Germany is the ‘sick man of Europe’ — and it’s causing a shift to the right, top economist says
Germany is once again the “sick man of Europe,” according to Hans-Werner Sinn, president emeritus at the Ifo institute, and the challenges that poses, particularly in terms of the country’s energy strategy, could serve to benefit increasingly popular right-wing parties.
The “sick man of Europe” moniker has resurfaced in recent weeks as manufacturing output continues to stutter in the region’s largest economy and the country grapples with high energy prices. The label was originally used to describe the German economy in 1998 as it navigated the costly challenges of a post-reunification economy.
“It is not a short-term phenomenon,” Sinn told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy on Friday.
It “has to do with the automobile industry, which is the heart of the German industry and many things hinge on that,” he said. Cars were Germany’s main export product last year, accounting for 15.6% of the value of goods sold abroad, federal statistics office data shows.
Germany reported a foreign trade deficit for the first time in decades in May 2022, totaling 1 billion euros ($1.03 billion). The country had briefly shifted from a trade surplus to importing more than it exports.
Germany has since returned to a trade surplus, which came to 18.7 billion euros in June 2023, according to the federal statistics office, but exports remain sluggish.
Plunge in business sentiment
Sinn said investor doubts about the feasibility of Germany’s sustainability goals also play into the description of the country as the “sick man of Europe.”
One target currently in the sights of the German government is becoming carbon neutral by 2045. These plans came into sharp focus as Europe looked to detach itself from Russian gas supplies following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and prices shot up.
Some described Germany’s ambitions to move away from Russian gas as “wildly optimistic,” particularly in light of the country’s climate targets.
Rain falls over the finance district and the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany.
Thomas Lohnes | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum, Sinn said a reliance on renewable technologies such as wind and solar would cause a “volatility problem,” which could pose issues for businesses.
“You need to fill [those gaps] with conventional energy so it’s very difficult to have this double structure which we will have to sustain in the future. On the one hand the green volatile energy and on the other hand the conventional energy to fill the gaps,” he said.
“This is double cost. This is high energy cost and this is not good for industry. It is a difficult course.”
Germany could lose 2% to 3% of its current industrial capacity as companies move operations to countries where gas and electricity are cheaper, such as the U.S. or Saudi Arabia, according to a research note released in August by Berenberg.
Uncertainty about energy prices has likely contributed to a “plunge” in business sentiment, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, wrote in the note. He added that “the current policy uncertainty and the dismay about half-baked government plans are not structural factors that look set to hold back the German economy for long.”
There is a backlash clearly … The population is now moving to the right.
Hans-Werner Sinn
President emeritus at the Ifo institute
But there are growing signs of public disenchantment in the shift to a more sustainable Europe, with a so-called “greenlash” emerging as people feel the cost impacts.
Sinn suggested there would be political ramifications as a result of the focus on sustainability.
“There is a backlash clearly … The population is now moving to the right,” Sinn said, referring to the popularity of the right-leaning Alternative for Germany party, which won a district council election for the first time in June.
“I am not moving to evaluate anything here, but … the policies which were, for ideological reasons, completely overdrawn … Pragmatism is a little bit missing in current policy,” he added.
Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
The Stripe logo on a smartphone with U.S. dollar banknotes in the background.
Budrul Chukrut | SOPA Images | LightRocket via Getty Images
Stripe cut 300 jobs, representing about 3.5% of its workforce, mostly in product, engineering and operations, CNBC has confirmed.
The payments company, valued at about $70 billion in the private markets, still expects to increase headcount by 10,000 by the end of the year, which would be a 17% increase, and is “not slowing down hiring,” according to a memo to staff from Chief People Office Rob McIntosh. Business Insider reported earlier on the cuts and the memo.
A Stripe spokesperson also confirmed to CNBC that a cartoon image of a duck with text that read, “US-Non-California Duck,” was accidentally attached as a PDF to emails sent to some of the employees who were laid off. Some of the emails mistakenly provided affected employees with an incorrect termination date, the spokesperson said.
McIntosh sent a follow-up email to staffers apologizing for the “notification error” and “any confusion it caused.”
“Corrected and full notifications have since been sent to all impacted Stripes,” he wrote.
In 2022, Stripe cut roughly 1,100 jobs, or 14% of its workers, downsizing alongside most of the tech industry, as soaring inflation and rising interest rates forced companies to focus on profits over growth. The Information reported that Stripe had a few dozen layoffs in its recruiting department in 2023.
Stripe’s valuation sank from a peak of $95 billion in 2021 to $50 billion in 2023, before reportedly rebounding to $70 billion last year as part of a secondary share sale. The company ranked third on last year’s CNBC Disruptor 50 list.
In October, Stripe agreed to pay $1.1 billion for crypto startup Bridge Network, whose technology is focused on making it easy for businesses to transact using digital currencies.
Brothers Patrick and John Collison, who founded Stripe in 2010, have intentionally steered clear of the public markets and have given no indication that an offering is on the near-term horizon. Total payment volume at the company surpassed $1 trillion in 2023.
WATCH: Early Bridge investor weighs in on $1.1 billion Stripe deal
Thinking about upgrading your EV? Rivian (RIVN) launched a new promo on Tuesday, offering up to $6,000 to upgrade your R1S or R1T. Here’s how you can snag some savings.
Rivian R1S and R1T upgrade deal offers up to $6,000
Rivian delivered over 51,500 vehicles last year as the EV maker gains momentum. Although it was only slightly higher than the ~50,100 delivered in 2023, Rivian is expected to see even more growth this year.
After shutting down its Normal, IL manufacturing plant last April and renegotiating supplier contracts, Rivian has seen “significant cost improvements,” according to CEO RJ Scaringe.
Rivian also began delivering its next-gen R1S and R1T models last year. The new Large and Max battery packs have redesigned modules and more efficient packaging, “making them easier to manufacture and service.” For example, Rivian’s new EVs use seven ECUs, down from 17 in the first-generation R1T and R1S.
With new plant upgrades, reworked supplier contracts, and more efficient vehicles, Rivian is now passing the savings on to customers.
Rivian introduced a new promo on Tuesday, offering up to $6,000 to upgrade your R1T or R1S. The bonus amount varies by trim:
- Tri with Max battery: $6,000 USD / CAD 8,600
- Dual with Max battery and Performance upgrade: $4,500 USD / CAD 6,500
- Dual with Max battery: $3,000 USD / CAD 4,300
The offer is for current R1T or R1S owners or lessees in the US and Canada. Rivian launched the new promo on January 21, and it runs through March 31, 2025.
After you purchase or lease a qualifying vehicle, Rivian will apply a discount toward the MSRP. You must take delivery by March 31, 2025. In the fine print, Rivian stated, “You must request a trade-in estimate to qualify for this offer, but trade-in of a vehicle is not required.”
Any other models are excluded from the offer. These include Dual Standard configurations, Dual with Large battery configurations, custom builds, demo vehicles, and pre-owned vehicles.
The new offer follows Rivian’s previous upgrade promo introduced last October, giving qualifying gas-powered vehicle owners or lessees up to $3,000.
Check out the Rivian R1 Shop to view eligible models. You can see eligible Rivian R1S here and R1T models here.
Electrek’s Take
Rivian’s R1S was already the tenth best-selling electric vehicle in the US last year, with nearly 27,000 models sold. With more driving range and power at a lower cost, the electric SUV could see even more demand in 2025.
Then again, with the arrival of new luxury electric SUVs, like the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volvo EX90, Rivian will face more competition in the US.
Rivian’s latest promo comes as the Company looks to carry the momentum from the end of 2024 into the new year. The EV maker is offering other deals, including 1.99% APR for 60 months on the R1 Dual with a Max Battery and Performance upgrade.
Even if you are not eligible for the promo, we can still help you find deals on Rivian’s electric SUV in your area. You can use our links below to view offers on the Rivian R1S and R1T near you today.
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