put Alabama in this section when the Crimson Tide are three-touchdown favorites? Probably. But I wanted to highlight that the Crimson Tide have been maybe the single-most volatile team in the country through two weeks, first underachieving against SP+ projections by 28.3 points in a dismally unprepared loss to Florida State, then winning nearly every play and overachieving by 41.4 points in a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
Wisconsin might not be amazing this year, but the Badgers are closer to FSU than ULM, at least on defense. The Badgers have allowed one drive over 50 yards in two games — yes, against Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, but still — and they’ve created serious havoc, ranking fourth in sack rate and 15th in stuff rate. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been efficient filling in for the injured Billy Edwards Jr., but the Wisconsin offense probably won’t threaten Bama much. The defense will force the Tide to put in a shift, however, and prove that last week’s performance was far closer to what we should expect from Bama moving forward.
Current line: Bama -21.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 15.7
‘This rivalry is full of devastating losses’ panic
The Backyard Brawl is pretty in-your-face about how awesome and wild it is. I mean, “Brawl” is right there in the title. It’s loud and brash enough that you have almost no choice but to think, “Tell me again why we aren’t playing this game every year?” about once per quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s return to WVU has brought a wave of sentimentality … and memories of 2007, when Pitt scored one of the most devastating rivalry upsets of all time.
(No, but seriously, tell me again why we’re not playing this game every year?)
Arkansas-Ole Miss, meanwhile, doesn’t really even have a name and wasn’t played annually until the 1980s. You can probably find plenty of Razorbacks and Rebels fans who don’t even consider this a true rivalry. Fine. But in the past 14 years alone, this game has produced scores of 53-52, 52-51, 38-37, 37-33, 34-30 and 30-27. There aren’t many games I look forward to more, and I can call it whatever I want.
WVU’s Week 2 loss to Ohio — and the subsequent loss of running back Jahiem White to season-ending injury — might have lowered the stakes here, but Milan Puskar Stadium will be humming all the same. Pitt has come out of the gate firing, beating Duquesne and Central Michigan by a combined 106-26 with an explosive offense and dominant run defense. The WVU defense has been better than I expected, though, and it will take only a couple of turnovers to flip this one in the home team’s favor.
Current line: Pitt -7.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 4.5 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.2
Ole Miss survived one pain-in-the-butt matchup, exacting a bit of 2024 revenge with a 30-23 win over Kentucky last week. Quarterback Austin Simmons is establishing his footing, the secondary looks great, and the Rebels are projected favorites in all but one remaining game. We could be watching a playoff plan come together, but a trio of home games against Arkansas, Tulane and LSU in the next three weeks could provide any number of plot twists.
Arkansas is up to 21st in SP+ following two cupcake wins (Hogs 108, Alabama A&M and Arkansas State 21). Taylen Green is averaging nearly 10 yards per dropback and 13 yards per (non-sack) carry. But the Razorbacks were in the top 30 last September, too, before things went off the rails. If they have staying power this time, they could deliver us another very silly Rebs-Hogs game.
Current line: Rebels -6.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.6
‘Don’t want the in-state upstart to ruin our great start’ panic
If you don’t knock USF out early, you will pay for it. Boise State drove into Bulls territory on four of its first six possessions but turned the ball over twice, scored once and eventually got done in by a big-play deluge in a 34-7 loss. Florida carved up a bend-don’t-break defense early but settled for three field goals, then threw an interception in its next trip across the 50. Given enough opportunities, USF hit on a couple of chunk plays and stole an 18-16 win.
USF is allowing opponents to win the efficiency battle this year but is preventing big plays and eventually making lots of its own. This formula has prompted a pair of ranked wins.
Miami’s offense is wonderfully efficient. Through two games, including one against Notre Dame, the Hurricanes are 15th in rushing success rate and ninth in passing success rate. Carson Beck‘s arm and the legs of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown are keeping them on schedule beautifully, and they have a No. 5 ranking to show for it. They haven’t made a ton of big plays, though, and the defense has given up gains of 20-plus yards on 5.5% of snaps (70th nationally). Surely the USF formula isn’t going to work again, right?
Current line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 14.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 6.0
Week 3 chaos superfecta
We are unstoppable! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number, and thanks to USF’s upset of Florida, we’re two-for-two on the season after going 10-for-14 in 2024.
What’s better than two-for-two? Three-for-three! Let’s take down another ranked team. SP+ says there’s only a 48% chance that No. 5 Miami (81% vs. USF), No. 17 Ole Miss (74% vs. Arkansas), No. 19 Alabama (86% vs. Wisconsin) and No. 24 Auburn (90% vs. South Alabama) all win. Adjust your chaos meters accordingly.
Week 3 playlist
Here are some more, less panicky games you should pay attention to if you want to get the most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Colorado at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Houston has allowed nine total points and 3.0 yards per play in two games, and Colorado is evidently trying to figure out which of three different quarterbacks is the way forward. The Buffaloes are projected favorites in only two more games this season, so now would be a good time to kick into gear.
Current line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 3.3 | FPI projection: Houston by 1.9
Early Saturday
No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern (noon, Fox). Northwestern has defended the pass well this year, but (A) Oregon’s passing game is an upgrade over those of Tulane and Western Illinois, and (B) NU hasn’t really done anything else well. Oregon has done everything well thus far. This one will need some serious upset magic to be interesting in the second half. (But hey, at least Northwestern’s glorious and temporary Lake Michigan stadium will get plenty of screen time.)
Current line: Ducks -28.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 27.1 | FPI projection: Ducks by 23.1
No. 13 Oklahoma at Temple (noon, ESPN2). Only Oregon, USF and (in one game) TCU have overachieved against SP+ projections more than Temple thus far; coach K.C. Keeler is making an immediate impact in Philadelphia, and quarterback Evan Simon is actually second nationally in Total QBR. It’s probably a bridge too far to ask the Owls to scare the visiting Sooners, however.
Current line: OU -23.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 24.1 | FPI projection: OU by 12.3
Memphis at Troy (noon, ESPNU). Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in SP+, but if Tae Meadows and the Troy run game get rolling, the Trojans and what should be a pretty spicy home crowd could make this one tough. (See: Tulane’s narrow escape against South Alabama last week.)
Current line: Memphis -3.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.8 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.9
Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (1 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri scored a wild rivalry win over Kansas last week, but seven of the Tigers’ last 10 games are projected within one score. This isn’t one of them, but Louisiana should be able to test Mizzou on the line of scrimmage, at least, and make the Tigers sweat a bit the week before South Carolina comes to town.
Current line: Mizzou -27.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.3 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 23.5
Saturday afternoon
USC at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Purdue is 2-0 and has established a nice offensive rhythm, albeit against cakey competition. But now begins a brutal stretch: Eight of its final 10 games are against teams ranked 33rd or better in SP+, including five ranked 18th or better (including USC). Can Barry Odom’s Boilermakers spring a surprise?
Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 19.7 | FPI projection: USC by 19.9
Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Oof. Oregon State suffered a devastating collapse in last week’s 36-27 loss to Fresno State. Now the Beavers head to West Texas to face a Texas Tech team that has outscored its first two opponents 129-21. We don’t know what the Red Raiders do wrong yet because they’ve done almost nothing wrong. What can OSU do to slow them down?
Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 27.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 21.3
No. 14 Iowa State at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has secured a pair of quality wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, but the Cyclones haven’t really gotten their run game going yet. Now’s the chance. ASU’s passing game has some pop, but the defense … doesn’t. Now’s a chance to establish a rhythm and take some pressure off Rocco Becht.
Current line: ISU -21.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 22.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 16.2
FAU at FIU (6 p.m., ESPN+). SHULA BOWL! FAU certainly manhandled Florida A&M last week and is running Zach Kittley’s offense at the nation’s fastest tempo, but Willie Simmons’ first FIU team has overachieved against projections in each of its first two games. Can the Golden Panthers end a seven-game rivalry losing streak?
Current line: FIU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FAU by 2.7 | FPI projection: FAU by 0.7
Saturday evening
Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (7 p.m., Peacock). Ohio is another big early-season overachiever, and quarterback Parker Navarro is fearless and physical. The blitz-happy Bobcats defense will try to throw some haymakers too. They probably won’t land many, but they could test Julian Sayin and some of Ohio State’s less experienced players.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by -31.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 24.6
No. 20 Utah at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBSSN). I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When I’m in charge of all college football scheduling, I’m sending a ranked power conference team to Laramie’s War Memorial Stadium every year. It can be a cauldron. Utah should prevail in its first trip up there in 15 years, but the Cowboys will hit hard and make their remodeled offense work harder than they’ve had to so far.
Current line: Utah -23.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 20.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 20.1
Duke at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN2). Darian Mensah Bowl! Mensah’s new team hits the road to face his old team, and after the Blue Devils fumbled away an opportunity to beat Illinois last week, they’ll have to rebound quickly to avoid falling to 1-2. Tulane has already beaten one power conference team (OK, it was Northwestern, but still). It looks the part of a big-time squad.
Current line: Tulane -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.1
Late Saturday
Minnesota at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has aced his early tests as Cal’s true freshman QB, completing 69% of his passes and taking almost no sacks. But Minnesota ranks third nationally in yards allowed per dropback (granted, after games against Buffalo and Northwestern State) and generates solid pressure without having to blitz much. The degree of difficulty ramps up considerably now.
Current line: Gophers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Gophers by 3.6 | FPI projection: Gophers by 0.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City (1 p.m., YouTube). After starting the season with a 37-29 win over a top-20 Wheaton team, Mount Union heads to Grove City, Pennsylvania, to face a ranked squad that SP+ loves. Can quarterback Mikey Maloney and the Purple Raiders score enough against a Grove City defense that forced seven turnovers against 2023 national champ Cortland last week?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 1.8
Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central (2 p.m., YouTube). Well, you can’t question UW-Oshkosh’s bravery. A week after opening the season in Oregon and beating a top-15 Linfield team, the Titans return to the Midwest to take on Division III’s standard-bearer. North Central would immediately be a competitive FCS program, but this is a tricky season debut for the champs.
SP+ projection: NCC by 23.2
FCS: No. 17 North Dakota at No. 7 Montana (3 p.m., ESPN+). Montana is one of the FCS’ most reliable programs and should be strong again this fall, but North Dakota has begun 2025 by nearly beating Kansas State and walloping (an admittedly hopeless) Portland State. The Grizzlies better be ready for a slugfest.
SP+ projection: Montana by 11.6
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Andrea Adelson
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Andrea Adelson
ESPN Senior Writer
- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
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David Hale
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David Hale
ESPN Staff Writer
- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
After an awkwardly handled replay late in the first half of last weekend’s game between UConn and Syracuse, a longtime ACC official has quit his post over frustration with the way the review was handled, sources told ESPN on Friday.
Gary Patterson, who served as the head referee for Saturday’s matchup between the Huskies and the Orange and has worked as an official with the ACC since 2002, abruptly terminated his contract with the conference after the game.
The ACC confirmed Patterson’s departure from the conference’s roster of officials Friday but said that adjustments to officiating crews have already been made and that there will be no disruption to league officiating. Patterson had been scheduled to referee Saturday’s game between Pitt and West Virginia.
The sequence that reportedly led to Patterson’s departure began with 1:02 remaining in the half and UConn leading 14-3. Syracuse opened a drive at the Huskies’ 25-yard line, and on first down, quarterback Steve Angeli dropped back to pass. His arm was hit as he threw, and the ball went forward about 8 yards, landing on the turf.
The officials immediately ruled the pass incomplete. Syracuse then snapped the ball again with 58 seconds left on the clock, though about 25 seconds of real time passed between plays. The second-down throw was nearly intercepted before two UConn players collided and the pass fell incomplete, bringing up a third-and-10 with 53 seconds to go.
A flag was thrown after the play, however, and Patterson could be seen talking on his headset to the ACC’s command center for nearly 90 seconds before announcing that “replay had buzzed in prior to the previous play.”
Sources who have reviewed numerous camera angles of the sequence said there was no physical indication by any official on the field that they had been buzzed by the replay booth before the second-down snap. An ACC spokesperson said that officials were buzzed to initiate the review but that the timing was not ideal for it to be a seamless replay. The conference has addressed the handling of this sequence internally, the spokesperson said.
Officials reviewed the first-down play to see whether Angeli had fumbled, negating the second-down play, before ultimately upholding the original call of an incomplete pass.
Syracuse and UConn officials were told the referee had simply “not heard” the initial request from the replay booth before the second-down snap.
ESPN rules expert Bill LeMonnier, who has decades of experience as an official, said the series of events was uncharacteristic of how a replay would normally be handled.
“Let’s say they’re right up at the line, the ball’s being snapped, and the buzzers go off,” LeMonnier said. “It’s the referee’s discretion to shut the play down vs. saying it’s too late. It’s supposed to be in the referee’s hands.”
LeMonnier also said a flag thrown after the second-down play, which was presumably due to a high hit on Angeli by a UConn defender, was ignored, despite rules saying a personal foul would be enforced even during a dead ball period.
“The mistakes were completely created by either the replay booth or the command center,” LeMonnier said. “It’s not the fault of the officials on the field.”
Every play is subject to review. When officials are buzzed to begin the process, they get on the headset with the replay booth in the stadium and the ACC command center and the review is initiated.
Two sources with knowledge of the situation said the directive came from the ACC command center.
One source said Patterson was upset at the ACC’s interference in forcing a replay after the next play had already occurred, instigating his resignation. Patterson did not respond to requests by ESPN for comment.
After the second-down incompletion was wiped out, Syracuse went 61 yards on its next seven plays and kicked a field goal as time expired in the half. The Orange went on to win the game 27-20 in overtime.
For select games this season, the ACC has allowed cameras and audio access to the review process, offering transparency into the discussions between on-field officials and replay officials at the command center. Last week’s game between UConn and Syracuse, however, was not among those with command center coverage.
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