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Look ma no hands — Are self-driving cars already safer than human drivers? I learned a lot by reading dozens of Waymo and Cruise crash reports.

Timothy B. Lee – Sep 1, 2023 11:30 am UTC Aurich Lawson | Getty Images reader comments 347 with

August was an eventful month for driverless taxis in San Francisco. On August 10, the California Public Utilities Commission voted to allow Googles Waymo and GMs Cruise to begin charging customers for driverless taxi rides across the city. A week later, Cruise vehicles were involved in two serious crashes within hours of one another. The next day, the California Department of Motor Vehicles demanded that Cruise cut its driverless taxi fleet in half while these crashes were investigated.

A few days later, New York Times reporter Cade Metz appeared on the Timess flagship podcast, The Daily, to discuss these developments and the state of the self-driving industry.

Metz argued that in recent weeks, it has become more and more clear to the people riding the cars, and to other citizens in the city, that they are flawed, that they do make mistakes, that they can gum up traffic, that they can cause accidents.

Of course self-driving cars are flawedall technologies are. The important question is whether self-driving cars are safer than human-driven cars. And here Metz proclaimed ignorance.

We don’t know yet whether it’s safer than a human driver, he said.

But we actually do know a fair amount about the safety of driverless taxis. Waymo and Cruise have driven a combined total of 8 million driverless miles (a Waymo spokeswoman told me the company has completed more than 4 million driverless miles, and Cruise has said the same). That includes more than 4 million in San Francisco since the start of 2023. And because California law requires self-driving companies to report every significant crash, we know a lot about how theyve performed.

For this story, I read through every crash report Waymo and Cruise filed in California this year, as well as reports each company filed about the performance of their driverless vehicles (with no safety drivers) prior to 2023. In total, the two companies reported 102 crashes involving driverless vehicles. That may sound like a lot, but they happened over roughly 6 million miles of driving. That works out to one crash for every 60,000 miles, which is about five years of driving for a typical human motorist.

These were overwhelmingly low-speed collisions that did not pose a serious safety risk. A large majority appeared to be the fault of the other driver. This was particularly true for Waymo, whose biggest driving errors included side-swiping an abandoned shopping cart and clipping a parked cars bumper while pulling over to the curb.

Cruises record is not impressive as Waymos, but theres still reason to think its technology is on par withand perhaps better thana human driver.

Human beings drive close to 100 million miles between fatal crashes, so it will take hundreds of millions of driverless miles for 100 percent certainty on this question. But the evidence for better-than-human performance is starting to pile up, especially for Waymo. Its important for policymakers to allow this experiment to continue because, at scale, safer-than-human driving technology would save a lot of lives. Waymos impressive safety record EnlargeWaymo

Back in February, Waymo released a report celebrating its first million miles of fully driverless operation, which mostly occurred in the suburbs of Phoenix. Waymos autonomous vehicles (AVs) experienced 20 crashes during those first million miles. Here are some representative examples: A passenger car backed out of a parking space and made contact with the Waymo AV. An SUV backed out of a driveway and made contact with the Waymo AV. The vehicle that had been previously stopped behind the Waymo proceeded forward, making contact with the rear bumper of the Waymo AV. A passenger car that had been stopped behind the Waymo AV passed the Waymo AV on the left. The passenger cars rear passenger side door made contact with the driver side rear of the Waymo AV.

In short, these were mostly low-speed collisions initiated by the other diver.

There were only two cases where a Waymo ran into another vehicle. In one, a motorcyclist in the next lane lost control and fell off their bike. The driverless Waymo slammed on its brakes but couldnt avoid hitting the now-riderless motorcycle at 8 miles per hour. In the other case, another vehicle cut in front of the Waymo, and the AV braked hard but couldnt avoid a collision.

There were two crashes that Waymo thought were serious enough for inclusion in a federal crash database. The more serious of these was when another driver rear-ended a Waymo while looking at their phone.

One of Waymos biggest challenges during its first million miles was avoiding inanimate objects. Waymo vehicles bumped into a construction pylon, a parking lot barrier arm, and a shopping cartall at speeds of between 8 and 13 miles per hour. Clearly, Waymo needs to do a better job of recognizing irregularly shaped objects like these. But when it comes to interacting with other vehicles, Waymo had a basically spotless driving record over those first million miles.

Now lets look at how Waymo has done in San Francisco since the start of 2023. Waymo is still struggling to avoid inanimate objects. Its vehicles collided with cardboard road debris and a chain connecting a sign to a temporary pole. A Waymo also drove into a pothole that was big enough to puncture a tire. And there were two incidents where Waymos scraped parked vehicles. Thats a total of five crashes where the Waymo vehicle was clearly at fault.

The rest of Waymos driverless crashes in San Francisco during 2023 do not seem to have been Waymos fault. I count 11 low-speed crashes where another vehicle rear-ended a Waymo, backed into a stopped Waymo, or scraped a stopped Waymo while trying to squeeze by. There was also an incident where a Waymo got sideswiped by another vehicle changing lanes.

Waymo had two more serious crashes in San Francisco this year: A driverless Waymo was trying to turn left, but another car proceeded into the intersection from the left and made contact with the left side of the Waymo AV. An SUV rear-ended a Waymo hard enough that the passenger in the Waymo reported injuries.

I should also mention the Waymo crash that killed a dog back in May. I didnt mention this earlier because Ive been focusing on driverless vehicles and the Waymo that hit the dog had a safety driver behind the wheel. But this crash is worth mentioning since its one of the most serious ones Waymo has experienced. Advertisement

In an emailed statement, Waymo said that it reviewed the event from many different perspectives and concluded there was no way either Waymos software or a human driver could have avoided hitting the dog. Waymo hasnt provided the public with enough information to verify this claim, but I hope California regulators check Waymos work if they havent done so already. We dont have great data on the safety of human drivers

To sum up, Waymos driverless fleet has experienced: 17 low-speed collisions where another vehicle hit a stationary Waymo 9 collisions where another vehicle rear-ended a Waymo 2 collisions where a Waymo got sideswiped by another vehicle 2 collisions where a Waymo got cut off and wasnt able to brake quickly enough 2 low-speed collisions with stationary vehicles 7 low-speed collisions with inanimate objects like shopping carts and potholes

There are two things to notice about this list. First, other vehicles ran into Waymos 28 times, compared to just four times a Waymo ran into another vehicle (and Waymo says its vehicle got cut off in two of these cases). Second, Waymo was only involved in three or four serious crashes, and none of them appear to have been Waymos fault.

This is impressive because thesestatistics reflect more than 2 million miles of driving (a Waymo spokeswoman told me the company has logged more than 1 million miles in San Francisco since the start of 2023). The National Highway Traffic Safety Board estimates that there are around 6 million car crashes reported to the police each year. Americans drive around 3 trillion miles per year, so roughly speaking, a major crash occurs on the roads once every 500,000 miles.

Most crashes involve two vehicles. So if Waymos vehicles drove as well as a typical human driver, youd expect it to be involved in around eight serious crashes over 2 million miles of driving.

Its important to emphasize that theres a lot of uncertainty about these figures.

We know very little about the safety of our roads, the legal scholar Bryant Walker Smith told me. If we’re looking at just crashes, given how little information is carefully collected and studied, we don’t have any sense of the circumstances of these low-level crashes.

Not all crasheseven serious onesare reported to the police.

Moreover, Smith said, these companies are not driving a representative sample of miles.

Both Waymo and Cruise have their driverless cars avoid freeways, which tend to have fewer crashes per mile of driving. Both companies are active in San Francisco, which has more chaotic streets than most US cities.

On the other hand, a small minority of driversincluding teenagers, elderly people, and drunk driversaccount for a disproportionate share of crashes. An alert and experienced driver gets into crashes at a rate well below the national average. So if we want AVs to drive as well as an alert and experienced driver, we’ll want to set the bar higher than the national average.

With all that said, it seems that Waymo cars get into serious crashes at a significantly lower rate than human-driven cars. Ill have more to say about this after we look at Cruises safety record. Cruise has room for improvement EnlargeCruise

Cruise released a report back in April about its first million driverless miles. The company reported 36 crashes, compared to 20 for Waymos first million driverless miles. I wouldnt put too much stock into that difference, since Cruise was operating mainly in San Francisco, a more chaotic driving environment than the Phoenix suburbs where Waymo started out.

So far in 2023, Cruise has filed an additional 27 crash reports related to its fully driverless cars. What follows is a summary of all 63 crashes Cruise reported through August 25. Ill also count a widely publicized August 17 crash with a fire truck even though theres still no report on this crash on the website of the California Department of Motor Vehicles.

Like Waymo, Cruise has had trouble with its vehicles hitting inanimate objects. Two Cruise vehicles ran into downed power cables. Cruise vehicles also ran into a scooter (without someone on it), a tow dolly on the back of a double-parked truck, a motorized articulating boom lift, and a pothole. The pothole punctured a tire, causing the Cruise AV to swerve into a parked car.

Cruise has also experienced a large number of low-speed crashes where another vehicle (including a scooter in one case and a skateboarder in another) either rear-ended a Cruise AV, backed into one at low speeds, or scraped the side of a Cruise while trying to pass it.

There were also a few rare situations: A Cruise vehicle was stuck in a sideshow event and stationary with vehicles driving around it on either side. (A sideshow is an illegal late-night show where young people perform donuts and other stunts in an intersection.) One of the other cars ran into the Cruise AV. An Infinity Q50 was performing donuts in an intersection before crashing into a Cruise vehicle. A driver drove the wrong way down a one-way street while staring at a phone. The car hit a stopped Cruise vehicle facing the right way.

There were about a dozen side-swipe events where another vehicle either ran into the Cruise AV from the side during a lane change or tried to make a turn from a middle lane, crossing the path of the Cruise AV. Most of these crashes occurred during Cruises first million miles, so Cruise may be getting better at handling these situations.

Its important to note that Cruise has logged more than four million miles in San Francisco, so Cruises crash reports represent roughly twice as many miles as Waymos. Once you adjust for that, Waymo and Cruise seem to have been involved in low-stakes crashes at similar rates.

For example, Cruise vehicles got rear-ended 17 times over about 4 million miles, while Waymo vehicles got rear-ended seven times over roughly 2 million miles. That makes sense given that Cruise drove twice as many miles and that Waymo logged almost half of its miles in the tame Phoenix suburbs.

But even taking those differences into account, there are a couple areas where Cruises performance does not seem to be on par with Waymo.

One is significant crashes where Cruise was clearly at fault. I saw three examples of this: A Cruise AV mistakenly thought the vehicle ahead of it was starting to turn left. The Cruise ran into the other vehicle when it turned right instead. A Cruise AV changed lanes when there wasnt enough space to do so, cutting off another vehicle and leading to a crash. A Cruise AV ran into the back of a city bus. Cruise subsequently determined that its software got confused because it was an articulated bus (the kind with an accordion joint in the middle) and Cruises software couldnt handle two parts of a vehicle moving in slightly different directions. Advertisement

Each of these mistakes strikes me as more serious than any of Waymos mistakes (recall that all of Waymos clearly at-fault crashes were low-speed collisions with inanimate objects or parked vehicles). Cruise might have a problem with intersections Enlarge

Cruises other trouble spot is intersections. Cruise says two bicyclists have run stop signs and crashed into Cruise vehicles. And there have been five vehicles that ran red lights and crashed into Cruise vehicles: This Mercedes sedan This Volkswagen hatchback This Infinity Q60 This Dodge Charger This fire truck with its sirens blaring

A passenger in that last Cruise AV was taken to the hospital; Cruise described their injuries as non-severe.

Perhaps all of these crashes (with the possible exception of the fire truck) were the fault of the other drivers (and cyclists). Still, its interesting that over two million miles of driverless operation, no Waymo AVs got hit by cars running red lights or bicycles running stop signs.

Again, this may be partly because Cruise has driven more milesand especially more miles in San Francisco. Also, Cruise has largely operated at night, when there might be more impaired drivers on the road.

But I think there might be something else going on here.

A couple of years ago, Waymo published research exploring the potential for self-driving cars to prevent crashes by anticipating the reckless behavior of other drivers. Waymo researchers obtained detailed records about fatal crashes that occurred in and around the Phoenix suburb of Chandler (where Waymo launched its first driverless taxi service). Waymo then hired an independent engineering firm to create detailed digital reconstructions of these crashes. Then the company loaded this data into its simulator to explore how Waymos self-driving software would have reacted in the seconds preceding each crash.

Waymo found its software could prevent every crash if it took the role of the initiator, the vehicle whose erratic behavior set the crash in motion. More surprisingly, Waymo also found its software could prevent 82 percent of crashes playing the role of the other driver.

The most common setting for fatal crashes in this data set was intersectionsincluding a number of vehicles running red lights. Waymo found that when its software played the role of the other driver, it was able to avoid crashes in 81 percent of scenarios at intersections.

In the wake of the Cruise collision with a ire truck on August 17, Waymo told industry analyst Brad Templeton that its vehicles would have handled the situation better than Cruise did:

When we hear sirens, our vehicle will slow and then depending on how the situation develops, we will either pull over or stop ahead of intersections where there might be crossing emergency vehicles, even if we have a green light. The system is designed to remain cautious and not enter an intersection if it is still reasoning whether the emergency vehicle is approaching the intersection based on what it is sensing.

I think technology like this may explain why Waymo has been successful at avoiding major crashes at intersections. Not only do Waymos vehicles follow the letter of the law (like stopping at red lights), they may also try to anticipate and avoid dangerous situations (like vehicles running red lights).

Cruise vehicles do not seem especially cautious about intersections. For example, a Reddit user posted a video from August 22 showing a Cruise vehicle crossing an intersection several seconds after the opposing traffic got a green light. Cruise says its vehicle was already in the intersection when its light turned red so the vehicle didnt break the law. Maybe thats technically trueIm not an expert on California traffic law. But Im pretty sure it would have been safer for the car to stay where it was and wait for the next green light. Cruises technology is pretty good, but Waymos is better Enlarge / Waymo tested its technology for more than 20 million miles before launching a driverless service.

The bottom line is that Im convinced that Waymo vehicles drive more safely than Cruise vehicles. This isnt surprising; Waymo started its life as the Google self-driving project several years before Cruise was founded. Back in 2020, Waymo announced it had completed 20 million miles of on-road testing (almost all of them with safety drivers). The same year, Cruise reached 2 million miles.

In short, Waymo has invested more time and resources into its technology. It would be surprising if all that extra work didnt yield superior performance. With that said, I dont want to be too negative about Cruise. Because while the companys technology doesnt seem to be as good as Waymos, its still pretty good.

Earlier, I discussed why its so difficult to develop a good benchmark for human driving performance. We only know about crashes that get reported to the police or other authorities, giving us a patchy understanding of how many crashes really occur.

Cruise tried to address this problem by hiring a team of prominent academic researchers to study the driving behavior of ride-hail drivers in San Francisco. The researchers examined 5.6 million miles of data and concluded that collisions involving San Francisco ride-hail drivers occur about once every 20,000 miles. That includes a lot of minor crashes that wouldnt be reported to police.

Based on this data, Cruise claimed that over its first million miles, its vehicles crashed 56 percent less often per mile than a typical human driver. Moreover, Cruise estimated that its cars were 73 percent less likely to be in a crash with a risk of a serious injury and 93 percent less likely to be the primary contributor to a crash.

One should take these conclusions with a grain of salt given that the research was commissioned by Cruise. But they dont seem crazy. Cruise vehicles really do seem to crash into other vehicles much less often than vice versa. So I wouldnt be surprised if Cruise vehicles already drive more safely than the average human driver. The need for real-world testing

The big question for policymakers is whether to allow Waymo and Cruise to continue and even expand their services. This should be an easy call with respect to Waymo, which seems to be safer than a human driver already. The faster Waymo scales up, the more crashes can be prevented.

I think Cruises tech is probably safer than a human driver too, but its a closer call. I could imagine changing my mind in the coming months as more data comes in.

Still, its important to remember that access to public roads is essential for testing and improving self-driving technology. This is not a technology Waymo or Cruise can meaningfully test in the lab. The companies need exposure to the full complexity of real public streets in order to make progress. And given that both companies are likely to eventually develop products that are much safer than human drivers, slowing down the development of the technology could easily cost more lives than it saves.

So while the DMVs decision to cut the size of Cruises fleet in the wake of the August 17 crashes was understandable, I hope the decision is short-lived. Ultimately the only way for Cruise to improve its technology is by testing it on public roads. And well all benefit from the widespread availability of self-driving cars that are dramatically safer than human drivers.

One easy way for policymakers to improve safetyor at least accountabilitywould to require self-driving companies to be more even more transparent about their safety records. This story relied heavily on Californias excellent website that publishes all of the Waymo and Cruise crash reports. Id love for the California Department of Motor Vehicles to go a step further and require self-driving companies to submit video footage of the seconds before and after each crash. That way, members of the public could evaluate whether companies descriptions of crashes are accurate.

It would also be very helpful for regulators in other statesor perhaps federal officialsto require the same kind of crash reporting that they have in California. For example, Waymo is running a substantial driverless taxi service in Phoenix, but we know very little about how well Waymo’s AVs have performed there in recent months. More transparency here and in other states could help to build public trust.

Tim Lee was on staff at Ars from 2017 to 2021. He recently launched a new newsletter,Understanding AI. It explores how AI works and how it’s changing our world. You can subscribe to his newsletterhere. reader comments 347 with Timothy B. Lee Timothy is a senior reporter covering tech policy and the future of transportation. He lives in Washington DC. Advertisement Promoted Comments Tim Lee The 2 final paragraphs should have been at the top, since they cast doubt on all of the stats the author uses to tell us how safe Waymo and Cruise vehicles are. We are only seeing very partial data from these companies in only some cities where they operate, and no crash video (because that would be too outrageous, presumably). WaPo noted on Aug 10 that even in CA they "are not required to report a range of other incidents that affect the public such as when a car veers into a bike or bus lane or stops short and disrupts traffic." They also don’t report "the many other examples of issues the cars have run into when they were operating in manual mode, or after the autonomous car was taken over by a human driver," say, at the last moment to avoid a crash.

Basically, the data from AV companies used in this article is inherently poor and incomplete. That the author uses it to declare his confidence before getting to just a few of the many caveats that reduce its value? Not great science journalism.Hi, a couple of important clarifications:

My analysis is specifically fcused on driverless miles in the cases where Waymo and Cruise have published a complete record of their crashes. That’s the first million miles for both Waymo and Cruise, plus miles in San Francisco since those first million miles. I’m ignoring miles since early 2023 in states other than California precisely because the companies aren’t required to report every crash. So while it’s true that the crash data I used doesn’t cover every single driverless miles they’ve driven, I’m doing an apples-to-apples comparison in the sense that the numerator (number of crashes) matches up with the denominator (miles that produced those crashes).

Specifically, I counted:

Waymo’s first million miles (mostly in Phoenix) Cruise’s first million miles (mostly in SF) Cruise miles in SF since January 2023 (around 3 million) Waymo miles in SF since January 2023 (more than 1 million)
I did not factor in the 1-2 million miles of driving in Phoenix in 2023 because Waymo has not published complete crash statistics for those miles.

Also all analysis is specifically focused on fully driverless miles where there was no one in the driver’s seat. So "the many other examples of issues the cars have run into when they were operating in manual mode, or after the autonomous car was taken over by a human driver" are not factored into the analysis, but I also don’t give Waymo and Cruise "credit" for those miles. The 4, 6, and 8 million mile figures I cite near the beginning of the piece are fully driverless miles where there was no safety driver to take over in case of emergency. September 1, 2023 at 1:27 pm TimothyAWiseman The fact that these cars keep getting rear-ended tells me that they have an unreasonable tendency to slam on the brakes / otherwise stop in an unpredictable fashion.No. I have been rear ended 3 times. Twice I was stopped at a red and the driver behind me was simply inattentive. I was completely predictable and in fact required to be stopped.

The other was when someone in front of me slammed on their breaks to avoid hitting an animal that ran into the road. I managed to stop in time, the person behind me didn’t. While I suppose I was unpredictable that time, it was a necessary and unavoidable unpredictability.

The only time I have rear-ended someone else was when I was first learning to use a stick-shift. I hit the clutch instead of the brake. The driver in front of me was behaving perfectly predictably and it was entirely my fault.

Also, notably, 0 of those incidents were reported to police and only two were even reported to insurance. If you are relying on public records, it would look like I have never been in rear-end collision while at least in California the autonomous cars are required to report all of theirs. September 1, 2023 at 4:59 pm Channel Ars Technica ← Previous story Next story → Related Stories Today on Ars

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Buchnevich’s hat trick steers Blues to Game 3 win

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Buchnevich's hat trick steers Blues to Game 3 win

ST. LOUIS — Pavel Buchnevich scored three goals for his first career playoff hat trick and added an assist as the St. Louis Blues beat the Winnipeg Jets 7-2 in Game 3 of their first-round series on Thursday night.

Cam Fowler had a goal and four assists, and Jordan Kyrou, Alexey Toropchenko and Colton Parayko also scored, and Robert Thomas had three assists to help the Blues cut the Jets’ series lead to 2-1. Jordan Binnington made 17 saves.

David Gustafsson and Neal Pionk scored for the Jets, who won the first two games in Winnipeg. Connor Hellebuyck gave up six goals on 25 shots before being pulled midway through the third period. Eric Comrie stopped two of the three shots he faced.

Game 4 is in St. Louis on Sunday, with Game 5 in Winnipeg on Wednesday.

Buchnevich, who had just one goal in 22 previous postseason games, gave the Blues an early lead with two goals in the game’s opening minutes. He got it going just 48 seconds in by kicking the puck off his stick and into the net, and then he tipped Thomas’ shot for a power-play goal at 3:11.

Fowler, who assisted on the first two goals, made it 3-0 with 4:09 left in the opening period.

Buchnevich and Fowler became the first Blues teammates with three points in a period of a playoff game since Al MacInnis and Chris Pronger in Game 3 of the 1998 West quarterfinals against the Kings.

Binnington robbed Cole Perfetti of a power-play goal midway through the second that would have gotten Winnipeg back in it. Perfetti and the Jets thought the puck crossed the goal line in Binnington’s glove, but after a lengthy league-initiated review, the save stood.

Buchnevich’s third goal, at 5:24 of the third period, came less than a minute after Gustafsson gave the Jets some momentum with his first of the playoffs.

Kyrou had a power-play goal at 7:56 and Toropchenko scored with 9:28 left to make it 6-1 and chase Hellebuyck.

Pionk had a power-play goal for the Jets 2 1/2 minutes later, but Parayko got the Blues’ third goal with the man-advantage with 3:43 remaining to close the scoring.

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MLB Power Rankings: Who’s No. 1 one month into the season?

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MLB Power Rankings: Who's No. 1 one month into the season?

We’re just about at the one-month mark of the 2025 MLB season — meaning, yes, it’s still too early to give much credence to the standings, but there are quite a few surprises nonetheless.

Just 2.5 games separate four teams — three of which have winning percentages above .600 — in the NL West, as the National League is shaping up to be packed with many powerful playoff-contending squads. And in the NL East, the current basement dweller, in a division that includes the Marlins and Nationals … is still the Braves?!

Meanwhile, in the American League, while the Yankees are playing as well as projected, a number of teams are hovering around .500, the Orioles are scuffling and the Twins have the second-worst record in the league.

What will the month of May bring for these clubs? Will they be able to carry — or change — their momentum?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez and Bradford Doolittle to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 3 | Preseason rankings


Record: 16-9
Previous ranking: 2

The Dodgers spent the offseason loading up their roster in hopes that they would become almost immune to the attrition that plagues teams throughout the season. Their pitching depth has been compromised nonetheless. Tony Gonsolin (back), Blake Snell (shoulder), Blake Treinen (forearm) and Michael Kopech (forearm) were added to the injured list before the end of the season’s first full month. And though none of their aforementioned injuries are considered serious — for now, at least — they offer yet another reminder of how delicate pitching depth can be. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have won in spite of that. Not at the rate many expected them to, perhaps, but enough to keep them among the sport’s elite. — Gonzalez


Record: 17-8
Previous ranking: 1

Any thought that the Padres’ deflating NL Division Series loss and the underwhelming offseason that followed it would weaken their resolve in 2025 has been grossly misplaced. They’ve stormed out of the gate with the second-best record in baseball, winning each of their first seven games and claiming five of their first six series. Nick Pivetta has been a revelation. Fernando Tatis Jr. is displaying a newfound patience that has made him look like the best player in the sport. The bullpen has been dominant. But what has stood out most is the energy of the Padres’ home environment and how their players continue to feed off it. They are 12-1 at Petco Park this season, a place that has seen their pitching staff post a 1.30 ERA. — Gonzalez


Record: 18-7
Previous ranking: 3

Don’t look now but the Mets are on fire — and the fans at Citi Field are getting very excited. The raucous atmosphere at the ballpark during the Mets’ extra-inning game against the Phillies on Wednesday came through even on the broadcast. That’s not surprising for a team that entered the season with high expectations and, so far, has more than met them. A starting rotation that seemed to lack star power when the season began has been one of the best units in the majors. The rotation’s average game score (56) ranks just behind MLB-leading Texas and its ERA (a sparkling 2.29) is easily the best in the majors. — Doolittle


Record: 15-10
Previous ranking: 7

If it wasn’t obvious last year, Aaron Judge is still proving he’s the best hitter on the planet — and it’s not particularly close. The two-time AL MVP has been Bondsian (should it just be Judgian at this point?) again to start the season. He leads the majors in batting average (.415), OBP (.513), slugging (.734) and OPS (1.247), and is tied for second in RBIs (26), to name a few categories.

Remember: Last season, he slashed .322/.458/.701 with 58 home runs — and won MVP — after a middling start through the beginning of May. In 150 games since May 3 last year, he’s batting .367 with 59 home runs, 152 RBIs and a 1.273 OPS. It has been an unreal stretch — going back, really, to his 62-homer season in 2022 — that we haven’t seen since Barry Bonds was splashing balls into McCovey Cove. — Castillo


Record: 16-9
Previous ranking: 4

When franchise icon Buster Posey assumed the role of president of baseball operations, he set out to build the Giants into a team that would win on the strength of pitching and defense. That, Posey said he believed, was key to thriving at a place like Oracle Park, which traditionally saps offense. But while that develops, the Giants have enjoyed a much-needed spark of offense from Jung Hoo Lee, who’s slashing .333/.388/.581 with 10 doubles. Lee’s rookie season of 2024 was plagued by a torn labrum. The Giants couldn’t truly catch a glimpse for how his elite bat-to-ball skills would translate within Oracle Park’s spacious outfield. They have now. — Gonzalez


Record: 14-10
Previous ranking: 8

When it comes to Arizona’s lineup, Corbin Carroll is the spark plug, Josh Naylor was brought in to provide punch in the middle of it and Geraldo Perdomo is one of its most crucial — yet unheralded — contributors. Their production was to be expected. But Pavin Smith‘s has been a welcomed sight. The 29-year-old left-handed hitter put together a really solid 60-game sample last season and has taken that to a new level in the first month, batting almost .400 while boasting the second-highest slugging percentage among those with at least 70 plate appearances. The D-backs never really replaced Joc Pederson‘s production at designated hitter with any outside acquisitions. Smith has shown they didn’t need to. — Gonzalez


Record: 16-10
Previous ranking: 6

On two occasions in five days, both teams scored at least 10 runs in a game at Wrigley Field. On Friday, the Cubs beat the D-backs 13-11 by scoring five runs in the seventh inning and six runs in the eighth. On Tuesday, they trailed the Dodgers by three runs heading into the bottom of the eighth and wound up beating them 11-10 in the 10th. It spoke to the early identity of this Cubs team. With Justin Steele out for the season and their bullpen a mess, the Cubs might have to slug their way to the top of the NL Central. And with the likes of Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch and Carson Kelly off to strong starts, they just might. — Gonzalez


Record: 13-12
Previous ranking: 5

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been able to cobble together contention-worthy bullpens for the most part during his time with the Phillies, but his wizardry in that area has been tested early. The Phillies have gotten solid enough work from the trio of Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks, but pretty much every other reliever has struggled. Of particular concern is veteran right-hander Jordan Romano, who inked a one-year, $8.5 million free agent deal with Philadelphia over the winter. Romano’s early-season ERA is an unsightly 13.50 and he has given up two or more runs in four of his 10 outings. — Doolittle


Record: 15-10
Previous ranking: 9

It took longer than projected, but right-hander Casey Mize and first baseman Spencer Torkelson are finally realizing their potential together as former No. 1 overall picks in consecutive years. The 28-year-old Mize, the top pick in 2017, has been the best starter in a rotation featuring Tarik Skubal with a 2.22 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in four starts despite just a 18.9% strikeout rate after posting a 4.49 ERA last season. Torkelson, meanwhile, is slashing .264/.373/.571 with seven home runs in 25 games. The 2018 No. 1 pick has already accumulated 1.1 fWAR (his career high is 1.5, which he set in 2023 when he slugged a career-high 31 homers). — Castillo


Record: 14-10
Previous ranking: 10

The Rangers’ solid early pitching has helped them establish an early lead in the AL West despite a negative run differential. They will be hard-pressed to remain on that perch if their aggressive offense doesn’t start producing when it’s not hitting home runs. Texas is in the bottom five of the majors in swinging at first pitches, walks and scoring runs, and only four teams have relied more on homers to score. The ambush approach has worked for their attack in the past, but so far this year, it has not. — Doolittle


Record: 14-12
Previous ranking: 9

The Rafael Devers predicament is no longer an issue. The third baseman-turned-DH reverted to his usual self since that historically dreadful start (0-for-19 with 15 strikeouts), batting .253 with 13 RBIs and seven doubles since April 2. And yet, strangely, the Red Sox have struggled to consistently produce high-scoring outputs. Boston has scored four or fewer runs in 13 of 21 games this month. It’s baffling for a lineup with that much firepower — especially considering four regulars have an OPS of at least .820. — Castillo


Record: 14-10
Previous ranking: 11

It’s shaping up to be another year of the so-called experts (Who, me?) overlooking the Guardians and another year of the Guardians stomping on low expectations. At least so far. They’re 14-10 despite a minus-five run differential and closer Emmanuel Clase‘s 7.84 ERA. Steven Kwan is batting .337. Kyle Manzardo has seven home runs. Jose Ramirez has an .824 OPS with five homers and four steals. Logan Allen has a 2.11 ERA through four starts. Clase’s struggles after a historically great season are alarming, but Hunter Gaddis (no runs over 9⅔ innings), Cade Smith (1.38 ERA), Jakob Junis (1.64 ERA), Joey Cantillo (1.35 ERA) and Tim Herrin (2.00 ERA) have sparkled out of the bullpen. The Guardians just keep humming along in a very winnable AL Central. — Castillo


Record: 13-12
Previous ranking: 19

Things looked quite bleak for the Brewers early. They lost their first four games, during which their staff gave up a combined 47 runs. It looked like the start of a long year in Milwaukee. Then the Brewers did what they’re best known for — win, regardless of who’s gone or who’s hurt. Since the first day of April, they have won 13 of 21 games to keep pace with the Cubs in the NL Central. During that stretch, their rotation has put together a 2.34 ERA, second only to the Mets for the major league lead — even though seven starting pitchers currently make up Milwaukee’s IL. — Gonzalez


Record: 13-11
Previous ranking: 21

The Astros appear to have a new ace in Hunter Brown, who has been one of baseball’s best pitchers during the opening month. Brown has strung together three straight scoreless outings, lowering his season ERA to 1.16. The early-season star of Brown’s arsenal has been a four-seamer that has picked up 1.3 mph in average velocity over last season, per Statcast. Opponents are 2-for-35 against Brown’s heater in 2025 and the assigned run value of the four-seamer (plus-7) puts it in a tie with the slider of Miami’s Max Meyer as the most valuable pitch in all of baseball so far. — Doolittle


Record: 10-14
Previous ranking: 18

The Braves have more or less bounced back from their winless season-opening trip, a skid that dropped them from ESPN’s preseason No. 2 team to the middle of the pack. Yet all is not well in Cobb County. Good news: Spencer Strider made a triumphant return to the majors last week. Bad news: He made a frustrating return to the IL not long after. Luckily, his hamstring strain was classified as Grade 1 and if all goes well, his IL stint won’t be a long one. Still, his one-start return is apropos for an elite team that has struggled to build momentum. — Doolittle


Record: 13-11
Previous ranking: 15

The disconnect between the home and road versions of Seattle’s offense is reaching absurd levels. At T-Mobile Park, the Mariners remain punchless, hitting .226 as a team while scoring at a rate (3.6 runs) better than only three other teams in their respective home venues. On the road, they are the punchers, hitting .267 with a top five road scoring average in baseball.

An avatar in that is third baseman Dylan Moore, fresh off winning AL Player of the Week honors, boosted by the fact that the M’s are on a road trip. For the season, Moore is hitting .200/.333/.350 in Seattle with one homer. On the road, he’s at .311/.340/.600 with four homers. Maybe the Mariners’ hitters could petition to play all their games on the road? — Doolittle


Record: 12-13
Previous ranking: 13

The Blue Jays have enjoyed a solid first month, which registers as a success after last year’s last-place debacle. But the first month of the season will be remembered for their decision to give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500-million contract. Whether that investment pans out will make or break the franchise’s future. Stringing together a few solid months to remain within striking distance at the trade deadline would be a good start. — Castillo


Record: 12-13
Previous ranking: 17

The Reds’ offense has mostly underperformed — minus a 24-run onslaught against the Orioles on Easter Sunday — but their pitching has been mostly solid. And the most encouraging signs have come from their two young frontline starters, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, who have clearly taken big steps forward. The two have combined for a 2.56 ERA through their first 10 starts. Greene, whose fastball is averaging 99 mph, has struck out 35 batters and issued only six walks in 30⅔ innings. Andrew Abbott, meanwhile, was activated off the IL around mid-April and has given up only two runs in 11 innings. — Gonzalez


Record: 10-14
Previous ranking: 12

For all the work done to make Steinbrenner Field feel like home, the fact is that the Rays are still without one. That was obvious over the weekend when the Yankees traveled to Tampa to take three of four games as the visiting team in their spring training ballpark. The Rays have played all but five games at their temporary residence, going 9-10 after having their schedule changed to frontload home games to avoid the summer heat and rain. They’ll need to be better than that to make noise in the AL East. — Castillo


Record: 9-14
Previous ranking: 20

The Orioles’ chief concern entering the season was their starting pitching, and it’s proved to be a very real problem — one without an obvious solution. They have the highest starters’ ERA in baseball by nearly a half-run. Charlie Morton, their $15 million free agent addition, has a league-worst 10.89 ERA in 20⅔ innings through five starts. Dean Kremer has a 6.84 ERA after yielding eight extra-base hits to the Nationals on Tuesday. Cade Povich has a 6.38 ERA. Zach Eflin, their Opening Day starter, was put on the IL because of a lat strain after three starts. Grayson Rodriguez and Albert Suarez began the season on the IL because of shoulder injuries and their returns aren’t imminent. This is a weakness that could bury Baltimore in the standings before long. — Castillo


Record: 10-14
Previous ranking: 16

Kansas City ranks last in baseball in runs scored per game, averaging fewer than three. Bobby Witt Jr. is raking again and Maikel Garcia has been a pleasant surprise, but other than that, it has been ugly. Vinnie Pasquantino has a .186/.260/.314 slash line. Salvador Perez also has struggled with a .185 batting average and .528 OPS. This has all amplified the fan base’s cries for the club to call up top prospect Jac Caglianone as soon as possible.

Caglianone was the team’s first-round pick at No. 6 last year. He possesses perhaps the best raw power across the minors, but the first baseman has played only 16 games above Double-A. As an elite two-way player in college, he could be capable of playing the outfield, but he has played only first base as a pro, so there isn’t an obvious positional fit. But his bat could force its way to Kansas City soon enough. — Castillo


Record: 10-15
Previous ranking: 23

The Cardinals turned some heads with a season-opening sweep of the Twins, but now they’re right about where we expected — five games below .500 in the wake of a brutal 1-6 trip and battling the typical inconsistency of a mediocre-to-bad team. Brendan Donovan has been red hot; the likes of Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar and Victor Scott II have provided encouraging signs; and key members of their staff, most notably Sonny Gray and Steven Matz, have pitched well. But there has been at least as much bad to counteract the good.

Case in point: Miles Mikolas took the mound with a 7.64 ERA on Wednesday afternoon and proceeded to throw six scoreless innings against the Braves. The Cardinals lost anyway. They scored only once. — Gonzalez


Record: 11-12
Previous ranking: 22

After a hot — and surprising — start, the Angels have started to level off, dropping back to .500 with a run differential well below break even. The bullpen has been a problem area despite a near-perfect start to the season from veteran closer Kenley Jansen. One glimmer of hope from that group is 27-year-old right-hander Ryan Zeferjahn, who, despite logging only 6⅔ innings this season, ranks fourth on the Halos with 14 strikeouts. He’s whiffing batters at a rate of 18.9 per nine innings — or more than two per frame. He also has given up a couple of homers, but the raw talent certainly seems to be there for Zeferjahn to work a high-leverage role. — Doolittle


Record: 11-13
Previous ranking: 26

For all the early talk about Sutter Health Park being a new hitter’s paradise in MLB, the Athletics’ immediate problem is that their opponents have done a much better job of playing to its conditions. The A’s lost eight of their first 10 home games in Sacramento, and while the ugly home/road splits of the pitching staff might be expected, the much bigger surprise is that their hitters have also been better on the road. The difference has primarily been homers: 13 long balls in 11 games at home; 22 in 13 games on the road. — Doolittle


Record: 11-13
Previous ranking: 25

The Marlins have held their own in the win column over the first month, though they hold one of the NL’s worst run differentials. Still, as long as Miami is hovering around .500, it’s probably not fair to turn the focus to what so many see as the inevitability of a Sandy Alcantara trade. Nevertheless, whether you’re tracking Alcantara for trade value purposes or you’re holding out hope that the Marlins can be a surprise contender, the better he pitches, the better off you’ll be. Alas, Alcantara is not yet back to his pre-injury, Cy Young form. A quality start against Cincinnati on Wednesday lowered his ERA to 6.56 but his K/9 (6.56, matching the ERA) and BB/9 (4.63) are both well off his presurgery standard. — Doolittle


Record: 9-15
Previous ranking: 24

The Twins couldn’t overcome injuries in 2024, collapsing down the stretch to fall out of postseason contention, and it looks as if they won’t be able to overcome injuries in 2025 either. Royce Lewis, the talented but oft-injured infielder, sustained a hamstring injury during spring training and hasn’t played in a game yet. Right-hander Pablo Lopez, the club’s Opening Day starter, landed on the IL because of his own hamstring injury after three starts. An oblique strain has kept utilityman Willi Castro, an All-Star last season, off the field since April 16. The Twins, meanwhile, have sunk to fourth place in the competitive AL Central, ahead of only the White Sox. — Castillo


Record: 11-13
Previous ranking: 27

Is it too soon to be on record watch? Probably, but the Nationals have lots of reasons to be excited about MacKenzie Gore, who is on pace to make a run at 300 strikeouts this season. He already has produced a pair of 13-strikeout starts and was leading the NL in whiffs after his last start against Colorado. The Nationals’ single-season mark is 300 on the nose, established by Max Scherzer in 2018. The champ from the Expos portion of the franchise’s history is Pedro Martinez, who struck out 305 in 1997. It’s heady company for Gore, long touted as an elite prospect who is on the verge of establishing himself as an elite big league pitcher. — Doolittle


Record: 10-15
Previous ranking: 28

The Pirates’ first month has been marked by controversy. The opening homestand was tainted by the removal of Roberto Clemente signage in the right-field portion of PNC Park. Then there were the personalized fan bricks that were extracted from outside the ballpark without an initial explanation. Then came this past Saturday — a day when fans lined the Clemente Bridge to receive a Paul Skenes bobblehead, then crammed into the ballpark and filled the air with “sell the team” chants for Pirates’ frugal owner Bob Nutting. Skenes, who will start at Dodger Stadium on Friday, continues to look dominant, posting a 2.87 ERA through his first five starts. But everything around him continues to be a mess. — Gonzalez


Record: 5-19
Previous ranking: 29

The White Sox are losing far more than they’re winning. That’s expected and won’t alter their long-term plans. But Luis Robert Jr. not being good could have a significant impact. Ideally, the veteran center fielder would have dashed to a fast start and had contenders throwing trade offers with top-end prospects at the White Sox to sort through before the trade deadline. But Robert is slashing .145/.267/.250 with 27 strikeouts in 22 games. That won’t attract the kind of haul the White Sox seek as they continue their painfully thorough rebuild. — Castillo


Record: 4-18
Previous ranking: 30

It was a mere three weeks into the season when the Rockies determined that a drastic change was necessary. On the afternoon of April 17, they announced the firing of hitting coach Hensley Meulens and replaced him with longtime manager Clint Hurdle, who had taken on an advisory role with the organization. The Rockies were in the midst of a six-game losing streak then, during which they had accumulated only 12 runs — seven of which had come the night before. Things have not gotten much better since. Hurdle, of course, is no wizard. The Rockies hold the third-lowest OPS in the majors and its worst record, all while playing in the sport’s most difficult division. It will be another long season in Colorado. — Gonzalez

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‘Consensus has got to be rebuilt’: Harriet Harman reacts to gender ruling on Electoral Dysfunction podcast

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'Consensus has got to be rebuilt': Harriet Harman reacts to gender ruling on Electoral Dysfunction podcast

The Supreme Court ruling on the definition of a woman has “clarified” the 2010 Equality Act, Harriet Harman has said – as she urged people to feel “confident they can use their common sense”.

The Labour peer and former minister put forward the Equality Bill, now the Equality Act 2010, which protects people from discrimination in the workplace and in wider society.

The legislation had become the centre of controversy in the debate about transgender rights as it was not clear whether the term “sex” referred to biological sex or “certificated” sex as legally defined by the 2004 Gender Recognition Act (GRA).

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Last week, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that the definition of a “woman” and “sex” in the Equality Act 2010 refers to “a biological woman and biological sex”.

It means that some single-sex service providers will be able to exclude trans women if they deem it proportionate and necessary.

But speaking to Beth Rigby on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Baroness Harman said the providers of single-sex spaces were always able to do this under the Act.

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She said: “What we’ve got to do now, is with the Supreme Court having clarified what we said all along in the 2010 act, that consensus has got to be rebuilt.

“I strongly believe that most people don’t like to see trans people discriminated against and persecuted, and they want to just live and let live and let people get on and live the best lives they can.

“And most people understand that if you’re dealing with women who’ve been traumatised by male violence, it might be that actually a trans woman there prevents them feeling they can be comfortable in a refuge or in a counselling session.”

During the podcast, Baroness Harman, Beth Rigby and Baroness Davidson were played audio sent in from Ellie, a 25-year-old trans woman from Glasgow.

She said she was “devastated” by last week’s ruling.

“I’m scared and I am angry,” she said.

“I don’t think there’s clarity yet as to what this ruling actually means for my community in law.

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“The GRA has now been rendered practically meaningless, and the UK government could respond by saying ‘yep, fair enough, let’s get them updated so that we can make sure that trans people are respected and protected in society for who they are’, but instead, they’ve pounced on us – with government ministers even suggesting that trans women can’t use women’s spaces like toilets.

“I mean, where am I supposed to go?

“It’s clearly not safe for so many trans women like me to use the men’s toilets, not to mention completely dehumanising.

“It’s not appropriate for a male police officer to get to pat down my chest, and it’s also clearly completely unworkable.”

She added: “This whole thing is being done under the guise of making some women feel safer, while actually making so many of us, whether trans or not, materially less safe, and I don’t even think we’d be having this conversation if the media and some politicians hadn’t spent the past five years demonising us.

“It just feels so, so cowardly and cruel.”

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