Fantasy hockey preview: How to draft your centers
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Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.com
If there’s an argument to be made to separate the forward positions in hockey for fantasy roster construction, the crux of that argument is made around the validity of the center position to stand on its own.
I’m not saying there is a good argument to be made; my stance is clear from previous positional previews that the best fantasy world is an all “F” forward fantasy world.
But I get it when it comes to centers. They are the position from which an offense is built. They are the foundation for roster construction in the NHL. It doesn’t matter how great your wingers are, a hockey team needs a one-two punch at the pivot position (or at the very least a very good one) in order to build an offense.
There is also the categorical element to argue, as centers are the only position other than the goaltender that get a statistic of their own. Yes, defense owns the blocked shot, but it’s not exclusive to them in the same way that a faceoff belongs to the centers.
But, as always, the flawed piece of the implementation for separated positions comes from the human element. There exists no superior listing of which position a player truly plays most of the time. We can count faceoffs to see who is a center and who is not, but trying to keep tabs on left wing or right wing, or which players are playing center enough to qualify … it’s a messy business.
Why, for example, does Leon Draisaitl get eligibility at LW? Let’s throw out the power play for this point, as Draisaitl and McDavid played more than 50% of their five-on-five ice time with each other last season. Draisaitl took 917 faceoffs at five-on-five, while McDavid was at the dot for 879. We don’t have an easy breakdown of which player was the “center” when they played together unless you had the time to eyeball all 469 minutes.
So why does Draisaitl get the LW tag and McDavid does not? Did McDavid play center more than Draisaitl? That’s what you see watching the games, sometimes. But try to find a way to quantify that.
For example, on Dec. 9, 2022, the Oilers played the Wild; Draisaitl and McDavid were both on the ice for 21 faceoffs. How many did each take? It’s unclear without digging through the play-by-play. McDavid had 23 faceoffs that game and Draisaitl had nine, so probably McDavid took most of those 21 when they were together.
Another example: On March 20, 2023, the pair were on the ice for 12 faceoffs. Draisaitl finished the game with 29 faceoffs and McDavid with 13. This one probably leaned the other way for which player was the “center” when they were together.
As I said, it’s a messy business.
Strategy
But it’s a business we have to wade through. And it’s important to do so.
Five of the top 10 players for fantasy points last season were eligible at center. For the top 100, it was 37 that can play center. Of the top 250 players in fantasy points, 30 percent of them are eligible at center — despite the center being one of five positions and one of six players on the ice at any given time.
Centers score fantasy points.
Part of the phrasing above is key though: “eligible” at center means that in ESPN.com leagues you can put them there. It doesn’t mean they are a center. But eligible is good enough when it comes to your roster construction.
There are some questionable cases, like Roope Hintz. Is he the center? Or is Joe Pavelski the center on the Stars top line? Pavelski took 689 faceoffs, while Hintz took 479 (while missing nine games). Should they both get the center tag? Neither?
There are also no-question cases, such as Carter Verhaeghe and his 41 total faceoffs last season. He should not be eligible at center, but you can put him there. There are others as well, such as Anders Lee or Troy Terry, and the game at ESPN.com doesn’t remove position eligibility once launched. Positions can be added, but taking them away in-season is not something we do.
Regardless of which players you opt to acquire for your fantasy team, the key thing with centers is to strike early and often. There is stability built in for those players that are true centers. They line up on scoring lines and they stay there all season. Teams seek a No. 1 and a No. 2 center and a rarely blessed with a No. 3, so there is little to no instability for their position on the depth chart. Oftentimes, the No. 2 center gets elevated as the fourth forward on a team’s top power-play unit, too, as their puck control comes into play.
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Offseason recap speedrun
Turning to this year’s rankings, let’s quickly recap some of the key offseason changes at center. As I said already, this position is all about organizational stability, so change is minimized at the position.
We lost a generational one in Patrice Bergeron, who was both fantasy-friendly and defensively all-world. And with both Bergeron and David Krejci retiring, the Boston Bruins have a lot of work to do in order to find a one-two punch down the middle.
The next biggest swing was the Los Angeles Kings acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets, giving them a counterweight to Anze Kopitar and leaving the Jets with a hole on the second line — likely to be filled by Gabriel Vilardi.
The Colorado Avalanche have brought on some projects to try and find someone to line up behind Nathan MacKinnon on the second line, including Ryan Johansen, after the Detroit Red Wings stole away J.T. Compher.
The Nashville Predators have a new look at the top with Ryan O’Reilly, while Josh Norris should be healthy for the Ottawa Senators and Sean Couturier should be healthy for the Philadelphia Flyers.
Logan Cooley, Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli, among other youngsters, will try to assert themselves.
Beyond all that, the landscape should be pretty similar to where we stood at this time last season.
Top-tier guys I like
Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey Devils: Heading into September, I have five of the top seven fantasy players eligible at center. Hughes clocks in at No. 13 overall, seventh among players eligible at center. But the sky is the limit here. The Devils wings got an upgrade by adding Tyler Toffoli, but also through virtue of Timo Meier having the full offseason as a Devil. Jack will also have his brother, Luke Hughes, on the defense this season. Jack is still only 22 years old and finished the 2022-23 season 18th for fantasy points.
Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins: I have him ranked at No. 40 right now, but haven’t yet really dove into what the addition of Erik Karlsson might mean for this Penguins team. Crosby finished the 2021-22 season 49th in fantasy scoring and ticked up to 27th last season, but at the age of 36 we should be building in some deterioration for each subsequent season. That said, adding the reigning Norris Trophy winner to an already-potent power play could be the key ingredients for a fountain of youth elixir — at least that’s surely what the Pens are banking on here.
Mid-tier guys I like
Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens: The Habs didn’t do a lot of upgrading this offseason, but a relatively healthy squad will be an upgrade after the array of injuries suffered by the lineup last season. Suzuki stayed healthy, but didn’t have a lot of help on offense by the end of the campaign. Cole Caufield is primed for a proper breakout and Suzuki is locked in at the top of the lineup with him.
Josh Norris, C, Ottawa Senators: The Senators don’t have any question marks for their top six, losing Alex DeBrincat but gaining Vladimir Tarasenko in the offseason. Norris finished 85th for fantasy points in the 2021-22 campaign before an injury derailed last season for him. True success might hinge on Norris securing a role on the Sens power play, but the recipe is there for the baking.
Matt Duchene, C, Dallas Stars: Two years removed from a 43-goal, 86-point season, the Nashville Predators paid to be rid of Duchene. The Stars didn’t wait long to lock him back up at a lower rate. Now, Duchene won’t drive offense on his own, but on a quality team like the Stars he has potential to land in the right spot in the lineup to better replicate his 2021-22, rather than his mediocre 2022-23. He’ll be very available at fantasy drafts and I think he’ll have value on this Stars team that still hasn’t peaked.
Sleepers I will live and die by
Ivan Barbashev, C/W, Vegas Golden Knights: He has no right to be eligible at center, but he is. Running to the Stanley Cup on the top line helped pad Barbashev’s resume for the coming season. While a spot on the top power-play unit may not be in the offing, regular ice time with Jack Eichel can go a long way to securing consistent fantast value.
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Emergency back-end pick who might work out
Nick Schmaltz, C/W, Arizona Coyotes: There will be a lot of fantasy prospecting taking place on the Coyotes ranks this season. Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther are looking for top-six action, and Matias Maccelli and Barrett Hayton are poised for better things. But don’t forget about the existing commodities that will be in the mix, including Schmaltz. For four seasons running, Schmaltz has checked in between 211th and 258th for total fantasy points. But he’s had stretches mixed in there — including in the 2021-22 season — where he scored as frequently as anyone in the game. Through in some youthful hope around him for the coming campaign and Schmaltz could be a fantasy asset.
Bust concern I am avoiding in every draft this season
Bo Horvat, C, New York Islanders: Sure, he finished 48th among all players for fantasy points last season. But most of that damage was done when Horvat was with the Vancouver Canucks. Horvat had 31 goals and 54 points in 49 games with the Canucks, but only deposited seven goals and 16 points in 30 games with the Isles. A healthy Mathew Barzal likely improves Horvat’s outcomes on Long Island, but not enough to consider him among the top tiers of centers.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were charged with fraud, conspiracy and bribery stemming from an alleged scheme to rig individual pitches that led to gamblers winning hundreds of thousands of dollars, according to an indictment unsealed by federal prosecutors Sunday.
Ortiz was arrested Sunday morning in Boston and will appear in court Monday, according to prosecutors, and Clase is not in custody.
Prosecutors at the Eastern District of New York, the Brooklyn-based United States Attorney’s office that levied similar charges against NBA player Terry Rozier and multiple coaches in late October, said in the indictment that Clase arranged with a bettor as early as May 2023 to throw specific pitches for balls so the gambler could place prop bets and profit. Ortiz, prosecutors said, joined the scheme in June 2025, and between the two, gamblers won at least $450,000 wagering on their pitches, while Clase and Ortiz were given kickbacks for their participation.
Clase and Ortiz each could face up to 20 years in prison for wire fraud conspiracy, 20 years for honest services wire fraud conspiracy, 20 years for money laundering conspiracy and five years for conspiracy to influence sporting events by bribery, according to prosecutors.
“The defendants deprived the Cleveland Guardians and Major League Baseball of their honest services,” Joseph Nocella Jr., the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District, said in a statement. “They defrauded the online betting platforms where the bets were placed. And they betrayed America’s pastime. Integrity, honesty and fair play are part of the DNA of professional sports. When corruption infiltrates the sport, it brings disgrace not only to the participants but damages the public trust in an institution that is vital and dear to all of us.”
In a statement to ESPN, Ortiz’s attorney Chris Georgalis denied the charges, saying his client “has never, and would never, improperly influence a game — not for anyone and not for anything.” A message to Clase’s attorney seeking comment has not been returned.
Clase, a three-time All-Star and two-time Reliever of the Year, and Ortiz were placed on non-disciplinary paid leave by MLB in July after betting-integrity firms flagged irregular wagering on a pair of pitches thrown by Ortiz in June.
While the pervasiveness of legalized gambling has upended the sports world, the allegations against Clase and Ortiz are the most severe for the sport since Pete Rose agreed to a lifetime ban for betting on baseball in 1989. MLB’s rules against gambling on the sport are strict, and Clase and Ortiz could face lifetime bans similar to the one delivered last year to San Diego Padres infielder Tucupita Marcano, who placed nearly 400 bets on baseball.
In a statement, MLB said: “MLB contacted federal law enforcement at the outset of its investigation and has fully cooperated throughout the process. We are aware of the indictment and today’s arrest, and our investigation is ongoing.” The Guardians in a statement said they were aware of the charges and will continue to cooperate with law enforcement and MLB.
In a 23-page indictment, prosecutors outlined a scheme perpetrated by Clase, the 27-year-old right-hander regarded as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. According to prosecutors, Clase would regularly throw balls instead of strikes and sliders rather than cutters on the first pitch of at-bats in which bettors would wager on the individual pitches to be balls or under a specific miles-per-hour threshold. The proposition bets, according to the indictment, would often be stacked in a parlay, leading to greater winnings.
Clase provided money to bettors to gamble on his behalf, texted with bettors during games and later was joined in the scheme by Ortiz, a 26-year-old right-hander who joined the Guardians in a December 2024 trade, the indictment said.
The earliest example, according to the indictment, came in a May 19, 2023 game between the Guardians and New York Mets, in which Clase relayed information that he would throw a pitch faster than 94.95 mph. Bettors, prosecutors said, won $27,000 on that pitch. Weeks later, bettors added a leg to a parlay for a pitch to be a ball slower than 94.95 mph — and won $38,000 when Clase spiked a slider at least 5 feet in front of home plate.
By April 2025, the indictment said, Clase “requested and received bribe and kickback payments in exchange for agreeing to throw specific pitches.” One day after throwing a pitch that hit the grass in front of home plate — about 10 feet short — Clase texted one bettor asking if he had gambled on the pitch, according to the indictment. When the bettor affirmed he had, the indictment said, Clase asked for money to be sent to the Dominican Republic — where Clase, Ortiz and the bettor are from — “for repairs at the country house.”
During the three years of the alleged scheme, prosecutors said, one bettor placed 16 parlays in which one leg was Clase throwing a ball. Of the eight pitches involved in those bets, seven were successful. The eighth was a pitch in the dirt swung at by Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andy Pages.
Ortiz’s involvement started June 15, 2025, according to the indictment, when he agreed with Clase that he would be paid $5,000 to throw the first pitch of the second inning for a ball. Clase, prosecutors said, received $5,000 for arranging the alleged fraud. Two bettors wagered a total of $13,000 on the pitch, the indictment said. When Ortiz received a payment of 90,000 Dominican pesos — approximately $1,400 — Clase directed him to lie about the purpose of the money if asked and say “this payment is for a horse,” according to prosecutors.
“Okay, perfect,” Ortiz said.
On June 27, 2025, Ortiz agreed to throw the first pitch of the third inning for a ball in exchange for $7,000, the indictment said. Bank security footage captured Clase withdrawing $50,000 in cash, of which he gave $15,000 to one of the bettors, who was in Cleveland that day, to wager on the pitch, according to prosecutors. The bettors placed $18,000 on the pitch, which was far outside the strike zone, according to the indictment.
Georgalis disputed the indictment’s findings in his statement.
“As Luis’ defense team extensively explained and documented to the government before these charges were brought, Luis’ payments and other transfers of money between him and individuals in the Dominican Republic were for lawful activities,” the statement read. “Notably, the indictment completely lacks any alleged evidence connecting Luis to these alleged bettors or demonstrating any purposeful involvement in a scheme.
There is no credible evidence Luis knowingly did anything other than try to win games, with every pitch and in every inning. Luis looks forward to fighting these charges in court. The government’s case is weak and circumstantial. He will defend himself, and he will be prevail.”
Clase has made more than $12 million over a major league career that has spanned seven seasons and was scheduled to make $6.4 million in 2026. Ortiz’s salary in 2025 was $782,600.
In one of the wildest finishes of the season, Indiana managed to keep its undefeated season alive with a late drive against Penn State. Most other teams in the top 10, though, won with little trouble. In the only top-10 vs. top-10 matchup, Texas Tech dominated BYU. And after its quarterback left the game with an injury, Virginia lost to Wake Forest in a low-scoring affair.
What does it all mean for the AP Top 25? Let’s break down the rankings.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern.
Previous ranking: 1
2025 record: 9-0
Week 11 result: Defeated Purdue 34-10
Stat to know: Ohio State is 51-1 against unranked opponents under Ryan Day.
What’s next: Saturday vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m., NBC
Previous ranking: 2
2025 record: 10-0
Week 11 result: Defeated Penn State 27-24
Stat to know: Saturday’s win was Indiana’s first on the road against Penn State.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Wisconsin, noon, Big Ten Network
Previous ranking: 3
2025 record: 9-0
Week 11 result: Defeated Missouri 38-17
Stat to know: Texas A&M is the only team this season with three road wins against AP-ranked opponents.
What’s next: Saturday vs. South Carolina, noon, ESPN
Previous ranking: 4
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Defeated LSU 20-9
Stat to know: Alabama has won eight straight after losing their opener at Florida State.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Oklahoma, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 5
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Defeated Mississippi State 41-21
Stat to know: Georgia’s 20-point win is its largest in a road conference game since its 2023 win at Tennessee.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Texas, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 7
2025 record: 9-1
Week 11 result: Defeated The Citadel 49-0
Stat to know: Ole Miss is 23-2 against nonconference opponents under Lane Kiffin.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Florida, 7 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 6
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Defeated Iowa 18-16
Stat to know: Kicker Atticus Sappington was 3-for-3 on field goals including a go-ahead 39-yarder with three seconds remaining.
What’s next: Friday vs. Minnesota, 9 p.m., Fox
Previous ranking: 9
2025 record: 9-1
Week 11 result: Defeated BYU 29-7
Stat to know: Texas Tech has won nine of its first 10 games for the first time since 2008.
What’s next: Saturday vs. UCF, 3:30 p.m., Fox
Previous ranking: 10
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Defeated Navy 49-10
Stat to know: Notre Dame is the first team to start 0-2 and then win seven straight since Washington State in 2016.
What’s next: Saturday at Pittsburgh, noon, ACC Network
Previous ranking: 13
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Georgia, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 11
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Alabama, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 8
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Lost to Texas Tech 29-7
Stat to know: The loss to Texas Tech was BYU’s worst loss by points over the past two seasons.
What’s next: Saturday vs. TCU, 10:15 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 15
2025 record: 8-2
Week 11 result: Defeated Auburn 45-38 (OT)
Stat to know: Vanderbilt is 8-2 for the first time since 1941.
What’s next: Nov. 22 vs. Kentucky
Previous ranking: 16
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Boston College, 3:30 p.m., ACC Network
Previous ranking: 17
2025 record: 6-2
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Baylor, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Previous ranking: 18
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Defeated Syracuse 38-10
Stat to know: Carson Beck had a receiving touchdown against Syracuse, joining Cam Ward as the second Miami QB to have a receiving touchdown in the past 20 years.
What’s next: Saturday vs. NC State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 20
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Defeated Northwestern 38-17
Stat to know: USC is now 6-0 against Northwestern.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Iowa, 3:30 p.m.
Previous ranking: 21
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Northwestern, noon, Fox
Previous ranking: 14
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Lost to Cal 29-26 (OT)
Stat to know: Both of Louisville’s losses this season have come in OT.
What’s next: Friday vs. Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 12
2025 record: 8-2
Week 11 result: Lost to Wake Forest 16-9
Stat to know: The loss to Wake Forest was Virginia’s first against an unranked opponent as an AP top-15 team since 2003.
What’s next: Saturday at Duke, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
Previous ranking: 23
2025 record: 6-3
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Nov. 15 vs. New Mexico State, 4:15 p.m., SEC Network
Previous ranking: 25
2025 record: 7-1
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday vs. Arizona, noon, FS1
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday vs. Notre Dame, noon, NBC
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Defeated Marshall 35-23
Stat to know: JMU has started 6-0 in conference play this season. That’s its best start to conference play as an FBS team.
What’s next: Saturday vs. App State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Defeated UTSA 55-23
Stat to know: South Florida has had six straight games with 450 or more yards of total offense, tied for the longest streak in the FBS this season.
What’s next: Saturday at Navy, noon, ESPN2
Following the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, selection committee chair Mack Rhoades wanted to make sure reporters understood the most integral part of the ranking process.
“We’ve watched the games,” he said on the weekly teleconference. “Let me repeat that; we watch the games.”
That won’t make it easier to decide who should be No. 2 on Tuesday night: Indiana, which escaped a 3-6 Penn State team, or Texas A&M, which soundly beat a CFP top-25 team in Mizzou. A deeper dive into the statistics and résumés of both undefeated teams — plus the context of why the group ranked them No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, last week — will factor into their discussions. It might be a bigger debate than how far No. 7 BYU should fall this week after a 29-7 loss to No. 8 Texas Tech.
Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee will do when it reveals its second of six rankings Tuesday night (7 ET, ESPN).
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: Ohio State earned its fourth Big Ten road win of the season Saturday, albeit against a 2-8 Purdue team that hasn’t won since Sept. 6 against Southern Illinois. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked No. 33 in strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics, but No. 1 in game control and No. 3 in strength of record. “So it was certainly close [between Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M], but when we looked at film, and we’re blessed to have committee members and coaches that do a lot of film work, we just felt like Ohio State had a slight edge when we think about offensive line play and then a slight edge defensively,” Rhoades said after the first ranking release Tuesday. “That was really the outcome. Ohio State has some, I’m going to call them explosive players, that probably stood out as well.”
Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping the Buckeyes below Indiana after the Hoosiers were fortunate to escape Penn State with a win Saturday, but undefeated Texas A&M continues to make a case for the top spot. The Aggies, who entered the week ranked No. 1 in strength of record, earned another CFP top-25 win at Mizzou on Saturday.
Need to know: Ohio State entered Week 11 with the best chance in the country to reach the playoff (99.2%), the best chance to earn the No. 1 seed (41.1%) and the best chance to win it all (27%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. It’s the only CFP top-25 team left on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The road win against Penn State isn’t going to help the Hoosiers’ résumé much, but they narrowly avoided putting their first-round bye in jeopardy. Indiana should remain safely in the top four, thanks to a double-digit road win against No. 9 Oregon and another CFP top-25 win at Iowa. The Hoosiers beat two teams that were in a nailbiter Saturday before Oregon won on a game-winning field goal at Iowa. Penn State and Iowa are the only opponents Indiana hasn’t defeated by double digits. The historic 63-10 win against 6-3 Illinois is another respectable résumé booster, even though it’s not against a CFP top-25 opponent.
Why they could be lower: Texas A&M continues to make a push to move up after its 38-17 win at Mizzou on Saturday. The Aggies entered Week 11 ranked higher than Indiana in strength of schedule and strength of record.
Need to know: Both of Indiana’s remaining opponents — Wisconsin and Purdue — have six losses. The Hoosiers entered Week 11 with the best chance in the Big Ten to reach the conference championship game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. It’s on a Friday night against an in-state rival — and Indiana still has at least a 97% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be here: With Saturday’s win at Mizzou, the Aggies have won three straight SEC road games to go along with their Sept. 13 win at Notre Dame. The committee will discuss, though, that Missouri was without injured starting quarterback Beau Pribula, and the Aggies easily handled freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, who was making his first start. Texas A&M entered Week 11 ranked No. 18 in defensive efficiency, behind Ohio State (No. 3) and Indiana (No. 2), and that played a role in the committee’s decision last week. “What we saw in A&M is a really, really good football team,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “They went into Death Valley, I thought dominated a good LSU team. You have a dynamic playmaker at quarterback, Marcel Reed. He can beat you with his arm. He can beat you with his feet. Impressive win, certainly going on the road, South Bend. I think you’re talking about really small margins when you think about the difference between Ohio State, Indiana and A&M, and then I think statistically, when we looked at A&M defensively, they’re just lower than both Ohio State and Indiana. We had to make a hard decision, and you’re trying to find separators, and that was a separator for us.”
Why they could be higher: Though Indiana was fortunate to escape Penn State with a win, Texas A&M went on the road and beat the committee’s No. 22 team soundly, scoring 24 points in the second half against Mizzou.
Need to know: Texas A&M entered Saturday with a 56.7% chance to earn a first-round bye but had less than a 50% chance to beat Texas in the regular-season finale.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. It’s the only ranked opponent remaining on the Aggies’ schedule, and their last road game.
Why they could be here: If the Tide didn’t start any higher in the first ranking, it’s unlikely a home win against LSU on Saturday will boost them above any of the undefeated teams. The head-to-head win will keep them above Georgia, though, as the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. The Tide’s road win against the No. 5 Bulldogs is one of the best in the country — arguably better than any win the teams above them can claim — but their season-opening loss to Florida State is holding them back. The Oct. 11 victory at Mizzou is still good, even if the Tigers fall out of the top 25 this week, and the committee will recognize Bama beat Mizzou when starting quarterback Beau Pribula was healthy. The Tide also have a CFP top-25 win against Tennessee, which had a bye this week. “I’m not sure, when you look at a résumé, anybody had a better stretch of four games,” Rhoades said of the Tide on Tuesday. “When you think about Alabama, really, really impressive, two of those wins on the road. Going into Athens, one of the hardest, toughest environments to be able to get out of there with a win. There was certainly discussion about the Florida State loss early on, but just felt like that four-game stretch — which by the way, historical in the SEC. Nobody has beaten four straight ranked teams without a bye.”
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify any movement up or down this week, given the teams around them won, the head-to-head results and last week’s ranking.
Need to know: Alabama’s strength of schedule was No. 4 in the country heading into Week 11 — better than every team ranked ahead of it. The Tide was No. 5, though, in strength of record, trailing the committee’s top three teams.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. This is the last ranked opponent Alabama will face.
Why they could be here: Georgia didn’t need a second-half surge at Mississippi State, after rallying from a tie or from behind during its previous three games. The committee likes what it sees from Georgia, but it has to account for head-to-head results, which is why Georgia should continue to be sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss again Tuesday night. “I think Gunner Stockton at quarterback has really progressed,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “It certainly feels like they have more confidence in him, doing a lot more with him. Again, he’s another maybe similar to Marcel Reed where he can beat you with his arm, he can beat you with his feet. The head-to-head against Ole Miss, obviously we took that into account. We absolutely took into account the loss at home versus Alabama.”
Why they could be lower: It would be surprising to see the Bulldogs move Tuesday night, given that nothing drastic happened around them.
Need to know: Georgia will play its last SEC game of the season Saturday against Texas, as it finishes the month against Charlotte and rival Georgia Tech.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt on Nov. 1 and enter this game on a four-game winning streak. They also had a bye to prepare for the trip to Athens, while Georgia is coming off a road win against Mississippi State.
Why they could be here: A lopsided win against The Citadel won’t impress the selection committee, but the Rebels already earned their respect in the first ranking. Ole Miss will still be ranked behind Georgia because of its head-to-head road loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18. The Rebels entered Saturday with a slight edge over Texas Tech in strength of record, but with greater separation in strength of schedule, where Ole Miss was No. 25 and Texas Tech was No. 58. The committee will also consider the Rebels’ road defeat to Georgia is a better loss than the Red Raiders’ road setback to Arizona State, which has lost two of its past four games.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech earned a CFP top-10 win Saturday when it beat previously undefeated BYU. Ole Miss’ best win was Oct. 25 at No. 12 Oklahoma.
Need to know: The Rebels’ 45-10 win against Tulane on Sept. 20 continues to enhance their overall record strength, even though it’s not a CFP top 25 win. The Green Wave earned an important win at Memphis on Friday, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Tulane also beat Northwestern and Duke this season, and the committee pays attention to opponents’ opponents (yes, you read that right).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl isn’t a gimme, even after the Bulldogs were beaten soundly Saturday by Georgia. A loss could mean a first-round road trip instead of a home game for Ole Miss — or getting bumped out of the bracket.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders looked like the best team in the Big 12 on Saturday, and the committee will likely reflect that in its second ranking. The double-digit win against previously undefeated BYU is better than Oregon’s best win, but the loss to Arizona State could play a role in the committee keeping Texas Tech behind Ole Miss. Still, the committee factors in injuries to key players, and the Red Raiders were without starting quarterback Behren Morton (knee) on the road in their close defeat to the Sun Devils. “The loss at Arizona State without Behren at quarterback, Arizona State wins that late, so we do talk about quality wins,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “We also talk about quality losses.”
Why they could be higher: The selection committee also rewarded Texas Tech for its road win against No. 13 Utah. On Saturday, Texas Tech earned its ninth victory by at least 20 points this season, showing the committee its ability to win convincingly consistently. The Red Raiders’ defense held BYU to its fewest points in any game over the past two seasons.
Need to know: Texas Tech and BYU are still the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas Tech has a 93% chance to reach it, BYU is second with a 55% chance and Cincinnati is third (19%). If BYU captures the Big 12, Texas Tech could claim a regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 champ, which would help boost its résumé and the case for playoff inclusion as the league runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. The Red Raiders have at least an 80% chance to win their two remaining regular-season games, but this one is slightly more difficult than against UCF because it’s on the road at a difficult venue.
Why they could be here: The Ducks got a much-needed résumé boost with Saturday’s win at Iowa, their first against a CFP top-25 team. Rhoades had said last week that Oregon had the lowest record strength of any team in the committee’s top 10. Saturday’s win also showed the group some impressive depth and grit, with the Ducks winning on the road in horrible weather and without multiple injured starters, including three of their top receivers. The question is whether Iowa will still be a top-25 team Tuesday now that the Hawkeyes have three losses.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has been passing the eye test, ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency entering Saturday. With the exception of the two close road wins at Iowa and Penn State, the Ducks have dominated their opponents, ranking No. 4 in the country in game control — trailing only Ohio State, Indiana and Texas Tech.
Need to know: Oregon has at least a 70% chance to win each of its remaining games (Minnesota, USC and at Washington), according to ESPN Analytics, but it’s still unlikely to reach the Big Ten title game. The Ducks’ head-to-head home loss to the Hoosiers is a major reason.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. The Trojans are 7-2 with one Big Ten loss and opportunities to climb in the ranking. A win at Oregon would flip the script in the conference pecking order, and if USC can beat Iowa Saturday, this game will be the Trojans’ Super Bowl.
Why they could be here: Notre Dame had no trouble dismantling an overmatched Navy team that was playing without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. It was Notre Dame’s seventh straight win since starting the season 0-2. The committee considered that those two losses in last week’s first ranking were by a total of four points to two CFP top-25 teams, including No. 3 and unbeaten Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed with Notre Dame’s 34-24 win against USC on Oct. 18, and that will continue to resonate with the Trojans improving to 7-2 after Friday’s win against Northwestern. Rhoades said Notre Dame had been “much, much better defensively” of late. “You look at their backfield, Jadarian Price, Jeremiyah Love, probably the best backfield in the country when you think about one-two punch,” Rhoades said. “Going into the Southern Cal game, they lost their starting center for the year, and they were able to overcome that and run for a bunch of yards, again, against Southern Cal.”
Why they could be lower: This all depends on how far BYU drops. The Cougars will most likely be at No. 10 above Notre Dame and the two-loss pack of teams, or at No. 12, and below OU and Texas but above Utah. If the Cougars drop to No. 12, Notre Dame would get a slight promotion by default this week.
Need to know: Notre Dame still has the best chance of any team to win out, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. The Panthers might be playing the best of any team in the ACC during their five-game winning streak. They also had a bye week to prepare for the Irish.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns had a bye after earning a top-12 spot in the first ranking. Texas has won four straight, including CFP top-25 wins against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Vandy needed overtime to beat a 4-6 Auburn team Saturday, but that win should continue to help the Longhorns’ résumé. The Oct. 4 loss at Florida remains a stain on that résumé, though. The Longhorns’ 14-7 season-opening road defeat to No. 1-ranked Ohio State isn’t what keeps Texas out of the playoff.
Why they could be lower: It depends on how far BYU falls after losing 29-7 to Texas Tech on Saturday. BYU’s lone win against a CFP top-25 team was a 24-21 decision at home over Utah on Oct. 18. BYU entered Week 11 ranked No. 45 in strength of schedule, while Texas was No. 11. BYU didn’t lose to Florida, though — its lone defeat is to a CFP top-10 team.
Need to know: No team has a better opportunity to impress the selection committee in the final three weeks of the season than Texas, which will face two CFP top-five teams in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M. If Texas splits those games and finishes as a three-loss team, it could still be ranked in the top 12 but might not make the playoff. It would be a similar situation to what happened to three-loss Alabama last year, which finished No. 11 on Selection Day, but was excluded from the playoff to make room for ACC champion Clemson. If Texas wins both games, it could jump Notre Dame and put the Irish in a similarly precarious position at No. 11 or No. 12.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M. It certainly won’t be easy to win at Georgia on Saturday, but the Longhorns had a bye week to prepare for it while the Bulldogs were on the road. Texas will face in-state rival Texas A&M on a Friday night in the regular-season finale, the second top-five team it will face in a three-week span.
Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye but are stuck behind Texas because of their head-to-head loss to the Longhorns on Oct. 11. Wins against Tennessee and Michigan, though, have them within range of making the 12-team field, and it helped that the committee ranked the Vols No. 25 as its highest-ranked three-loss team.
Why they could be lower: The selection committee probably wouldn’t shuffle this order, considering Texas and Oklahoma were off this week, but OU could stay at 12 in the second ranking if the committee keeps BYU in the top 10.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oklahoma would still be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will be in a must-win situation in Tuscaloosa, as the rest of their résumé likely won’t be enough to compensate for a third loss, given that they’re already on the bubble in the eyes of the committee.
Why they could be here: The Cougars have a good win (Oct. 18 against Utah) and an eyebrow-raising defeat (Saturday). Texas Tech is a good team, but how BYU lost to the Red Raiders will matter. BYU was outplayed, and its offense was stifled: 67 rushing yards, 3 turnovers, 4.9 yards per pass, while converting just 3 of 14 third downs. A drop behind two-loss Texas and Oklahoma isn’t unreasonable. The Cougars have three wins against teams with fewer than four losses: Utah (7-2), Arizona (6-3) and East Carolina (6-3). But they entered Saturday ranked No. 45 in strength of schedule — significantly behind Notre Dame (23), Texas (11) and Oklahoma (13). The loss to Texas Tech opens the door for the committee to reevaluate BYU’s body of work. The committee would still likely honor BYU’s head-to-head win against Utah, though, giving the Cougars a safety net to stay in the top 12.
Why they could be higher: It was BYU’s first loss of the season, on the road, and to a top-10 team leading the nation in defensive efficiency.
Need to know: If BYU runs the table and reaches the Big 12 title game, it would clinch a spot in the playoff with a win. What happens if the Cougars finish as a two-loss runner-up with a second lopsided loss to Texas Tech? Where they’re placed in the committee’s second ranking Tuesday night will provide some insight and show how much margin for error they might have. If they land at No. 12 on Selection Day, even as the Big 12 runner-up, they’d be excluded to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is projected to be South Florida out of the American Conference.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati. The Big 12 race isn’t over yet, and Cincinnati might have something to say about it — unless the Bearcats play the way they did during a 45-14 loss at Utah. Cincinnati still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game behind Texas Tech and BYU.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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