Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs last week spooked the markets. 

Stock markets tumbled on Monday, with most US markets down and stocks in Hong Kong falling 13.2%, their worst day since 1997 during the Asian financial crisis.

There was slight growth in Asian and UK markets on Tuesday, but recovery is still a way off after a steep decline in reaction to Mr Trump’s tariffs on goods imported to the US, which he announced last week.

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US economists at Goldman Sachs raised their assessment of the odds that America will tip into recession to 45%, up from 35% the week before.

And if most tariffs aren’t reduced or negotiated away, “we expect to change our forecast to a recession”, Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said in an analyst note.

Other economists are raising similar alarms, with JPMorgan putting the odds of a US and global recession at 60% and projecting inflation will reach 4.4% by the end of this year, up from 2.8% currently.

How do you know if a recession has begun?

The most commonly used definition of a recession is at least two consecutive quarters of economic contraction – or “negative growth” – in gross domestic product (GDP).

To break that down, GDP is the total value of goods and services produced over a specific time period. When it goes up, the economy is considered to be doing well.

When it goes down – negative growth or economic contraction – it’s not doing well. And when it doesn’t do well for six months, it counts as a recession.

In the US, the National Bureau of Economic Research is the body which officially declares a recession – taking in a variety of economic data, not just GDP, defining it as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months”.

Currently, there are no signs the US or global economy is in recession, and it remains unknown if tariffs will have a large enough impact to knock America’s into reverse.

But it is this uncertainty that has the potential to cause the most damage.

“People are all at sea,” Sky News Business Live presenter Darren McCaffrey told the Sky News Daily podcast.

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“No one can quite work out whether President Trump wants a genuine rewiring of globalisation, what the consequences of that will be for the US and globally, and that these tariffs will remain permanent, or whether this is part of a negotiating tactic.

“That’s what no one can work out. That uncertainty is difficult, and it is going to cause damage.”

Stockbroker Russ Mould added that the markets are hoping the Trump administration is planning to use tariffs as a way of extracting better trade deals from existing trade partners. If this happens, it would help restore global trade to what’s been the standard in recent decades.

What could a global recession mean?

If the US and the rest of the world falls into recession – even if the UK doesn’t – it will “fundamentally mean we will all be poorer in the future,” McCaffrey said.

He added that Britain especially has not had a prolonged period of serious economic growth for a long time – held back by the financial crisis in 2008, the shock of Brexit, COVID, the Ukraine war and now US tariffs.

However, it is not all doom and gloom.

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“The markets will always find a way,” McCaffrey says.

“The US is the world’s largest economy, but it is only 13% of global trade. Countries like China, Vietnam, Cambodia and others with high tariffs will find new markets. And one of the places that benefit from that in the short-medium term could be the UK.

“It will also force big wealthy blocs – the biggest of which is the EU – to look for new markets. Canada is also suggesting they would like a trade deal with the UK.

“This will cause damage to the US economy more than anywhere else, because other countries will want to be more reliant on more stable partners. As always with economics, there are winners and losers and ultimately the market will find a place for lots of these goods.”

How could the UK best prepare for potential recession?

Instead of retaliatory tariffs, the UK is looking to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, Russ Mould explained, calling that “the UK’s primary goal”.

But if the UK is stuck with tariffs in the long-term, Mr Mould said it would be wise to consider deals with other countries.

He said: “Statistics show that 87% of global trade does not involve US, so maybe you can look elsewhere for trade deals with countries who also feel they have been badly treated by tariffs. I would guess India would be at the top of that list.

“The question is how quickly can trade deals be struck, given the fact the UK has been casting the net around for the last five years without a huge amount of progress.”

Read more:
Everything you need to know about Trump’s tariffs
What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war ramps-up
A major economic shock is happening thanks to Trump

Mr Mould added that the recipe for economic growth in any market is the growth of the labour force coupled with productivity growth.

“In terms of productivity, [leaders] are probably looking at targeted tax breaks for investment and to stimulate research and development. Other positive things for long-term benefits include examining infrastructure and transport access,” Mr Mould said.

“In terms of encouraging labour participation, you are into the deep waters of whether it is education or tax breaks for child care. All of those are very long-term solutions to a potential near-term challenge.”

Listen to the full Sky News Daily episode here

Ride1Up has carved out a name for itself in the e-bike world by delivering sleek, well-equipped electric bikes that punch well above their price tag. Their latest model, the Ride1Up Vorsa, takes that formula and beefs it up into something more versatile… literally.

The Vorsa is Ride1Up’s answer to the growing demand for SUV-style e-bikes – those do-it-all electric rides that can handle your commute, your grocery runs, your kid-hauling trailer, and your backroad detours without flinching. And at $1,595, the Vorsa might just be the most affordable ticket into that category right now – at least for an e-bike that still includes a pile of interesting and high-value tech features.

To see what I mean, check out my video review of the Ride1Up Vorsa below. Then keep reading for the full details on this highly versatile ride.

Ride1Up Vorsa video review

Ride1Up Vorsa Tech Specs

• Motor: 750W and 95Nm rear hub motor
• Top speed: 28 mph (45 km/h) on pedal assist or 20 mph (32 km/h) on throttle
• Range: 30-60 miles (48-96 km)
• Battery: 48V 15Ah (720Wh) UL-certified with Samsung 50GB cells
• Weight: 65 lb (29.5 kg)
• Load Capacity: 440 lb (200 kg)
• Frame: Aluminum alloy 6061
• Brakes: Star Union hydraulic dual-piston disc brakes on 203 mm (front) and 180 mm (rear) rotors
• Extras: Shimano Acera 8-speed derailleur, new highly-detailed color LCD display, two frame styles of step-over and step-thru, semi-integrated rear rack with optional rack extender, and a wide range of other accessories
• Price: $1,595

Goes anywhere, does almost anything

E-bikes are getting more versatile, but the Vorsa takes versatility to the extreme.

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This is already a powerful e-bike capable of 28+ mph Class 3 speeds (though ships out of the box with a Class 2 setting of 20 mph) from its 750W motor capable of a heart-thumping 95 Nm of torque. That means its a fast hill climber and ready for just about any challenge that a high-performance e-bike should be.

But then, on top of that, the bike’s design allows it to tackle very different styles of riding, from cargo needs with its semi-integrated rear rack to touring and trekking style rides with its 27.5×2.6″ Schwalbe touring tires.

That means the same e-bike you use to take the kids to school at in the morning can transform into your commuter bike to work and then into your single-track bike for weekend recreational riding.

And with a 720 Wh battery (UL-compliant, no less), you’ll have plenty of charge to do all of those things in the same day!

It’s par for the course at Ride1Up, something I learned when touring their factory last year and seeing firsthand just how important a combination of quality, practicality, and affordability are to the company. It’s obvious that the folks at Ride1Up want to give us riders as much battery, as much performance, and as much versatility as they can while keeping the price reasonable.

Packed with tech, but only the good stuff

It’s fun to see more tech enter the e-bike space, but some companies don’t seem to understand that more isn’t always better. It’s only a net benefit to me if it’s stuff I’ll actually use. Ride1Up has eschewed smartphone apps and other things that don’t add much usability and has now given us the stuff that actually matters.

For example, the new display on the Vorsa is much more involved, with more than just a higher-resolution color display. It shows metrics that actually mean something to me, like how much time I spend in different riding modes. This helped remind me to not only use the highest power modes but also drop the pedal assist down a few notches for more exercise.

There’s also built-in Apple FindMy tracking now, which is a HUGE added value for me. It’s not a guarantee that you’ll get your bike back if it’s stolen, but it’s a major headstart in recovering it. It may not be as helpful for you Android phone users out there, but for us iPhone folks who are held captive by Apple’s golden handcuffs, it’s a great system for finding just about anything, especially your e-bike. From my phone, I can see where my Vorsa is, and I can find it if someone tries to abscond with it.

Then there’s the new torque sensor from MiVice, which is honestly one of the most responsive torque sensors I’ve ever had the pleasure of pedaling. It’s fast, and it feels like my legs are just extra strong that day. Throttle-only riders won’t really benefit from it, and in fact may want to use the sensor selector option to put the bike back in cadence sensor mode to enable more of a ‘foot throttle’ feel, but most of us will prefer the torque sensor because of how impressively dialed in it feels.

Hardware design

That technology is nice, but it needs to complement good hardware, not replace it. In this case, the design of the Ride1Up Vorsa complements the tech, adding versatility and value without jacking up the price.

The semi-integrated rack is a really cool design that helps the bike achieve its 440-lb weight capacity. There’s even a rack extender that helps turn the bike into a longtail cargo bike, even if that tail sticks out in a slightly funny way.

Then there are the other nice upgrades over the usual suspects we see on $1,500-range electric bikes. Instead of plastic fenders, we get nice metal alloy fenders that look and feel better quality. Instead of a cheap 7-speed Shimano Altus derailleur, we get a nicer 8-speed Shimano Acera derailleur. Instead of a basic suspension fork, we get a longer travel 100mm fork. Instead of a compliance stem, we get an adjustable stem to dial in the handlebar angle to our liking. You name it, the upgrades are there.

The LED lighting, including the fender integrated lights, is also clearly higher quality than you’d expect on a value e-bike, making this an even higher value.

What’s not to like?

Don’t get me wrong, the Ride1Up Vorsa is great. It sets a new high watermark in what can be delivered at this price, especially considering the rampant inflation in e-bike prices brought on by new tariffs. But I can always complain about something, and so why stop now?

The Ride1Up Vorsa brings us a lot of cool tech and new hardware, but it comes at a cost, and that cost is weight. At 65-70 lb, depending on how many of the cool add-ons you install, the bike isn’t lightweight. You’ve got chunkier tires, a bigger battery, a more powerful motor, a more robust frame, a larger fork, metal fenders, and other parts that all add to the weight.

Next, Ride1Up has again played it incredibly conservatively with the color options. Your typical dark gray is there, then you get a fairly nice blue, and lastly, you’ve got a slightly confusing two-tone sage grayish-green option. There are no bright colors to choose from, which isn’t a departure for Ride1Up, but still a bit disappointing to me. Go wild, guys! Throw caution to the wind! Hit me with some color someday!

And lastly, Ride1Up continues to ship in smaller boxes that require the fork to be installed by the owner. This isn’t a complicated task when you’ve done it 100 times like it’s your job, which it is for me. But most people have done this zero times, and the ones who have can probably count the instances on one hand. This is an essential step in bike assembly and one that has very little margin for error, so most new owners would be advised to have a bike shop do it if they aren’t comfortable following Ride1Up’s clear and welcomed assembly video.

So I have my complaints like normal, but none are insurmountable. And to be honest, at $1,595, the price is so fair that I can overlook the limited color options and the longer at-home assembly. When it comes to the weight, that’s just the price we riders pay to have more performance and features included in our bikes.

I absolutely recommend the Ride1Up Vorsa to anyone looking for a ‘normal’ style e-bike (i.e., not a folder or a moped) but who wants the versatility to head in highly divergent directions, including everything from cargo hauling to recreational riding and daily commuting. It’s a winner and they stuck the landing on the Vorsa.