A football player, a killing and the elusive search for justice
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
Warning: This story contains graphic descriptions of violence.
THE DOOR SWUNG open before he could knock, just as it had the first time Isimemen “Isi” Etute visited Apartment 207. That time, Etute had come for sex. Now, he wanted answers.
It was May 31, 2021, just after 10 p.m., and the apartment above Hokie Mart on North Main Street in Blacksburg, Virginia, was dark, save for a hint of light sneaking through a kitchen window. Etute, with his phone’s flashlight on and stuffed in his pocket, walked inside, leaving two of his Virginia Tech football teammates in the hallway.
Above, on a half-flight of stairs, Etute could just barely make out the slight shape of Angie Renee, whom he had met on Tinder in early April. He was an 18-year-old freshman linebacker. According to her profile, she was a 28-year-old physician at a family health clinic. Before their first meeting, she had told Etute that, because of her job, discretion was paramount so she kept the apartment dark. Etute didn’t question the explanation, and even if he had tried to flick on the overhead light, it wouldn’t have mattered. The bulb was unscrewed.
From the staircase, Angie motioned for Etute to follow, leading him to the bedroom, where she asked him to sit on the left side of the bed, just as he had during their first encounter. That time, she had performed oral sex in a pitch-black room, and afterward, Etute’s teammates taunted and teased him, suggesting she might not have been who she claimed. Now, Etute told her to bend over the side of the bed so they could have sex. He wanted to “feel around and see if it felt like a normal woman.” She did as he asked, pulling her tights down, then grabbing Etute’s hand and moving it between her legs. It didn’t feel right.
With his left hand, Etute pulled the phone from his pocket and ripped the hood from Angie’s head. The light revealed what appeared to be a man with short dark hair and stubble.
Etute stepped back from the bed, dazed.
“Why didn’t you tell me you was a [man]?” Etute asked.
Angie spun around on the bed, looked up and smiled.
“I’m not,” Angie said in a soft voice, reaching for Etute’s pants.
Etute slapped Angie’s hand away and delivered a punch to the jaw, knocking Angie to the floor.
Etute punched again, then again and again. As Angie lay prone on the floor, Etute kicked Angie twice and ran for the door, leaving a trail of bloody footprints behind.
THE DOOR TO Apartment 207 was still open when John Smith and his son arrived on the night of June 1, 2021.
John had called his brother, Jerry, that morning and gotten no answer. That was strange, because Jerry typically picked up on the first ring. John tried back a few hours later. Still nothing.
Concerned, John made the short drive from Newport, Virginia, to Jerry’s apartment on Main Street in Blacksburg.
John walked inside and called for his brother while his son waited near the door. A bathroom light was on downstairs, but upstairs, it was dark, save the light from the alleyway that shone through the kitchen window. John climbed the half-flight of stairs, then turned left to face the bedroom. There, on the floor, was 40-year-old Jerry Smith, covered in blood, his broken glasses next to him. He was wearing a dark sweatshirt emblazoned with the words “Blacksburg Rescue Squad” and a pair of tights pulled down to his thighs.
John nudged his brother’s shoulder with his foot. The body was stiff. He pulled his phone from his pocket and dialed 911.
Jerry Smith had maintained numerous accounts on Tinder, Twitter, Facebook and other social media sites, posing as a 28-year-old woman named Angie Renee to lure straight men to his apartment, an investigation later showed. The photos he used were stolen from a former Virginia Tech student he had never met.
In reality, Smith was tall and thin, a middle-aged white man who had lived as openly gay for most of his adult life. During the previous two decades he had been charged with crimes ranging from fraud to sexual battery, and in the aftermath of Etute’s arrest, a litany of witnesses came forward accusing Smith of harassment, fraud and assault.
Etute, 18, was an early enrollee at Virginia Tech whose high school classmates had just celebrated their prom. He was 6-foot-3 and more than 220 pounds at the time, quiet, close with a handful of teammates but still new to a place where he had dreamed of football glory.
Months earlier, Jerry had complained to the building manager when security cameras were installed in the hallway, suggesting it was an invasion of privacy. Now, footage from those cameras showed three men outside Smith’s apartment on the night of May 31. They were identified as Virginia Tech football players Isi Etute, Jordan Brunson and Jalen Hampton. Only Etute went inside, staying less than three minutes. Eight bloody footprints traced his path back down the hallway to the exit.
Police arrested Etute two days later and charged him with second-degree murder, which carried a possible prison sentence of up to 40 years.
The particulars of the case were never in question. Prosecutors admitted Smith had used a fraudulent account to lure Etute to his apartment. Etute admitted inflicting the injuries that led to Smith’s death. But as the details of their relationship became public, the notion of justice became more complicated. There was the unsympathetic victim, the defendant portrayed as a naive teenager duped into a sexual liaison, and a knife hidden beneath Smith’s mattress — a weapon Etute didn’t know existed, but one that offered an opening to a self-defense claim at trial.
ESPN spoke with more than two dozen people — including Etute, his family, and Smith’s friends and neighbors — interviewed catfishing and cybercrime experts, reviewed security footage, and examined hundreds of pages of correspondence, police reports and trial transcripts to understand how two divergent lives intersected with such violence, and after the jury’s verdict, whether anyone felt justice had been served.
As the jury deliberated, John Smith stood on a veranda on the third floor of the courthouse. He shook his head, staring across the hallway at Etute and his crowd of supporters, and he wondered aloud whether his brother’s dreams would be the only ones that disappeared that night.
“Do you think,” John Smith asked, “he’ll get to play football again?”
JERRY PAUL SMITH was born May 18, 1981, and grew up in Giles County, Virginia, just a few miles from the Virginia Tech campus. Smith’s father, also named Jerry, worked at a local textile plant, and was killed in an industrial accident there when Jerry was 9. Jerry’s relationship with his mother, Sandy, was strained, and he had little in common with his older brother, John, according to Vicki Tickle, who moved next door to the Smith family in 1987.
Jerry had seizures when he was young, and the medication he took to treat them made his hands shake. He was self-conscious, shy and timid, Tickle said.
“Growing up,” she said, “he really had a hard life.”
Chelsea Keating, who was Smith’s classmate at Giles County High School, remembers him as an outsider, tall and lanky with a big heart and a twisted sense of humor.
“He was just a skinny kid with these big ears,” Keating said.
Tickle remembers Sandy Smith calling one afternoon when Jerry was in high school. She asked her to come by the house for a visit. When Tickle arrived, Sandy was sitting at the kitchen table. It was clear she’d been crying. Sandy made coffee, and her hands shook as she sipped from the mug. Finally she blurted out the reason for the visit: Jerry had told her he was gay.
“She didn’t take it well,” Tickle said.
Sandy told Tickle she loved her son, but she was concerned.
“I’m scared,” Tickle recounted Sandy saying, “that somebody’s going to hurt him.”
Giles County is a rural mountain community nestled in the Appalachian Highlands. It is a deeply conservative place, said Justin Callahan, who attended high school with Smith. It was, Callahan said, a miserable place for a teenager struggling to understand their identity.
“I was bullied relentlessly throughout elementary school and high school because people, I guess, perceived I was gay,” Callahan said. “I consider it nothing short of a miracle that I made it out of that alive.”
Finley Hartley moved to Giles County when she was a high school sophomore, and she immediately knew she didn’t belong. In Smith, she found a kindred spirit. She wore vintage men’s pants she had purchased at thrift stores. He spoke with a lilting, feminine, Southern twang, she said.
“What I remember is our shared goofiness, and, perhaps, a touch of shared nonconformity,” she said. “He wasn’t pretending to be macho, and I wasn’t pretending to be feminine.”
Smith took Hartley to his senior prom. It was nothing romantic, she said — “I truly didn’t yet know what queer was” — but for Hartley, it felt magical. She wore a dress. He wore a nice suit. For one night, she said, they belonged.
A few weeks later, Smith graduated. The last time Hartley saw him was a year or so later. Smith was visiting their high school, and she remembered rushing to the hallway to hug him.
“I credit [Smith] as a kind soul who befriended an outcast,” she said.
His former classmate Keating said he could be funny and outgoing, but Smith also had a reputation as a fabulist, frequently exaggerating his own accomplishments.
Keating heard about Smith telling classmates he had been accepted at Duke University. In reality, he enrolled at New River Community College in Dublin, Virginia, in the fall of 2001. He studied forensic science but didn’t receive a degree.
Keating hadn’t seen her old classmate in years when, in the spring of 2021, she read a news story about a man who was killed by a Virginia Tech football player in an apartment in Blacksburg. His name was Jerry Smith, but Keating couldn’t believe it was her Jerry — until she saw the photo that accompanied the story.
“Those were his ears,” she said. “That was Jerry Paul.”
ON THE OPPOSITE side of Virginia, Isi Etute was born Dec. 6, 2002, the third of David and Nichelle Etute’s four children. David met Nichelle in the late 1990s after immigrating to the U.S. from Nigeria. The pair settled near her family in the busy tourist haven of Virginia Beach.
Isi grew tall, with broad shoulders and an athletic build, a far closer resemblance to his mother than his father, but he remembers, as a kid, eating meals in front of the TV with David so the two could watch football.
Isi began playing when he was 6, and he was immensely competitive. Nichelle remembers a time when her son was 9 and he was kicked with a cleat during a flag football game, forcing him to the sideline with an injury. It was all she could do to keep him from running back onto the field.
At Frank W. Cox High School, Etute excelled playing receiver, linebacker and safety. His football career became central to his family — an army of aunts and uncles and grandparents invading stadiums every Friday to see him play. At the center of the fanfare was always his younger sister, who has Down syndrome along with several severe health issues that require around-the-clock care. Still, she never missed a game, showing up with a nurse in tow, cheering on her big brother.
Etute had a knack for connecting with people, his friend Natalie Jones said. He wasn’t always the best student, but he was quick with a joke and moved easily between cliques.
“I liked everyone to feel included,” Etute told ESPN in fall 2022.
Etute’s football career blossomed, and he earned scholarship offers from a number of high-profile colleges, including NC State, West Virginia and Wake Forest, but he was determined to play in his home state. He visited Virginia Tech once, on a trip with his older brother, Ehis, and he fell in love.
“He was pretty quiet,” coach Justin Fuente remembered, “but he was really excited to be there.”
Etute enrolled at Virginia Tech in January 2021, five months before the rest of his high school class graduated. He made the 300-mile drive along US-460 from Virginia Beach to Blacksburg with his mom and dad. It would be his first time alone, away from his close-knit family and the world he had known growing up.
At trial, Etute’s lawyer asked him whether his parents had offered any parting advice as they delivered him to college that day.
“They just told me to stay focused in school and to not get involved with drugs or alcohol,” Etute testified. “And to just watch who I hang around with.”
ETUTE ARRIVED AT Virginia Tech as death rates from the COVID-19 pandemic peaked in the U.S. An early exposure meant Etute spent his first few weeks in Blacksburg in isolation, and by the time spring practice arrived, he had met few people outside the team.
On Tinder, however, it was easy for a new arrival on campus to meet people.
Etute swiped right on Angie Renee on April 10, 2021, and sent the first message at 9:37 a.m.: “Yo.”
Etute had heard stories of catfishing before, but he found little to be wary of, as many of his friends and teammates had used Tinder without issue. Nearly everyone he knew used the app to find dates. A 2020 study by Pew Research found that more than half of college students use some sort of dating app. For athletes, Etute said, it wasn’t uncommon for women to come across as particularly forward.
Etute and Angie exchanged several messages before she offered an invitation to her apartment. Etute was initially concerned about the meeting and asked to bring a friend. Angie agreed, messaging that she would have sex with both of them. That night, Etute and teammate Da’Shawn Elder rode scooters to Angie’s apartment, arriving around 9:45 p.m. It was raining, and Etute’s cellphone battery was nearly dead.
The men entered through a door that faced a side alleyway, walked up a flight of stairs then down a long hallway to Apartment 207. The door opened as they approached.
“I was scared instantly,” Elder testified. “It was just dark, and I didn’t really like the whole atmosphere.”
Angie led both men into the bedroom and motioned toward the left side of the bed, but Elder refused to follow and instead turned to leave. Etute chased his teammate down the stairs and asked him to return, but Elder wouldn’t. He picked up his scooter and rode away.
Undeterred, Etute went back to the apartment and asked Angie to charge his cellphone. Etute then followed her to the bedroom and sat on the left side of the bed. Angie pulled off Etute’s pants and performed oral sex for “probably seven or eight minutes,” according to Etute.
Elder had called several teammates and explained the situation, and they insisted he return to the apartment and force Etute to leave. So he circled back, climbed the stairs, walked down the long hallway and opened the door to Apartment 207.
“I was scared for my life,” Elder testified, “but I was scared for his because he went back.”
Etute testified that, when he heard Elder at the door, he told Angie to stop and he pulled up his pants. Before he left, Angie handed him $50. He grabbed the cash and his phone, then met Elder at the door. When they reached the street, Etute looked at his phone. He had a text from Angie that she had sent the first time he left the apartment, when his phone battery was nearly dead.
“I’ll pay you $50,” it read. “I’ll be your sugar momma. I want you to keep coming back.”
MONTHS BEFORE ETUTE arrived at Virginia Tech, Fred Jones was relaxing in his Blacksburg apartment when a Facebook message popped up from a woman he didn’t know.
“Hey, sexy,” it read.
Her name was Angie Renee. She said she had recently graduated from Duke. Her profile included photos of a young, white brunette, and she shared additional pictures of herself out with friends.
Jones, who is straight, Black and was 31 at the time, wrote back, offering little information. He worried he was being scammed, but he was curious.
Angie’s responses quickly became graphic. She sent Jones several images of a woman’s genitals, and invited him to her apartment. But due to her job, she said, she couldn’t let him see her face.
“I live above Hokie Mart also I am doctor so I must be discreet,” read one message Jones shared with ESPN, which was followed by an offer of oral sex.
Jones was among the more than three dozen people who reached out to police or defense attorneys in the aftermath of Etute’s arrest and alleged similar interactions with Jerry Smith, some dating back nearly a decade.
Smith’s first known arrest came four months before Etute was born. He was training to become an EMT in August 2002, when his bunkmate at the Read Mountain fire house in Roanoke told police that, while he was sleeping, Smith reached into his boxer shorts and touched his genitals. Police reports show Smith, then 21, was booked into Botetourt County jail, but sentencing records were destroyed after the standard 10-year period.
According to police records and background checks compiled by Etute’s defense team, Smith was cited, arrested or involved in at least 36 criminal incidents in Virginia — ranging from charges of felony larceny and felony embezzlement to a conviction for computer trespass. None resulted in more than a few days of jail time.
In Blacksburg, Smith worked for a number of restaurants while claiming to be the vice president of the Roanoke Regional Restaurant Group, a company he had founded that used his apartment as its corporate address and had no other employees. He founded an LGBTQ+ advocacy group as well, but the nonprofit had no online presence, physical office or other employees.
It’s unclear exactly when Smith began to impersonate women on the internet, but a police report filed in Roanoke suggests he’d been using the “Angie” alias since at least 2015, when a mother discovered sexually explicit Facebook messages between her underage son and a person named Angie. She hired a private investigator, who ultimately tracked the account back to Smith. No charges were filed.
Liz Tabulous lived with Smith off and on for three years in the mid-2010s, and she said Smith routinely announced he was expecting a date, then would turn off the lights in the apartment and request Tabulous keep her distance. Over time, she grew suspicious. Nearly all of the dates were Black men, she said, and most appeared to be young.
Smith and Tabulous were sharing an apartment in Roanoke on Dec. 26, 2014, when Tabulous told police she awoke to a Black man rummaging through her purse around 2 a.m. She’d been out for drinks with Smith that night, then returned to the apartment to sleep. According to police reports, Smith had been pushed to the ground by one man, while another said Smith had given him permission to take money from her purse. The building and apartment both had safety code locks on the doors. Smith denied knowing how the suspects had entered.
In May 2016, Smith was living in Roanoke when he called police to say he woke up to a Black male choking him. He said he fought the suspect off, sustaining minor injuries, including scratches on his neck, ear and back, before running to the local fire department for help. Police noted nothing was missing. There is no record of any subsequent arrests.
After Smith’s death, police received additional reports covering the three previous years, recounting incidents of young, straight men receiving unprompted messages on social media from a woman named Angie Renee, or matching with her on dating sites, frequently followed by an invitation to an apartment above the Hokie Mart.
Angie Renee’s profile had been reported to Tinder as a potential fake several times, but a Tinder spokesperson said the account holder was always able to respond to the automated verification request and prove the account was not a bot. At the time, Tinder offered users an option to have a verified symbol on their profile by uploading a selfie that the app then used to verify that the pictures on the account were of the user. The profile of Angie Renee did not have this verification badge. Tinder has since made this step required.
Fred Jones saw too many red flags in his 2020 interaction with Angie Renee. He texted details to a friend, who responded that Angie Renee had reached out to him, too. Neither went to the apartment.
It was only after he read details of Etute’s arrest that Jones realized he’d been trading messages with Jerry Smith. Days later, he called Etute’s defense team and offered to help.
THE STORY OF Etute’s encounter made the rounds among his teammates. Several of his friends, including Elder, teased him, suggesting Etute could’ve gotten a sexually transmitted disease and wondering whether Angie “could have been a dude,” according to testimony. Etute said he was tested for STDs but brushed off the suggestion that Angie was a man as a “joke.”
“I was still sure it was a female, but it was possible,” Etute testified when asked whether he thought Angie was a male.
Angie continued to text Etute, asking him several times to return to the apartment. Now wary of the situation, Etute testified that he blocked the number but that she soon began to text from other numbers, too.
As the semester drew to a close, Etute was still bothered by the encounter. He had gone home to Virginia Beach after classes ended in May and had recounted the incident to a friend, who advised Etute to reconnect with Angie to learn the truth.
Etute was back near campus on May 31, 2021, attending a girls’ high school soccer game in Roanoke when he got a call from teammate Jalen Hampton, who said he, too, had matched with Angie Renee.
Hampton’s introduction to Angie followed a similar script to Etute’s. They had connected on Tinder, and, after an initial exchange of messages, Angie invited Hampton to meet for sex.
Hampton spoke with Angie on the phone that afternoon and, although he found the conversation “sketchy,” he still went to the apartment.
The door opened before he knocked. It was dark, but he could make out the silhouette of a tall, slender figure. Hampton stood in the doorway, worried he might be robbed.
Over text, Angie had explained that she worked at a hospital and discretion was critical so she kept the apartment dark. But after he arrived, Hampton asked to see her face.
“I already told you,” she said, “you can’t.”
Hampton spent just a few minutes in the apartment, attempting to make small talk to ease his discomfort, but he couldn’t shake the feeling he was being set up, so he left.
Less than a minute later, Hampton’s phone began to ping. Angie sent a slew of texts, saying that he was “annoying” and that if he had concerns, he should talk to his teammate, Isi Etute.
“Do you think it could be a man?” Etute asked Hampton.
“Yeah,” Hampton said. “It could have been.”
Etute asked Hampton to return to the apartment to find out, but Hampton refused to go alone. Then, Etute’s phone pinged with a message from Angie: “Put in a good word with Jalen.”
Nearly two months after his first visit, Etute would return to the apartment with Hampton and another teammate, Jordan Brunson. If Angie was a man, they would run, Etute testified. If Angie was a woman, another sexual liaison might occur. Either way, he’d have closure.
At 9:45 p.m., Etute texted Angie that he was coming to the apartment.
Shortly before 10 p.m., Jerry Smith FaceTimed his brother, John. Jerry was in bed, and he spoke briefly with his 13-year-old nephew.
At 10:07 p.m., Etute, Hampton and Brunson arrived at the door to Apartment 207. Before Etute could knock, it opened.
THREE MINUTES LATER, Etute rushed out into the hallway, breathing heavily and crying. He pulled off a blood-spattered Virginia Tech sweatshirt as he darted toward the stairwell. Elder and Brunson, who had both waited in the hallway outside, followed.
Etute retreated to the curb, his knuckles bloodied, and refused to speak.
“He seemed broken,” Elder said, “like everything that was in him just shattered.”
They did not call 911 or report the incident to police. Despite the bloody footprints he had left on his way out of the building, Etute testified that he had seen only a small amount of blood on Smith’s face and that he did not believe he had seriously hurt him.
The three men departed the scene, and Etute drove Brunson to an off-campus apartment. During the car ride, Brunson testified, Etute said just four words: “It was a guy.”
Etute then drove back to the house where he’d been staying between semesters and phoned his older brother, Ehis.
He cried as he shared details of the incident, ignoring repeated calls from Elder and Brunson, who now worried their teammate might be suicidal.
“I wouldn’t even say [I was] angry,” Etute later testified. “I was destroyed. … I just felt violated and lied to and just tricked into doing sexual acts.”
The next morning, Etute attended football drills, but he said it was mostly a blur. When practice ended, he drove his BMW into the mountains along Highway 460, past the Smith homestead. He found a place he could pull off and park. He sat on the hood of the car and stared out over the vast expanse of rolling hills.
“It was a feeling like I escaped from reality,” Etute said. “I was just there, alone, and not worrying about anything else.”
ETUTE SAID HE had slept for less than two hours from the time he left Smith’s apartment on May 31 to the moment police arrived at his door shortly before 6 a.m. on June 2.
“I already know what this is about,” he told them.
The night before, police had found the nearly unrecognizable body of Jerry Smith. He had injuries to his eyes, cheeks and lips. At least four teeth were knocked out. At trial, the commonwealth’s medical examiner said frothing around Smith’s mouth suggested he had inhaled blood from his facial injuries, and although she could not estimate how long it took Smith to die, she said it was possible he had lain on his floor for hours before taking his final breath.
In an interrogation room at the Blacksburg police station, Etute answered questions from lead detective Ryan Hite for nearly an hour. He spoke nervously as he recounted his time in Smith’s apartment, and when Hite pressed him about his mental state, Etute said he was upset, “because he got his dick sucked by a dude,” according to Hite’s testimony.
During questioning, Etute told detectives he believed he had punched Smith five times and kicked him once. Although police never specifically asked Etute whether he had acted in self-defense, he did not suggest he had feared for his life, nor did he say Smith had reached for the mattress, where police later discovered the knife. The only defense Smith offered during the fight, Etute said, was a swatting motion, which he demonstrated for police.
Near the conclusion of the questioning, police told Etute that Smith was dead.
Etute broke down. He later testified that he pictured his future evaporating as Hite’s words hung in the air.
“I was in a state of shock,” Etute told ESPN. “I froze up. This was serious. I was panicking.”
Hampton, Elder and Brunson were also questioned by police, and all were released. It was clear from security camera footage that none had entered Smith’s apartment.
Etute was arrested and booked on a charge of second-degree murder.
It was only after police completed their search of Smith’s apartment, hours after interviewing Etute, that they discovered a knife between the mattress and box spring. It was a standard kitchen knife with a serrated edge and a black handle, the blade less than 6 inches long. It was found on the left side of the bed, where Etute had twice been instructed to sit. The handle pointed out an inch or two from the edge of the box spring.
The weapon would become the cornerstone of Etute’s self-defense claim.
ETUTE’S TRIAL BEGAN in the Montgomery County Courthouse in Christiansburg, Virginia, almost a year to the day after Smith’s death. The jury — nine women and four men — was tasked with determining whether Etute was guilty of second-degree murder, which carried with it a possible 40-year prison sentence, guilty of the lesser count of voluntary manslaughter or not guilty by reason of self-defense.
Defense attorney Jimmy Turk told the jury Etute had been lured into a liaison by “nothing less than a sexual predator,” who preyed predominantly on young Black men “for his own sexual gratification, not caring about any consequences that it had on his young victims.”
Two years after he had traded messages with Angie Renee on Facebook, Fred Jones sat on a wooden bench outside the courtroom, hoping to testify on Etute’s behalf. For three days, Jones waited. He was never called. Nearly all of Smith’s history of catfishing was barred from the trial, save his online interactions with Etute and Hampton, because Etute had been unaware of it at the time of Smith’s death.
Turk showcased Smith’s interactions with his client with poster-sized screen shots of the Angie Renee Tinder profile and the graphic text exchanges Angie had with Etute.
The prosecution, led by assistant commonwealth’s attorneys Patrick Jensen and Jason Morgan, focused on the details of the incident. Of the eight witnesses called by the commonwealth, only Smith’s brother, John, knew him when he was alive, yet his testimony rarely veered into the personal, beyond an acknowledgement of Jerry’s sexuality during Turk’s cross-examination.
Turk: “You knew he was posing as a straight female, correct?”
John Smith: “No. … I didn’t approve of being gay, so I wasn’t [aware].”
Smith’s autopsy showed nearly every bone in his face had been broken — his nose, his right eye, both cheekbones, the bone over the upper lip and his upper jaw. Images of Smith’s battered face flickered on a screen in the courtroom as the medical examiner explained that Smith had suffered multiple hemorrhages in the right frontal part of his brain, which caused his brain to swell. The medical examiner said Etute had kicked Smith in the face at least twice — the first covering Etute’s sandal in blood, and a second one that left a bloody imprint of the Tommy Hilfiger logo and tread pattern on Smith’s cheek. There were no defensive wounds on Smith’s arms or hands. The medical examiner ruled Smith had died of blunt force trauma.
“There is not a lot to unpack in this case,” Morgan told the jury, acknowledging the lie that initially brought Etute to Smith’s apartment. “And Mr. Etute had every right to be angry at the situation. But Jerry Paul Smith did not deserve to die.”
Turk suggested there was far less certainty and introduced “the reach” — the moment when Etute said he saw Smith reach toward the left side of the bed. Before Etute entered the apartment, Brunson warned him to be careful, noting Angie could have a gun hidden somewhere. When Smith reached back toward the bed, Turk argued, Etute’s first thought was of a gun. He believed running from the apartment would leave him vulnerable.
That Etute was unaware of the knife stashed beneath the mattress was immaterial, Turk said. Its existence offered ample proof that Smith was dangerous and that Etute was right to be afraid.
Turk cast Smith as the monster, pushing police on whether Smith, himself, would have been charged with a crime for sexual assault by ruse. He portrayed Etute as “a typical teenager” with a bright future who had never before been charged with a crime.
During his testimony, Etute was so soft-spoken that jurors repeatedly asked him to speak louder or for the court to provide a microphone. Etute appeared embarrassed when reading aloud the explicit text messages Smith sent him.
“I was destroyed,” he testified. “I would never intentionally try to harm anyone, especially to the point of death, ever. I’ve never gotten into a fight my whole life, and those were not my intentions at all.”
In his closing argument, Turk pleaded with the jury to see Etute as a victim, breaking down in tears as he described his relationship with his client.
“I’ve got three daughters,” Turk told the jury, “and here is a young man sitting over there that, if I had a son, that’s exactly who I would want to have.”
In Jensen’s closing argument, he implored the jury to dismiss the notion of self-defense and, at the very least, find Etute guilty of voluntary manslaughter.
“I cannot explain to you why Jerry Smith created a profile on Tinder stating that he was a female wanting to meet or hook up or match with young males,” Jensen said in his closing argument. “I can’t explain it to you. I wish I could. There is one person who could have explained it, and that was Jerry Smith. We’ll never get that answer because the defendant killed Jerry Smith.”
AS THE JURY deliberated, friends and family of Smith and Etute stood in the promenade outside the courtroom.
John Smith, surrounded by family who had insisted from the outset that Jerry Smith was no predator, glared at Etute from across a long hallway. During preliminary hearings, family members had told TV reporters that Smith “would never hurt a fly” and wore matching T-shirts that read “Justice for Jerry.”
A few feet away, Etute’s family hugged and cried. Brunson, Hampton and Elder took turns wrapping their arms around their former teammate. Etute said he had felt “numb” through much of the trial, and it was only as the jury deliberated that he fully grasped what was at stake.
“It was a lot of emotions,” Etute said. “I was sweating. I was trying to keep everything together, but seeing my folks crying in front of me, I broke down.”
After three hours of deliberations, court resumed. Etute sat silently next to Turk with his head bowed. The jury filed back with a verdict, which the clerk read aloud: “We the jury find the defendant, Isi David Etute, not guilty.”
A gasp arose from the audience.
Etute fell to his knees and slumped under the defense table, remaining there as a celebration erupted around him.
John Smith smacked the bench in front of him, a thud echoing through the courtroom, before Jerry Smith’s cousins, uncles and aunts, friends and neighbors left the courtroom.
“We couldn’t believe it,” said neighbor Vicki Tickle, who attended the trial. “I was shocked.”
Dave Gittings, the Virginia Tech team chaplain, led Etute’s legal team and family in a prayer — one of thanks, he said, and for forgiveness.
“It was an opportunity, yes, to celebrate,” Gittings said, “but also to be reminded that a life is gone. Part of my prayer was gratitude and relief and thankfulness, but the other part was just sincere humility after such a tragic thing.”
JOHN SMITH STILL lives in Giles County with his two sons, where he owns a trucking company that bears the family name. Jerry’s death and the jury’s verdict, Tickle said, have left a hole in the family.
John Smith declined to speak for this story, although he told ESPN at the trial that he believed Etute met with Jerry willingly and that his brother was not a predator. He vehemently disagreed with the verdict.
“I saw pain in him that I’d never seen before,” Tickle said of John. “That was his brother. And his sons thought the sun rose and set with Jerry.”
Blacksburg today retains barely a hint of Jerry Smith. A few remnants of his work in local restaurants remain — an old local news clip where he discusses the impact of the pandemic on small businesses, lapsed LLCs.
At the D.P. Dough restaurant where Smith worked, a manager denied knowledge of Smith’s activities. She had known him, she said, but she wasn’t interested in talking. She wanted the story to go away.
Blacksburg Police and the commonwealth’s attorney’s office both declined ESPN’s request for comment on the case and the jury’s verdict.
Etute’s arrest had initially been followed by a flurry of concern from local and national LGBTQ+ groups who wondered whether Smith’s death had been a hate crime, but after the verdict, ESPN asked for comment from nearly a dozen advocacy groups around Virginia, including several affiliated with Virginia Tech, and none replied.
“I don’t know that Jerry’s life meant as much to people as it should have,” said former classmate Justin Callahan.
Smith’s high school friend Chelsea Keating still lives in Blacksburg, and she said many of her friends and neighbors — people she had grown up with who had known Smith as a boy — shrugged off his death and cheered the verdict.
“Everybody is sort of justifying [Smith’s] murder because of all these things that came out,” Keating said. “But Etute didn’t know that. It’s not like he was being a vigilante. I’m not saying what Jerry did was OK, but he didn’t deserve to be stomped to death.”
Tickle gets emotional now thinking about the sweet kid who used to walk to her house and ask her for help tying his necktie because he could never quite learn to do it on his own.
He had wanted to be a paramedic, she said, and she remembers a time when her husband, Bill, was bedridden in 2007, in the late stages of cancer. In a failed attempt to climb from his bed, he had ripped out his catheter. The house was in chaos, with Tickle’s children yelling, “Daddy’s bleeding!” Tickle called her neighbor.
Jerry Smith ran to her house, called for medical assistance and draped a blanket over Bill. Then he pulled up a chair and sat next to him, patting his head and smoothing his hair to keep him calm until medics arrived.
The Jerry Smith she knew was so much better than any of the stories he had created.
“I told him so many times to just be himself, to be honest and kind, and not to worry about trying to impress anyone with lies,” Tickle said. “People would love him a lot more for just being Jerry, but he just wanted to be thought of as more.”
IT HAS BEEN more than two years since Etute darted from the apartment above Hokie Mart. He’s 20 now. He insists he has grown.
“[My mother] is helping me along the journey getting closer to God, too,” Etute said. “It changed the way I think about everything, really.”
There are lots of days when Etute thinks back on all that has happened and wishes things were different, wishes he had never met Jerry Smith. Things happen for a reason, though, he said. That’s one of those lessons his mother has preached.
“The only thing that I could take from it is just, at least they’re not going to be able to do this to anyone else,” Etute told ESPN after the trial. “If, let’s say, I was even locked up right now, I’d just still be thinking, ‘At least he’s not doing this to more people and just messing up people’s lives.'”
After the trial, Etute reached out to a number of coaches who had recruited him out of high school, but none was willing to offer a roster spot. The trial had ended well past the time in which most schools were still adding transfers, and Etute, who had been suspended from Virginia Tech’s football team upon his arrest, had now missed a year of training and practice. But more than that, there was a stigma attached to his name, as one coach who had originally recruited Etute told ESPN. A jury found him not guilty, but he had killed someone.
Brunson, Elder and Hampton all transferred from Virginia Tech as well. None found a scholarship at another Power 5 school. Brunson landed at Miami (Ohio), Elder at Middle Tennessee and Hampton at Elon. All declined to talk to ESPN, but Elder’s mother wondered whether her son was seen as a pariah for his role in the events leading up to Smith’s death.
Although Etute said few people from Virginia Tech stayed in touch after his arrest, his former coach was the one who found him a new place to play. Justin Fuente was fired midway through the 2021 season — less than six months after Etute’s arrest — but he felt compelled to help.
Fuente reached out to Iowa Western Junior College and facilitated an offer.
“I felt like I owed it to him,” Fuente said. “Every part of this is just a tragedy, but I didn’t want his life to be ruined because of it.”
Iowa Western athletic director Shane Larson said the school had numerous conversations with Etute, his family and coaches before bringing Etute to campus.
In August 2022, Etute moved to Council Bluffs, Iowa, a small town on the edge of the Missouri River, where he’s a general studies major and hopes to become a physical therapist. His brother, Ehis, enrolled at Iowa Western, too, and he spent the 2022-23 academic year living in a dorm room next to Isi’s.
Iowa Western won the 2022 junior college national championship, finishing with a 10-2 record. Etute didn’t play a snap. He lost more than 30 pounds during his time under house arrest, and he used the year to train with the team and get back into playing shape.
It was time, too, to come to terms with all that has happened in his life and begin to script a new path forward. That’s his focus now, he said.
With a little more than two minutes left in the first quarter of Iowa Western Community College’s 2023 opener, Etute jogged onto the field for his first official snap of football in nearly three years.
There were only a few dozen fans on the visiting side of the bleachers in Dodge City, Kansas. He had no family in attendance, and there were no news cameras there to chronicle the moment. He wore a white Reivers jersey with the No. 35 on the back and no nameplate.
On his third snap of the game, Etute came off the edge and helped wrap up the ball carrier in the backfield. There was no fanfare, no celebration, no obvious sign of all that had come before.
When Etute was first arrested, he said he believed he might never see the outside of a prison cell again. After the verdict was delivered, and Etute was officially set free, he said he felt as if he was “walking on eggshells” for weeks.
Now on a football field 1,200 miles from Virginia Tech, Etute was mostly reserved on the sideline, always on the periphery of a scrum of players celebrating a turnover or recapping a play, but he was in a place that felt good.
Turk’s family has remained close with Etute. They still text weekly, and in the summer, Etute visits Turk’s lake house.
“He’s in a good spot now,” Turk said. “His head is on straight. He’s had time to reflect.”
Etute wants to believe in a future beyond Jerry Smith, one where his life is defined by his friends and family and his success on the field. But he can’t forget.
“I never would’ve thought I’d be responsible for taking a life,” Etute said. “I always feel bad about it, but at the same time, I try to just move forward. I ask for forgiveness every day.”
Etute’s history isn’t common fodder in Council Bluffs, but occasionally, he said, a teammate inquires about how he landed at Iowa Western. Sometimes he recounts it all. Other times he tells them they can go read about it. The story is out there.
Tonya Simpson contributed to this story.
College football’s Class of 2026 features a record 23 five-star prospects atop ESPN’s latest top 300 rankings for the cycle. Among that group, only seven remain uncommitted, including No. 1 overall prospect Lamar Brown and top running back Derrek Cooper, No. 7 in the ESPN 300. After nearly one-third of the 2026 five-star class made their commitments between May 1 and June 30, a handful more are set to come off the board in July.
For each commitment, recruiting reporter Eli Lederman and scouts Craig Haubert and Tom Luginbill will look at how recruits landed at their school and what we can expect in college:
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 2
School/Hometown: St. Frances Academy/Baltimore, Maryland
Committed to: Maryland Terrapins
Background: Once ranked as the cycle’s No. 1 defender, Elee committed to Maryland on Dec. 7, 2024, after logging 120 total tackles and 23 sacks across his sophomore and junior seasons. If he ultimately signs later this year, Elee will join the Terps as the highest-ranked recruit in program history.
Despite his December pledge, Elee stayed in touch with other Power 4 programs in January and initially scheduled spring official visits to Auburn, Ohio State, Penn State, South Carolina and Texas A&M before canceling those trips and formally shutting down his recruitment in late February. As things stand, Elee is still locked in with the Terps with his June 20 trip to Maryland standing as the only official visit on his calendar this spring.
Scout’s take: Good recruiting starts at home. If Maryland holds on to Elee, he’d be the first No. 1 prospect from the area to reach Maryland in the ESPN 300 era, and the first time in five cycles the Terps landed the top in-state prospect. At roughly 6-foot-4 with an 80-inch wingspan, Elee is a lean, lengthy and disruptive edge rusher. That length blended with an excellent first step and a strong motor wreaks havoc off the edge. Maryland ranked last in sacks (14) in the Big Ten in 2024. The Terps hope signing Elee and 2025 ESPN 300 defensive end Zahir Mathis will remedy that situation. They could emerge as one of the conference’s most formidable pass-rushing duos. — Craig Haubert
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 3
School/Hometown: Nixa High School/Nixa, Missouri
Committed to: Miami Hurricanes
Background: Cantwell is the son of two Olympic shot putters — including a silver medalist at the 2008 Beijing Games — and his commitment to the Hurricanes marks perhaps the biggest recruiting win in Mario Cristobal’s tenure leading Miami.
A towering, yet athletic lineman, Cantwell kept in-state Missouri and Michigan involved in his process before cutting his finalists to Georgia, Miami, Ohio State and Oregon last month. Cantwell took a multi-day trip to see the Hurricanes in March and joins Miami as the program’s highest-ranked pledge since Cristobal took over following the 2021 season. Cantwell, a two-time state champion shot putter who holds multiple national high school throwing records, intends to continue his track and field career alongside football in college.
Scout’s take: A former offensive lineman at Miami, Cristobal has landed a key building block for that unit. The Canes’ O-Line unit looks to be strong this season, but could lose several pieces from that group after this season. Cristobal began reloading the unit in the Class of 2025, by signing the top interior offensive lineman in the country in S.J. Alofaituli, who projects to be in the mix this fall. Now the Canes has the No. 1 OT in the 2026 class.
Cantwell is a massive presence at roughly 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds and is powerful and tenacious in his play. Beyond his size, Cantwell is a flexible big body with good feet. He could have some growing pains early in his college career in pass protection, but should be expected to come in and play right away. His arrival could time well with the potential departure of 2023 five-star OL Francis Mauigoa who is projected as a 2026 first-round NFL pick. Cantwell could have a similar trajectory as Mauigoa in that he is a plug-and-play addition that experiences some early challenges but continues to develop into a key piece of the unit and an eventual NFL prospect. — Haubert
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 4
School/Hometown: Mater Dei/Santa Ana, California
Committed to: Ohio State Buckeyes
Background: The son of late Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chris Henry, Chris Henry Jr. has been committed since July 2023, longer than any other prospect within the 2026 ESPN 300.
A knee injury sidelined Henry for the majority of his junior campaign, but he proved himself as an elite playmaker in his last complete season, when he totaled 71 catches for 1,127 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns as a sophomore at Withrow (Ohio) High School in 2023. Initially set for official visits to Ohio State, Miami, Oregon and USC this spring, Henry shut down his recruitment April 1.
Scout’s take: To best maximize his traits, the Buckeyes will need to deploy Henry on the outside. He’s a one-on-one matchup problem on 50-50 balls whom Ohio State can maximize — particularly in the red zone. Even when covered, he isn’t really covered. Few wide receivers 6-foot-5 or taller can move, shake and produce after the catch like Henry. He shows an amazing run-and-catch aspect in the vertical passing game. Henry’s long arms and ability to elevate in traffic create distinct advantages on jump balls. His twitchiness is very similar to that of Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins and sets him apart from other receivers at this size. — Tom Luginbill
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 5
School/Hometown: Nashville, Tennessee/Nashville Christian
Committed to: Georgia Bulldogs
Background: Initially committed to Georgia in March 2024, Curtis took a winding road back to the Bulldogs’ 2026 class after he pulled his pledge and reopened his recruitment last October.
Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and South Carolina were all involved in Curtis’ process earlier this year. Curtis narrowed his options to the Bulldogs and Ducks in February, ultimately closing his recruitment with a series of visits and in-home meetings with both programs this spring prior to his May 5 announcement. In the 6-foot-4, 225-pound passer, coach Kirby Smart once again has the cycle’s top quarterback and a potential cornerstone for the program’s future under center.
Scout’s take: Curtis will join a QB room at Georgia that is loaded with former ranked prospects and his move will likely send one or more of those players to the transfer portal. Curtis has ideal size at 6-3, 222 pounds and has tracked at 18.5 MPH Max Speed which is impressive for someone his size. His measurable standard in every category tested meets or exceeds every measure you’d like to have in a QB prospect.
He has natural arm power, which is his best trait, and he makes throws from a lot of different arm angles. He has been clocked at a 4.8 40. He can be a crafty runner and use his athleticism, smarts and arm talent to make throws in and out of the pocket. — Luginbill
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 6
School/Hometown: American Heritage/Plantation, Florida
Committed to: Texas Longhorns
Background: Bell, the son of 12-year NBA veteran Raja Bell, is the longest-tenured member of the Longhorns’ 2026 class. He has been locked in with Texas since he committed in June 2024 following a series of visits with the program last spring.
A three-year starter at American Heritage, Bell threw for 2,597 yards and 29 touchdowns with a 70.6% completion percentage as a junior last fall before suffering a season-ending leg injury. Despite flip efforts from Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and LSU earlier this year, Bell’s sights remain set on signing with the Longhorns and coach Steve Sarkisian in December.
Scout’s take: Hopefully Bell takes a page out of Arch Manning’s development blueprint when it comes to patience and focus. He’s going to only get bigger, stronger and more mature without being thrown into the fire right away. Bell’s fit is quite similar to what Manning brought to the Longhorns. He’s a naturally gifted passer who is a better athlete and runner than Quinn Ewers and gives the Longhorns another player they can develop. Bell has continually performed at a high level against top high school competition and should be ready to make the leap to the next level. — Luginbill
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 8
School/Hometown: Grimsley High School/Greensboro, North Carolina
Committed to: Tennessee Volunteers
Background: Brandon committed to the Vols last August before totaling 2,159 passing yards and 27 touchdowns with one interception as a junior at Grimsley last fall.
Brandon remains in near-daily contact with the Tennessee staff and has not engaged with other programs in 2025. He is focused instead on helping recruit a 2026 Vols class that already includes ESPN 300 pass catchers in wide receiver Tyreek King and tight end Carson Sneed. Brandon will take his official visit to Tennessee on June 20.
Scout’s take: The departure of Nico Iamaleava could allow Brandon to battle for the starting job sooner rather than later in a very quarterback-friendly system. Several recent Volunteers quarterbacks have similar stature, athleticism and arm strength. Brandon is more advanced than Hendon Hooker at the same stage and the pair share several traits. Brandon is also much more accurate than Joe Milton. While he lacks Iamaleava’s polish at this stage, Brandon throws an exceptional deep ball, which is a requirement in this scheme that loves to attack vertically. — Luginbill
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 9
School/Hometown: Tupelo High School/Tupelo, Mississippi
Committed to: Florida Gators
Background: ESPN’s No. 2 defender in the 2026 class has logged 18.5 sacks and more than 140 total tackles over three varsity seasons. If he signs with the Gators in December, he’ll represent Florida’s highest-ranked defensive addition in more than a decade.
McCoy initially committed to LSU earlier this year before reopening his recruitment in February. He trimmed his list of finalists to Florida, LSU and Texas last month, then sealed his commitment to the Gators across a pair of visits with the program between May 30 and June 14. McCoy will join former No. 10 overall prospect L.J. McCray as the program’s second five-star defensive end when he arrives on campus in 2026.
Scout’s take: The Gators finished last season strong, creating optimism for 2025 and beyond in the Billy Napier era. Part of the strong close was improved defensive play, and while further improvement and more consistency is needed among its front, Florida is stacking some excellent young talent to further fuel the excitement.
Former ESPN 300 edge rusher signees Tyreak Sapp and Kamran James should help fuel their ascension, but defenders more recently added can boost this unit to another level. The hope is that McCray, a five-star in the 2024 class, will break out and several new high-ceiling D-line signings — including No. 6 DE Jalen Wiggins — can get involved.
Florida is stopping there and now add to the mix another five-star defender in McCoy. A breakout performer during the Under Armour All-America week this past January, that setting showcased his impact ability. He has elite length with a big frame and has demonstrated a competitive “alpha dog” nature and plays with a motor. He has also shown good practice habits and all those traits are accentuated with his excellent physical tools. He moves well with good flexibility and has excelled in combine testing situations. He can develop into an disruptive, top pass rusher but can also play the run and be a factor in pursuit with his mobility.
McCoy has shown all the tools, that with continued positive progress, would align with past top SEC defenders. With his build, size and competitiveness, he can offer versatility as he can pair with McCray at the Edge spot initially but could also play inside at DT.
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 10
School/Hometown: Hattiesburg/Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Committed to: LSU Tigers
Background: Keys, ESPN’s No. 2 wide receiver prospect, committed to LSU over Alabama, Tennessee and Texas A&M on March 19. He enters late spring as the Tigers’ top-ranked commit and the leader atop one of the nation’s deepest wide receiver classes alongside fellow ESPN 300 pass catchers and LSU pledges Jabari Mack, Jakai Anderson and Kenny Darby.
However, Keys’ recruitment might not be over. The 6-foot-3, 190-pound receiver followed his commitment to LSU with visits to Ole Miss, Auburn and Miami, and Keys is still expected to take a handful of officials later this spring as perhaps the top flip candidate among the committed five-star prospects in the 2026 class.
Scout’s take: Even if he’s not an elite runner, Keys’ combination of size, range and ball skills is unmatched. Former LSU receiver Brandon LaFell is a favorable comparison. The Tigers can use Keys’ length, long arms and physicality to create matchup headaches for defenses either inside or outside. Keys has great body control and coordination on jump balls, making him a dangerous threat even when covered. He won’t win a lot of open-field foot races, but Keys could develop into a go-to option if utilized in the slot against zone coverages or on the outside for deep balls. — Luginbill
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 11
School/Hometown: Reidsville/Reidsville, North Carolina
Committed to: Oregon Ducks
Background: Harrison kept a recruiting profile after he committed to Oregon over Tennessee, North Carolina, Miami, Penn State and Florida State before officially shutting down his recruitment in March.
A two-sport star who is committed to play basketball with the Ducks, Harrison remains the top-ranked member of an Oregon recruiting class that has lost four top-150 pledges since mid-February. Harrison, North Carolina’s second-ranked recruit in 2026, will be back on campus for an official visit with the Ducks in June.
Scout’s take: The tight end position played a pivotal role in Oregon fielding one of college football’s best passing attacks in 2024, with Terrance Ferguson hauling in 43 catches. While Harrison won’t arrive for another season, he’ll help the Ducks reload at that spot and could supply even greater big-play ability.
For Ferguson, the presence of Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart opened up more room to operate. Oregon’s high-level recruiting should allow Harrison to enjoy a similar situation playing alongside No. 1 wide receiver Dakorien Moore. An excellent basketball player, the 6-foot-6 Harrison has elite height, length and a massive catch radius. Much like former basketball-to-football standouts Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates and Julius Thomas, Harrison can high-point the ball and box out defenders in contested situations, giving Oregon another dangerous playmaker in the passing game. — Haubert
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: No. 13
Committed to: Oregon Ducks
Background: Initially set to announce his decision on Aug. 5, Iheanacho moved up his commitment and joined Kendre’ Harrison and safety Jett Washington as the Ducks’ third five-star pledge in 2026.
Iheanacho, the 6-foot-7, 350-pound prospect from North Bethesda, Maryland, is ESPN’s second-ranked offensive tackle in 2026. He took visits to each of Auburn, LSU, Oregon and Penn State this spring before solidifying his place as the second-ranked pledge in the Ducks’ incoming class. After losing four-star pledge Kodi Greene (No. 38 overall) and missing on Miami commit and No. 1 offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell (No. 3) this spring, Ihenacho gives coach Dan Lanning and Oregon a much-needed cornerstone on the offensive line this cycle.
Scout’s take: The five-star is a huge addition for the Ducks, literally, as Iheanacho is a massive physical presence consistently measuring in at roughly 6-foot-6 and around 350 pounds. At this past January’s Under Armour All-America game, mixed with many of the nations top juniors and seniors, Iheanacho physically stood out among that offensive line group. His large frame also comes with elite arm length and he uses it well with violent hands.
His ranking though goes beyond just physical measurables as he also possesses good flexibility and not surprisingly is a powerful player. He is listed at tackle, but during that UA All-America week he worked at left tackle and left guard and could find a home, at least initially, at guard. At that spot, his size and power can be utilized while he further refines his footwork, but in the long run, he has exhibited to the tools to develop into an NFL-caliber lineman.
The Ducks are utilizing the portal to build their O-Line for 2025 with several notable transfers added to that unit. Youth will play a role in the future though. In the 2025 class, the Ducks signed five-star OT Douglas Utu and now have Iheanacho and ESPN 300 guard, and former Cal commit, Tommy Tofi. — Haubert
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 14
School/Hometown: Mount Miguel High School/Spring Valley, California
Committed to: Texas A&M Aggies
Background: Considered among the fastest prospects in the 2026 cycle, Arrington landed as the cornerstone pledge of an increasingly deep Texas A&M recruiting class.
Arrington, a 6-foot-1 sprinter from outside of San Diego, visited Penn State, Washington, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oregon before narrowing his recruitment to the Aggies and Ducks. With a combination of height, length and speed that Texas A&M coaches have compared to the build of former All-SEC cornerback Will Lee, Arrington carries the potential to develop into a first-round caliber defensive back at the next level. If he ultimately lands with the Aggies later this year, he’ll join as the program’s highest-ranked signee under coach Mike Elko and its top addition since defensive tackle David Hicks (No. 8) in the 2023 class.
Scout’s take: Arrington brings a lot of the same traits that Jaylen Mbakwe brought to Alabama last fall. He’s a dynamic athlete who could play multiple positions but projects best on defense because of his length and elite level speed. Texas A&M is getting a smooth, fluid playmaker with excellent ball skills that should be able to find him a spot in the rotation sooner rather than later given his mature skill set and the fact he plays at a premium position that every program in America covets.
Outside of Dezz Ricks, the majority of the depth, including starters at corner, are all upperclassman. Arrington is going to have to fight and scrap to prove that he’s mature enough to make the jump because he’s more than ready from a talent perspective. — Luginbill
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 15
School/Hometown: Archbishop Hoban/Akron, Ohio
Committed to: USC Trojans
Background: ESPN’s No. 1 cornerback prospect followed five-star offensive tackle Keenyi Pepe as the second five-star pledge in Trojans coach Lincoln Riley’s star-studded 2026 class.
Hill grew up two hours northeast of Ohio State and visited the in-state Buckeyes along with Alabama, Oregon and USC earlier this spring. But no program pushed harder to land Hill than the Trojans, who secured his pledge after a second spring visit to Southern California over the last weekend of April. As things stands, Hill is the highest-ranked pledge in the nation’s deepest recruiting class and sits as the top prospect committed to an impressive USC defensive class in 2026.
Scout’s take: Hill is a total football player and very dynamic. He has grown almost two inches over the last few years, and is now 5-11, which has greatly enhanced his value on the perimeter. He’s a leaper as well allowing him to mask some height deficiencies. He plays on both sides of the ball with tremendous ball and playmaker skills. Hill also has elite speed, posting a 4.4 laser 40 and 21.3 mph max speed. He reminds us of former USC standout Adoree Jackson, another smooth and quick footed shutdown corner. He could even be an option on offense. He’s a premier player at a premium position and USC is continuing to make strides on defense. — Luginbill
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 16
School/Hometown: Legacy the School of Sports Sciences/Spring Creek, Texas
Committed to: Houston Cougars
Background: Henderson stands among the most intriguing quarterback prospects in the 2026 cycle and remains the subject of flip efforts from some of the nation’s top programs despite his long-standing pledge to Houston, situated roughly 28 miles from his home.
Committed to the Cougars since May 27, 2024, Henderson has repeatedly emphasized his intention to stick with Houston this spring. But those public rebuffs have not stopped programs such as Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon from keeping in touch in recent months, and Henderson’s recruitment certainly remains one to watch as the 2026 quarterback market plays out from now to the early signing period.
Scout’s take: It’s unclear whether Henderson pans out at quarterback or another position. His fundamentals are raw, but he’s very competitive and productive. Henderson is similar to Duke transfer quarterback Darian Mensah, who was recruited by coach Willie Fritz to Tulane before Fritz took the Houston job. Landing Henderson is a significant pickup for the Cougars, even if he’s not polished enough to make an immediate impact. He’s a developmental player who needs more consistency in the passing game and more downfield arm strength. Henderson builds toward his top-end speed as opposed to being initially explosive. He has hit 20.6 mph on tape, which is a great time for a quarterback. Henderson has a high ceiling regardless of his position. — Luginbill
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 17
School/Hometown: IMG Academy/Bradenton, Florida
Committed to: USC Trojans
Background: Originally from Long Beach California, the 6-foot-7, 325-pound offensive tackle from Florida’s IMG Academy is set for a return to Southern California as the top-ranked pledge in coach Lincoln Riley’s 2026 class at USC.
Pepe is one of four offensive tackles among 2026’s five-star prospects. He took over as the starting left tackle at IMG Academy during his junior season last fall and stiff-armed the likes of Florida, Georgia, Miami and Texas to join the Trojans’ incoming class, where he projects as a potentially foundational piece for the future on the offensive line.
Scout’s take: Now a member of the Big Ten, USC is working to strengthen its roster in the trenches. The Trojans’ 2026 class already has double-digit commitments along the offensive and defensive lines. Now, Pepe becomes the highest-ranked player in the class. There will be some turnover of the offensive line heading into the 2025 season with redshirt sophomore Elijah Paige returning at left tackle. Aaron Dunn and Alex Payne, both 2025 linemen ranked in the ESPN 300, come in with the 2025 class to provide young depth at least. Combine them with Pepe in the 2026 class, and USC has retooled its offensive line with some impactful recruits.
Coming out of IMG, Pepe is a prospect who has faced strong competition in practice and games. He gives the Trojans a big man who can play a key role early in his career much like Paige, who stepped in as a starter as a redshirt freshman last season. Pepe is a massive presence at roughly 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds with excellent arm length. He is more than just a big body as he is also light on his feet for his size and has good flexibility. He can continue to work on and be more consistent in some technical areas but demonstrated as a junior at the Under Armour All-America game that he is competitive, wants to learn and get better and can match up and battle against elite edge rushers. Pepe has the tools to be a starter and anchor the Trojans OL and could end up being a nice replacement for Paige at left tackle in the future. — Haubert
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 18
School/Hometown: Sierra Canyon High School/Chatsworth, California
Committed to: Texas Longhorns
Background: Briefly committed to Oregon in May, Wesley found a new home when he committed to the Longhorns on June 22 shortly after wrapping an official visit with the program. Wesley, a 6-foot-5, 250-pound pass rusher from Chatsworth, California, entered the ESPN 300 as a five-star prospect and the nation’s No. 3 defensive end upon reclassifying from the 2027 cycle in March. He made unofficial visits to Ohio State, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M and USC this spring before scheduling officials with Oregon and Texas in June. Upon his commitment, he joined five-star Longhorns quarterback Dia Bell (No. 6 overall) commit as Texas’ second five-star pledge in 2026.
Scout’s take: Wesley has the most impact potential of any defensive line prospect coming out of the Southern California area since Kayvon Thibodeaux in 2019. He will join a talented D-line group in Texas’ 2026 class. Headed to the SEC, he reminds us of a former disruptive defender in that conference — former Ole Miss standout Robert Nkemdiche.
Wesley has more ideal length but is a well put-together prospect with a nice blend of height and bulk. He can bring versatility in how he’s used, with the ability to play on the edge and also produce inside and exploit favorable matchups with his blend of power and quickness.
He reclassified from 2027 class to 2026 and when you see him in-person, it is clear he is able physically to make that jump and be ready to move onto college. He could be a quick contributor as well. He can continue to further improve flexibility, but he is an explosive defender with active and heavy hands who can attack with speed and power as a pass rusher and be able to set the edge.
With national championship aspirations, the Longhorns turned to the transfer portal to restock their defensive line for 2025, but the future of this unit will be driven by youth with players like Wesley.
His arrival is set to overlap with current standout edge defender Colin Simmons, whose presence could help Wesley ease into a role while still contributing and having an impact like Simmons did as a freshman in 2024. He could also pair nicely with 2025 signee five-star Justus Terry, who is in a similar mold to Wesley and the two could form a formidable pair for a defensive line unit that is adding the pieces to become one of the most talented in all of college football over the next few years. — Haubert
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: No. 20
Committed to: Texas Tech Red Raiders
Background: The Red Raiders’ monster offseason of recruiting/transfer portal additions continued on July 4th when Ojo, ESPN’s No. 4 offensive tackle prospects, announced his pledge to Texas Tech.
After naming Florida, Michigan, Ohio State and Texas as his finalists, Ojo came back around on coach Joey McGuire and the Red Raiders. The 6-foot-7, 285-pounder did take an official visit to Lubbock in April, and Ojo will mark Texas Tech’s highest-ranked all-time signee if he signs with the program later this year. Of note, Ojo is also set to join the Red Raiders on a fully guaranteed three-year, $5.1 million dollar revenue contract, believed to be one of the largest guaranteed deals in college football history.
Scout’s take: Of the four offensive tackles ranked within the five-star range, Ojo is the least likely to be a plug-and-play candidate when he steps onto campus. He is ranked highly because he has excellent raw tools and arguably the highest ceiling for development.
He has elite length, consistently measuring in at 6-foot-6 with over an 80-inch wingspan and has shown he can use that length to his advantage. He is also a big man that has tested well and shows good flexibility. However, he is lean — at least 30 pounds lighter than the rest of the five-star tackles and needs to pack on more mass once he gets into the Red Raiders’ strength program. He can bend but needs to develop his footwork and be more consistent with his pad level and add the size to help counter power rushers.
Joey McGuire created a buzz when he signed in-state five-star receiver Micah Hudson in 2024, and, while that big signing has not met expectations, Hudson is back in the program and there is time and a wealth of ability to utilize. McGuire now has done it again by landing another five-star prospect from within the state in Ojo. While it might take time for Ojo’s impact to be felt, it is still a statement win on the recruiting trail. On the field, Ojo won’t face the same immediate expectations that Hudson arrived with and that is good for Ojo and his development.
The Red Raiders have worked the transfer portal well and their tackle spots will likely be manned by transfers backed up by a deep pool of freshmen within that unit. A larger spotlight will shine of Ojo at Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders still look likely to be in a position to give him some time to grow before needing to push him into action. If he develops, Ojo has the tools to be an all-conference, NFL-caliber tackle and anchor on the offensive line. — Haubert
2026 ESPN 300 ranking: No. 23
Committed to: Oregon Ducks
Background: ESPN’s No. 1 safety in the 2026 class, Washington committed to the Ducks over Alabama and USC on June 19, landing as the top-ranked defender in the program’s 2026 class.
Washington is the nephew of the late Los Angeles Lakers legend Kobe Bryant and a two-sport star at Las Vegas powerhouse Bishop Gorman High School. He recorded 38 tackles and five interceptions during his junior season last fall before leading Bishop Gorman’s basketball program to its second consecutive Nevada Class 5A state basketball title earlier this year.
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Bradford Doolittle
Welcome to the middle of the 2025 MLB season. We’ve already passed the natural halfway point (1,215 games) and are nearing the symbolic version of midseason (the All-Star break). Either way, we’ve seen more regular-season baseball in 2025 than we’ll get the rest of the way.
With that in mind, let’s wade into this month’s Stock Watch by taking a retrospective spin around the majors. As usual, we’ll slot teams according to the current competitive hierarchy and see how the picture has changed since we last convened. In addition, we’ll note the dominant storyline that has emerged for each club and hand out first-half MVP awards for all 30 teams.
Should we name those awards? The Stockies? No? OK, fine. Let’s just get to it.
Win average: 101.4 (Last month: 97.9, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 99.7% (Last: 97.2%)
Champions: 24.0% (Last: 16.2%)
First-half storyline: The Dodgers spent the first few months of the season proving the adage that you can’t have too much pitching. A team with an overstuffed pitching depth chart entering the spring has not just endured an avalanche of injuries to the staff, but many of those who have pitched have underachieved. And yet, because the offense has beaten its projection by nearly 100 park-neutral runs per 162 games, the Dodgers are doing just fine, thank you. And the worst of the injury spate has to be behind them at this point. Right?
First-half MVP: Shohei Ohtani (145 AXE, 1st on Dodgers, 3rd in MLB). Ohtani’s OPS is over 1.000 for the third season in a row. He’s on pace to top his career-high 54 homers from last season and score more than 150 runs. He has recently returned to the mound but looks fantastic. Just wait until we see this two-way act on an October stage.
Win average: 97.9 (Last: 99.6, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.8% (Last: 99.3%)
Champions: 14.4% (Last: 15.6%)
First-half storyline: It’s the year of the Tiger. Detroit has broken out in a stunning way, and it’s thrilling to watch. If the season ended today, the Tigers’ Pythagorean winning percentage would be one of the five best in franchise history, behind only historic teams from 1909 (Ty Cobb), 1934-35 (Hank Greenberg) and 1968 (Denny McLain). It would be ahead of 1984 (Kirk Gibson). Yes, it’s that kind of season for the Tigers.
First-half MVP: Tarik Skubal (138 AXE, 1st on Tigers, 6th in MLB). Skubal has gone to a place that few pitchers reach. He’s in the top four of the AL in wins (1st), ERA (4th) and strikeouts (2nd). Given his trajectory, it’s possible Skubal will win his second straight pitching Triple Crown. The only pitchers to do that in back-to-back seasons: Grover Alexander (1915-16), Lefty Grove (1930-31) and Sandy Koufax (1965-66).
Win average: 96.1 (Last: 97.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 97.2% (Last: 96.7%)
Champions: 12.6% (Last: 12.3%)
First-half storyline: An offensive explosion. The Cubs’ offense figured to be better after the offseason acquisition of Kyle Tucker. Tucker has been as advertised, but Chicago has gotten production up and down the lineup and is on pace to beat its park-neutral run forecast by 102 runs. The Cubs’ 121 team OPS+ so far is their best since — hold on to your hat — 1884.
First-half MVP: (tie) Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong (139 AXE, 1st and 2nd on Cubs, 4th and 5th in MLB). Tucker has a minuscule AXE edge when you go into decimals, but it’s fitting that these dynamic outfielders are co-MVPs when we round off. Again, it has been more than these two. The Cubs’ total of seven players with a 110 AXE or better is tied for second in the majors. Six of them are hitters.
Win average: 94.7 (Last: 89.5, 6th)
In the playoffs: 98.5% (Last: 83.4%)
Champions: 8.9% (Last: 4.2%)
First-half storyline: The window is open. Those (yes, me) who were heralding the imminent demise of the Astros’ dynasty now look like Cassandras. Despite the loss of Kyle Tucker, an injury-riddled half for Yordan Alvarez, a so-so start for Jose Altuve, lackluster production from key signee Christian Walker and the loss of the orange juice theme of its ballpark, Houston once again sits in the catbird seat of the AL West. The pitching — Hunter Brown and the game’s best bullpen — is the main reason, but the Tucker trade (getting Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith from the Cubs) has worked out swimmingly.
First-half MVP: Jeremy Pena (137 AXE, 1st on Astros, 8th in MLB). Pena recently hit the injured list because of a fractured rib. Given the way Houston has responded to adversity to date, the Astros probably won’t lose a game while he’s out. That’s nothing against Pena, who, in his age-27 season, has been baseball’s best shortstop this season.
Win average: 93.5 (Last: 88.6, 8th)
In the playoffs: 93.8% (Last: 65.0%)
Champions: 7.6% (Last: 3.0%)
First-half storyline: They are up in arms in Philadelphia. According to AXE, three of the top six NL starters and four of the top 11 are members of Philadelphia’s rotation … and no one in that quartet is named Aaron Nola. Zack Wheeler, co-front-runner for NL Cy Young with Paul Skenes, leads the way, but Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo have been excellent. Mick Abel and Taijuan Walker have chipped in. If Nola can get healthy and productive, and if Andrew Painter is anything close to advertised, the Phillies will feature baseball’s best and deepest rotation.
First-half MVP: Zack Wheeler (138 AXE, 1st on Phillies, 7th in MLB). At 35, Wheeler has flashed career-best levels in ERA+, FIP, WHIP and SO/9. If Wheeler doesn’t land his first Cy Young Award, it will be because someone like Skenes takes it from him, not because he doesn’t earn it.
Win average: 92.4 (Last: 97.3, 5th)
In the playoffs: 95.8% (Last: 98.0%)
Champions: 12.8% (Last: 18.6%)
First-half storyline: Improv time in the Bronx. The Yankees’ run profile is almost exactly on target with the preseason projection, yet this season has not followed the script. The pitching has mostly held up despite Gerrit Cole‘s season-ending injury and Devin Williams‘ mysterious inconsistencies. The hitting has found its level around Aaron Judge despite Juan Soto‘s departure and that Giancarlo Stanton‘s first homer didn’t happen until July 2. Yet, as things began to ebb in June, the outcome of this Yankees story is very hard to foresee now.
First-half MVP: Aaron Judge (159 AXE, 1st on Yankees, 1st in MLB). Despite a temporary recent downtick that now seems to be over, Judge is hitting .363/.470/.735 and is on pace for 12 WAR while playing every Yankees game so far. Don’t take this guy for granted, baseball fans — even those of you who don’t like the Yankees — because this is incredibly special.
Win average: 89.4 (Last: 98.2, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 75.7% (Last: 97.7%)
Champions: 3.2% (Last: 13.5%)
First-half storyline: Peaked too soon? The Mets got off to a roaring start but slumped miserably over the second half of June. Through June 12, New York was 45-24 and owned baseball’s best ERA, mostly thanks to an MLB-low 2.79 mark from the rotation. New York dropped 14 of 18 after that while posting the worst rotation ERA (5.93), bullpen ERA (6.53) and, of course, overall ERA (6.24) during that span. Injuries have played a big part in the plunge, but a team built on depth — which the Mets are — should hold up better than this. July is a really big month for this team.
First-half MVP: Pete Alonso (129 AXE, 1st on Mets, 18th in MLB). It’s a good thing the Mets paid Alonso during the winter. They’ve gotten the hottest version of the Polar Bear yet, one who suddenly discovered the joys of the line drive. Still, that Alonso lands in this slot rather than Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor (both 126 AXE) is a bit of an upset and, perhaps, an omen of happy regression from here.
Win average: 88.2 (Last: 85.6, 12th)
In the playoffs: 82.4% (Last: 56.9%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 2.0%)
First-half storyline: Major offense in a minor venue. The Rays dropped to a season-low five games under .500 on May 20 and proceeded to win 27 of 40 behind a surging offense. The Rays scored 20 more runs than any other team during the spree, as they joined division rival Toronto in bearing down on the Yankees for the AL East lead. As usual, the Rays are doing it with a roster of players casual fans might be pressed to identify. Tampa Bay might be playing in a minor league venue, but the Rays’ way continues to flourish in the majors.
First-half MVP: Jonathan Aranda (123 AXE, 1st on Rays, 42nd in MLB). Well, something clicked for Aranda, a 27-year-old first baseman who entered 2025 as a career .222 hitter. He has tacked on nearly 100 points to that mark this season with excellent secondary skills. His 123 AXE is tops among AL primary first basemen, including All-Star starter Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win average: 87.5 (Last: 84.8, 13th)
In the playoffs: 61.7% (Last: 34.5%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 0.9%)
First-half storyline: More than enough good. No, that’s not bad syntax, it’s how the 2025 Brewers are built. Yet, Milwaukee is in the thick of postseason contention and it’s not because of any star-level breakouts, not even from super-talented Jackson Chourio. Instead, the Brewers have 18 players in the 100-to-119 AXE range, second most in baseball behind St. Louis. No greatness, just lots of goodness.
First-half MVP: Brice Turang (119 AXE, 1st on Brewers, 65th in MLB). Turang is again flashing Gold Glove defense at second base and stealing bags when he gets on base, which he has been doing more than ever. His OBP is fueled by a .288 batting average, which, in turn, is fueled by a .363 BABIP. Fluke? There might be some regression in store, but the improvements are real. Turang’s line drive rate is 3% better than the league average, and his hard-hit rate has jumped by 16.3% over last season. Turang has tacked on 4.6 mph to his 2024 average exit velocity.
Win average: 86.9 (Last: 84.3, 15th)
In the playoffs: 72.7% (Last: 46.2%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 1.0%)
First-half storyline: Staying afloat. The Blue Jays are even in the AL East standings with the Yankees shortly after July began despite the run differential of a middle-of-the-pack team. The Jays have gotten little from key signee Anthony Santander. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been very good but not great. Same for Bo Bichette. The key high-leverage relievers (Jeff Hoffman and Chad Green) have been coughing up too many homers. And yet, here the Jays are … and some of these problems might regress in the right direction. Or maybe the run differential is more of who the Jays are than the record. This is why we play 162-game seasons, to sort out stuff like this.
First-half MVP: Ernie Clement (119 AXE, 2nd on Blue Jays, 63rd in MLB). Guerrero leads the Jays in AXE (121), but we’re going to shine a light on the surprising Clement. Not that this is a race we track, but he has to be the front-runner for the AL Gold Glove at the utility player position. At the plate, he has made the most of his high-contact style. The defense, in particular, underscores a big factor in Toronto’s success: MLB-best defensive metrics.
Win average: 85.6 (Last: 84.5, 14th)
In the playoffs: 66.5% (Last: 51.1%)
Champions: 2.4% (Last: 1.9%)
First-half storyline: Rotation injuries. The Mariners have mostly spread out their injuries, but their core-five starting rotation has not been whole this season. Given that knowledge at the beginning of the season, you would not expect Seattle to be where it is, which is in position to land a wild-card slot if the season ended now. And that rotation has a good chance of getting whole as the season progresses.
First-half MVP: Cal Raleigh (149 AXE, 1st on Mariners, 2nd in MLB). Entering the season, Raleigh had a good case to be considered baseball’s best catcher. And, sure, he has hit a lot of homers the past couple of years. But could anyone have envisioned this? This is more than a breakout. This is a player on pace to shatter Mickey Mantle’s record for single-season homers by a switch-hitter (54 in 1961). And he’s a Gold Glove catcher.
Win average: 85.6 (Last: 88.4, 9th)
In the playoffs: 41.3% (Last: 62.0%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 1.9%)
First-half storyline: Covering the holes. Entering the season, the Padres figured to have some glaring lineup holes, and that has been the case. But San Diego has stayed in contention behind the star power of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, and the work of a deep and dominant bullpen. As for those holes? We’ve got a month until the trade deadline.
First-half MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr. (131 AXE, 1st on Padres, 15th in MLB). Post-suspension Tatis still operates at a lower level than pre-suspension Tatis. Before missing the 2022 season, Tatis had a 160 OPS+ and averaged 8 bWAR per 162 games. Since coming back, he’s at 118 OPS and 5.7 bWAR per 162 games. But Tatis is still really good, and always has that ability to be great stashed in his hip pocket.
Win average: 85.5 (Last: 85.7, 11th)
In the playoffs: 43.2% (Last: 42.1%)
Champions: 1.0% (Last: 1.1%)
First-half storyline: One fast transition. In retrospect, we might have overreacted to the Cardinals’ offseason rhetoric about 2025 being about positioning for the front office transfer of power to Chaim Bloom. The Cardinals took a passive approach to player acquisition and caught plenty of heat for it. They also removed obstacles in front of a number of their in-house talents, and that has paid off in a big way so far this season.
First-half MVP: Sonny Gray (118 AXE, 1st on Cardinals, 76th in MLB). Like Milwaukee, the Cardinals have succeeded thanks to a depth of solid performances rather than any breakouts. Some of those solid performers are key to St. Louis’ future: Matthew Liberatore, Victor Scott II, Masyn Winn. But the veteran Gray, who might have been dealt if not for his contract’s no-trade clause, has led the way.
Win average: 84.4 (Last: 89.1, 7th)
In the playoffs: 35.5% (Last: 67.0%)
Champions: 1.2% (Last: 2.4%)
First-half storyline: Buster’s breakout followed by a bust-out? Under first-time exec Buster Posey, the Giants exploded out of the gate. Then, they bolstered a lineup light on power with the season’s biggest trade to date, bringing in the suddenly positionally flexible Rafael Devers. Yet, the Giants have since slumped, winning just five of Devers’ first 10 appearances with the team. Where that leaves Posey and the Giants is unclear, but it’s nothing a Devers power spree and a few wins wouldn’t fix.
First-half MVP: Logan Webb (126 AXE, 1st on Giants, 26th in MLB). Webb was already established as the closest thing to a durable, top-of-the-rotation starter as we can hope to get in today’s game. This season, he has amped up the run prevention as well, posting a career-high and NL-best 2.32 FIP while again leading the circuit in innings. Alas, on the heels of two straight top-10 Cy Young finishes, as of now, it looks like Webb will have to get even stingier if he is to overtake Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler in the awards race.
Win average: 82.5 (Last: 79.0, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 19.4% (Last: 8.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.2%)
First-half storyline: Rambling rotation. The Reds’ game score winning percentage (.612) is the best in the National League and second overall behind the Yankees. This has happened despite Hunter Greene‘s injury and tepid debuts by exciting prospects Chase Petty and Chase Burns. Andrew Abbott has been as hot as any pitcher in baseball, and the trio of Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Nick Martinez has been consistently productive. This has a chance to be a very exciting group down the stretch.
First-half MVP: Elly De La Cruz (127 AXE, 1st on Reds, 25th in MLB). De La Cruz is on pace for 34 homers and 41 steals while soaring past 100 runs and 100 RBIs. His OPS+ has risen to 125 on the strength of improving strikeout rates. It kind of feels like he can do more, too. But that might always be the case for De La Cruz, no matter what his numbers look like, simply because he’s such a marvel to watch on the field.
Win average: 82.4 (Last: 81.2, 18th)
In the playoffs: 20.9% (Last: 16.1%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.4%)
First-half storyline: Not what we signed up for. The D-backs appeared positioned to possibly challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, thanks largely to a stacked starting rotation bolstered by the high-dollar signing of Corbin Burnes. Burnes’ season ended after 11 starts, while Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez are on the wrong side of 5.00 ERAs. The bullpen, weakened by injuries to A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez, has been even worse. Too often, Arizona has had to outscore the opposition.
First-half MVP: Eugenio Suarez (124 AXE, 3rd on Diamondbacks, 37th in MLB). Suarez is a hair behind Corbin Carroll (126) and Ketel Marte (125) on the AXE leaderboard, but his potent power bat has perhaps been more crucial to Arizona’s ability to hang around .500. Carroll and Marte have given the Snakes about what they expected — which is considerable — but Suarez has outstripped his projection and helped to shore up shortfalls elsewhere on the roster. From 2021 to 2024, Suarez averaged 2.4 bWAR per season; this year, he’s already at 2.5.
Win average: 81.1 (Last: 79.6, 21st)
In the playoffs: 27.3% (Last: 18.4%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.3%)
First-half storyline: Complete lack of an attack. Two years after riding a dynamic offense to a championship, the Rangers have morphed into an all-pitch, no-hit team despite a lineup with many of the same players. And the positions that have turned over have tended to go to promising prospects such as Josh Jung (recently demoted), Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. In 2023, the Rangers’ 4.77 home-scoring average ranked sixth in the majors. This season, their 3.76 mark ranks 27th.
First-half MVP: Jacob deGrom (128 AXE, 1st on Rangers, 20th in MLB). On the bright side, deGrom is back and he’s still very much Jacob deGrom … and seemingly getting better with each outing. In general, the rotation has been a bright spot for Texas, whose top three performers by AXE are deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle.
Win average: 80.0 (Last: 79.8, 20th)
In the playoffs: 11.2% (Last: 12.6%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)
First-half storyline: What happened? Last season, the Braves figured prominently into our preseason coverage when we wondered whether it was they or the Dodgers who would emerge as baseball’s power team. Once again, the forecasts were high on Atlanta’s chance to have a bounce-back season and return to the top of a competitive NL East. A couple of days ago, the Braves slipped behind the Marlins in the standings. When you look at an IL that includes Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach, it’s a dispiriting season in Cobb County.
First-half MVP: Matt Olson (125 AXE, 1st on Braves, 34th in MLB). Olson hasn’t produced at the level he flashed in 2023, when he mashed 54 homers and put up 7.5 bWAR. But he has produced and he has also been there, which is more than you can say about most of Atlanta’s other key players. Olson still hasn’t missed a game since joining the Braves as Freddie Freeman‘s replacement in 2022.
Win average: 79.8 (Last: 80.0, 19th)
In the playoffs: 17.8% (Last: 20.3%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 0.5%)
First-half storyline: It’s not about who’s here, but who is not. When you look at the roster of the 2018 champion Red Sox and how many of the key players are still star-level players for other teams, this is going to cast a pall over Fenway Park until a new group emerges to win at a high level. Any hopes of that cloud lifting because of the passage of time were dashed when Boston traded Rafael Devers.
First-half MVP: Garrett Crochet (134 AXE, 1st on Red Sox, 11th in MLB). Crochet pitched this well last season for the White Sox, his first full season as a big league starting pitcher. But it wasn’t quite a full season because Chicago tamped down his usage in advance of dealing him for maximum return. Trading for Crochet for a valuable combination of prospects was a bit of a leap of faith by Craig Breslow. Well, you can quibble with a lot of things that have happened in Boston, but so far, the Crochet trade is not one of them.
Win average: 79.7 (Last: 87.2, 10th)
In the playoffs: 18.0% (Last: 68.8%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 2.9%)
First-half storyline: Close, but no cigar. The Twins are another team whose park-neutral runs and runs allowed paces are on track to meet forecasts. Their record, however, is not. Why? Look no further than the Twins’ 8-15 record in one-run games. An optimist would suggest that this should even out. The problem is that it’s probably already too late for the Twins in the division race, and they are but one of a legion of teams in the AL’s middle wondering if they are really playoff contenders.
First-half MVP: Byron Buxton (130 AXE, 1st on Twins, 16th in MLB). Buxton is on pace to play in 130 games. That might not sound too impressive, but if he were to get there, it would be the most games he has played in since 2017. A healthy (or mostly healthy) Buxton is something to behold. He has already topped his 2024 totals in homers and steals and is close in bWAR, even though he has appeared in only 69 games. (He played in 102 last season.) Let us all take a moment to knock on wood.
Win average: 77.3 (Last: 81.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 8.5% (Last: 28.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
First-half storyline: Could really use Josh Naylor. The Guardians’ position player roster this season is dominated by below-replacement performances. You can understand the desire to open things up for power prospect Kyle Manzardo, who has been up and down. But Naylor was a foundational producer for a team that was a couple of wins shy of the World Series in 2024. The lineup needed him a lot more than the rotation needed Slade Cecconi, who has been fine over eight starts. You can’t help but wonder if Cleveland, owner of baseball’s oldest title drought, will ever stop pushing things down the line.
First-half MVP: Jose Ramirez (128 AXE, 1st on Guardians, 24th in MLB). Who else? Ramirez is on target to do what he does every year, across the board. His isolated power is down a touch, but Ramirez remains more than capable of going on a binge to clear that up. This is another season to boost Ramirez’s future Hall of Fame case.
Win average: 76.3 (Last: 73.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 6.2% (Last: 2.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Bittersweet surprise. The Angels are a mild surprise because they appeared, at various junctures, like a team about to slide back into the basement. But the 2025 Angels have been fairly resilient despite another Mike Trout injury and lack of superstar production, Ron Washington’s season-ending health issue and widespread bullpen woes, aside from closer Kenley Jansen. It’s to their credit that they’ve stayed close to .500, and there have been some positive developments on the roster. That doesn’t make them contenders.
First-half MVP: Yusei Kikuchi (117 AXE, 1st on Angels, 80th in MLB). The Angels’ rotation has been solid and a big reason the team has stayed competitive. The addition of Kikuchi has been the biggest upgrade. The 34-year-old lefty has mostly retained the gains he made after being traded from Toronto to Houston last season, save for an uptick in walks. He’s not an ace, but he has given the Halos a consistent presence in a rotation that, over the years, has lacked stability.
Win average: 76.2 (Last: 81.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 5.9% (Last: 25.7%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.5%)
First-half storyline: Oh no, there’s no O. The Royals have been an above-average team in most areas of what helps a team win: defense, baserunning, starting rotation and bullpen. It has all been undermined by wretched hitting. Kansas City has averaged 3.77 runs per game on the road, ranking 25th. That’s bad! But it looks explosive compared with what the Royals have done at the K: 2.84 runs per game. That’s not only last in the majors, but it’s not even close to the second-worst mark (3.58 by Cleveland). If you watch the Royals regularly, hopefully you’ve been wearing a hat because otherwise watching this team hit has likely caused you to pull out all your hair.
First-half MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (134 AXE, 1st on Royals, 12th in MLB). Witt has been terrific. He hasn’t been as terrific as he was in 2024, and somehow, he finished behind Jacob Wilson of the A’s in the All-Star voting. Witt is perhaps a victim of the standards he set in 2024. Witt is still on pace for 56 doubles, 43 steals and more than 7 bWAR. It’s a “down” season most players can only dream of, and it’s certainly not Witt’s fault the Royals’ offense has been so bad.
Win average: 71.8 (Last: 67.2, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.3% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Evil rumors. Low-level buzz that maybe the Pirates should look to trade Paul Skenes didn’t come from the team, so you don’t want to bash Pittsburgh for that. But you kind of do because such suggestions should not be possible. They are only because it feels so unlikely that the Pirates will invest in building a contender around Skenes. But again: If you trade this guy during his second season, what are you building for? Anyway, it hasn’t happened. Skenes has been great; the team has not.
First-half MVP: Paul Skenes (137 AXE, 1st on Pirates, 9th in MLB). Skenes is 41 starts into his career, and his ERA remains under two: 1.99, over 244 innings. His ERA+ is 213. It’s the best ever given a minimum career total of 41 starts. Sure, Skenes might hit rough patches and the number would go up. But he’s got a lot of room for error: second best is Kodai Senga (160 over 43 starts) and third is Jacob deGrom (157 over 235 starts).
Win average: 71.1 (Last: 69.4, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.7% (Last: 0.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Thud. Our last preseason Stock Watch pegged the Orioles at 88 wins with a 65% shot at returning to the postseason. That outlook has changed.
First-half MVP: Gunnar Henderson (119 AXE, 1st on Orioles, 70th in MLB). That Henderson would top the Orioles’ AXE leaderboard is no surprise. That he would do so with a 119 mark certainly is — last season, he finished at an MVP-like 150. Henderson has trended upward after a bad April, and there’s nothing really to worry about. Still, his step back is emblematic of Baltimore’s mystifyingly lost season.
Win average: 69.7 (Last: 62.4, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Bobbing back to the surface. There certainly was no particular reason to think the Marlins would be interesting this season, beyond what might possibly happen around the trade deadline with getting-better-fast starter Sandy Alcantara. Give the Fish and first-year manager Clayton McCullough credit, though, because the Marlins enter our July Stock Watch as one of baseball’s hottest teams. In fact, if you go to windows of “past 50 games,” Miami has split those games, better than division mates Atlanta and Washington, a game worse than the Mets and just four behind the Phillies. At the very least, you can say that despite a bad start and zero expectations, Miami has not thrown in the towel.
First-half MVP: Kyle Stowers (114 AXE, 2nd on Marlins, 108th in MLB). Stowers is behind Otto Lopez (116 AXE) for the Marlins, but we’ll give him a nod for his huge strides at the plate. The former Orioles prospect entered the season with a career slash line of .208/.268/.332 over 117 games. This season, he’s at .286/.360/.520 in 80 games, upping his homer total from six to 21 and more than doubling his RBI count. He’s not a star, but he has been a key part of a team that has been kind of fun to watch lately.
Win average: 68.3 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: How long is this going to take? If you zero in on the player level, there is plenty on the Nationals’ roster you can point to as a positive sign: James Wood‘s ascension, the play of CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore, the presence of touted prospects Dylan Crews and Brady House. The bottom line is that a team that hasn’t sniffed .500 since winning the 2019 championship has a winning percentage worse than what it posted in each of the past two seasons. The Nationals need to make a leap, sooner rather than later.
First-half MVP: James Wood (135 AXE, 1st on Nationals, 10th in MLB). Wood is the real deal, a hyped prospect who manifested his ability as soon as he hit the majors. He’s 165 games in at this point and owns a 144 OPS+, 30 homers, 104 RBIs and 26 steals. His power is somehow both explosive and effortless, and his plate discipline is outstanding for such a young slugger. It should only get better from here.
Win average: 65.9 (Last: 64.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Is it the park or the pitcher? The Athletics teased us with becoming an exciting sleeper wild-card contender. Then they lapsed into a horrifying slump, a 3-24 disaster during which the staff ERA was 7.79. That would be bad in slow-pitch softball. So much for contention. The Athletics have bounced back to an extent, but their season ERA is 5.67, ahead of only the Rockies. And while Sacramento has not been a hospitable place for the pitchers, the A’s can take solace in the fact that their road ERA is also well over five. It’s just not a good pitching staff.
First-half MVP: Jacob Wilson (123 AXE, 1st on Athletics, 44th in MLB). Wilson has fallen off after an exhilarating start that had his batting average at .372 through June 8. But he’s still a gas to watch, and apparently a lot of people have because Wilson will start at shortstop for the AL in the All-Star Game. As good as Wilson has been at the plate so far in the majors, his defensive metrics have been well in the red. Which kind of makes him the bizarro version of his father, Jack.
Win average: 56.2 (Last: 58.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Roster turnover. GM Chris Getz has been a transaction lover as a lead exec, and after the pain of the initial tear-down period, things are starting to feel downright coherent. Some of the prospects have played well in the majors, such as Chase Meidroth and Kyle Teel. The starting rotation has become above average, and that position group has a gaggle of high-upside prospects on the way. The White Sox still lose a lot of games, and the bullpen saves leader is a three-way tie with two. But things have grown considerably less dim than they were at this time last year. Granted, that’s a low bar, but it could be worse.
First-half MVP: Adrian Houser (112 AXE, 1st on White Sox, 132nd in MLB). Houser is our one first-half MVP who didn’t start the season with his team. But he has put up a 1.90 ERA over seven starts after being released by Texas in May. In doing so, he has become someone who might generate interest at the trade deadline. In that way, he’s an avatar for what the White Sox’s modus operandi is at this point: talent accumulation, in every way you can do it.
Win average: 41.8 (Last: 40.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Historic ineptitude. We wish we could put it nicer than that, but the Rockies are on pace to win 36 games and post a run differential of minus-422. And this isn’t a team following any kind of obvious rebuilding scheme, beyond the reality that when you’re this bad, you are by definition rebuilding. Somehow, the fact that the Rockies are still drawing well at the gate makes this even worse. It’s like a Monty Python sketch.
First-half MVP: Hunter Goodman (116 AXE, 1st on Rockies, 94th in MLB). No snark needed here — Goodman has been pretty solid and, at 25, he is young enough that maybe the gains are legit. The best part of Goodman’s first half is that his numbers are actually a lot better away from Coors: .925 road OPS; .790 at home. He’s been good.
Sports
From a Cy Young winner to an All-Star closer: One player every MLB team should trade for (or away) this July
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David Schoenfield
This year’s MLB trade deadline is going to be complicated. So many teams are currently in the playoff race — only eight are more than five games out of a wild card — that it might make for a slow deadline if all those clubs remain in contention by the end of July.
One thing is clear, however: The Arizona Diamondbacks are the fulcrum of this deadline, with the ability to make it a lot more interesting if they decide to trade away their players heading into free agency — a group that includes slugging third baseman Eugenio Suarez, starters Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, .300-hitting first baseman Josh Naylor and rejuvenated closer Shelby Miller.
While there’s always a desire for ownership and the front office to go for it and not sell out a clubhouse that has worked hard to get into the playoff chase — let alone sell out the fans who have supported the team — that’s not always possible.
This past weekend’s sweep at the hands of the Miami Marlins was a crushing three games and decreased their playoff odds by about 11 percentage points, to under 20%. Factoring into Arizona’s ultimate thought process: Corbin Burnes is done for the season following Tommy John surgery, and with Gallen continuing to struggle with a 5.45 ERA, the rotation just hasn’t been competitive. A run to the postseason feels unlikely, and a run through October even less so.
As July kicks off, we present our annual list of one player every team should trade for (or away) before the July 31 deadline. And yes, we have the Diamondbacks saying goodbye to a number of their impending free agents. Let’s start with them.
Jump to team:
American League
ATH | BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE
DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN
NYY | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH
Arizona Diamondbacks: Trade away Eugenio Suarez
In a deadline that lacks a marquee superstar — remember that the biggest names of the past two deadlines, Shohei Ohtani in 2023 and Garrett Crochet in 2024, weren’t traded anyway — Suarez might be the best player who gets traded. He’s having a huge power season, hitting .254/.324/.564 with 26 home runs, recently belting his 300th home run to cement his underrated career. His strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2018 as he has made a concerted effort to swing a little more often early in the count. It’s paid off. The Diamondbacks also have top prospect Jordan Lawlar ready in the minors to take over at third. He’s a natural shortstop, but Geraldo Perdomo has locked down that position and Lawlar’s bat should still play at third.
There are several contenders in need of an upgrade at third base, including the Cubs and Reds, but the Tigers and Mariners might have the edge in prospect depth to make the deal. The Tigers will likely make multiple moves — no doubt, adding a bullpen arm at a minimum — and while the lineup has shown surprising depth, adding Suarez to hit between lefties Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene feels like the perfect fit while allowing Zach McKinstry to return to his utility role. Suarez would also hedge against some of the possible regression from the likes of McKinstry, Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres and Spencer Torkelson, who have performed much better than last season.
The Mariners have been playing Miles Mastrobuoni and rookie Ben Williamson at third base. They chip in an occasional single but have combined for just two home runs in over 300 at-bats. With Cal Raleigh accounting for a third of the Mariners’ home runs — granted, he has hit a lot of them — Suarez would add a much-needed cleanup hitter to bat behind Raleigh. Oh, and it would rectify the big mistake president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto made when he traded Suarez to Arizona after the 2023 season in a cost-cutting move.
Kelly is the type of pitcher who used to be called a bulldog. He battles, he’s tough, and he gets the most out of an arsenal that features a pedestrian 92 mph fastball. Every team would love to have him in its rotation and, for what it’s worth, he was excellent in the 2023 postseason for Arizona when he posted a 2.25 ERA across four starts. He had a nine-run blowup in his second outing of 2025 but is pitching better than ever since then with a 2.83 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched.
The Cardinals continue to exceed expectations, and Kelly’s $7 million contract would be especially attractive to them — or any team looking for a starter at an affordable rate, for that matter. As for the need: The Cardinals rank in the middle of the pack in the majors in rotation ERA, but Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas are averaging fewer than 6.5 strikeouts per nine. (St. Louis is 26th in rotation strikeout rate.) Kelly would give them a better strikeout pitcher to go alongside Sonny Gray to head a potential playoff rotation.
The Rangers have struggled to score runs — 3.77 per game, nearly two fewer runs per game than 2023 — and while they’re looking up at the wild-card leaders, they don’t want to give up on a season where they have Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle dominating on the mound (although Mahle is out with shoulder fatigue). The Rangers rank 22nd in the majors in OPS at first base and last at DH, so even factoring in this season’s odd low-run environment at Globe Life Field, Naylor is a solution for either position, especially considering their DHs this past week included light-hitting journeyman Sam Haggerty and whichever catcher wasn’t starting.
Alcantara is signed for $17.3 million in 2026 with a $21 million team option for 2027, so even though his season stats look scary — 4-8, 6.98 ERA — the 2022 Cy Young winner still fits as a long-term option for a trade partner. More importantly, the results were at least better in June with a 4.34 ERA and .689 OPS allowed, although there are still concerns about his low swing-and-miss rate despite a fastball averaging 97.3 mph.
The Marlins don’t have to trade him, of course, and given how bad their rotation has been — only the Rockies have a worse ERA — you can argue that trading him will only open a hole they’ll have to fill for next season anyway. They just went 6-0 on their road trip, and if they play well over the next month, it becomes less likely they trade Alcantara, with the view that he’ll be a necessary part of a potentially better team in 2026. It all comes down to the prospect haul, however, and Alcantara’s recent performance might be enough to swing a deal.
The Cubs feel like the perfect match for multiple reasons. Their rotations ranks 22nd in ERA and 17th in innings, so they’re getting neither great production nor enough lengthy outings from their starters. The bullpen has held up to the stress so far with the second-best ERA in the majors, but acquiring Alcantara would add depth behind Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, the team’s only reliable starters.
A question the Cubs will have to evaluate: Alcantara has a higher-than-average ground ball rate, so will having Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner behind him help? That seems logical, but the Marlins have allowed a slightly lower average on ground balls this season than the Cubs, so it’s probably a negligible difference. The Cubs do have the better overall defense thanks to their outfield, but Alcantara has not been pitching into bad luck (indeed, his actual batting average allowed of .266 is lower than his expected average of .280).
Astros general manager Dana Brown just talked about looking for a left-handed bat to help his right-heavy lineup, but the Astros have a track record for making big pitching moves like this at the deadline: Justin Verlander in 2017, Zack Greinke in 2019 and Verlander again in 2023. The one-two punch of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez is as good as it gets, but the rotation is currently counting on unheralded rookies Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter, who have been pleasant surprises and pounding the strike zone (a combined 68 strikeouts and seven walks in 71⅓ innings) but might be over their heads right now. With Valdez heading to free agency, Alcantara would also provide insurance if they lose Valdez in the offseason.
It’s starting to look a little desperate in Kansas City. The Royals are only 4½ games out of the third wild card, but they have six teams to climb over, Jac Caglianone has failed to ignite the offense, and they went 8-17 in June. They’ll need a major Bobby Witt Jr. heater just to get close by the trade deadline. The emergence of Kris Bubic as a likely All-Star pitcher plus rookie Noah Cameron give the Royals some rotation depth to deal from, and Lugo remains an extremely attractive trade option, as he’s signed through at least next year (he owns a player option for 2027) and has a 2.74 ERA in 2025. Aside from Caglianone, the Royals’ system lacks impact hitters in the upper minors. Trading Lugo gives them the chance to help their offense for the future.
It’s hard to believe the Dodgers might need another starting pitcher after all the money they’ve invested in their rotation, but we still don’t know the seasonlong prognosis for Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, although Glasnow has at least started a rehab assignment in Triple-A. The one thing we do know is the Dodgers have a system loaded with hitting prospects that might make them the team most capable of making this trade — if they want to do it.
The Blue Jays are currently in the second wild-card spot, despite a scuffling rotation that ranks 26th in ERA. They did just get Max Scherzer back, but there’s no way of knowing what he’ll bring, plus Chris Bassitt and Scherzer will be free agents — so they’ll be looking for pitching help in the offseason anyway. Lugo’s contract is a more attractive option than gambling on a high-level free agent, even if it costs a team some good prospects.
The Guardians were 31-26 at the end of May even though they had been outscored by 18 runs, but June was a rough go, with a 9-16 record and minus-29 run differential, dropping them under .500. Clase is signed through 2028, with his salary topping out at $10 million the final two years, making him a bargain for an elite closer.
Is he still elite, though? He’s allowing a .289 average after batters hit just .154 against him in 2024, and while his location was certainly off a bit in April, he also had a lot of BABIP bad luck. His ground ball rate is significantly down from where it once was (as high as 68% in 2021, down to 45% this season), but he has still surrendered just one home run. The Cleveland bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season but it’s still deep, and Cade Smith has been their best reliever, so he’s ready to take over as the closer. Given the potential return for Clase — and hedging against the possibility that he could be on the decline — this might be the best chance for the Guardians to get a big haul for him.
When I flipped on the Phillies-Braves game Saturday, the score was 1-1 in the seventh inning with the bases loaded as Philly’s Jordan Romano pitched to Atlanta’s Sean Murphy. The broadcast flashed a graphic showing the Braves were the only team without a grand slam this season. First pitch: Boom. The Phillies need bullpen help and they need to win now. This has all the markings of a Dave Dombrowski deal.
The Orioles went 16-11 in June and are playing a little better, so there might be some hope … OK, sorry, Orioles fans. You’re still seven games out of the final wild-card spot with playoff odds hovering below 4%. A playoff run is unlikely given their rotation, and with up to 11 impending free agents after this season, if you count the three players on club options, general manager Mike Elias could make a slew of deals to add prospect depth to the organization. It’s not the way the Orioles expected the season to go, but this is the rare case where punting on the year makes sense.
O’Hearn is probably the best of the group. They got O’Hearn from the Royals and milked three excellent seasons out of him as a platoon DH/1B/RF, and with so many teams starving for offense, his ability to hit right-handers (.312/.398/.518) makes him one of the best bats available.
You could find a half-dozen teams where O’Hearn fits, but let’s go with the Giants, who rank last in the majors in OPS at first base, with an average below .200 and just five home runs. They also rank in the bottom third of the majors in OPS versus right-handed pitching, so adding O’Hearn on top of Rafael Devers would give San Francisco a second middle-of-the-order lefty bat. President of baseball operations Buster Posey has already shown his cards with the Devers deal: He’s all-in, so no time to stop now.
The Braves beat the Mets in five out of seven games in June to spark some comeback talk, but they remain eight games under .500, one of five NL teams that are more than five games out of the final wild card. There’s still time, and FanGraphs gives them 23% playoff odds, but the offense actually had its worst month of the season in June. It’s hard to wave the white flag with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider leading the rotation and Ronald Acuna Jr. red-hot since his return, but the Braves will need a huge July in order to be contenders. If they don’t get that, Ozuna is the logical trade candidate, as he heads into free agency and has a .369 OBP (although he had a miserable June with a .550 OPS and just two home runs).
The Padres have used their DH slot to give Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and others an occasional day off from the field, but it hasn’t worked, with the Padres ranking near the bottom of MLB in OPS at DH. Ozuna’s June slump is a concern, but his OBP would be the best on the team and help boost an offense that ranks in the bottom third in the NL in runs per game.
That got very Mets-like in a hurry. The Mets have gone 3-14 since June 13, which includes an embarrassing three-game sweep to the Pirates this past weekend when they were outscored 30-4. It prompted owner Steve Cohen to post, “Tough stretch, no sugarcoating it. I didn’t see it coming.” Didn’t see it coming? These are the Mets! Something always happens.
The Mets should get some of their injured starters back soon, and while the lineup has some soft spots, it doesn’t have any must-need upgrades — center field and catcher are their weakest spots, but Tyrone Taylor is an excellent defender and … well, good luck at catcher. So that leaves the bullpen, which is strong in the ninth inning with Edwin Diaz but a little shaky elsewhere, especially as manager Carlos Mendoza ran Huascar Brazoban into the ground. New York should think big here. Bautista has two more years of team control on a low salary, so Baltimore could get a lot in return — and the Mets happen to be deep in starting pitching prospects, which is exactly what the Orioles need.
Bednar is a two-time All-Star closer who struggled in 2024 (5.77 ERA) and then lost two games and blew a save in his first three outings of 2025, but he has been rolling since then with a 1.95 ERA and — most impressively — a 37.4% strikeout rate as his curveball/splitter combo are once again wipeout pitches. He’s making $5.9 million this year and is under team control for another season, but the Pirates aren’t going anywhere in the standings anytime soon and have a closer-in-waiting in Dennis Santana.
After a mediocre first month, the Rays have been as good as any team in baseball since May 1: 33-21, tied for the third-best record (just one fewer win than the Tigers and two fewer than the Astros) and with the best run differential at plus-61. Only the Dodgers have scored more runs since May 1, and while the Rays are getting a slight offensive boost from Steinbrenner Field, pitching looks like the way to go at the deadline The rotation has been homer-prone — again, related to Steinbrenner Field — but the bullpen has lacked its usual depth and ranks 23rd in win probability added. Adding Bednar — the salary shouldn’t be too steep, even for the Rays — and moving Pete Fairbanks into the setup role works.
Some people dislike going to the dentist or detest boiled eggs or loathe oatmeal raisin cookies. The Rockies? They hate to make trades. And they especially are not fans of trading homegrown players like McMahon. But it’s time. He isn’t having his best season at .219/.321/.392, numbers that look even worse when factoring in Coors Field, but he’s one of the best defensive third basemen in the game and there are some things to like in his metrics, including an 89th percentile walk rate and 83rd percentile bat speed. He’s signed through 2027 at a reasonable $16 million each of the next two seasons, given his high floor as a plus defender with 20-homer output.
The Reds should absolutely be looking to add — and third base has been a black hole all season, with Reds third basemen ranking near the bottom of the majors in OPS. They released Jeimer Candelario, even though he’s under contract for $16 million this year and another $16 million in 2026, but the ongoing roulette spin to see who starts from Santiago Espinal, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Gavin Lux isn’t a solution. The Reds also have a couple of third-base prospects in Sal Stewart and Cam Collier that they could offer in return. It’s just a matter of them absorbing more salary on top of Candelario’s sunken cost.
The Twins are another team that will need a good July to determine their trading fate. However, other than the 13-game winning streak in early May, they haven’t been that good — and they went 9-18 in June as their pitching got absolutely destroyed (worst ERA in the majors). That doesn’t bode well for the second half. Castro is heading to free agency and has value as someone who can play anywhere; he has started games at three infield positions, both outfield corners and played regularly in center field last season. His OPS+ is above average for the third straight season, so he’ll provide some solid offense as well.
OK, this wouldn’t be the most dramatic of moves for the Yankees, and they could certainly be in the mix for Eugenio Suarez. (Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been playing third of late but would slide over to second.) They don’t really have any glaring holes, at least if Marcus Stroman can plug the back of the rotation, but their offense has been gradually sliding: .829 OPS in April, .792 in May, .719 in June. Castro’s versatility is key: He could play third or he could play the outfield. With Trent Grisham and Paul Goldschmidt tailing off from their hot starts, Castro and Cody Bellinger would give manager Aaron Boone all kinds of lineup flexibility if those two continue to struggle.
The Angels are surprisingly — shockingly? — hanging around .500. They’re hitting .229 as a team with an OBP under .300 and they rank in the bottom half of the majors in rotation ERA and bullpen win probability added. In other words, they’re not especially good at anything. Yet here they are, although they’ll have to do it without manager Ron Washington, who is on medical leave the rest of the season. They could go in any direction, but rotation help probably makes the most sense. Baltimore’s Morton is a free agent after this season, and while the 41-year-old looked ready for retirement after an awful first six weeks, he has a 2.90 ERA over his past six starts.
There has been speculation that the Brewers might be willing to trade Freddy Peralta, similar to when they traded Josh Hader in 2022 when they were in the playoff race and Hader had a year-plus left of team control. That move backfired when the Brewers missed the playoffs, the only year they didn’t make it between 2018 and 2024. Trading Peralta might be an ever bigger on-field and PR disaster — and we can’t advocate trading your best pitcher. Instead, we have the Brewers adding. Given their budget, it probably won’t be a big move for a big contract, so Miller and his $1 million salary is the logical help for a bullpen that ranks in the bottom third of the majors in ERA.
Let’s see … since trading Rafael Devers, the Red Sox have gone 6-8. Maybe they won’t be better the rest of the season without him. They could look to add a starting pitcher if they think they’ll remain in contention or go crazy on top of the Devers trade and deal one of their outfielders (Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu) with fellow outfielder Roman Anthony now in the majors. Or maybe they even see what they can get for Alex Bregman, who can opt out of his contract after the season but has said he’s open to extension talks.
The less exciting route: trading Buehler, if anyone wants him. He’s 5-6 with a 6.45 ERA, after going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA last season with the Dodgers. He did have two good — albeit short — starts in the postseason for L.A., so that’s what a team would be trading for, banking on big-game Buehler delivering some clutch performances. Some team might take the chance, although the Red Sox might have to eat some of his remaining salary.
Since the first day of spring training, Luis Robert Jr.’s name has rightfully been at the top of Chicago’s potential trade list, but it’s probably time to close the door on that option. He has been even worse than last season, hitting .185/.270/.313, and just landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain. His defense metrics remain strong, so a team desperate for a center fielder might take a chance if the hammy heals quickly, but the White Sox won’t want to give him away with his trade value at rock bottom.
The better move is to trade Houser — and the sooner the better, to cash in on his hot run. He’s 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 2.2 WAR in seven starts. The 32-year-old is throwing both his curveball and changeup about twice as often as in the past, so maybe there is some real improvement going on, but his strikeout rate remains low at 18.1% and he had a 5.03 ERA in Triple-A with the Rangers before the White Sox picked him up. Most teams need pitching depth and Houser could be a serviceable back-end starter or swingman — and maybe even something better.
The Nationals have several players heading to free agency that they might look to deal, including closer Kyle Finnegan and utility man Amed Rosario, although none will bring back a huge return. Soroka might be the most enticing to other teams. He has been starting for the Nationals and his 4.70 ERA in 11 games doesn’t impress, but he ranks in the 76th percentile in strikeout rate and 79th percentile in walk rate while holding batters to a .210 average. He might be a better fit as a reliever. Last season with the White Sox he fanned 60 in 36 innings out of the bullpen, so you could see a team trading for him and making him a key part of its bullpen.
The A’s don’t really have much to deal, although there will be the prerequisite Mason Miller rumors. Luis Severino was perhaps a possibility, but he has been roughed up in four of his past six starts (.932 OPS in June with 31 runs allowed in 32⅔ innings), so his trade value has plummeted, especially considering his contract has another two years. So that leaves … Urias? He’s a journeyman at this point, one who has been playing second base regularly of late, can play some third and will slug the occasional home run. He fits best as a bench player for a contender.
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