Has China’s economy run out of steam?

Published

2 years ago

September 4, 2023

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The southern Chinese city of Zunyi is awash with signs the nation’s economy is not in good health.

Everywhere you look there are unfinished infrastructure projects; empty apartments, half-constructed tunnels, huge projects where, it seems, the money just ran out.

It is a symbol of a system that is stuttering.

The mighty Chinese economy, that once delivered seemingly miraculous growth of some 10% plus a year, is slowing.

Cracks, driven by structural weaknesses that were once easy to pave over, have started to appear.

The economic model of driving up GDP with vast borrowing and building worked when China was poor and needed new roads, bridges and airports, but it is no longer sustainable in a modern China that now finds itself drowning in debt and with nothing left to build.

There are big questions about what happens next.

In Zunyi, one road in particular speaks volumes about the troubles now plaguing parts of the system.

Snaking over parts of the city, the Funxin Expressway is a multilane highway that cost 4bn yuan to build, but sections now lie incomplete and abandoned.

On one side, a handful of cars occasionally drive by, the other is completely empty save for a few locals who now use it to take a stroll or walk their dogs.

There is something almost eerie about walking along it – a sense that the area has been somewhat forgotten.

A local woman, Mrs Chen, tells us the bridge has been like this for ten years.

“A lot of land was taken, many people had to move away,” she says.

“Why has the construction just stopped?” she asks, “This is a government fund, I think they didn’t use the money for anything. I think it’s been wasted.”

When we asked local authorities, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Zunyi branch said the expressway was completed on 31 August 2023 (just two days after we visited) and is scheduled to be put in use the first half of September.

They added the local government “actively encourages and guides construction companies and developers to move forward with construction in an orderly fashion,” and that the government “strictly follows national and provincial rules and regulations on investment and management”.

On the other side of a small hill, I find the connecting tunnel, where the project has come to an abrupt stop.

Opposite the entrance of the tunnel are huge concrete pillars where construction was clearly meant to continue and beyond that, blocks of homes vacated and marked for demolition – lives moved on to make space.

There are just a few residents who have hung on here, including Shi Chunli who has lived here for 40 years.

She claims to have given the authorities her property in exchange for a new apartment elsewhere.

“They said we would have a new apartment in three years” she says, “it will be the fifth year this September, but everything is still the same.”

And she has a pretty clear idea as to why her life is in this limbo.

“It’s mainly that there is no money. The state does not have any money left.”

There are projects like this across China, but there is a particularly high concentration in Guizhou province, where Zunyi is located.

In fact, Guizhou province, one of the poorest in the country, is also the most indebted with its debt pile over 135% of its GDP.

This rural province leaned heavily into the Chinese growth model that for so long delivered such remarkable numbers: huge borrowing, massive investment and vast building – regardless of whether the projects were needed.

Indeed, Guizhou has 11 airports, many quite close to each other, and nearly half of the world’s 100 tallest bridges, according to state media outlet Economic Daily.

It is a model that has been replicated throughout the country. Investment has made up an average of 44% of China’s economy in recent years, for which experts say there is “no remotely comparable historical precedent”.

But while this model made sense when China was playing catch up, it has now become a major liability.

The government has few places to turn to deliver the high growth it has become accustomed to.

But this is a problem the government cannot ‘invest’ its way out of, as it has in the face of previous economic challenges.

As many experts will point out, this level of unproductive investment has been a symptom of the Chinese economy for many years, so why is it biting now?

It is largely because other parts of the economy are struggling – exposing the fault lines at its core.

Last month, prices in China actually fell when compared to the same month last year, raising fears of more long-term deflation.

The key issue is that consumer demand simply hasn’t bounced back post-pandemic as China’s leaders hoped it would.

Months of zero-COVID rules that saw whole cities plunged into sudden extreme lockdowns destroyed thousands of businesses and vastly depleted family savings.

The net result is that people just don’t have the money to spend, and what they do have they are reluctant to part with (China’s saving rate is one of the highest in the world according to the IMF).

These trends were clear in some of the smaller markets around Zunyi.

“Business is bad now,” one stall holder told us, “it’s getting worse year after year.”

And why?

“The pandemic,” she says, “the impact of the pandemic is too big.”

There are other issues too, highly interventionist government policy that cracked down on certain industries like tech and private tutoring have left certain sectors crippled and foreign investment nervous.

And in this environment millions of young people are struggling to find work; the number of 16-year-olds out of work in June was a record 21.3%.

The government has since stopped publishing these figures, but experts fear the true number may be much higher.

But perhaps most threatening of all is the deep crisis in the housing market.

In a similar way to local government spending on infrastructure, Chinese developers have spent years borrowing huge sums to build millions of apartments, often pre-selling them to buyers before construction was complete.

Following moves by the central government in 2021 to try and curb this excessive borrowing, many found themselves unable to afford their debt payments and some like Evergrande, once one of China’s biggest developers, defaulted.

It plunged the market into a crisis which it has struggled to recover from, leaving many buyers with unfinished homes and many others unwilling to invest in property.

Prices have fallen and there have been huge knock-on impacts on industries that service construction.

This month, the spotlight has been on Country Garden, another Chinese developer, once considered a safe pair of hands, as it too struggled to make a scheduled bond payment.

Shares in the firm have rallied, however, following reports it has agreed a deal with creditors to make the payments in instalments over the next three years.

There are fears about how all this will play out and whether it will affect the rest of the world.

With the Chinese economy facing increasing global scrutiny, President Xi Jinping has surprised commentators by signalling he will not attend this weekend’s G20 summit in India. Premier Li Qiang will attend instead.

But experts insist there almost certainly won’t be a major financial crash.

“It’s very unlikely because the financial breakdown is really a balance sheet breakdown,” explains Michael Pettis, a renowned expert on the Chinese economy and professor at Peking University.

“In China, the regulators are so powerful, and they can restructure liabilities at will, so that you will never have a balance sheet breakdown.

“Over the long-term, that’s a bad thing because it means that the necessary adjustment is much slower than otherwise. But from a social and political point of view, that’s a good thing, particularly over the short-term.”

What is most likely, he and other experts insist, is that China sees a more prolonged period of slow down and re-adjustment in its economy akin to what happened to Japan from the 1990s onwards.

There will, however, likely be some pain to come for ordinary Chinese people as this slow but ultimately necessary process plays itself out.

Business

UK economy grows – ONS

Published

8 hours ago

April 11, 2025

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The economy performed better than expected in February, growing by 0.5% according to official figures released on Friday, but comes ahead of an expected hit from the global trade war.

The standard measure of an economy’s value, gross domestic product (GDP), rose in part thanks to a suprisingly strong performance from the manufacturing sector, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested.

Following the publication of the figures, the British pound rose against the dollar, jumping 0.4% against the greenback to $1.3019 within an hour.

Analysts had been forecasting just a 0.1% GDP hike in the lead-up to the announcement, according to data from LSEG.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves described the results as “encouraging”, but struck a cautious tone when alluding to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the economic volatility of the past week.

“The world has changed, and we have witnessed that change in recent weeks,” she said.

“I know this is an anxious time for families who are worried about the cost of living and British businesses who are worried about what this change means for them,” Ms Reeves added. “This government will remain pragmatic and cool-headed as we seek to secure the best deal with the United States that is in our national interest.”

But back in February, when Mr Trump was just beginning his second term in office, the UK’s economy looked to be on firmer ground.

Service sectors like computer programming, telecoms and car dealerships all had strong a month, while manufacturing industries such as electronics and pharmaceuticals also helped to drive GDP growth in February.

Car manufacturing also picked up after its recent poor performance.

“The economy grew strongly in February with widespread growth across both services and manufacturing industries,” said Liz McKeown, ONS Director of Economic Statistics.

While motor vehicle manufacturing and retail both grew in February 2025, they remain below February 2024 levels by 10.1% and 1.1% respectively

This aligns with industry data showing year-on-year declines in registrations and manufacturing.

“The UK economy expanded by 0.5% in February, surprising but welcome positive news,” said Hailey Low, Associate Economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

“However, heightened global uncertainty and escalating trade tensions mean the outlook remains uncertain, with a likely reduced growth rate this year due to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements.”

Ms Low said that this could create a dilemma for Ms Reeves, who would face difficult decisions later in the year when the chancellor presents her next budget.

The latest data also shows a jump from January, when the economy was flat. And compared to the same month a year ago, GDP was 1.4% higher in February 2025.

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Business

How market turmoil has affected mortgages, savings, holidays and fuel

Published

1 day ago

April 10, 2025

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How market turmoil has affected mortgages, savings, holidays and fuel

Global financial markets have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past few days, but now, with President Donald Trump having paused his “retaliatory” tariffs, the situation should stabilise.

Here, we outline how the pound in your pocket has been affected.

Stock markets, bonds and currencies moved sharply after Mr Trump put a 90-day pause on tariffs other than the base 10% tax slapped on almost all imports to the US. China still faces a levy of 125% on the goods it exports to the US.

But there have still been some impactful changes since his so-called “liberation day” tariff announcement last week.

So, what’s happened?

Well, last week two more interest rate cuts were expected by the end of this year, but now traders are pricing in three cuts by the Bank of England.

Borrowing will become cheaper as the interest rate is now anticipated to be brought down more than previously thought, to 3.75% by the end of 2025 from the current 4.5%.

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It’s not exactly for a good reason, though. The trade war means the UK economy is forecast to grow less.

This lower growth is what’s making observers think the Bank will cut rates sooner – making borrowing cheaper can lead to more spending. Increased spending can stimulate economic growth.

What does this all mean for you?

Some debts, like credit card bills, will become a bit cheaper.

Mortgages

Crucially for anyone soon to re-fix their rate, this means mortgage costs are falling.

Already, the typical two and five-year fixed rate deals are coming down, according to data from financial information company Moneyfacts.

After weeks where the average rate would fall only once or twice, there have been larger and daily falls, the data shows.

As of Thursday, the typical rate for a five-year deal is 5.14%, and 5.29% for the average two-year fixed mortgage.

If the interest rate expectations remain, by the end of the year, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate will fall to 4.3% if a person is borrowing 75% of the property’s value, according to analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Filling up your car

Another positive that’s motivated by a negative is the reduced fuel cost to the motorist of filling up their vehicle.

The oil price fell due to rising fears of a recession in the world’s biggest economy. Now that those concerns have somewhat subsided, the oil price has remained comparatively low at $63.75 for a barrel of the benchmark Brent crude.

It’s far below the average price of $80 from last year.

This lower cost is likely to filter down to cheaper prices at the pump within days as the sharp oil price drops hit at the end of last week.

Lower oil costs could help bring down costs overall, lowering inflation, as oil is still used in many parts of the supply chain.

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Savings

Lower interest rates mean falling savings rates, so savers can expect to get less of a return in the coming months.

Anyone with a stocks and shares ISA (Individual Savings Account) is likely to get a shock when they see the decline in their returns.

Holidays

It’s not the best time to be heading off on a trip to a country that uses the euro. The pound hasn’t strayed far from buying €1.16, a low last seen in August.

It means your pound doesn’t go as far, as you’re getting less euro.

Against the dollar, however, sterling has risen to $1.29.

The exchange rate had been higher in the immediate wake of Mr Trump’s tariff announcement as the dollar value sank. At that point, you could briefly have bought $1.32 for a pound.

Supermarket shopping

Helpfully, the UK’s biggest and most popular UK supermarket, Tesco, updated us that it expects tariffs will have a “relatively small impact”.

Business

Donald Trump has finally blinked – but it’s not the stock markets that have forced him to act

Published

2 days ago

April 9, 2025

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Donald Trump has finally blinked - but it's not the stock markets that have forced him to act

Chalk this one up to the bond vigilantes.

This is the term used periodically to describe investors who push back against what are perceived to be irresponsible fiscal or monetary policies by selling government bonds, in the process pushing up yields, or implied borrowing costs.

Most of the focus on markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the rest of the world has, in the last week, been about the calamitous stock market reaction.

This was previously something that was assumed to have been taken seriously by Mr Trump.

During his first term in the White House, the president took the strength of US equities – in particular the S&P 500 – as being a barometer of the success, or otherwise, of his administration.

He had, over the last week, brushed off the sour equity market reaction to his tariffs as being akin to “medicine” that had to be taken to rectify what he perceived as harmful trade imbalances around the world.

But, as ever, it is the bond markets that have forced Mr Trump to blink – and, make no mistake, blink is what he has done.

To begin with, following the imposition of his tariffs – which were justified by some cockamamie mathematics and a spurious equation complete with Greek characters – bond prices rose as equities sold off.

That was not unusual: big sell-offs in equities, such as those seen in 1987 and in 2008, tend to be accompanied by rallies in bonds.

However, this week has seen something altogether different, with equities continuing to crater and US government bonds following suit.

At the beginning of the week yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as the safest of safe haven investments, were at 4.00%.

By early yesterday, they had risen to 4.51%, a huge jump by the standards of most investors. This is important.

The 10-year yield helps determine the interest rate on a whole clutch of financial products important to ordinary Americans, including mortgages, car loans and credit card borrowing.

By pushing up the yield on such a security, the bond investors were doing their stuff. It is not over-egging things to say that this was something akin to what Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng experienced when the latter unveiled his mini-budget in October 2022.

And, as with the aftermath to that event, the violent reaction in bonds was caused by forced selling.

Now part of the selling appears to have been down to investors concluding, probably rightly, that Mr Trump’s tariffs would inject a big dose of inflation into the US economy – and inflation is the enemy of all bond investors.

Part of it appears to be due to the fact the US Treasury had on Tuesday suffered the weakest demand in nearly 18 months for $58bn worth of three-year bonds that it was trying to sell.

But in this particular case, the selling appears to have been primarily due to investors, chiefly hedge funds, unwinding what are known as ‘basis trades’ – in simple terms a strategy used to profit from the difference between a bond priced at, say, $100 and a futures contract for that same bond priced at, say, $105.

In ordinary circumstances, a hedge fund might buy the bond at $100 and sell the futures contract at $105 and make a profit when the two prices converge, in what is normally a relatively risk-free trade.

So risk-free, in fact, that hedge funds will ‘leverage’ – or borrow heavily – themselves to maximise potential returns.

The sudden and violent fall in US Treasuries this week reflected the fact that hedge funds were having to close those trades by selling Treasuries.

Confronted by a potential hike in borrowing costs for millions of American homeowners, consumers and businesses, the White House has decided to rein back its tariffs, rightly so.

It was immediately rewarded by a spectacular rally in equity markets – the Nasdaq enjoyed its second-best-ever day, and its best since 2001, while the S&P 500 enjoyed its third-best session since World War Two – and by a rally in US Treasuries.

The influential Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs immediately trimmed its forecast of the probability of a US recession this year from 65% to 45%.

Of course, Mr Trump will not admit he has blinked, claiming last night some investors had got “a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid”.

And it is perfectly possible that markets face more volatile days ahead: the spectre of Mr Trump’s tariffs being reinstated 90 days from now still looms and a full-blown trade war between the US and China is now raging.

But Mr Trump has blinked. The bond vigilantes have brought him to heel. This president, who by his aggressive use of emergency executive powers had appeared to be more powerful than any of his predecessors, will never seem quite so powerful again.