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The governor of the Bank of England has told MPs that interest rates may not rise much further amid expectations that inflation is set to fall “markedly” by the end of the year.

Andrew Bailey said rates were “much nearer now to the top of the cycle” following a 14th consecutive hike – to 5.25% – last month.

His comments will give some hope to homeowners and the wider housing market, which has experienced a slump in recent months amid high mortgage rates.

Speaking to the Commons Treasury Committee on Wednesday, the governor also reiterated his prediction that inflation is likely to be down significantly this winter.

But he also cautioned that it may temporarily “tick up” following the increase in petrol prices in August and amid concerns over the rising cost of oil.

Mr Bailey told MPs that while there had previously been a period when “it was clear that rates needed to rise”, the Bank was “not in that place anymore”.

He added: “judgements now are much finer… I think we are much nearer now to the top of the cycle.

“And I’m not therefore saying we’re at the top of the cycle, because we’ve got a meeting to come, but I think we are much nearer to it, on interest rates, on the basis of current evidence.”

Most economists expect the Bank to raise interest rates for a 15th time in a row to 5.5% later this month, and predict rates to peak at 5.75%, according to a poll.

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While inflation has gradually been coming down from its peak of 11.1% last October, the rate of price rises – which was 6.8% in the year to July – remains high.

When asked about inflation, the governor told MPs: “Many of the indicators are now moving as we would expect them to move, and are signalling that the fall in inflation will continue and, as I’ve said a number of times, I think [it] will be quite marked by the end of this year.

“I should say possibly that we will get a tick up in the next release because fuel prices went down in August last year
and went up a bit in August this year… but I don’t [see] that as a central change in the path.”

The pound slumped to near a three-month low against the US dollar – to around $1.24 – following his comments about inflation falling, which echoed similar remarks by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt at the weekend.

Mr Hunt warned inflation may soon hit a “blip” – but also added he was still confident it would be halved as promised by the end of 2023.

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Andy Haldane suggested the Bank acted too slowly to increase interest rates

Mr Bailey was also quizzed about a Sky News interview with the Bank’s former chief economist Andy Haldane, in which he accused the institution of helping to fuel inflation.

Mr Haldane said the Bank had printed money via quantitative easing to help the economy after COVID for “longer than it needed to” and also suggested it had acted too slowly to increase interest rates.

The governor stressed that his former colleague had made his comments “with hindsight” and said: “I don’t enter into those judgements because I think it is very difficult to separate out the hindsight judgement from the decision at the time”.

But, commenting on the “last phase” of quantitative easing to support the economy following COVID, he said: “I think most of the people who give evidence on this say they don’t think actually it made a major contribution to inflation”.

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Clampdown on social media ads for Channel crossings unveiled

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Clampdown on social media ads for Channel crossings unveiled

Anyone who advertises Channel crossings or fake passports on social media could face up to five years in prison under new government plans.

Research suggests about 80% of migrants arriving to the UK by small boat used internet platforms during their journey – including to contact agents linked to smuggling gangs.

While it is already illegal to assist illegal immigration, ministers hope the creation of a new offence will give police more powers and disrupt business models.

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Small boat crammed with migrants in Channel

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also planning to introduce a fast-track scheme to tackle the asylum backlog, meaning decisions will be made within weeks.

It comes as official figures show more than 25,000 people have arrived on small boats so far in 2025 – a record for this point in the year.

Ms Cooper said it is “immoral” for smugglers to sell false promises online, adding: “These criminals have no issue with leading migrants to life-threatening situations using brazen tactics on social media.

“We are determined to do everything we can to stop them, wherever they operate.”

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The new offence prohibiting the online promotion of Channel crossings is set to be included in the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill already going through Parliament.

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More migrants arrive in Dover

Officials from the National Crime Agency already work with tech giants to remove such posts – with more than 8,000 taken offline last year.

A Preston-based smuggler who was jailed for 17 years had posted videos of migrants thanking him for his help.

Meanwhile, Albanian smugglers have created promotions for £12,000 “package deals” which claim to offer accommodation and a job in the UK on arrival.

The Conservatives have described the measures as “too little, too late” – and say automatic deportations are the only way to tackle small boat crossings.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said: “Labour still has no clear plan to deter illegal entry, no effective enforcement and no strategy to speed up removals. This is a panicked attempt to look tough after months of doing nothing.”

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Waves and kisses from asylum hotel window

It comes as protests outside hotels believed to be housing asylum seekers continue in towns and cities across the UK.

Several demonstrators were detained – with police breaking up brief clashes – outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in north London yesterday.

The government is legally required to provide accommodation and subsistence to destitute asylum seekers while their claims are being decided, most of whom are prohibited from working.

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China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

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China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

China’s plan to liquidate confiscated crypto through Hong Kong exchanges isn’t simply a policy — it’s to control global digital asset markets and outmaneuver the US.

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Make ‘significant adjustments’ to Online Safety Act, X urges govt

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X criticises Online Safety Act - and warns it's putting free speech in the UK at risk

The Online Safety Act is putting free speech at risk and needs significant adjustments, Elon Musk’s social network X has warned.

New rules that came into force last week require platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, TikTok and X – as well as sites hosting pornography – to bring in measures to prove that someone using them is over the age of 18.

The Online Safety Act requires sites to protect children and to remove illegal content, but critics have said that the rules have been implemented too broadly, resulting in the censorship of legal content.

X has warned the act’s laudable intentions were “at risk of being overshadowed by the breadth of its regulatory reach”.

It said: “When lawmakers approved these measures, they made a conscientious decision to increase censorship in the name of ‘online safety’.

“It is fair to ask if UK citizens were equally aware of the trade-off being made.”

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What are the new online rules?

X claims the timetable for platforms to meet mandatory measures had been unnecessarily tight – and despite complying, sites still faced threats of enforcement and fines, “encouraging over-censorship”.

More on Online Safety Bill

“A balanced approach is the only way to protect individual liberties, encourage innovation and safeguard children. It’s safe to say that significant changes must take place to achieve these objectives in the UK,” it said.

A UK government spokesperson said it is “demonstrably false” that the Online Safety Act compromises free speech.

“As well as legal duties to keep children safe, the very same law places clear and unequivocal duties on platforms to protect freedom of expression,” they added.

Users have complained about age checks that require personal data to be uploaded to access sites that show pornography, and 468,000 people have already signed a petition asking for the new law to be repealed.

In response to the petition, the government said it had “no plans” to reverse the Online Safety Act.

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Why do people want to repeal the Online Safety Act?

Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage likened the new rules to “state suppression of genuine free speech” and said his party would ditch the regulations.

Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said on Tuesday that those who wanted to overturn the act were “on the side of predators” – to which Mr Farage demanded an apology, calling Mr Kyle’s comments “absolutely disgusting”.

Regulator Ofcom said on Thursday it had launched an investigation into how four companies – that collectively run 34 pornography sites – are complying with new age-check requirements.

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These companies – 8579 LLC, AVS Group Ltd, Kick Online Entertainment S.A. and Trendio Ltd – run dozens of sites, and collectively have more than nine million unique monthly UK visitors, the internet watchdog said.

The regulator said it prioritised the companies based on the risk of harm posed by the services they operated and their user numbers.

It adds to the 11 investigations already in progress into 4chan, as well as an unnamed online suicide forum, seven file-sharing services, and two adult websites.

Ofcom said it expects to make further enforcement announcements in the coming months.

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