It’s been a crazy few years for the cost of many services and essentials, with fuel prices among the bills enduring something of a roller-coaster ride.
Pump prices during the COVID pandemic sank as low as £1.07 a litre for petrol and £1.11 for diesel as demand fell off a cliff due to lockdowns.
As the economy reopened, costs rose sharply while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine saw pump prices for both fuels hit record levels nearer £2.
Today, prices are well below those peaks but, as RAC Fuel Watch data has shown, August saw unleaded rise by almost 7p a litre, with diesel up by 8p.
Average costs are back above £1.50 for both and the hikes are set to be reflected in the next set of inflation figures which will likely place pressure on PM Rishi Sunak’s pledge to halve the rate of inflation this year.
The single biggest factor behind fuel price shifts is the cost of oil.
At the heart of this, like in any market, is supply and demand – with some speculative trading thrown in for good measure.
While Western economies do not tolerate price fixing behaviour, it is at the heart of the oil market and there is no mechanism to stop it.
Image: A barrel of Brent crude oil cost more than $110 in 2014
That is because prices are largely at the mercy of the so-called OPEC+ cartel – a group of 23 oil-producing nations that account for more than 80% of world crude reserves and more than 40% of global output.
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The Saudi-led organisation, which includes Russia, sets production targets aimed at keeping prices nicely profitable, reacting to global shocks and demand shifts, as appropriate, to meet their shared goals.
UK fuel prices lag, generally by a few weeks, the cost of oil.
The recent performance for Brent crude would suggest more fuel price hikes are in the pipeline.
The contract for November delivery stood at $88 a barrel on Monday.
Last month saw a low of $84 and peak of $86 amid continuing production cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance to support the market.
The latest spike is partly explained by expectations that the key OPEC+ players will, this week, extend their production cuts to October.
The cartel’s cuts reflect worries that a slowing global economy – largely a consequence of rising interest rates to tackle inflation – is a risk to demand and, therefore, prices.
The particular concern for members is the crisis facing China’s economy, threatening a return to the pandemic-era when supply was outstripping demand.
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2:36
How will China’s economy affect UK?
But there is every reason to believe that oil costs may be near their peak – barring any further shocks.
Analysts say effects from the peak US holiday driving season are likely to weigh on oil prices in the coming days now the summer is over.
A recent survey by the Reuters news agency, which is independent of OPEC+, also showed the first monthly rise in output by the cartel since February during August.
When it comes to fuel prices, motoring groups have also expressed hope that recent regulatory scrutiny on pump prices will continue to weigh.
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July: Drivers paid extra for fuel in 2022
Its fuel spokesman, Simon Williams, said: “Wholesale costs for both petrol and diesel started to rise in late July on the back of oil hitting $85.
“While the barrel price has stayed at that level throughout August, retailers had no choice but to pass on their increased costs at the pumps.
“Fortunately for drivers though, they have clearly been influenced by the CMA’s investigation as, all of a sudden, margins are once again closer to their longer-term averages.
“It appears they used the wholesale price rise to subtly cover their tracks – after all, big reductions at the pumps soon after the CMA’s findings were announced would perhaps have been far too obvious a step.
“All we can hope is that this move by many big retailers back to fairer forecourt pricing remains when wholesale costs go down again. Only time will tell.”
The worrying reality though is that while regulation can, and has, had an impact, ultimately the power over the prices we pay at the pumps is in the hands of a unregulated cartel.
Monzo, the digital bank which counts one in five British adults among its customers, is closing in on the appointment of investment bankers to spearhead a stock market listing valuing it at more than £6bn.
Sky News has learnt that Monzo is working with Morgan Stanley, the Wall Street giant, on a series of meetings with potential investors ahead of an initial public offering which could take place as early as the first half next year.
People close to the company said this weekend that bankers would be formally hired to work on the listing within months, with Morgan Stanley now expected to be handed a key role on the deal.
The timing, size and location of an IPO are still to be determined and will depend on market conditions in London and New York, both of which have been buffeted by Donald Trump’s introduction of swingeing trade tariffs.
However, London is currently seen as the most likely listing venue for Monzo by board members and investors, according to people close to the situation.
The company, which saw its valuation soar to £4.5bn last year after primary and secondary share sales, is considering a further sale of existing shares to allow early investors and employees to cash in, although a decision to proceed has not yet been taken.
Monzo has more than 11m UK retail customers, making it the seventh-largest British bank by customer numbers, and 600,000 business customers.
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Founded a decade ago, it has become one of Britain’s most successful, and valuable, fintech companies.
It employs close to 4,000 people.
Last year, it raised more than £500m by selling newly issued shares to a group of investors led by Capital G, a division of Alphabet-owned Google.
That primary share sale valued the business at £4.1bn.
An IPO, including any new capital raised, would be likely to value Monzo at more than £6bn, and potentially in the region of £7bn, according to banking sources.
Last year’s secondary share sale saw existing Monzo investors StepStone Group and GIC, the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund, buying stock from employees.
The company is now profitable and has diversified into investments and instant access savings accounts.
It has also launched pensions products and accounts aimed at under-16s.
Monzo is among a new generation of banks which have emerged since the last financial crisis and begun to accumulate a significant share of the UK retail banking market.
Rivals include Starling Bank and Revolut, which was valued at $45bn in its last fundraising and was awarded a banking licence by British regulators last year after a protracted process.
Monzo has recovered spectacularly from a difficult period in 2020 when it emerged that the City watchdog was investigating it for potential breaches of anti-money laundering and financial crime rules.
It has revamped its corporate structure as it pursues an international expansion aimed at enticing new investors to its strategy for long-term growth.
The company has been exploring acquisition opportunities in the US and Europe, although a major deal is not thought to be imminent.
Monzo Bank Holding Group was established to avoid the company facing punitive capital treatment by British regulators as it launches in new overseas markets.
Other Monzo investors include the Chinese group Tencent, Passion Capital, Accel, General Catalyst and Hedosophia.
Monzo is run by TS Anil, its chief executive, and chaired by Gary Hoffman, the banker who salvaged Northern Rock after its nationalisation in 2008.
This weekend, a Monzo spokesperson declined to comment.
Donald Trump has floated the idea of cutting US trade tariffs against China to 80% – as key peace talks between the sides prepare to get under way.
The weekend meeting, involving top officials from both nations in Switzerland, is seen as an opportunity to ease the most damaging and punitive element of the trade war.
At stake for both sides is not only a deteriorating domestic outlook but a weakening global economy.
Writing on his Truth Social platform, hours after agreeing an interim deal with the UK, the president said: “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B [Bessent].”
It means the decision will lie with Scott Bessent – the US treasury secretary who will lead the US delegation at the talks in Geneva.
The outcome is eagerly awaited after several rounds of tariff hikes that currently total duties of 125% on US imports to China and 145% on Chinese goods arriving in America.
Both levels amount to an effective trade embargo, given the severity of the numbers. A 80% figure against China would remain hugely restrictive.
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Trump: Tariffs are making US ‘rich’
But the announcement of talks in Switzerland this week has been welcomed broadly – across financial markets too, with the dollar and global stocks rising on Friday in hopeful anticipation of a cooling in the trade hostilities between the world’s two largest economies.
Investors are not only concerned by higher, if not extortionate, prices but also the impact on supply.
The effects are being felt in both economies already.
Fears of a trade war effectively meant that the US economy contracted during the first three months of the year, while the US central bank has held off on interest rate cuts on the grounds that tariffs applied to imports by the Trump administration globally will lift inflation markedly.
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3:43
China’s Silicon Valley: ‘It’s our time to battle’
Official data out of China is yet to show any obvious pain, but surveys suggest factory orders are tumbling.
The fact that China is suffering was borne out on Wednesday when the country’s central bank cut interest rates and reduced bank reserve requirements to help free up more funding for lending.
The authorities also agreed wider borrowing facilities to help manufacturers.
It will be hoped that bolstering activity in the economy will help lift prices generally, as China continues to battle deflation.
Officially, China has signalled that it wants the US to make the first concession.
Its delegation in Geneva is led by vice premier He Lifeng – a figure within China who has gained an international reputation as an effective negotiator.
A commerce ministry spokesperson said of the prospects for a breakthrough when confirming the talks: “The Chinese side carefully evaluated the information from the US side and decided to agree to have contact with the US side after fully considering global expectations, Chinese interests and calls from US businesses and consumers.”
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told Sky’s US partner CNBC on Friday: “Everything that’s been going on with the meeting in Switzerland is very promising to us.
“We’re seeing extreme respect, treating both sides with respect. We’re seeing collegiality and also sketches of positive developments.”
Sir Keir Starmer was at home in Downing Street, watching Arsenal lose in the Champions League, when he got a call from Donald Trump that he thought presented the chance to snatch victory from the jaws of trading defeat.
The president’s call was a characteristic last-minute flex intended to squeeze a little more out of the prime minister.
It was enough to persuade Sir Keir and his business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, dining with industry bosses across London at Mansion House, that they had to seize the opportunity.
The result, hurriedly announced via presidential conference call, is not the broad trade deal of Brexiteer dreams, and is certainly not a free-trade agreement.
It’s a narrow agreement that secures immediate relief for a handful of sectors most threatened by Mr Trump’s swingeing tariffs, with a promise of a broader renegotiation of “reciprocal” 10% tariffs to come.
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‘A fantastic, historic day’
Most pressing was the car industry, which Mr Reynolds said was facing imminent announcements of “very difficult news” at Britain’s biggest brands, including Jaguar Land Rover, which sounds like code for redundancies.
In place of the 25% tariffs imposed last month, a 10% tariff will apply to a quota of 100,000 vehicles a year, less than the 111,000 exported to the US in 2024, but close enough for a deal.
It still leaves the car sector far worse off than it was before “liberation day”, but, with one in four exports crossing the Atlantic, ministers reason it’s better than no deal, and crucially offers more favourable terms than any major US trading partner can claim.
For steel and aluminium zero tariffs were secured, along with what sounds like a commitment to work with the US to prevent Chinese dumping. That is a clear win and fundamental for the ailing industries in Britain, though modest in broad terms, with US exports worth only around £400m a year.
Image: US and UK announced trade deal
In exchange, the UK has had to open up access to food and agricultural products, starting with beef and ethanol, used for fuel and food production.
In place of tariff quotas on beef that applied on either side (12% in the UK and 20% in America) 13,000 tonnes of beef can flow tariff-free in either direction, around 1.5% of the UK market.
The biggest wins
Crucially, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) production standards that apply to food and animal products, and prevent the sale of hormone-treated meat, will remain. Mr Trump even suggested the US was moving towards “no chemical” European standards.
This may be among the biggest wins, as it leaves open the prospect of an easing of SPS checks on trade with the European Union, a valuable reduction in red tape that is the UK’s priority in reset negotiations with Brussels.
Farmers also believe the US offers an opportunity for their high-quality, grass-fed beef, though there is concern that the near-doubling of ethanol quotas is a threat to domestic production.
Technology deals to come?
There were broad commitments to do deals on technology, AI and an “economic security blanket”, and much hope rests on the US’s promise of “preferential terms” when it comes to pharmaceuticals and other sectors.
There was no mention of proposed film tariffs, still unclear even in the Oval Office.
Taken together, officials describe these moves as “banking sectoral wins” while they continue to try and negotiate down the remaining tariffs.
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The challenge from here is that Mr Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff is not reciprocal at all. As commerce secretary Howard Lutnick proudly pointed out in the Oval Office, tariffs on US trade have fallen to less than 2%, while the UK’s have risen to 10%.
As a consequence, UK exporters remain in a materially worse position than they were at the start of April, though better than it was before the president’s call, and for now, several British industries have secured concessions that no other country can claim.
From a protectionist, capricious president, this might well be the best deal on offer.
Quite what incentive Mr Trump will have to renegotiate the blanket tariff, and what the UK has left to give up by way of compromise, remains to be seen. Sir Keir will hope that, unlike the vanquished Arsenal, he can turn it round in the second leg.