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There are four power rankings left to go in the 2023 season, and while certain teams — such as the Braves — have cemented their position in the standings and on our list, many clubs remain in flux.

That is especially true for the four teams vying for the final wild-card spot in the National League — the Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins and Giants. They’ve continued to move around and swap places in the wild-card standings, as all four are within a couple games of each other — and all boast negative run differentials.

Which of them has the advantage — and who will secure a postseason berth?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 22 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings

Record: 90-48

Previous ranking: 1

The Braves took three of four from the Dodgers with Ronald Acuna Jr. making an MVP statement in his head-to-head matchup against Mookie Betts by homering in each of the first three games — all Atlanta victories. His home run on Saturday was a 121.2-mph blast to center field, the hardest-hit home run of 2023 and only the fourth homer of the Statcast era clocked at 120 mph. The others came from Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Acuna became the first player ever with 30 home runs and 60 stolen bases, leads the NL in runs, stolen bases and total bases and is tied for first in hits and on-base percentage. — Schoenfield


Record: 88-51

Previous ranking: 3

As the Orioles prepare for a possible — or even likely — postseason without star closer Felix Bautista, they’ve been collecting and probing different bullpen configurations. Hard-throwing lefty D.L. Hall, developed as a starter, was used in back-to-back outings and had a save opportunity against the Angels, which he failed to convert. His plus-stuff plays up in the role and his initial strikeout rates have been dominant. Alas, the command has not been.

Meanwhile, Shintaro Fujinami came out of the bullpen throwing triple digits and earned the save against the Angels after the Orioles went ahead in extra innings. Baltimore also reacquired Jorge Lopez, and while Yennier Cano is the Bautista replacement — and a good one — his ascension to the ninth inning scrambles a high-leverage picture that manager Brandon Hyde will have to sort out over the next few weeks while trying to nail down the American League East crown. It’s a challenge. — Doolittle


Record: 84-54

Previous ranking: 2

This is an issue that carries importance far beyond sports, but we’ll stick to the baseball portion for the purpose of these Power Rankings: The Dodgers probably won’t see Julio Urias again this season, in the wake of him being arrested on felony domestic violence charges Sunday night. They’ve already lost Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin for the year, and Clayton Kershaw is pitching through shoulder woes, which resulted in diminished velocity during his Tuesday start from Miami. The Dodgers are cruising toward their 10th division title in 11 years and might still reach 100 wins for the third straight season. But they have a major starting-pitching problem heading into October. And Walker Buehler won’t be stretched out enough to help much. — Gonzalez


Record: 85-55

Previous ranking: 4

Reports emerged last week that the red-hot Rays were going with Taylor Walls as their primary shortstop for the rest of the campaign, with Osleivis Basabe moving into more of a utility role. Walls has more of a big league track record than Basabe, and at the very least, Tampa Bay can count on elite defense from Walls.

Over his first 134 games as a big league shortstop, Walls posted plus-23 defensive runs saved, which is a Gold Glove trajectory. His offense lags well behind his glove, but he does have strengths. Namely, he walks (65 free passes per 162 games in his career) and steals bases (20 thefts per 162 games). Still, he’s a career sub-.200 hitter and any offense he generates will have to be viewed as gravy. Luckily, with the Rays’ offense rolling as it has, they can afford to go all-in with Walls’ glove at shortstop and with Basabe still around, they can pinch hit for Walls in a key spot. — Doolittle


Record: 80-61

Previous ranking: 6

The Astros began their crucial series at Texas by clubbing the Rangers into submission, scoring 27 runs over two games. While we’ve become accustomed to this sort of offensive outburst by the Astros over the years, this barrage was notable not just because it came in a big series against a rival, but because it happened on the road and on the heels of a home sweep at the hands of the Yankees. This continues a head-scratching, season-long trend of Houston hitting much better away from Minute Maid Park. Houston had scored nearly 100 more runs away from home, along with road-home splits of 113-78 home runs and .794-.734 OPS. That probably doesn’t mean that the Astros should angle to play on the road as much as possible in October, but it is a trend worth noting. — Doolittle


Record: 78-61

Previous ranking: 5

The 10-game road trip to New York, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay started off disastrously with series losses to the Mets and Reds. Suddenly, the pitching staff is looking fatigued. Bryan Woo‘s velocity was way down in his start against the Reds and given his large platoon splits (lefties have hammered him), the Mariners may need to consider an opener in his next game (they don’t really have any good other starting options). Woo is way past his season high in innings in either college or last year in the minors. Bryce Miller‘s strikeout rate has plummeted over the past month. Closer Andres Munoz was AL Reliever of the Month in August but has struggling in September. Justin Topa blew a 6-3 lead on Tuesday. Can the staff make it through September without collapsing? — Schoenfield


Record: 76-63

Previous ranking: 7

Nathan Eovaldi‘s return from injury was nothing short of a disaster. He lasted just 1⅓ innings Tuesday against the Astros, giving up four runs on five hits including two home runs. The formerly dominant Dane Dunning didn’t fare much better in relief as the Rangers are suddenly in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. Their pitching staff needs to right the ship after a brutal week — they ranked last in ERA over the past seven days and will need Eovaldi to lock in as soon as possible. The Blue Jays, Mariners and Red Sox all remain on their schedule — including Seattle seven times before the end of the season. Those head-to-head matchups will likely determine the Rangers’ fate in October, which seemed like a lock for most of the season. That’s no longer the case. — Rogers


Record: 77-63

Previous ranking: 10

The Blue Jays’ position group is beat up right now. Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman and Danny Jansen have all landed on the injured list, while Brandon Belt is dealing with a balky back. The timing isn’t good, but on the field Toronto has been able to tread water. Because of that and a concurrent collapse by the Rangers, the Blue Jays managed to move back into playoff position the day after Labor Day. We highlighted the boost provided by Davis Schneider last week, but the Blue Jays have gotten key production from another unsung replacement since then. This time, it’s Spencer Horwitz, a 25-year-old lefty hitting DH/first baseman. Over his first seven games, Horwitz homered, drove in four runs and posted a .961 OPS. — Doolittle


Record: 77-62

Previous ranking: 9

Brandon Woodruff appears to be all the way back and ready for October. He threw seven shutout innings Tuesday in the Brewers’ win over Pittsburgh. In five of his six starts since coming back from his injury, Woodruff has given up two or fewer runs. He has 25 strikeouts in his past three outings alone, further proof his stuff is rounding into form. His fastball velocity is already in the top 20% in the league and it’s still climbing. Milwaukee’s playoff hopes rely on him, along with Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes, as the team’s offense has been inconsistent. — Rogers


Record: 77-62

Previous ranking: 8

Trea Turner headed off on paternity leave riding a 15-game hitting streak during which he hit .358, slugged 10 home runs and scored 19 runs. Going back to that standing ovation he received in early August, Turner has hit .362/.395/.767 with 12 home runs in 28 games. That pushed his OPS+ over league average to 106 and while that’s still well below the 139 mark he posted from 2020 to 2022, he has at least rescued his season from those miserable first four months. A hot Turner heading into the postseason bodes well for another deep run for the Phillies. — Schoenfield


Record: 76-64

Previous ranking: 11

Justin Steele‘s Cy Young bid took another step forward as he pitched a gem on Labor Day, shutting out the Giants over eight innings. He’s 16-3 with a 2.55 ERA, doing it mostly with a four-seam fastball and slider. His ability to work both sides of the plate and change the eye level for opposing hitters has been nothing short of fantastic. Steele’s 2023 resume doesn’t feature the strikeout totals Spencer Strider is putting up, but he has kept the ball in the park much better. Steele leads the league in home runs per nine innings (0.7) as well as ERA+ (177). That could give him the edge over Strider and Blake Snell. — Rogers


Record: 73-67

Previous ranking: 13

Since we’ve pointed out so many times this season that the Twins have failed to put a hammerlock on an AL Central division that has been begging for someone to take control, we probably ought to highlight that the Twins now appear to have put a hammerlock on the AL Central. This has happened mostly because of an offensive outburst in two series apiece against Texas and Cleveland. Over an 11-game stretch beginning Aug. 24, the Twins averaged 6.9 runs per game, second-best in the majors during that span. Tuesday’s 8-3 win over Cleveland pushed the Twins’ lead over the Guardians to seven games, their biggest margin of the season. Minnesota finally looks like a lock for an October invite. — Doolittle


Record: 72-68

Previous ranking: 15

Boston’s tepid approach to the trade deadline has not done much to inspire a fast finish. The Red Sox have hovered around .500 with their post-deadline play as their postseason chances have collapsed from around one-in-five to about one-in-50. The pitching has been a mess even though the performance of rookie Brayan Bello has held up and Chris Sale has flashed dominance at times. James Paxton and Kutter Crawford have fallen off. And that’s just the rotation. The bullpen ERA since the deadline is one of the worst in the majors. Patience in the Red Sox’s ongoing passive approach is surely growing thin. — Doolittle


Record: 72-68

Previous ranking: 12

The D-backs have an important stretch coming up, with nine of their next 13 games coming against either the Cubs or the Giants, two teams joining them amid the crowded NL wild-card field. But the D-backs need to worry about getting right themselves. They followed a disappointing 8-16 month of July with a 12-15 August and have split their first six games of September. Since the All-Star break, they rank 21st in the majors in runs per game and 26th in ERA. That’s a pretty long stretch of time to be below average. But all that matters is the next 3½ weeks. — Gonzalez


Record: 73-69

Previous ranking: 16

The additions of Harrison Bader and Hunter Renfroe provided immediate dividends as Renfroe walked off the Cubs over the weekend. Cincinnati could have also used the pitchers who were placed on waivers, but Cleveland grabbed them instead. That left the Reds with one chance to make the postseason: by slugging their way there. But as good as their young hitters have been this season, they’ve slumped in the second half. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom five of the majors in OPS since the All-Star break. Its on-base percentage has hovered around .300 during that time frame. After playing the Mariners this week, the Reds have a light schedule the rest of the way. If the offense picks up, they still have a shot at the postseason. — Rogers


Record: 72-67

Previous ranking: 17

The Marlins looked dead in the wild-card race until they swept four games from the Nationals. The offense, which had scored just 17 runs in the previous 10 games, burst out with 31 against Washington while hitting .321 with eight home runs. Luis Arraez went 10-for-18, Bryan De La Cruz had a four-hit game, Jesus Sanchez had seven hits and Jazz Chisholm Jr. had six. They did it without Jorge Soler, who missed the entire series before returning in Tuesday’s win over the Dodgers. Of the four teams battling for the final wild-card spot, the Marlins have the toughest remaining schedule, including the upcoming road trip to Philadelphia and Milwaukee. — Schoenfield


Record: 70-70

Previous ranking: 14

Logan Webb produced another quality start against the Cubs on Monday, getting charged with three earned runs in 6⅔ innings. But the Giants’ offense didn’t produce much of anything in support of him, and so he was tagged with the loss. It was an all-too-familiar scenario. Webb has the lowest run-support average in the major leagues, and the Giants’ recent struggles on offense are costing them a prime opportunity to gain ground in a crowded wild-card field. From Aug. 5 through Monday’s game, the Giants navigated a 28-game stretch in which they slashed a paltry .219/.293/.327 as a team, accumulating only 20 home runs. — Gonzalez


Record: 70-69

Previous ranking: 19

When all is said and done, the Yankees aren’t going to get credit for much of anything based on their 2023 performance. But you can at least say this much: Those on the field as the season reached the Labor Day turn have not thrown in the towel. With the Yankees promoting a gaggle of young players for the remainder of the season, the result has been one that sometimes happens with clubs that go through an in-season teardown: The youth, energy and motivation of the replacements makes the team better. The Yankees looked dispirited a week ago but after they swept the Astros on the road and Jasson Dominguez made a strong early impression, New York’s string of .500 seasons might yet remain intact. — Doolittle


Record: 66-75

Previous ranking: 18

In the wake of Shohei Ohtani‘s torn UCL — not to mention the possibility of Julio Urias facing his second domestic violence-related suspension by the league — Snell stands as the most coveted starting pitcher in the upcoming free agent class. And he has picked a perfect time to be at his best. Snell is 12-9 with a major league-leading 2.50 ERA heading into his 29th start of the season Friday, striking out 201 batters in 155 innings. Nobody has issued more walks or served up more wild pitches than Snell, but nobody has allowed a lower opponents’ slugging percentage, either. The Padres are running out of time to make a final playoff push — especially with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish on the IL — but Snell is trending toward his second Cy Young. — Gonzalez


Record: 67-73

Previous ranking: 20

Probably needing a sweep of the three-game series against the Twins to have a chance at the AL Central title, Cleveland lost the opener 20-6. Backup catcher David Fry ended up pitching the final four innings, giving up 10 hits, 7 runs and 3 home runs. He became the first true position player to pitch four innings in a game since Jose Oquendo of the Cardinals on May 14, 1988. Tuesday didn’t go much better, as Trevor Stephan gave up five runs in the eighth inning in an 8-3 loss — dropping the Guardians seven games behind the Twins. — Schoenfield


Record: 64-76

Previous ranking: 22

Shohei Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo of CAA, addressed the media from his field-level suite at Angel Stadium on Monday afternoon, emphasizing that Ohtani plans to continue to be a two-way player. Meanwhile, Ohtani himself took a rare opportunity for outdoor batting practice and wound up tweaking his right oblique, prompting him to be a late scratch from Monday’s lineup and also sit out Tuesday’s game. Before then, Ohtani had played in every game since May 2.

But Angels manager Phil Nevin said Ohtani avoided a strain and isn’t expected to go on the IL. He will keep playing, at least until he decides the next course of action for his UCL tear. The Angels are out of contention and the AL MVP award has basically been locked up, but Ohtani doesn’t want to stop. “This guy loves the game,” Balelo said. — Gonzalez


Record: 64-75

Previous ranking: 23

The Mets called up top prospect Ronny Mauricio and he went 6-for-15 (.400) in his first four games. His first career hit Friday was a 117-mph double to right field. With Francisco Lindor entrenched at shortstop, Mauricio started at second base all four games, although manager Buck Showalter said he would use Mauricio at different positions (he also played some left field at Syracuse). Tuesday’s lineup featured rookies Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Mauricio all starting together for the first time — and they all had hits in an 11-5 victory over the Nationals. — Schoenfield


Record: 63-76

Previous ranking: 24

The Tigers placed Riley Greene on the IL because of inflammation in his elbow, an injury suffered on a highlight reel catch that, if it proves to be the last we see of Greene in 2023, is a pretty nice exclamation point on a fine second season for the 22-year-old. In almost the exact same number of plate appearances as his rookie season, he has upped his OPS+ from 97 to 116 while improving in all three slash categories. His homer rate more than doubled even as his line drive rate improved markedly. Simply put, Greene hit the ball harder more often. He still has work to do to polish off his strike zone indicators, but any doubt that may have existed about whether he is a cornerstone player for the Tigers has been erased. — Doolittle


Record: 63-77

Previous ranking: 21

CJ Abrams‘ season has sort of flown under the radar, in part because he got off to a slow start, but his power is starting to develop — he’s up to 15 home runs and 40 stolen bases (and has been caught just three times). There is still room for growth, especially in his swing decisions that lead to a high chase rate and low walk rate. He has also struggled big time against lefties, hitting just .173 with a .255 OBP, but that isn’t necessarily unusual for a young left-handed hitter (especially given his lack of experience in the minors). It looks like the bat will eventually play with continued maturity. We’ll also see if he stays at shortstop long-term. Statcast metrics aren’t a fan of his range, putting him near the bottom of all shortstops, although DRS has him above average. — Schoenfield


Record: 65-75

Previous ranking: 25

It has been a lost season for Oneil Cruz, but if he can get back onto the field for even a few games after recovering from ankle surgery, it could set him up for 2024. Cruz has been a missing element for Pittsburgh all year as his replacements haven’t exactly gone off. Pittsburgh ranks 14th in the NL in WAR at shortstop as just one of two teams with a negative rating. If healthy, the 2024 left-side pairing of Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes could be an offensive and defensive force for the Pirates. That’s the potential bright spot. Their pitching staff still needs work. — Rogers


Record: 61-78

Previous ranking: 26

The Cardinals might be playing out the string, but Jordan Walker is still getting after it. He went 12-for-19 in his last five games with four home runs. Walker has had his share of ups and downs, but his rookie numbers are going to look pretty good. He has an OPS over 1.100 since mid-August, and he’s one reason St. Louis doesn’t need a full-on rebuild. If the Cardinals focus all their efforts on the mound this offseason, there’s a chance they could be back in the playoff race in 2024. They aren’t far off from being good again, but that’s only if they address the starting staff in a major way. — Rogers


Record: 54-86

Previous ranking: 27

Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse for the White Sox, they did. A home sweep to the Tigers was bad enough but a Labor Day beatdown at the hands of the lowly Royals was really embarrassing. Manager Pedro Grifol seems to be safe, but some may question why considering the disaster this season has been. His benching of newcomer Korey Lee — after the rookie couldn’t track a popup he hit — was puzzling. It feels like Grifol wants a do-over first impression, but those only come once. Meanwhile, Jesse Scholtens‘ bid for a rotation spot in 2024 took a hit after he gave up nine hits in 3⅔ innings to Kansas City on Monday. — Rogers


Record: 51-88

Previous ranking: 28

Kris Bryant told reporters recently that he’s hopeful he’ll return from his fractured left index finger by the start of the Rockies’ homestand next week, which features matchups against his two former teams, the Cubs and Giants. The Rockies have long been out of contention, of course, and are still trending toward their first 100-loss season in franchise history. But getting back before the end of the year will no doubt be beneficial for Bryant. By Monday, he will have played in only 107 of the Rockies’ 304 games since signing a seven-year, $182 million contract in March of 2022. He’s slashing only .251/.338/.379 in 65 games this season. — Gonzalez


Record: 44-97

Previous ranking: 29

As Cole Ragans continues to roll along, Zack Greinke does not. The future Hall of Famer dropped to 1-14 with a 5.34 ERA. He hasn’t reached 80 pitches in any of his past seven starts, as manager Matt Quatraro gives him shorter and shorter hooks. Only 12 other pitchers have won just one game with at least 14 losses — and four of those did it in the 1800s. It has happened two other times this century, however, as Homer Bailey went 1-14 with the Reds in 2018 and Adam Bernero went 1-14 with the Rockies and Tigers in 2003. — Schoenfield


Record: 43-97

Previous ranking: 30

Amid a year of extreme disappointment — both on the field of play and, of course, beyond it — a rookie second baseman has provided a glimmer of hope for the team’s future, wherever it might reside. Zack Gelof, the team’s second-round pick in 2021, slashed .275/.335/.533 with 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases through his first 200 plate appearances in the major leagues. He’s the only member of the A’s with both double-digit home runs and steals, even though he has been up only since the middle of July. The sample size is still relatively small, but Gelof has shown to be a more advanced hitter than many anticipated. — Gonzalez

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No team has repeated in a quarter century. Are the Dodgers different?

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No team has repeated in a quarter century. Are the Dodgers different?

WHEN THE LOW point arrived last year, on Sept. 15 in Atlanta, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts broke character and challenged some of his players in a meeting many of them later identified as a fulcrum in their championship run.

This year, he attempted to strike a more positive tone.

It was Sept. 6. The Dodgers had just been walked off in Baltimore, immediately after being swept in Pittsburgh, and though they were still 15 games above .500, a sense of uneasiness lingered. Their division lead was slim, consistency remained elusive and spirits were noticeably down. Roberts saw an opportunity to take stock.

“He was talking to us about the importance of what was in front of us,” Dodgers infielder Miguel Rojas said in Spanish. “At that time, there were like seven, eight weeks left because we only had three weeks left in the regular season, and he wanted all of us, collectively, to think about what we were still capable of doing, and the opportunity we still had to win another championship.”

Later that night, Yoshinobu Yamamoto got within an out of no-hitting the Baltimore Orioles, then he surrendered a home run to Jackson Holliday and watched the bullpen implode after his exit, allowing three additional runs in what became the Dodgers’ most demoralizing loss of the season. The next morning, though, music blared inside Camden Yards’ visiting clubhouse. Players were upbeat, vibes were positive.

The Dodgers won behind an effective Clayton Kershaw later that afternoon, then reeled off 16 wins over their next 21 games — including back-to-back emphatic victories over the Cincinnati Reds in the first round of the playoffs.

It took a day, but Roberts’ message had seemingly landed.

“We needed some positivity,” Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez said, “to remove all of the negativity that we were feeling in that moment.”

As they approach a highly anticipated National League Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Dodgers once again look like one of the deepest, most fearsome teams in the sport.

But the journey there was arduous.

A Dodgers team many outsiders pegged as a candidate to break the regular-season-wins record of 116 ultimately won only 93, its fewest total in seven years. Defending a championship, a task no team has successfully pulled off in a quarter-century, has proven to be a lot more difficult than many Dodger players anticipated. But they’ve maintained a belief that their best selves would arrive when it mattered most. And whether it’s a product of health, focus, or because the right message hit them at the right time, they believe it’s here now.

“We’re coming together at the right time,” Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy said amid a champagne-soaked celebration Wednesday night, “and that’s all that really matters.”


BUSTER POSEY’S San Francisco Giants became the most dominant team in the first half of the 2010s, during which they captured three championships. They won every other year — on even years, famously — but could not pull off the repeat the Dodgers are chasing. To this day, Posey, now the Giants’ president of baseball operations, can’t pinpoint why.

“I wish I could,” Posey said, “because if I knew what that one thing was, I would’ve tried to correct it the second, third time through.”

Major League Baseball has not had a repeat champion since the New York Yankees won their third consecutive title in 2000, a 24-year drought that stands as the longest ever among the four major North American professional sports, according to ESPN Research. In that span, the NBA had a team win back-to-back championships on four different occasions. The NHL? Three. The NFL, whose playoff rounds all consist of one game? Two.

MLB’s drought has occurred in its wild-card era, which began in 1995 and has expanded since.

“The baseball playoffs are really difficult,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “You obviously have to be really good. You also have to have some really good fortune. The number of rounds and the fact that the very best team in the league wins around 60% of their games, the very worst team wins around 40% — now you take the upper-echelon in the playoffs, and the way baseball games can play out, good fortune is a real part of determining the outcomes.”

The Dodgers, now 11 wins shy of a second consecutive title, will hope for some of that good fortune this month. They’ve already encountered some of the pitfalls that come with winning a championship, including the one Posey experienced most vividly: the toll of playing deep into October.

“That month of postseason baseball — it’s more like two or three months of regular-season baseball, just because of the intensity of it,” Posey said.

The Dodgers played through Oct. 30 last year — and then they began this season March 18, nine days before almost everybody else, 5,500 miles away in Tokyo.

“At the time, you don’t see it,” Hernández said, “but when the next season starts, that’s when you start feeling your body not responding the way it should be. And it’s because you don’t get as much time to get ready, to prepare for next season. This one has been so hard, I got to be honest, because — we win last year, and we don’t even have the little extra time that everybody gets because we have to go to Japan. So, you have to push yourself to get ready a month early so you can be ready for those games. Those are games that count for the season. So, working hard when your body is not even close to 100%, I think that’s the reason. I think that’s why you see, after a team wins, next year you see a lot of players getting hurt.”

The Dodgers had the second-most amount of money from player salaries on the injured list this season, behind only the Yankees, the team they defeated in the World Series, according to Spotrac. The Dodgers sent an NL-leading 29 players to the IL, a list that included Freddie Freeman, who underwent offseason surgery on the injured ankle he played through last October, and several other members of their starting lineup — Will Smith, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman and Hernández.

The bullpen that carried the Dodgers through last fall might have paid the heaviest price. Several of those who played a prominent role last October — Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips — either struggled, were hurt or did not pitch. It might not have been the sole reason for the bullpen’s struggles — a combined 4.94 ERA from free agent signees Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates played just as big a role — but it certainly didn’t help.

“I don’t know if there’s any carryover thing,” Treinen said Sept. 16 after suffering his third consecutive loss. “I don’t believe in that. We just have a job, and it’s been weird.”


IN FEBRUARY, ROJAS made headlines by saying that the 2025 Dodgers could challenge the wins record and added they might win 120 games at full health. An 8-0 start — after an offseason in which the front office added Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Michael Conforto, Hyeseong Kim, Scott and Yates to what was arguably the sport’s best roster already — only ratcheted up the expectations.

The Dodgers managed a 53-32 record through the end of June — but then, they went 10-14 in July, dropped seven of their first 12 games in August and saw a seven-game lead in the National League West turn into a one-game deficit.

From July 1 to Aug. 14, the Dodgers’ offense ranked 20th in OPS and 24th in runs per game. The rotation began to round into form, but the bullpen sported the majors’ highest walk rate and put up a 1.43 WHIP in that stretch, fifth highest.

The Dodgers swept the San Diego Padres at home in mid-August, regaining some control of the division, but then Los Angeles split a series against the last-place Colorado Rockies and lost one in San Diego. The Dodgers swept the Reds, then lost two of three to the Arizona Diamondbacks, dropped three in a row to the Pirates and suffered those back-to-back walk-off losses to the Orioles.

Consistency eluded the Dodgers at a time when it felt as if every opponent was aiming for them.

Before rejoining the Dodgers ahead of the 2023 season, Rojas spent eight years with the Miami Marlins, who were continually out of the playoff race in September and found extra motivation when facing the best teams down the stretch. Those matchups functioned as their World Series.

“I think that’s the problem for those teams after winning a World Series — you’re going to have a target on your back,” Rojas said. “And it’s going to take a lot of effort for your main guys to step up every single day. And then, at the end of the regular season, you’re going to be kind of exhausted from the battle of every single day. And I think that’s why when teams get to the playoffs, they probably fall short.”

Travis d’Arnaud, now a catcher for the Los Angeles Angels, felt the same way while playing for the defending-champion Atlanta Braves in 2022. There was “a little bit more emotion” in games that otherwise didn’t mean much, he said. Teams seemed to bunt more frequently, play their infield in early and consistently line up their best relievers. Often, they’d face a starting pitcher who typically threw in the low-90s but suddenly started firing mid- to upper-90s fastballs.

“It’s just a different intensity,” said A.J. Pierzynski, the catcher for the Chicago White Sox teams that won it all in 2005 and failed to repeat in 2006. “It’s hard to quantify unless you’re playing in the games, but there’s a different intensity if you’re playing.”


BEFORE A SEASON-ENDING sweep of the Seattle Mariners, the 2025 Dodgers were dangerously close to finishing with the fewest full-season wins total of any team Friedman has overseen in these past 11 years. Friedman acknowledged that recently but added a caveat: “I’d also say that going into October, I think it’ll be the most talented team.”

It’s a belief that has fueled the Dodgers.

With Snell and Glasnow healthy, Yamamoto dialing up what was already an NL Cy Young-caliber season and Shohei Ohtani fully stretched out, the Dodgers went into the playoffs believing their rotation could carry them the way their bullpen did a year earlier. Their confidence was validated immediately. Snell allowed two baserunners through the first six innings of Game 1 of the wild-card round Tuesday night, and Yamamoto went 6⅔ innings without allowing an earned run 24 hours later.

“For us, it’s going to be our starting pitching,” Muncy said. “They’re going to set the tone.”

But an offense that has been without Smith, currently nursing a hairline fracture in his right hand, has also been clicking for a while. The Dodgers trailed only the Phillies in slugging percentage over the last three weeks of the regular season. In the Dodgers’ first two playoff games, 10 players combined to produce 28 hits. Six of them came from Mookie Betts, who began the season with an illness that caused him to lose close to 20 pounds and held a .670 OPS — 24 points below the league average — as recently as Aug. 6. Since then, he’s slashing .326/.384/.529.

His trajectory has resembled that of his team.

“We had a lot of struggles, really all year,” Betts said. “But I think we all view that as just a test to see how we would respond. And so now we’re starting to use those tests that we went through earlier to respond now and be ready now. And anything that comes our way, it can’t be worse than what we’ve already gone through.”

The Dodgers still don’t know if their bullpen will be good enough to take them through October — though Sasaki’s ninth inning Wednesday night, when he flummoxed the Reds with triple-digit fastballs and devastating splitters, certainly provided some hope — but they believe in their collective ability to navigate it.

They believe this roster is better and deeper than the championship-winning one from last fall. And, as Rojas said, they believe they “know how to flip the switch when it matters most.”

“It’s been a long year,” Muncy said. “At this point, seven months ago, we were on the other side of the world. We’ve been through a lot this year, and to end up in the spot we’re in right now — we’re in a great spot. We’re in the postseason. That’s all that matters. That’s what we’ve been saying all year. Anything can happen once you’re in October.”

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Bama’s shot at revenge, high stakes in the ACC and the 29 biggest games of Week 6

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Bama's shot at revenge, high stakes in the ACC and the 29 biggest games of Week 6

It feels like we know less about the college football landscape now than we did a month ago. Virginia is ranked, and Clemson very much isn’t. Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Texas A&M are unbeaten and ranked in the AP top six, and Texas, Alabama, Georgia and LSU are not. If you knew nothing about college football history and dove into this crazy world only this season, you would believe that Indiana, Texas Tech and Vanderbilt are three of the most elite programs in the country.

It’s into this murky world that we wade for Week 6. Last week boasted serious headliners that clarified the Big Ten’s hierarchy (Oregon over Penn State) and very much blurred the SEC’s (Bama over Georgia, Ole Miss over LSU). Week 6 doesn’t feature the same marquee matchups, but we still get Miami-Florida State, plus many games that are far bigger and better than we expected — Bama against unbeaten Vandy, Virginia against unbeaten Louisville, Texas Tech against unbeaten Houston, and Iowa State against a scorching Cincinnati.

Welcome to October. It’s hard to see where this season is taking us, but that makes the journey awfully fun. Here’s everything you need to follow in a surprising, mysterious Week 6.

All times Eastern.

Revenge time in Tuscaloosa?

No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Part of succeeding a legend is that we notice anytime you don’t live up to the legend’s standards. Granted, Kalen DeBoer has proven adept at continuing Nick Saban’s relative success against Kirby Smart’s Georgia, but DeBoer’s track record otherwise has some holes. He has already lost four games to unranked teams, as many as Saban lost in 17 years. Not great.

Saban was particularly good at putting upstarts in their place — think of Michigan State and Washington in the College Football Playoff. Or Missouri in the SEC championship game. Or Mississippi State every time the Bulldogs thought they were good. He was also good at revenge. His Crimson Tide bopped Tim Tebow’s Florida in 2009 and beat LSU by three TDs when they got a second shot at the Tigers in the 2011 BCS Championship Game. They lost to Auburn four times but won the following year by an average of 25 points.

You might remember what happened the last time Alabama played Vanderbilt.

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Vanderbilt fans storm field after historic win over Alabama

Vanderbilt hangs on for its first-ever win over a No. 1 ranked team in a thrilling 40-35 victory over Alabama.

Vandy has to go to Tuscaloosa this time, which sets up a revenge opportunity. But the Commodores are much better this time. They’re 11th in SP+, and they’re scoring 49 points per game. Diego Pavia is third nationally in Total QBR (and maybe the second-best power conference quarterback to date), completing 75% of his passes and averaging nearly 7 yards per non-sack carry. Backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young are averaging 6.9 yards per carry, tight end Eli Stowers is catching everything and receiver Junior Sherrill has scored on five of his 17 receptions.

The Commodores are combining ruthless efficiency with above-average explosiveness.

Because Vandy has so thoroughly taken care of business through five games, Pavia hasn’t had to do as much — he had taken contact 108 times through five games last year (and battled wear-and-tear issues later in the season), but he’s at only 65 hits this year. If he needs to run more in the bigger games, he can probably handle it.

The Commodores’ defense isn’t amazing, but it’s also better than it was last season. Vandy plays decent run defense with great big-play prevention against the pass; safety CJ Heard is excellent, and linebackers Bryan Longwell and Khordae Sydnor swarm well.

Alabama remains an unfinished picture. The Crimson Tide’s defense looked downright unprepared in Week 1 against Florida State, but it has allowed only 11.7 points per game since. The Crimson Tide don’t create nearly enough negative plays, but they don’t give up big plays either, and safety Bray Hubbard keys a frustrating zone defense.

The offense has been the star of the show. Ty Simpson looked disheveled against Florida State, but he has been brilliant since, and the Tide are up to sixth in points per drive despite a below-average run game. They couldn’t quite close out Georgia after a brilliant first half, but Simpson is incredibly sharp, and the offensive line has shored up a lot of its Week 1 breakdowns.

After what happened in 2024, this game is symbolically huge. But it’s also just part of a huge stretch for both teams. Alabama just took down Georgia, but five of the Tide’s next six opponents rank 17th or better in SP+. At absolute worst, they’ll need to win four of six to keep their CFP hopes alive. Meanwhile, five of Vandy’s past seven opponents are also 17th or better. Without an obvious quality win yet, they’ll probably need to win five of seven. Now would be an apt time for Bama to throw its weight around and remind everyone who’s supposed to be the boss. But based solely on 2025 to date, the Commodores might yet be the Tide’s equal.

Current line: Bama -10.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 2.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.9


A high-stakes doubleheader in the ACC

Virginia’s upset of Florida State last week damaged the hype value of one ACC matchup but heightened another. FSU hosts unbeaten Miami on Saturday evening in desperate need of a turnaround win, but the winner of the afternoon’s Virginia-Louisville game — a matchup of the teams with the second- (Louisville) and fourth-best (Virginia) ACC title odds, per SP+ — will be positioned wonderfully, too.

No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State (7:30 p.m., ABC)

In some ways, you could say that Florida State was flying a little too high. The Seminoles had been nearly perfect in 2024, manhandling Alabama and humiliating two buy-game opponents (East Texas A&M and Kent State), and they were due a bad break or two. The defense hadn’t faced a tough and efficient run game like Virginia’s (including Alabama’s), and the offense had faced barely a down of adversity. Regression ran its course in Charlottesville last Friday night, when FSU lost an early fumble, gave up an acrobatic red zone interception and saw a juggling overtime touchdown catch go incomplete by millimeters. Stuff happens.

Even in the playoff era, though, a “stuff happens” loss can wipe out your margin for error. Thanks to early-season collapses from Clemson and Florida, Miami is the last SP+ top-40 opponent on FSU’s schedule, meaning this is likely the Seminoles’ last chance at another high-visibility win.

On paper, this one’s awfully even. Miami has its own solid, physical run game like Virginia’s, one with a bit better blocking but fewer yards after contact. The Hurricanes also have Carson Beck and a passing attack that rules third downs. It’s lacking explosiveness — Beck is averaging just 11.9 yards per completion — and therefore doesn’t generate loads of easy points. But it’s an efficient attack, and FSU’s defense has allowed a few more third-and-long conversions than is preferable.

With how well Notre Dame’s offense has played since, Miami’s Week 1 defensive performance against the Fighting Irish (24 points and 5.4 yards per play allowed) looks awfully impressive. But FSU’s offense has quite a bit to offer, even with the misfires against Virginia. The Seminoles rank first in points per drive and second in yards per play. Virginia hemmed in quarterback Tommy Castellanos and forced him to throw instead of making plays on the perimeter — it’s the key to keeping a lid on a Castellanos attack — but FSU still scored 35 points in regulation and averaged 6.4 yards per play. The ceiling is high even if teams defend the Noles correctly. Gavin Sawchuk and Ousmane Kromah average a combined 5.8 yards per carry with a 59% success rate, and Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy have combined for 24 catches and 514 yards. And this is still one of the best Net YAC teams in the country.

Considering Miami took down Florida in part due to physical running, whoever generates more success in this regard could have a huge advantage.

With tackle Rueben Bain Jr. at full force and getting help from disruptors such as linebacker Mohamed Toure and nickel back Keionte Scott, Miami’s defense might be even better than Bama’s. It will land some shots, but if FSU can hold Beck and the Canes to 24 or fewer points, you have to like the Seminoles’ chances.

Current line: Miami -4.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 2.1 | FPI projection: Miami by 3.9

No. 24 Virginia at Louisville (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)

What’s Virginia’s reward for winning a big game against an explosive Florida State offense? A big game against an explosive Louisville offense! Granted, Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss is more of an efficiency player, but wideout Chris Bell has big-play potential, and if or when the Louisville running back corps is healthy, look out. Isaac Brown and Duke Watson have battled injury, and they’ve combined for only 56 carries this year, but Brown is averaging 8.1 yards per carry (6.1 after contact!), and Watson averaged 8.9 in 2024.

Brown and Watson should be as close to full speed Saturday as they’ve been all year, and that’s good because Louisville has played against two SP+ top-50 defenses and averaged just 4.8 yards per play against them. The defense has improved a bit after slippage in recent years, thanks mostly to a pass rush led by star transfers Clev Lubin and Wesley Bailey, but for the Cardinals to live up to growing expectations, the run game will need to shift into gear.

Virginia, meanwhile, has already exceeded expectations. Obliterated them. Blown them to smithereens.

The transfer portal provides miracles for some teams each year and disaster for others, and it smiled on the Cavaliers with the potent additions of quarterback Chandler Morris, running back J’Mari Taylor, receivers Cam Ross and Jahmal Edrine and about 10 new rotation defenders, including star edge rushers Mitchell Melton and Daniel Rickert and nickel back Ja’son Prevard. The defense allows too many big plays and has allowed touchdowns on 80% of opponents’ red zone trips (125th nationally), and that was costly in a Week 2 loss to NC State. But the Hoos rule third downs on offense and defense, and that will take you pretty far. UVA has won more than eight games in a season just once in 17 years, but SP+ says there’s a 57% chance of at least a 9-3 finish. What a world.

Current line: Louisville -6.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 9.2 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.4


This week in the Big 12

Five weeks into the 2024 season, we thought we had a decent read on the Big 12. BYU and Iowa State were still unbeaten, and Kansas State and Utah were 4-1 and looking good. Per SP+, those four teams had about a two-in-three chance of winning the conference. Arizona was 3-1 and hoping to make a run. 3-2 Oklahoma State and 3-1 Arizona State had equal long shot odds.

But the conference had all sorts of surprises in store. Utah lost seven games in a row, and Kansas State lost three of four down the stretch. Arizona and OSU went a combined 1-14 the rest of the way, while Arizona State transformed into a top-10 caliber team in November and won the conference title.

We probably don’t know anything about this conference race yet, in other words, no matter how much it feels like we do. Texas Tech has looked spectacular in its first four games, and Iowa State, BYU, Utah and Arizona State are all positioned pretty well. But Week 6 sends the top two favorites on the road against upstarts and offers a few teams with early losses a chance to get right and stay in the race. We have some plot-twist opportunities for a conference that loves nothing more than delivering them.

No. 11 Texas Tech at Houston (7 p.m., ESPN)

Texas Tech has been genuinely awesome this season, walloping three bad teams as an elite team should and then physically manhandling Utah in Salt Lake City two weeks ago. They’ve been awesome at pretty much everything — they’re fifth in yards per play on offense and defense — and aside from a predilection for penalties and some injury-prone tendencies for quarterback Behren Morton, we don’t really know their weaknesses yet.

Houston’s a little bit easier to figure out. Defense: good. Offense: not so much. The Cougars are ninth in yards per play allowed and are very much in the best quadrant of this chart.

Willie Fritz lost defensive coordinator Shiel Wood to Tech, but the UH defense has been even better with replacement Austin Armstrong. But the Conner Weigman-led offense remains a work in progress. The Coogs go three-and-out nearly 39% of the time (124th), and that will probably be their downfall in this one. But if the defense sets up some easy scoring opportunities, this one quickly moves into “upset watch” territory.

Current line: Tech -10.5 (down from -12.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Tech by 13.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.0

No. 14 Iowa State at Cincinnati (noon, ESPN2)

If you combined Cincinnati’s offense with Houston’s defense, you’d have a potential top-10 team. Last Saturday’s 37-34 win at Kansas inserted the Bearcats into the Big 12 title conversation. We’ll see if the Bearcats have the defensive chops to remain a factor — their run defense is strong thanks in part to star tackle Dontay Corleone (who’s as questionable this week), but they’re 136th, last nationally, in completion rate allowed. But quarterback Brendan Sorsby is on a roll, and Cincy ranks first nationally in rushing success rate. Track meets could work out well for the Bearcats.

Iowa State is not a track meet team. The Cyclones have allowed more than 16 points just once in five games, but they’ve also topped 24 only twice. ISU runs a lot on first down but doesn’t get very far, so quarterback Rocco Becht has to convert a lot of third downs. He usually pulls it off, though, either with deep shots to Brett Eskildsen and Chase Sowell or passes to any of four tight ends.

The ISU defense is strong once again. The Cyclones rarely invade the backfield, but Domonique Orange occupies space up front (he’s listed as probable this week), and they tackle well, prevent big plays and pounce on mistakes. Sorsby hasn’t made many mistakes lately, though.

Current line: Cincy -1.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 3.2 | FPI projection: ISU by 0.3

Kansas State at Baylor (noon, ESPN+)

Kansas State suffered a three-week funk after losing to Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland, but quarterback Avery Johnson just enjoyed, by far, his best game of the season, and RB Dylan Edwards is finally healthy. The Wildcats still have only one conference loss, but their next four games — at Baylor, TCU, at Kansas, Texas Tech — will require a sustained A-game. Sawyer Robertson and the prolific Bears also have one conference loss and could easily stay in the conversation with a strong performance.

Current line: Baylor -6.5 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 3.4 | FPI projection: Baylor by 2.6

Kansas at UCF (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)

UCF makes a lot of big plays but can’t keep a quarterback healthy and missed a solid upset opportunity with a poor performance at Kansas State last week. With last week’s defeat to Cincinnati, meanwhile, Kansas has dropped eight of its past nine one-score finishes since late 2023. Iowa State weathered a similar streak recently before flipping that script, and if KU does the same, it’s not too late to get into the race. It’s now or never, though.

Current line: Kansas -4.5 | SP+ projection: Kansas by 1.2 | FPI projection: Kansas by 1.5


A CFP eliminator of sorts

Boise State at No. 21 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC)

Last week was great and terrible for Notre Dame. On one hand, the Fighting Irish looked spectacular in making Arkansas quit in a 56-13 road blowout. The offense is improving rapidly, and CJ Carr is quickly becoming one of the nation’s best quarterbacks. Meanwhile, despite injuries to star corner Leonard Moore and tackle Donovan Hinish, among others, the defense finally showed some life after a poor start to 2025. Notre Dame is the projected favorite in every remaining game.

On the other hand, the Irish’s potential CFP résumé, should they win out and get to 10-2, took a hit. USC’s loss to Illinois hurt their potential for a top-10 win, and four other upcoming opponents all lost. It will be difficult for the Irish to stand out in a pile of two-loss teams, even if they deliver blowouts.

The blowouts must continue regardless. And we’ll see how that goes against a Boise State team that has shifted nicely into gear. The running back trio of Sire Gaines, Dylan Riley and Malik Sherrod combined for 190 yards from scrimmage last week against Appalachian State, while Maddux Madsen threw for 321 yards and four touchdowns. The pass rush, led by Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Braxton Fely, delivered five sacks. The Mountain West has a growing number of potential contenders this season — UNLV, Fresno State, perhaps New Mexico or San Diego State — but the Broncos still lead the pack.

Under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame has been either ridiculously rude or ridiculously accommodating to aspirational Group of 5 opponents. The Irish fell 26-21 to Marshall in 2022 and, famously, 16-14 to Northern Illinois last year, but they also pummeled excellent Army and Navy teams last fall. Boise State has looked like Boise State since the demoralizing Week 1 dud against South Florida, and an upset here would push the Broncos back to the top of the pile in the Group of 5. Both of these teams have big-play capabilities, plus defenses that have been a little too willing to give up a chunk play or two. Let’s see if BSU can keep up with an increasingly ruthless Notre Dame attack.

Current line: Irish -20.5 (up from -17.5) | SP+ projection: Irish by 13.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 18.8


Week 6 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Houston’s overtime win over Oregon State cost us a fourth win in five tries — how could you do that to us, Coogs? — but 3-for-5 is still pretty good.

Going 4-for-6 is even better, though. SP+ tells us there’s only a 55% chance that Nebraska (81% win probability against Michigan State), Illinois (85% over Purdue), Michigan (88% over Wisconsin) and Ohio State (90% over Minnesota) all win. It’s time to take down a Big Ten favorite.


Week 6 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

West Virginia at No. 23 BYU (10:30 p.m., ESPN). I’m sticking this one in the Playlist instead of the Big 12 section above because of the larger point spread. BYU overcame a poor performance to remain unbeaten against Colorado, and the Cougars could probably withstand another iffy game this weekend. But it feels like a race to get quarterback Bear Bachmeier — 48th in Total QBR, 51st in yards per dropback — ready for an epic run of high-stakes Big 12 games on the horizon.

Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 22.4 | FPI projection: BYU by 23.5

New Mexico at San José State (10 p.m., FS1). I’m not sure anyone in college football is having more fun than New Mexico.

The Lobos frustrated Michigan, stomped UCLA and beat rival New Mexico State for the Chile Roaster trophy. Now, with trips to San José and Boise in the next two weeks, we find out if this is a fun bowl push or a fun Mountain West title push.

Current line: SJSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNM by 1.0 | FPI projection: UNM by 0.9

Early Saturday

Clemson at North Carolina (noon, ESPN). One of the most noteworthy ACC games in the preseason — Dabo Swinney’s top-five Clemson versus Bill Belichick’s North Carolina! — still packs intrigue, but it’s mostly negative. Clemson has lost to all three of its power-conference opponents, and UNC has lost to two by a combined 82-23. Clemson likely has too much talent for the Heels, but, well, that hasn’t stopped the Tigers from playing like they have thus far.

Current line: Clemson -14.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 7.7 | FPI projection: Clemson by 8.3

No. 22 Illinois at Purdue (noon, BTN). Illinois responded well to its humiliation at Indiana two weeks ago, beating USC in a nailbiter in Champaign. Now comes a different kind of test. Purdue has a spry passing game and an aggressive (if spectacularly dysfunctional) defense, and if the Illini are caught looking ahead to next week’s Ohio State game, the Boilermakers could land some punches.

Current line: Illinois -9.5 | SP+ projection: Illinois by 16.7 | FPI projection: Illinois by 7.0

Kentucky at No. 12 Georgia (noon, ABC). Kentucky nearly beat Georgia last season before the wheels totally fell off in Lexington, but four games into 2025, the Wildcats still haven’t put the wheels back on. This is a get-right opportunity for Kirby Smart’s surprisingly mediocre (by their standards) Dawgs before Ole Miss visits in two weeks.

Current line: UGA -20.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 17.4 | FPI projection: UGA by 17.0

Wisconsin at No. 20 Michigan (noon, Fox). Michigan is a week away from a huge trip to USC, but the Wolverines must first handle a Wisconsin team that has just continued to fall into further depths. Badgers quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. should finally be near full strength, which can’t hurt, but they have just been lifeless this year.

Current line: Michigan -17.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 18.8 | FPI projection: Michigan by 15.8

Air Force at Navy (noon, CBS). Air Force might have found its next awesome option quarterback in sophomore Liam Szarka. Unfortunately, the Falcons’ defense has allowed at least 44 points against all three of its FBS opponents. Will that matter or will this become the typical battle of attrition that service-academy rivalry games frequently become?

Current line: Navy -12.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 18.7 | FPI projection: Navy by 13.2

Saturday afternoon

No. 9 Texas at Florida (3:30 p.m., ESPN). I wouldn’t have guessed this one would be relegated to the Playlist, but here we are. Florida’s defense is excellent and could absolutely frustrate Arch Manning & Co., but the Gators have scored 33 points in three games against FBS opponents, and Texas has the best defense in the country, per SP+. It’s hard to think of anything else mattering beyond that.

Current line: Texas -6.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 9.9 | FPI projection: Texas by 7.8

Washington at Maryland (3:30 p.m., BTN). On Christmas Day in 1982, Washington’s Tim Cowan outdueled Maryland’s Boomer Esiason, throwing for 369 yards and three touchdowns — including the game winner with six seconds left — as the Huskies won a 21-20 Aloha Bowl thriller. I just listed the entire football history between these two new conference mates.

Current line: UW -6.5 | SP+ projection: Maryland by 1.6 | FPI projection: UW by 0.5

Michigan State at Nebraska (4 p.m., FS1). Michigan State’s Aidan Chiles and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola have made nice strides this season, but only Raiola is getting help from his defense. Can Chiles, receiver Omari Kelly and the Spartans’ offense suck the Huskers into a track meet or is the NU pass defense — first nationally in yards per dropback — too much?

Current line: Nebraska -11.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 13.7 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 13.1

No. 7 Penn State at UCLA (3:30 p.m., CBS). Penn State should get back on track after last week’s frustrating loss to Oregon, but I’m highlighting this game primarily to point out that, per SP+, UCLA is a projected underdog of at least 16 points in every remaining game and has a 61% chance of finishing 0-12. It was easy to see this season perhaps not going well, but wow.

Current line: PSU -25.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 32.5 | FPI projection: PSU by 20.2

Kent State at No. 5 Oklahoma (4 p.m., SECN). OK, yes, OU will win by a lot. But with John Mateer out because of injury, we’ll get a look at how backup Michael Hawkins Jr. runs the Ben Arbuckle offense and what kind of chance the Sooners might have against Texas next week.

Current line: OU -45.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 48.0 | FPI projection: OU by 46.3

Saturday evening

Mississippi State at No. 6 Texas A&M (7:30 p.m., SECN). Texas A&M nearly suffered a “stuff happens” loss last week, dominating Auburn statistically but winning by only 6, but the Aggies remain unbeaten and are projected favorites in the next three games. This one’s interesting, though. A&M makes and allows big plays, while Mississippi State, having already played in two down-to-the-wire finishes with more to come, makes and allows few.

Current line: A&M -14.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 4.9 | FPI projection: A&M by 9.0

Minnesota at No. 1 Ohio State (7:30 p.m., NBC). Ohio State faced one of the best offensive teams in the country (to date) last week at Washington and brushed the Huskies aside with relative ease. Now, the Buckeyes face one of the most reliably solid defenses in the country. Minnesota tackles well and generates loads of negative plays, which will provide Julian Sayin & Co. with a different type of test. I’m guessing they’ll ace this one too.

Current line: OSU -23.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 20.7 | FPI projection: OSU by 23.1

Colorado at TCU (7:30 p.m., Fox). As with BYU, TCU is a Big 12 contender facing a theoretically easier challenge this year. Granted, all three of Colorado’s losses were by one score, and the Buffaloes could score an upset or two down the stretch (especially with more stable QB play). But TCU should control the line of scrimmage in this one and move to 4-1.

Current line: TCU -13.5 (down from -15.5) | SP+ projection: TCU by 12.4 | FPI projection: TCU by 9.0

UNLV at Wyoming (7 p.m., CBSSN). UNLV is unbeaten and has scored at least 30 points in every game; the Rebels’ defense, however, is dreadful, especially against the run. Wyoming backs Samuel Harris and Sam Scott are both strong yards-after-contact players, and the Cowboys might have a shot at making this one awkward for an ambitious conference rival.

Current line: UNLV -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: UNLV by 4.9 | FPI projection: UNLV by 6.6

Late Saturday

Duke at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Washington-Maryland feels like the most geographically ridiculous conference game of the week, but this one isn’t much better. It’s a pretty big one, though, with the teams a combined 3-0 in ACC play. Duke’s offense (31st in points per drive) facing Cal’s defense (29th) could be appointment viewing. Cal’s offense (86th) against Duke’s defense (99th), not so much.

Current line: Duke -2.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 6.1 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.9

Nevada at Fresno State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). Since a poor Week 0 performance against Kansas, Fresno State is unbeaten. Plus, the Bulldogs are projected underdogs in only one remaining game, meaning they’re Mountain West contenders until proven otherwise. Nevada doesn’t have much to offer, but the Wolf Pack have a randomly explosive run game with backs Herschel Turner and Caleb Ramseur.

Current line: Fresno -13.5 | SP+ projection: Fresno by 18.9 | FPI projection: Fresno by 14.7


Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

FCS: Yale at No. 8 Lehigh (noon, ESPN+). We’re looking at a ferocious Ivy League race among Harvard (fourth in FCS SP+), Yale (10th) and Dartmouth (18th) — one that has FCS playoff implications because the Ivy is sending a team now. But first, Yale gets a huge nonconference showdown with a Lehigh team that has won 11 of its past 12 games thanks, in part, to backs Luke Yoder and Jaden Green (combined: 207.2 rushing yards per game) and a ferocious and diverse pass rush.

SP+ projection: Lehigh by 1.8.

Division III: No. 5 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 10 Wisconsin-Whitewater (2 p.m., local streaming). It’s the first weekend of one of college football’s most exciting conference races: the WIAC, which has four of the top 11 teams in Division III, based on SP+. Two of them meet Saturday. Whitewater has dominated this series through most of the 2000s, but La Crosse, led by prolific quarterback Kyle Haas, has won the past two games.

SP+ projection: UWW by 6.4.

Division II: No. 9 UT Permian Basin at No. 5 Angelo State (7 p.m., FloCollege). Angelo State is unbeaten and averaging 39 points per game this season behind backs Cameron Dischler and Jayden Jones and a relentless, deep run game. UTPB? Also unbeaten and averaging 38.8 points per game thanks to quarterback Kanon Gibson and a prolific passing game. Track meet: likely.

SP+ projection: Angelo State by 7.6.

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Source: LaCombe extension richest ever for Ducks

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Source: LaCombe extension richest ever for Ducks

The Anaheim Ducks have locked up defenseman Jackson LaCombe, a key part of their rebuilding team, on an eight-year contract extension, the team announced Thursday.

The deal carries a $9 million average annual value, a source told ESPN on Thursday, the same AAV as the deal defenseman Luke Hughes signed with the New Jersey Devils on Wednesday, although that was on a seven-year term.

LaCombe’s contract is the largest ever given out by the Ducks and will begin in the 2026-27 season and end in 2033-34. He has one year left on a two-year bridge deal ($925,000 AAV) that he signed in 2024.

Anaheim general manager Pat Verbeek said extending LaCombe was “a priority” for the team and that the young defenseman has “all of the tools to be an anchor on our back end for many years to come.”

“Both sides were looking at long-term deals, so I think it came together pretty quickly,” Verbeek said after the Ducks’ practice in Irvine, California. “What we’re all trying to gauge the landscape of where salaries are going [with the future NHL salary cap], so I feel really comfortable with the contract and the character of Jackson LaCombe. And the player, and I still think there’s lots of upside and growth in his game. I think the best is still to come from Jackson.”

LaCombe, 24, was selected No. 39 in the 2019 NHL draft. He has 60 points in 148 NHL games, with a career-best 14 goals and 29 assists in 75 games last season for the Ducks as he formed an effective pairing with bruising veteran defenseman Radko Gudas.

LaCombe said it was an “easy decision” to go long term in Anaheim.

“I love it here,” LaCombe said. “I love being here. I love playing here. I love all my teammates here, too, so for me it was an easy decision. … It’s easy to live here. You could say the weather [is a positive] and the place is so nice, but just the group we have has been great for me. Everybody has been so welcoming for the last two years, so I’m grateful for that and I’m just excited to be here for a long time.”

A Minnesota alum, LaCombe was invited to the U.S. men’s Olympic orientation camp, putting him in contention for a spot on the 2026 men’s hockey team that will contend for gold in Italy. LaCombe helped the U.S. win gold at the 2025 world championships — the Americans’ first gold at the event in 92 years.

LaCombe is the first player to re-sign in the Ducks’ large class of restricted free agents coming up next summer. He was slated to be an RFA alongside center Leo Carlsson, left wing Cutter Gauthier and defensemen Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov.

“Jackson is the first domino to fall, and we’re working on other stuff as well,” Verbeek said.

Overall, LaCombe is the second big signing for Verbeek in the past week. The Ducks and restricted free agent center Mason McTavish agreed to a six-year, $42 million extension Saturday, ending a contentious negotiation that kept him out of training camp.

Anaheim is seeking its first playoff berth since 2018.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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